BusinessDay 31 Oct 2017
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38 BUSINESS DAY<br />
C002D5556<br />
Tuesday <strong>31</strong> <strong>Oct</strong>ober <strong>2017</strong><br />
NEWS<br />
Hunt for frontier yield may hasten Nigeria’s return to...<br />
Continued from page 1<br />
bond indexes, Barclays and JP<br />
Morgan.<br />
The two indexes expelled Nigeria<br />
due to currency restrictions<br />
that sparked a liquidity crisis, hammered<br />
foreign investors and made<br />
it difficult to repatriate profit.<br />
US-based JP Morgan kicked Nigeria<br />
out of its frontier bond index<br />
in <strong>Oct</strong>ober 2015 and this was soon<br />
followed by an expulsion from Barclays<br />
bank’s emerging market local<br />
currency index in February 2016.<br />
“Investors are more comfortable<br />
with where the FX liquidity is<br />
today and more confident to come<br />
and take advantage of opportunities<br />
in Nigeria, although index<br />
eligibility is still an issue,” said<br />
Ignacio Temerlin Head of Africa<br />
Debt Capital Markets, Citi Bank.<br />
The latest proof of investors’<br />
appetite for risk assets with high<br />
yields came when Tajikistan, a<br />
small nation in Central Asia with<br />
a population of 8.7 million, sold<br />
a 10-year $500 million bond at 7<br />
percent in September <strong>2017</strong>. It was<br />
oversubscribed.<br />
The bond represents 7 percent<br />
of Tajikistan’s gross domestic product<br />
and dwarfs the $74 million the<br />
country holds in foreign exchange<br />
reserves.<br />
Nigeria’s retention on the Morgan<br />
Stanley Capital International<br />
(MSCI) frontier market index after<br />
some 17 months of deliberations is<br />
also likely to herald a speedy embrace<br />
by Barclays and JP Morgan,<br />
analysts say.<br />
“The market trend backs up<br />
a possible re-inclusion on the JP<br />
Morgan bond index,” said Tajudeen<br />
Ibrahim, head of research at<br />
Lagos-based Chapel Hill Denham.<br />
“We have seen increased foreign<br />
inflow to fixed income, as<br />
bond prices are rallying and yields<br />
are falling. Combine those with the<br />
stabilising foreign exchange market<br />
and the increased foreign inflow<br />
into bonds, and you are more<br />
convinced that it’s only a matter<br />
of time before we are restored on<br />
that index,” Ibrahim said by phone.<br />
Bond yields across all tenors<br />
cooled Monday, with exception<br />
to the 10.70 30-MAY-2018 bond<br />
which gained 0.06 percent and the<br />
7.00 23-OCT-2019 which gained<br />
0.01 percent. Other tenors were<br />
flat, according to data obtained<br />
from the FMDQ website.<br />
Portfolio inflows into bonds<br />
totalled $USD57.8 million in May,<br />
according to CBN data, a month<br />
after the Investor and Exporter<br />
window was created. Before May,<br />
there were no foreign inflows into<br />
Nestle, Dangote Flour revenues surge as FMCG firms...<br />
Continued from page 1<br />
Dangote Sugar Plc, Dangote Flour<br />
Plc, and NASCON Plc.<br />
It is generally accepted economic<br />
principles that a weaker currency<br />
makes it cheaper for foreign<br />
buyers to purchase domestic goods<br />
and so makes such goods more attractive<br />
and benefits manufacturers<br />
as a result.<br />
“Nestle and its peers have intensified<br />
their export strategy to partly<br />
offset the impact of naira depreciation<br />
on their cost of imported raw<br />
materials,” said Tajudeen Ibrahim,<br />
head of research at Chapel Hill<br />
Denham Limited.<br />
Drilling down into the figure<br />
shows Nestle’ Nigeria’s 43.10 percent<br />
bonds. The month of June also<br />
recorded zero inflows.<br />
However, in July, the month<br />
with latest data, inflows came to<br />
$USD17 million.<br />
Ibrahim of Chapel Hill Denham<br />
expects subsequent months to<br />
seen substantial inflows, as the I<br />
& E window continues to lift confidence<br />
and puts the debilitating<br />
liquidity crisis to bed.<br />
In a statement last week, MSCI<br />
said Nigerian stocks will remain<br />
part of its frontier index and are no<br />
longer under review for a possible<br />
demotion to a standalone status,<br />
following the improved foreign<br />
exchange liquidity triggered by<br />
newly introduced Investors and<br />
Exporters window.<br />
The naira gained 0.25 percent to<br />
N359.91 per US dollar Monday at<br />
the said I&E window, according to<br />
data provided by trading platform,<br />
FMDQ.<br />
The Central Bank of Nigeria<br />
(CBN) in April, <strong>2017</strong> established<br />
the Investors and Exporters (IE)<br />
window that allowed for FX transactions<br />
at market determined<br />
rates in a bid to ease the concerns<br />
of foreign investors. The window<br />
has handled over $15 billion since<br />
inception, according to data compiled<br />
