Altus Feasibility Study (pdf) - Maison Senior Living
Altus Feasibility Study (pdf) - Maison Senior Living
Altus Feasibility Study (pdf) - Maison Senior Living
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CALGARY, ALBERTA<br />
A PROPOSED SENIORS HOUSING PROPERTY<br />
MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY<br />
File No. NYKV959184<br />
Effective October 15, 2010<br />
Prepared for Milliken Developments<br />
Prepared by <strong>Altus</strong> Group
Independent Real Estate Intelligence<br />
File No. NYKV959184<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
234 19 th Street West<br />
North Vancouver, BC<br />
V7M 1X5<br />
Attention: Ms. Kate Milliken Binns<br />
RE: MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY ON A PROPOSED ASSISTED LIVING [AL] & MEMORY CARE [ALZ] RETIREMENT<br />
RESIDENCE AT 4904 – 4920 ELBOW DRIVE SW, CALGARY, ALBERTA<br />
Dear Ms. Milliken Binns:<br />
We have completed an investigation and analysis pursuant to your request for a market feasibility involving the<br />
above noted proposed seniors’ housing property and herein submit our findings. The purpose of this study is to<br />
validate demand and to verify the developer’s rental rate and staffing assumptions for a freestanding luxury,<br />
boutique style retirement residence providing assisted living [“AL”] and memory care [“ALZ”] in southwest<br />
Calgary. The intended use is for internal planning and decision making and no other use. This study is subject to<br />
the terms of reference, extraordinary assumptions and extraordinary limiting conditions described herein.<br />
The following report provides details of the subject property and summarizes the information gathered in our<br />
investigations, techniques employed and reasoning leading to the conclusion. The analysis, opinions, and<br />
conclusions were developed based on, and in conformity with, our interpretation of the guidelines and<br />
recommendations set forth in the Canadian Uniform Standards of Appraisal Practice [“The Standards”]. The<br />
report is subject to the terms of reference and assumptions and limiting conditions herein. The accompanying<br />
report of 62 pages contains the results of our investigations.<br />
The report is for the sole use of our client, Milliken Developments. However, the client may provide only<br />
complete, final copies of the market feasibility report in its entirety [but not component parts] to third parties who<br />
shall review such reports in connection with loan underwriting or securitization efforts. <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd. is not<br />
required to explain or testify as to the results other than to respond to the client for routine and customary<br />
questions. Please note that our consent to allow a report prepared by <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd. or portions of such report,<br />
to become part of or be referenced in any public offering will be at our sole discretion and, if given, will be on<br />
condition that we will be provided with an indemnification and/or non‐reliance letter, in a form and content<br />
satisfactory to us, by a party satisfactory to us. We do consent to your submission of the reports to rating<br />
agencies, loan participants or your auditors in its entirety (but not component parts) without the need to provide<br />
us with an indemnification agreement and/or non‐reliance letter.<br />
Research, Valuation & Advisory Cost Consulting Realty Tax Consulting | Geomatics | Environmental & Forestry Services<br />
200 University Avenue, 7 th Floor, Toronto, ON M5H 3C6 Canada T 416.221.1200 F 416.221.1416<br />
www.altusgroup.com
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
We hereby certify that we have no present or contemplated interest in the herein described property of any kind<br />
whatsoever. If you require any further information on this matter, please do not hesitate to contact the<br />
undersigned.<br />
Respectfully submitted,<br />
<strong>Altus</strong> Group Limited
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
4<br />
TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................1<br />
BACKGROUND.......................................................................................................................................... 1<br />
PRIMARY MARKET AREA [PMA] .................................................................................................................... 1<br />
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ............................................................................................................................. 2<br />
SUPPLY & DEMAND .................................................................................................................................. 2<br />
DEMAND COVERAGE RATIO [DCR]................................................................................................................. 2<br />
OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 2<br />
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 3<br />
SCOPE OF INVESTIGATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 3<br />
ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITING CONDITIONS......................................................................................................... 4<br />
EXTRAORDINARY ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................................. 4<br />
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................5<br />
SENIORS MARKET EVOLUTION & HISTORIC OVERVIEW......................................................................................11<br />
REGIONAL & CITY DESCRIPTION ..................................................................................................................21<br />
MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE........................................................................................................ 28<br />
MARKET SUPPLY ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................51<br />
DEMAND ANALYSIS................................................................................................................................. 56<br />
DEMAND COVERAGE RATIO....................................................................................................................... 59<br />
CERTIFICATION....................................................................................................................................... 61<br />
QUALIFICATIONS .................................................................................................................................... 62
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Background<br />
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />
We researched the retirement home market in Calgary to determine if the freestanding mixed AL/ALZ concept is<br />
feasible and whether the operator’s proposed average rents and staffing ratios are reasonable and achievable.<br />
In order to test demand, we prepared a market feasibility based on our model which takes into consideration<br />
family types, income and need.<br />
Outside of the government funded care model, ALZ is uncommon in the private pay market and does not exist in<br />
the high end format in Calgary as proposed by Milliken. Moreover, the only comparable model in the country is<br />
operated by Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong>, a US based developer of mansion style residences in Ontario, BC and Quebec.<br />
Primary Market Area [PMA]<br />
The PMA encompasses the south‐westerly portion of the City of Calgary, south of the 17 th Avenue, east of<br />
Crowchild Trail/37 th Street SW, north of Fish Creek/Canyon Meadows Drive SE, and west of Queen Elizabeth<br />
Highway/Blackfoot Trail/McLeod Trail.<br />
The subject property is located in the northerly portion of the PMA on the boundary between two<br />
neighbourhoods; Elboya to the east and Britannia to the west. It is an established inner city community located<br />
approximately 3 kilometres from downtown Calgary.<br />
1
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Demographic Profile<br />
The PMA is estimated to have a 2010 population of 171,594. It has a middle‐aged population age structure with<br />
predominant affluence classification of middle and upscale, and above average incomes when compared with the<br />
Calgary CMA.<br />
An estimated 10,968 people are aged 75+ years or older in the PMA, representing 6.4% of the total population.<br />
The number of seniors is expected to grow to 11,370 over the next 5 years, a modest increase of 3.7%. The average<br />
annual income for the 75+ cohort is $52,376, 33% higher than the Calgary CMA average.<br />
Supply & Demand<br />
The PMA contains a total of 963 retirement units in six (6) residences and currently captures approximately 8.8%<br />
of the seniors’ 75+ population. Based on our analysis of existing supply, we estimate that no units in the PMA<br />
would be competitive to the proposed high end development.<br />
To estimate market demand, our model considers family types, frailty in the seniors’ population and income<br />
levels. Based on our modelling, potential demand in the PMA is for 262 units.<br />
Demand Coverage Ratio [DCR]<br />
The demand coverage ratio measures the relationship between market demand and competitive supply in the<br />
PMA. We contend that a market is in equilibrium when the DCR is approximately 2.0.<br />
As noted above, no units are deemed “competitive supply” in the PMA. Our model includes the subject property<br />
units [73] and presumes that 75% of the total demand originates from the PMA, or 55 units [73x 75%]. Therefore,<br />
the DCR is calculated at 4.8 [qualified demand ÷ net supply]. Based on population forecast by Environics<br />
Analytics, the DCR will rise to 5.2 by 2015 barring a possible change to the supply.<br />
Operating Assumptions<br />
Based on our analysis of AL and ALZ rental rates at similar freestanding, upscale residences across the country, it<br />
is our opinion that the estimated average rents, staffing ratio and overall expense ratio proposed are consistent<br />
with benchmarks in the seniors’ housing market and reasonable to achieve in the Calgary market.<br />
2
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Purpose of the <strong>Study</strong><br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
The purpose of this market feasibility study is to determine if demand exists for a high‐end assisted living and<br />
memory care residence in Calgary, Alberta.<br />
Intended Use of the <strong>Study</strong><br />
The only intended use of this study is to assist with construction financing for a proposed seniors’ housing<br />
residence located at the intersection of Elbow Drive and 49th Avenue SW, in Calgary, Alberta.<br />
Effective Date of the <strong>Study</strong><br />
The effective date of the study is October 15, 2010.<br />
Data<br />
The data utilized in our analysis is derived from the 2006 Canadian Census, 2005 Tax Filer data, Environics<br />
Analytics, the Assisted <strong>Living</strong> Federation of America, the National Investment Conference for the <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong><br />
and Long Term Care Industries, as well as various proprietary databases.<br />
We have relied on Environics Analytics for our population estimates and forecasts.<br />
Scope of Investigations<br />
The scope of this market feasibility study encompasses the necessary research and analysis to prepare a report in<br />
accordance with “The Standards” which involved the following steps.<br />
� Published data from municipal authorities was reviewed as it relates to the real estate market in which<br />
the subject is situated. Investigations were carried out in order to evaluate market trends, influences and<br />
other significant factors relevant to the subject property.<br />
� A demographic profile of the subject property’s PMA was compiled from data sources including Statistics<br />
Canada and Environics Analytics.<br />
� The competitive supply documented in this report was researched and interviews were carried out with<br />
the operators involved in order to obtain current rental rates, occupancy levels and an indication of<br />
general market conditions.<br />
� A demand model for the proposed property was prepared.<br />
Since this study was not intended to be used for court purposes or for arbitration, some of the information set out<br />
may not have been fully documented or confirmed by reference to primary sources.<br />
3
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
The user of this report should exercise reasonable and proper due diligence and consult legal advice and such<br />
other experts necessary to make informed decisions regarding the property.<br />
Assumptions & Limiting Conditions<br />
This report is prepared at the request of our client, Milliken Developments, as a market feasibility study. It is not<br />
reasonable for any company other than Milliken Developments to rely upon this report without first obtaining<br />
written authorization from the <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd. There may be assumptions or limiting conditions in addition to<br />
those set out below relevant to the client or their intended use. This report is prepared on the assumption that no<br />
other person(s) will rely on it for any other purpose and that all liability to all such persons is denied.<br />
While expert in consulting matters, the author is not qualified and does not purport to give legal advice.<br />
The author is not a qualified surveyor and no legal survey concerning the subject has been provided. Sketches,<br />
photographs, etc. are presented in this report for the limited purpose of illustration, are not to be relied upon.<br />
Neither possession of this report nor a copy carries with it the right of publication. All copyright is reserved to the<br />
author and is considered confidential by the author and his client. It will not be disclosed, quoted from or referred<br />
to, in whole or in part, or published in any manner, without the express written consent of <strong>Altus</strong> Group. It is<br />
subject to confidential review by the Appraisal Institute of Canada.<br />
The information furnished by our sources is believed to be reliable. As well as using documented and generally<br />
reliable evidence of market transactions, it was also necessary to rely on hearsay evidence.<br />
Because market conditions, including economic, social and political factors, change rapidly and, on occasion,<br />
without warning, the conclusion[s] reached as of the date of this appraisal cannot be relied upon to estimate<br />
market value of any other date except with further advice of the author.<br />
The compensation for services rendered in the report does not include a fee for court preparation or appearances.<br />
However, neither this nor any other of these limiting conditions is an attempt to limit the use that might be made<br />
of this report should it properly become evidence in a judicial body which will decide the use of the report which<br />
best serves the administration of justice.<br />
Extraordinary Assumptions<br />
The reader is advised that this report does not address unforeseeable events that could alter market conditions<br />
reflected in the analysis prior to completed construction.<br />
4
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Canada, Economic Overview<br />
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW<br />
Source: <strong>Altus</strong> Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada, CMHC, and Conference Board of Canada (data as at August, 2010)<br />
The pace of the Canadian recovery slowed significantly in the second quarter. According to Statistics Canada,<br />
Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to an annualized 2.0% in the second quarter of 2010. The<br />
performance in the second quarter was led by oil and gas extraction and mining, while housing investment, which<br />
had previously driven growth, showed signs of softening. Although the pace of the recovery has become more<br />
tepid, these new levels appear to be more sustainable. Overall, the consensus view continues to be for a fairly<br />
gradual economic recovery. One factor prompting the cautious optimism is foreign trade, which continues to<br />
struggle, posting a number of small deficits and surpluses, a far cry from the large surpluses prior to the recession.<br />
Part of this can be attributed to the continued struggles of forestry exports, which is attributable to the continued<br />
weakness in the U.S. housing market. Also, a possible slowdown in China could dampen demand for some of<br />
Canada’s raw materials.<br />
Over 2010 as a whole, Canada’s GDP is expected to grow at an annualized pace of some 3.2% before slowing to an<br />
annualized pace of 2.7% in 2011. Public sector spending will continue to play an important role in economic<br />
growth while private spending also improves. Concerns over a euro‐zone debt crisis should continue to add<br />
pressure to the Canadian recovery. However, the continual improvement in private sector spending should help<br />
alleviate any concerns about a double‐dip recession in Canada.<br />
5
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Strong job growth since the second half of 2009 has resulted in Canada recouping nearly all of the jobs lost in the<br />
recession. In the second quarter of 2010, employment was up about 1.0% from the previous quarter on a<br />
seasonally adjusted basis. In addition, employment in the second quarter was nearly 293,000 jobs higher than the<br />
same period in the previous year. The outlook is for employment to grow at an average annual pace of 1.6%<br />
through the forecast period.<br />
Housing starts remained a bright spot in the Canadian economy in the second quarter, rising to 202,400 units,<br />
