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BusinessDay 31 Oct 2017

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38 BUSINESS DAY<br />

C002D5556<br />

Tuesday <strong>31</strong> <strong>Oct</strong>ober <strong>2017</strong><br />

NEWS<br />

Hunt for frontier yield may hasten Nigeria’s return to...<br />

Continued from page 1<br />

bond indexes, Barclays and JP<br />

Morgan.<br />

The two indexes expelled Nigeria<br />

due to currency restrictions<br />

that sparked a liquidity crisis, hammered<br />

foreign investors and made<br />

it difficult to repatriate profit.<br />

US-based JP Morgan kicked Nigeria<br />

out of its frontier bond index<br />

in <strong>Oct</strong>ober 2015 and this was soon<br />

followed by an expulsion from Barclays<br />

bank’s emerging market local<br />

currency index in February 2016.<br />

“Investors are more comfortable<br />

with where the FX liquidity is<br />

today and more confident to come<br />

and take advantage of opportunities<br />

in Nigeria, although index<br />

eligibility is still an issue,” said<br />

Ignacio Temerlin Head of Africa<br />

Debt Capital Markets, Citi Bank.<br />

The latest proof of investors’<br />

appetite for risk assets with high<br />

yields came when Tajikistan, a<br />

small nation in Central Asia with<br />

a population of 8.7 million, sold<br />

a 10-year $500 million bond at 7<br />

percent in September <strong>2017</strong>. It was<br />

oversubscribed.<br />

The bond represents 7 percent<br />

of Tajikistan’s gross domestic product<br />

and dwarfs the $74 million the<br />

country holds in foreign exchange<br />

reserves.<br />

Nigeria’s retention on the Morgan<br />

Stanley Capital International<br />

(MSCI) frontier market index after<br />

some 17 months of deliberations is<br />

also likely to herald a speedy embrace<br />

by Barclays and JP Morgan,<br />

analysts say.<br />

“The market trend backs up<br />

a possible re-inclusion on the JP<br />

Morgan bond index,” said Tajudeen<br />

Ibrahim, head of research at<br />

Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.<br />

“We have seen increased foreign<br />

inflow to fixed income, as<br />

bond prices are rallying and yields<br />

are falling. Combine those with the<br />

stabilising foreign exchange market<br />

and the increased foreign inflow<br />

into bonds, and you are more<br />

convinced that it’s only a matter<br />

of time before we are restored on<br />

that index,” Ibrahim said by phone.<br />

Bond yields across all tenors<br />

cooled Monday, with exception<br />

to the 10.70 30-MAY-2018 bond<br />

which gained 0.06 percent and the<br />

7.00 23-OCT-2019 which gained<br />

0.01 percent. Other tenors were<br />

flat, according to data obtained<br />

from the FMDQ website.<br />

Portfolio inflows into bonds<br />

totalled $USD57.8 million in May,<br />

according to CBN data, a month<br />

after the Investor and Exporter<br />

window was created. Before May,<br />

there were no foreign inflows into<br />

Nestle, Dangote Flour revenues surge as FMCG firms...<br />

Continued from page 1<br />

Dangote Sugar Plc, Dangote Flour<br />

Plc, and NASCON Plc.<br />

It is generally accepted economic<br />

principles that a weaker currency<br />

makes it cheaper for foreign<br />

buyers to purchase domestic goods<br />

and so makes such goods more attractive<br />

and benefits manufacturers<br />

as a result.<br />

“Nestle and its peers have intensified<br />

their export strategy to partly<br />

offset the impact of naira depreciation<br />

on their cost of imported raw<br />

materials,” said Tajudeen Ibrahim,<br />

head of research at Chapel Hill<br />

Denham Limited.<br />

Drilling down into the figure<br />

shows Nestle’ Nigeria’s 43.10 percent<br />

bonds. The month of June also<br />

recorded zero inflows.<br />

However, in July, the month<br />

with latest data, inflows came to<br />

$USD17 million.<br />

Ibrahim of Chapel Hill Denham<br />

expects subsequent months to<br />

seen substantial inflows, as the I<br />

& E window continues to lift confidence<br />

and puts the debilitating<br />

liquidity crisis to bed.<br />

In a statement last week, MSCI<br />

said Nigerian stocks will remain<br />

part of its frontier index and are no<br />

longer under review for a possible<br />

demotion to a standalone status,<br />

following the improved foreign<br />

exchange liquidity triggered by<br />

newly introduced Investors and<br />

Exporters window.<br />

The naira gained 0.25 percent to<br />

