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Altus Feasibility Study (pdf) - Maison Senior Living

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CALGARY, ALBERTA<br />

A PROPOSED SENIORS HOUSING PROPERTY<br />

MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY<br />

File No. NYKV959184<br />

Effective October 15, 2010<br />

Prepared for Milliken Developments<br />

Prepared by <strong>Altus</strong> Group


Independent Real Estate Intelligence<br />

File No. NYKV959184<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

234 19 th Street West<br />

North Vancouver, BC<br />

V7M 1X5<br />

Attention: Ms. Kate Milliken Binns<br />

RE: MARKET FEASIBILITY STUDY ON A PROPOSED ASSISTED LIVING [AL] & MEMORY CARE [ALZ] RETIREMENT<br />

RESIDENCE AT 4904 – 4920 ELBOW DRIVE SW, CALGARY, ALBERTA<br />

Dear Ms. Milliken Binns:<br />

We have completed an investigation and analysis pursuant to your request for a market feasibility involving the<br />

above noted proposed seniors’ housing property and herein submit our findings. The purpose of this study is to<br />

validate demand and to verify the developer’s rental rate and staffing assumptions for a freestanding luxury,<br />

boutique style retirement residence providing assisted living [“AL”] and memory care [“ALZ”] in southwest<br />

Calgary. The intended use is for internal planning and decision making and no other use. This study is subject to<br />

the terms of reference, extraordinary assumptions and extraordinary limiting conditions described herein.<br />

The following report provides details of the subject property and summarizes the information gathered in our<br />

investigations, techniques employed and reasoning leading to the conclusion. The analysis, opinions, and<br />

conclusions were developed based on, and in conformity with, our interpretation of the guidelines and<br />

recommendations set forth in the Canadian Uniform Standards of Appraisal Practice [“The Standards”]. The<br />

report is subject to the terms of reference and assumptions and limiting conditions herein. The accompanying<br />

report of 62 pages contains the results of our investigations.<br />

The report is for the sole use of our client, Milliken Developments. However, the client may provide only<br />

complete, final copies of the market feasibility report in its entirety [but not component parts] to third parties who<br />

shall review such reports in connection with loan underwriting or securitization efforts. <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd. is not<br />

required to explain or testify as to the results other than to respond to the client for routine and customary<br />

questions. Please note that our consent to allow a report prepared by <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd. or portions of such report,<br />

to become part of or be referenced in any public offering will be at our sole discretion and, if given, will be on<br />

condition that we will be provided with an indemnification and/or non‐reliance letter, in a form and content<br />

satisfactory to us, by a party satisfactory to us. We do consent to your submission of the reports to rating<br />

agencies, loan participants or your auditors in its entirety (but not component parts) without the need to provide<br />

us with an indemnification agreement and/or non‐reliance letter.<br />

Research, Valuation & Advisory Cost Consulting Realty Tax Consulting | Geomatics | Environmental & Forestry Services<br />

200 University Avenue, 7 th Floor, Toronto, ON M5H 3C6 Canada T 416.221.1200 F 416.221.1416<br />

www.altusgroup.com


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

We hereby certify that we have no present or contemplated interest in the herein described property of any kind<br />

whatsoever. If you require any further information on this matter, please do not hesitate to contact the<br />

undersigned.<br />

Respectfully submitted,<br />

<strong>Altus</strong> Group Limited


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

4<br />

TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................1<br />

BACKGROUND.......................................................................................................................................... 1<br />

PRIMARY MARKET AREA [PMA] .................................................................................................................... 1<br />

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ............................................................................................................................. 2<br />

SUPPLY & DEMAND .................................................................................................................................. 2<br />

DEMAND COVERAGE RATIO [DCR]................................................................................................................. 2<br />

OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 2<br />

INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 3<br />

SCOPE OF INVESTIGATIONS ......................................................................................................................... 3<br />

ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITING CONDITIONS......................................................................................................... 4<br />

EXTRAORDINARY ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................................. 4<br />

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................5<br />

SENIORS MARKET EVOLUTION & HISTORIC OVERVIEW......................................................................................11<br />

REGIONAL & CITY DESCRIPTION ..................................................................................................................21<br />

MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE........................................................................................................ 28<br />

MARKET SUPPLY ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................51<br />

DEMAND ANALYSIS................................................................................................................................. 56<br />

DEMAND COVERAGE RATIO....................................................................................................................... 59<br />

CERTIFICATION....................................................................................................................................... 61<br />

QUALIFICATIONS .................................................................................................................................... 62


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Background<br />

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />

We researched the retirement home market in Calgary to determine if the freestanding mixed AL/ALZ concept is<br />

feasible and whether the operator’s proposed average rents and staffing ratios are reasonable and achievable.<br />

In order to test demand, we prepared a market feasibility based on our model which takes into consideration<br />

family types, income and need.<br />

Outside of the government funded care model, ALZ is uncommon in the private pay market and does not exist in<br />

the high end format in Calgary as proposed by Milliken. Moreover, the only comparable model in the country is<br />

operated by Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong>, a US based developer of mansion style residences in Ontario, BC and Quebec.<br />

Primary Market Area [PMA]<br />

The PMA encompasses the south‐westerly portion of the City of Calgary, south of the 17 th Avenue, east of<br />

Crowchild Trail/37 th Street SW, north of Fish Creek/Canyon Meadows Drive SE, and west of Queen Elizabeth<br />

Highway/Blackfoot Trail/McLeod Trail.<br />

The subject property is located in the northerly portion of the PMA on the boundary between two<br />

neighbourhoods; Elboya to the east and Britannia to the west. It is an established inner city community located<br />

approximately 3 kilometres from downtown Calgary.<br />

1


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Demographic Profile<br />

The PMA is estimated to have a 2010 population of 171,594. It has a middle‐aged population age structure with<br />

predominant affluence classification of middle and upscale, and above average incomes when compared with the<br />

Calgary CMA.<br />

An estimated 10,968 people are aged 75+ years or older in the PMA, representing 6.4% of the total population.<br />

The number of seniors is expected to grow to 11,370 over the next 5 years, a modest increase of 3.7%. The average<br />

annual income for the 75+ cohort is $52,376, 33% higher than the Calgary CMA average.<br />

Supply & Demand<br />

The PMA contains a total of 963 retirement units in six (6) residences and currently captures approximately 8.8%<br />

of the seniors’ 75+ population. Based on our analysis of existing supply, we estimate that no units in the PMA<br />

would be competitive to the proposed high end development.<br />

To estimate market demand, our model considers family types, frailty in the seniors’ population and income<br />

levels. Based on our modelling, potential demand in the PMA is for 262 units.<br />

Demand Coverage Ratio [DCR]<br />

The demand coverage ratio measures the relationship between market demand and competitive supply in the<br />

PMA. We contend that a market is in equilibrium when the DCR is approximately 2.0.<br />

As noted above, no units are deemed “competitive supply” in the PMA. Our model includes the subject property<br />

units [73] and presumes that 75% of the total demand originates from the PMA, or 55 units [73x 75%]. Therefore,<br />

the DCR is calculated at 4.8 [qualified demand ÷ net supply]. Based on population forecast by Environics<br />

Analytics, the DCR will rise to 5.2 by 2015 barring a possible change to the supply.<br />

Operating Assumptions<br />

Based on our analysis of AL and ALZ rental rates at similar freestanding, upscale residences across the country, it<br />

is our opinion that the estimated average rents, staffing ratio and overall expense ratio proposed are consistent<br />

with benchmarks in the seniors’ housing market and reasonable to achieve in the Calgary market.<br />

2


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Purpose of the <strong>Study</strong><br />

INTRODUCTION<br />

The purpose of this market feasibility study is to determine if demand exists for a high‐end assisted living and<br />

memory care residence in Calgary, Alberta.<br />

Intended Use of the <strong>Study</strong><br />

The only intended use of this study is to assist with construction financing for a proposed seniors’ housing<br />

residence located at the intersection of Elbow Drive and 49th Avenue SW, in Calgary, Alberta.<br />

Effective Date of the <strong>Study</strong><br />

The effective date of the study is October 15, 2010.<br />

Data<br />

The data utilized in our analysis is derived from the 2006 Canadian Census, 2005 Tax Filer data, Environics<br />

Analytics, the Assisted <strong>Living</strong> Federation of America, the National Investment Conference for the <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong><br />

and Long Term Care Industries, as well as various proprietary databases.<br />

We have relied on Environics Analytics for our population estimates and forecasts.<br />

Scope of Investigations<br />

The scope of this market feasibility study encompasses the necessary research and analysis to prepare a report in<br />

accordance with “The Standards” which involved the following steps.<br />

� Published data from municipal authorities was reviewed as it relates to the real estate market in which<br />

the subject is situated. Investigations were carried out in order to evaluate market trends, influences and<br />

other significant factors relevant to the subject property.<br />

� A demographic profile of the subject property’s PMA was compiled from data sources including Statistics<br />

Canada and Environics Analytics.<br />

� The competitive supply documented in this report was researched and interviews were carried out with<br />

the operators involved in order to obtain current rental rates, occupancy levels and an indication of<br />

general market conditions.<br />

� A demand model for the proposed property was prepared.<br />

Since this study was not intended to be used for court purposes or for arbitration, some of the information set out<br />

may not have been fully documented or confirmed by reference to primary sources.<br />

3


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

The user of this report should exercise reasonable and proper due diligence and consult legal advice and such<br />

other experts necessary to make informed decisions regarding the property.<br />

Assumptions & Limiting Conditions<br />

This report is prepared at the request of our client, Milliken Developments, as a market feasibility study. It is not<br />

reasonable for any company other than Milliken Developments to rely upon this report without first obtaining<br />

written authorization from the <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd. There may be assumptions or limiting conditions in addition to<br />

those set out below relevant to the client or their intended use. This report is prepared on the assumption that no<br />

other person(s) will rely on it for any other purpose and that all liability to all such persons is denied.<br />

While expert in consulting matters, the author is not qualified and does not purport to give legal advice.<br />

The author is not a qualified surveyor and no legal survey concerning the subject has been provided. Sketches,<br />

photographs, etc. are presented in this report for the limited purpose of illustration, are not to be relied upon.<br />

Neither possession of this report nor a copy carries with it the right of publication. All copyright is reserved to the<br />

author and is considered confidential by the author and his client. It will not be disclosed, quoted from or referred<br />

to, in whole or in part, or published in any manner, without the express written consent of <strong>Altus</strong> Group. It is<br />

subject to confidential review by the Appraisal Institute of Canada.<br />

The information furnished by our sources is believed to be reliable. As well as using documented and generally<br />

reliable evidence of market transactions, it was also necessary to rely on hearsay evidence.<br />

Because market conditions, including economic, social and political factors, change rapidly and, on occasion,<br />

without warning, the conclusion[s] reached as of the date of this appraisal cannot be relied upon to estimate<br />

market value of any other date except with further advice of the author.<br />

The compensation for services rendered in the report does not include a fee for court preparation or appearances.<br />

However, neither this nor any other of these limiting conditions is an attempt to limit the use that might be made<br />

of this report should it properly become evidence in a judicial body which will decide the use of the report which<br />

best serves the administration of justice.<br />

Extraordinary Assumptions<br />

The reader is advised that this report does not address unforeseeable events that could alter market conditions<br />

reflected in the analysis prior to completed construction.<br />

4


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Canada, Economic Overview<br />

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW<br />

Source: <strong>Altus</strong> Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada, CMHC, and Conference Board of Canada (data as at August, 2010)<br />

The pace of the Canadian recovery slowed significantly in the second quarter. According to Statistics Canada,<br />

Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to an annualized 2.0% in the second quarter of 2010. The<br />

performance in the second quarter was led by oil and gas extraction and mining, while housing investment, which<br />

had previously driven growth, showed signs of softening. Although the pace of the recovery has become more<br />

tepid, these new levels appear to be more sustainable. Overall, the consensus view continues to be for a fairly<br />

gradual economic recovery. One factor prompting the cautious optimism is foreign trade, which continues to<br />

struggle, posting a number of small deficits and surpluses, a far cry from the large surpluses prior to the recession.<br />

Part of this can be attributed to the continued struggles of forestry exports, which is attributable to the continued<br />

weakness in the U.S. housing market. Also, a possible slowdown in China could dampen demand for some of<br />

Canada’s raw materials.<br />

Over 2010 as a whole, Canada’s GDP is expected to grow at an annualized pace of some 3.2% before slowing to an<br />

annualized pace of 2.7% in 2011. Public sector spending will continue to play an important role in economic<br />

growth while private spending also improves. Concerns over a euro‐zone debt crisis should continue to add<br />

pressure to the Canadian recovery. However, the continual improvement in private sector spending should help<br />

alleviate any concerns about a double‐dip recession in Canada.<br />

5


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Strong job growth since the second half of 2009 has resulted in Canada recouping nearly all of the jobs lost in the<br />

recession. In the second quarter of 2010, employment was up about 1.0% from the previous quarter on a<br />

seasonally adjusted basis. In addition, employment in the second quarter was nearly 293,000 jobs higher than the<br />

same period in the previous year. The outlook is for employment to grow at an average annual pace of 1.6%<br />

through the forecast period.<br />

Housing starts remained a bright spot in the Canadian economy in the second quarter, rising to 202,400 units,<br />

seasonally adjusted at annual rates. This marked the fourth straight quarter‐over‐quarter improvement. Overall,<br />

housing starts were 4.9% higher than the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, these levels<br />

are expected to moderate due to exhausted levels of pent‐up demand and the effects of pulled‐forward sales.<br />