seasonally adjusted at annual rates. This marked the fourth straight quarter‐over‐quarter improvement. Overall,<br />
housing starts were 4.9% higher than the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, these levels<br />
are expected to moderate due to exhausted levels of pent‐up demand and the effects of pulled‐forward sales.<br />
Existing home sales are also showing signs of softening. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported that the<br />
number of homes sold in the second quarter declined by 13% on a seasonally adjusted basis, and average existing<br />
home prices also moderated. Overall, despite improved employment conditions and the expectation that the<br />
recovery has become more entrenched, the housing market is expected to recede from the frothy levels<br />
experienced in the first half of 2010.<br />
Activity in non‐residential construction spending (buildings and infrastructure) showed some encouraging signs of<br />
improvement in the second quarter, led by investment in commercial and industrial buildings. Overall, spending<br />
on non‐residential structures was 1.2% higher than the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. However,<br />
levels still remained 3.8% below the same period in the previous year. Spending should continue to improve as<br />
businesses resume spending and efforts to complete projects associated with government stimulus spending<br />
continue. Also, with oil prices beginning to stabilize and uncertainty surrounding deep sea drilling, private sector<br />
investment intentions for oil and gas investment in the Western provinces should improve.<br />
All told, the economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, but there remain some headwinds to the recovery.<br />
The significant amounts of public‐sector debt is now a concern for the euro area, and it will limit the potential<br />
contribution of public sector stimulus going forward and has translated into higher taxes and interest rates.<br />
Another major concern is lethargic job growth in the U.S. Sluggish employment growth has resulted in still‐<br />
depressed consumer confidence and a housing market still struggling to gain a foothold.<br />
6
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Alberta, Economic Overview<br />
Source: <strong>Altus</strong> Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada, CMHC, and Conference Board of Canada (data as at August, 2010)<br />
The Alberta economy has bounced back after a difficult 2009, with economic growth is expected to resonate<br />
throughout the forecast period. The improved performance is partially due to the insatiable thirst for oil and gas<br />
and the Province unveiling new royalty rates, which make it a more attractive destination for investment.<br />
Resource prices have lured many firms back to the oil sands, as a number of companies have announced<br />
intentions to bring once idle projects back online or increase production. The benefits of increased investment in<br />
the oil sands should flow through the economy and benefit the manufacturing, trade and service industries.<br />
Exports also continue to improve but the recovery remains gradual. In the second quarter, exports were 28%<br />
higher than the same period in the previous year. The improvement was led by exports from petroleum refineries.<br />
As the global economy improves and demand for resources reasserts itself, Alberta will likely re‐establish itself as<br />
the Canadian growth leader.<br />
Employment continues to be a soft spot in the province, but it is expected to pick up steam. Although<br />
employment levels have started to improve recently, they remain well below the peak experienced before the<br />
recession. In the second quarter, employment was only 0.2% higher than the same period in the previous year and<br />
well off the pace experienced by other Canadian provinces. Overall, in 2010 annualized employment is expected<br />
to be 0.4% higher than the previous year as the province is not expected to recover the jobs lost in the recession<br />
until 2011.<br />
7
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Housing starts in Alberta continued to improve in the second quarter. Starts were about 12% higher than the<br />
previous quarter, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and almost double the same period in 2009. Despite the<br />
improvement in housing starts, levels remain well below those experienced prior to the recession. New housing<br />
construction will continue to face headwinds as a number of completed and unabsorbed row and apartment units<br />
continue to increase and limit the number of apartment starts going forward. The oversupply of condominium<br />
apartment units is compounded by slower migration to the province, as migration in the first quarter of 2010 was<br />
about 60% lower than the same period in the previous year. These factors will likely restrain housing starts in the<br />
short term before showing more stable signs of improvement as they become more aligned with market<br />
fundamentals.<br />
Spending on non‐residential building construction has yet to improve. Non‐residential investment spending was<br />
2.2% lower than the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis and 12% lower than the same period in 2009.<br />
As technological advancements in the extraction of shale gas result in the emergence of this industry in B.C. and<br />
Saskatchewan this could negatively impact the important natural gas industry in the province and limit the<br />
number of projects going forward. However there are a number of factors that have renewed interest in the oil<br />
and gas industry in the province. These include stable oil prices, uncertainty surrounding deep sea drilling and a<br />
more competitive royalty regime. Therefore, investment in non‐residential building construction is expected to<br />
start to recover and remain strong.<br />
While the oil industry is on a solid footing, within the natural gas sector there are ongoing structural implications<br />
for this key Alberta industry. Technology has unlocked vast supplies of shale gas across North America. This is a<br />
game changer for the natural gas industry in terms of feasibility of development, reserve estimates, and proximity<br />
of supply to markets. The new supply additions, coupled with weakened demand from industry, have resulted in a<br />
sustained downtrend in natural gas prices from $8.00 GJ to $4.00 GJ during the past two years. The implication is<br />
that the budget surplus party is over for the Alberta Government. In perspective, the leading source of revenue for<br />
the Alberta Government is energy resource revenue, accounting for 30% of total government revenue. The key<br />
challenge is that of the total resource revenue generated for the government, 65% is derived from natural gas,<br />
25% from oil sands, and 10% from conventional oil. Until the oil sands industry output increases substantively, the<br />
Alberta Government will be faced with lesser revenue. This has demand side implications for real estate,<br />
particularly the government office sector in Downtown Edmonton.<br />
The recovery in Alberta will be tied to the strength of oil prices, as the benefits will trickle down through the<br />
economy since both the manufacturing and trade industries are highly interconnected with the resource industry.<br />
8
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Calgary, Economic Overview<br />
Source: <strong>Altus</strong> Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada, CMHC, and Conference Board of Canada (data as at August, 2010)<br />
Calgary continues to have an economy where prosperity is linked to energy market conditions, as the Calgary<br />
CMA is home to many service‐providing companies along the energy‐sector value chain. The strong energy<br />
market over the past several years has resulted in nation leading population growth and Calgary now being the<br />
fifth largest city in Canada (as per 2006 Census). The local economy should strengthen in 2011, due in part to<br />
stronger global demand and higher prices for resources. Higher energy prices will likely lure some investment<br />
back to the province and Calgary should experience spin‐off benefits from the increased spending.<br />
Employment has continued to struggle in the region despite improvements throughout much of Canada. In the<br />
second quarter, employment was 0.5% lower than the same period in the previous year and 0.7% lower than the<br />
previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The annualized employment growth rate of 1.9% expected in<br />
2011 is still significantly slower than the annual average growth rate of 3.1% experienced over the last decade.<br />
9
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Despite wavering employment conditions, housing starts have continued to improve. In the second quarter,<br />
housing starts were almost double the level experienced in the same period in the previous year. However, there<br />
are signs that the housing market in Calgary is set to cool, as the number of newly completed and unabsorbed row<br />
and apartment units continues to increase and existing home sales have started to decline. However despite these<br />
risks, the Calgary housing market should continue to benefit from improved affordability as both new and existing<br />
house prices are below their pre‐recessionary peaks. Also, the region continues to have one of the strongest<br />
population growth rates of any large metropolitan area in Canada, which bodes well for market fundamentals.<br />
After experiencing double digit increases between 2004 and 2008, spending on non‐residential building<br />
construction has continued to decline. Activity in non‐residential construction was 1.9% lower in the second<br />
quarter of 2010 compared to the previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, despite these lower<br />
levels of construction spending there are some large projects in the pipeline, including the expansion of the<br />
Calgary Airport, which is expected to cost $45 million and be finished in 2013. Also, uncertainty surrounding future<br />
regulations for deep‐sea drilling could shift more investment to the Alberta oil and gas sectors and the region<br />
should experience spin‐off benefits associated with higher levels of investment.<br />
Although there is up‐side potential due to the possibility of increased spending in the oil and gas sectors, wavering<br />
employment conditions and a fragile U.S. recovery could dampen the recovery.<br />
10
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
SENIORS MARKET EVOLUTION & HISTORIC OVERVIEW<br />
Historically, the American seniors housing industry has been considered to be a decade in advance of the<br />
Canadian industry simply by virtue of the fundamental difference in the health care delivery systems in the two<br />
countries. This gap has closed considerably as today the two countries are operating on virtually identical<br />
marketplace premises.<br />
In Canada, the Federal Government’s commitment to a universal public health care system drove the retirement<br />
and health care industry to revolve principally around an institutional model with uniformly consistent products<br />
that were more nursing home like than hospitality. Investors in the industry were largely small local “mom and<br />
pop” entities. It is no coincidence that the vast majority of the existing inventory of projects (both public and<br />
private) developed across Canada before about 1995 are characterized by a preponderance of small bed‐sitting<br />
rooms, limited amenity spaces and cafeteria quality meal facilities, which are appropriate for a care model but not<br />
an independent model.<br />
In the US, the existence of strong private sector involvement in health care has driven investors, developers and<br />
operators to create distinctly different housing and health care options. Much of the evolution of products such as<br />
condominiums for seniors, campus style continuing care retirement communities, life‐care residences and stand‐<br />
alone lifestyle rental retirement residences have evolved from a fundamental understanding of the quality and<br />
customer service expectation in the private pay realm. Although there have been legacies of large, institutional<br />
nursing home owners and operators such as Beverly and Hillhaven, the rapid evolution of the lifestyle retirement<br />
industry was propelled by companies such as Sunrise and Marriott in the 1980’s which demonstrated that the<br />
business could be as much about “want” as about “need.”<br />
Customer service in the business of caring for seniors had thus proven to be a bona fide philosophy for<br />
profitability. In the 1990’s the nursing home sector began to feel the burden of customer expectation and out of<br />
this turmoil evolved the assisted living industry. This evolution blended the best of both nursing and lifestyle<br />
retirement living into a new service product that now placed a high premium on meeting the expectations of not<br />
only the seniors who were the residents, but also on meeting the expectations of the adult children of the seniors<br />
who were lynchpins in the decision making process for private pay nursing services. Success in this new paradigm<br />
required developers and operators to create buildings and unbundled services more into a menu instead of the<br />
one‐size‐fits‐all philosophies of the past. Indeed, the Baby Boomer adult children of seniors had become of<br />
paramount importance. Companies such as Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong> were spawned from this revolution and as the<br />
market accepted these products, the capital markets began to feel more comfortable with these products and<br />
companies.<br />
In Canada, it took until the late 1990’s for the capital markets to become comfortable with the appeal and<br />
profitability of the seniors housing sector. Apart from Extendicare and its focus on nursing homes, the launch of<br />
the Central Park Lodges LTC REIT in 1997 precipitated and paved the way to the public markets for companies<br />
such as Amica, Chartwell, Sunrise and CPAC. Interestingly, these companies have one thing in common; they are<br />
all committed in some degree to the principles of customer service in their residence development and operating<br />
models. These public companies, especially the large REITs, have both funded and private‐pay residences in their<br />
portfolios as expected in the Canadian context.<br />
11
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
A testimony to how closely converged the two countries are in terms of product development and business<br />
philosophy today is the fact that two of the largest Canadian public companies (Chartwell REIT and Extendicare)<br />
have residences in both Canada and the USA and manage them all from headquarters in Canada. Further, two of<br />
the longest standing national players in Canada are RRO (formerly Retirement Residences REIT) and Holiday<br />
Retirement Corp. It is in the context of daily business of these bi‐national developer operators that the inevitable<br />
convergence of the Canadian and American experiences will most rapidly occur.<br />
The shifting Canadian Provincial landscape for private sector involvement in the provision of assisted living is<br />
likely to open up significant opportunities for investors, developers and operators. Provinces such as Quebec and<br />
Alberta are leading the way in the level of cooperation between public and private sectors and demonstrate a real<br />
willingness to allow the private sector to evolve market‐driven services and products. It is the success of such<br />
public‐private initiatives and the continued positive experiences of the large public company investors that will<br />
lead to the growth in investment in Canada by American companies. Of course, the fact that the product<br />
segmentation differences of yesterday are becoming blurred to non‐existence also helps greatly.<br />
Nomenclature<br />
The seniors housing industry brings together elements of traditional real estate, together with hospitality and<br />
health care industries. The components of the industry as we know it today form a continuum of care that<br />
generally parallels the stages of aging. The following diagram illustrates the general business sectors of the<br />
industry in Canada.<br />
12<br />
INDEPENDENT LIVING > INDEPENDENT SERVICED LIVING > ASSISTED LIVING > MEMORY CARE > LONG TERM CARE<br />
This accommodation reflects a declining contribution of “real estate” and increasing contribution of “business”<br />
value through the continuum of care.<br />
Independent <strong>Living</strong> (IL) accommodation is typically an apartment/unit which has a full kitchen and which forms<br />
part of a larger seniors’ community. Suites may be owned or rented and cater to seniors who require minimal or<br />
no assistance with daily living. Sometimes a limited meals package and housekeeping are included in the basic<br />
rental/monthly fee but typically, services such as meals, housekeeping and laundry are normally provided on<br />
request for an additional charge. IL residences are not subsidized by the government and residents are<br />
responsible for the entire cost of accommodation and services.<br />
From a rental perspective, IL is most common in the Province of Quebec. In other Provinces, it is typically<br />
encountered in the non‐profit sector as rentals or life‐lease projects. An emerging trend for IL in Ontario and BC is<br />
ownership in the form of condominium apartments which are often attached in some fashion to a rental<br />
retirement home. Amenities and services of the rental building are made available to owners of the condos for a<br />
fee. Operators such as Amica (with JV developer partners) and CPAC (now part of Chartwell REIT) are innovators<br />
of this model in Canada.
