26 February - 4 March 2018 - 16-new-min

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2 26 February - 4 March, 2018 P Editorial ◆◆ By Tarek Fatah Author & Columnist, Canada @TarekFatah tarek.fatah@gmail.com NEW DELHI TIMES Who is sponsoring Pakistan’s Defence Budget? ◆◆ By NDT Special Bureau @NewDelhiTimes info@newdelhitimes.com akistan is spending more than 3.5% of its GDP on the defence budget of the country. Although overtly, it looks that this high defence expenditure can be attributed to the so called counter insurgency operations in the country. However, a closer analysis of the situation in Pakistan indicates two trends: First, the country is looking at a very realistic chance of a conflict with its neighbour India and thus military expenditure is to be boosted according to the country’s policymakers. Second, this points to the heavy influence Pakistan military exerts on the country’s political class. This has ensured that the defence budget remains at elevated level in relation to Pakistan’s GDP. The increasing grip of the military on the political establishment also implies that security concerns will remain central to any policy discourse in Pakistan. It was during the tenure of the military rule of Pervez Musharraf during the first decade of the 21st century that the proportion of the Pakistani budget allocated to the defence sector saw a steep rise. Apart, from the country’s budget, the military expenditure in Pakistan got a boost from a number of other sources throughout the reign of Pervez Musharraf. Military pensions accounted for 20-23% of total military expenditure - from the defence budget without a proportionate decrease in the Ministry of Defence’s allocation. Armed Forces Development Programme (AFDP), provided additional funding to the military approximately estimated at Pakistan’s lioness Asma Jahangir will never die or over 40 years the lioness of Pakistan F stood alone, surrounded by a snarling pack of hyenas circling her for the kill. But they never dared come close to Asma Jahangir whose stare alone used to send many a jihadi and military general packing with tails tucked between their rears. Then on Sunday Jahangir passed away as a result of a cardiac arrest. Few in Canada or the U.S. know of this iron lady who was a feminist in the true sense of the word, not like the pussy-hat wearing fashionistas obsessed with their sacred alliance with the most right-wing regressive forces of Islamism, exemplified by the hijab of Linda Sarsour. Asma Jahangir didn’t ever wrap her head in hijab, the flag of misogyny that has enamoured so many white women of privilege. She knew the piece of cloth represented Islamic radicalism. Only 66, she was also the UN Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran. While most Pakistanis, Indians and Iranians were shocked PKR75 billion per year. A major financial support to the Pakistani military came from US support which rose significantly from around USD500 million in 2008 to around USD1.3 billion by 2011. It was during this period that Pakistan managed to eyewash the Photo Credit : Shutterstock entire global community on its “War against terror” but multiple evidences point to the fact that US aid in the war against terror was subject to gross misutilisation by Pakistan. The core defence budget grew further between rates between 2009 and 2014 following the departure of Musharraf, averaging 15.2% throughout the period. This was attributed primarily due to the rise in Pakistan counter-insurgency operations and also to the fact that the process of the withdrawal of the US troops in Afghanistan had set into motion. Therefore, despite unfavourable fiscal scenario, the core defence budget was around 17% of the state budget. This period was also marked by a surge in operations along the Afghan border. It may be mentioned here that inflationary pressure can not be held as the major cause for the increase in the military budget. The increasing defence budget expenditure is a voluntary decision of the Pakistani military at the news of her death, Islamists of the region rejoiced. A comment on Pakistan’s Herald Tribune newspaper by one Osama Tariq epitomized the celebratory atmosphere among her Islamist enemies. Tariq wrote: “We finally got rid of her. She was the worst enemy of Islam and Pakistan.” It didn’t stop there. Mehreen Sabtain, a news anchor class. Here it must also be added that although the Pakistan government embarked on a policy to reduce the country’s overall budget deficit since 2012, the Ministry of Defence’s budget has increased at a faster rate than the overall spending. To cite figures, the total expenditure on defence has elevated from around 20% of the state budget in 2013 to 23% under the 2017 budget. At the same time, government forecasts