by <strong>BusinessDay</strong>.<br />
Following the creation of the<br />
I&E window, the MSCI decision<br />
on whether to retain Nigeria in its<br />
Frontier market indexes in June,<br />
<strong>2017</strong>, was postponed to ascertain<br />
jump in profit to N185.52 billion was<br />
enough to cover a 41.10 percent rise<br />
in cost of sales as net income surged<br />
by 4643 percent to N22.14 billion in<br />
the period under review.<br />
A breakdown of the Nestle’s sales<br />
for the period shows that export<br />
revenues was up 46 percent to N1.9<br />
billion in the period under review.<br />
Dangote Flour Mills sales spiked<br />
by 101.15 percent to N100.28 billion<br />
while net income surged by<br />
359 percent to N13.05 billion as at<br />
September <strong>2017</strong>.<br />
Dangote Flour, up 10.19 percent<br />
was the best performer on the<br />
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE)<br />
yesterday.<br />
An August, <strong>2017</strong> visit by business<br />
day to the Seme border in<br />
the effectiveness of the IE window.<br />
“The MSCI decision is like (the<br />
latter’s) approval of the I&E window,”<br />
said Ayodeji Ebo, managing<br />
director of financial advisory firm,<br />
Afrinvest Securities Limited.<br />
“With the MSCI hurdle crossed,<br />
returning to the JP Morgan bond<br />
index is the next stop,” Ebo said<br />
by phone.<br />
In <strong>Oct</strong>ober 2012, Nigeria became<br />
the second African country<br />
after South Africa, to be listed in<br />
the JP Morgan bond index, which<br />
tracks bond yields in emerging<br />
markets, after removing a requirement<br />
that foreign investors hold<br />
government bonds for a minimum<br />
of one year before exiting.<br />
However, things turned sour<br />
for the continent’s most populous<br />
nation, when in <strong>Oct</strong>ober 2015, the<br />
United States-based lender kicked<br />
it out of its index- tracked by funds<br />
with a combined value in excess<br />
of $200 billion- due to the lack of<br />
liquidity and transparency in the<br />
nation’s foreign exchange market.<br />
This FX crisis and Nigeria’s removal<br />
from the index, forced several<br />
global funds to sell Nigerian bonds,<br />
triggering an unprecedented capital<br />
flight, raising borrowing cost for the<br />
government and creating panic in<br />
an already constrained economy,<br />
which later pushed the economy<br />
into a debilitating recession.<br />
Improved oil prices and production<br />
and the creation of a separate<br />
window for Investors called the<br />
Investors and Exporters window<br />
have boosted liquidity, staging a<br />
comeback for investors.<br />
Lagos found that trucks loaded<br />
with goods coming from Nigeria<br />
are passing through the border to<br />
other West African countries.<br />
“A lot of Dangote trucks, Flour<br />
Mills and others are coming from<br />
Nigeria carrying flour, sugar and<br />
the likes to sell across the West Africa<br />
region,” said Monday Akpa, a<br />
Nigeria who is trading at the Seme<br />
boarder.<br />
However, the lower Naira has<br />
raised the price of imported raw<br />
material as the cumulative cost of<br />
sales of the 8 firms spiked by 41.45<br />
percent, more than double the<br />
15.98 percent September inflation<br />
figure.<br />
FMCGs were hard hit by dollar<br />
scarcity from a sharp drop in<br />
oil prices in 2016 which made it<br />
difficult for them to import raw<br />
Buhari to restructure NIA, sacks Lawal, Oke....<br />
Continued from page 4<br />
L-R: Tiko Okoye, managing director/CEO, Fortis Microfinance Bank; Akin Lawal, managing director/CEO,<br />
NPF Microfinance Bank; Tony Okpanachi, managing director/CEO, Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN),<br />
and Godwin Ehigiamusoe, managing director/CEO, LAPO Microfinance Bank, during the commencement of<br />
lending activities by DBN to Participating Financial Institutions in Abuja, yesterday.<br />
materials and equipment to meet<br />
production. Margins were also hurt<br />
due to the economic downturn.<br />
However, there is relief for these<br />
firms as the introduction of the<br />
investors’ and Exporters’ window<br />
by the apex bank in April and the<br />
subsequent liberalization of the<br />
foreign exchange market has resulted<br />
in increased dollar supply.<br />
Analysts at FBN Quest expect<br />
Nestle, like its peers, to continue to<br />
contend with the macroeconomic<br />
headwinds in 2018.<br />
“In our view, sector leaders<br />
like Nestle are likely to fare better<br />
compared with competition. Given<br />
recent foreign exchange interventions<br />
by the central bank we believe<br />
imported competition will ultimately<br />
start to stage a comeback,”<br />
said analysts at FBN Quest.<br />
medical trip to London.<br />
Adesina noted that the President<br />
had studied the report,<br />