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October 28, 2010<br />
Independent Serviced <strong>Living</strong> (ISL) and Assisted <strong>Living</strong> (AL) are typically associated with retirement residences and<br />
play the most significant role in the seniors’ housing industry, providing for the lifestyle wants of seniors while also<br />
catering to their physical needs as they age over time. They offer services such as 24 hour supervision and<br />
emergency response, 2 to 3 daily meals and snacks, planned social and physical activities, housekeeping and<br />
laundry services and assistance with one or more acts of daily living. Retirement homes are privately owned and<br />
are not regulated by the government except through local municipal by‐laws, building codes, etc. ISL and AL are<br />
differentiated by the service platform.<br />
ISL residences are more lifestyle oriented than AL, typically providing assistance with “instrumental” acts of daily<br />
living such as meal preparation, housekeeping and laundry, and with limited personal care services such as<br />
medication administration and/or assistance with weekly bathing. AL residences are a combination of housing,<br />
personalized supportive services and health care designed to meet the needs of those who require assistance with<br />
activities of daily living. Although the target market is 75+ years of age, the average age is typically about 85 years<br />
old. Typical services include assistance with transferring, bathing, grooming, medications, special diets, etc. The<br />
noted exception is the Province of Ontario where a retirement home operator is allowed to provide up to 1½<br />
hours per day of personal care without a license. This is the main distinguishing factor between the retirement<br />
home market in Ontario and others in Western Canada.<br />
In our view, this is an excellent opportunity for operators in Ontario. They can offer a continuum of care in their<br />
buildings, extending the average stay and create additional revenues along the way. This is particularly true since<br />
the LTC beds are now generally full (with a few exceptions) and care needs will again spill over into the private<br />
retirement home sector.<br />
Long Term Care (LTC) throughout the Canadian seniors housing sector is designed to accommodate residents<br />
who no longer are able to live independently and who require onsite nursing care, 24 hour supervision or personal<br />
support. LTC residences offer higher levels of personal care and support than is typically provided by independent<br />
living and/or retirement residences. Accommodation may include shared, semi‐private or private units. Most<br />
residences are licensed or require some level of government approval to operate and are eligible for government<br />
funding support subject to regulation and care standards.<br />
Development Trends<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s and their adult children (“influencers”) are increasingly becoming well‐informed about the housing<br />
options and service offerings available in the market. The stereotype of the “old folk’s home” is being replaced by<br />
an awareness and appreciation of the merits of specialty seniors housing arrangements. Increasingly, the<br />
healthier, more affluent senior is demanding and receiving the model of housing she or he wants, one offering a<br />
more independent lifestyle with care and support available, but only as needed. Most contemporary retirement<br />
homes now resemble hotels more than the nursing homes of previous generations. The industry is evolving to<br />
meet new needs and the demands of the seniors housing sector.<br />
Since residents in seniors housing residences of all types spend so much time in the residence and rely on the<br />
programs and staff for so much of their daily enjoyment, residence managers must be committed to excellence in<br />
service delivery. In addition to experience and expertise in providing health services to seniors, residence<br />
managers may also include professionals from the hospitality sector.<br />
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October 28, 2010<br />
With their growing affluence and the encouragement and support of their adult children, many more seniors are<br />
able to select more attractive ISL arrangements. These residences offer larger suites, more common areas,<br />
amenities and social programs. These residences look and feel like an apartment or hotel, offering services that<br />
residents enjoy and care that many residents need. The buildings offer increasingly sophisticated fire and safety<br />
systems, heating and cooling, and communications and emergency response technologies. In the long‐term care<br />
sector in Ontario (and in other provinces), new design standards and models are leading to the creation of less<br />
institutional, friendlier residences where the residents can better cope with their frailties and limitations with<br />
dignity.<br />
Marketing of retirement homes is becoming increasingly important for a number of reasons. First, with the<br />
expanding range of residences and programs being offered, it is necessary to educate consumers as to the choices<br />
available and to dispel the image of old‐style seniors homes. Second, marketing assists in reducing the time to<br />
achieve lease‐up, resulting in earlier stabilization. Third, effective marketing in the local community, through<br />
market positioning, understanding local needs and good relations with local health professionals, helps to ensure<br />
future referrals of new residents. With respect to LTC Residences, while occupancy is rarely a concern (given<br />
government control of supply and funding), the ability of a residence to attract residents willing to pay extra for<br />
preferred accommodation (such as private rooms) represents a profit opportunity which can be realized through<br />
effective marketing.<br />
In addition to new types and designs of seniors housing residences noted above, there are continuing<br />
improvements in technologies, treatments and options for seniors. These include sophisticated resident tracking<br />
and emergency response systems, the introduction of new medications targeting the deteriorating effects of<br />
dementia, enhanced ventilation systems, anti‐microbial/anti‐bacterial carpets, new food preparation systems,<br />
computer based monitoring/communications systems and portable telephones that permit staff to monitor all<br />
aspects of a building’s safety and security allowing prompt responses to resident requests. The increasing use of<br />
the internet as a communications tool has led to the introduction of internet stations as a standard component in<br />
the design of new residences. At the same time the search for, and selection of, accommodation for seniors<br />
increasingly involves obtaining information from the Internet, including seniors housing and healthcare, websites.<br />
The successful operation of any type of seniors housing residence demands a broad range of expertise. The<br />
operational skill sets required include property management, hotel services (food and lodging), social activation,<br />
management of health care programs, marketing and community relations, labour relations, and liaison with<br />
government, regulators and other professionals. Established industry leaders can attract and retain key<br />
managers, professionals and front‐line staff to provide all of these needed skills by offering better career paths<br />
and working conditions than smaller operators. Larger players also enjoy economies of scale in purchasing and<br />
can afford better marketing and branding strategies. For new entrants to the seniors housing sector, obtaining<br />
financing can be difficult since lenders and CMHC consider the level of experience when assessing any prospective<br />
operator’s loan application.<br />
The risks and rewards associated with seniors housing depend on the type of residences owned or operated. IL<br />
residences and retirement homes are similar to apartments in that space for living accommodation is rented, but<br />
with various levels of services also offered. The principal factors affecting occupancy levels and revenues of a<br />
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
residence are the size of the seniors’ population in the surrounding area and the residence types that the<br />
population requires. Effective marketing can positively influence revenues and occupancy rates.<br />
Profit margins for IL residences and retirement homes are generally higher than for LTC Residences. The<br />
ownership and operation of LTC Residences tends to involve lower risk but generate smaller profit margins than<br />
other types of seniors housing residences because of government regulation and higher levels of care and costs.<br />
The greatest risks for all types of seniors housing residences are in the development phase, which includes land<br />
assembly, zoning approvals, construction and lease‐up.<br />
Conclusions<br />
Up until the late 1990's, the retirement home industry was fragmented with a number of operators and few<br />
corporate entities. The product available for sale was largely institutional, involving small, nondescript buildings.<br />
Transactions were limited in number and generally reflected a range in overall cap rates between 11.0% and<br />
12.0%. Few contemporary projects had been sold or even offered for sale. During the past 10 years, the market<br />
has consolidated to some degree with the emergence of corporate and institutional investors. Their appetite for<br />
product and aggressive pricing, combined with the inherent difficulties competing with larger chains, has enticed<br />
or perhaps forced many smaller operators to divest.<br />
Sales volume has grown considerably beginning with the formation of Retirement Residences REIT [Revera] and<br />
later Chartwell REIT and Maestro Real Estate Capital Management. Not only has volume picked up, so has the<br />
quality of assets being offered for sale. 2007 was a significant year for transactions, particularly of portfolios; three<br />
notable transactions took place which affected the Canadian seniors housing market. The first to close was the<br />
Public Sector Pension Investment Board’s acquisition of Retirement Residences REIT. The second, the largest by<br />
dollar volume, was the acquisition of Holiday Retirement Corporation by the Fortress Investment Group. This was<br />
followed closely by Ventas REIT’s acquisition of Sunrise REIT. Prior to this the largest most significant portfolio<br />
acquisition involving Canadian seniors housing properties was in September 2003, when the “Lifestyles” portfolio<br />
was acquired by RRREIT. The transaction was significant for two reasons. Not only did it involve one of the<br />
country’s finest chains, but the REIT’s equity partner was Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.<br />
The market remains fragmented with only about 25% to 30% of the market being held by a small contingent of<br />
operators led by Chartwell REIT, Revera and Maestro. A pattern of capitalization rates and other relationships in<br />
this industry has emerged and has become relatively well established.<br />
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing Overview<br />
Alberta currently has over 370,000 seniors (residents over the age of 65), representing approximately 10% of the<br />
provincial population. This number has steadily increased over the past 20 years, and is expected to continue to<br />
grow into the near future due to a number of factors, including the aging of the “baby boomer” generation, lower<br />
birth rates, and longer life expectancy. It is estimated that in less than 20 years, the seniors’ populace will double,<br />
and that by 2031, one in five Albertans will be over 65 years in age. For Edmonton specifically, the most recent<br />
municipal census (2009) had 76,776 seniors living in that city. This represented 11% of the respondent population,<br />
relatively consistent with the provincial average.<br />
With the increase in life expectancy for people in the 20th Century, the proportion of senior citizens will continue<br />
to grow. According to Health Canada, since 1920, life expectancy has increased by an average of seven years for<br />
men and thirteen years for women. This will further increase the number of people over the age of 75.<br />
To meet future demands for seniors’ housing, the Government of Alberta has initiated the Affordable Supportive<br />
<strong>Living</strong> Initiative, and the Lodge Modernization and Improvement Program. The program has now committed<br />
funding to 60 organizations that will share $119 Million. In total, the funding will be used to build and modernize<br />
1,153 supportive living spaces and update 1,992 lodge units. Partnering organizations include municipalities, not‐<br />
for‐profit organizations, housing management bodies, and private sector companies. This funding is in addition<br />
to approximately $246 Million in capital funding since 1999 that has supported the development and<br />
modernization of approximately 4,800 supportive living housing units.<br />
The most recent trend in new construction in Alberta has seen significant development of Private Assisted <strong>Living</strong><br />
and Designated Assisted <strong>Living</strong> facilities. This trend is congruent with the demographics of the Province and will<br />
assist in accommodating the upcoming wave of seniors in need of appropriate housing services. The intention is<br />
also that the development of these types of facilities will bridge the gap between independent living and long‐<br />
term care, thus reducing the pressure on long‐term care facilities.<br />
As it relates to the demographic profile of Alberta seniors, the following discussion provides a brief summary of<br />
some pertinent facts.<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s on average earn less than those people below the age of 65 do. The most recent income data compiled<br />
on income of seniors is from 2004. The average pre‐tax income of senior families in Alberta was $56,200; the<br />
average pre‐tax income of unattached male seniors was $29,500; the average for unattached single female<br />
seniors was $25,500. The income earned by seniors is comprised of approximately 60% from non‐government<br />
sources.<br />
According to Statistics Canada, senior’s largest expenditure is shelter, accounting for 21% of overall total<br />
expenditures. The second largest expenditure is transportation, accounting for 16%.<br />
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
As it relates to housing expenditures, the following chart outlines the distribution of those over the age of 65 in<br />
terms of housing style.<br />
Overall, the senior demographic is a viable and growing customer base. Continued development of seniors<br />
housing will be required on a go forward basis, with new product being by both public and private organizations,<br />
or by way of joint public/private initiatives.<br />
In Alberta, the continuing care system is shared responsibility between Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s and Community Support<br />