contained within the Medium Term Budget Estimates (MTBE) estimate that core defence budget will maintain a steady rare of real terms growth and this will be approximately in the range of 8-9%. In real terms total spending (including military pensions) is estimated around USD11.4 billion by the end of the two-year MTBE period. Pakistan’s projected economic growth at 5-5.5% indicates that a significant amount of resources would be diverted into defence spending. This could only be reversed Pakistan decides to cut its military spending but considering the current regional geopolitical regional situation, this looks too much of a distinct prospect. However, based on current policy statements total defence expenditure - including military pensions – it can be expected that such military expenditure will reach around USD13 billion a year in real terms by 2022. The growth in defence budget would thus be in an increasing direction. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attack and the launch of the global war on terror by the US, Pakistan was somehow able to project itself as an ally in the war against terror. As a result, it received billions of dollars in the form of assistance. According to estimates, between 2002 and 2010, Pakistan received an estimated USD18.5 billion of military on the country’s Bol TV network, mocked Jahangir as gay and a traitor. She tweeted: “Where are we heading as a nation, now traitors are hero-worshipped & our bikaoo [sell-out] media glorify them on TV screens! The fag fought for fame for rest of her life by always lashing at saviors of state.” But the lioness, even in death, left the wolves in agony. Mullahs gossiped in glee that no matter what Jahangir did in life, after her death her body would end up in their hands. This, because burial ceremonies are a monopoly of mosque-run cemeteries, and Islamic traditions (not the Quran) forbids women from being present at funerals. The plan was to bar her Canadian-educated daughters, female followers and non- Muslims who she often represented, from the ceremony in which they could then insult her through insinuations mumbled in incomprehensible Arabic prayers. Not so easy ayatollah. Asma Jahangir would not go quietly. Friends and family of Jahangir turned the tables by inviting the harshest critic of the Islamist establishment, Haider Maududi, who ironically is the son of the founder and non-military economic assistance from the US. The main instruments of such hefty US military aid were the Support Fund (CSF) and the Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund (PCF), intended to be used to pay for military operations in support of the ‘Global War on Terror’ until funding through these measures came to an end in 2013. The funding for the CSF and PCF was provided by the US Department of Defense (DoD) and appropriated through the Overseas’s Contingency Operations (previously Global War on Terror) supplemental budget requests. Between October 2001 and June 2007, the US provided USD5.56 billion aid to Pakistan to utilise for conducting military operations along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. In addition to the aid, the US also the US provides financial assistance through the Foreign Military Financing (FMF), International Military Education and Training (IMET), and International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE) programmes. Since 2005, the US has provided USD250- 300 million annually through the FMF programme, around USD5 million through IMET and USD40-100 million through INCLE. However, in recent months, particularly after Donald Trump became the US President, some tough questions have been asked of Pakistan. The Trump administration seeks to make Pakistan more accountable for the billions of aid the South Asian nation receives from the US on the pretext of being an ally in the war against terror. It will be interesting to see how Pakistan structures its defence budget spending as the US now calls for a greater oversight and accountability of the military aid to Pakistan. of the radical Jamaat-e-Islami (a Muslim Brotherhood sister group in the Indian subcontinent) to conduct the farewell prayers and rituals. Not only did an anti-Islamist lead her funeral prayer on Tuesday, but for the first time anywhere in the world, women of all ages joined the mixed-gender prayer, standing shoulder to shoulder with men in the front row — scores of them, some in the traditional Indo-Pakistani head cover ‘dopatta’, some even bare-headed, but not a single woman in hijab. The impact of this funeral will be felt for ages, breaking a 1,000-year-old Islamic ruling that says the female presence at funerals is prohibited, as it may lead to ‘temptations’ among the men. Asma Jahangir was from my generation. I was just out of prison when I first heard of her, daring to climb over the wall of a military-appointed governor in Lahore to place a black flag of dissent. Farewell, sister. Some have described you as Joan of Arc, but the truth is, you are our very own ‘Liberty’ leading the people, as depicted in Delacroix’s masterpiece in 1830. You will never die. www.NewDelhiTimes.com India’s only International Newspaper
