A new urban paradigm pathways to sustainable development

Iraq, Pakistan, Syria and Yemen as well as
the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Nigeria and South Africa. The data
visualisation suggests that there are at
least as many cities ranking high on the
fragility scale (scoring 3–4) in high- and
upper-middle-income settings as in
lower-middle- and low-incomes ones.
Third, fragile cities are not confined to
countries wrecked by armed conflict. There
were roughly 40 war-affected (UCDP 2016)
and 33 fragile states in 2015. 5 There is little
doubt that cities in countries such as Iraq,
South Sudan or Syria are especially at risk
of instability. But cities in these countries
are not the only ones at high risk.
Fourth, it is not necessarily the largest
cities that are most susceptible to fragility.
Rather, it is smaller and medium-sized
cities that are most at risk. The data
visualisation demonstrates that just three
megacities (over 10 million people) and
three very large cities (with between 5
and 10 million people) are at high risk of
fragility (3–4 on the scale). These include
Baghdad, Dar es Salaam, Johannesburg,
Karachi, Lagos and Shanghai. But there
are another 56 large cities (1–5 million
people), 42 medium cities (500,000–
1 million people) and 40 smaller cities
(250,000–500,000 people) that are
classified as ‘fragile’.
Fifth, the fastest growing cities appear
to be especially vulnerable to fragility.
Most cities around the world are growing
at between 0 and 3 per cent. The data
visualisation detects 87 cities—most of
them in the rust belt of the USA, in the
UK, France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine
and parts of China—that are shrinking
in size (Igarapé Institute 2016). Yet the
most-at-risk cities are those that are
growing at a pace of 4 per cent or more.
The risks are especially prominent
in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle
East and South and East Asia, where
the vast majority of future city
population growth is projected.
Sixth, the most violent cities in the
world are not where you think they are.
While some research organisations rank
cities according to homicide rates, their
assessments are often heavily biased due
to variations in reporting (Economist 2016).
The fragile cities data visualisation tracks
BOX 1: Fragile city metrics: coverage and sources
Population growth: Speed of population growth over a 10-year interval.
Data available for 1,666 cities from UN DESA, with the other 434
supplemented with national urban data from the World Bank.
The information is available for all cities.
Unemployment rate: Extent of unemployment as share of total labour force.
Available for 1,627 cities, including from the OECD and America Economia,
of which 842 were supplemented with national data from the ILO and CEPAL.
There are 473 cities for which no data are available from any source.
Income inequality: The category is measured by the Gini coefficient: the
distance in income between the highest and lowest quintiles of the city
population. It is available for 1,769 cities from UN-Habitat. Of these, 1,105
cities have information from a range of national statistics office sources.
There are no data available for 331 cities from any source.
Access to services: The accessibility to services is measured using a proxy:
the proportion of the population with access to electricity (other variables
such as sanitation, toilets, floor quality of houses lack adequate coverage).
Electricity coverage is available for all 2,100 cities from UN-Habitat and the
World Bank (African cities). The information is available for a small sample
of cities, and the values of 1,965 cities come from urban national averages
from the World Bank.
Air quality: Annual mean concentrations of air quality (particulate matter
of less than 2.5 microns) are recorded by the WHO. Data are available for
1,883 cities, while 1,047 of these cities were ascribed a ‘city average’ for the
country. There are 217 cities for which no data are available from any source.
Homicide rate: The prevalence of intentional homicide per 100,000 in a given
city population is available from the Homicide Monitor. Specific city data are
available for just 469 cities. The remaining 1,631 cities are not included.
Political violence: The intensity of reported ‘violent’ events on the basis
of a big data-mining system of 1,000 media outlets from around the world
collected by GDELT. Information is available for 1,529 cities using an algorithm
developed by Igarapé Institute. There are no data available for 571 cities.
Terrorist killings: The registered incidents of terrorist-related killings based
on lethal violence due to declared ideological motivations collected by
GTD. Information is available for all 2,100 cities on the basis of an algorithm
developed by the Igarapé Institute.
Exposure to natural hazards: At-risk cities were determined by calculating
exposure to natural disaster categories—cyclones, droughts and floods—
over a population grid, with primary data supplied by SEDAC and CIESIN
of the Earth Institute. Igarapé Institute established data for 1,968 cities.
There are no data for 132 cities.
National fragility: The countries ranked as ‘fragile’ using the World Bank
CPIA score and the presence of an international or regional peacekeeping
operation. This accounts for 33 specific countries in 2016, according to
the World Bank.
National armed conflicts: The countries in which there is an ongoing ‘armed
conflict’, itself defined as an ‘armed incompatibility’ involving armed forces
of two or more parties of which one is a government. There are 40 conflicts
as of 2015, according to UCDP.
Source: Igarapé Institute (2016).
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