N359.91 per US dollar Monday at<br />

the said I&E window, according to<br />

data provided by trading platform,<br />

FMDQ.<br />

The Central Bank of Nigeria<br />

(CBN) in April, <strong>2017</strong> established<br />

the Investors and Exporters (IE)<br />

window that allowed for FX transactions<br />

at market determined<br />

rates in a bid to ease the concerns<br />

of foreign investors. The window<br />

has handled over $15 billion since<br />

inception, according to data compiled<br />

by <strong>BusinessDay</strong>.<br />

Following the creation of the<br />

I&E window, the MSCI decision<br />

on whether to retain Nigeria in its<br />

Frontier market indexes in June,<br />

<strong>2017</strong>, was postponed to ascertain<br />

jump in profit to N185.52 billion was<br />

enough to cover a 41.10 percent rise<br />

in cost of sales as net income surged<br />

by 4643 percent to N22.14 billion in<br />

the period under review.<br />

A breakdown of the Nestle’s sales<br />

for the period shows that export<br />

revenues was up 46 percent to N1.9<br />

billion in the period under review.<br />

Dangote Flour Mills sales spiked<br />

by 101.15 percent to N100.28 billion<br />

while net income surged by<br />

359 percent to N13.05 billion as at<br />

September <strong>2017</strong>.<br />

Dangote Flour, up 10.19 percent<br />

was the best performer on the<br />

Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)<br />

yesterday.<br />

An August, <strong>2017</strong> visit by business<br />

day to the Seme border in<br />

the effectiveness of the IE window.<br />

“The MSCI decision is like (the<br />

latter’s) approval of the I&E window,”<br />

said Ayodeji Ebo, managing<br />

director of financial advisory firm,<br />

Afrinvest Securities Limited.<br />

“With the MSCI hurdle crossed,<br />

returning to the JP Morgan bond<br />

index is the next stop,” Ebo said<br />

by phone.<br />

In <strong>Oct</strong>ober 2012, Nigeria became<br />

the second African country<br />

after South Africa, to be listed in<br />

the JP Morgan bond index, which<br />

tracks bond yields in emerging<br />

markets, after removing a requirement<br />

that foreign investors hold<br />

government bonds for a minimum<br />

of one year before exiting.<br />

However, things turned sour<br />

for the continent’s most populous<br />

nation, when in <strong>Oct</strong>ober 2015, the<br />

United States-based lender kicked<br />

it out of its index- tracked by funds<br />

with a combined value in excess<br />

of $200 billion- due to the lack of<br />

liquidity and transparency in the<br />

nation’s foreign exchange market.<br />

This FX crisis and Nigeria’s removal<br />

from the index, forced several<br />

global funds to sell Nigerian bonds,<br />

triggering an unprecedented capital<br />

flight, raising borrowing cost for the<br />

government and creating panic in<br />

an already constrained economy,<br />

which later pushed the economy<br />

into a debilitating recession.<br />

Improved oil prices and production<br />

and the creation of a separate<br />

window for Investors called the<br />

Investors and Exporters window<br />

have boosted liquidity, staging a<br />

comeback for investors.<br />

Lagos found that trucks loaded<br />

with goods coming from Nigeria<br />

are passing through the border to<br />

other West African countries.<br />

“A lot of Dangote trucks, Flour<br />

Mills and others are coming from<br />

Nigeria carrying flour, sugar and<br />

the likes to sell across the West Africa<br />

region,” said Monday Akpa, a<br />

Nigeria who is trading at the Seme<br />

boarder.<br />

However, the lower Naira has<br />

raised the price of imported raw<br />

material as the cumulative cost of<br />

sales of the 8 firms spiked by 41.45<br />

percent, more than double the<br />

15.98 percent September inflation<br />

figure.<br />

FMCGs were hard hit by dollar<br />

scarcity from a sharp drop in<br />

oil prices in 2016 which made it<br />

difficult for them to import raw<br />

Buhari to restructure NIA, sacks Lawal, Oke....<br />

Continued from page 4<br />

L-R: Tiko Okoye, managing director/CEO, Fortis Microfinance Bank; Akin Lawal, managing director/CEO,<br />

NPF Microfinance Bank; Tony Okpanachi, managing director/CEO, Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN),<br />

and Godwin Ehigiamusoe, managing director/CEO, LAPO Microfinance Bank, during the commencement of<br />

lending activities by DBN to Participating Financial Institutions in Abuja, yesterday.<br />