Existing home sales are also showing signs of softening. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported that the<br />

number of homes sold in the second quarter declined by 13% on a seasonally adjusted basis, and average existing<br />

home prices also moderated. Overall, despite improved employment conditions and the expectation that the<br />

recovery has become more entrenched, the housing market is expected to recede from the frothy levels<br />

experienced in the first half of 2010.<br />

Activity in non‐residential construction spending (buildings and infrastructure) showed some encouraging signs of<br />

improvement in the second quarter, led by investment in commercial and industrial buildings. Overall, spending<br />

on non‐residential structures was 1.2% higher than the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. However,<br />

levels still remained 3.8% below the same period in the previous year. Spending should continue to improve as<br />

businesses resume spending and efforts to complete projects associated with government stimulus spending<br />

continue. Also, with oil prices beginning to stabilize and uncertainty surrounding deep sea drilling, private sector<br />

investment intentions for oil and gas investment in the Western provinces should improve.<br />

All told, the economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, but there remain some headwinds to the recovery.<br />

The significant amounts of public‐sector debt is now a concern for the euro area, and it will limit the potential<br />

contribution of public sector stimulus going forward and has translated into higher taxes and interest rates.<br />

Another major concern is lethargic job growth in the U.S. Sluggish employment growth has resulted in still‐<br />

depressed consumer confidence and a housing market still struggling to gain a foothold.<br />

6


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Alberta, Economic Overview<br />

Source: <strong>Altus</strong> Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada, CMHC, and Conference Board of Canada (data as at August, 2010)<br />

The Alberta economy has bounced back after a difficult 2009, with economic growth is expected to resonate<br />

throughout the forecast period. The improved performance is partially due to the insatiable thirst for oil and gas<br />

and the Province unveiling new royalty rates, which make it a more attractive destination for investment.<br />

Resource prices have lured many firms back to the oil sands, as a number of companies have announced<br />

intentions to bring once idle projects back online or increase production. The benefits of increased investment in<br />

the oil sands should flow through the economy and benefit the manufacturing, trade and service industries.<br />

Exports also continue to improve but the recovery remains gradual. In the second quarter, exports were 28%<br />

higher than the same period in the previous year. The improvement was led by exports from petroleum refineries.<br />

As the global economy improves and demand for resources reasserts itself, Alberta will likely re‐establish itself as<br />

the Canadian growth leader.<br />

Employment continues to be a soft spot in the province, but it is expected to pick up steam. Although<br />

employment levels have started to improve recently, they remain well below the peak experienced before the<br />

recession. In the second quarter, employment was only 0.2% higher than the same period in the previous year and<br />

well off the pace experienced by other Canadian provinces. Overall, in 2010 annualized employment is expected<br />

to be 0.4% higher than the previous year as the province is not expected to recover the jobs lost in the recession<br />

until 2011.<br />

7


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Housing starts in Alberta continued to improve in the second quarter. Starts were about 12% higher than the<br />

previous quarter, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and almost double the same period in 2009. Despite the<br />

improvement in housing starts, levels remain well below those experienced prior to the recession. New housing<br />

construction will continue to face headwinds as a number of completed and unabsorbed row and apartment units<br />

continue to increase and limit the number of apartment starts going forward. The oversupply of condominium<br />

apartment units is compounded by slower migration to the province, as migration in the first quarter of 2010 was<br />

about 60% lower than the same period in the previous year. These factors will likely restrain housing starts in the<br />

short term before showing more stable signs of improvement as they become more aligned with market<br />

fundamentals.<br />

Spending on non‐residential building construction has yet to improve. Non‐residential investment spending was<br />

2.2% lower than the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis and 12% lower than the same period in 2009.<br />

As technological advancements in the extraction of shale gas result in the emergence of this industry in B.C. and<br />

Saskatchewan this could negatively impact the important natural gas industry in the province and limit the<br />

number of projects going forward. However there are a number of factors that have renewed interest in the oil<br />

and gas industry in the province. These include stable oil prices, uncertainty surrounding deep sea drilling and a<br />

more competitive royalty regime. Therefore, investment in non‐residential building construction is expected to<br />

start to recover and remain strong.<br />

While the oil industry is on a solid footing, within the natural gas sector there are ongoing structural implications<br />

for this key Alberta industry. Technology has unlocked vast supplies of shale gas across North America. This is a<br />

game changer for the natural gas industry in terms of feasibility of development, reserve estimates, and proximity<br />

of supply to markets. The new supply additions, coupled with weakened demand from industry, have resulted in a<br />

sustained downtrend in natural gas prices from $8.00 GJ to $4.00 GJ during the past two years. The implication is<br />

that the budget surplus party is over for the Alberta Government. In perspective, the leading source of revenue for<br />

the Alberta Government is energy resource revenue, accounting for 30% of total government revenue. The key<br />

challenge is that of the total resource revenue generated for the government, 65% is derived from natural gas,<br />

25% from oil sands, and 10% from conventional oil. Until the oil sands industry output increases substantively, the<br />

Alberta Government will be faced with lesser revenue. This has demand side implications for real estate,<br />

particularly the government office sector in Downtown Edmonton.<br />

The recovery in Alberta will be tied to the strength of oil prices, as the benefits will trickle down through the<br />

economy since both the manufacturing and trade industries are highly interconnected with the resource industry.<br />

8


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Calgary, Economic Overview<br />

Source: <strong>Altus</strong> Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada, CMHC, and Conference Board of Canada (data as at August, 2010)<br />

Calgary continues to have an economy where prosperity is linked to energy market conditions, as the Calgary<br />

CMA is home to many service‐providing companies along the energy‐sector value chain. The strong energy<br />

market over the past several years has resulted in nation leading population growth and Calgary now being the<br />

fifth largest city in Canada (as per 2006 Census). The local economy should strengthen in 2011, due in part to<br />

stronger global demand and higher prices for resources. Higher energy prices will likely lure some investment<br />

back to the province and Calgary should experience spin‐off benefits from the increased spending.<br />

Employment has continued to struggle in the region despite improvements throughout much of Canada. In the<br />

second quarter, employment was 0.5% lower than the same period in the previous year and 0.7% lower than the<br />

previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The annualized employment growth rate of 1.9% expected in<br />

2011 is still significantly slower than the annual average growth rate of 3.1% experienced over the last decade.<br />

9


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Despite wavering employment conditions, housing starts have continued to improve. In the second quarter,<br />

housing starts were almost double the level experienced in the same period in the previous year. However, there<br />

are signs that the housing market in Calgary is set to cool, as the number of newly completed and unabsorbed row<br />

and apartment units continues to increase and existing home sales have started to decline. However despite these<br />

risks, the Calgary housing market should continue to benefit from improved affordability as both new and existing<br />

house prices are below their pre‐recessionary peaks. Also, the region continues to have one of the strongest<br />

population growth rates of any large metropolitan area in Canada, which bodes well for market fundamentals.<br />

After experiencing double digit increases between 2004 and 2008, spending on non‐residential building<br />

construction has continued to decline. Activity in non‐residential construction was 1.9% lower in the second<br />

quarter of 2010 compared to the previous quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, despite these lower<br />

levels of construction spending there are some large projects in the pipeline, including the expansion of the<br />

Calgary Airport, which is expected to cost $45 million and be finished in 2013. Also, uncertainty surrounding future<br />

regulations for deep‐sea drilling could shift more investment to the Alberta oil and gas sectors and the region<br />

should experience spin‐off benefits associated with higher levels of investment.<br />

Although there is up‐side potential due to the possibility of increased spending in the oil and gas sectors, wavering<br />

employment conditions and a fragile U.S. recovery could dampen the recovery.<br />

10


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

SENIORS MARKET EVOLUTION & HISTORIC OVERVIEW<br />

Historically, the American seniors housing industry has been considered to be a decade in advance of the<br />

Canadian industry simply by virtue of the fundamental difference in the health care delivery systems in the two<br />

countries. This gap has closed considerably as today the two countries are operating on virtually identical<br />

marketplace premises.<br />

In Canada, the Federal Government’s commitment to a universal public health care system drove the retirement<br />

and health care industry to revolve principally around an institutional model with uniformly consistent products<br />

that were more nursing home like than hospitality. Investors in the industry were largely small local “mom and<br />

pop” entities. It is no coincidence that the vast majority of the existing inventory of projects (both public and<br />

private) developed across Canada before about 1995 are characterized by a preponderance of small bed‐sitting<br />

rooms, limited amenity spaces and cafeteria quality meal facilities, which are appropriate for a care model but not<br />

an independent model.<br />

In the US, the existence of strong private sector involvement in health care has driven investors, developers and<br />

operators to create distinctly different housing and health care options. Much of the evolution of products such as<br />

condominiums for seniors, campus style continuing care retirement communities, life‐care residences and stand‐<br />

alone lifestyle rental retirement residences have evolved from a fundamental understanding of the quality and<br />

customer service expectation in the private pay realm. Although there have been legacies of large, institutional<br />

nursing home owners and operators such as Beverly and Hillhaven, the rapid evolution of the lifestyle retirement<br />

industry was propelled by companies such as Sunrise and Marriott in the 1980’s which demonstrated that the<br />

business could be as much about “want” as about “need.”<br />

Customer service in the business of caring for seniors had thus proven to be a bona fide philosophy for<br />

profitability. In the 1990’s the nursing home sector began to feel the burden of customer expectation and out of<br />

this turmoil evolved the assisted living industry. This evolution blended the best of both nursing and lifestyle<br />

retirement living into a new service product that now placed a high premium on meeting the expectations of not<br />

only the seniors who were the residents, but also on meeting the expectations of the adult children of the seniors<br />

who were lynchpins in the decision making process for private pay nursing services. Success in this new paradigm<br />

required developers and operators to create buildings and unbundled services more into a menu instead of the<br />

one‐size‐fits‐all philosophies of the past. Indeed, the Baby Boomer adult children of seniors had become of<br />

paramount importance. Companies such as Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong> were spawned from this revolution and as the<br />

market accepted these products, the capital markets began to feel more comfortable with these products and<br />

companies.<br />

In Canada, it took until the late 1990’s for the capital markets to become comfortable with the appeal and<br />

profitability of the seniors housing sector. Apart from Extendicare and its focus on nursing homes, the launch of<br />

the Central Park Lodges LTC REIT in 1997 precipitated and paved the way to the public markets for companies<br />

such as Amica, Chartwell, Sunrise and CPAC. Interestingly, these companies have one thing in common; they are<br />

all committed in some degree to the principles of customer service in their residence development and operating<br />

models. These public companies, especially the large REITs, have both funded and private‐pay residences in their<br />

portfolios as expected in the Canadian context.<br />

11


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

A testimony to how closely converged the two countries are in terms of product development and business<br />

philosophy today is the fact that two of the largest Canadian public companies (Chartwell REIT and Extendicare)<br />

have residences in both Canada and the USA and manage them all from headquarters in Canada. Further, two of<br />

the longest standing national players in Canada are RRO (formerly Retirement Residences REIT) and Holiday<br />

Retirement Corp. It is in the context of daily business of these bi‐national developer operators that the inevitable<br />

convergence of the Canadian and American experiences will most rapidly occur.<br />

The shifting Canadian Provincial landscape for private sector involvement in the provision of assisted living is<br />

likely to open up significant opportunities for investors, developers and operators. Provinces such as Quebec and<br />

Alberta are leading the way in the level of cooperation between public and private sectors and demonstrate a real<br />

willingness to allow the private sector to evolve market‐driven services and products. It is the success of such<br />

public‐private initiatives and the continued positive experiences of the large public company investors that will<br />

lead to the growth in investment in Canada by American companies. Of course, the fact that the product<br />

segmentation differences of yesterday are becoming blurred to non‐existence also helps greatly.<br />

