29032020 - El Rufai tests positive as experts insist on Total lockdown
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PAGE 8—SUNDAY VANGUARD, MARCH 29, 2020<br />
ESCALATING COVID-19:<br />
‘Huge job losses,<br />
unpaid salaries<br />
loom if crisis<br />
exceeds April 15’<br />
By Victor Young<br />
As the world battles to c<strong>on</strong>tain cor<strong>on</strong>a virus, COVID 19, pandemic, an industrial relati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
expert, a c<strong>on</strong>ciliator and former President of Petroleum and Natural G<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> Senior Staff<br />
Associati<strong>on</strong> of Nigeria, PENGASSAN, and Deputy President of Trade Uni<strong>on</strong> C<strong>on</strong>gress<br />
of Nigeria, Dr. Brown Ogbeifun, in this interview, predicts more troubles for workers and<br />
trade uni<strong>on</strong>s in Nigeria if the pandemic escalates. Excerpts:<br />
COVID 19<br />
Let me use this medium to<br />
empathize with the families of<br />
those that have fallen to the<br />
pandemic and also pray for the quick<br />
recovery of those battling the acute ph<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>es<br />
of the dise<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e right now. Pandemics are<br />
not new to the world. What is, however,<br />
new is that we do not tend to have used the<br />
experience of the p<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>t to get the world ready<br />
for the aftermaths of pandemics, which<br />
might snowball into recessi<strong>on</strong>s and<br />
depressi<strong>on</strong>s. Let us look at the simple<br />
scenarios playing out in the world.<br />
Ec<strong>on</strong>omies are managed and nurtured by<br />
people. When those people are sick, they<br />
cannot offer their services. When this<br />
involves a larg <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>pect of the populace,<br />
c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> of medical products become<br />
relatively high with abysmally low<br />
corresp<strong>on</strong>ding producti<strong>on</strong> levels in other<br />
sectors, thereby triggering a wide gap<br />
between supply and demand. Governments<br />
will evoke a <strong>lockdown</strong>, like they have d<strong>on</strong>e<br />
in order to curtail the spread of the dise<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e.<br />
When this happens, people would be out of<br />
job, border closures will occur which have<br />
attendant effects <strong>on</strong> aviati<strong>on</strong>, shipping and<br />
land transportati<strong>on</strong>, schools, industries and<br />
productive ventures outside the health<br />
systems. With inadequate supportive<br />
public utilities, which in our clime are<br />
almost near zero, lack of a robust system to<br />
provide the shock absorbers for the COVID<br />
19 shocks, the ec<strong>on</strong>omy would seriously<br />
take the hit. If the 1918 Spanish flu is<br />
anything to go by, apart from the huge and<br />
tragic human losses, <str<strong>on</strong>g>experts</str<strong>on</strong>g> have estimated<br />
that the COVID 19 outbreak could cost the<br />
global ec<strong>on</strong>omy up to $3 trilli<strong>on</strong>. Under<br />
the current circumstances, businesses are<br />
likely to default in their loan repayments,<br />
naira to the dollar h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> moved to 380/$,<br />
banks’ lending rates would drop,<br />
c<strong>on</strong>sumpti<strong>on</strong> of n<strong>on</strong>-medical products<br />
would drop and so it is with the GDP. These<br />
and many other factors could trigger<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>omic shock which, if not addressed<br />
quickly, could also trigger a recessi<strong>on</strong>. It is<br />
for the above re<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g><strong>on</strong>s that ec<strong>on</strong>omic <str<strong>on</strong>g>experts</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
are urging governments to pump m<strong>on</strong>ey<br />
into their ec<strong>on</strong>omies, if not, the world might<br />
witness a worse post 2008 ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />
meltdown. That is why a country like the<br />
United States of America shall be giving<br />
about $1,000 to her about 330 milli<strong>on</strong><br />
citizens per m<strong>on</strong>th in additi<strong>on</strong> to bail outs<br />
to manufacturers and SMEs. H<strong>on</strong>g K<strong>on</strong>g<br />
h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> been quoted to be giving 10,000 H<strong>on</strong>g<br />
K<strong>on</strong>g dollars ($1,287) to her citizens. Other<br />
nati<strong>on</strong>s are either doing the same or are<br />
rele<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ing bailout packages that would give<br />
people spending power to help the ec<strong>on</strong>omy.<br />
Nigeria’s scenarios<br />
First, Nigeria started the race against<br />
COVID 19 at a disadvantage. The Group<br />
Managing Director, GMD, of the Nigerian<br />
Nati<strong>on</strong>al Petroleum<br />
Corporati<strong>on</strong>, NNPC, Mele<br />
Kyari, few weeks ago,<br />
warned Nigerians <strong>on</strong> what to<br />
expect. He said 50 cargoes<br />
of Nigeria’s crude and over<br />
12 LNG cargoes globally<br />
were yet to find buyers. With<br />
the drop of oil price below<br />
$30, coupled with the present<br />
oil war between Russia and<br />
Saudi Arabia, Nigeria h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> so<br />
