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29032020 - El Rufai tests positive as experts insist on Total lockdown

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PAGE 8—SUNDAY VANGUARD, MARCH 29, 2020<br />

ESCALATING COVID-19:<br />

‘Huge job losses,<br />

unpaid salaries<br />

loom if crisis<br />

exceeds April 15’<br />

By Victor Young<br />

As the world battles to c<strong>on</strong>tain cor<strong>on</strong>a virus, COVID 19, pandemic, an industrial relati<strong>on</strong>s<br />

expert, a c<strong>on</strong>ciliator and former President of Petroleum and Natural G<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> Senior Staff<br />

Associati<strong>on</strong> of Nigeria, PENGASSAN, and Deputy President of Trade Uni<strong>on</strong> C<strong>on</strong>gress<br />

of Nigeria, Dr. Brown Ogbeifun, in this interview, predicts more troubles for workers and<br />

trade uni<strong>on</strong>s in Nigeria if the pandemic escalates. Excerpts:<br />

COVID 19<br />

Let me use this medium to<br />

empathize with the families of<br />

those that have fallen to the<br />

pandemic and also pray for the quick<br />

recovery of those battling the acute ph<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>es<br />

of the dise<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e right now. Pandemics are<br />

not new to the world. What is, however,<br />

new is that we do not tend to have used the<br />

experience of the p<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>t to get the world ready<br />

for the aftermaths of pandemics, which<br />

might snowball into recessi<strong>on</strong>s and<br />

depressi<strong>on</strong>s. Let us look at the simple<br />

scenarios playing out in the world.<br />

Ec<strong>on</strong>omies are managed and nurtured by<br />

people. When those people are sick, they<br />

cannot offer their services. When this<br />

involves a larg <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>pect of the populace,<br />

c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> of medical products become<br />

relatively high with abysmally low<br />

corresp<strong>on</strong>ding producti<strong>on</strong> levels in other<br />

sectors, thereby triggering a wide gap<br />

between supply and demand. Governments<br />

will evoke a <strong>lockdown</strong>, like they have d<strong>on</strong>e<br />

in order to curtail the spread of the dise<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e.<br />

When this happens, people would be out of<br />

job, border closures will occur which have<br />

attendant effects <strong>on</strong> aviati<strong>on</strong>, shipping and<br />

land transportati<strong>on</strong>, schools, industries and<br />

productive ventures outside the health<br />

systems. With inadequate supportive<br />

public utilities, which in our clime are<br />

almost near zero, lack of a robust system to<br />

provide the shock absorbers for the COVID<br />

19 shocks, the ec<strong>on</strong>omy would seriously<br />

take the hit. If the 1918 Spanish flu is<br />

anything to go by, apart from the huge and<br />

tragic human losses, <str<strong>on</strong>g>experts</str<strong>on</strong>g> have estimated<br />

that the COVID 19 outbreak could cost the<br />

global ec<strong>on</strong>omy up to $3 trilli<strong>on</strong>. Under<br />

the current circumstances, businesses are<br />

likely to default in their loan repayments,<br />

naira to the dollar h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> moved to 380/$,<br />

banks’ lending rates would drop,<br />

c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> of n<strong>on</strong>-medical products<br />

would drop and so it is with the GDP. These<br />

and many other factors could trigger<br />

ec<strong>on</strong>omic shock which, if not addressed<br />

quickly, could also trigger a recessi<strong>on</strong>. It is<br />

for the above re<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g><strong>on</strong>s that ec<strong>on</strong>omic <str<strong>on</strong>g>experts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

are urging governments to pump m<strong>on</strong>ey<br />

into their ec<strong>on</strong>omies, if not, the world might<br />

witness a worse post 2008 ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />

meltdown. That is why a country like the<br />

United States of America shall be giving<br />

about $1,000 to her about 330 milli<strong>on</strong><br />

citizens per m<strong>on</strong>th in additi<strong>on</strong> to bail outs<br />

to manufacturers and SMEs. H<strong>on</strong>g K<strong>on</strong>g<br />

h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> been quoted to be giving 10,000 H<strong>on</strong>g<br />

K<strong>on</strong>g dollars ($1,287) to her citizens. Other<br />

nati<strong>on</strong>s are either doing the same or are<br />

rele<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ing bailout packages that would give<br />

people spending power to help the ec<strong>on</strong>omy.<br />

Nigeria’s scenarios<br />

First, Nigeria started the race against<br />

COVID 19 at a disadvantage. The Group<br />

Managing Director, GMD, of the Nigerian<br />

Nati<strong>on</strong>al Petroleum<br />

Corporati<strong>on</strong>, NNPC, Mele<br />

Kyari, few weeks ago,<br />

warned Nigerians <strong>on</strong> what to<br />

expect. He said 50 cargoes<br />

of Nigeria’s crude and over<br />

12 LNG cargoes globally<br />

were yet to find buyers. With<br />

the drop of oil price below<br />

$30, coupled with the present<br />

oil war between Russia and<br />

Saudi Arabia, Nigeria h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> so<br />