Nomenclature<br />

The seniors housing industry brings together elements of traditional real estate, together with hospitality and<br />

health care industries. The components of the industry as we know it today form a continuum of care that<br />

generally parallels the stages of aging. The following diagram illustrates the general business sectors of the<br />

industry in Canada.<br />

12<br />

INDEPENDENT LIVING > INDEPENDENT SERVICED LIVING > ASSISTED LIVING > MEMORY CARE > LONG TERM CARE<br />

This accommodation reflects a declining contribution of “real estate” and increasing contribution of “business”<br />

value through the continuum of care.<br />

Independent <strong>Living</strong> (IL) accommodation is typically an apartment/unit which has a full kitchen and which forms<br />

part of a larger seniors’ community. Suites may be owned or rented and cater to seniors who require minimal or<br />

no assistance with daily living. Sometimes a limited meals package and housekeeping are included in the basic<br />

rental/monthly fee but typically, services such as meals, housekeeping and laundry are normally provided on<br />

request for an additional charge. IL residences are not subsidized by the government and residents are<br />

responsible for the entire cost of accommodation and services.<br />

From a rental perspective, IL is most common in the Province of Quebec. In other Provinces, it is typically<br />

encountered in the non‐profit sector as rentals or life‐lease projects. An emerging trend for IL in Ontario and BC is<br />

ownership in the form of condominium apartments which are often attached in some fashion to a rental<br />

retirement home. Amenities and services of the rental building are made available to owners of the condos for a<br />

fee. Operators such as Amica (with JV developer partners) and CPAC (now part of Chartwell REIT) are innovators<br />

of this model in Canada.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Independent Serviced <strong>Living</strong> (ISL) and Assisted <strong>Living</strong> (AL) are typically associated with retirement residences and<br />

play the most significant role in the seniors’ housing industry, providing for the lifestyle wants of seniors while also<br />

catering to their physical needs as they age over time. They offer services such as 24 hour supervision and<br />

emergency response, 2 to 3 daily meals and snacks, planned social and physical activities, housekeeping and<br />

laundry services and assistance with one or more acts of daily living. Retirement homes are privately owned and<br />

are not regulated by the government except through local municipal by‐laws, building codes, etc. ISL and AL are<br />

differentiated by the service platform.<br />

ISL residences are more lifestyle oriented than AL, typically providing assistance with “instrumental” acts of daily<br />

living such as meal preparation, housekeeping and laundry, and with limited personal care services such as<br />

medication administration and/or assistance with weekly bathing. AL residences are a combination of housing,<br />

personalized supportive services and health care designed to meet the needs of those who require assistance with<br />

activities of daily living. Although the target market is 75+ years of age, the average age is typically about 85 years<br />

old. Typical services include assistance with transferring, bathing, grooming, medications, special diets, etc. The<br />

noted exception is the Province of Ontario where a retirement home operator is allowed to provide up to 1½<br />

hours per day of personal care without a license. This is the main distinguishing factor between the retirement<br />

home market in Ontario and others in Western Canada.<br />

In our view, this is an excellent opportunity for operators in Ontario. They can offer a continuum of care in their<br />

buildings, extending the average stay and create additional revenues along the way. This is particularly true since<br />

the LTC beds are now generally full (with a few exceptions) and care needs will again spill over into the private<br />

retirement home sector.<br />

Long Term Care (LTC) throughout the Canadian seniors housing sector is designed to accommodate residents<br />

who no longer are able to live independently and who require onsite nursing care, 24 hour supervision or personal<br />

support. LTC residences offer higher levels of personal care and support than is typically provided by independent<br />

living and/or retirement residences. Accommodation may include shared, semi‐private or private units. Most<br />

residences are licensed or require some level of government approval to operate and are eligible for government<br />

funding support subject to regulation and care standards.<br />

Development Trends<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s and their adult children (“influencers”) are increasingly becoming well‐informed about the housing<br />

options and service offerings available in the market. The stereotype of the “old folk’s home” is being replaced by<br />

an awareness and appreciation of the merits of specialty seniors housing arrangements. Increasingly, the<br />

healthier, more affluent senior is demanding and receiving the model of housing she or he wants, one offering a<br />

more independent lifestyle with care and support available, but only as needed. Most contemporary retirement<br />

homes now resemble hotels more than the nursing homes of previous generations. The industry is evolving to<br />

meet new needs and the demands of the seniors housing sector.<br />

Since residents in seniors housing residences of all types spend so much time in the residence and rely on the<br />

programs and staff for so much of their daily enjoyment, residence managers must be committed to excellence in<br />

service delivery. In addition to experience and expertise in providing health services to seniors, residence<br />

managers may also include professionals from the hospitality sector.<br />

13


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

With their growing affluence and the encouragement and support of their adult children, many more seniors are<br />

able to select more attractive ISL arrangements. These residences offer larger suites, more common areas,<br />

amenities and social programs. These residences look and feel like an apartment or hotel, offering services that<br />

residents enjoy and care that many residents need. The buildings offer increasingly sophisticated fire and safety<br />

systems, heating and cooling, and communications and emergency response technologies. In the long‐term care<br />

sector in Ontario (and in other provinces), new design standards and models are leading to the creation of less<br />

institutional, friendlier residences where the residents can better cope with their frailties and limitations with<br />

dignity.<br />

Marketing of retirement homes is becoming increasingly important for a number of reasons. First, with the<br />

expanding range of residences and programs being offered, it is necessary to educate consumers as to the choices<br />

available and to dispel the image of old‐style seniors homes. Second, marketing assists in reducing the time to<br />

achieve lease‐up, resulting in earlier stabilization. Third, effective marketing in the local community, through<br />

market positioning, understanding local needs and good relations with local health professionals, helps to ensure<br />

future referrals of new residents. With respect to LTC Residences, while occupancy is rarely a concern (given<br />

government control of supply and funding), the ability of a residence to attract residents willing to pay extra for<br />

preferred accommodation (such as private rooms) represents a profit opportunity which can be realized through<br />

effective marketing.<br />

In addition to new types and designs of seniors housing residences noted above, there are continuing<br />

improvements in technologies, treatments and options for seniors. These include sophisticated resident tracking<br />

and emergency response systems, the introduction of new medications targeting the deteriorating effects of<br />

dementia, enhanced ventilation systems, anti‐microbial/anti‐bacterial carpets, new food preparation systems,<br />

computer based monitoring/communications systems and portable telephones that permit staff to monitor all<br />

aspects of a building’s safety and security allowing prompt responses to resident requests. The increasing use of<br />

the internet as a communications tool has led to the introduction of internet stations as a standard component in<br />

the design of new residences. At the same time the search for, and selection of, accommodation for seniors<br />

increasingly involves obtaining information from the Internet, including seniors housing and healthcare, websites.<br />

The successful operation of any type of seniors housing residence demands a broad range of expertise. The<br />

operational skill sets required include property management, hotel services (food and lodging), social activation,<br />

management of health care programs, marketing and community relations, labour relations, and liaison with<br />

government, regulators and other professionals. Established industry leaders can attract and retain key<br />

managers, professionals and front‐line staff to provide all of these needed skills by offering better career paths<br />

and working conditions than smaller operators. Larger players also enjoy economies of scale in purchasing and<br />

can afford better marketing and branding strategies. For new entrants to the seniors housing sector, obtaining<br />

financing can be difficult since lenders and CMHC consider the level of experience when assessing any prospective<br />

operator’s loan application.<br />

The risks and rewards associated with seniors housing depend on the type of residences owned or operated. IL<br />

residences and retirement homes are similar to apartments in that space for living accommodation is rented, but<br />

with various levels of services also offered. The principal factors affecting occupancy levels and revenues of a<br />

14


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

residence are the size of the seniors’ population in the surrounding area and the residence types that the<br />

population requires. Effective marketing can positively influence revenues and occupancy rates.<br />

Profit margins for IL residences and retirement homes are generally higher than for LTC Residences. The<br />

ownership and operation of LTC Residences tends to involve lower risk but generate smaller profit margins than<br />

other types of seniors housing residences because of government regulation and higher levels of care and costs.<br />

The greatest risks for all types of seniors housing residences are in the development phase, which includes land<br />

assembly, zoning approvals, construction and lease‐up.<br />

Conclusions<br />

Up until the late 1990's, the retirement home industry was fragmented with a number of operators and few<br />

corporate entities. The product available for sale was largely institutional, involving small, nondescript buildings.<br />

Transactions were limited in number and generally reflected a range in overall cap rates between 11.0% and<br />

12.0%. Few contemporary projects had been sold or even offered for sale. During the past 10 years, the market<br />

has consolidated to some degree with the emergence of corporate and institutional investors. Their appetite for<br />

product and aggressive pricing, combined with the inherent difficulties competing with larger chains, has enticed<br />

or perhaps forced many smaller operators to divest.<br />

Sales volume has grown considerably beginning with the formation of Retirement Residences REIT [Revera] and<br />

later Chartwell REIT and Maestro Real Estate Capital Management. Not only has volume picked up, so has the<br />

quality of assets being offered for sale. 2007 was a significant year for transactions, particularly of portfolios; three<br />

notable transactions took place which affected the Canadian seniors housing market. The first to close was the<br />

Public Sector Pension Investment Board’s acquisition of Retirement Residences REIT. The second, the largest by<br />

dollar volume, was the acquisition of Holiday Retirement Corporation by the Fortress Investment Group. This was<br />

followed closely by Ventas REIT’s acquisition of Sunrise REIT. Prior to this the largest most significant portfolio<br />

acquisition involving Canadian seniors housing properties was in September 2003, when the “Lifestyles” portfolio<br />

was acquired by RRREIT. The transaction was significant for two reasons. Not only did it involve one of the<br />

country’s finest chains, but the REIT’s equity partner was Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.<br />

The market remains fragmented with only about 25% to 30% of the market being held by a small contingent of<br />

operators led by Chartwell REIT, Revera and Maestro. A pattern of capitalization rates and other relationships in<br />

this industry has emerged and has become relatively well established.<br />

15


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing Overview<br />

Alberta currently has over 370,000 seniors (residents over the age of 65), representing approximately 10% of the<br />

provincial population. This number has steadily increased over the past 20 years, and is expected to continue to<br />

grow into the near future due to a number of factors, including the aging of the “baby boomer” generation, lower<br />

birth rates, and longer life expectancy. It is estimated that in less than 20 years, the seniors’ populace will double,<br />

and that by 2031, one in five Albertans will be over 65 years in age. For Edmonton specifically, the most recent<br />

municipal census (2009) had 76,776 seniors living in that city. This represented 11% of the respondent population,<br />

relatively consistent with the provincial average.<br />

With the increase in life expectancy for people in the 20th Century, the proportion of senior citizens will continue<br />

to grow. According to Health Canada, since 1920, life expectancy has increased by an average of seven years for<br />

men and thirteen years for women. This will further increase the number of people over the age of 75.<br />

To meet future demands for seniors’ housing, the Government of Alberta has initiated the Affordable Supportive<br />

<strong>Living</strong> Initiative, and the Lodge Modernization and Improvement Program. The program has now committed<br />

funding to 60 organizations that will share $119 Million. In total, the funding will be used to build and modernize<br />

1,153 supportive living spaces and update 1,992 lodge units. Partnering organizations include municipalities, not‐<br />

for‐profit organizations, housing management bodies, and private sector companies. This funding is in addition<br />

to approximately $246 Million in capital funding since 1999 that has supported the development and<br />

modernization of approximately 4,800 supportive living housing units.<br />

The most recent trend in new construction in Alberta has seen significant development of Private Assisted <strong>Living</strong><br />

and Designated Assisted <strong>Living</strong> facilities. This trend is congruent with the demographics of the Province and will<br />

assist in accommodating the upcoming wave of seniors in need of appropriate housing services. The intention is<br />

also that the development of these types of facilities will bridge the gap between independent living and long‐<br />

term care, thus reducing the pressure on long‐term care facilities.<br />

As it relates to the demographic profile of Alberta seniors, the following discussion provides a brief summary of<br />

some pertinent facts.<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s on average earn less than those people below the age of 65 do. The most recent income data compiled<br />

on income of seniors is from 2004. The average pre‐tax income of senior families in Alberta was $56,200; the<br />

average pre‐tax income of unattached male seniors was $29,500; the average for unattached single female<br />

seniors was $25,500. The income earned by seniors is comprised of approximately 60% from non‐government<br />

sources.<br />

According to Statistics Canada, senior’s largest expenditure is shelter, accounting for 21% of overall total<br />

expenditures. The second largest expenditure is transportation, accounting for 16%.<br />

16


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

As it relates to housing expenditures, the following chart outlines the distribution of those over the age of 65 in<br />

terms of housing style.<br />

Overall, the senior demographic is a viable and growing customer base. Continued development of seniors<br />

housing will be required on a go forward basis, with new product being by both public and private organizations,<br />

or by way of joint public/private initiatives.<br />

In Alberta, the continuing care system is shared responsibility between Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s and Community Support<br />

and Alberta Health and Wellness. There are three streams of services/accommodations within the Alberta<br />

continuing care system; home living, supportive living, and facility living.<br />

17


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

� Home <strong>Living</strong> – Includes people who live in their own homes, including, but not limited to, single family<br />

dwellings, apartments, condominiums, and other independent living seniors apartments.<br />

� Supportive <strong>Living</strong> – Combines accommodations or housing and hospitality services with other supports and<br />

care. Supportive living operators are responsible for coordinating and arranging hospitality services and may<br />

coordinate or provide personal care and other support services. There are currently 4 levels of supportive<br />

living care offered in the Province of Alberta.<br />

� Facility <strong>Living</strong> – Include long term care facilities (ie. Nursing homes, auxiliary hospitals) that provide care for<br />

individuals whose health needs are such that they are unable to remain at home or in a supportive living<br />

accommodations.<br />

Prior to 1993, there were 180 health boards in the Province of Alberta. In 1994, 17 health regions were created by<br />

government with appointed boards to manage operational decision making at the local level. Many new<br />

initiatives were developed for seniors, including the concept of “designated assisted living” and increased<br />

supportive living complexes. In 2003, the number of health regions was further reduced to nine.<br />

