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16 — Vanguard, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2022 On Buhari, Sanwo-Olu’s economic prescriptions By ADEWALE KUPOLUYI THE 2022 Lagos International Trade Fair provided another opportunity to examine the nation's economy, as key players in the public and private sectors identified major challenges and proposed solutions for how things can improve. For the Nigerian President, Muhammadu Buhari the trade fair was the right time to showcase the nation’s capacity to produce to global standards and to export. The President, who made this known at the opening ceremony, at the Tafawa Balewa Square, Lagos, which was the 36th in succession, was put together by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, LCCI. The President, who was represented at the occasion by the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Otunba Adeniyi Adebayo, said that the essence of trade was to connect people and businesses to create value. He said that "through increased trade, our goals of job creation, gross domestic product growth, increased foreign exchange earnings, and reduced insecurity are actualized. " The development of export trade takes this a step further and helps our nation reach its economic diversification goals, he said. Buhari said Nigeria had signed and ratified the agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area, AfCFTA, to boost intra-African trade and integrate the continent's market, which consists of 1.3 billion consumers, He said the country’s international trade was currently doing well, with a trade surplus in excess of N3.2 trillion. The president informed us that the public sector would continue to drive investment into infrastructural development, encourage access to low-cost financing, and provide fiscal incentives to companies wishing to manufacture products for sale. These incentives include three- to five-year tax holidays for enterprises as pioneer industries; tax-free operations, and capital allowances for agriculture, manufacturing, and engineering within the free trade zones. Furthermore, the Federal Government has taken much-needed steps to improve the trading environment through the creation of special economic zones, with 17 operational special economic zones, SEZs, of which 14 are general economic zones that support export processing, large-scale manufacturing, tourism, food processing, and oil and gasrelated activities, among others. The Federal Government has also provided funding support through the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and the Bank of Industry, BOI. Specifically, the CBN has initiated programmes to encourage domestic production and exports, some of which include the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, FGN Special Intervention Fund for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, MSMEs and the N150 billion Targeted Credit Facility. The Federal Government distributed a total of N785 billion through BOI and also provided fiscal incentives to businesses across multiple sectors through the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget, and National Planning for the Pay-As- You-Earn, PAYE, and Company Income Tax, CIT, taxes, which are among the lowest in the world, while small businesses with an annual turnover of less than N25 million are exempt from Company Income Tax.A lower company income tax rate of 20 percent is also provided for companies whose yearly turnover is between N25 million and N100 million, the president said. Buhari also told the audience that the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Investment was reviewing and updating the country's National Trade Policy in order to firmly establish Nigeria as a worldwide trading hub and a regional leader, and that the policy seeks to maximise economic output, expand infrastructural development, promote business growth, industrialization, and entrepreneurship, and he called for collaboration among relevant parties to increase trade in Nigeria. Speaking at the occasion, the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, applauded the efforts of the leadership of the LCCI in bringing together its members, who he said remain the fulcrum of business in Nigeria. "In Nigeria, this sector is the heartbeat of our industrial and economic development, and in Lagos State, MSMEs have significantly contributed to employment With a population of over 22 million, Lagos is the fifth fastest growing city in the world, which is why it is an investor's delight creation, value addition, income generation, and appreciable poverty reduction. Therefore, there is no doubt in my mind that MSMEs are crucial to our economic growth and stability in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in the promotion of creativity and decent work for all. As a government, our administration’s priority is the business sector, with a particular focus on MSMEs. With a population of over 22 million, Lagos is the fifth fastest growing city in the world, which is why it is an investor's delight. Lagos accounts for over 25 percent of Send Opinions & Letters to: opinions1234@yahoo.com the national gross domestic product (GDP), and 65 percent of Nigeria’s industrial and commercial activities. "I humbly request that you, LCCI, continue to initiate and develop more opportunities for assisting businesses, particularly the young corps of entrepreneurs who have great potentials for rewriting our state's business history and revitalising Nigeria's economic fortune. Undoubtedly, our continued partnership cannot, but, yield bountiful returns. Let me further assure you that we shall not rest on our oars until business prosperity is guaranteed. This is because our administration is not oblivious of the fact that for us to achieve our dream of becoming Africa’s model megacity by 2025, we must continue to improve our business climate so as to attract more private sector investments, create jobs and increase productivity", Sanwo- Olu