The Cyber Defense eMagazine January Edition for 2024

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With The World Distracted, China Stirs Trouble in The Asia Pacific By Stan Vitek, Resident Geopolitical Analyst, Cyfirma Introduction – Thrilla in Manilla President Biden warned that “conflict and chaos could spread to the Indo-Pacific” from late October, and, amidst the wars in Ukraine and Israel, little attention has been paid to China’s ongoing coercion, in what Beijing calls the South China Sea, and Manila, the West Philippine Sea (or simply, the Philippine Sea). China’s latest actions involve a Coast Guard vessel nudging a tiny Philippines government-contracted resupply boat, and a Chinese armed militia vessel similarly knocking a smaller Philippines Coast Guard vessel. This is the first time the Philippines has reported Chinese ships deliberately hitting Philippine government vessels, however, it’s not unexpected. The Philippines has a derelict vessel called Sierra Madre beached on Second Thomas Shoal on which live a number of military personnel who would fall under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, if Cyber Defense eMagazine – January 2024 Edition 178 Copyright © 2024, Cyber Defense Magazine. All rights reserved worldwide.
they came under armed attack. However, that vessel is disintegrating, and the Philippine government aims to reinforce the structure using construction materials brought to the site by ship. China appears determined to prevent these efforts and Beijing is using a combination of fishing vessels, maritime militia, coast guard, and People’s Liberation Army Navy ships to intercept the Philippines’ resupply manoevres, steadily escalating tensions. More than 100 militia ships and numerous Chinese Coast Guard ships have been witnessed in the area, allegedly almost colliding with Philippine Coast Guard ships at times. This recent incident described above is just the latest in a string of intimidating actions by Beijing, who arguably sees this as an effort to uphold the status quo. Both Beijing and Manila appear determined to press ahead at Second Thomas Shoal, which means that the U.S. – due to the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines – are increasingly more likely to get embroiled in the conflict. Thus far, Washington has been supportive of Manila, but has largely stayed in the background, offering mostly political assistance. The U.S. State Department asserted its stance after the latest incident, stating that the mutual defense treaty extends to “armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft.” Therefore, it stands to reason that a if a more serious clash occurs, the South China Sea could become the next major global flashpoint. The Biden – Xi Meeting Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping met in Silicon Valley in mid-November in an attempt to reduce tensions in the world’s most precarious bilateral relationship, but many questions remain unanswered. The formalized meeting adjacent to the APEC summit – rather than a bilateral summit or state visit – which in itself is arguably indicative of how low relations between the two countries have sunk. After a year of almost no recorded communication, the meeting itself was presented as an important deliverable, with both leaders announcing a set of measures, including the partial resumption of military communication, following the Chinese withdrawal from military talking channels last year as ‘punishment‘ for US Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. The resumption of military communications will include operational contact between senior commanders and ship captains, and a meeting between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart. Despite signs of renewed engagement, both Beijing and Washington (and Manila, for that matter) appear committed to their current confrontational course, which means the prospects for stabilization remain distant at best, and foolhardy at worst. It was during the conference in California that Chinese ships were provoking Philippine vessels in the exclusive economic zone, and Chinese hackers were infiltrating the Filipino government. It could be asserted that Beijing’s skepticism around dialogue is because this situation is seen as an avenue for the United States to try to contain China’s actions in regions that China feels are sovereign (i.e. the fault lines inside China’s so-called ‚ten dash line‘), claims on territory in internationally-recognized waters belonging to other Asia–Pacific states like Vietnam, Indonesia or the Philippines. China argues it‘s Coast Guard and the militia are simply enforcing China’s domestic laws, which the country has unilaterally decided to apply to the 90% of the sea it claims. In terms of area, China’s contested take- Cyber Defense eMagazine – January 2024 Edition 179 Copyright © 2024, Cyber Defense Magazine. All rights reserved worldwide.
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