and Alberta Health and Wellness. There are three streams of services/accommodations within the Alberta<br />
continuing care system; home living, supportive living, and facility living.<br />
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
� Home <strong>Living</strong> – Includes people who live in their own homes, including, but not limited to, single family<br />
dwellings, apartments, condominiums, and other independent living seniors apartments.<br />
� Supportive <strong>Living</strong> – Combines accommodations or housing and hospitality services with other supports and<br />
care. Supportive living operators are responsible for coordinating and arranging hospitality services and may<br />
coordinate or provide personal care and other support services. There are currently 4 levels of supportive<br />
living care offered in the Province of Alberta.<br />
� Facility <strong>Living</strong> – Include long term care facilities (ie. Nursing homes, auxiliary hospitals) that provide care for<br />
individuals whose health needs are such that they are unable to remain at home or in a supportive living<br />
accommodations.<br />
Prior to 1993, there were 180 health boards in the Province of Alberta. In 1994, 17 health regions were created by<br />
government with appointed boards to manage operational decision making at the local level. Many new<br />
initiatives were developed for seniors, including the concept of “designated assisted living” and increased<br />
supportive living complexes. In 2003, the number of health regions was further reduced to nine.<br />
In May 2008, the Alberta government announced its decision to govern the province with one health system<br />
under the Alberta Health Services Board. This replaced the nine health regions previously in place that were<br />
accountable to the Minister of Health and Wellness. Previously, each of these nine health regions was responsible<br />
for their own standards, accountabilities, language of services and funding structures. The belief was that these<br />
separate structures lacked the consistency, equity and flexibility necessary to adequately administer the services.<br />
Application Process<br />
An assessment of the seniors’ health and personal need is completed via a Continuing Care Placement<br />
Coordinator with the Alberta Health Services Board. The function of the coordinator is to assess the needs of a<br />
person for nursing home care of continuation of nursing home care.<br />
18<br />
(1) Under the Nursing Home Act, to be eligible for benefits, a “resident of Alberta” means a person lawfully<br />
entitled to be or to remain in Canada, who makes the person’s home and ordinarily a resident in Alberta<br />
and any other person deemed by the regulations to be a resident of Alberta, but does not include a<br />
tourist, transient, or visitor to Alberta<br />
(2) Benefits may be paid in respect of a resident:<br />
a. Who has been found by an assessment committee appointed pursuant to the regulations to require<br />
nursing home care,<br />
b. Who is a resident of Alberta and has resided in Alberta for a period prescribed in the regulations, and<br />
c. Who meets other requirements or conditions prescribed by the regulations<br />
(3) Benefits may not be paid in respect of a resident:<br />
a. If payment for the resident’s nursing home care is the responsibility of:<br />
i) The Worker’s Compensation Board<br />
ii) The Department of Veterans Affairs (Canada)<br />
iii) The Department of National Defence (Canada)
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
iv) The Medical Services Branch of Health Canada<br />
b. If the assessment committee finds that the resident is no longer in need of nursing home care or that<br />
the resident no longer meets other requirements or conditions prescribed by the regulations.<br />
(4) Nothing under this Act prevents a person who does not desire any or all of the benefits under this Act<br />
from assuming the responsibility for the payment of any or all of the costs of the person’s care in a<br />
nursing home<br />
Regulation<br />
The major pieces of regulation governing long term care facilities are the Long Term Care Accommodation<br />
Standards and the Continuing Care Health Services Standards. Alberta Health and Wellness is responsible for<br />
health care services while Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s and Community Supports assumes responsibility for overseeing the<br />
Government’s role in the provision of accommodation services. Until recently, regional health authorities<br />
monitored and enforced compliance with the Continuing Care Health Services Standards at the regional and<br />
operational level.<br />
Alberta Health and Wellness is responsible for publicly funded continuing care health services and has developed<br />
the Continuing Care Health Services Standards. Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s and Community Supports is responsible for<br />
overseeing the Government’s role in the provision of accommodation services and has developed standards for<br />
long term care homes and supportive living residences. The standards were originally developed in 2006, and<br />
have been revised on an annual basis. The standards were developed in consultation with the regional health<br />
authorities (in place at that time), continuing care operators/agencies, professional associations, and various other<br />
stakeholders. The document identifies standards for the provision of quality continuing health services and it<br />
applies to all publically funded continuing care health services regardless of whether they are provided directly by,<br />
or under contract to, the applicable health authority. It is intended to build upon existing legislation and includes<br />
standards that are currently not in legislation. The Continuing Care Health Services Standards are based on the<br />
following six principles:<br />
� Client Centred Care – care planning, coordinating and delivery of services are centred on the client and their<br />
unique needs and preferences. The client participates in decisions regarding their care and their<br />
decisions/choices respected to the extent possible.<br />
� Integrated Care Teams – all individuals who are providing care work together to develop and implement a<br />
care plan. Team members know their roles and responsibilities and work together and support one another in<br />
delivering the best possible care.<br />
� Client and Family Involvement – clients/families are part of the integrated care team. They understand their<br />
roles/responsibilities and what is expected of them and are supported in making informed decisions about<br />
their care.<br />
� Wellness & Safety – clients are provided with services designed to address their assessed health needs and<br />
promote and maintain their wellbeing in a safe manner.<br />
� Quality Assurance – making sure a minimum quality of care is provided through compliance with the<br />
standards.<br />
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
� Quality improvement – improving the quality of care being provided through evidence based best practices,<br />
supporting innovation and creativity, and creating a culture of quality. This should incorporate the six<br />
dimensions of quality of the Alberta Quality Matrix for Health developed by the Health Quality Council of<br />
Alberta.<br />
Summary of DAL, EDAL & LTC Services<br />
Rent for DAL units includes all of the features of a typical the ISL service platform as well as up to 2 hours per day<br />
of personal care. EDAL residents receive up to 3 hours of personal care per day. These care requirements are set<br />
forth under the provincial regulations and personal care may include services such as; assistance with<br />
medications, dressing and grooming assistance, portering, cueing, bathing assistance, and assistance with eating.<br />
EDAL residents generally suffer from cognitive impairment and these residents require more one‐on‐one<br />
assistance within a secured setting. LTC residents receive all the services offered to the DAL and EDAL residents;<br />
however, LTC residents generally have more complex medical needs and they receive approximately 3.6 hours of<br />
personal care per day.<br />
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Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
REGIONAL & CITY DESCRIPTION<br />
Calgary is the largest city in Alberta and the third largest city [by population] in Canada. It has an area of 722<br />
square kilometres. The city serves as the hub of Canada’s fifth largest Census Metropolitan Area. It is located at<br />
the junction of the Bow and Elbow Rivers, in the foothills of Alberta's Rocky Mountains. Calgary is the<br />
predominant urban centre in Midwest Canada.<br />
Calgary is well served by its advanced transportation infrastructure. The TransCanada Highway runs through the<br />
heart of downtown Calgary and provides a linkage to Swift Current and Regina to the east and Kamloops and<br />
Vancouver to the west. Highway #2 provides regional north‐sought access connecting to Red Deer to the north<br />
and the Canada‐United States border to the south. Calgary Transit offers local public transportation throughout<br />
the city. Calgary International Airport offers domestic and international flights. It is the third busiest airport in the<br />
country, serving more than 12 million passengers on an annual basis.<br />
Despite much diversification in recent years, Calgary's economy is still dominated by the oil and gas industry. The<br />
larger companies include EnCana, Petro‐Canada, Shell Canada, Imperial Oil, Suncor Energy, and TransCanada.<br />
Agriculture, tourism, and the high‐tech industries have also contributed to the city's rapid economic growth in<br />
recent years. Other large employers include the Forzani Group, ATCO, Shaw Cable and Westjet.<br />
The Calgary Health Region serves a population base of more than 1.2 million people. The Calgary Health Region<br />
has approximately 2,300 doctors, 12 hospitals, 4 comprehensive health centres, and 41 care centres. The City of<br />
Calgary is served by four major hospitals; Alberta Children’s Hospital, Foothills Medical Centre, Peter Lougheed<br />
and Rockyview General Hospital. The Alberta Children’s Hospital is a state of the art facility that opened in 2006<br />
and it is one of the largest paediatric hospitals in the country.<br />
Location<br />
The subject property is located in the southwest area of Calgary, approximately 3 kilometres from downtown. It is<br />
situated at the intersection of Elbow Drive and 49 th Avenue SW within the residential neighbourhood of “Elboya”,<br />
immediately adjacent to the affluent Britannia neighbourhood.<br />
Elboya is an established inner city community in southwest Calgary. The majority of the area can be characterized<br />
as low density, single family residential with commercial development fronting Macleod Trail SW and Elbow<br />
Drive. Due to its setting in a prime, inner city location, redevelopment and gentrification are ongoing with new,<br />
custom built in‐fill homes replacing existing older housing stock. The community has good access to the<br />
downtown core via Macleod Trail SW and Elbow Drive SW, which form the east and west boundaries of the<br />
district respectively. The southern boundary of the district is formed by 50th Avenue SW and to the north by<br />
Elbow River. Stanley Park and Britannia border to the north and Windsor Park is immediately south.<br />
Average household incomes in neighbourhoods within 3 kilometres of the site where the majority of residents are<br />
expected to be drawn from include Britannia [$282,965], Elbow Park [$264,610}, Stanley Park [$388,186], Eagle<br />
Ridge [$269,290] and Belaire [$219,300]. Based on the trend, it is reasonable to conclude that average incomes in<br />
the subject area will continue to rise as new infill development expands.<br />
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4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Subject Property<br />
The following table summarizes 2009 average and median house prices in surrounding districts according to the<br />
Calgary Real Estate Board statistics:<br />
2009 Residential Sales<br />
Neighbourhood Sales Average Median<br />
Elboya 26 $832,635 $550,000<br />
Elbow Park/Glencoe 69 $1,384,508 $1,040,000<br />
Parkhill/Stanley Park 23 $630,656 $635,000<br />
Britannia 5 $1,234,600 $840,000<br />
Bel‐Aire 4 $1,551,750 $1,325,000<br />
Windsor Park 41 $528,097 $490,000<br />
Roxborough 7 $1,800,928 $1,885,000<br />
Meadowlark Park 19 $528,494 $433,000
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
According to PrizmC2 data [Environics Analytics], affluence classifications in the area are as follows:<br />
PRIZMC2 Affluence Groups<br />
20.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
Very Wealthy<br />
11.4%<br />
Wealthy<br />
15.9%<br />
Upscale<br />
9.1%<br />
Upper‐Middle<br />
12.5%<br />
This trend is evident in local commercial development. Opposite the subject site is Britannia Plaza, an outdoor<br />
strip neighbourhood centre containing a high end grocer [Sunterra], Starbucks Coffee and other local retail shops.<br />
Chinook Shopping Centre, the largest enclosed shopping mall in Calgary, is about 1.5 kilometres southeast, just<br />
north of Glenmore Trail. Calgary Golf & Country Club, a 100+ year old private members course, is immediately<br />
southwest of the subject property. Several parks straddle the Elbow River as it winds its way up through the City.<br />
Middle<br />
15.0%<br />
Lower‐Middle<br />
17.4%<br />
Downscale<br />
11.9%<br />
6.7%<br />
Low<br />
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4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Site Position Full‐block<br />
Local Access Elbow Drive<br />
Regional Access Excellent regional access via Highways #8 [Glenmore Trail] and #2 [Blackfoot<br />
Trail], although congested at peak hours of the day<br />
Public Transit Excellent access to public transit; bus service on Elbow Drive and BRT Train at<br />
nearby Chinook Station<br />
Land Uses in Area<br />
North Residential<br />
West Residential and Commercial retail; Elbow River and parklands beyond<br />
South Commercial [service], Calgary Golf & Country Club<br />
East Institutional [St. Anthony School], residential and large industrial park beyond<br />
Nearest hospital Rockyview General Hospital [3 km southwest]<br />
Visibility & Accessibility<br />
Photograph → Corner of Elbow Drive & 49 th Avenue SW<br />
The subject property is a regular shaped parcel of land comprising a total site area of 32,400 square feet (0.74<br />
acres), more or less. The site has three street frontages; 48 th Avenue, 49 th Avenue and Elbow Drive. The building<br />
will face west with the primary frontage on Elbow Drive.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Access to the property is via two curb cuts off Elbow Drive, with a service entrance off 49 th Avenue. The subject<br />
property has excellent visibility and exposure with its position on a corner block.<br />
Proposed Improvement<br />
The subject property will be improved with a 4 storey, luxury, boutique style retirement residence with a single<br />
