BusinessDay 19 Sep 2017

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etary, y. .com Tuesday 19 September 2017 10 BUSINESS DAY C002D5556 COMMENT MAZI SAM OHUABUNWA OFR Ohuabunwa is chairman, African Centre for Business Development, Strategy Innovation (ACBDSI). STRATEGY & POLICY comment is free Send 800word comments to comment@businessdayonline.com The military stokes the fire in the South East It is heart-wrenching to watch this country walk into preventable cataclysm. A nation that has one war in its hand seems to be courting another. I am amazed. A nation that is talking about unity is persisting in promoting disunity. A nation that wants peace, is shedding innocent blood ceaselessly. I do not know what to make of these incongruences. Yes, the military can decide to carry out military exercises, but it must be carried out within the ambit of the law. The military is assigned to protect the country against external aggression or called in to maintain internal peace, when there is internal aggression or insurrection and the police is overwhelmed. Yes, there is a spike in crime rate in Nigeria, especially violent crimes of armed robbery and kidnapping and the Nigerian Police is proving incapable. Many people have recommended how to make policing effective in Nigeria but much of these have fallen on deaf ears. So in cases where the police is overwhelmed by violent crimes, it may be understandable if the military is called in once in a while to help the Police. And I believe this is already happening in the country as we see the military all over the place manning checkpoints and doing sundry police duties. But when the Nigerian Army announced recently that it was embarking on a military exercise it called Egwu Eke 2( Python Dance 2) in the South East and included in its objectives, curtailment of secessionist agitations, my heart skipped a beat. I smelt a rat. What is the military about to start? Have the political leaders who authorized the exercise considered the repercussions? Setting out the army to curtail the secessionist agitators at this time for what reason? Who are these? Is there no difference between secession and selfdetermination? As much as we know, the agitators for Biafra called by IPOB and led by Nnamdi Kanu are not armed. Since Kanu was released on bail, they have not been holding street marches or demonstrations, except for a few rallies which are acceptable in a free democratic society. They As much as we know, the agitators for Biafra called by IPOB and led by Nnamdi Kanu are not armed. Since Kanu was released on bail, they have not been holding street marches or demonstrations, except for a few rallies which are acceptable in a free democratic society have attacked no one physically. They have insisted on self determination asking for referendum to validate their quest.The only attack they do is verbal, against anybody who opposes their agitation or their method. Many leading Igbo including the President-General of Ohaneze, Chief Nnia Nwodo and the Chairman of Alaigbo Development Foundation (ADF) Board of Trustees, Dr. Dozie Ikedife have been verbally attacked severally by IPOB. Even some of the South East Governors have been verbally assaulted. The constitution has sufficient safeguards for those who feel verbally abused. Using the military to go and harass and kill verbal abusers is not one of them. Then the military decides to begin their python dance by going to the home of Nnamdi Kanu and his parents to demonstrate their serpentine dance steps. Nnamdi Kanu and his IPOB were not marching on the street, they were not protesting, they were not blocking the streets or causing any nuisance to other people. How far can the army go to stock the fire? It is a big shame that Nigeria’s military went to Nnamdi’s place to taunt him, to provoke him and to lure him into battle. I do not know how any well meaning Nigerian can justify or defend this brazen,reckless and incendiary behavior of the army in Umuahia last week. As would be expected, the gambit of the military worked. The IPOB people were incensed and they began to rally to the ‘defence’ of their leader in Umuahia. And then, they ran into the ambush of the military in Oyigbo, Aba town, Aba-Owerri Road, PH- Enugu Expressway, Umuahia and elsewhere and the trouble escalated with so many people allegedly killed, some gruesomely, some injured and some assets burned including worship places. Shops were shut and innocent people began to run helter skelter, reminiscent of a war situation. Journalists were intimidated and the NUJ office in Abia was vandalized so that the world will not know the mayhem that has been visited on Abia Defending the nation’s food industry State. Abia State Governor imposed a curfew in Aba. As we write, the entire south East and parts of Rivers state have been swamped by the military . There is a security check every half a kilometer from PH to Enugu and Pedestrians are asked to raise their hands while crossing the check points. Sometimes, occupants in vehicles are subjected to the same humiliation. As we drove past these stern looking soldiers last week, my driver quipped ‘It looks as if the 2nd Biafran war has started?” I responded that I hoped not but that the signs were ominous. I do not know who are the beneficiaries of the events of last week in Abia state. May be the military commanders or the civilian political leaders who authorized the invasion. Certainly not the peace and unity of Nigeria. I can confidently announce to those who want the unity and indivisibility of Nigeria that this method will never work. Repression of the cry for Justice and freedom has never worked anywhere in the World. Unity by force of arms will not endure. Enduring unity is built and nurtured. It is my wish and prayer that Nigeria’s political leadership rethinks this dangerous approach. Send reactions to: comment@businessdayonline. MA JOHNSON Johnson is a marine project management consultant and Chartered Engineer. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology, UK. From the moment man came into existence, he was kept in the garden of splendour and abundance by his creator. The land which is a factor of production with its abundant resources was to be used by man for his pleasure. This is so, because the creator directed at the inception of the world that man should cultivate the land, have dominion over it, and take command of all earthly and aquatic creatures. By implication, neither man nor land/sea was designed to be idle or unoccupied. There is bound to be food crisis when man is idle, and land/sea is uncultivated. And if man does not occupy the land/sea with appropriate technology, he may have less food to eat. Clearly, any nation that cannot feed its citizens is vulnerable to external manipulations and pressures. That is why for centuries, agriculture has been acknowledged as the foundation of civilization and stable economy in most nations. Agriculture is not only the production of crop as popular belief holds, it is about the production of food and fiber from the world’s land and waters. Globally, statistics from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, show two facts which should not be true: Firstly, there is sufficient food produced in the world every year to feed every human being in the world; and secondly, nearly 815 million people literally go hungry every day with more than a third of the earth’s population- 2.5 billion men and women malnourished one way or another. In the case of Nigeria and its numerous resources, it is unbelievable that there is low food production when actually the population is rising. Certainly, this uninspiring report creates fears of food insecurity in the country. When it was published recently that the “Federal Government (FG) targets US$ 8.0 billion forex earning annually from yam exports”, I thought Nigeria is self-sufficient in food production., and thus, I jumped for joy. The justification for this policy was that if Ghana could export yam, why can’t Nigeria do same. Although, Nigerian farmers have begun registration for yam exports according to re- ports, Iam aware that yam pounding machines are made in Japan. The flow of my earlier thoughts on food sufficiency was arrested when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently released its Q2 2017 report which reflects that food inflation rose to 20.28percent as against 19.91 percent due to increase in prices of bread, meat, fish, oil, potatoes, yam and other tubers and vegetables. One may then ask: why is the price of these basic food items rising? Some experts believe it is either due to high demand for food or that the nation is not producing enough. I don’t believe that the demand for food is high because there aren’t much funds in circulation despite the reduction in inflation to 16.01 percent in August 2017. Like one analyst puts it, that there is no way a recession can end without increase in consumer demand. I agree. And that is why methinks that food inflation is rising not because there is increase in demand by consumers but due to Nigeria’s inability to produce enough. It is a sensible pursuit when a nation develops its agricultural sector such that it will in the end contribute significantly to real wealth and joy for the people. This has compelled most nations to make effort to discover and develop their agricultural sector as a first step towards a civilized life. The citizens of a nation cannot be healthy, happy and peaceful if there is insufficient supply of food. It is for this reason that our nation’s food industry needs to be defended at all cost. It is to allay fears that there is likelihood of food insecurity in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria. For several years, any food item produced in Nigeria is not sufficient to meet the demands of the people. That was why when the FG says in November 2015 that it will not spend the sum of N1.0 trillion to import agricultural products to meet local demands, it sounds good. But I requested in this column to know what the FG will do to provide food security for about 180 million people in order to cover the gap to be created by the ban on imported agricultural products? In a serialized article titled Innovation: Complex but Inevitable, which was presented in this column in 2015, I wanted to know if the FG planned to embark on agricultural research in order to add value to existing locally produced crops so that they could be consumed and also exported? The question was raised because agricultural research in many African economies including Nigeria has limited capacity for meeting priority needs such as boosting productivity of food crops, adding value to agricultural products through postharvest processing and ensuring sustainable use of land resources for farming. That is why the overall level of knowledge employed in the agricultural sector remains low in many African countries including Nigeria.Another reason is that agriculture is not living up to its potential as an engine of economic growth. A lot is currently being done by the Minister of Agriculture but there is room for improvement. Activities in the agricultural sector must be backed up by an agrarian revolution to increase food production. Throughout history, agrarian revolution is usually the indication of industrial revolution. It is the responsibility of the FG to ensure that industrial and technological bases of the country are strengthened to support food production. Efforts must be made to ensure that our farmers farm all-year-round, with the farmers being provided seed varieties to increase yield/hectare to produce enough food for our population. The FGmust continuously intervene by paying more attention to improving storage and value chain in the food industry. If the nation doesn’t improve road networks, build more dams and ensure they are working to support irrigation farming, encourage mechanized farming, Nigeria may continue to export yam while importing same from abroad. Send reactions to: comment@businessdayonline.com