many rivers to cross. For a<br />
country that runs m<strong>on</strong>olithic<br />
oil-driven ec<strong>on</strong>omy,<br />
dependent <strong>on</strong> dollar-driven<br />
importati<strong>on</strong> of petroleum<br />
products, having scores of<br />
unsold cargoes and a price<br />
slump to about $24-$25, we<br />
need prayers and luck to<br />
overcome. Unless we come<br />
out of this earlier than mid-<br />
April, we are likely to face<br />
serious challenges funding<br />
the budget, paying salaries,<br />
having m<strong>on</strong>ey to share by the<br />
FAAC and challenges<br />
meeting with our financial<br />
obligati<strong>on</strong>s locally and<br />
internati<strong>on</strong>ally. These are major shocks<br />
Nigeria h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> to deal with. There is nothing in<br />
the horiz<strong>on</strong> that provokes serious optimism,<br />
that something dr<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>tically <str<strong>on</strong>g>positive</str<strong>on</strong>g> will<br />
emerge before the middle of April.<br />
World of work<br />
There is no doubt that the world of work<br />
shall not remain the same after COVID 19.<br />
It shall have very serious implicati<strong>on</strong>s for<br />
employment, migrati<strong>on</strong> and emigrati<strong>on</strong>.<br />
Already, the Internati<strong>on</strong>al Labour<br />
Organisati<strong>on</strong>, ILO, preliminary report <strong>on</strong><br />
the c<strong>on</strong>sequences of COVID19, predicts that<br />
no fewer than 25milli<strong>on</strong> jobs will be lost to<br />
the pandemic globally. Ours in Nigeria is<br />
more horrendous because we are already<br />
overburdened by unemployment and other<br />
related issues. The sectors that will likely<br />
come out of this str<strong>on</strong>ger are<br />
pharmaceutical and health manufacturing<br />
related establishments. Aviati<strong>on</strong>, oil and<br />
g<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>, especially the downstream sector,<br />
tourism and hospitality businesses would<br />
suffer very huge setbacks. Except<br />
government comes to their rescue, many<br />
are likely to close shops. With a<br />
compounding poor energy mix, many<br />
companies, especially the<br />
SMEs, may not come out<br />
of COVID-19 alive. If this<br />
COVID-19 prol<strong>on</strong>gs over<br />
the next <strong>on</strong>e m<strong>on</strong>th and<br />
Unless we come<br />
out of this earlier<br />
than mid-April,<br />
we are likely to<br />
face serious<br />
challenges<br />
funding the<br />
budget, paying<br />
salaries<br />
companies successfully<br />
experiment and succeed<br />
with the ‘work from home<br />
method’, many that have<br />
been seeking ways of<br />
reducing their structures<br />
to a lean and mean frame<br />
would now have excuses to<br />
execute their plans over a<br />
l<strong>on</strong>g term period. We are<br />
likely to have more short<br />
term c<strong>on</strong>tracts looming,<br />
adopti<strong>on</strong> of flexible<br />
working hours and<br />
working from homes,<br />
thereby reducing<br />
overheads <strong>on</strong> recurrent<br />
expenditures. All the<br />
employer needs to do is to<br />
incre<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e bandwidths of<br />
their communicati<strong>on</strong><br />
facilities and make them<br />
available to the staff. For<br />
the oil and g<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> sector,<br />
except the situati<strong>on</strong><br />
reverses so<strong>on</strong>, there are likely to be multiple<br />
redundancies, which may strain uni<strong>on</strong> and<br />
management relati<strong>on</strong>s. Furthermore, most<br />
interacti<strong>on</strong>s in workplace are likely to be<br />
reduced to electr<strong>on</strong>ic transmissi<strong>on</strong>s of<br />
informati<strong>on</strong>, incre<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ing virtual meetings<br />
with the aid of video and ph<strong>on</strong>e<br />
c<strong>on</strong>ferencing. The goods and services<br />
deployed in the process of physical<br />
meetings would be automatically<br />
scrapped, thereby putting at risk those<br />
companies in that chain of businesses.<br />
Companies are likely to curtail flying or<br />
commuting in and out of stati<strong>on</strong>s for<br />
meetings, thereby saving costs <strong>on</strong> travels<br />
and out of stati<strong>on</strong> allowances, etc.<br />
Incidentally, some of these might cause<br />
breaches <strong>on</strong> already signed collective<br />
bargaining agreements. This could also<br />
cause large scale frustrati<strong>on</strong>s am<strong>on</strong>g<br />
employees who could turn against their<br />
uni<strong>on</strong> officials. The uni<strong>on</strong> officials in turn<br />
make life difficult for management. All<br />
these could cumulatively become c<strong>on</strong>flict<br />
stimulants which, at the end, will provoke<br />
strained relati<strong>on</strong>ships between labour and<br />
management. Invariably, I foresee a<br />
busier Ministry of Labour and<br />
Employment towards the third and fourth<br />
quarters of 2020. Despite the above, I also<br />
foresee opportunities in abundance. The<br />
unemployed could turn the work-fromhome<br />
approach to opportunities. Many<br />
of them might latch <strong>on</strong> the approach to<br />
multit<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>k by having streams of earning<br />
from so many sources, have close<br />
interacti<strong>on</strong>s and b<strong>on</strong>ding with families,<br />
