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本文件由占知智库提供 ( 更多资料请搜同名微信公众号 ) iv mapping the development of autonomy in weapon systems Figure 3.13. Countries with loitering weapons with and without autonomous 52 engagement Table 3.1. Command-and-control structure for collective systems, 32 including swarms 4. What are the drivers of, and obstacles to, the development of autonomy 57 in weapon systems? I. Introduction 57 II. Mapping the drivers: to what extent and why is the military interested in 57 autonomy? III. Mapping the obstacles to further incorporation of autonomy in weapon systems 65 IV. Conclusions 82 Box 4.1. Validation and verification: existing methods and their limitations 70 Box 4.2. The limits of affordability: Augustine’s Law and the escalating cost of 82 weapon systems Figure 4.1. Weapon systems accessibility based on financial and organizational 78 capital required for adoption Table 4.1. Possible missions for autonomous (weapon) systems according to US 62 strategic documents Table 4.2. Countries with the highest military expenditure, 2006–15 80 5. Where are the relevant innovations taking place? 85 I. Introduction 85 II. What is innovation and why is it difficult to track in the context of machine 85 autonomy? III. A science and technology perspective: autonomy and academia 89 IV. A geographical perspective: state-funded R&D 94 V. An industry perspective 105 VI. Conclusions 111 Box 5.1. Artificial general intelligence versus specialized artificial intelligence 92 Box 5.2. The robotics industry: an amorphous industry 107 Box 5.3. Challenges related to the commercialization of self-driving vehicles 108 Figure 5.1. Major research fields in machine autonomy 90 Figure 5.2. US Department of Defense (US DOD) funding distribution on 96 applied research and advanced technology development on autonomy in US fiscal year 2015 in millions of US dollars Figure 5.3. Robotic and autonomous systems industry 106 Table 5.1. Government research and development (R&D) spending in the 95 10 largest arms- producing countries and China 6. Conclusions 113 I. Key findings 113 II. Recommendations for future CCW discussions on LAWS 118 Glossary 123 Appendix 125 Table A. Air defence systems with autonomous engagement 125 Table B. Active protection systems with autonomous engagement 126 Table C. Robotic sentry weapons with autonomous engagement 127 Table D. A non-representative sample of guided munitions 127 Table E. Loitering weapons with autonomous engagement 128 Table F. A non-representative sample of unmanned combat systems with 129 autonomous capabilities in their critical functions Table G. Top 10 research institutions in the field of artificial intelligence 130 based on volume of academic publications in sample of relevant topics, 2011–16 Table H. Top 15 research institutions in the field of robotics based on volume 131 of academic publications in sample of relevant topics, 2000–16
本文件由占知智库提供 ( 更多资料请搜同名微信公众号 ) Acknowledgements This report was produced through the generous financial support from the Federal Foreign Office of Germany, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Sweden, and the Federal Department for Foreign Affairs of Switzerland. SIPRI and the authors would like to express sincere gratitude to the sponsors for the support they provide for independent research and analysis. The views and opinions in this report are solely those of the authors. The authors are also indebted to all the experts who agreed to participate in background interviews for their rich and invaluable input. The authors wish to thank, in particular, the peer-reviewers Martin Hagström, Ludovic Righetti and Raj Madhavan for their very comprehensive and constructive feedback. Finally, the authors would like to acknowledge the invaluable editorial support of Joey Fox, John Batho and Kate Blanchfield. Responsibility for the information set out in this report lies entirely with the authors. About the authors Dr Vincent Boulanin (France/Sweden) is a Researcher within Armament and Disarmament at SIPRI and the principal investigator of the SIPRI Mapping Study on the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems. He works on issues related to the production, use and control of emerging military and security technologies. Before joining SIPRI in 2014, he completed a PhD in Political Science at École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences) in Paris. Maaike Verbruggen (Netherlands) joined SIPRI in April 2016 to work as a research assistant with the SIPRI Mapping Study on the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems. She left SIPRI in November 2017 to work as a PhD researcher at the Vrije Uni versiteit in Brussels. Before joining SIPRI, she completed a Master of Philosophy degree in Peace and Conflict Studies at Oslo University.
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