26 February - 4 March, 2018 3 Editorial NEW DELHI TIMES India and Iran’s strategic convergence on Chabahar R T ◆◆ By Dr. Ankit Srivastava Editor - in - Chief @AnkitNDT ankits@newdelhitimes.com ecently, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, accompanied by a 21-member delegation of ministers and businessmen, paid a 3-day visit to India. This was the first such visit paid by an Iranian President in ten years. On February 17, India and Iran signed nine agreements on trade, energy and connectivity like Maritime Agreement on Chabahar Port and Document on Shahid Behesti port, Double Taxation Avoidance Agreements (DTAA), Exemption of Visa requirements for diplomatic passport holders, Ratification of Extradition Treaty, Co-operation on Medicine and Agriculture, Establishment US annual intelligence report on major Asian countries ◆◆ By NDT US Bureau @NewDelhiTimes info@newdelhitimes.com he Director of US National Intelligence Daniel R. Coats, on 13th February, 2018, presented the annual intelligence report to the Senate Intelligence Committee. Integrating the observations of American intelligence community on worldwide threat assessment, the report is a joint production of seventeen intelligence agencies including the most prominent ones like Central Intelligence Agency, Defence Intelligence Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation and National Security Agency. It warns Congress that Pakistan will continue to slip out of America’s influence and veer into China’s orbit in 2019 to become a threat to Washington’s interests in the South Asian region. The report reveals that Islamabad-backed militant groups will continue to get safe haven in Pakistan to ‘plan and conduct attacks in India and Afghanistan, including against US interests’. Pakistan will continue to threaten US interests by ‘deploying new nuclear weapons capabilities, maintaining its ties to militants, restricting counterterrorism cooperation, and drawing closer to China’. Perception of its “eroding position relative to India, reinforced by endemic economic weakness and domestic security issues, almost certainly will exacerbate longheld fears of isolation and drive Islamabad’s on Trade, Health, and Postal Co-operation. The most important one pertained to Shahid Beheshti port — Phase I of the Chabahar port -- whose operational control Tehran leased to New Delhi for 18 months. This $85 million port project, situated in the Sistan Baluchistan province of Iran around 100km off China-backed Gwadar port in Pakistan’s Baluchistan, creates a highly strategic a transit route in the region. India, for long, desperately sought transit route to Afghanistan through neighbouring Pakistan. Despite being given the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status, Islamabad never reciprocated Indian gesture, rather behaving with utmost arrogance thinking of its strategic location almost like centre of the universe. Now Chabahar helps India Pak slipping out of US influence and veering towards China pursuit of actions that run counter to US goals for the region”. The US intelligence agencies’ assessment of Islamabad’s nuclear programme reveals that Pakistan continues to produce nuclear weapons and develop new types, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and longer-range ballistic missiles. ‘These new types of nuclear weapons will introduce new risks for escalation dynamics and security in the region,’ the report informed the Congress. The report apprehends that the relations between India and Pakistan could remain tense. There could be continued violence on the Line of Control along with the ‘the risk of escalation if there is another highprofile terrorist attack in India or an uptick in violence on the Line of Control’. Deliberating on India-China relations. The report spoke conveniently by-pass trade routes through Pakistan. Though port construction was painfully slow due to fear of possible US sanctions over the Iran nuclear deal, of late Washington perceives ‘no contradiction’ between US-Iran sanctions and India’s project in Chabahar. In a major geopolitical development, Indians can now invest in Iranian infrastructure and connectivity projects in rupees. Iran becomes the only country, apart from Bhutan and Nepal, to get the privilege. Ties with New Delhi now help Iran to indirectly bypass sanctions. India’s construction