said. The President of LCCI, Asiwaju (Dr.) Michael Olawale-Cole affirmed that the current edition of the trade fair underscored the importance of relationships and networking among businesses for the purposes of wealth creation as it underlines the value of interactions between producers, service providers, and endusers. Olawale-Cole stated that economic conditions had been challenging even as the economy sustains recovery from the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, pandemic, navigating through shocks from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and climate change in the form of devastating floods across the country, as he charged investors to continue to demonstrate resilience and determination to forge ahead despite challenges. Continues online:www.vanguardngr.com •Dr. Kupoluyi, a social analyst, wrote from the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, FUNAAB, Ogun State Arise TV presidential town hall meeting and the trophy By MOHAMMED DANBATTA AS the dust begins to settle on the Arise TV Presidential town hall meeting, political observers and Nigerians who followed the programme dispassionately have been unanimous in awarding Governor Ifeanyi Okowa the highest mark.The received opinion is that Okowa who is the vice presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, standing in for Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate, showed superior intelligence, leadership composure and demonstrated a far more pragmatic approach to solving the many problems of insecurity, economic downturn, disunity, and others confronting the nation. The town hall meeting was organised in concert with the Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD, and it turned out to be the first major encounter between the major contenders in the 2023 presidential election and the public. The candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was absent and did not have any representation. This did not sit well with many Nigerians, who voiced their concern that Tinubu has made himself too evasive in a manner unbecoming of a man who wants to lead the nation in the 21st century. Early dissent from the audience, including from one or two presidential candidates present in the hall, to the effect that Okowa representing Atiku was an anomaly, was smartly doused by Okowa himself. He did not fret. He showed composure while making his explanation. He said he read the invitation letter to Atiku who was overseas for another important engagement. Furthermore, he claimed that there was no mention of a vice presidential candidate standing in for the presidential candidate in the letter. Besides, he took further steps by calling the organisers on the possibility that Atiku may not be back in the country at the time the programme was scheduled to kick off. On this, he got the approval of the organisers to stand in for his boss. He stated that the presidency is one and that the vice president must and should be as fit and capable as the president because, according to the constitution, the president may need to transmit power to the vice president at some point in time, thus the overriding need for the vice presidential candidate to be such a person who can competently stand in for the presidential candidate. He made the point very clear: Neither Atiku nor himself breached any law or rule as it was not specified in the invitation letter that only the presidential candidate should be present at the meeting. His explanation thawed the tension inside the hall. But this ought not to even be an issue. Atiku talks, speaks and has been engaging various focus groups, meeting with the media for interviews, both local and foreign. He would have been physically present if it hadn't been for his earlier scheduled overseas engagement. Back to Okowa’s performance. The PDP vice presidential candidate showed a better grasp of how to turn around the national economy using the model he created in Delta as governor. He emphasised capacity building and skill acquisition not just for the youth but also for the women. He said training of the youths and women must have two critical components: training of the mind and training of the hands. Furthermore, he showed a link between an untrained, booming population and insecurity. When the mind is trained and liberated, it will help check population explosion, and this will directly address the challenge of out-of-school children, parents having children they cannot take care of. He argued that a liberated mind and a skilled hand that are well-equipped cannot be easily recruited into gangsterism. He was not merely grandstanding. He was not just being politically flippant to score cheap points or to impress. He showed that what he was proposing for Nigeria as a whole was something he had accomplished in Delta State. Okowa’s Delta, one of the top three oil-bearing states, was once a theatre of agitations and upheavals When the mind is trained and liberated, it will help check population explosion, and this will directly address the challenge of out-ofschool children, parents having children they cannot take care of that forced oil companies in the creeks to stop production with frequent declarations of force majeure. Militancy was high as the youths in the oil-bearing communities raged against oil companies for the despoliation of their environment and leaving them in poverty and their communities undeveloped. But Okowa quenched the fire of agitation and the sweltering rage of militancy. The formula, according to him, was simple. He brought development to the people in the creeks, actively engaged the youths with skills and resources, and brought entrepreneurship and infrastructure to them in a manner they never imagined. To his credit, many of the communities where militancy was rife now have roads and bridges linking them for effective movement of goods, services, and personnel. They have schools, skill acquisition centres, healthcare facilities, and other