RCCDO January25 Bulletin

How robot taxis will change mobility
over the next 10 years
Source: https://www.weforum.org/
A
silent revolution is arriving on
our streets. Before too long, commuters
will use their mobiles to
summon fully autonomous robot taxis.
These will collect them from home and
drive them to the closest metro station,
from where they can catch a train to
work in the city centre. These zeroemission
vehicles will be electric, powered
by solar or wind generation. We
believe this transformation is just around
the corner. It promises to change the
mobility market, and much more.
Within the next five years, cities will
begin to transform their transit systems,
to tackle the twin challenges of congestion
and climate change. By using autonomous
taxis with significantly higher capacity
and usage rates, and integrated
with traffic optimization systems, cities
could reduce the number of cars on their
streets by more than 40%.
In an optimistic scenario, a city like Berlin
could use robot taxis to carry up to
60% of its passengers. Changes like this
would bring clean, affordable and secure
mobility to city residents.
A more likely scenario sees autonomous
vehicles making up 2% of new vehicle
sales globally by 2025, rising to 8% by
2030. If the cost of self-driving cars falls
15
faster, and cities introduce new mobility
systems more quickly, autonomous vehicles
could make up 30% or more of
the market by 2030.
Policies and investment
Legislation will be a critical enabler in
this transformation, as cities and countries
make strong commitments to reduce
carbon emissions. Regulations will
increase pressure on internal combustion
engine (ICE) vehicles, creating incentives
for zero-emission cars such as
battery-powered electric vehicles (EVs).
Some cities will ban ICEs from their
most congested districts, and could restrict
these areas to shared vehicles.
These regulatory changes will pave the
way for greater use of electric, autonomous
taxis.
At the same time, automotive and technology
companies are investing substantially
in the software and hardware
required for full automation of urban
mobility (levels 4 and 5 of the Society of
Automotive Engineers’ scale). Some
companies are already piloting autonomous
vehicles in cooperative cities.
Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, has
logged four million self-driven miles.
General Motors is also embracing the