In May 2008, the Alberta government announced its decision to govern the province with one health system<br />

under the Alberta Health Services Board. This replaced the nine health regions previously in place that were<br />

accountable to the Minister of Health and Wellness. Previously, each of these nine health regions was responsible<br />

for their own standards, accountabilities, language of services and funding structures. The belief was that these<br />

separate structures lacked the consistency, equity and flexibility necessary to adequately administer the services.<br />

Application Process<br />

An assessment of the seniors’ health and personal need is completed via a Continuing Care Placement<br />

Coordinator with the Alberta Health Services Board. The function of the coordinator is to assess the needs of a<br />

person for nursing home care of continuation of nursing home care.<br />

18<br />

(1) Under the Nursing Home Act, to be eligible for benefits, a “resident of Alberta” means a person lawfully<br />

entitled to be or to remain in Canada, who makes the person’s home and ordinarily a resident in Alberta<br />

and any other person deemed by the regulations to be a resident of Alberta, but does not include a<br />

tourist, transient, or visitor to Alberta<br />

(2) Benefits may be paid in respect of a resident:<br />

a. Who has been found by an assessment committee appointed pursuant to the regulations to require<br />

nursing home care,<br />

b. Who is a resident of Alberta and has resided in Alberta for a period prescribed in the regulations, and<br />

c. Who meets other requirements or conditions prescribed by the regulations<br />

(3) Benefits may not be paid in respect of a resident:<br />

a. If payment for the resident’s nursing home care is the responsibility of:<br />

i) The Worker’s Compensation Board<br />

ii) The Department of Veterans Affairs (Canada)<br />

iii) The Department of National Defence (Canada)


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

iv) The Medical Services Branch of Health Canada<br />

b. If the assessment committee finds that the resident is no longer in need of nursing home care or that<br />

the resident no longer meets other requirements or conditions prescribed by the regulations.<br />

(4) Nothing under this Act prevents a person who does not desire any or all of the benefits under this Act<br />

from assuming the responsibility for the payment of any or all of the costs of the person’s care in a<br />

nursing home<br />

Regulation<br />

The major pieces of regulation governing long term care facilities are the Long Term Care Accommodation<br />

Standards and the Continuing Care Health Services Standards. Alberta Health and Wellness is responsible for<br />

health care services while Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s and Community Supports assumes responsibility for overseeing the<br />

Government’s role in the provision of accommodation services. Until recently, regional health authorities<br />

monitored and enforced compliance with the Continuing Care Health Services Standards at the regional and<br />

operational level.<br />

Alberta Health and Wellness is responsible for publicly funded continuing care health services and has developed<br />

the Continuing Care Health Services Standards. Alberta <strong>Senior</strong>s and Community Supports is responsible for<br />

overseeing the Government’s role in the provision of accommodation services and has developed standards for<br />

long term care homes and supportive living residences. The standards were originally developed in 2006, and<br />

have been revised on an annual basis. The standards were developed in consultation with the regional health<br />

authorities (in place at that time), continuing care operators/agencies, professional associations, and various other<br />

stakeholders. The document identifies standards for the provision of quality continuing health services and it<br />

applies to all publically funded continuing care health services regardless of whether they are provided directly by,<br />

or under contract to, the applicable health authority. It is intended to build upon existing legislation and includes<br />

standards that are currently not in legislation. The Continuing Care Health Services Standards are based on the<br />

following six principles:<br />

� Client Centred Care – care planning, coordinating and delivery of services are centred on the client and their<br />

unique needs and preferences. The client participates in decisions regarding their care and their<br />

decisions/choices respected to the extent possible.<br />

� Integrated Care Teams – all individuals who are providing care work together to develop and implement a<br />

care plan. Team members know their roles and responsibilities and work together and support one another in<br />

delivering the best possible care.<br />

� Client and Family Involvement – clients/families are part of the integrated care team. They understand their<br />

roles/responsibilities and what is expected of them and are supported in making informed decisions about<br />

their care.<br />

� Wellness & Safety – clients are provided with services designed to address their assessed health needs and<br />

promote and maintain their wellbeing in a safe manner.<br />

� Quality Assurance – making sure a minimum quality of care is provided through compliance with the<br />

standards.<br />

19


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

� Quality improvement – improving the quality of care being provided through evidence based best practices,<br />

supporting innovation and creativity, and creating a culture of quality. This should incorporate the six<br />

dimensions of quality of the Alberta Quality Matrix for Health developed by the Health Quality Council of<br />

Alberta.<br />

Summary of DAL, EDAL & LTC Services<br />

Rent for DAL units includes all of the features of a typical the ISL service platform as well as up to 2 hours per day<br />

of personal care. EDAL residents receive up to 3 hours of personal care per day. These care requirements are set<br />

forth under the provincial regulations and personal care may include services such as; assistance with<br />

medications, dressing and grooming assistance, portering, cueing, bathing assistance, and assistance with eating.<br />

EDAL residents generally suffer from cognitive impairment and these residents require more one‐on‐one<br />

assistance within a secured setting. LTC residents receive all the services offered to the DAL and EDAL residents;<br />

however, LTC residents generally have more complex medical needs and they receive approximately 3.6 hours of<br />

personal care per day.<br />

20


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

REGIONAL & CITY DESCRIPTION<br />

Calgary is the largest city in Alberta and the third largest city [by population] in Canada. It has an area of 722<br />

square kilometres. The city serves as the hub of Canada’s fifth largest Census Metropolitan Area. It is located at<br />

the junction of the Bow and Elbow Rivers, in the foothills of Alberta's Rocky Mountains. Calgary is the<br />

predominant urban centre in Midwest Canada.<br />

Calgary is well served by its advanced transportation infrastructure. The TransCanada Highway runs through the<br />

heart of downtown Calgary and provides a linkage to Swift Current and Regina to the east and Kamloops and<br />

Vancouver to the west. Highway #2 provides regional north‐sought access connecting to Red Deer to the north<br />

and the Canada‐United States border to the south. Calgary Transit offers local public transportation throughout<br />

the city. Calgary International Airport offers domestic and international flights. It is the third busiest airport in the<br />

country, serving more than 12 million passengers on an annual basis.<br />

Despite much diversification in recent years, Calgary's economy is still dominated by the oil and gas industry. The<br />

larger companies include EnCana, Petro‐Canada, Shell Canada, Imperial Oil, Suncor Energy, and TransCanada.<br />

Agriculture, tourism, and the high‐tech industries have also contributed to the city's rapid economic growth in<br />

recent years. Other large employers include the Forzani Group, ATCO, Shaw Cable and Westjet.<br />

The Calgary Health Region serves a population base of more than 1.2 million people. The Calgary Health Region<br />

has approximately 2,300 doctors, 12 hospitals, 4 comprehensive health centres, and 41 care centres. The City of<br />

Calgary is served by four major hospitals; Alberta Children’s Hospital, Foothills Medical Centre, Peter Lougheed<br />

and Rockyview General Hospital. The Alberta Children’s Hospital is a state of the art facility that opened in 2006<br />

and it is one of the largest paediatric hospitals in the country.<br />

Location<br />

The subject property is located in the southwest area of Calgary, approximately 3 kilometres from downtown. It is<br />

situated at the intersection of Elbow Drive and 49 th Avenue SW within the residential neighbourhood of “Elboya”,<br />

immediately adjacent to the affluent Britannia neighbourhood.<br />

Elboya is an established inner city community in southwest Calgary. The majority of the area can be characterized<br />

as low density, single family residential with commercial development fronting Macleod Trail SW and Elbow<br />

Drive. Due to its setting in a prime, inner city location, redevelopment and gentrification are ongoing with new,<br />

custom built in‐fill homes replacing existing older housing stock. The community has good access to the<br />

downtown core via Macleod Trail SW and Elbow Drive SW, which form the east and west boundaries of the<br />

district respectively. The southern boundary of the district is formed by 50th Avenue SW and to the north by<br />

Elbow River. Stanley Park and Britannia border to the north and Windsor Park is immediately south.<br />

Average household incomes in neighbourhoods within 3 kilometres of the site where the majority of residents are<br />

expected to be drawn from include Britannia [$282,965], Elbow Park [$264,610}, Stanley Park [$388,186], Eagle<br />

Ridge [$269,290] and Belaire [$219,300]. Based on the trend, it is reasonable to conclude that average incomes in<br />

the subject area will continue to rise as new infill development expands.<br />

21


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Subject Property<br />

The following table summarizes 2009 average and median house prices in surrounding districts according to the<br />

Calgary Real Estate Board statistics:<br />

2009 Residential Sales<br />

Neighbourhood Sales Average Median<br />

Elboya 26 $832,635 $550,000<br />

Elbow Park/Glencoe 69 $1,384,508 $1,040,000<br />

Parkhill/Stanley Park 23 $630,656 $635,000<br />

Britannia 5 $1,234,600 $840,000<br />

Bel‐Aire 4 $1,551,750 $1,325,000<br />

Windsor Park 41 $528,097 $490,000<br />

Roxborough 7 $1,800,928 $1,885,000<br />

Meadowlark Park 19 $528,494 $433,000


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

According to PrizmC2 data [Environics Analytics], affluence classifications in the area are as follows:<br />

PRIZMC2 Affluence Groups<br />

20.0%<br />

10.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

Very Wealthy<br />

11.4%<br />

Wealthy<br />

15.9%<br />

Upscale<br />

9.1%<br />

Upper‐Middle<br />

12.5%<br />

This trend is evident in local commercial development. Opposite the subject site is Britannia Plaza, an outdoor<br />

strip neighbourhood centre containing a high end grocer [Sunterra], Starbucks Coffee and other local retail shops.<br />

Chinook Shopping Centre, the largest enclosed shopping mall in Calgary, is about 1.5 kilometres southeast, just<br />

north of Glenmore Trail. Calgary Golf & Country Club, a 100+ year old private members course, is immediately<br />

southwest of the subject property. Several parks straddle the Elbow River as it winds its way up through the City.<br />

Middle<br />

15.0%<br />

Lower‐Middle<br />

17.4%<br />

Downscale<br />

11.9%<br />

6.7%<br />

Low<br />

23


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Site Position Full‐block<br />

Local Access Elbow Drive<br />

Regional Access Excellent regional access via Highways #8 [Glenmore Trail] and #2 [Blackfoot<br />

Trail], although congested at peak hours of the day<br />

Public Transit Excellent access to public transit; bus service on Elbow Drive and BRT Train at<br />

nearby Chinook Station<br />

Land Uses in Area<br />

North Residential<br />

West Residential and Commercial retail; Elbow River and parklands beyond<br />

South Commercial [service], Calgary Golf & Country Club<br />

East Institutional [St. Anthony School], residential and large industrial park beyond<br />

Nearest hospital Rockyview General Hospital [3 km southwest]<br />

Visibility & Accessibility<br />

Photograph → Corner of Elbow Drive & 49 th Avenue SW<br />

The subject property is a regular shaped parcel of land comprising a total site area of 32,400 square feet (0.74<br />

acres), more or less. The site has three street frontages; 48 th Avenue, 49 th Avenue and Elbow Drive. The building<br />

will face west with the primary frontage on Elbow Drive.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Access to the property is via two curb cuts off Elbow Drive, with a service entrance off 49 th Avenue. The subject<br />

property has excellent visibility and exposure with its position on a corner block.<br />

Proposed Improvement<br />

The subject property will be improved with a 4 storey, luxury, boutique style retirement residence with a single<br />

storey below grade. It will be a purpose‐built, state‐of‐the‐art structure comprising 73 suites offering private and<br />

semi‐private accommodation to a targeted total of 85 residents. It will contain generous common areas and<br />

amenities throughout, specifically designed to facilitate the assisted and memory care service offering.<br />

25


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

First Floor – Primary Amenity Space<br />

Second Floor – Memory Care<br />

Third Floor – Assisted <strong>Living</strong>


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Fourth Floor – Memory Care<br />

Basement ‐ Parking<br />

Layout<br />

The subject property will contain 73 suites including 42 AL and 31 ALZ. The AL will comprise 35 studios ranging<br />

between 347 and 398 square feet and 7 one bedroom ranging between 476 and 491 square feet. The ALZ suite mix<br />

includes 18 studios ranging between 347 and 360 square feet and 12 shared suites measuring 476 square feet.<br />

The main floor contains the primary common areas including lobby/reception, lounges, activity room, games &<br />

fitness room, dining room, kitchen, bistro, wellness spa and administration offices.<br />

The third floor has medical offices, dining room, activity areas and lounges specifically designed for the AL<br />

program. The fourth floor [AZZ] has a small dining area, activity area and lounge. It also has a rooftop deck.<br />

The basement contains 31 parking spaces accessed via a ramp off 49 th Avenue, commercial laundry, mechanical<br />

rooms, storage space and resident lockers.<br />

27


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE<br />

The area in which the subject property is expected to draw the majority of its residents from is known as the<br />

Primary Market Area [PMA]. The PMA for the proposed subject property encompasses the southwesterly portion<br />

of the City of Calgary, south of the 17 th Avenue, east of Crowchild Trail/37 th Street SW, north of Fish Creek/Canyon<br />