infrastructure that gives them a sense of belonging. He argued that with the right approach to development, issues of poverty, out-of-school children, food insecurity, and national disunity, among others, would be addressed. He punctured the idea always bandied about by one of the candidates that saving money was one of his achievements while in office as governor. Okowa’s counterpoint to this was that you do not emphasise saving money over development. Atiku’s brand of leadership, he affirms, is such that he will use the money to build infrastructure, including education, transport, and health infrastructure, that would engender the creation of jobs and wealth, rather than keeping the money in the bank, where it will suffer depreciation. Why save money in the bank when you don’t have potable water, steady electricity, good roads, growing youth unemployment, growing army of children out of school, efficient healthcare system and functional education sector, he wondered. To further situate why the PDP and Atiku should be trusted to deliver the country from the mess created by the ruling APC, he reminded Nigerians how the PDP inherited from the military a broken nation with a humongous debt profile, decrepit infrastructure, a massively depleted external reserve, and a pariah nation where no foreign investor was willing to invest. He recalled how the Obasanjo-Atiku Presidency turned things around: Got Nigeria out of debt overhang, rejigged the nation’s infrastructure, revamped healthcare and education, attracted foreign direct investments, and moved Nigeria’s economy to the topmost floor on the continent. He referenced a telecom revolution wrought by the Atiku Abubakar-led National Economic Council, a revolution that did not only create direct and indirect jobs, but also became a major public relations tool for Nigeria in the global arena. Okowa presented a more feasible and pragmatic approach to tackling insecurity. He listed the challenges as including a shortage of manpower, under-equipment of manpower, and the influx of illegal firearms into the country. For an effective solution, he prescribes the deployment of modern communication technology for both surveillance and intelligence gathering and sharing, the recruitment of more personnel into the various security agencies, the training and adequate resourcing of "men on the boot" (persons on the frontline), the acquisition of modern weapons, effective liaison with the international community, especially contiguous nations to Nigeria, and closer monitoring of our borders.““Over all, Okowa represented Atiku and his party very well. His superlative performance could easily be measured by his comportment in the face of needless provocation, his clear roadmaps on development, and the clarity of his logical answers to questions on the economy, security, and other issues.Without any doubt, Okowa takes the trophy in the first major interaction with the candidates. He was brutally honest and practical, and did not seek to impress or play to the gallery. A true hallmark of a good leader. * Danbatta, a social commentator, wrote from Kano C M Y K
Vanguard, TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2022 — 17 Leadership is key to unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential LAST week, this column discussed the need to rethink productivity and economic growth in Nigeria based on the presentation by foremost economist, Dr. Ayo Teriba. This week, we shall look at leadership’s role in engendering a new economic growth model to give our country a leap forward. Nigeria’s adverse economic situation is stale news; many have accepted it as a norm that the country will continuously operate below its economic potential. This dire economic reality results from decades of bad economic policies and poor implementations, a chequered political history marred by a military incursion into politics, corruption, and the nascent difficulties occasioned by insecurity, economic sabotage, climate change, global pandemic crises and the Russian/ Ukraine crisis. Nigeria is on her knees economically – with a high debt profile, poor revenue from the mono-product (crude oil) that is not even enough to service debts, inadequate foreign reserves, exchange rate crisis that has seen the value of the Naira hammered against other world currencies, high inflation, and highinterest rate. The Nigerian economic statistics are gloomy and are causing undue concerns for many stakeholders in the Nigeria project. Nigeria has navigated the murky waters of a financial quagmire for a few decades and has survived it, albeit with substantial economic bruises. The pervading sentiment is that no matter what happens, Nigeria will survive, things will continue as usual, and nothing will change for the better. William Pollard, a leading light in leadership, warned against this state of path dependency when he opined that “the arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” The economic policies and actions that kept us in our current financial quagmire must change for meaningful progress. Nigeria does not need the economics of survival anymore; we need the economics of growth, prosperity, and decent quality of life for Nigerians. One fundamental problem that is destabilising our economy is the lack of liquidity. Our negative balance of payment causes this illiquidity because our receipts from exports are far less than the expenditure on goods imported from abroad. This leads to a dwindling of our foreign reserves and a concomitant scarcity of foreign currency to fulfil the needs for the importation of foreign goods and services. This scarcity creates a parallel market that often aids the destruction of the naira value. The unofficial devaluation of the naira makes the cost of foreign goods expensive, even more so given the inflation ravaging some of these countries’ posts COVID-19. Local and imported inflation is the bane of our economy. The Nigerian government needs to make more money from oil revenue