Module 4 - Introduction to Performance Audit_4C
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Payback<br />
The concept of payback is straightforward. The method answers the question: how long will<br />
it take for the net cash inflows (i.e., any additional revenues and cost savings) <strong>to</strong> be equal <strong>to</strong><br />
the investment needed at the beginning? The payback period can be calculated on the basis<br />
of projected or actual results. Once calculated it can be compared with other investment<br />
options <strong>to</strong> help select the projects <strong>to</strong> be funded. For projects already completed, the result<br />
can be compared with planned payback or benchmarks.<br />
For example, the following detail relates <strong>to</strong> a project.<br />
Year<br />
Additional cash<br />
outflows<br />
(000,000 LEK)<br />
Net cash inflows (from additional<br />
revenue and/or saved costs)<br />
(000,000 LEK)<br />
0 158 (setup costs)<br />
1 18<br />
2 41<br />
3 65<br />
4 85<br />
5 85<br />
Year 0 is the theoretical point at which investment is made and the project begins. An<br />
assumption is usually made that cashflows accrue evenly through the year.<br />
The first step is <strong>to</strong> add a cumulative column for net cash inflows.<br />
Year<br />
Additional cash<br />
outflows<br />
(000,000 LEK)<br />
Net cash inflows (from additional<br />
revenue and/or saved costs)<br />
(000,000 LEK)<br />
Cumulative net<br />
cash inflows<br />
(000,000 LEK)<br />
0 158 (setup costs)<br />
1 18 18<br />
2 41 59<br />
3 65 124<br />
4 85 209<br />
5 85 294<br />
You can see in this case that at some point during year 4 the cumulative <strong>to</strong>tal passes the<br />
initial cost of set up 158. The payback period is somewhere between 3 and 4 years. Year 4<br />
begins with a cumulative <strong>to</strong>tal of 124. A further 34,000,000 LEK is needed <strong>to</strong> reach<br />
158,000,000 LEK. If we assume an even rate of cashflows, it will take 34/85 = 0.4 of a year<br />
or 4.8 months.<br />
Therefore, Payback period is 3.4 years or 3 years and 4.8 months.<br />
The method is simple, easy <strong>to</strong> understand and easy <strong>to</strong> calculate. However, it ignores the fact<br />
that future cashflows are harder <strong>to</strong> estimate accurately. It also ignores the time value of<br />
money (i.e., that money that will be received in the future is worth less than money that will<br />
be received sooner.)<br />
Discounted Cashflow (DCF) and Net Present Value (NPV)<br />
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