TISCO Financial Group (TISC.BK/TISCO TB)*

Balance Sheet
As of 31 Dec (Bt mn) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Total Assets 171,408 220,718 253,882 295,110 350,608
Cash 903 903 814 559 1,920
Interbank and Money Mkt Securities 12,545 30,722 16,698 10,645 8,175
Securities (resale) 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 6,481 3,706 4,354 4,354 4,354
Loans & Accrued Int. - Net 145,704 180,852 226,279 273,744 330,351
Properties Foreclosed 21 258 299 299 299
Properties, Premises and Equipment 1,395 1,451 1,411 1,481 1,481
Others 4,357 2,825 4,028 4,028 4,028
Total Liabilities 156,550 204,406 235,787 274,358 327,037
Deposits 48,533 37,979 89,774 105,013 125,827
Interbank and Money Mkt Securities 10,843 14,479 14,083 16,473 19,738
Account Payable 532 448 756 756 756
REPO Securities 0 0 0 0 0
Short-term Borrowings 54,044 54,044 54,044 54,044 54,044
Debt issued and borrowings 90,776 145,397 123,364 144,305 172,906
Others 5,866 6,104 7,809 7,809 7,809
Shareholders' Equity 14,857 16,312 18,095 20,752 23,571
CommonStock 7,279 7,279 7,279 7,279 7,279
Capital Surplus 0 0 0 0 0
Retained Earnings 7,578 9,032 10,816 13,473 16,292
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0
Supplementary
Non Performing Loans 2,654 2,612 3,532 4,212 5,023
Source: Company data; KGI Securities (Thailand) estimates
Profit & Loss
DAILY Navigator Thailand Top Stock Ideas b
Year to 31 Dec (Bt mn) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Interest Income 9,433 12,369 14,944 17,941 21,464
Interest Expense 2,572 5,461 7,977 9,303 11,018
Net Interest Income (NII) 6,861 6,907 6,966 8,639 10,446
Provision and Restructuring Loss 1,947 1,283 1,743 2,028 2,472
NII after Provision 4,914 5,624 5,224 6,611 7,975
Non-interest Income, net (non-NII) 3,964 4,163 5,252 5,696 6,090
Fee income, net 2,708 2,852 3,515 3,937 4,330
Investment Gains 201 34 52 56 56
Investment Income 0 0 0 0 0
Others 1,055 1,277 1,685 1,704 1,704
Non-interest Expenses 4,518 4,932 5,789 6,737 7,772
Profit before Tax 4,360 4,855 4,687 5,570 6,292
Income Tax 1,256 1,562 1,063 1,114 1,258
Minority Interest 14 26 26 26 26
Net Profit 3,090 3,267 3,598 4,430 5,008
EPS (Bt) 4.3 4.5 4.9 6.1 6.9
Pre-provision Profit before Tax 6,307 6,138 6,430 7,597 8,764
Pre-provision Profit after Tax 5,051 4,576 5,366 6,483 7,506
Source: Company data; KGI Securities (Thailand) estimates
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities.
Du Pont Analysis
Year to 31 Dec (%) 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Tax burden: net profit/pre-tax profit 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Extraordinaries: pre-tax profit/oper. profit (OP) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Credit costs: OP/pre-provision OP (PPOP) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Costs: PPOP/pre-prov. oper. rev. (PPOR) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Non-int. income: PPOR/pre-provision NII 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6
Int. margin: pre-provision NII/asset 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leverage: asset/equity 11.5 13.5 14.0 14.2 14.9
Multiply the above to derive:
ROE 20.8 20.0 19.9 21.3 21.2
Source: Company data; KGI Securities (Thailand) estimates
Key Assumptions & Ratios
Year to 31 Dec
Growth (YoY %)
2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Loans & Accrued Interests 27.6 24.1 25.1 21.0 20.7
Deposits (14.6) (21.7) 136.4 17.0 19.8
Total Assets 21.5 28.8 15.0 16.2 18.8
Total Equity
Growth (YoY %)
18.7 9.8 10.9 14.7 13.6
Net Interest Income 14.7 0.7 0.9 24.0 20.9
Provision 25.8 (34.1) 35.8 16.4 21.9
Non-interest Income 38.0 5.0 26.2 8.5 6.9
Total Revenue (NII + Non-NII) 22.3 2.3 10.4 17.3 15.4
NP 55.4 5.7 10.1 23.1 13.0
EPS 55.5 5.7 9.9 23.1 13.0
PPP before Tax 43.6 (2.7) 4.8 18.2 15.4
PPP after Tax
Profitability (%)
7.1 (9.4) 17.3 20.8 15.8
Yield on Int.-earning Assets 5.6 6.4 6.3 6.6 6.7
Cost of Funds 1.7 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.8
Net Interest Margin 4.06 3.56 2.95 3.16 3.24
Fee Income/Total Revenue 25.5 25.8 28.9 27.6 26.3
Fee Income/Total Assets 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2
Cost/Op Income Ratio 41.7 44.6 47.4 47.0 47.0
ROAA 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6
ROAE
Capital Adequacy (%)
20.9 21.1 21.0 22.9 22.7
Tier 1 Ratio 11.3 9.9 10.1 11.8 13.8
Tier 2 Ratio 6.3 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1
Capital Adequacy Ratio 17.5 15.3 15.3 17.0 18.9
Equity/Assets Ratio
Asset Quality (%)
8.7 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.7
NPLs Ratio 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
NPLs Coverage Ratio 156.8 169.3 146.9 149.1 150.9
Provision/Loans Ratio
Liquidity (%)
2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2
Loans/Deposits Ratio 308.8 487.8 257.8 266.7 268.6
Loans/Deposits and Borrowings Ratio
Per Share Data (Bt)
107.6 101.0 108.6 112.3 113.1
Pre-provision EPS (weighted avg.) 13.9 6.3 7.4 8.9 10.3
Pre-provision EPS (fully diluted) 7.0 6.3 7.4 8.9 10.3
EPS (weighted avg.) 8.5 4.5 4.9 6.1 6.9
EPS (fully diluted) 4.3 4.5 4.9 6.1 6.9
DPS 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.0 3.4
BVPS 20.3 22.3 24.7 28.3 32.2
Source: Company data; KGI Securities (Thailand) estimates
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