work according to self-motivating plans<br />
and enjoy unrestrained access to leave<br />
days,<br />
Adhere to Okowa's<br />
directives <strong>on</strong> Covid-19,<br />
m<strong>on</strong>arch warns Uvwie<br />
residents<br />
RM Dr Emmanuel Ekemejewa Side<br />
Hso, Abe 1, the Ovie of Uvwie Kingdom,<br />
h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> warned residents and business<br />
outfits in Uvwie Kingdom to adhere strictly<br />
to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa's detectives <strong>on</strong><br />
the preventi<strong>on</strong> of the spread of the dreaded<br />
Covid - 19 to Delta State.<br />
The traditi<strong>on</strong>al ruler's warning w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>tained<br />
in a press statement issued at the<br />
Ovie of Uvwie's Palace, GRA ,<br />
Effurun,yesterday.<br />
The rele<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e stated am<strong>on</strong>gst other issues<br />
that " all gatherings , including but not limited<br />
to marriages, burials , social cerem<strong>on</strong>ies,<br />
etc involving more than 20 pers<strong>on</strong>s is<br />
hereby banned in Uvwie Kingdom till further<br />
notice.<br />
" That all families, households and pers<strong>on</strong>s<br />
should w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>h their hands with soaps<br />
intermittently and use alcohol- b<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ed sanitizers<br />
to prevent c<strong>on</strong>tacting and / or spreading<br />
of the dangerous Cor<strong>on</strong>a virus am<strong>on</strong>g<br />
Uvwie indigenes and and residents.<br />
"That all government agencies (Federal,<br />
state and local governments and corporate<br />
bodies)operating in Uvwie Kingdom<br />
should adhere strictly to the directives of<br />
Delta State government<br />
" That the Ovie of Uvwie Palace is closed<br />
for all meetings such <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> Uvwie Council of<br />
Chiefs, exco, Maduviekeyarhe, and Eghweyarhe<br />
till further notice.<br />
" All courtesy visits and / or c<strong>on</strong>sultati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
are also prohibited, except in an emergency<br />
situati<strong>on</strong> and / or is of urgent nati<strong>on</strong>al<br />
importance with the itinerary of not more<br />
than 10 pers<strong>on</strong>s.<br />
While urging all the inuevworo ( traditi<strong>on</strong>al<br />
mouth piece ) in the nine etches ( traditi<strong>on</strong>al<br />
administrative units )in Uvwie Kingdom<br />
to enforce the directives in their respective<br />
are<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>, the statement appreciated<br />
Governor Okowa for his quick resp<strong>on</strong>se <strong>on</strong><br />
the preventi<strong>on</strong> of the spread of the dreaded<br />
dise<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>e to Delta State<br />
CORONAVIRUS:<br />
NGO embarks <strong>on</strong> relief<br />
inter<br />
erventi<strong>on</strong> for Africa<br />
In the wake of several challenges facing<br />
Africa today, including the global Cor<strong>on</strong>avirus<br />
pandemic, a n<strong>on</strong>governmental organisati<strong>on</strong>,<br />
Africa Internati<strong>on</strong>al Food Bank and Dis<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ter<br />
Relief (AFBADR) h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> said the organisati<strong>on</strong><br />
will be bringing food relief and other succor<br />
to the people of Africa.<br />
The founder, AFBADR Sir Andrew<br />
Okokhere in a statement promised that the<br />
team h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> completed arrangements to supply<br />
relief materials and food to the affected are<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
across Africa and some parts of the world.<br />
“The Africa internati<strong>on</strong>al Food Bank and<br />
Dis<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ter Relief (AFBADR) is an organizati<strong>on</strong><br />
that w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> established in the State of Tex<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>, USA<br />
with the main office in Badagry, Lagos,<br />
Nigeria. The organizati<strong>on</strong> w<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> established to<br />
serve humanity through the provisi<strong>on</strong> of food<br />
and relief materials such <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> clothing, medicine<br />
and general <str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>sistance to cover the need of<br />
the hungry people in Africa.<br />
“We have been in the forefr<strong>on</strong>t of this kind of<br />
project which started sometime ago in the<br />
United States during the hurricane and flood<br />
dis<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g>ter. Bey<strong>on</strong>d that, we deem it necessary to<br />
reach out to Africa in this turbulent period of<br />
war, ethnic wrangles and health challenges<br />
including the Cor<strong>on</strong>avirus pandemic that h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
become a global affair.”<br />
Okokhere also disclosed that the<br />
organisati<strong>on</strong> is a reputable NGO that h<str<strong>on</strong>g>as</str<strong>on</strong>g> the<br />
backing of American government with the<br />
support of Nigerian traditi<strong>on</strong>al rulers like the<br />
Oba of Badagry, and pers<strong>on</strong>alities across the<br />
globe,” says Sir Andrew.