Meadows Drive SE, and west of Queen Elizabeth Highway/Blackfoot Trail/McLeod Trail. The PMA is shown on the<br />

map below.<br />

Total Population<br />

Based on the 2006 Canadian Census the PMA had a population of 163,713. Currently the PMA population is<br />

estimated at 171,594 persons, which is an average growth of 1.6% per year since the 2006 census. Between 2010<br />

and 2015 the total population is expected to decrease by 0.3% per year and between 2015 and 2020 the decline is<br />

projected to continue at 0.1% per year. Projected population growth in the PMA is lower than the projected rate<br />

of growth in the Calgary CMA.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Total Population<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Population Population<br />

Actual 2006 163,713 1,079,310<br />

2010 171,594 1,208,438<br />

2013 169,656 1,321,208<br />

2015 168,748 1,403,453<br />

2020 167,987 1,636,125<br />

Projected<br />

Change 2006 ‐ 2010 7,881 129,128<br />

Change 2010 ‐ 2015 ‐2,846 195,015<br />

Change 2015 ‐ 2020 ‐761 232,672<br />

Total Population Change [per annum]<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Change/Year Change/Year<br />

Change 2006 ‐ 2010 1.6% 4.0%<br />

Change 2010 ‐ 2015 ‐0.3% 3.2%<br />

Change 2015 ‐ 2020 ‐0.1% 3.3%<br />

From the population pyramid below and a comparison of the population age groups to those in the Calgary CMA,<br />

the PMA overall has a middle‐aged population structure.<br />

Age 85 +<br />

80 to 84<br />

75 to 79<br />

70 to 74<br />

65 to 69<br />

60 to 64<br />

55 to 59<br />

50 to 54<br />

45 to 49<br />

40 to 44<br />

35 to 39<br />

30 to 34<br />

25 to 29<br />

20 to 24<br />

15 t o 19<br />

10 t o 14<br />

5 to 9<br />

0 to 4<br />

Population Pyramid [2010]<br />

5% 2% 0 2% 5%<br />

Percentage<br />

Female ‐ PMA<br />

Male ‐ PMA<br />

29


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s’ Population<br />

The tables below summarize current seniors’ population and projected seniors’ population growth for the age<br />

cohorts 65‐74, 75‐84 years and 85+ years of age.<br />

<strong>Senior</strong> Population<br />

PMA<br />

65‐74 75‐84 85+<br />

Actual 2006 11,111 7,664 2,398<br />

2010 11,947 7,969 2,999<br />

2013 13,632 7,882 3,323<br />

2015 14,899 7,856 3,514<br />

2020 18,592 8,725 3,814<br />

Projected<br />

<strong>Senior</strong> Population Change [per annum]<br />

Change 2006 ‐ 2010 836 305 601<br />

Change 2010 ‐ 2015 2,952 ‐113 515<br />

Change 2015 ‐ 2020 3,693 869 300<br />

65‐74 75‐84 85+<br />

PMA Calgary CMA PMA Calgary CMA PMA Calgary CMA<br />

2006 ‐ 2010 2.5% 3.4% 1.3% 2.6% 8.4% 5.7%<br />

2010 ‐ 2015 4.9% 8.2% ‐0.3% 2.3% 3.4% 6.5%<br />

2015 ‐ 2020 5.0% 8.6% 2.2% 3.4% 1.7% 4.0%<br />

According to the 2006 Census, the PMA had 11,111 seniors between the ages of 65 to 75 years old. Currently it is<br />

estimated that there are 11,947 seniors’ within the same age group, which is an increase of 2.5% per year from the<br />

2006 Census. The rate of growth for the next five‐year period is projected to be 4.9% and between 2015 and 2020<br />

the rate of growth is projected to be 5.0% per year.<br />

For the population segment 75 to 84 years old the population has increased from 7,664 persons in 2006 to 7,969<br />

persons today, a change of 1.3% per year. The rate of growth will continue at ‐0.3% between 2010 and 2015 and<br />

2.2% between 2015 and 2020.<br />

There are 2,999 seniors 85 years of age and older in the PMA which is an increase from 2,398 in 2006. Growth in<br />

the seniors’ population 85+ was 8.4% per year between 2006 and 2010, and is projected to continue to increase at<br />

a rate of 3.4% between 2010 and 2015 and 1.7% between 2015 and 2020.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

31


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Income<br />

The average household income in the PMA is 107,188, 10% greater than the Calgary CMA average.<br />

Average Household Income [2006]<br />

$120,000<br />

$100,000<br />

$80,000<br />

$60,000<br />

$40,000<br />

$20,000<br />

$0<br />

$107,188<br />

$95,948<br />

PMA Calgary CMA


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

According to PRIZMC2 affluence segmentation, the percentage of the population in the various affluence classes<br />

are 6.6% very wealthy, 16.8% wealthy, 17.3% upscale, 15.7% upper‐middle, 21.3% middle, 11.0% lower‐middle,<br />

8.3% downscale, and 3.0% low affluence. PRIZMC2 is a segmentation system developed by Environics Analytics to<br />

help identify and describe characteristics of neighbourhoods. One such segmentation is by affluence class.<br />

Affluence segmentation provides an indication of the relative wealth and prosperity in the population.<br />

PRIZMC2 Affluence Groups<br />

30.0%<br />

20.0%<br />

10.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

Very Wealthy<br />

6.6%<br />

Wealthy<br />

16.8% 17.3% 15.7%<br />

Upscale<br />

Upper‐Middle<br />

Middle<br />

21.3%<br />

Lower‐Middle<br />

11.0%<br />

Downscale<br />

8.3%<br />

3.0%<br />

Low<br />

33


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s’ Income<br />

The average seniors’ individual income for those 65‐74 years old is $ 61,581, 29% greater than the average seniors’<br />

income in the Calgary CMA. For seniors 75+ years of age, average income is $52,376, or 33% greater than the<br />

average seniors’ income in the Calgary CMA.<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s Individual Income [2005]<br />

$70,000<br />

$60,000<br />

$50,000<br />

$40,000<br />

$30,000<br />

$20,000<br />

$10,000<br />

$0<br />

$61,581<br />

$43,910<br />

$52,376<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s 65‐74 <strong>Senior</strong>s 75+<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

$35,194


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

The majority of seniors’ incomes fall below $25,000 per year which is typical of most areas. For the age group 65‐<br />

74 years, 43% are below and for those 75 years of age and older, 48% are below.<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s Individual Income<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

65‐74 75+ 65‐74 75+<br />

less than $25,000 43% 48% 52% 60%<br />

$25,000 ‐ $35,000 17% 17% 15% 16%<br />

$35,000 ‐ $50,000 16% 14% 14% 12%<br />

$50,000 and above 25% 21% 18% 13%<br />

Summary tables below show the main sources of seniors’ income for the age group 65‐74 years old and 75+ years<br />

of age. Virtually all seniors (65+ years) receive some form of government transfers [Old Age Security, Canadian<br />

Pension Plan, Guaranteed Income Supplements or Spouse’s Allowance Payment].<br />

Additionally, 63% of seniors’ 64‐75 and 71% of seniors 75+ years have private pensions with an annual income of<br />

$18,810 and $21,644 respectively.<br />

For the age group 65‐74, 65% have investment income reflecting an average of $14,625 per annum. For the age<br />

group 75+ years of age, 74% have investment income at an average of $15,143.<br />

The forth main source of seniors’ income is RRSP income. In the PMA, 13% of the seniors’ population 65‐74 years<br />

and 14% of the 75+ years of age has RRSP income. The average is $8,218 for those 65‐74 years and $8,095 for<br />

those 75+ years. Lastly, 39% (65‐74) and 38% (75+) of seniors have other sources of income and the average<br />

annual amounts equal $7,775 and $8,039 respectively.<br />

Main Sources of Income (65‐74)<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

% receiving Average $ % receiving Average $<br />

Government Transfer Payments 98% $12,264 98% $12,191<br />

Private Pensions 63% $18,810 56% $17,138<br />

Investment Income 65% $14,625 56% $9,537<br />

RRSP Income 13% $8,218 13% $7,588<br />

Other Income 39% $7,775 32% $6,849<br />

Main Sources of Income (75+)<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

% receiving Average $ % receiving Average $<br />

Government Transfer Payments 100% $13,346 100% $13,566<br />

Private Pensions 71% $21,644 62% $16,908<br />

Investment Income 74% $15,143 66% $9,093<br />

RRSP Income 14% $8,095 11% $6,218<br />

Other Income 38% $8,039 29% $5,622<br />

35


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Immigration & Ethnic Diversity<br />

Immigrants in the PMA represent 19% of the total population. About 22% of the population is classified as first<br />

generation Canadians. First generation person are defined as those born outside of Canada. An additional 22%<br />

are classified as second generation, which are those with at least one parent born outside Canada. Finally, 56% are<br />

classified as third generation or more which are persons with both parents born in Canada.<br />

Immigrant/Non‐Immigrant Population<br />

Total<br />

Immigrants<br />

19%<br />

Non‐<br />

Immigrant<br />

Population<br />

81%<br />

Generation Status<br />

3rd<br />

generation<br />

56%<br />

1st<br />

generation<br />

22%<br />

2nd<br />

generation<br />

22%


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

The top regional ethnicities in the PMA are: European and North American. The PMA has a higher percentage of<br />

European regional ethnicity when compared to the Calgary CMA.<br />

Regional Ethnicity<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

European 74.7% 67%<br />

North American 16.5% 17%<br />

Asian, Oceanic 6.5% 13%<br />

Latin, Central and South America 0.7% 1%<br />

African 0.7% 1%<br />

Arab 0.5% 1%<br />

Caribeean 0.4% 1%<br />

37


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Visible minorities represent 11.3% of the population within the PMA. The top visible minorities are: Chinese (3.4%)<br />

and South Asian (1.8%). The PMA has a lower percentage of visible minority population than Calgary CMA.<br />

Mobility<br />

Visible Minority Population<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Not a visible minority 88.7% 77.8%<br />

Total visible minority pop 11.3% 22.2%<br />

Chinese 3.4% 6.2%<br />

South Asian 1.8% 5.4%<br />

Black 1.1% 2.0%<br />

Filipino 1.6% 2.4%<br />

Latin American 0.9% 1.3%<br />

Southeast Asian 0.4% 1.5%<br />

Arab 0.4% 1.1%<br />

West Asian 0.3% 0.6%<br />

Korean 0.4% 0.6%<br />

Japanese 0.5% 0.4%<br />

Visible Minority n.i.e 0.1% 0.2%<br />

Mulitple visible minority 0.3% 0.6%<br />

Mobility is a measure of the number of people who lived at the same address on the day of the census as they did<br />

one year prior. Non‐movers are those that have not moved and movers are those who have moved within the past<br />

year based on the census date. In the PMA, 19% of the population are movers. This percentage is lower than the<br />

Calgary CMA average.<br />

Mobility statistics can be used to examine attraction or draw to a PMA and help predict locations of population<br />

growth based on inflow.<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Non‐<br />

Movers<br />

81%<br />

Movers<br />

19%<br />

Non‐<br />

Movers<br />

80%<br />

Movers<br />

20%


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Those residents that did move can be classified into four groups: non‐migrant, intra‐provincial, interprovincial and<br />

external migrants. Non‐migrant movers are those who have moved within the same city/town. Intra‐provincial<br />

movers are those that have moved to a new location within the same province. Inter‐provincial movers are those<br />

that have moved from another province and finally external migrants are those that have moved to Canada from<br />

another country.<br />

Of the residents in the PMA there was a higher disposition for them to be Non‐Migrant Interprovincial movers.<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Non‐Migrant<br />

69%<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s’ Mobility<br />

External<br />

7%<br />

Intraprovincial<br />

8%<br />

Interprovincial<br />

16%<br />

Non‐Migrant<br />

68%<br />

External<br />

8%<br />

Intraprovincial<br />

10%<br />

Interprovincial<br />

14%<br />

It is also possible to examine mobility in the seniors’ population 75+. The pie charts below compare mobility of the<br />

seniors’ population in the PMA to the seniors’ population in the Calgary CMA. Overall seniors’ mobility in the PMA<br />

is less than in the Calgary CMA.<br />

PMA Calgary CMA Calgary CMA<br />

Non‐<br />

Movers<br />

80%<br />

Movers<br />

20%<br />

Non‐Movers<br />

74%<br />

Movers<br />

26%<br />

39


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Of the senior movers, the highest percentage is Non‐Migrant. There are a higher percentage of Non‐Migrant<br />

movers in the PMA when compared to the Calgary CMA.<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Non‐Migrant<br />

75%<br />

Education & Labour<br />

External<br />

2%<br />

Intraprovincial<br />

9%<br />

Interprovincial<br />

14%<br />

Non‐<br />

Migrant<br />

70%<br />

External<br />

4%<br />

Intraprovincial<br />

11%<br />

Interprovincial<br />

15%<br />

A greater percentage of the seniors’ population 65+ years in the PMA have a college or university education when<br />

compared to the Calgary CMA. Higher level of education is typically a good indicator for retirement home living.<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

