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1. Develop an Appreciation for Truth
I could not develop as a realistic thinker until I gained an appreciation for realistic thinking. And that means
learning to look at and enjoy truth. President Harry S. Truman said, “I never give ’em hell. I just tell the truth and
they think it is hell.” That’s the way many people react to truth. People tend to exaggerate their success and
minimize their failures or deficiencies. They live according to Ruckert’s Law, believing there is nothing so small
that it can’t be blown out of proportion.
Unfortunately, many people today could be described by a quote from Winston Churchill: “Men occasionally
stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing has happened.” More recently,
television journalist Ted Koppel observed, “Our society finds truth too strong a medicine to digest undiluted. In
its purest form, truth is not a polite tap on the shoulder. It is a howling reproach.” In other words, the truth will set
you free—but first it will make you angry! If you want to become a realistic thinker, however, you need to get
comfortable dealing with the truth and face up to it.
2. Do Your Homework
The process of realistic thinking begins with doing your homework. You must first get the facts. Former
governor, congressman, and ambassador Chester Bowles said, “When you approach a problem, strip yourself
of preconceived opinions and prejudice, assemble and learn the facts of the situation, make the decision which
seems to you to be the most honest, and then stick to it.” It doesn’t matter how sound your thinking is if it’s
based on faulty data or assumptions. You can’t think well in the absence of facts (or in the presence of poor
information).
You can also find out what others have done in similar circumstances. Remember, your thinking doesn’t
necessarily have to be original; it just has to be solid. Why not learn all that you can from good thinkers who
have faced similar situations in the past? Some of my best thinking has been done by others!
3. Think Through the Pros and Cons
There’s nothing like taking the time to really examine the pros and cons of an issue to give you a strong
dose of reality. It rarely comes down to simply choosing the course of action with the greatest number of pros,
because all pros and cons do not carry equal weight. But that’s not the value of the exercise, anyway. Rather, it
helps you to dig into the facts, examine an issue from many angles, and really count the cost of a possible
course of action.
4. Picture the Worst-Case Scenario
The essence of realistic thinking is discovering, picturing, and examining the worst-case scenario. Ask
yourself questions such as:
What if sales fall short of projections?
What if revenue hits rock bottom? (Not an optimist’s rock bottom, but real rock bottom!)
What if we don’t win the account?
What if the client doesn’t pay us?
What if we have to do the job short-handed?
What if our best player gets sick?
What if all the colleges reject my application?
What if the market goes belly up?
What if the volunteers quit?
What if nobody shows up?
You get the idea. The point is that you need to think about worst-case possibilities whether you are running
a business, leading a department, pastoring a church, coaching a team, or planning your personal finances.