of the Chabahar-Zahedan rail link also boosts Iran to fully utilise the potential of Chabahar gateway for economic development. Chabahar will emerge as a major transit point for trade with central Asia in a few years. Japan has already invested and China shows keenness to invest. Despite the ongoing persistent Pak proxy war in Afghanistan with Taliban support, India has been a key ally of Kabul committing over $2 billion since the Taliban was ousted in 2001. India and Iran have also agreed to fight terrorism, extremism, illegal drug trafficking, and cyber crime to help war-ravaged Afghanistan become ‘a peaceful, secure, permanent, prosperous and pluralistic country’. India has been a key purchaser of Iranian oil and gas even through international sanctions during 2012 and 2016. Rouhani spoke of sharing Iran’s abundant oil and of tension between India and China in the region in 2019 and apprehended there could be further deterioration, despite the negotiated settlement to three-month-long border standoff on Doklam. This ‘elevates Photo Credit : Shutterstock the risk of unintentional escalation’, the report added. The report fears that overall situation in Afghanistan will ‘deteriorate modestly’ during the year 2018 in the face of persistent political instability, sustained attacks by the Taliban-led insurgency, unsteady Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) performance, and chronic financial shortfalls. The ANSF probably will maintain control of most major population centres with coalition force support, but will be put under continued pressure by the intensity and geographic scope of Taliban attacks. The report is apprehensive that the National Unity government in Kabul ‘probably will natural gas resources with India for progress and prosperity of Indian people. India is interested in Farzad-B – a major gas field in the Gulf near southern Iran - but excessive delay in awarding the contract has taxed India’s patience. Negotiations continue as Tehran drives hard bargains. There has been friendly and close cultural, economic and other relations between the people of Iran and India over many centuries. For deepening cultural and economic ties Iran has offered to simplify visa norms for Indians to help improve people- to -people contacts. India should reciprocate. Modi lauded Rouhani’s vision over deepwater Chabahar Port that opens up invaluable trade access to land-locked Afghanistan and Central Asian markets. India is already routing consignments of wheat to Afghanistan. Russia gets long-desired access to blue water Indian Ocean through Arabian Sea. Eastern European states can avail the route through Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan. Additionally, Chabahar port opens a significant transit route for India through Iran and Afghanistan to central Asia and Europe. Rouhani hailed that the current century belongs to Asia where New Delhi and Tehran could play a very important role. He questioned why India doesn’t have veto rights in the United Nations. The visit, coming just a month after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s, confirmed that India’s delicate balancing act has paid off. struggle’ to hold long-delayed parliamentary elections, now scheduled for July 2018, and to prepare for a presidential election in 2019. Afghanistan’s economic growth could stagnate at around 2.5 per cent per year, and Kabul will remain reliant on international donors for the great majority of its funding well beyond 2018. The intelligence report further suggests that Russia could bring pressure on Central Asia’s leaders to reduce engagement with Washington and support Russianled economic and security initiatives. The militant Islamic State group in Afghanistan could push Moscow to strengthen its security posture in the region. In summation it can be told that prophecy of US intelligence agencies proves Joseph Nye’s analysis that power is shifting back towards East. New alliances have evolved with economic interests governing strategic shifts and alliances. It is sad that persistent Pak support for terror has increasingly turned US- a longtime friend- into foe. Pakistan may not cut supply routes to Afghanistan for now to pose logistics problem but surely it won’t gain slipping away from American influences. Pakistan is too slow to realize that it should resist being aligned exclusively with China. The opportunity of being a faithful ally in fight against the terrorism must not be lost as the double-game strategy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound is nearing shelf life. India’s only International Newspaper www.NewDelhiTimes.com
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26 February - 4 March 2018 - 16-new-min

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