Education [<strong>Senior</strong>s 65+]<br />

No certificate, diploma or<br />

degree<br />

High school certificate or<br />

equivalent<br />

Apprenticeship or trades<br />

certificate or diploma<br />

Occupations of residents in the PMA have been summarized below.<br />

College, CEGEP or other<br />

non‐university certificate or<br />

diploma<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

University certificate<br />

diploma or degree


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Occupations<br />

Sales and service 22%<br />

Business, finance and administrative 21%<br />

Management 13%<br />

Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 12%<br />

Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 11%<br />

Social science, education, government service and religion 8%<br />

Health occupations 5%<br />

Art, culture, recreation and sport 4%<br />

Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 2%<br />

Occupations unique to primary industries 2%<br />

The highest percentage of people in the PMA have jobs in sales and service, business, finance and administrative,<br />

and management fields.<br />

The table below indicates the hours of unpaid care or assistance provided by individuals aged 15 years or older to<br />

seniors in the PMA [hours per week].<br />

Dwellings, Families & <strong>Living</strong> Arrangements<br />

Unpaid Care to <strong>Senior</strong>s<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

No hours 85% 85%<br />

Less than 5 hours 10% 9%<br />

5 to 9 hours 3% 3%<br />

10 to 19 hours 1% 1%<br />

20 hours 1% 1%<br />

Within the PMA, 68% of the dwellings are owned and 32% are rented. Comparing these percentages to the<br />

Calgary CMA, a higher percentage are owners in the City. Of these owners, the predominant housing type is<br />

single‐detached dwelling.<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Owned<br />

68%<br />

Rented<br />

32%<br />

Owned<br />

74%<br />

Rented<br />

26%<br />

41


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Dwelling Types<br />

Apt [5 storeys]<br />

25%<br />

Single‐detached<br />

52%<br />

Within the PMA the largest percentage of household maintainers are between the ages of 45 to 54 years old and<br />

this percentage is less than the Calgary CMA average. A household maintainer is defined as the person(s) in the<br />

household who pay the majority of the cost associated with the dwelling (i.e. rent or mortgage, taxes and<br />

electricity). The age distribution of household maintainers is equally skewed towards younger age groups.<br />

30%<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

Age of Household Maintainers<br />

under 25 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 years and over<br />

Individuals are classified by Statistics Canada into one of the following three family types:<br />

� Couple Families – Couples living together<br />

� Lone Parent Families – A lone parents with at least one dependent child<br />

� Non‐Family Persons – Single or widowed individuals<br />

PMA<br />

Calgary CMA<br />

The following pie charts outline the percentages of the three seniors’ population cohorts within each family type.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

[65‐74]<br />

[75‐84]<br />

[85+]<br />

Couples<br />

74%<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Non‐family<br />

persons<br />

24%<br />

Couples<br />

56%<br />

Non‐family<br />

persons<br />

40%<br />

Non‐family<br />

persons<br />

66%<br />

Couples<br />

30%<br />

Lone parent<br />

2%<br />

Lone<br />

parent<br />

4%<br />

Lone parent<br />

4%<br />

[65‐74]<br />

[75‐84]<br />

[85+]<br />

Couples<br />

71%<br />

Non‐family<br />

persons<br />

26%<br />

Couples<br />

54%<br />

Non‐<br />

family<br />

persons<br />

42%<br />

Non‐family<br />

persons<br />

67%<br />

Couples<br />

28%<br />

Lone parent<br />

3%<br />

Lone<br />

parent<br />

4%<br />

Lone parent<br />

5%<br />

Among non‐family persons 65+ in the PMA, 84% live alone, 8% live with relatives and 6% are living with non‐<br />

relatives. The percentage of seniors (65+) living alone in the PMA is slightly greater than in the Calgary CMA.<br />

43


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

PMA Calgary CMA<br />

Non‐Relatives<br />

6%<br />

Relatives<br />

8%<br />

Summary<br />

The PMA strengths are:<br />

Alone<br />

86%<br />

� Above average household and seniors’ income<br />

<strong>Living</strong> Alone<br />

77%<br />

Relatives<br />

17%<br />

� PRIZMC2 affluence distribution skewed towards wealthy & upscale and upscale<br />

� Above average levels of higher education for seniors 65+<br />

� A home‐owners’ market<br />

� Low proportion of visible minority groups<br />

� 56% of all immigrants are 3 rd generation<br />

� A greater percentage of seniors living alone than in the Calgary CMA<br />

The PMA weaknesses are:<br />

� Below average growth in total and seniors’ population<br />

Non‐Relatives<br />

6%


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

PRIZMC2 LIFESTYLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS<br />

PRIZMC2 segmentation includes a lifestyle clustering segmentation that groups and describes<br />

neighbourhood clusters across Canada into 66 mutually exclusive clusters. Each cluster is<br />

demographically and behaviourally distinct and offers a wealth of information such a personal lifestyle<br />

preferences, buying patterns, and motivations. The top five overall PRIZMC2 clusters in the PMA are: Suburban<br />

Gentry, Mr. & Ms. Manager, Grads & Pads, Suburban Rows, and Nearly Empty Nests which encompass 42.0% of<br />

the PMA population indicating a low to moderate clustering pattern.<br />

Top Five PRIZMC2 Clusters % of Total<br />

Suburban Gentry 10.0%<br />

Mr. & Ms. Manager 8.8%<br />

Grads & Pads 8.1%<br />

Suburban Rows 7.7%<br />

Nearly Empty Nests 7.4%<br />

Total % 42.0%<br />

Following is a brief description of the people that make up the top 5 clusters:<br />

Suburban Gentry Wealthy, middle‐aged suburban families<br />

The Suburban Gentry segment is a magnet for Canada’s up‐and‐coming business class: a prosperous suburban world of<br />

dual‐income couples who have university degrees and large families, typically with teens or university‐aged children.<br />

Given its high percentage of managers, scientists, artists and government workers, there’s a decided professional tone to<br />

this cluster. Suburban Gentry residents rank near the top for owning computer software, taking business trips and<br />

acquiring a small business loan. These consumers are big spenders who like to belong to golf clubs, gamble at casinos, go<br />

to the theatre and attend pro basketball, tennis and soccer matches. Fitness conscious, they’re much more likely than<br />

average Canadians to jog, take aerobics classes, and play racquet sports and basketball. Many take pride in their healthy<br />

lifestyle, telling researchers, “I feel guilty when I eat ‘junk food.’”<br />

Mr. & Ms. Manager Upscale, dual‐income exurban households<br />

Mr. & Ms. Manager is home to Canada’s working couples living in the exurban sprawl beyond the nation’s largest cities.<br />

The residents of these communities tend to be prosperous executives who like their toys: boats, computers, home theatre<br />

systems and impressive collections of sporting equipment. These families and couples enjoy outdoor activities like golf,<br />

skiing, power boating and canoeing. They don’t mind driving their kids to the zoo, national park or a hockey game as long<br />

as they get time to take in a variety of exhibitions, from crafts and gardening to boats and investments. And though Mr. &<br />

Ms. Manager residents typically commute by car to nearby cities, they enjoy their exurban settings, preferring to go<br />

camping over seeing an opera, and driving a pickup truck rather than owning a sport<br />

sedan.<br />

Grads & Pads Young, lower‐middle‐class urban singles<br />

The nation’s most liberal lifestyle, Grads & Pads is a collection of young, ethnically diverse city dwellers living near<br />

universities. Its residents are a progressive mix of well‐educated singles, students and recent grads, white‐collar<br />

professionals and service workers—all living in apartments a short commute to work by public transit or walking. Their<br />

incomes aren’t high, but these young adults just entering the workforce enjoy the freedom of spending their first<br />

paycheques solely on themselves. With three‐quarters of the adults unattached, Grads & Pads residents are nightowls<br />

who frequent bars, nightclubs, restaurants, rock concerts, art galleries and ballet performances. They like to stay active by<br />

skiing, scuba diving, doing aerobics and working out at health clubs. They’re also political activists who work for social<br />

causes, write to public officials and volunteer for political parties and politicians who support their liberal views.<br />

45


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Suburban Rows Younger, thriving immigrant families<br />

Scattered across the provinces, Suburban Rows is composed of younger, middle‐class immigrant families living in<br />

suburban and urban row houses. More than a quarter of cluster residents are classified visible minorities: 6 percent black, 6<br />

percent South Asian and the rest a mix of Chinese and other nationalities. Despite many having university and college<br />

educations, these newcomers mostly work in service sector jobs, earn average incomes and have low‐key lifestyles. They<br />

have high rates for playing soccer, jogging, swimming and skateboarding. And a big date is taking the kids to a carnival,<br />

video arcade or music festival. They rarely go shopping unless it’s to an outlet mall, but they do manage to acquire the<br />

latest technology, including computers and MP3 players. Admitting that they rarely go to boutiques, gourmet<br />

supermarkets or fancy restaurants, the parents of these growing families say that they don’t need a lot of money to enjoy<br />

life.<br />

Nearly Empty Nests Older suburban couples and families<br />

Nearly Empty Nests is a haven for married couples over 55 years old whose older children either still live at home or have<br />

already flown the coop. Concentrated in several dozen towns, small cities and second‐tier metros of English Canada, these<br />

residents on the cusp of retirement have achieved midscale incomes from years of working at white‐collar and service<br />

sector jobs. With discretionary income from their emptying households, they engage in a wide range of leisure pursuits.<br />

They have high rates for going to casinos, dinner theatres and film festivals, and it’s difficult to find a show they don’t<br />

frequent—whether for boats, pets or travel. For exercise, they enjoy golf, curling, gardening and aerobics. They have<br />

enough money to travel the world, but they make sure their investments are sufficiently funded for the future. Many are<br />

price‐sensitive consumers with a fondness for second‐hand stores, loyalty programs and warehouse clubs.<br />

Top Five PRIZM Clusters


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

PrizmC2 Clusters<br />

For further analysis we have analyzed both senior and influence clusters in the PMA. <strong>Senior</strong> clusters are those<br />

clusters that have above average number of seniors 75 years of age and older. Influencer clusters are clusters<br />

which have an above average percentage of persons 45 to 64 years old.<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s clusters comprise 10.3% of the total market area population and influencer clusters represent 25.6% of<br />

the total market area population. We therefore classify the market as an influencers market.<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s Clusters<br />

Following are the clusters considered to be seniors and the percentage of the population in those categories.<br />

Top Three PRIZMC2 <strong>Senior</strong> Clusters % of Total<br />

Nearly Empty Nests 7.4%<br />

Grey Pride 2.7%<br />

Simple Pleasures 0.2%<br />

Total % 10.3%<br />

Residents of Nearly Empty Nests are Reprioritizing Work as they head toward retirement, and these older<br />

Canadians feel little Financial Concern Regarding the Future. They are reflecting more and more on the Legacy they<br />

will leave behind for their heirs. Making an Effort for Health, they try to keep themselves fit by eating well and<br />

getting plenty of exercise. At the same time, Canadian Identity is important for Nearly Empty Nests residents—<br />

but national pride does not carry racial baggage for these folks. They are comfortable with ethno‐cultural mixing,<br />

scoring high on Cultural Fusion and Social Learning. Perhaps feeling more vulnerable as they age, residents of<br />

Nearly Empty Nests are sensitive to crime and aggression in society, scoring high on Fear of Violence. But as they<br />

adjust to newly childless lives, they are keeping up their Community Involvement.<br />

Having gained perspective since entering retirement, Grey Pride residents want to interact with their world as<br />

they contemplate their Legacy. These Canadians, who are proud not only of their age but also their Canadian<br />

Identity, like exploring the diversity around them (Cultural Fusion) and learning from people different from<br />

themselves (Social Learning). They think Ethnic Intolerance at any age is unacceptable. They are also concerned<br />

about their generation’s ecological legacy, registering high Global Ecological Awareness and pursuing Ethical<br />

Consumerism whenever possible. While they may be adventurous socially, they are cautious in their financial<br />

outlook; they score above average on Financial Concern Regarding the Future, wondering whether their retirement<br />

savings will hold out. However, they believe that poverty and inequality are inevitable in society (Social<br />

Darwinism), and with a low sense of New Social Responsibility, few make meaningful efforts to help those in need.<br />

Members of Grey Pride have a low Need for Status Recognition, caring little for the approval of others. However,<br />

when shopping, these consumers prefer pleasing styles and designs (Importance of Aesthetics) and brands that<br />

have stood the test of time (Brand Genuineness).<br />

47


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Simple Pleasures residents are conservative, involved members of communities concentrated in small,<br />

homogeneous towns and cities. They feel a strong sense of Regional Identity as well as patriotism (Canadian<br />

Identity), but this identification does not extend any further: Simple Pleasures residents say they do not feel a<br />

sense of Belonging to the Global Village. The small communities in which they live provide a refuge from what they<br />

see as the social ills afflicting society in general and big cities in particular. Weak on Flexible Definition of Family<br />

and Sexual Permissiveness, these Canadians are alarmed by the erosion of the nuclear family‐based social and<br />

moral world in which they were raised. Strong on Religiosity, Simple Pleasures residents find meaning and order<br />

through traditional channels. Many feel powerless to influence the direction of their lives (high Fatalism). Their<br />

Technological Anxiety hints further at their sense of being out of step with progressive society. And as consumers,<br />

their low Need for Status Recognition means that they focus on getting the best value from their purchases while<br />

avoiding things they don’t really need (Discriminating Consumerism).