storey below grade. It will be a purpose‐built, state‐of‐the‐art structure comprising 73 suites offering private and<br />
semi‐private accommodation to a targeted total of 85 residents. It will contain generous common areas and<br />
amenities throughout, specifically designed to facilitate the assisted and memory care service offering.<br />
25
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
First Floor – Primary Amenity Space<br />
Second Floor – Memory Care<br />
Third Floor – Assisted <strong>Living</strong>
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Fourth Floor – Memory Care<br />
Basement ‐ Parking<br />
Layout<br />
The subject property will contain 73 suites including 42 AL and 31 ALZ. The AL will comprise 35 studios ranging<br />
between 347 and 398 square feet and 7 one bedroom ranging between 476 and 491 square feet. The ALZ suite mix<br />
includes 18 studios ranging between 347 and 360 square feet and 12 shared suites measuring 476 square feet.<br />
The main floor contains the primary common areas including lobby/reception, lounges, activity room, games &<br />
fitness room, dining room, kitchen, bistro, wellness spa and administration offices.<br />
The third floor has medical offices, dining room, activity areas and lounges specifically designed for the AL<br />
program. The fourth floor [AZZ] has a small dining area, activity area and lounge. It also has a rooftop deck.<br />
The basement contains 31 parking spaces accessed via a ramp off 49 th Avenue, commercial laundry, mechanical<br />
rooms, storage space and resident lockers.<br />
27
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE<br />
The area in which the subject property is expected to draw the majority of its residents from is known as the<br />
Primary Market Area [PMA]. The PMA for the proposed subject property encompasses the southwesterly portion<br />
of the City of Calgary, south of the 17 th Avenue, east of Crowchild Trail/37 th Street SW, north of Fish Creek/Canyon<br />
Meadows Drive SE, and west of Queen Elizabeth Highway/Blackfoot Trail/McLeod Trail. The PMA is shown on the<br />
map below.<br />
Total Population<br />
Based on the 2006 Canadian Census the PMA had a population of 163,713. Currently the PMA population is<br />
estimated at 171,594 persons, which is an average growth of 1.6% per year since the 2006 census. Between 2010<br />
and 2015 the total population is expected to decrease by 0.3% per year and between 2015 and 2020 the decline is<br />
projected to continue at 0.1% per year. Projected population growth in the PMA is lower than the projected rate<br />
of growth in the Calgary CMA.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Total Population<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Population Population<br />
Actual 2006 163,713 1,079,310<br />
2010 171,594 1,208,438<br />
2013 169,656 1,321,208<br />
2015 168,748 1,403,453<br />
2020 167,987 1,636,125<br />
Projected<br />
Change 2006 ‐ 2010 7,881 129,128<br />
Change 2010 ‐ 2015 ‐2,846 195,015<br />
Change 2015 ‐ 2020 ‐761 232,672<br />
Total Population Change [per annum]<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Change/Year Change/Year<br />
Change 2006 ‐ 2010 1.6% 4.0%<br />
Change 2010 ‐ 2015 ‐0.3% 3.2%<br />
Change 2015 ‐ 2020 ‐0.1% 3.3%<br />
From the population pyramid below and a comparison of the population age groups to those in the Calgary CMA,<br />
the PMA overall has a middle‐aged population structure.<br />
Age 85 +<br />
80 to 84<br />
75 to 79<br />
70 to 74<br />
65 to 69<br />
60 to 64<br />
55 to 59<br />
50 to 54<br />
45 to 49<br />
40 to 44<br />
35 to 39<br />
30 to 34<br />
25 to 29<br />
20 to 24<br />
15 t o 19<br />
10 t o 14<br />
5 to 9<br />
0 to 4<br />
Population Pyramid [2010]<br />
5% 2% 0 2% 5%<br />
Percentage<br />
Female ‐ PMA<br />
Male ‐ PMA<br />
29
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s’ Population<br />
The tables below summarize current seniors’ population and projected seniors’ population growth for the age<br />
cohorts 65‐74, 75‐84 years and 85+ years of age.<br />
<strong>Senior</strong> Population<br />
PMA<br />
65‐74 75‐84 85+<br />
Actual 2006 11,111 7,664 2,398<br />
2010 11,947 7,969 2,999<br />
2013 13,632 7,882 3,323<br />
2015 14,899 7,856 3,514<br />
2020 18,592 8,725 3,814<br />
Projected<br />
<strong>Senior</strong> Population Change [per annum]<br />
Change 2006 ‐ 2010 836 305 601<br />
Change 2010 ‐ 2015 2,952 ‐113 515<br />
Change 2015 ‐ 2020 3,693 869 300<br />
65‐74 75‐84 85+<br />
PMA Calgary CMA PMA Calgary CMA PMA Calgary CMA<br />
2006 ‐ 2010 2.5% 3.4% 1.3% 2.6% 8.4% 5.7%<br />
2010 ‐ 2015 4.9% 8.2% ‐0.3% 2.3% 3.4% 6.5%<br />
2015 ‐ 2020 5.0% 8.6% 2.2% 3.4% 1.7% 4.0%<br />
According to the 2006 Census, the PMA had 11,111 seniors between the ages of 65 to 75 years old. Currently it is<br />
estimated that there are 11,947 seniors’ within the same age group, which is an increase of 2.5% per year from the<br />
2006 Census. The rate of growth for the next five‐year period is projected to be 4.9% and between 2015 and 2020<br />
the rate of growth is projected to be 5.0% per year.<br />
For the population segment 75 to 84 years old the population has increased from 7,664 persons in 2006 to 7,969<br />
persons today, a change of 1.3% per year. The rate of growth will continue at ‐0.3% between 2010 and 2015 and<br />
2.2% between 2015 and 2020.<br />
There are 2,999 seniors 85 years of age and older in the PMA which is an increase from 2,398 in 2006. Growth in<br />
the seniors’ population 85+ was 8.4% per year between 2006 and 2010, and is projected to continue to increase at<br />
a rate of 3.4% between 2010 and 2015 and 1.7% between 2015 and 2020.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
31
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Income<br />
The average household income in the PMA is 107,188, 10% greater than the Calgary CMA average.<br />
Average Household Income [2006]<br />
$120,000<br />
$100,000<br />
$80,000<br />
$60,000<br />
$40,000<br />
$20,000<br />
$0<br />
$107,188<br />
$95,948<br />
PMA Calgary CMA
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
According to PRIZMC2 affluence segmentation, the percentage of the population in the various affluence classes<br />
are 6.6% very wealthy, 16.8% wealthy, 17.3% upscale, 15.7% upper‐middle, 21.3% middle, 11.0% lower‐middle,<br />
8.3% downscale, and 3.0% low affluence. PRIZMC2 is a segmentation system developed by Environics Analytics to<br />
help identify and describe characteristics of neighbourhoods. One such segmentation is by affluence class.<br />
Affluence segmentation provides an indication of the relative wealth and prosperity in the population.<br />
PRIZMC2 Affluence Groups<br />
30.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
Very Wealthy<br />
6.6%<br />
Wealthy<br />
16.8% 17.3% 15.7%<br />
Upscale<br />
Upper‐Middle<br />
Middle<br />
21.3%<br />
Lower‐Middle<br />
11.0%<br />
Downscale<br />
8.3%<br />
3.0%<br />
Low<br />
33
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s’ Income<br />
The average seniors’ individual income for those 65‐74 years old is $ 61,581, 29% greater than the average seniors’<br />
income in the Calgary CMA. For seniors 75+ years of age, average income is $52,376, or 33% greater than the<br />
average seniors’ income in the Calgary CMA.<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s Individual Income [2005]<br />
$70,000<br />
$60,000<br />
$50,000<br />
$40,000<br />
$30,000<br />
$20,000<br />
$10,000<br />
$0<br />
$61,581<br />
$43,910<br />
$52,376<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s 65‐74 <strong>Senior</strong>s 75+<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
$35,194
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
The majority of seniors’ incomes fall below $25,000 per year which is typical of most areas. For the age group 65‐<br />
74 years, 43% are below and for those 75 years of age and older, 48% are below.<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s Individual Income<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
65‐74 75+ 65‐74 75+<br />
less than $25,000 43% 48% 52% 60%<br />
$25,000 ‐ $35,000 17% 17% 15% 16%<br />
$35,000 ‐ $50,000 16% 14% 14% 12%<br />
$50,000 and above 25% 21% 18% 13%<br />
Summary tables below show the main sources of seniors’ income for the age group 65‐74 years old and 75+ years<br />
of age. Virtually all seniors (65+ years) receive some form of government transfers [Old Age Security, Canadian<br />
Pension Plan, Guaranteed Income Supplements or Spouse’s Allowance Payment].<br />
Additionally, 63% of seniors’ 64‐75 and 71% of seniors 75+ years have private pensions with an annual income of<br />
$18,810 and $21,644 respectively.<br />
For the age group 65‐74, 65% have investment income reflecting an average of $14,625 per annum. For the age<br />
group 75+ years of age, 74% have investment income at an average of $15,143.<br />
The forth main source of seniors’ income is RRSP income. In the PMA, 13% of the seniors’ population 65‐74 years<br />
and 14% of the 75+ years of age has RRSP income. The average is $8,218 for those 65‐74 years and $8,095 for<br />
those 75+ years. Lastly, 39% (65‐74) and 38% (75+) of seniors have other sources of income and the average<br />
annual amounts equal $7,775 and $8,039 respectively.<br />
Main Sources of Income (65‐74)<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
% receiving Average $ % receiving Average $<br />
Government Transfer Payments 98% $12,264 98% $12,191<br />
Private Pensions 63% $18,810 56% $17,138<br />
Investment Income 65% $14,625 56% $9,537<br />
RRSP Income 13% $8,218 13% $7,588<br />
Other Income 39% $7,775 32% $6,849<br />
Main Sources of Income (75+)<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
% receiving Average $ % receiving Average $<br />
Government Transfer Payments 100% $13,346 100% $13,566<br />
Private Pensions 71% $21,644 62% $16,908<br />
Investment Income 74% $15,143 66% $9,093<br />
RRSP Income 14% $8,095 11% $6,218<br />
Other Income 38% $8,039 29% $5,622<br />
35
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Immigration & Ethnic Diversity<br />
Immigrants in the PMA represent 19% of the total population. About 22% of the population is classified as first<br />
generation Canadians. First generation person are defined as those born outside of Canada. An additional 22%<br />
are classified as second generation, which are those with at least one parent born outside Canada. Finally, 56% are<br />
classified as third generation or more which are persons with both parents born in Canada.<br />
Immigrant/Non‐Immigrant Population<br />
Total<br />
Immigrants<br />
19%<br />
Non‐<br />
Immigrant<br />
Population<br />
81%<br />
Generation Status<br />
3rd<br />
generation<br />
56%<br />
1st<br />
generation<br />
22%<br />
2nd<br />
generation<br />
22%
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
The top regional ethnicities in the PMA are: European and North American. The PMA has a higher percentage of<br />
European regional ethnicity when compared to the Calgary CMA.<br />
Regional Ethnicity<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
European 74.7% 67%<br />
North American 16.5% 17%<br />
Asian, Oceanic 6.5% 13%<br />
Latin, Central and South America 0.7% 1%<br />
African 0.7% 1%<br />
Arab 0.5% 1%<br />
Caribeean 0.4% 1%<br />
37
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Visible minorities represent 11.3% of the population within the PMA. The top visible minorities are: Chinese (3.4%)<br />
and South Asian (1.8%). The PMA has a lower percentage of visible minority population than Calgary CMA.<br />
Mobility<br />
Visible Minority Population<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Not a visible minority 88.7% 77.8%<br />
Total visible minority pop 11.3% 22.2%<br />
Chinese 3.4% 6.2%<br />
South Asian 1.8% 5.4%<br />
Black 1.1% 2.0%<br />
Filipino 1.6% 2.4%<br />
Latin American 0.9% 1.3%<br />
Southeast Asian 0.4% 1.5%<br />
Arab 0.4% 1.1%<br />
West Asian 0.3% 0.6%<br />
Korean 0.4% 0.6%<br />
Japanese 0.5% 0.4%<br />
Visible Minority n.i.e 0.1% 0.2%<br />
Mulitple visible minority 0.3% 0.6%<br />
Mobility is a measure of the number of people who lived at the same address on the day of the census as they did<br />
one year prior. Non‐movers are those that have not moved and movers are those who have moved within the past<br />
year based on the census date. In the PMA, 19% of the population are movers. This percentage is lower than the<br />
Calgary CMA average.<br />
Mobility statistics can be used to examine attraction or draw to a PMA and help predict locations of population<br />
growth based on inflow.<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Non‐<br />
Movers<br />
81%<br />
Movers<br />
19%<br />
Non‐<br />
Movers<br />
80%<br />
Movers<br />
20%
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Those residents that did move can be classified into four groups: non‐migrant, intra‐provincial, interprovincial and<br />
external migrants. Non‐migrant movers are those who have moved within the same city/town. Intra‐provincial<br />
movers are those that have moved to a new location within the same province. Inter‐provincial movers are those<br />
that have moved from another province and finally external migrants are those that have moved to Canada from<br />
another country.<br />
Of the residents in the PMA there was a higher disposition for them to be Non‐Migrant Interprovincial movers.<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Non‐Migrant<br />
69%<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s’ Mobility<br />
External<br />
7%<br />
Intraprovincial<br />
8%<br />
Interprovincial<br />
16%<br />
Non‐Migrant<br />
68%<br />
External<br />
8%<br />
Intraprovincial<br />
10%<br />
Interprovincial<br />
14%<br />
It is also possible to examine mobility in the seniors’ population 75+. The pie charts below compare mobility of the<br />
seniors’ population in the PMA to the seniors’ population in the Calgary CMA. Overall seniors’ mobility in the PMA<br />
is less than in the Calgary CMA.<br />
PMA Calgary CMA Calgary CMA<br />
Non‐<br />
Movers<br />
80%<br />
Movers<br />
20%<br />
Non‐Movers<br />
74%<br />
Movers<br />
26%<br />
39
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Of the senior movers, the highest percentage is Non‐Migrant. There are a higher percentage of Non‐Migrant<br />
movers in the PMA when compared to the Calgary CMA.<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Non‐Migrant<br />
75%<br />
Education & Labour<br />
External<br />
2%<br />
Intraprovincial<br />
9%<br />
Interprovincial<br />
14%<br />
Non‐<br />
Migrant<br />
70%<br />
External<br />
4%<br />
Intraprovincial<br />
11%<br />
Interprovincial<br />
15%<br />
A greater percentage of the seniors’ population 65+ years in the PMA have a college or university education when<br />
compared to the Calgary CMA. Higher level of education is typically a good indicator for retirement home living.<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
Education [<strong>Senior</strong>s 65+]<br />
No certificate, diploma or<br />
degree<br />
High school certificate or<br />
equivalent<br />
Apprenticeship or trades<br />
certificate or diploma<br />
Occupations of residents in the PMA have been summarized below.<br />
