07.08.2020 Views

Opportunity - Issue 94

Quarterly journal for business and industry in South Africa Business unusual It has been estimated that the economy will take two to three years to recover from Covid-19 and the subsequent economic collapse. From now to there, the journey will indeed be business as unusual. My pledge, as the new editor of Opportunity magazine, is to provide cutting-edge content that guides our readers on how to rise above the current business trajectory and to circumvent the consequences that are now laid before them. In this issue, Mike Townshend from Foord Asset Management writes, in ‘The evolving politics of oil’ (page 8), that oil has caused wars, assassinations, man-made disasters, coups and still affects every person in the world today. On page 10, Rebecca Major from leading global law firm, Herbert Smith Freehills, shares her insight on how to navigate African oil and M&A deals in these volatile times. Both of these writers will present more on these topics at Africa Oil Week. The transport services sector has been severely affected by the pandemic, but help is at hand. Digital transformation is set to disrupt the sector – technology has transformed the railway industry globally and implementing technological innovations could be a game-changer for rail transport in South Africa. Read more on page 17. Celebrating Women’s Month in August, Opportunity interviews the newly appointed CEO of Petroleum Agency South Africa, Dr Phindile Masangane (page 12), as well as founder and owner of Nemesis Accounting, Shani Naidoo (page 14). The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) has a pivotal role to play in guiding the business of its 22 000 members. The Chamber believes that businesses should actively engage in the strategic and recovery implementation processes towards inclusive growth – read more in the CEO’s message on page 4. Let’s work together in building a resilient, risk-savvy and formidable nation. Alexis Knipe, Editor

Quarterly journal for business and industry in South Africa

Business unusual

It has been estimated that the economy will take two to three years to recover from Covid-19 and the subsequent economic collapse. From now to there, the journey will indeed be business as unusual. My pledge, as the new editor of Opportunity magazine, is to provide cutting-edge content that guides our readers on how to rise above the current business trajectory and to circumvent the consequences that are now laid before them.

In this issue, Mike Townshend from Foord Asset Management writes, in ‘The evolving politics of oil’ (page 8), that oil has caused wars, assassinations, man-made disasters, coups and still affects every person in the world today. On page 10, Rebecca Major from leading global law firm, Herbert Smith Freehills, shares her insight on how to navigate African oil and M&A deals in these volatile times. Both of these writers will present more on these topics at Africa Oil Week.

The transport services sector has been severely affected by the pandemic, but help is at hand. Digital transformation is set to disrupt the sector – technology has transformed the railway industry globally and implementing technological innovations could be a game-changer for rail transport in South Africa. Read more on page 17.

Celebrating Women’s Month in August, Opportunity interviews the newly appointed CEO of Petroleum Agency South Africa, Dr Phindile Masangane (page 12), as well as founder and owner of Nemesis Accounting, Shani Naidoo (page 14).

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) has a pivotal role to play in guiding the business of its 22 000 members. The Chamber believes that businesses should actively engage in the strategic and recovery implementation processes towards inclusive growth – read more in the CEO’s message on page 4.

Let’s work together in building a resilient, risk-savvy and formidable nation.

Alexis Knipe, Editor

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ENERGY<br />

MATERIAL BREACH OF REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES<br />