Tuesday 19 September 2017 COMMENT RAFIQ RAJI Raji is a principal at Macroafricaintel Invest- ment Limited, an Africa-focused macro research and investment consultancy based in Lagos, Nigeria. He was previously an Africa economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London, United Kingdom The South African Reserve Bank (SARB), whose monetary policy committee (MPC) meets this week (19-21 September), has proved to be quite aggressive in protecting its independence. After successfully fending off an attempt by the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, an ombudsman, it has gone on the attack; lest its detractors in the government and elswhere begin to think an assault on its constitutionally mandated role will not be without consequences. In a court affidavit filed recently (11 September), the SARB accuses the ombudsman of conspiring with the office of Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s president, and the State Security Agency (SSA), the domestic spy agency,in deciding on her recommendation that the central bank add the promotion of “balanced and sustainable economic growth” and protection of “the socio-economic well-being comment is free South Africa: All about political risk of the citizens” to its primary mandate of inflation targeting and protecting the rand.A High Court set aside her instructions in August. More important is what this latest action by the SARB implies. It clearly does not think those seeking to hamper its independence are about to give up. Unsurprisingly, Moody’s, a credit rating agency, has highlighted the matter as a key risk to the country’s rating. But that is just one dimension of a cocktail of political risks in South Africa at the moment. Dirty tricks Of greater consequence momentarily, is the upcoming elective conference of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party in December. Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s deputy president and one of the two leading contenders for the party’s presidency, who incidentally is alsothe preferred candidate bymarket participants, is beginning to face assaults of his own. It was recently revealed he had numerous extra-marital affairs. Why his detractors thought this would undermine his chances is somewhat curious: President Zuma has survived scandal upon scandal in this regard; that is, even as he has numerous wives. In Mr Ramaphosa’s case, though, the revelations were meant to demystify him amongst whites, who incidentally dominate the affluent business community. More importantly, it speaks to the extent that parties to a very high stakes elective conference would go to Fuel prices continue to be sensitive to a resurgent international crude oil market, though, rising by at least 3 percent in September. Annual consumer inflation which came out at 4.6 percent in July is likely to rise to 5.0 percent in August, but it should moderate subsequently; based on my forecasts have their way. Mr Zuma, who it is believed wants his ex-wife and former African Union Commission chairperson, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, to replace him, has allegedly been putting state resources behind her campaign to put her ahead of his deputy. It has also been confirmed that she would be sworn-in as a member of parliament (MP)this week (18-22 September) with a view, it is reckoned, to being appointed to the cabinet. Perhaps a greater ploy is at hand, some muse: it may well be that she is being positioned to replace Mr Ramaphosa as deputy president. In that event, Mr Zuma could simply resign to enable her take his place before the December conference. With state resources and patronage at her behest consequently, she could prove too formidable for Mr Ramaphosa to beat. Another rate cut likely But would these considerations matter at the C002D5556 Send 800word comments to comment@businessdayonline.com SARB’sSeptember MPC meeting? Yes, definitely. More importantly, the committee would likely try to weigh how all of these could impact on the inflation outlook and hence its decision on interest rates. I believe there is room for at least another rate cut to 6.5 percent before end-2017, after a 25 basis points cut in July to 6.75 percent. This is consistent with the consensus view. Where I differ is in the timing. Fellow economists, at least those polled by Reuters, believe that this would happen at the September meeting. My view is that the committee would wait till the next meeting. It would almost certainly be watching closely the deliberations of the Federal Reserve, the American central bank, which will decide on interest rates on 20 September, a day before its own. I am of the view the Fed would probably not be as hawkish as it was hitherto. Domestic factors likely outweigh any global market considerationsfor the SARB at this time, however. Those who support a September cut suppose doing so later would be too close to the elective ANC conference in December; when market participants might likely be a little jittery. Pressure point in this regard would emanate from the rand, which often reacts to negative political news; albeit lately, it is proving to be somewhat resilient to the noise. Otherwise, the inflation outlook is quite benign, although risks remain. The maize harvest is expected to be bumper; an exportable BUSINESS DAY 11 surplus is expected even. There is ample power supply. Fuel prices continue to be sensitive to a resurgent international crude oil market, though, rising by at least 3 percent in September. Annual consumer inflation which came out at 4.6 percent in July is likely to rise to 5.0 percent in August, but it should moderate subsequently; based on my forecasts. What is key, though, is that inflation is likely to remain within the SARB’s target band of 3-6 percent over the short to medium term. Fiscal headaches Finance minister Malusi Gigaba has set 25 October for the delivery of his mediumterm budget policy statement (MTBPS). A key focus would be how he plans to deal with stateowned enterprises (SOEs), most of which are haemorrhaging cash; if they have it, that is.Top amongst them is South African Airways, the national carrier, which the Treasury plans to bailout to the tune of 10 billion rand (US$760 million) in October.Even though under new management, it is supposed