College, CEGEP or other<br />
non‐university certificate or<br />
diploma<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
University certificate<br />
diploma or degree
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Occupations<br />
Sales and service 22%<br />
Business, finance and administrative 21%<br />
Management 13%<br />
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 12%<br />
Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 11%<br />
Social science, education, government service and religion 8%<br />
Health occupations 5%<br />
Art, culture, recreation and sport 4%<br />
Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 2%<br />
Occupations unique to primary industries 2%<br />
The highest percentage of people in the PMA have jobs in sales and service, business, finance and administrative,<br />
and management fields.<br />
The table below indicates the hours of unpaid care or assistance provided by individuals aged 15 years or older to<br />
seniors in the PMA [hours per week].<br />
Dwellings, Families & <strong>Living</strong> Arrangements<br />
Unpaid Care to <strong>Senior</strong>s<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
No hours 85% 85%<br />
Less than 5 hours 10% 9%<br />
5 to 9 hours 3% 3%<br />
10 to 19 hours 1% 1%<br />
20 hours 1% 1%<br />
Within the PMA, 68% of the dwellings are owned and 32% are rented. Comparing these percentages to the<br />
Calgary CMA, a higher percentage are owners in the City. Of these owners, the predominant housing type is<br />
single‐detached dwelling.<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Owned<br />
68%<br />
Rented<br />
32%<br />
Owned<br />
74%<br />
Rented<br />
26%<br />
41
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Dwelling Types<br />
Apt [5 storeys]<br />
25%<br />
Single‐detached<br />
52%<br />
Within the PMA the largest percentage of household maintainers are between the ages of 45 to 54 years old and<br />
this percentage is less than the Calgary CMA average. A household maintainer is defined as the person(s) in the<br />
household who pay the majority of the cost associated with the dwelling (i.e. rent or mortgage, taxes and<br />
electricity). The age distribution of household maintainers is equally skewed towards younger age groups.<br />
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
Age of Household Maintainers<br />
under 25 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 years and over<br />
Individuals are classified by Statistics Canada into one of the following three family types:<br />
� Couple Families – Couples living together<br />
� Lone Parent Families – A lone parents with at least one dependent child<br />
� Non‐Family Persons – Single or widowed individuals<br />
PMA<br />
Calgary CMA<br />
The following pie charts outline the percentages of the three seniors’ population cohorts within each family type.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
[65‐74]<br />
[75‐84]<br />
[85+]<br />
Couples<br />
74%<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Non‐family<br />
persons<br />
24%<br />
Couples<br />
56%<br />
Non‐family<br />
persons<br />
40%<br />
Non‐family<br />
persons<br />
66%<br />
Couples<br />
30%<br />
Lone parent<br />
2%<br />
Lone<br />
parent<br />
4%<br />
Lone parent<br />
4%<br />
[65‐74]<br />
[75‐84]<br />
[85+]<br />
Couples<br />
71%<br />
Non‐family<br />
persons<br />
26%<br />
Couples<br />
54%<br />
Non‐<br />
family<br />
persons<br />
42%<br />
Non‐family<br />
persons<br />
67%<br />
Couples<br />
28%<br />
Lone parent<br />
3%<br />
Lone<br />
parent<br />
4%<br />
Lone parent<br />
5%<br />
Among non‐family persons 65+ in the PMA, 84% live alone, 8% live with relatives and 6% are living with non‐<br />
relatives. The percentage of seniors (65+) living alone in the PMA is slightly greater than in the Calgary CMA.<br />
43
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
PMA Calgary CMA<br />
Non‐Relatives<br />
6%<br />
Relatives<br />
8%<br />
Summary<br />
The PMA strengths are:<br />
Alone<br />
86%<br />
� Above average household and seniors’ income<br />
<strong>Living</strong> Alone<br />
77%<br />
Relatives<br />
17%<br />
� PRIZMC2 affluence distribution skewed towards wealthy & upscale and upscale<br />
� Above average levels of higher education for seniors 65+<br />
� A home‐owners’ market<br />
� Low proportion of visible minority groups<br />
� 56% of all immigrants are 3 rd generation<br />
� A greater percentage of seniors living alone than in the Calgary CMA<br />
The PMA weaknesses are:<br />
� Below average growth in total and seniors’ population<br />
Non‐Relatives<br />
6%
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
PRIZMC2 LIFESTYLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS<br />
PRIZMC2 segmentation includes a lifestyle clustering segmentation that groups and describes<br />
neighbourhood clusters across Canada into 66 mutually exclusive clusters. Each cluster is<br />
demographically and behaviourally distinct and offers a wealth of information such a personal lifestyle<br />
preferences, buying patterns, and motivations. The top five overall PRIZMC2 clusters in the PMA are: Suburban<br />
Gentry, Mr. & Ms. Manager, Grads & Pads, Suburban Rows, and Nearly Empty Nests which encompass 42.0% of<br />
the PMA population indicating a low to moderate clustering pattern.<br />
Top Five PRIZMC2 Clusters % of Total<br />
Suburban Gentry 10.0%<br />
Mr. & Ms. Manager 8.8%<br />
Grads & Pads 8.1%<br />
Suburban Rows 7.7%<br />
Nearly Empty Nests 7.4%<br />
Total % 42.0%<br />
Following is a brief description of the people that make up the top 5 clusters:<br />
Suburban Gentry Wealthy, middle‐aged suburban families<br />
The Suburban Gentry segment is a magnet for Canada’s up‐and‐coming business class: a prosperous suburban world of<br />
dual‐income couples who have university degrees and large families, typically with teens or university‐aged children.<br />
Given its high percentage of managers, scientists, artists and government workers, there’s a decided professional tone to<br />
this cluster. Suburban Gentry residents rank near the top for owning computer software, taking business trips and<br />
acquiring a small business loan. These consumers are big spenders who like to belong to golf clubs, gamble at casinos, go<br />
to the theatre and attend pro basketball, tennis and soccer matches. Fitness conscious, they’re much more likely than<br />
average Canadians to jog, take aerobics classes, and play racquet sports and basketball. Many take pride in their healthy<br />
lifestyle, telling researchers, “I feel guilty when I eat ‘junk food.’”<br />
Mr. & Ms. Manager Upscale, dual‐income exurban households<br />
Mr. & Ms. Manager is home to Canada’s working couples living in the exurban sprawl beyond the nation’s largest cities.<br />
The residents of these communities tend to be prosperous executives who like their toys: boats, computers, home theatre<br />
systems and impressive collections of sporting equipment. These families and couples enjoy outdoor activities like golf,<br />
skiing, power boating and canoeing. They don’t mind driving their kids to the zoo, national park or a hockey game as long<br />
as they get time to take in a variety of exhibitions, from crafts and gardening to boats and investments. And though Mr. &<br />
Ms. Manager residents typically commute by car to nearby cities, they enjoy their exurban settings, preferring to go<br />
camping over seeing an opera, and driving a pickup truck rather than owning a sport<br />
sedan.<br />
Grads & Pads Young, lower‐middle‐class urban singles<br />
The nation’s most liberal lifestyle, Grads & Pads is a collection of young, ethnically diverse city dwellers living near<br />
universities. Its residents are a progressive mix of well‐educated singles, students and recent grads, white‐collar<br />
professionals and service workers—all living in apartments a short commute to work by public transit or walking. Their<br />
incomes aren’t high, but these young adults just entering the workforce enjoy the freedom of spending their first<br />
paycheques solely on themselves. With three‐quarters of the adults unattached, Grads & Pads residents are nightowls<br />
who frequent bars, nightclubs, restaurants, rock concerts, art galleries and ballet performances. They like to stay active by<br />
skiing, scuba diving, doing aerobics and working out at health clubs. They’re also political activists who work for social<br />
causes, write to public officials and volunteer for political parties and politicians who support their liberal views.<br />
45
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Suburban Rows Younger, thriving immigrant families<br />
Scattered across the provinces, Suburban Rows is composed of younger, middle‐class immigrant families living in<br />
suburban and urban row houses. More than a quarter of cluster residents are classified visible minorities: 6 percent black, 6<br />
percent South Asian and the rest a mix of Chinese and other nationalities. Despite many having university and college<br />
educations, these newcomers mostly work in service sector jobs, earn average incomes and have low‐key lifestyles. They<br />
have high rates for playing soccer, jogging, swimming and skateboarding. And a big date is taking the kids to a carnival,<br />
video arcade or music festival. They rarely go shopping unless it’s to an outlet mall, but they do manage to acquire the<br />
latest technology, including computers and MP3 players. Admitting that they rarely go to boutiques, gourmet<br />
supermarkets or fancy restaurants, the parents of these growing families say that they don’t need a lot of money to enjoy<br />
life.<br />
Nearly Empty Nests Older suburban couples and families<br />
Nearly Empty Nests is a haven for married couples over 55 years old whose older children either still live at home or have<br />
already flown the coop. Concentrated in several dozen towns, small cities and second‐tier metros of English Canada, these<br />
residents on the cusp of retirement have achieved midscale incomes from years of working at white‐collar and service<br />
sector jobs. With discretionary income from their emptying households, they engage in a wide range of leisure pursuits.<br />
They have high rates for going to casinos, dinner theatres and film festivals, and it’s difficult to find a show they don’t<br />
frequent—whether for boats, pets or travel. For exercise, they enjoy golf, curling, gardening and aerobics. They have<br />
enough money to travel the world, but they make sure their investments are sufficiently funded for the future. Many are<br />
price‐sensitive consumers with a fondness for second‐hand stores, loyalty programs and warehouse clubs.<br />
Top Five PRIZM Clusters
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
PrizmC2 Clusters<br />
For further analysis we have analyzed both senior and influence clusters in the PMA. <strong>Senior</strong> clusters are those<br />
clusters that have above average number of seniors 75 years of age and older. Influencer clusters are clusters<br />
which have an above average percentage of persons 45 to 64 years old.<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s clusters comprise 10.3% of the total market area population and influencer clusters represent 25.6% of<br />
the total market area population. We therefore classify the market as an influencers market.<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s Clusters<br />
Following are the clusters considered to be seniors and the percentage of the population in those categories.<br />
Top Three PRIZMC2 <strong>Senior</strong> Clusters % of Total<br />
Nearly Empty Nests 7.4%<br />
Grey Pride 2.7%<br />
Simple Pleasures 0.2%<br />
Total % 10.3%<br />
Residents of Nearly Empty Nests are Reprioritizing Work as they head toward retirement, and these older<br />
Canadians feel little Financial Concern Regarding the Future. They are reflecting more and more on the Legacy they<br />
will leave behind for their heirs. Making an Effort for Health, they try to keep themselves fit by eating well and<br />
getting plenty of exercise. At the same time, Canadian Identity is important for Nearly Empty Nests residents—<br />
but national pride does not carry racial baggage for these folks. They are comfortable with ethno‐cultural mixing,<br />
scoring high on Cultural Fusion and Social Learning. Perhaps feeling more vulnerable as they age, residents of<br />
Nearly Empty Nests are sensitive to crime and aggression in society, scoring high on Fear of Violence. But as they<br />
adjust to newly childless lives, they are keeping up their Community Involvement.<br />
Having gained perspective since entering retirement, Grey Pride residents want to interact with their world as<br />
they contemplate their Legacy. These Canadians, who are proud not only of their age but also their Canadian<br />
Identity, like exploring the diversity around them (Cultural Fusion) and learning from people different from<br />
themselves (Social Learning). They think Ethnic Intolerance at any age is unacceptable. They are also concerned<br />
about their generation’s ecological legacy, registering high Global Ecological Awareness and pursuing Ethical<br />
Consumerism whenever possible. While they may be adventurous socially, they are cautious in their financial<br />
outlook; they score above average on Financial Concern Regarding the Future, wondering whether their retirement<br />
savings will hold out. However, they believe that poverty and inequality are inevitable in society (Social<br />
Darwinism), and with a low sense of New Social Responsibility, few make meaningful efforts to help those in need.<br />
Members of Grey Pride have a low Need for Status Recognition, caring little for the approval of others. However,<br />
when shopping, these consumers prefer pleasing styles and designs (Importance of Aesthetics) and brands that<br />
have stood the test of time (Brand Genuineness).<br />
47
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Simple Pleasures residents are conservative, involved members of communities concentrated in small,<br />
homogeneous towns and cities. They feel a strong sense of Regional Identity as well as patriotism (Canadian<br />
Identity), but this identification does not extend any further: Simple Pleasures residents say they do not feel a<br />
sense of Belonging to the Global Village. The small communities in which they live provide a refuge from what they<br />
see as the social ills afflicting society in general and big cities in particular. Weak on Flexible Definition of Family<br />
and Sexual Permissiveness, these Canadians are alarmed by the erosion of the nuclear family‐based social and<br />
moral world in which they were raised. Strong on Religiosity, Simple Pleasures residents find meaning and order<br />
through traditional channels. Many feel powerless to influence the direction of their lives (high Fatalism). Their<br />
Technological Anxiety hints further at their sense of being out of step with progressive society. And as consumers,<br />
their low Need for Status Recognition means that they focus on getting the best value from their purchases while<br />
avoiding things they don’t really need (Discriminating Consumerism).