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Influencer Clusters<br />

Following are the clusters considered to be influencers and the percentage of the population in those categories.<br />

Top Three PRIZMC2 Influencer Clusters % of Total<br />

Suburban Gentry 10.0%<br />

Mr. & Ms. Manager 8.8%<br />

Urbane Villagers 6.7%<br />

TOTAL 25.6%<br />

Suburban Gentry residents have achieved affluence through diligent effort, but their low score on the value<br />

Fulfillment Through Work suggests that these Canadians view work as a job, not a passion. Even though this<br />

segment features above‐average levels of small business ownership, Suburban Gentry residents have low<br />

Confidence in Small Business and high Confidence in Big Business—perhaps indicating a hope that their small<br />

operations will make it big one day. These Canadians believe it is up to them to build their own futures (Control of<br />

Destiny), and their concern for the Legacy they will leave behind also spurs them to succeed. Suburban Gentry<br />

residents harbour few prejudices about characteristics like race, age and gender: they score high on Cultural<br />

Fusion, Equal Relationship with Youth and Equality of the Sexes. This cluster also has a green streak, with high<br />

scores on Global Ecological Awareness. Although these consumers are careful in how they spend their money<br />

(Discriminating Consumerism), they enjoy products with distinctive design (Importance of Aesthetics).<br />

Mr. & Ms. Manager is a cluster of people who are financially comfortable and down‐to‐earth. Weak on Need for<br />

Status Recognition, these Canadians are not desperate to show others that they’ve made it. They are also weak on<br />

Concern for Appearance, suggesting they are not overly preoccupied with how they look. Yet their strong<br />

Importance of Aesthetics shows that they appreciate distinctive design in the areas that matter to them most<br />

(Consumptivity). With high scores on Primacy of the Family, these Canadians would rather be home with their kids<br />

than shopping for glitzy goods. Strong on Meaning of Life and Religiosity, this cluster seeks spiritual satisfaction<br />

through relatively traditional channels but is not entirely traditional in its outlook. Since many households in this<br />

segment contain two working parents, it is not surprising that Mr. & Ms. Manager residents are strong on Equality<br />

of the Sexes: at home, it’s all hands on deck (with men doing as much tidying and taxi duty as women), and at<br />

work, both partners have a stake in Ms. Manager earning appropriate compensation. Clearly, this cluster’s<br />

pragmatism extends from their clothes and spending habits to their attitudes on social issues.<br />

Members of Urbane Villagers are at ease in the world. Scoring high on Adaptability to Complexity and Adaptive<br />

Navigation, these Canadians are not afraid of change: they relish it. They are open to—not threatened by—the<br />

world beyond Canada, registering high scores on Belonging to the Global Village. They also score high on the value<br />

Cultural Fusion, suggesting that they see the mixing of people from different backgrounds as enriching, not<br />

damaging. Consistent with their openness to change, Urbane Villagers residents do not feel bound by their own<br />

past or background. They are unenthusiastic about exploring the history of their family or ethnic group (scoring<br />

low on Search for Roots) and feel no great sense of identification with the region where they live. Rather than<br />

being defined by their family heritage, Urbane Villagers, with high scores on Control of Destiny, feel that they as<br />

individuals determine their fate. Despite their affluence, Urbane Villagers households are prudent with their<br />

money, scoring above average on Saving on Principle (a value which is borne out in their high savings rates). For<br />

Urbane Villagers residents, the ability to embrace change rests on a foundation of financial security.<br />

49


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Long Term Care<br />

MARKET SUPPLY ANALYSIS<br />

There are two [2] Long Term Care [LTC] properties with a total of 305 beds in the PMA. The population 75+ is<br />

currently estimated at 10,968 which equates to a beds/population ratio of 28 beds/1,000 persons. As reference,<br />

government health departments across Canada typically aim to provide a LTC ratio of 100 beds/1,000 seniors 75+.<br />

Existing Retirement Homes<br />

Long Term Care<br />

Property Name Beds<br />

Beverly Centre ‐ Glenmore 212<br />

Mount Royal Care Centre 93<br />

Total 305<br />

There are currently seven (7) retirement residences with a total of 1,063 units in the PMA. The market capture rate<br />

represents the percentage of seniors in the PMA that are currently residing in a retirement residence. Given<br />

current occupancy levels and second occupants in the market, it is estimated that 9.2% of the seniors’ population<br />

over 75 years are currently captured in the existing supply. The PMA capture rate is above the Province of Alberta<br />

capture rate.<br />

Proposed <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing Properties<br />

Retirement Residences<br />

Property Name Units<br />

Manor Village at Garrison Woods 136<br />

Trinity Lodge Retirement Community 214<br />

Chateau Renoir 150<br />

Fountains of Mission 96<br />

StayWell Manor Village at Garrison Woods 170<br />

Lake Bonavista Village 197<br />

Roulea Manor 100<br />

Total 1,063<br />

Our analysis of new seniors’ housing developments in the PMA is separated into two categories, proposed and<br />

potential developments. We define proposed projects as those projects where a site plan has been submitted.<br />

Potential projects are those that are going through subdivision or zoning and yet to have zoning approval or a site<br />

plan submitted. We include proposed projects in our analysis as these projects should come to fruition. Potential<br />

developments are not included in our demand analysis as these developments are still in the initial stage and have<br />

no finalized plans.<br />

Within the PMA, we are not aware of any proposed or potential retirement residence developments.<br />

51


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Retirement Residences in the PMA<br />

The following tables summarize and evaluate retirement residence supply in the PMA. Factors of evaluation<br />

include location, rental rates, service offering, physical plant, unit mix and reputation. This evaluation leads to a<br />

market weighting which represents the competitors’ relative strength or “competitiveness” in the market.<br />

Existing Supply in PMA<br />

Studio One Bedroom<br />

Two Bedroom<br />

Residence Monthly Rent Unit Size Monthly Rent Unit Size Monthly Rent Unit Size<br />

Manor Village at Garrison Woods ‐ ‐ $3,175 816‐864 $4,195 ‐ $4,595 1030‐1279<br />

Trinity Lodge Retirement Community $2,075 ‐ $3,265 265‐560 $2,965 ‐ $3,750 520‐650 ‐ ‐<br />

Chateau Renoir $2,495 ‐ $3,425 353‐484 $3,150 ‐ $4,905 527‐651 $3,825 ‐ $5,610 745‐1054<br />

Fountains of Mission $2,029 ‐ $2,933 457‐497 $3,215 ‐ $4,037 664‐710 $4,145 808<br />

StayWell Manor Village at Garrison Woods ‐ ‐ $3,560 587 $4,595 ‐ $6,255 977<br />

Lake Bonavista Village $2,650 335‐565 $3,190 ‐ $3,700 498‐751 $4,469 ‐ $5,100 634‐1164


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

As anticipated, existing supply in the PMA would not be competitive with Milliken’s proposed AL/ALZ<br />

development. They are all independent service living [ISL] platforms, some with AL services and “light” ALZ care.<br />

For the most part, AL is provided through homecare which is supplied by an approved provider in the home. The<br />

other source of care is through Designated Assisted <strong>Living</strong> [DAL] and Extended DAL [EDAL]. Based on our<br />

research of the Calgary market, the subject property will be the first of its kind.<br />

The only other provider of a freestanding, high end AL/ALZ model in Canada is Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong>. They<br />

operate 9 mansions in Ontario [8 in the GTA], 3 in BC and 3 in Quebec. Of noted significance, prior to taking their<br />

Canadian REIT private in 2006, Sunrise was actively pursuing sites in Calgary to develop a mansion style AL/ALZ<br />

residence. The properties are now owned by Ventas REIT [US based] who is not a developer of homes.<br />

Competitive Models<br />

For the purpose of analysis, we have reviewed and analysed rental rates at two Sunrise residences, one in Ontario<br />

and the other in BC. It is our understanding from the Executive Directors that pricing varies somewhat by location<br />

within those provincial markets but is generally representative of their overall pricing structure. Notwithstanding,<br />

the price points in BC are generally higher, particularly on the ALZ floor.<br />

The following table summarizes the base rental rates [before additional care levels].<br />

Studio<br />

Assisted <strong>Living</strong> [AL]<br />

Denver/Seymour Two Room<br />

Private Shared Private Shared Private<br />

Thorne Mill $4,867 $3,772 $6,175 $4,198 $6,692<br />

Vaughan, ON<br />

Lynn Valley<br />

North Van, BC<br />

$5,232 $3,833 $6,266 $4,258 $6,692<br />

Memory Care [ALZ]<br />

Studio<br />

Denver/Seymour Two Room<br />

Private Shared Private Shared Private<br />

Thorne Mill $6,053 $4,593 $6,874 $5,323 $7,330<br />

Vaughan, ON<br />

Lynn Valley $6,935 $4,684 $7,330 $5,790 $7,950<br />

North Van, BC<br />

As noted above, these rates represent the base package without additional care. The base fee in ALZ is higher<br />

because it includes medication management fees, about 30 minutes of care per day and additional personalized<br />

programming support. For each additional hour of care, the fee is $30 per day in Ontario and $34 per day in BC,<br />

equating to between approximately $900 and $1,000 per month. The amount of additional care provided is not<br />

limited, although there are limits to the type of end care required.<br />

53


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

In addition to our rent review, discussion was held with the former operations manager for Sunrise and Executive<br />

Directors at several Sunrise residences in Ontario and BC. It is evident from our conversations that the demand for<br />

high end AL and ALZ accommodations is strong and is supported by the high occupancy levels at the established<br />

Sunrise homes. Of note, both of the buildings surveyed for this report are fully occupied. Moreover, the North<br />

Vancouver home has a long waiting list while the Vaughan building leased up in only 3 years [241 suites].<br />

In addition to Sunrise, we have research AL rates at two other upscale retirement residences in high end<br />

neighbourhoods in BC. While permit [and have] residents with onset dementia, they are not staffed or equipped<br />

for later stages. Notwithstanding, the rental rates are indicative of this quality of private pay accommodation.<br />

Based on our investigations and analysis of similar quality AL and AL/ALZ properties in major markets across<br />

Canada, it is our opinion that the average rates proposed by the developer are reasonable and achievable in this<br />

location, assuming the quality of construction and service offering are comparable to these competitors.<br />

Staffing<br />

Assisted <strong>Living</strong><br />

Studio One Bedroom<br />

Year Built Size Rent Size Rent<br />

Amica 2006 375 ‐ 470 $4900 ‐ $5000 525 ‐ 695 $6,200<br />

West Van, BC<br />

Hollyburn House<br />

West Van, BC<br />

1986 260 ‐ 405 $4,500 ‐ $6,000 n/a n/a<br />

In addition to the rental rate analysis, we have been provided with the developers initial estimates of FTE’s [Full<br />

Time Equivalents] for the various departments and asked to verify the assumptions. As already noted, the<br />

freestanding, private pay AL/ALZ model is not common in the Canadian market so industry benchmarks don’t<br />

exist. Accordingly, we have relied on data from a US publication called 2009 Overview of Assisted <strong>Living</strong> which<br />

was a collaborative research project by several national industry related associations.<br />

The following chart summarizes the total mean and median number of FTEs for AL properties in the US. The<br />

figures do not distinguish between AL and AL/ALZ care. However, both types are included.<br />

FTE by Property Type<br />

2009 Overview of Assisted <strong>Living</strong><br />

Type Mean Median<br />

IL / AL 22.9 18.5<br />

AL / ALZ 21.5 19.0<br />

AL / ALZ 41.4 38.5


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

The follow chart breaks down the FTEs by department.<br />

Although the residential care department is not broken down in the US stats and some categories differ, it is quite<br />

evident that the developer’s totals are generally consistent with industry averages.<br />

Operating Margins<br />

2009 Overview of SL<br />

Department Milliken Mean Median<br />

Administrative 4.00 3.20 3.00<br />

Dietary 4.60 7.20 4.50<br />

Housekeeping 2.25 2.80 2.00<br />

Activities 2.00 2.10 1.50<br />

Maintenance 1.00 1.30 1.00<br />

Marketing<br />

Professional Staff<br />

2.40 1.30 1.00<br />

RN 1.00 1.40 1.00<br />

LPN 3.30 2.60 2.00<br />

Therapists 2.00 2.00<br />

Social Worker<br />

Resident Care<br />

0.80 1.00<br />

AL Coordinator 1.00<br />

ALZ Coordinator 1.00<br />

Care Manager AL 7.90<br />

Care Manager ALZ 11.30 22.80 20.00<br />

Other 1.40 1.00<br />

41.75 41.40 38.50<br />

With respect to overall operating margins, we again turn to statistics readily available in the US regarding AL and<br />

ALZ properties. The 2010 State of <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing publishes operating margins for combined AL/ALZ properties<br />

and breaks it down by number of size [number of units] and age.<br />

Expense Ratios<br />

State of <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing 2010<br />

Lower Quartile Median Upper Quartile<br />

> 40 beds 68.3% 67.3% 61.5%<br />

2 < 10 years 69.2% 67.8% 61.8%<br />

The reader is advised that ratios will vary depending upon size, service provision and level of acuity.<br />

