CubaTrade-January-Flipbook

ECONOMY
The
Vietnam
Scenario
Hanoi-Havana ties are
solid. So why isn’t Cuba
replicating Vietnam’s
economic success?
By Nick Swyter
Photo by: Yenny Muñoa/CubaMINREX
How do we move food
from Hastings to Havana?
Break down barriers.
Children wave flags to welcome former Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang to a Havana school
Vietnam has regularly been identified as a
suitable economic model for Cuba to follow
once it accelerates market-oriented reforms.
The characterization makes sense,
considering both countries have communist
governments, limited natural resources,
and fraught histories with the United
States. Vietnam has experienced economic
growth every year since it initiated socialist-oriented
market reforms known as Doi
Moi in 1986.
The reforms established a resilient
economy propelled by large state-owned
enterprises partnering with global brands,
a growing private sector, diversified
exports, a solid tourism industry, and a
suitable environment for manufacturing.
Those economic accomplishments
happened without Vietnam sacrificing its
single-party rule.
So why isn’t Cuba replicating the Doi
Moi playbook?
Geography and culture play important
roles. It’s impossible for Cuba to
replicate Vietnam’s economic strategy because
the island has less land, people, and
resources, said author and former Mexican
Secretary of Foreign Affairs Jorge
Castañeda. Vietnam also benefits from its
industrial culture, he added.
“In economic terms, [Vietnam] is a
much bigger, more populated country with
24 CUBATRADE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2018
different traditions,” Castañeda said. “The
Cubans do not seem to be organized that
way, and it’s a much smaller and poorer
country.”
Cuba’s ties to its neighbors also
discourage it from adopting Vietnam-style
reforms, said Enrique Pumar, chair of
Santa Clara University’s sociology department.
He said Cubans are likely to expect
more from economic reforms than the
Vietnamese because they compare themselves
to Western European and North
American societies, especially the exile
community in Florida. Vietnam doesn’t
compare itself that way, since its diaspora
community lives further away and many of
its neighbors are less prosperous.
“[The Vietnamese] say, ‘We are doing
ok’ when comparing themselves with
Cambodia and Laos. Maybe even with
some provinces in southern China,” Pumar
said. “But the comparison for Cubans
is very different because it has always been
the United States and Europe, and not
necessarily Latin America.”
Castañeda added that Cuban-Americans
have so far been reluctant to, and
limited from, formally investing in Cuba.
“That’s where a lot of the investment
would come from, and it’s not coming,”
Castañeda said.
While Raúl Castro initiated economic
reforms such as allowing some private
sector activities and leasing government-owned
land to farmers, transformative
changes are unlikely to happen
while his inner circle remains in power,
Pumar said. He noted that Vietnam and
China only made significant changes
after revolutionary leaders Ho Chi Minh
and Mao Zedong died. “If you compare
post-communist societies, these societies
do not make meaningful changes until the
revolutionary leader and his inner circle
are out of the picture,” Pumar said.
Castañeda said whoever succeeds
Raúl Castro in 2018 will probably come
from his inner circle, making significant
economic reforms unlikely.
Even though Cuba hasn’t completely
embraced Doi Moi, the Castro government
has studied the economic model
privately with Vietnam for years. Castañeda
says the discussions haven’t improved
the Cuban economy, but understanding
Doi Moi helps the Cuban government
make economic reforms without political
reforms.
“Maybe one of the reasons why they
haven’t gone further – or they have backtracked
rather systematically – is precisely
because if they go too far they will lose control,”
Castañeda said. “It’s what Fidel Castro
always used to say about Gorbachev.” H
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