materials and equipment to meet<br />

production. Margins were also hurt<br />

due to the economic downturn.<br />

However, there is relief for these<br />

firms as the introduction of the<br />

investors’ and Exporters’ window<br />

by the apex bank in April and the<br />

subsequent liberalization of the<br />

foreign exchange market has resulted<br />

in increased dollar supply.<br />

Analysts at FBN Quest expect<br />

Nestle, like its peers, to continue to<br />

contend with the macroeconomic<br />

headwinds in 2018.<br />

“In our view, sector leaders<br />

like Nestle are likely to fare better<br />

compared with competition. Given<br />

recent foreign exchange interventions<br />

by the central bank we believe<br />

imported competition will ultimately<br />

start to stage a comeback,”<br />

said analysts at FBN Quest.<br />

medical trip to London.<br />

Adesina noted that the President<br />

had studied the report,<br />

“which investigated allegations<br />

against the suspended Secretary to<br />

the Government of the Federation,<br />

Babachir David Lawal, and the<br />

Director General, NIA, Ayo Oke.<br />

“The President accepted the<br />

recommendation of the panel to<br />

terminate the appointment of Mr<br />

Lawal, and has appointed Mr Boss<br />

Mustapha as the new Secretary to the<br />

Government of the Federation. The<br />

appointment takes immediate effect.”<br />

According to Adesina, “President<br />

Buhari also approved the<br />

recommendation to terminate<br />

the appointment of Ambassador<br />

Oke, and has further approved<br />

the setting up of a three-member<br />

panel to, among other things, look<br />

into the operational, technical<br />

and administrative structure of<br />

the Agency and make appropriate<br />

recommendations.”<br />

The new SGF, Boss Mustapha,<br />

is a lawyer, management consultant,<br />

politician, businessman and<br />

boardroom guru of considerable<br />

repute, and hails from Hong Local<br />

government of Adamawa State,<br />

same local government as the<br />

sacked Babachair Lawal.<br />

Until his current appointment,<br />

he was the managing director/CEO<br />

of the National Inland Waterways<br />

Authority (NIWA).<br />

Meanwhile, the acclaimed national<br />

leader of the All Progressives Congress<br />

(APC) party, Ahmed Tinubu,<br />

has declined comment on President<br />

Buhari’s 2019 presidential ambition.<br />

His meeting with President<br />

Buhari came immediately after<br />

Buhari had met separately with the<br />

national chairman of the party, John<br />

Odigie-Oyegun and the leadership<br />

of the National Assembly represented<br />

by Senate president, Bukola<br />

Saraki, and speaker of the House of<br />

Representatives, Yakubu Dogara.<br />

Tinubu came in just as Oyegun<br />

and the NASS leadership were<br />

leaving the Presidential Villa.<br />

But speaking with State House<br />

Correspondents after the meeting<br />

with the President yesterday, Tinubu<br />

who said he had confidence<br />

in the leadership of Buhari and the<br />

current administration, however,<br />

refused to say a word on the 2019<br />

presidential election.<br />

When asked his opinion on the<br />

current move by different groups<br />

calling for the President to run in<br />

2019, he simply replied that such<br />

should not be discussed with him;<br />

“Don’t discuss that one with me.<br />

“I just met with the President.<br />

Our discussion was fruitful, productive<br />

and it was about the country<br />

and leadership as a whole. And<br />

that got him excited and happy.”<br />

Asked about his alleged displeasure<br />

about the direction of government<br />

since the last election, Tinubu<br />

described reports of his unhappiness<br />

as “fake news,” adding that “I<br />

have confidence in this President,<br />

there is no doubt about that.”<br />

According to Tinubu, “We<br />

worked hard to bring about the<br />

government, there are certain<br />

things that are unpredictable and<br />

those are things that can lean itself<br />

to gossips, insinuations and all of<br />

that. But once you create leadership<br />

and is functioning you don’t<br />

have to babysit that leadership,<br />

unless there is a loss of confidence<br />

and I don’t have that.<br />

“You know me. I’m not known<br />

to shy away from talking my mind<br />

and rebelling if it is necessary and<br />

taking charge of things that I believe<br />

are necessary.<br />

“What is the myth in this leadership<br />

thing? What is cable? It Is a<br />

myth. We are the party of the people<br />

for the people and by the people<br />

and this is democratic environment.<br />

“Each of us have our roles to<br />

play and that is why we are playing<br />

it. I don’t believe in the myth, I<br />

believe in confidence building, the<br />

trust that we have in the president.<br />

In the journey of democracy you<br />

are going to have twists and turns,<br />

you are going to have conflicts.<br />

Conflicts resolution mechanisms<br />

is inbuilt on how you handle your<br />

party and the governance and the<br />

party are joined by the hips.”<br />

On allegations that there is<br />

panic ahead of the party’s NEC<br />

meeting coming up today, and efforts<br />

to mend fences ahead of the<br />

meeting, Tinubu denied the rifts,<br />

saying, “Did I tell you that? Why<br />

do you want to know; are you a<br />

member of our party?”<br />

Tinubu also assured that the<br />

party was on course, adding however,<br />

that it was not easy to “face<br />

the kind of challenges Buhari’s<br />

government faced.<br />

“Can you go back to the history<br />

of 16 years of the PDP? APC<br />

government is on course and will<br />

remain on course, and we will<br />

remain focused to those necessary<br />

things about development, welfare<br />

and progress of our people.

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