and taxes and rely less on borrowed funds to cover recurrent and capital expenditures. They need to cover the budget deficits with massive loans from local and international institutions with high-interest rates, and we are still determining how our children will pay for these in the future. Even in an era of increase in the price of oil globally, Nigeria did not benefit maximally from this because of the low volume of oil production and oil theft that stopped Nigeria from meeting its OPEC quota monthly. The non-oil sector contributes little to Nigeria’s income statement because the bulk of these trades is for primary products with little or no extra value added to them in the value chain, and such goods command less revenue in the international market, adversely affecting our income statement. Unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential underscores the need to, among other things, improve its liquidity to stabilise the system and grow the economy. The government must stabilise the exchange, interest, and inflation rates to make meaningful improvements in our economy. The exchange rate regime is a function of our foreign reserve adequacy. The global economy offers two pathways to increase our foreign reserves. It is either you earn more from exports, or you attract more foreign direct investment (FDI). Nigeria has historically preferred the path of exporting more. However, from 2010 to date, global exports have stagnated and even declined because of weak commodity prices. This has affected Nigeria drastically. Most countries are relying on a heavy inflow of FDI, which is the economic model chosen by Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, and others. These countries get more FDI to compensate for shortfalls in exports. Foreign direct investors will only come to Nigeria with offers to invest equity in public assets and a suitable investment climate. We offered foreign investors an opportunity in the Nigeria LNG project, which yielded substantial investment outcomes. We also did that with the liberalisation of the GSM sector, and we could see the investment inflow. The interest rate is another crucial factor in productivity and driving growth. Financial institutions provide interest rates on loans to businesses they need to run or expand their businesses. The higher the interest rates, the less likely companies will borrow for expansion, and the lower the interest rates, the more likely the companies will borrow for operational and growth reasons. Individuals also borrow from financial institutions for personal loans, credit cards, or product loans. The lower the interest rate, the more likely individuals will borrow to purchase goods and Nigeria does not need the economics of survival anymore; we need the economics of growth, prosperity, and decent quality of life for Nigerians services that help businesses expand, mainly if local companies produce the goods and services. Another impact of interest rates is that they often are benchmarked with savings rates. The higher the interest rate on loans, the higher the interest rates on savings. When interest rates on savings are high, people tend to save, but when it is low, people tend to invest, especially in the equity market. The exchange and interest rates are monetary instruments influencing the inflation rate. Nigeria needs to stabilise its revenue by expanding its revenue sources, financialising its assets – especially its real estate, infrastructural, and portfolio assets – and maximising value chains across the various productive sectors. It needs to upskill its workforce to have the required skills in the knowledge economy, where knowledge and innovation are the keys to greater productivity. Therefore, human capital development is crucial in unleashing Nigeria’s growth potential. Unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential requires new economic thinking by leadership in the public and private sectors. Only good leadership that understands how to open the great possibilities of Nigeria in line with global realities and using tools and resources that work will lift Nigeria from its economic quagmire. Therefore, the 2023 Elections are providing an opportunity for a change in leadership, and Nigerians must look for leaders who understand the destination Nigeria must go to for growth and prosperity and who have what it takes to take Nigerians there. The intention of making Nigeria great is not enough, capacity, and intellectual ability to deliver are critical. The time for transformational leaders in Nigeria is now. Nigeria needs leaders that create a vision and use highly skilled individuals rather than politicians to run the economy of Nigeria. Gather intelligent people and develop and implement ways to improve revenue, optimise assets, and efficiently manage our liabilities. Continues online: www.vanguardngr.com Nigeria and the anger of its Diaspora BY SOLA EBISENI UNDOUBTEDLY, Nigerians are angry, deep-seated rage with a nation that guarantees them nothing; its diaspora is most implacable, and do I hear you justifiably so? They are driven out so that they may not be torpedoed by a rudderless ship that defiles all systemic analyses. In ages past, it was the intruding Caucasians, aided by our unconscionable primitive bourgeoisie, that hunted and haunted us for slavery and slave labour. Not only do our citizens voluntarily seek to be enslaved along transportation routes, but in many cases, worsen the modern trans-Atlantic movement. In those three centuries spanning the mid-15th century up to deep into the 19th, the merchants of Europe ensured the security of their human wares and, for maximum profits from hard labour were only interested in the youthful and most productive of our population, which Franz Fanon attributed principally to how Europe underdeveloped Africa. Now, any rickety boat will suffice, even if it falls far short of the capacity to withstand the ferocity of the Atlantic waves as we desperately seek to