many rivers to cross. For a<br />

country that runs m<strong>on</strong>olithic<br />

oil-driven ec<strong>on</strong>omy,<br />

dependent <strong>on</strong> dollar-driven<br />

importati<strong>on</strong> of petroleum<br />

products, having scores of<br />

unsold cargoes and a price<br />

slump to about $24-$25, we<br />

need prayers and luck to<br />

overcome. Unless we come<br />

out of this earlier than mid-<br />

April, we are likely to face<br />

serious challenges funding<br />

the budget, paying salaries,<br />

having m<strong>on</strong>ey to share by the<br />

FAAC and challenges<br />

meeting with our financial<br />

obligati<strong>on</strong>s locally and<br />

internati<strong>on</strong>ally. These are major shocks<br />

Nigeria h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> to deal with. There is nothing in<br />

the horiz<strong>on</strong> that provokes serious optimism,<br />

that something dr<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>tically <str<strong>on</strong>g>positive</str<strong>on</strong>g> will<br />

emerge before the middle of April.<br />

World of work<br />

There is no doubt that the world of work<br />

shall not remain the same after COVID 19.<br />

It shall have very serious implicati<strong>on</strong>s for<br />

employment, migrati<strong>on</strong> and emigrati<strong>on</strong>.<br />

Already, the Internati<strong>on</strong>al Labour<br />

Organisati<strong>on</strong>, ILO, preliminary report <strong>on</strong><br />

the c<strong>on</strong>sequences of COVID19, predicts that<br />

no fewer than 25milli<strong>on</strong> jobs will be lost to<br />

the pandemic globally. Ours in Nigeria is<br />

more horrendous because we are already<br />

overburdened by unemployment and other<br />

related issues. The sectors that will likely<br />

come out of this str<strong>on</strong>ger are<br />

pharmaceutical and health manufacturing<br />

related establishments. Aviati<strong>on</strong>, oil and<br />

g<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>, especially the downstream sector,<br />

tourism and hospitality businesses would<br />

suffer very huge setbacks. Except<br />

government comes to their rescue, many<br />

are likely to close shops. With a<br />

compounding poor energy mix, many<br />

companies, especially the<br />

SMEs, may not come out<br />

of COVID-19 alive. If this<br />

COVID-19 prol<strong>on</strong>gs over<br />

the next <strong>on</strong>e m<strong>on</strong>th and<br />

Unless we come<br />

out of this earlier<br />

than mid-April,<br />

we are likely to<br />

face serious<br />

challenges<br />

funding the<br />

budget, paying<br />

salaries<br />

companies successfully<br />

experiment and succeed<br />

with the ‘work from home<br />

method’, many that have<br />

been seeking ways of<br />

reducing their structures<br />

to a lean and mean frame<br />

would now have excuses to<br />

execute their plans over a<br />

l<strong>on</strong>g term period. We are<br />

likely to have more short<br />

term c<strong>on</strong>tracts looming,<br />

adopti<strong>on</strong> of flexible<br />

working hours and<br />

working from homes,<br />

thereby reducing<br />

overheads <strong>on</strong> recurrent<br />

expenditures. All the<br />

employer needs to do is to<br />

incre<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e bandwidths of<br />

their communicati<strong>on</strong><br />

facilities and make them<br />

available to the staff. For<br />

the oil and g<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> sector,<br />

except the situati<strong>on</strong><br />

reverses so<strong>on</strong>, there are likely to be multiple<br />

redundancies, which may strain uni<strong>on</strong> and<br />

management relati<strong>on</strong>s. Furthermore, most<br />

interacti<strong>on</strong>s in workplace are likely to be<br />

reduced to electr<strong>on</strong>ic transmissi<strong>on</strong>s of<br />

informati<strong>on</strong>, incre<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ing virtual meetings<br />

with the aid of video and ph<strong>on</strong>e<br />

c<strong>on</strong>ferencing. The goods and services<br />

deployed in the process of physical<br />

meetings would be automatically<br />

scrapped, thereby putting at risk those<br />

companies in that chain of businesses.<br />

Companies are likely to curtail flying or<br />

commuting in and out of stati<strong>on</strong>s for<br />

meetings, thereby saving costs <strong>on</strong> travels<br />

and out of stati<strong>on</strong> allowances, etc.<br />

Incidentally, some of these might cause<br />

breaches <strong>on</strong> already signed collective<br />

bargaining agreements. This could also<br />

cause large scale frustrati<strong>on</strong>s am<strong>on</strong>g<br />

employees who could turn against their<br />

uni<strong>on</strong> officials. The uni<strong>on</strong> officials in turn<br />

make life difficult for management. All<br />

these could cumulatively become c<strong>on</strong>flict<br />

stimulants which, at the end, will provoke<br />

strained relati<strong>on</strong>ships between labour and<br />

management. Invariably, I foresee a<br />

busier Ministry of Labour and<br />

Employment towards the third and fourth<br />

quarters of 2020. Despite the above, I also<br />

foresee opportunities in abundance. The<br />

unemployed could turn the work-fromhome<br />

approach to opportunities. Many<br />

of them might latch <strong>on</strong> the approach to<br />

multit<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>k by having streams of earning<br />

