World 01_10_18

WORLD SPORTS & OUTDOORS
Northfield’s Hailey Brickey ( #3 in white) snaps a shot over the stick of Rice defender Grace Miller (#6, in green) during last
Wednesday night’s game at Kreitzberg Arena. Rice defeated the Northfield Girls 3-1. Photo by Bill Croney
Colby Gingras of Williamstown drives past a Winooski defender as he heads to the
hoop during the Blue Devil’s 76-39 win over the Spartans. The Williamstown Boys
are 7-0 so far this season. Photo by Bill Croney
December 2017 Weather Statistics
Barre-Montpelier VT
Highest temperature: 48 degrees on the 6th
Coolest daytime high: -3 degrees on the 28th
31st
Lowest temperature: -19 degrees on the 29th
Warmest minimum 34 degrees on the 5th
Monthly average 16.9 which was 6.1 degrees
below normal
Heating Degree days 1484 Normal 1302
Cooling degree days 0 Normal 0
Average daytime sky cover: 7/10ths which is
mostly cloudy
Heaviest precipitation: 0.54” on the 23nd
Accumulated December precipitation” 2.29
Normal 2.74”
Precipitation Percent of normal: 83% of normal
Largest snowfall: 9.4” on the 12th
Thunderstorm days: None
Strongest winds 38 mph on the 31th from the
northwest.
December 2017 Weather – Par for the Course,
then Arctic Outbreak
Temperatures began actually a little above
normal through about the 12th of last month
with a bit of the typical oscillation. After about
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the 12th of last month, colder
arctic air spilled into the
region now and then with
the coldest reading reaching
a frigid 11 below. This first
shot of cold arctic air did
not last with more or less
moderation ahead of the
Christmas Holidays but the
back and forth in temperatures
after Christmas Day
took a significant plunge to
well below normal on the
28th, 29th,30th and 31st.
This Arctic outbreak was
very significant not occurring
to these levels in many
years.
Precipitation ended up
being below normal for the
month with melted precip at
2.29 or about 83% of average. Snowfall really
the biggest storm of December occurred within
a window that is of a climatological high give or
take 3 days around the 10th of December. This
occurred on the 12th with the most significant
snowfall taking shape. Windiest day was on the
end of the month with strong gusty northwesterly
winds and severe wind chills.
December of 2017 will be remembered for
the start of a significant arctic outbreak that
lasted into early January.
With one of the more premier cold snaps on
record to start January 2018, its worthy to note
this particular cold snap was regional in scale to
eastern and northern North America. For a short
period of time, nearly all of the lower 48 United
States saw temperature below freezing at one
Ron Fox Kelly Massicotte Heidi Groff Pat Biggam
point. But the culprit was largely due to big
blocking higher pressure over the Ural mountains
extending north. This in turn drove a flow
of air right smack dab from those high latitudes
and arctic region, deep into the American south.
While we shivered in the deep freeze in the
Northeast U.S. and adjacent Canada it was
warmer in places like central and western
Siberia, A goodly portion of the arctic sea, and
most especially the rest of the northern hemisphere
including Europe. Only Greenland was
equivalent or colder.
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)…
Late November measurement for Carbon
Dioxide CO2 was 406.75 ppm as measured at
the Mauna Loa Observatory. Highest-ever daily
average CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory 412.63
ppm back on April 26th, 2017. Expect this
chemistry measurement of the atmosphere to
continue to skyrocket in the northern hemisphere
winter into March and April likely setting
new records.
Normal or reasonable CO2 for a stable optimum
climate is 350.0 parts per million but most
of the Holocene era when civilization evolved
and the climate was stable between interglacial
periods had carbon dioxide measurements at
280 parts per million. Those days are long
gone.
2017 Second Hottest year of Record Globally
Even with a La Nina...
Last year was the second-hottest year on
record according to Nasa data, and was the hottest
year without the short-term warming influence
of an El Niño event: 2017 was the hottest
year without an El Niño by a wide margin – a
whopping 0.17°C hotter than 2014, which previously
held that record. Remarkably, 2017 was
also hotter than 2015, which at the time was by
far the hottest year on record thanks in
part to a strong El Niño event that year.
For comparison, the neutral El Niño
conditions and the level of solar activity
in 1972 were quite similar to those in
2017. 45 years later, the latter was 0.9°C
hotter than the former. For each type of
year – La Niña, El Niño, and neutral –
the global surface warming trend
between 1964 and 2017 is 0.17–0.18°C
per decade, which is consistent with
climate model predictions and no surprise.
That’s now happened, and as a result we’re seeing
unleashed global warming causing record
temperatures year after year. Temperatures have
in fact risen so quickly, it appears to have taken
just a few years.
President Trump began the process of withdrawing
the US from the Paris Climate
Agreement in 2017, leaving America as the only
country in the world denying the urgent need to
address global warming. Fortunately, every
other nation is taking action to mitigate this
existential threat, but there’s a shocking gap
between reality and the ‘fake news’ beliefs of
arguably the most powerful man in the world.
America was also battered by climate-fueled
extreme weather events in 2017. Research has
already shown that global warming boosted
Hurricane Harvey’s record rainfall (and associated
flooding) by about 38%. California’s record
wildfire season was similarly fueled by the
state’s hot summer. The southwestern states
were cooked by record hot summer temperatures
this year, and global warming is making
droughts in America and Europe worse,.
America was hit by 15-billion weather and climate
disasters in 2017, and it will likely be the
costliest such year on record once all of the hurricane
damages are tallied.
These extreme weather events are expensive,
and they’re a mere taste of what’s to come.
Until we manage to cut global carbon pollution,
temperatures will continue to rise and climate
change consequences will become more severe.
While it broke many of today’s records, 2017 is
just a taste of the future.
Vermont Weather Trends – January...
There was plenty of low confidence in longer
range forecasting now that we will warm significantly.
January was projected to be much
warmer than normal, but there are loads contradictions
in this warmer forecast. Much like
December, initially some of the details were at
odds to other mechanisms that might bring
sharply colder weather – but nowhere the
extreme of what we have experience late
December and the first week of January.
Best bet – No promises Forecast: Cooler than
normal weather returns roughly mid month
around the 15th but this is followed by much
above normal temperatures with cold pretty
much a thing of the past the overall warmth will
oscillate with cooler periods with a storm track
largely in Canada (not very January-like) and
warmth lasting well into the end of the month.
This is out of step with a more colder backloaded
winter forecast. There are interesting
things happening in the arctic that plays havoc
with longer term projections. February should
go back the other way to some degree that be
colder than normal.
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Climate scientists predicted this rapid
temperature rise
It was only a matter of time until
short-term effects stopped holding back
the rise of Earth’s surface temperatures.
page 24 The WORLD January 10, 2018