that perhaps the carrier might stand a chance of coming out of the doldrums, any bailout package that either takes money from better run SOEs (or sells lucrative stakes in firms like Telkom SA) or public pensions would be unwise. Whether it is the airline, another ailing SOE or the economy, what is needed is not another fiscal push but a structural fix. SALIENT Enhancing leadership by engaging diversity WEYINMI JEMIDE Jemide is a certified master coach and currently a doctoral candidate in applied leadership and coaching. He writes every Tuesday in BusinessDay The most successful organisations are those with the most diverse and engaged workforces. Studies show an 80 per cent improvement in business performance among those with high diversity levels. When people feel included and able to reach their full potential, they are more engaged, more productive and often more creative – Charlotte Sweeney & Fleur Bothwick in “Inclusive Leadership”. Diversity is an emerging topic of conversation in national and organisational settings. Despite its importance, it has not generated sufficient awareness in a critical mass of audiences. While some organisations talk about it, many others have not caught on with its significance in organisational effectiveness and leadership. Yet, diversity is an inevitable element of human and organisational existence. Leaders need to be more knowledgeable about diversity and place it within relevant contexts in the organisations they lead. In this article, I present the case that enhancing leadership through diversity covers four measurable factors – instituting deliberate policies, avoiding group think, accepting differences and providing training and skills. Instituting policies on diversity To benefit from diversity, leaders need to be deliberate in installing relevant organisational policies. This is an absolute requirement in the process of enriching organisations through diversity. But policies will not execute themselves and they require the support and action of executives. Leaders, especially at executive level have to be role models of the policies they profess to support. When top leaders demonstrate the understanding and application of diversity, organisational diversity is strengthened. Boards of corporate entities also have to lead the way at their level so that management teams are given no choice but to implement diversity policies. Having a strategic plan for diversity will entail creating a vision for it that is linked to business strategy. It is imperative that leaders are consistent role models of inclusive leadership. Avoiding groupthink (and embracing dissent) Groupthink has the capacity to bring diverse people together and mould them into a single perspective or thought pattern. While it has it benefits, groupthink can also kill innovation and creativity at individual and team levels. Herminia Ibarra notes that: “…effective leaders create and use networks to tap new ideas, connect to people in different worlds, and access radically different perspectives.” In other words, effective leaders intentionally avoid groupthink to build their leading and learning capacity. Leaders need to figure out correctly that dissenting voices are not necessarily negative voices. This implies that leaders should actively encourage dissent and extract its positive elements. Although it is said that silence is golden, it can also be a leader’s death trap when the whole team is silently disagreeing but unable to voice it. The dissenting voice becomes the life guard of the leader by steering away from drowning in groupthink. As James Kouzes and Barry Posner express in “The Leader’s Legacy”, “…we never benefit from, nor truly believe, the sycophants whose flattery is obviously aimed at gaining favour. We know that no one can be that good. To stay honest to ourselves, what we really need are “loving critics” – people who care deeply enough to give us honest feedback about how we’re doing.” To build true diversity is to enable diversity of opinion. Accepting differences as inevitable Differences are integrated into our collective humanity – differences in background, race, education, genetics, colour, nationality, language, culture, personal experiences and the most natural of all gender. The contents of official forms recognise these differences and we usually are compelled to document how we are different from others. Differences are mostly inevitable, and uncontrollable but hardly viewed as valuable. Consequently, human beings would be better off acknowledging and accepting differences and seeking to use them productively. Generational shifts also emphasise the differences even in modes of thinking and values. The older ones long for the “good old days” while the younger ones claim the older ones are “old school”. The good old days had their positives but the world might be regressing if indeed it returned to the past. The present has its benefits and has taken lessons from the past as points of improvement. Leaders should show the way in accepting differences and blending them into organisational success. Providing training and skills Leaders and organisations should not assume that people will automatically understand the workings of diversity. Instead, it is necessary to actively provide knowledge platforms for employees to learn about diversity and grasp how it empowers them to achieve better results. As the opening quote of this article suggests, business improvement is linked to organisational diversity. More and more companies are activating policies about diversity but the journey to full understanding is still a long one. Like other knowledge gaps, organisations, leaders and HR executives in particular should seek to fill the gaps in learning the value of diversity. Closing note Diversity researchers David Thomas and Robin Ely conclude that when differences are used to shape goals, processes and teams, employees bring more of themselves to work. This is a strong argument for leaders to appreciate diversity. Send reactions to: comment@businessdayonline.com
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