japa. Elders are not forgotten; it is a shame that men and women, grandparents, flee to Europe and the Americas. We have also voluntarily widened the scope of this human traffic. We seek refuge in Asia, while it is now a source of pride to announce that we have relocated to any other country, including those we used to feed or who took the lead in weaning from slavery and foreign rule. Our heroes' great-grandfathers stormed Europe in search of education in the midnineteenth century, never stayed, but returned with academic laurels to fight colonialism and establish a country that, until the 1960s, was competitive with many of today's giant nations. In contrast, today our children are trained even within the country but export themselves voluntarily unmindful of subjecting themselves to slave labour, notwithstanding the quality of their training. To say we are in a mess is an understatement, and our optimum population are taking flights in drones and droves, including the professionals in strategic development fields. However, this sorry state is not the cause of action in this discourse, though its foundation. The concern is not unconnected with the sheath of rage among the citizenry. I was on the hot seat of the Yoruba diaspora, mainly in the United States, on one of their unifying zoom programmes, ‘Yoruba Gbode'. I've found it amusing that engagement with the Nigerian diaspora has no set schedule. It is either that they are overwhelmed by nostalgia to keep hearing home voices and behold their faces or that such peanuts for airtime which the home people are often conscious of actually means little to the self exiled. Whatever the reason, you are forewarned to ensure you have excess time on your hands before dabbling in conversation with SOLA EBISENI your people in the land of the dollar. Moving forward, the conversation I was told would last for an hour starting at 9.00 p.m. Nigerian time, did not rest till about 11.35, some minutes before midnight. Nonetheless, the time spent was well spent because it provided some insights into the minds and states of our people on the way forward if Nigeria is to survive as a corporate state and if the Yoruba are to remain there, a situation they despise. It must be given to the Yoruba nation campaigners; they have done such unequaled sensitization of the people that they virtually held Afenifere responsible for the restructuring campaigns, which they would rather describe as unprofitable distractions. My take-home message from the programme which was animatedly participated in by many of them. They are so completely disenchanted about Nigeria and all it stands for, that a simple plebiscite will see them dismember this country, which they insisted is an unworkable contraption. Despite their complaints that Afenifere was not doing enough to realize the Yoruba nation, I saw implicit trust in Afenifere and its invincibility in directing the course of Nigerian events in them. They remembered, with nostalgia, the prowess and exploits of Afenifere during the NADECO war. They wondered why Afenifere could not achieve much more in dealing with the current situation under a civil administration compared with our exploits during the military era. Furthermore, they could not see the logic in my theory that it was easier to fight an unelected and legitimate government compared with the elected, which apparently parades the mandate of the people no matter the quality of the suffrage. They were reminded of the undisguised support of the international community in the war against the military and illegal regime, and even mentioned some envoys at the disposal of the liberation struggle. The main question I was confronted with regarding the 2023 elections, which also stemmed from their preference for the Yoruba nation, was what they described as apparent contradictions in Afenifere's clamouring for restructuring and condemnation of the 1999 constitution while endorsing candidates for election, the processes of which are inextricably derived from it. They rather would prefer that we lead the Yoruba to boycott the election as a sign I saw implicit trust in Afenifere and its invincibility in directing the course of Nigerian events in them of absolute loss of confidence in the federation. They were quickly reminded of the impossibility of achieving much success from such a political venture, as we have no control over the ambitions of the emilokans who are part of the status quo and would resist the efforts. Besides, they were made to understand that the objective conditions for the split of the federation are not present. Instead, we canvassed the idea that there was nothing intricately wrong with Nigeria, which is an advantage in terms of size, population, and resources if the national question is well engineered and amicably resolved. On the endorsement of the presidential candidate, they were reminded of the philosophy of the Afenifere as a sociopolitical organisation and its unending intervention at critical junctions of Nigeria’s political journey. They were briefed on the imperative of the South East Presidency following Obasanjo for the South West, Yaradua for the North, Jonathan for the South- South and current President Buhari for the North West, even with a South West Vice President. They understood the Yoruba Omoluwabi philosophy, which dominant inherent attributes are equity and morality. Except for one participant who was clearly of the Oshodi School of Politics, the rest expressed full understanding of the principles and philosophy of the Afenifere decision for a Peter Obi presidency without betraying their individual choices. This was more so as they were going through the 14 months' dialogue that led to the resolution. Of course, they were impressed by how a contrary distraction was maturely handled and nipped in the bud by the indestructible Awolowo Political Academy.“Nigeria! We hail thee. •Ebiseni is the Secretary General, Afenifere.
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