Representation and warranties generally do not include<br />

any kind of comfort concerning oil and gas prices,<br />

availability of reserves, production levels or political<br />

issues. However, current circumstances might give rise<br />

to breaches such as:<br />

• breach of a warranty to ensure that there is no<br />

event of default under any of the existing financing<br />

arrangements: low oil prices and/or a suspension of<br />

production may trigger events of default relating to<br />

financial covenants;<br />

• breach of material project contracts (for nonperformance,<br />

non-payment); and<br />

• the target is unable to pay debts as they fall due.<br />

PRICE ADJUSTMENT<br />

For many deals, the price for the asset/company is fixed<br />

on a past date (a locked box date or retroactive effective<br />

date). In this case, there is a risk of value fluctuations<br />

____ __ ___ __ _ _<br />

As African countries are<br />

feeling economically<br />

more fragile, some<br />

will become more<br />

protectionist in terms<br />

of foreign investments<br />

___ __ ___ __ _ _ _<br />

between that date and the date of the actual closing<br />

of the deal. This can be significant where oil and gas<br />

prices or production have significantly decreased since<br />

that date. The parties may still have to close at the<br />

original price in these circumstances.<br />

If on the other hand the price is calculated based on<br />

the value at the closing date, then the parties may be<br />

better protected against any sudden increase or decrease<br />

in oil and gas prices or production levels. Deferred price<br />

mechanisms based on future performance might also<br />

be helpful. Parties may become being more creative<br />

with pricing mechanisms in future deals, with both<br />

parties looking to mitigate their risks.<br />

FOREIGN CURRENCY<br />

Some countries have found themselves<br />

short of foreign currency, particularly those<br />

countries that are dependent on exports of<br />

goods (Ethiopia is an example) or oil and gas<br />

revenues (such as Nigeria and Angola). This<br />

means that African buyers have struggled<br />

to be able to obtain the foreign currency<br />

necessary to do deals. It has also meant that<br />

foreign investors are concerned about their<br />

investments becoming cash trapped in a<br />

country. These issues have arisen on top<br />

of the already existing issues around the<br />

tightening of regulations in certain regions<br />

(like the CEMAC region) concerning the<br />

ability to maintain offshore bank accounts.<br />

PARTNER RISK<br />

Many foreign investments in Africa are through<br />

joint ventures with local partners and/or with other<br />

international investors either for legal reasons or for<br />

business reasons, or a combination of both. Many foreign<br />

companies are also dependent on local contractors<br />

and suppliers.<br />

Covid-19, combined with the oil and gas crisis, has not<br />

only made target companies and projects more fragile<br />

but has also made certain investors and contractors,<br />

particularly smaller investors and contractors, more<br />

fragile. In a company or project where the financial<br />

stability of each of the stakeholders is important (for<br />

example, an entity requiring shareholder funding<br />

or dependent on shareholder services), this can be<br />

a real issue. Foreign investors are therefore being<br />

increasingly diligent both with new investments and<br />

in relation to existing investments.<br />

These circumstances may provide opportunities for<br />

larger investors to acquire bigger stakes in companies<br />

and projects. However, it may also require them to<br />

acquire additional stakes to protect their investments<br />

from the financial difficulties of their partners rather<br />

than because they wanted a larger stake.<br />

Where local partners or contractors have financial<br />

difficulties, international investors may prefer to<br />

support them financially rather than buy them out,<br />

because it makes legal or business sense to do so.<br />

___ __<br />

Rebecca Major,<br />

Partner, Herbert<br />

Smith Freehills LLP<br />

Herbert Smith<br />

Freehills is one of the<br />

world’s leading global<br />

law firms, with<br />

27 offices globally.<br />

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE ISSUES<br />

Before Covid-19 and the oil price collapse, ESG was the<br />

key point in the minds of most oil and gas companies<br />

and should not be forgotten. Sellers looking for a<br />

clean exit, or buyers looking to avoid having to take<br />

on past issues, should negotiate pre- and post-closing<br />

indemnities carefully on this basis.<br />

NATIONAL SENTIMENT<br />

As African countries are feeling economically more<br />

fragile, some will become more protectionist in terms<br />

of foreign investments (increasing tax rates, etc).<br />

However, this is not universally the case and many<br />

countries have realised that they need the support of<br />

others either regionally or internationally.<br />

• To hear more from<br />

Herbert Smith<br />

Freehills about<br />

negotiating African<br />

M&A deals, attend<br />

the Finance Forum<br />

at AOW 2020.<br />

www.opportunityonline.co.za | 11

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