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Executive summary
This report presents the conclusions of a one-year mapping study on the development
of autonomy in weapon systems. It is intended to provide diplomats and members of
civil society interested in the issue of lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) with
a better understanding of (a) the technological foundations of autonomy; (b) the state
of autonomy in existing weapon systems; (c) the drivers of, and obstacles to, further
increasing autonomy in weapon systems; and (d) the innovation ecosystems behind
the advance of autonomy in weapon systems.
I. Key findings
What are the technological foundations of autonomy?
Chapter 2 explores the technological foundations of autonomy. The main findings are
as follows.
1. Autonomy has many definitions and interpretations, but is generally understood
to be the ability of a machine to perform an intended task without human intervention
using interaction of its sensors and computer programming with the environment.
2. Autonomy relies on a diverse range of technology but primarily software. The
feasibility of autonomy depends on (a) the ability of software developers to formulate
an intended task in terms of a mathematical problem and a solution; and (b) the possibility
of mapping or modelling the operating environment in advance.
3. Autonomy can be created or improved by machine learning. The use of machine
learning in weapon systems is still experimental, as it continues to pose fundamental
problems regarding predictability.
What is the state of autonomy in weapon systems?
Chapter 3 explores the state of autonomy in deployed weapon systems and weapon
systems under development. The main findings are as follows.
1. Autonomy is already used to support various capabilities in weapon systems,
including mobility, targeting, intelligence, interoperability and health management.
2. Automated target recognition (ATR) systems, the technology that enables weapon
systems to acquire targets autonomously, has existed since the 1970s. ATR systems
still have limited perceptual and decision-making intelligence. Their performance
rapidly deteriorates as operating environments become more cluttered and weather
conditions deteriorate.
3. Existing weapon systems that can acquire and engage targets autonomously
are mostly defensive systems. These are operated under human supervision and are
intended to fire autonomously only in situations where the time of engagement is
deemed too short for humans to be able to respond.
4. Loitering weapons are the only ‘offensive’ type of weapon system that is known
to be capable of acquiring and engaging targets autonomously. The loitering time and
geographical areas of deployment, as well as the category of targets they can attack,
are determined in advance by humans.