“which investigated allegations<br />
against the suspended Secretary to<br />
the Government of the Federation,<br />
Babachir David Lawal, and the<br />
Director General, NIA, Ayo Oke.<br />
“The President accepted the<br />
recommendation of the panel to<br />
terminate the appointment of Mr<br />
Lawal, and has appointed Mr Boss<br />
Mustapha as the new Secretary to the<br />
Government of the Federation. The<br />
appointment takes immediate effect.”<br />
According to Adesina, “President<br />
Buhari also approved the<br />
recommendation to terminate<br />
the appointment of Ambassador<br />
Oke, and has further approved<br />
the setting up of a three-member<br />
panel to, among other things, look<br />
into the operational, technical<br />
and administrative structure of<br />
the Agency and make appropriate<br />
recommendations.”<br />
The new SGF, Boss Mustapha,<br />
is a lawyer, management consultant,<br />
politician, businessman and<br />
boardroom guru of considerable<br />
repute, and hails from Hong Local<br />
government of Adamawa State,<br />
same local government as the<br />
sacked Babachair Lawal.<br />
Until his current appointment,<br />
he was the managing director/CEO<br />
of the National Inland Waterways<br />
Authority (NIWA).<br />
Meanwhile, the acclaimed national<br />
leader of the All Progressives Congress<br />
(APC) party, Ahmed Tinubu,<br />
has declined comment on President<br />
Buhari’s 2019 presidential ambition.<br />
His meeting with President<br />
Buhari came immediately after<br />
Buhari had met separately with the<br />
national chairman of the party, John<br />
Odigie-Oyegun and the leadership<br />
of the National Assembly represented<br />
by Senate president, Bukola<br />
Saraki, and speaker of the House of<br />
Representatives, Yakubu Dogara.<br />
Tinubu came in just as Oyegun<br />
and the NASS leadership were<br />
leaving the Presidential Villa.<br />
But speaking with State House<br />
Correspondents after the meeting<br />
with the President yesterday, Tinubu<br />
who said he had confidence<br />
in the leadership of Buhari and the<br />
current administration, however,<br />
refused to say a word on the 2019<br />
presidential election.<br />
When asked his opinion on the<br />
current move by different groups<br />
calling for the President to run in<br />
2019, he simply replied that such<br />
should not be discussed with him;<br />
“Don’t discuss that one with me.<br />
“I just met with the President.<br />
Our discussion was fruitful, productive<br />
and it was about the country<br />
and leadership as a whole. And<br />
that got him excited and happy.”<br />
Asked about his alleged displeasure<br />
about the direction of government<br />
since the last election, Tinubu<br />
described reports of his unhappiness<br />
as “fake news,” adding that “I<br />
have confidence in this President,<br />
there is no doubt about that.”<br />
According to Tinubu, “We<br />
worked hard to bring about the<br />
government, there are certain<br />
things that are unpredictable and<br />
those are things that can lean itself<br />
to gossips, insinuations and all of<br />
that. But once you create leadership<br />
and is functioning you don’t<br />
have to babysit that leadership,<br />
unless there is a loss of confidence<br />
and I don’t have that.<br />
“You know me. I’m not known<br />
to shy away from talking my mind<br />
and rebelling if it is necessary and<br />
taking charge of things that I believe<br />
are necessary.<br />
“What is the myth in this leadership<br />
thing? What is cable? It Is a<br />
myth. We are the party of the people<br />
for the people and by the people<br />
and this is democratic environment.<br />
“Each of us have our roles to<br />
play and that is why we are playing<br />
it. I don’t believe in the myth, I<br />
believe in confidence building, the<br />
trust that we have in the president.<br />
In the journey of democracy you<br />
are going to have twists and turns,<br />
you are going to have conflicts.<br />
Conflicts resolution mechanisms<br />
is inbuilt on how you handle your<br />
party and the governance and the<br />
party are joined by the hips.”<br />
On allegations that there is<br />
panic ahead of the party’s NEC<br />
meeting coming up today, and efforts<br />
to mend fences ahead of the<br />
meeting, Tinubu denied the rifts,<br />
saying, “Did I tell you that? Why<br />
do you want to know; are you a<br />
member of our party?”<br />
Tinubu also assured that the<br />
party was on course, adding however,<br />
that it was not easy to “face<br />
the kind of challenges Buhari’s<br />
government faced.<br />
“Can you go back to the history<br />
of 16 years of the PDP? APC<br />
government is on course and will<br />
remain on course, and we will<br />
remain focused to those necessary<br />
things about development, welfare<br />
and progress of our people.