Hola MaHigh-School - September 2020

Russia saw a jump in living standard of 300% when Putin became president.
This was an unprecedented increase and created a cult around
Putin. Russia came off a low base, but looking at Russia now, we see a
‘normal’ European country with all the usual trimmings of a growing
middle class.
Admittedly, the picture has started to crack of late. Sanctions over
Crimea are biting and the crackdown on dissent within Russia does not
look good in the eyes of the larger population.
Russia itself is dependent on its former republics. Ukraine is a transit
country for natural gas to Germany, Kazakhstan is the oil capital of Russia
(still!), Belarus is the food chamber and so on.
This means Russia has a keen interest in the governments.
If they support the conservative Lukashenko, they are on the road to
oppression and protests might escalate in Russia itself.
If they abandon Lukashenko, they have a chance to create a prosperous
state (again). But then the greater Russian population might also
like to increase their lot – meaning similar protests.
The bigger question is: Can Putin hold it all together by either force
(Lukashenko style) or reform (democracy and cooperation). My guess:
the protests are too huge to ignore or suppress. Lukashenko is going!