Harpoon 4 Naval Sitrep 37 Iran

Issue #37 October 2009
(Natanz scenario, cont fm page 4)
As the raid approaches Iranian airspace,
it will descend to medium altitude 200 nm
from the IP (Initial Point), near Orumiyeh,
Iran. The mountainous terrain will screen
the strike from Iranian air defense radars
until they actually reach the IP.
Israel has five Boeing KC-707 tankers
in service. As the raid descends to medium
altitude, the tankers will top off their tanks,
timing the operation to finish just before
they reach Iranian territory. Their mission
completed, the tankers will return by the
same route to Israel, refuel, then take station
off the Turkish coast to await the raid’s
return.
At the IP, the raid turns southeast and
descends to low altitude, remaining at cruise
speed to conserve fuel. Those aircraft tasked
with fighter or SAM suppression would
break away (if they haven’t done so earlier)
and make their attacks, returning independently
to Israel.
It is possible the raid will be attacked
by Iranian fighters before they reach Natanz.
The escorting F-16Is will maneuver to
engage the Iranians while the F-15I strikers
stay at cruise. The F-15Is can accelerate to
full military power approximately halfway to
Natanz, or they can remain at cruise speed
to conserve fuel.
At Natanz, the attackers will quickly
climb to medium altitude and loft their
GPS-guided weapons at the targets. This
profile keeps them away from the shortrange
AAA that surrounds the site, maximizes
penetration of the GPS-guided weapons
(the loft trajectory will take the weapons
into the high altitude band before they
descend), and minimizes time at full power.
The strikers will need full military power for
no more than a minute for the climb to medium
altitude. The loft trajectory also gives
the GPS-weapons the necessary time to find
their satellite signals and guide the weapon.
Now headed away from the target and
clean, the aircraft return to Israel along
the same route. They may use full military
power for a short while during egress, but
would return to cruise settings as quickly as
possible.
This profile, with the outbound inflight
refuel, provides enough fuel to reach the
target and return to Ramat David airbase.
It allows 12 minutes of combat at FMP for
the F-16Is and 44 minutes of FMP for the
F-15Is.
Iranian Forces: The Pasdaran are in overall
command of security at Natanz.
Refer to the Natanz Facility Brief for a
detailed description of the installation and
its defenses.
The Iranian player also has 70 points
that he can spend on customizing his defense.
See page 10.
Iranian Orders: Defend the Natanz installation.
Setup:
1) Both players should review the briefing
materials. These include a description of
the Natanz facility, an article on the Iranian
air defense forces, and the procedures for
using the nodal air movement chart.
2) Both players choose from their lists
of special upgrades.
3) The Israeli player plans his strike,
while the Iranian player arranges his defenses.
The Israeli player has the more complex
task.
4) The raid takes off. While the raid
is enroute, the Shavit aircraft executes a
“Suter” (network) attack on the Iranian air
defenses. If successful, the attack will degrade
the air defense’s reaction. If the Israeli
player wants to make the attack, he rolls
2D6 on the following table just before the
strike reaches the IP:
2: Iranians alerted, +2 on the
GCI fighter table
3-6: No effect.
7-11: Network degraded, -1 on
the GCI fighter table.
12: Network hacked, -2 on the
GCI fighter table.
[Ed Note: If the players have a referee,
he should have each player roll one of the
D6, so they have some hint of the attack’s
success, but only the referee knows the true
effect.
5) The players use the nodal movement
chart on page 14 to resolve the raid’s
approach and the reaction of the Iranian air
defenses.
6) The Israeli player resolves the attack
on the target.
7) The players use the nodal movement
chart again to see whether the Israelis are
attacked on the way out.
Victory Conditions: There are no victory
conditions for this scenario. It is likely that
the Israelis will be able to cripple or destroy
the Natanz facility, and the players can use
the “Criticality Points” provided on page 7
to see what the damage is. But the military
result has a larger political purpose, which is
outside the scope of the scenario.
Aside from the level of destruction at
the facility itself, discussion points include:
• Israeli losses. How many planes were
lost, and especially what happened to the
pilots? Players can use section 8.2.1 of the
Harpoon rules to resolve the fate of any aircraft
hit in the scenario. Did they manage to
leave the scene? Israeli CSAR forces would
be in position for recovery. A captured
Israeli pilot gives the Iranians some major
political theater.
• Conversely, what was the performance
of the Iranian defenses? If they did not do
well, and especially if they lost several fighters,
the leadership could suffer a political hit
domestically. The Pasdaran is responsible for
the defense of the nuclear sites. If they don’t
defend them, they look bad. There can be
disadvantages for both parties for being so
politically linked to the country’s leadership.
Naval SITREP Page 4
Doug Birtles (Order #25307632)
Israeli F-16I Soufa, showing the conformal tanks.