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Inside this Issue - First Eagle Funds

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a private-market intrinsic value of around<br />

$40 per share.<br />

Are the biggest risks here cyclical?<br />

AD: The health of the business is closely<br />

tied to employment, so continued rising<br />

unemployment would likely not be a positive<br />

for the share price. That could be<br />

partly offset – or exacerbated – by the<br />

direction of fuel prices, which are a big<br />

cost component.<br />

A more structural risk is that attempts<br />

to unionize the Cintas workforce gain<br />

steam with the advent of new labor laws<br />

and regulations proposed by the current<br />

administration. The company today has<br />

34,000 employees, of which around 400<br />

are unionized, so any significant shift<br />

toward a more unionized employee base<br />

could have a highly negative impact on<br />

margins. They’ve been successful in<br />

avoiding unionization so far, but it’s<br />

clearly an issue we have to keep a close<br />

eye on.<br />

You’ve spoken about the general merits<br />

today of exposure to gold. Describe the<br />

specific merits of your holding in South<br />

Africa’s Gold Fields [GFI].<br />

MM: In addition to owning gold in a<br />

vault, we are also more than willing to<br />

own it in the dirt if we get the right<br />

price. In buying shares in a company like<br />

Gold Fields, we believe we’re effectively<br />

buying the metal at a discount to its<br />

market price.<br />

The company is one of the largest global<br />

gold miners, producing around four<br />

million ounces per year from mines in<br />

South Africa, Peru, Ghana and Australia.<br />

Our valuation of gold producers basically<br />

consists of going mine by mine and looking<br />

at the reserves in the ground and the<br />

costs to extract them, taking into account<br />

things like labor cost escalations and tax<br />

leakage. In Gold Fields’ case, it has close<br />

to 85 million ounces of proven reserves<br />

overall, and its cash costs of extraction<br />

average around $500 per ounce.<br />

One thing we may do a bit differently<br />

in our analysis is that we don’t significantly<br />

mark down the value of long-<br />

June 30, 2009<br />

lived reserves, which is effectively what<br />

people do when they discount the estimated<br />

cash flows from future reserves<br />

back to today. Over long periods of<br />

time, the price of gold has gone up in<br />

nominal terms at CPI plus a little, so<br />

we’d argue that the real value of reserves<br />

ten or twenty years out is not that different<br />

from the value today.<br />

As a buyer of Gold Fields’ stock [at a<br />

recent price of $12.40], you’re paying<br />

$500 per ounce in extraction costs, plus a<br />

premium that is the market cap of the<br />

company. As we calculate it, then, you’re<br />

able to buy the gold in the ground here at<br />

a price in the high-$700s per ounce. That<br />

INVESTMENT SNAPSHOT<br />

Gold Fields<br />

(NYSE ADR: GFI)<br />

Business: Exploration, mining and processing<br />

of gold from mines in South Africa,<br />

Ghana, Australia and Peru. Proven ore<br />

reserves are nearly 85 million ounces.<br />

Share Information<br />

(@6/29/09):<br />

Price 12.39<br />

52-Week Range 4.64 – 13.99<br />

Dividend Yield 0.5%<br />

Market Cap $8.73 billion<br />

Financials (TTM):<br />

Revenue $3.52 billion<br />

Operating Profit Margin 22.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin 9.6%<br />

GFI PRICE HISTORY<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

www.valueinvestorinsight.com<br />

INVESTOR INSIGHT: <strong>First</strong> <strong>Eagle</strong><br />

2007 2008 2009<br />

compares with paying $900-1,000 on the<br />

spot market.<br />

Are you making any explicit assumption<br />

about the price of gold in your analysis?<br />

AD: No. We believe exposure to gold<br />

adds value to the portfolio as a potential<br />

hedge. With gold, we’re relative rather<br />

than absolute value investors – our buying<br />

bullion versus buying gold stocks is a<br />

function purely of what’s offering us the<br />

best price at the time.<br />

How do changes in the price of gold and<br />

changes in the prices of gold stocks correlate?<br />

THE BOTTOM LINE<br />

Relative value investors when it comes to gold, Matthew McLennan and Abhay<br />

Deshpande buy gold stocks when they’re priced to offer the underlying reserves at a<br />

discount. With Gold Fields, they estimate they’re buying the company’s gold reserves<br />

at a price in the high-$700s per ounce, some 15% less than the spot-market price.<br />

Sources: Company reports, other publicly available information<br />

Valuation Metrics<br />

(@6/29/09):<br />

GFI S&P 500<br />

Trailing P/E 24.3 35.4<br />

Forward P/E Est. 12.8 15.6<br />

Largest Institutional Owners<br />

(@3/31/09):<br />

Company % Owned<br />

Arnhold & S. Bleichroder 5.5%<br />

Tradewinds Global Inv 4.5%<br />

Van Eck Assoc 2.9%<br />

Paulson & Co 2.8%<br />

Deutsche Bank<br />

Short Interest (as of 6/10/09):<br />

2.0%<br />

Shares Short/Float n/a<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

Value Investor Insight 9<br />

5<br />

0

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