from so many sources, have close<br />

interacti<strong>on</strong>s and b<strong>on</strong>ding with families,<br />

work according to self-motivating plans<br />

and enjoy unrestrained access to leave<br />

days,<br />

Adhere to Okowa's<br />

directives <strong>on</strong> Covid-19,<br />

m<strong>on</strong>arch warns Uvwie<br />

residents<br />

RM Dr Emmanuel Ekemejewa Side<br />

Hso, Abe 1, the Ovie of Uvwie Kingdom,<br />

h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> warned residents and business<br />

outfits in Uvwie Kingdom to adhere strictly<br />

to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa's detectives <strong>on</strong><br />

the preventi<strong>on</strong> of the spread of the dreaded<br />

Covid - 19 to Delta State.<br />

The traditi<strong>on</strong>al ruler's warning w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>tained<br />

in a press statement issued at the<br />

Ovie of Uvwie's Palace, GRA ,<br />

Effurun,yesterday.<br />

The rele<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e stated am<strong>on</strong>gst other issues<br />

that " all gatherings , including but not limited<br />

to marriages, burials , social cerem<strong>on</strong>ies,<br />

etc involving more than 20 pers<strong>on</strong>s is<br />

hereby banned in Uvwie Kingdom till further<br />

notice.<br />

" That all families, households and pers<strong>on</strong>s<br />

should w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>h their hands with soaps<br />

intermittently and use alcohol- b<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ed sanitizers<br />

to prevent c<strong>on</strong>tacting and / or spreading<br />

of the dangerous Cor<strong>on</strong>a virus am<strong>on</strong>g<br />

Uvwie indigenes and and residents.<br />

"That all government agencies (Federal,<br />

state and local governments and corporate<br />

bodies)operating in Uvwie Kingdom<br />

should adhere strictly to the directives of<br />

Delta State government<br />

" That the Ovie of Uvwie Palace is closed<br />

for all meetings such <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> Uvwie Council of<br />

Chiefs, exco, Maduviekeyarhe, and Eghweyarhe<br />

till further notice.<br />

" All courtesy visits and / or c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong>s<br />

are also prohibited, except in an emergency<br />

situati<strong>on</strong> and / or is of urgent nati<strong>on</strong>al<br />

importance with the itinerary of not more<br />

than 10 pers<strong>on</strong>s.<br />

While urging all the inuevworo ( traditi<strong>on</strong>al<br />

mouth piece ) in the nine etches ( traditi<strong>on</strong>al<br />

administrative units )in Uvwie Kingdom<br />

to enforce the directives in their respective<br />

are<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>, the statement appreciated<br />

Governor Okowa for his quick resp<strong>on</strong>se <strong>on</strong><br />

the preventi<strong>on</strong> of the spread of the dreaded<br />

dise<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e to Delta State<br />

CORONAVIRUS:<br />

NGO embarks <strong>on</strong> relief<br />

inter<br />

erventi<strong>on</strong> for Africa<br />

In the wake of several challenges facing<br />

Africa today, including the global Cor<strong>on</strong>avirus<br />

pandemic, a n<strong>on</strong>governmental organisati<strong>on</strong>,<br />

Africa Internati<strong>on</strong>al Food Bank and Dis<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ter<br />

Relief (AFBADR) h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> said the organisati<strong>on</strong><br />

will be bringing food relief and other succor<br />

to the people of Africa.<br />

The founder, AFBADR Sir Andrew<br />

Okokhere in a statement promised that the<br />

team h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> completed arrangements to supply<br />

relief materials and food to the affected are<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

across Africa and some parts of the world.<br />

“The Africa internati<strong>on</strong>al Food Bank and<br />

Dis<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ter Relief (AFBADR) is an organizati<strong>on</strong><br />

that w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> established in the State of Tex<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>, USA<br />

with the main office in Badagry, Lagos,<br />

Nigeria. The organizati<strong>on</strong> w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> established to<br />

serve humanity through the provisi<strong>on</strong> of food<br />

and relief materials such <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> clothing, medicine<br />

and general <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>sistance to cover the need of<br />

the hungry people in Africa.<br />

“We have been in the forefr<strong>on</strong>t of this kind of<br />

project which started sometime ago in the<br />

United States during the hurricane and flood<br />

dis<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ter. Bey<strong>on</strong>d that, we deem it necessary to<br />

reach out to Africa in this turbulent period of<br />

war, ethnic wrangles and health challenges<br />

including the Cor<strong>on</strong>avirus pandemic that h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />

become a global affair.”<br />

Okokhere also disclosed that the<br />

organisati<strong>on</strong> is a reputable NGO that h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />

backing of American government with the<br />

support of Nigerian traditi<strong>on</strong>al rulers like the<br />

Oba of Badagry, and pers<strong>on</strong>alities across the<br />

globe,” says Sir Andrew.

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