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Influencer Clusters<br />
Following are the clusters considered to be influencers and the percentage of the population in those categories.<br />
Top Three PRIZMC2 Influencer Clusters % of Total<br />
Suburban Gentry 10.0%<br />
Mr. & Ms. Manager 8.8%<br />
Urbane Villagers 6.7%<br />
TOTAL 25.6%<br />
Suburban Gentry residents have achieved affluence through diligent effort, but their low score on the value<br />
Fulfillment Through Work suggests that these Canadians view work as a job, not a passion. Even though this<br />
segment features above‐average levels of small business ownership, Suburban Gentry residents have low<br />
Confidence in Small Business and high Confidence in Big Business—perhaps indicating a hope that their small<br />
operations will make it big one day. These Canadians believe it is up to them to build their own futures (Control of<br />
Destiny), and their concern for the Legacy they will leave behind also spurs them to succeed. Suburban Gentry<br />
residents harbour few prejudices about characteristics like race, age and gender: they score high on Cultural<br />
Fusion, Equal Relationship with Youth and Equality of the Sexes. This cluster also has a green streak, with high<br />
scores on Global Ecological Awareness. Although these consumers are careful in how they spend their money<br />
(Discriminating Consumerism), they enjoy products with distinctive design (Importance of Aesthetics).<br />
Mr. & Ms. Manager is a cluster of people who are financially comfortable and down‐to‐earth. Weak on Need for<br />
Status Recognition, these Canadians are not desperate to show others that they’ve made it. They are also weak on<br />
Concern for Appearance, suggesting they are not overly preoccupied with how they look. Yet their strong<br />
Importance of Aesthetics shows that they appreciate distinctive design in the areas that matter to them most<br />
(Consumptivity). With high scores on Primacy of the Family, these Canadians would rather be home with their kids<br />
than shopping for glitzy goods. Strong on Meaning of Life and Religiosity, this cluster seeks spiritual satisfaction<br />
through relatively traditional channels but is not entirely traditional in its outlook. Since many households in this<br />
segment contain two working parents, it is not surprising that Mr. & Ms. Manager residents are strong on Equality<br />
of the Sexes: at home, it’s all hands on deck (with men doing as much tidying and taxi duty as women), and at<br />
work, both partners have a stake in Ms. Manager earning appropriate compensation. Clearly, this cluster’s<br />
pragmatism extends from their clothes and spending habits to their attitudes on social issues.<br />
Members of Urbane Villagers are at ease in the world. Scoring high on Adaptability to Complexity and Adaptive<br />
Navigation, these Canadians are not afraid of change: they relish it. They are open to—not threatened by—the<br />
world beyond Canada, registering high scores on Belonging to the Global Village. They also score high on the value<br />
Cultural Fusion, suggesting that they see the mixing of people from different backgrounds as enriching, not<br />
damaging. Consistent with their openness to change, Urbane Villagers residents do not feel bound by their own<br />
past or background. They are unenthusiastic about exploring the history of their family or ethnic group (scoring<br />
low on Search for Roots) and feel no great sense of identification with the region where they live. Rather than<br />
being defined by their family heritage, Urbane Villagers, with high scores on Control of Destiny, feel that they as<br />
individuals determine their fate. Despite their affluence, Urbane Villagers households are prudent with their<br />
money, scoring above average on Saving on Principle (a value which is borne out in their high savings rates). For<br />
Urbane Villagers residents, the ability to embrace change rests on a foundation of financial security.<br />
49
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Long Term Care<br />
MARKET SUPPLY ANALYSIS<br />
There are two [2] Long Term Care [LTC] properties with a total of 305 beds in the PMA. The population 75+ is<br />
currently estimated at 10,968 which equates to a beds/population ratio of 28 beds/1,000 persons. As reference,<br />
government health departments across Canada typically aim to provide a LTC ratio of 100 beds/1,000 seniors 75+.<br />
Existing Retirement Homes<br />
Long Term Care<br />
Property Name Beds<br />
Beverly Centre ‐ Glenmore 212<br />
Mount Royal Care Centre 93<br />
Total 305<br />
There are currently seven (7) retirement residences with a total of 1,063 units in the PMA. The market capture rate<br />
represents the percentage of seniors in the PMA that are currently residing in a retirement residence. Given<br />
current occupancy levels and second occupants in the market, it is estimated that 9.2% of the seniors’ population<br />
over 75 years are currently captured in the existing supply. The PMA capture rate is above the Province of Alberta<br />
capture rate.<br />
Proposed <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing Properties<br />
Retirement Residences<br />
Property Name Units<br />
Manor Village at Garrison Woods 136<br />
Trinity Lodge Retirement Community 214<br />
Chateau Renoir 150<br />
Fountains of Mission 96<br />
StayWell Manor Village at Garrison Woods 170<br />
Lake Bonavista Village 197<br />
Roulea Manor 100<br />
Total 1,063<br />
Our analysis of new seniors’ housing developments in the PMA is separated into two categories, proposed and<br />
potential developments. We define proposed projects as those projects where a site plan has been submitted.<br />
Potential projects are those that are going through subdivision or zoning and yet to have zoning approval or a site<br />
plan submitted. We include proposed projects in our analysis as these projects should come to fruition. Potential<br />
developments are not included in our demand analysis as these developments are still in the initial stage and have<br />
no finalized plans.<br />
Within the PMA, we are not aware of any proposed or potential retirement residence developments.<br />
51
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Retirement Residences in the PMA<br />
The following tables summarize and evaluate retirement residence supply in the PMA. Factors of evaluation<br />
include location, rental rates, service offering, physical plant, unit mix and reputation. This evaluation leads to a<br />
market weighting which represents the competitors’ relative strength or “competitiveness” in the market.<br />
Existing Supply in PMA<br />
Studio One Bedroom<br />
Two Bedroom<br />
Residence Monthly Rent Unit Size Monthly Rent Unit Size Monthly Rent Unit Size<br />
Manor Village at Garrison Woods ‐ ‐ $3,175 816‐864 $4,195 ‐ $4,595 1030‐1279<br />
Trinity Lodge Retirement Community $2,075 ‐ $3,265 265‐560 $2,965 ‐ $3,750 520‐650 ‐ ‐<br />
Chateau Renoir $2,495 ‐ $3,425 353‐484 $3,150 ‐ $4,905 527‐651 $3,825 ‐ $5,610 745‐1054<br />
Fountains of Mission $2,029 ‐ $2,933 457‐497 $3,215 ‐ $4,037 664‐710 $4,145 808<br />
StayWell Manor Village at Garrison Woods ‐ ‐ $3,560 587 $4,595 ‐ $6,255 977<br />
Lake Bonavista Village $2,650 335‐565 $3,190 ‐ $3,700 498‐751 $4,469 ‐ $5,100 634‐1164
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
As anticipated, existing supply in the PMA would not be competitive with Milliken’s proposed AL/ALZ<br />
development. They are all independent service living [ISL] platforms, some with AL services and “light” ALZ care.<br />
For the most part, AL is provided through homecare which is supplied by an approved provider in the home. The<br />
other source of care is through Designated Assisted <strong>Living</strong> [DAL] and Extended DAL [EDAL]. Based on our<br />
research of the Calgary market, the subject property will be the first of its kind.<br />
The only other provider of a freestanding, high end AL/ALZ model in Canada is Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong>. They<br />
operate 9 mansions in Ontario [8 in the GTA], 3 in BC and 3 in Quebec. Of noted significance, prior to taking their<br />
Canadian REIT private in 2006, Sunrise was actively pursuing sites in Calgary to develop a mansion style AL/ALZ<br />
residence. The properties are now owned by Ventas REIT [US based] who is not a developer of homes.<br />
Competitive Models<br />
For the purpose of analysis, we have reviewed and analysed rental rates at two Sunrise residences, one in Ontario<br />
and the other in BC. It is our understanding from the Executive Directors that pricing varies somewhat by location<br />
within those provincial markets but is generally representative of their overall pricing structure. Notwithstanding,<br />
the price points in BC are generally higher, particularly on the ALZ floor.<br />
The following table summarizes the base rental rates [before additional care levels].<br />
Studio<br />
Assisted <strong>Living</strong> [AL]<br />
Denver/Seymour Two Room<br />
Private Shared Private Shared Private<br />
Thorne Mill $4,867 $3,772 $6,175 $4,198 $6,692<br />
Vaughan, ON<br />
Lynn Valley<br />
North Van, BC<br />
$5,232 $3,833 $6,266 $4,258 $6,692<br />
Memory Care [ALZ]<br />
Studio<br />
Denver/Seymour Two Room<br />
Private Shared Private Shared Private<br />
Thorne Mill $6,053 $4,593 $6,874 $5,323 $7,330<br />
Vaughan, ON<br />
Lynn Valley $6,935 $4,684 $7,330 $5,790 $7,950<br />
North Van, BC<br />
As noted above, these rates represent the base package without additional care. The base fee in ALZ is higher<br />
because it includes medication management fees, about 30 minutes of care per day and additional personalized<br />
programming support. For each additional hour of care, the fee is $30 per day in Ontario and $34 per day in BC,<br />
equating to between approximately $900 and $1,000 per month. The amount of additional care provided is not<br />
limited, although there are limits to the type of end care required.<br />
53
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
In addition to our rent review, discussion was held with the former operations manager for Sunrise and Executive<br />
Directors at several Sunrise residences in Ontario and BC. It is evident from our conversations that the demand for<br />
high end AL and ALZ accommodations is strong and is supported by the high occupancy levels at the established<br />
Sunrise homes. Of note, both of the buildings surveyed for this report are fully occupied. Moreover, the North<br />
Vancouver home has a long waiting list while the Vaughan building leased up in only 3 years [241 suites].<br />
In addition to Sunrise, we have research AL rates at two other upscale retirement residences in high end<br />
neighbourhoods in BC. While permit [and have] residents with onset dementia, they are not staffed or equipped<br />
for later stages. Notwithstanding, the rental rates are indicative of this quality of private pay accommodation.<br />
Based on our investigations and analysis of similar quality AL and AL/ALZ properties in major markets across<br />
Canada, it is our opinion that the average rates proposed by the developer are reasonable and achievable in this<br />
location, assuming the quality of construction and service offering are comparable to these competitors.<br />
Staffing<br />
Assisted <strong>Living</strong><br />
Studio One Bedroom<br />
Year Built Size Rent Size Rent<br />
Amica 2006 375 ‐ 470 $4900 ‐ $5000 525 ‐ 695 $6,200<br />
West Van, BC<br />
Hollyburn House<br />
West Van, BC<br />
1986 260 ‐ 405 $4,500 ‐ $6,000 n/a n/a<br />
In addition to the rental rate analysis, we have been provided with the developers initial estimates of FTE’s [Full<br />
Time Equivalents] for the various departments and asked to verify the assumptions. As already noted, the<br />
freestanding, private pay AL/ALZ model is not common in the Canadian market so industry benchmarks don’t<br />
exist. Accordingly, we have relied on data from a US publication called 2009 Overview of Assisted <strong>Living</strong> which<br />
was a collaborative research project by several national industry related associations.<br />
The following chart summarizes the total mean and median number of FTEs for AL properties in the US. The<br />
figures do not distinguish between AL and AL/ALZ care. However, both types are included.<br />
FTE by Property Type<br />
2009 Overview of Assisted <strong>Living</strong><br />
Type Mean Median<br />
IL / AL 22.9 18.5<br />
AL / ALZ 21.5 19.0<br />
AL / ALZ 41.4 38.5
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
The follow chart breaks down the FTEs by department.<br />
Although the residential care department is not broken down in the US stats and some categories differ, it is quite<br />
evident that the developer’s totals are generally consistent with industry averages.<br />
Operating Margins<br />
2009 Overview of SL<br />
Department Milliken Mean Median<br />
Administrative 4.00 3.20 3.00<br />
Dietary 4.60 7.20 4.50<br />
Housekeeping 2.25 2.80 2.00<br />
Activities 2.00 2.10 1.50<br />
Maintenance 1.00 1.30 1.00<br />
Marketing<br />
Professional Staff<br />
2.40 1.30 1.00<br />
RN 1.00 1.40 1.00<br />
LPN 3.30 2.60 2.00<br />
Therapists 2.00 2.00<br />
Social Worker<br />
Resident Care<br />
0.80 1.00<br />
AL Coordinator 1.00<br />
ALZ Coordinator 1.00<br />
Care Manager AL 7.90<br />
Care Manager ALZ 11.30 22.80 20.00<br />
Other 1.40 1.00<br />
41.75 41.40 38.50<br />
With respect to overall operating margins, we again turn to statistics readily available in the US regarding AL and<br />
ALZ properties. The 2010 State of <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing publishes operating margins for combined AL/ALZ properties<br />
and breaks it down by number of size [number of units] and age.<br />
Expense Ratios<br />
State of <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing 2010<br />
Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile<br />
> 40 beds 68.3% 67.3% 61.5%<br />
2 < 10 years 69.2% 67.8% 61.8%<br />
The reader is advised that ratios will vary depending upon size, service provision and level of acuity.<br />
Notwithstanding, the indicated benchmark ratios for size and age are consistent, with the median at<br />
approximately 67.5%. In our experience, the lower ratios are typical of newer and larger buildings similar to the<br />
Milliken proposal. Of noted significance, the optimal size for a standalone AL/ALZ residence today is generally<br />
between 80 and 100 beds.<br />
55
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Again, in reference to the Canadian context, we can look to the Sunrise model for guidance. In our experience<br />
appraising their Canadian assets over the years, we have consistently found that overall expense ratios range<br />
between approximately 60% and 65% at stabilized occupancy. This benchmark range was confirmed in recent<br />
discussions with Sunrise senior management.<br />
“Weighting” the PMA Supply<br />
In order to determine competitive supply in a given market, it is necessary to identify to what degree these<br />
properties would compete with a new state‐of‐the‐art development (comparable to an upscale Miliken<br />
Development offering) in the PMA. To that end, we apply the supply weighting method which is largely based on<br />
proximity, quality and, most importantly, pricing structure.<br />
Based on our research and analysis, there is no existing supply in the PMA that would compete with the subject<br />
service offering at the upper end price point.<br />
The following chart summarizes our analysis of the supply.<br />
Existing Supply Year Built Units Weighting Net Units<br />
Manor Village at Garrison Woods 2002 136 0% 0<br />
Trinity Lodge Retirement Community 1974 214 0% 0<br />
Chateau Renoir 1988 150 0% 0<br />
Fountains of Mission 2002 96 0% 0<br />
StayWell Manor Village at Garrison Woods 2004 170 0% 0<br />
Lake Bonavista Village 2001 197 0% 0<br />
Total 963 0% 0<br />
Proposed Supply<br />
Subject Property 73 100% 73<br />
Total weighted units 73<br />
Demand Analysis<br />
Our demand analysis begins with the seniors’ population 75+ in the PMA. The average age of retirement residents<br />
in the Canadian market is in the mid 80’s, however there are still a number of residents who are in their 70’s and to<br />
sometimes even younger. Given the more independent nature of the proposed development we have included<br />
the population 75 years of age and older. From the initial seniors’ population we use a number of market qualifiers<br />
to eliminate certain portions of the population. These qualifiers are: long term care, family type, need and income.<br />
Assumptions used in the demand analysis include:<br />
� 10% of the seniors’ population 75+ in LTC<br />
� 20% demand from seniors’ couples<br />
� Income qualification based on incomes > $84,000 per annum<br />
� Minimum dwelling value in the market area of $750,000<br />
In the PMA the current seniors’ population 75+ is estimated to be 10,968 persons.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Impact of Long Term Care<br />
The need for long‐term care beds has been observed in major markets across Canada and the US at<br />
approximately 100 beds per thousand seniors (75 years old or older). Therefore, we have subtracted 10% of the<br />
seniors’ population (75+) from the total seniors’ population to capture those who would reside or be eligible for<br />
funded long term care, resulting in a seniors’ population of 9,871.<br />
Qualification by Family Type<br />
Based on our research and findings for retirement homes across North America, it is our opinion that the market<br />
for couples in retirement homes is limited. Generally, the percentage of couples is higher for the more<br />
independent projects and considerably lower for assisted living homes. In view of the type of accommodation<br />
provided by the subject facility, we have included 20% of couple families and 100% of singles or non‐family<br />
persons as follows:<br />
Family Types<br />
Couples and Others Singles<br />
75 ‐ 84 years 4,307 60% 2,865 40%<br />
85+ years 934 35% 1,765 65%<br />
Subtotal 5,242 persons 4,630<br />
Demand Rate for Retirement Units 20% 100%<br />
Subtotal Demand 75 ‐ 84 years<br />
3,296<br />
Subtotal Demand 85+ years<br />
1,858<br />
Total Demand by Family Type<br />
5,154<br />
Accordingly, there are 5,154 seniors who are family type qualified.<br />
Qualification by Income<br />
We have based our income qualification on incomes of greater than $84,000 per annum, reflecting an average<br />
room rate charge of $7,000 per month. Although the average rent per unit will be less, the intention is to capture<br />
residents that make up the very upper end of the AL market.<br />
A study completed in 1999 by the Assisted <strong>Living</strong> Federation of America [ALFA] indicated that seniors typically<br />
spend up to 75% of their income on rent at a retirement residence. Furthermore, a study called “National Survey of<br />
Assisted <strong>Living</strong> Residents: Who is the Customer?” indicated that 64% of residents will actually spend 100% or more<br />
of their income. Logically, this suggests that they are either eroding their capital base or are receiving assistance<br />
from a family member. Based on these studies, we have bracketed our fee to income ratio at 90%. The 90% ratio<br />
contends that 35% of seniors are spending 75% of there income on retirement rent and 65% are spending 100% of<br />
income on rent.<br />
Assuming fee to income ratios of 90%, the annual income required to reside in the subject property increases to<br />
$93,333 per annum.<br />
57
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
It is acknowledged that approximately 75% of seniors are home‐owners and are typically mortgage‐free. Based on<br />
an analysis of recent statistics from the Calgary Real Estate Board, we have estimated that the minimum value of<br />
a dwelling in the PMA for this clientele is $750,000. Assuming this minimum amount is converted to cash and<br />
invested at an overall annual return 5.0%, it would yield additional income of $37,500 per annum. Alternatively,<br />
we assume that most seniors have other assets such as stock and/or bonds that could be converted to interest‐<br />
bearing assets. It is also important to note that there is no reliable data on the actual wealth of seniors in any given<br />
area. Hence the value of their home is generally accepted as a proxy of their wealth.<br />
Accounting for the proceeds from the sale of their house, the net income required is reduced to $55,833. A<br />
summary of the income qualification calculations is as follows:<br />
There are 771 seniors who are family type and income qualified.<br />
Qualification by Need<br />
Monthly Fee $7,000<br />
Annual Fee $84,000<br />
Fee to Income Ratio 90%<br />
Required Annual Income $93,333<br />
Average House Value $750,000<br />
Interest Income on Investments [sale of home] $37,500<br />
Net Income Required $55,833<br />
% of <strong>Senior</strong>s with qualifying income 75+ 15.0%<br />
Subtotal Demand 75 ‐ 84 years 493<br />
Subtotal Demand 85+ years 278<br />
Income Qualified Demand 771<br />
In order to estimate the market demand for the subject property, we have relied on US data from the National<br />
Long Term Care Survey [2004/2005] prepared by the National Institute on Aging [NIA] in conjunction with Duke<br />
University’s Center for Demographic Studies, the US Bureau of the Census, the Department of Health and Human<br />
Services [Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation] and the Research Triangle Institute [RTI].<br />
This study represents research from 1982 to 2004/2005 and estimates the demand for instrumental activities of<br />
daily living [IADL including cooking and cleaning] and activities of daily living [ADL including bathing, grooming,<br />
dressing, etc] for retirement and assisted living communities.<br />
Although Canadian frailty data for seniors exists, we have elected to utilize the American data because it has been<br />
extensively researched and reflects the seniors who currently reside in independent and assisted living facilities in<br />
the US and incorporates their IADLs and ADLs limitations. While the Canadian data generally indicates that<br />
seniors with frailties range from 20% to 45% of the 75+ year old population, the US data distinguishes between<br />
the 65 to 74, 75 to 84 year olds and 85+ year olds and applies different rates of need to each age cohort. As the<br />
average age of a typical retirement resident is in excess of 80 years, this separation of need ratios by age is critical<br />
and without which the estimated market demand may be dramatically overstated.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
For an AL/ALZ model, research determined the demand to be approximately 25% for the 75 to 84 year age cohort<br />
and 50% for the 85 years old and older cohort. The qualification by need may be summarized as follows:<br />
Based on our modelling, the potential market demand for an AL/ALZ retirement residence is 262 units,<br />
representing 2.4% of the seniors’ population over 75 years of age.<br />
New Supply by Price Range<br />
Of noted significance, the proposal calls for average rents of $5,000 per month for AL and $7,000 per month for<br />
ALZ. We have based our analysis on the upper rent range for certainty since affordability is a key factor in the<br />
analysis and worth erring on the high side. Nevertheless, the following table captures family type, income and<br />
need qualified demand at price points starting at $5,000 per month.<br />
Based on an analysis of incomes at various price ranges, it appears that support is fairly evenly spread along the<br />
rental range. More importantly, it clearly demonstrates that affordability will not be a factor in the upper price<br />
ranges [above $7,000 per month].<br />
Demand Coverage Ratio<br />
Cohort % of Pop Demand<br />
75 ‐ 84 years 25.0% 123<br />
85+ years 50.0% 139<br />
Total Demand by Need 262<br />
Total Demand Percentage<br />
Rental Range Demand in Range of Total<br />
$5,000 ‐ $6,000 791 309 39%<br />
$6,001 ‐ $7,000 482 220 28%<br />
$7,001 + 262 262 33%<br />
Totals 791 100%<br />
The Demand Coverage Ratio [DCR] is an important indicator in determining whether or not a market exists<br />
because it measures the relationship between demand and supply in the PMA. It is calculated by dividing qualified<br />
demand by net supply. Net supply considers the number of market weighted units as well as the percentage of<br />
the residences that will be captured from within the PMA. This accounts for residents that move into the<br />
retirement homes from outside the area. In our experience, and based on the ALFA studies in the USA, retirement<br />
homes are expected to capture between 50% and 75% of their residents from the defined PMA. The remaining<br />
30% to 50% relocate from areas outside the PMA. Often these seniors are relocating to be close to adult children<br />
and/or their families (influencers).<br />
In our opinion and experience, the capture rate for a high end AL/ALZ residence would be at the upper range,<br />
meaning 75% of the residents will come from the defined PMA.<br />
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4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
For a market to be in equilibrium, it should have a DCR of at least 2.0 for an AL/ALZ offering. Stated another way,<br />
there must be at least two income/need qualified seniors 75+ in a PMA for every retirement home suite to be in<br />
equilibrium. Therefore, a development opportunity exists where the DCR remains above 2.0 after the inclusion of<br />
the proposed property into the DCR equation. In our experience, this 2:1 ratio is a reliable guideline in the vast<br />
majority of cases, although not without exceptions.<br />
Supply & Demand<br />
The PMA contains a total of 963 retirement units in six (6) private pay residences and currently captures<br />
approximately 8.8% of the seniors’ population. Based on our analysis of the existing supply, we estimate that<br />
none of these units would be competitive to the proposed residence by Milliken Developments.<br />
To estimate market demand, our model measured family types, income levels and frailty in the seniors’<br />
population. Based on our modelling and analysis, it is our opinion that the potential demand in the PMA for the<br />
subject property is for approximately 262 units.<br />
DCR Conclusion<br />
The demand coverage ratio measures the relationship between market demand and competitive supply in the<br />
PMA. We contend that a market is in equilibrium [market demand = competitive supply] when the DCR is<br />
approximately 2.0. In other words, a market is considered in equilibrium when there are two [age/income/need]<br />
qualified seniors for every one unit of supply.<br />
As determined in our rental analysis, there is no “competitive supply” in the PMA at the targeted price point<br />
[$7,000 per month] or service platform. Therefore, total supply in the PMA will be the proposed 73 units. As noted<br />
earlier, our model presumes that only 75% of the total demand originates from the PMA. Therefore, the net<br />
supply in the PMA is 55 units (73x 750%).<br />
Therefore, with the proposed subject units, the DCR would equate to 4.8 indicating that the market could absorb<br />
the new supply. Based on our population forecast (Environics Analytics), the DCR will rise to 5.2 by 2015 barring<br />
another change to the supply.<br />
Conclusions<br />
Year 2010 2013 2015<br />
<strong>Senior</strong>s (75+) Population 10,968 11,205 11,370<br />
Qualified Demand 262 276 285<br />
Net Supply in PMA 55 55 55<br />
Demand Coverage Ratio 4.8 5.0 5.2<br />
Based on investigations and analysis carried out, we concluded that the proposed freestanding, high end,<br />
boutique‐style seniors’ residence with an AL and ALZ service platform is feasible at the proposed location in<br />
southwest Calgary. Our feasibility analysis confirmed that the rental rates are sustainable and reasonable in<br />
comparison with other similar operations in the country.
4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
We, the undersigned appraisers, hereby certify that:<br />
CERTIFICATION<br />
1. To the best of our knowledge and belief, statements of fact contained in this report, the analysis,<br />
opinions and conclusions expressed herein are true and correct.<br />
2. The analysis, opinions and conclusions presented are limited by the general and specific assumptions and<br />
limiting conditions contained in this report.<br />
3. We have no past, present or contemplated interest in the issue that is the subject of this report, nor<br />
personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.<br />
4. Compensation was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined results from the<br />
analyses, opinions, or conclusions in this report.<br />
5. My analyses, opinions, and conclusion have been made in accordance with the requirements of the<br />
Canadian Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice of the Appraisal Institute of Canada.<br />
6. We have the knowledge and experience to compete the assignment competently.<br />
7. The use of this report is subject to the requirements of the Appraisal Institute of Canada relating to<br />
review by their duly authorized representatives.<br />
8. Stephen Hiscox and Milan Pejcic prepared the descriptive data sections of this report. No other person<br />
provided professional assistance with this report.<br />
9. As of the date of this report, the author has completed the requirements of the Continuing Professional<br />
Development program of the Appraisal Institute.<br />
Stephen Hiscox, AACI, P.App<br />
<strong>Senior</strong> Director<br />
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4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />
Milliken Developments<br />
October 28, 2010<br />
Employment<br />
QUALIFICATIONS<br />
STEPHEN E. HISCOX, AACI, PApp<br />
1985 ‐ 1992 ReMax Central Realty Inc. ‐ Appraisal Division ‐ Appraiser<br />
1992 ‐ 1996 Howard Hiscox & Associates Inc. ‐ Appraiser<br />
1996 Accredited Appraiser Canadian Institute (AACI)<br />
1996 ‐ 2004 Howard Hiscox & Associates Inc. ‐ <strong>Senior</strong> Appraiser<br />
2004 – 2006 HealthTrust Canada ULC – <strong>Senior</strong> Partner<br />
2006 ‐ 2008 TD Securities – VP and Director<br />
2008 ‐ Present <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd – <strong>Senior</strong> Director<br />
Since joining the Appraisal Institute in 1985, Mr. Hiscox has prepared appraisals on a full range of residential and<br />
commercial properties including single family dwellings, condominiums, rental apartment buildings, mixed‐use<br />
buildings, office buildings, retail structures and golf courses. These appraisals have been prepared purchase and<br />
sale, mortgage financing, litigation, estate settlement lease arbitration and other functions. After completing all<br />
the education requirements for accreditation with the Appraisal Institute, together with 10 years practical<br />
experience in appraising real estate, Mr. Hiscox obtained his AACI designation in May of 1996.<br />
The focus of his work since 1997 years has been senior housing and health care facilities. The specialized service<br />
niche was created to satisfy the ever‐increasing demand for reliable and well‐documented seniors’ housing<br />
appraisals. To date he has directly or indirectly participated in the appraisal of approximately 600 retirement and<br />
nursing home facilities. Assignments have been completed in most provinces in Canada, including British<br />
Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.<br />
In 2006, Stephen joined TD Securities to help develop the seniors housing brokerage with John O’Bryan. During<br />
his two years with TD, Stephen participated in the sale of over $2 billion of seniors housing assets giving him an<br />
insight into transactions from both purchasers and vendors perspectives. Stephen has recently returned to the<br />
consulting business, joining <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd, in October 2008.<br />
He has given several presentations on the <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing industry to major Canadian banks and Canada<br />
Mortgage and Housing and conducted seminars for the Ontario Residential Care Association (ORCA) and Ontario<br />
Chapter of the Appraisal Institute of Canada.<br />
Corporate/Institutional Clients Served [Partial List]<br />
Revera Chartwell <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing REIT Maestro<br />
TD Bank CIBC BMO<br />
Royal Bank HSBC Scotia Capital<br />
Amica Mature Lifestyles Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong> All <strong>Senior</strong>s Care<br />
Leisureworld Holiday Retirement Corporation Ontario Teachers Pension Plan<br />
Retirement Life Communities Origin Retirement Communities Baybridge <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing<br />
Specialty Care Kingsway Arms Management CMHC<br />
BMO Reichmann <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing Devco DCMS Realty Group<br />
Carlisle Capital Structures Diversicare Management Extendicare REIT