Notwithstanding, the indicated benchmark ratios for size and age are consistent, with the median at<br />

approximately 67.5%. In our experience, the lower ratios are typical of newer and larger buildings similar to the<br />

Milliken proposal. Of noted significance, the optimal size for a standalone AL/ALZ residence today is generally<br />

between 80 and 100 beds.<br />

55


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Again, in reference to the Canadian context, we can look to the Sunrise model for guidance. In our experience<br />

appraising their Canadian assets over the years, we have consistently found that overall expense ratios range<br />

between approximately 60% and 65% at stabilized occupancy. This benchmark range was confirmed in recent<br />

discussions with Sunrise senior management.<br />

“Weighting” the PMA Supply<br />

In order to determine competitive supply in a given market, it is necessary to identify to what degree these<br />

properties would compete with a new state‐of‐the‐art development (comparable to an upscale Miliken<br />

Development offering) in the PMA. To that end, we apply the supply weighting method which is largely based on<br />

proximity, quality and, most importantly, pricing structure.<br />

Based on our research and analysis, there is no existing supply in the PMA that would compete with the subject<br />

service offering at the upper end price point.<br />

The following chart summarizes our analysis of the supply.<br />

Existing Supply Year Built Units Weighting Net Units<br />

Manor Village at Garrison Woods 2002 136 0% 0<br />

Trinity Lodge Retirement Community 1974 214 0% 0<br />

Chateau Renoir 1988 150 0% 0<br />

Fountains of Mission 2002 96 0% 0<br />

StayWell Manor Village at Garrison Woods 2004 170 0% 0<br />

Lake Bonavista Village 2001 197 0% 0<br />

Total 963 0% 0<br />

Proposed Supply<br />

Subject Property 73 100% 73<br />

Total weighted units 73<br />

Demand Analysis<br />

Our demand analysis begins with the seniors’ population 75+ in the PMA. The average age of retirement residents<br />

in the Canadian market is in the mid 80’s, however there are still a number of residents who are in their 70’s and to<br />

sometimes even younger. Given the more independent nature of the proposed development we have included<br />

the population 75 years of age and older. From the initial seniors’ population we use a number of market qualifiers<br />

to eliminate certain portions of the population. These qualifiers are: long term care, family type, need and income.<br />

Assumptions used in the demand analysis include:<br />

� 10% of the seniors’ population 75+ in LTC<br />

� 20% demand from seniors’ couples<br />

� Income qualification based on incomes > $84,000 per annum<br />

� Minimum dwelling value in the market area of $750,000<br />

In the PMA the current seniors’ population 75+ is estimated to be 10,968 persons.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Impact of Long Term Care<br />

The need for long‐term care beds has been observed in major markets across Canada and the US at<br />

approximately 100 beds per thousand seniors (75 years old or older). Therefore, we have subtracted 10% of the<br />

seniors’ population (75+) from the total seniors’ population to capture those who would reside or be eligible for<br />

funded long term care, resulting in a seniors’ population of 9,871.<br />

Qualification by Family Type<br />

Based on our research and findings for retirement homes across North America, it is our opinion that the market<br />

for couples in retirement homes is limited. Generally, the percentage of couples is higher for the more<br />

independent projects and considerably lower for assisted living homes. In view of the type of accommodation<br />

provided by the subject facility, we have included 20% of couple families and 100% of singles or non‐family<br />

persons as follows:<br />

Family Types<br />

Couples and Others Singles<br />

75 ‐ 84 years 4,307 60% 2,865 40%<br />

85+ years 934 35% 1,765 65%<br />

Subtotal 5,242 persons 4,630<br />

Demand Rate for Retirement Units 20% 100%<br />

Subtotal Demand 75 ‐ 84 years<br />

3,296<br />

Subtotal Demand 85+ years<br />

1,858<br />

Total Demand by Family Type<br />

5,154<br />

Accordingly, there are 5,154 seniors who are family type qualified.<br />

Qualification by Income<br />

We have based our income qualification on incomes of greater than $84,000 per annum, reflecting an average<br />

room rate charge of $7,000 per month. Although the average rent per unit will be less, the intention is to capture<br />

residents that make up the very upper end of the AL market.<br />

A study completed in 1999 by the Assisted <strong>Living</strong> Federation of America [ALFA] indicated that seniors typically<br />

spend up to 75% of their income on rent at a retirement residence. Furthermore, a study called “National Survey of<br />

Assisted <strong>Living</strong> Residents: Who is the Customer?” indicated that 64% of residents will actually spend 100% or more<br />

of their income. Logically, this suggests that they are either eroding their capital base or are receiving assistance<br />

from a family member. Based on these studies, we have bracketed our fee to income ratio at 90%. The 90% ratio<br />

contends that 35% of seniors are spending 75% of there income on retirement rent and 65% are spending 100% of<br />

income on rent.<br />

Assuming fee to income ratios of 90%, the annual income required to reside in the subject property increases to<br />

$93,333 per annum.<br />

57


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

It is acknowledged that approximately 75% of seniors are home‐owners and are typically mortgage‐free. Based on<br />

an analysis of recent statistics from the Calgary Real Estate Board, we have estimated that the minimum value of<br />

a dwelling in the PMA for this clientele is $750,000. Assuming this minimum amount is converted to cash and<br />

invested at an overall annual return 5.0%, it would yield additional income of $37,500 per annum. Alternatively,<br />

we assume that most seniors have other assets such as stock and/or bonds that could be converted to interest‐<br />

bearing assets. It is also important to note that there is no reliable data on the actual wealth of seniors in any given<br />

area. Hence the value of their home is generally accepted as a proxy of their wealth.<br />

Accounting for the proceeds from the sale of their house, the net income required is reduced to $55,833. A<br />

summary of the income qualification calculations is as follows:<br />

There are 771 seniors who are family type and income qualified.<br />

Qualification by Need<br />

Monthly Fee $7,000<br />

Annual Fee $84,000<br />

Fee to Income Ratio 90%<br />

Required Annual Income $93,333<br />

Average House Value $750,000<br />

Interest Income on Investments [sale of home] $37,500<br />

Net Income Required $55,833<br />

% of <strong>Senior</strong>s with qualifying income 75+ 15.0%<br />

Subtotal Demand 75 ‐ 84 years 493<br />

Subtotal Demand 85+ years 278<br />

Income Qualified Demand 771<br />

In order to estimate the market demand for the subject property, we have relied on US data from the National<br />

Long Term Care Survey [2004/2005] prepared by the National Institute on Aging [NIA] in conjunction with Duke<br />

University’s Center for Demographic Studies, the US Bureau of the Census, the Department of Health and Human<br />

Services [Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation] and the Research Triangle Institute [RTI].<br />

This study represents research from 1982 to 2004/2005 and estimates the demand for instrumental activities of<br />

daily living [IADL including cooking and cleaning] and activities of daily living [ADL including bathing, grooming,<br />

dressing, etc] for retirement and assisted living communities.<br />

Although Canadian frailty data for seniors exists, we have elected to utilize the American data because it has been<br />

extensively researched and reflects the seniors who currently reside in independent and assisted living facilities in<br />

the US and incorporates their IADLs and ADLs limitations. While the Canadian data generally indicates that<br />

seniors with frailties range from 20% to 45% of the 75+ year old population, the US data distinguishes between<br />

the 65 to 74, 75 to 84 year olds and 85+ year olds and applies different rates of need to each age cohort. As the<br />

average age of a typical retirement resident is in excess of 80 years, this separation of need ratios by age is critical<br />

and without which the estimated market demand may be dramatically overstated.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

For an AL/ALZ model, research determined the demand to be approximately 25% for the 75 to 84 year age cohort<br />

and 50% for the 85 years old and older cohort. The qualification by need may be summarized as follows:<br />

Based on our modelling, the potential market demand for an AL/ALZ retirement residence is 262 units,<br />

representing 2.4% of the seniors’ population over 75 years of age.<br />

New Supply by Price Range<br />

Of noted significance, the proposal calls for average rents of $5,000 per month for AL and $7,000 per month for<br />

ALZ. We have based our analysis on the upper rent range for certainty since affordability is a key factor in the<br />

analysis and worth erring on the high side. Nevertheless, the following table captures family type, income and<br />

need qualified demand at price points starting at $5,000 per month.<br />

Based on an analysis of incomes at various price ranges, it appears that support is fairly evenly spread along the<br />

rental range. More importantly, it clearly demonstrates that affordability will not be a factor in the upper price<br />

ranges [above $7,000 per month].<br />

Demand Coverage Ratio<br />

Cohort % of Pop Demand<br />

75 ‐ 84 years 25.0% 123<br />

85+ years 50.0% 139<br />

Total Demand by Need 262<br />

Total Demand Percentage<br />

Rental Range Demand in Range of Total<br />

$5,000 ‐ $6,000 791 309 39%<br />

$6,001 ‐ $7,000 482 220 28%<br />

$7,001 + 262 262 33%<br />

Totals 791 100%<br />

The Demand Coverage Ratio [DCR] is an important indicator in determining whether or not a market exists<br />

because it measures the relationship between demand and supply in the PMA. It is calculated by dividing qualified<br />

demand by net supply. Net supply considers the number of market weighted units as well as the percentage of<br />

the residences that will be captured from within the PMA. This accounts for residents that move into the<br />

retirement homes from outside the area. In our experience, and based on the ALFA studies in the USA, retirement<br />

homes are expected to capture between 50% and 75% of their residents from the defined PMA. The remaining<br />

30% to 50% relocate from areas outside the PMA. Often these seniors are relocating to be close to adult children<br />

and/or their families (influencers).<br />

In our opinion and experience, the capture rate for a high end AL/ALZ residence would be at the upper range,<br />

meaning 75% of the residents will come from the defined PMA.<br />

59


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

For a market to be in equilibrium, it should have a DCR of at least 2.0 for an AL/ALZ offering. Stated another way,<br />

there must be at least two income/need qualified seniors 75+ in a PMA for every retirement home suite to be in<br />

equilibrium. Therefore, a development opportunity exists where the DCR remains above 2.0 after the inclusion of<br />

the proposed property into the DCR equation. In our experience, this 2:1 ratio is a reliable guideline in the vast<br />

majority of cases, although not without exceptions.<br />

Supply & Demand<br />

The PMA contains a total of 963 retirement units in six (6) private pay residences and currently captures<br />

approximately 8.8% of the seniors’ population. Based on our analysis of the existing supply, we estimate that<br />

none of these units would be competitive to the proposed residence by Milliken Developments.<br />

To estimate market demand, our model measured family types, income levels and frailty in the seniors’<br />

population. Based on our modelling and analysis, it is our opinion that the potential demand in the PMA for the<br />

subject property is for approximately 262 units.<br />

DCR Conclusion<br />

The demand coverage ratio measures the relationship between market demand and competitive supply in the<br />

PMA. We contend that a market is in equilibrium [market demand = competitive supply] when the DCR is<br />

approximately 2.0. In other words, a market is considered in equilibrium when there are two [age/income/need]<br />

qualified seniors for every one unit of supply.<br />

As determined in our rental analysis, there is no “competitive supply” in the PMA at the targeted price point<br />

[$7,000 per month] or service platform. Therefore, total supply in the PMA will be the proposed 73 units. As noted<br />

earlier, our model presumes that only 75% of the total demand originates from the PMA. Therefore, the net<br />

supply in the PMA is 55 units (73x 750%).<br />

Therefore, with the proposed subject units, the DCR would equate to 4.8 indicating that the market could absorb<br />

the new supply. Based on our population forecast (Environics Analytics), the DCR will rise to 5.2 by 2015 barring<br />

another change to the supply.<br />

Conclusions<br />

Year 2010 2013 2015<br />

<strong>Senior</strong>s (75+) Population 10,968 11,205 11,370<br />

Qualified Demand 262 276 285<br />

Net Supply in PMA 55 55 55<br />

Demand Coverage Ratio 4.8 5.0 5.2<br />

Based on investigations and analysis carried out, we concluded that the proposed freestanding, high end,<br />

boutique‐style seniors’ residence with an AL and ALZ service platform is feasible at the proposed location in<br />

southwest Calgary. Our feasibility analysis confirmed that the rental rates are sustainable and reasonable in<br />

comparison with other similar operations in the country.


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

We, the undersigned appraisers, hereby certify that:<br />

CERTIFICATION<br />

1. To the best of our knowledge and belief, statements of fact contained in this report, the analysis,<br />

opinions and conclusions expressed herein are true and correct.<br />

2. The analysis, opinions and conclusions presented are limited by the general and specific assumptions and<br />

limiting conditions contained in this report.<br />

3. We have no past, present or contemplated interest in the issue that is the subject of this report, nor<br />

personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.<br />

4. Compensation was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined results from the<br />

analyses, opinions, or conclusions in this report.<br />

5. My analyses, opinions, and conclusion have been made in accordance with the requirements of the<br />

Canadian Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice of the Appraisal Institute of Canada.<br />

6. We have the knowledge and experience to compete the assignment competently.<br />

7. The use of this report is subject to the requirements of the Appraisal Institute of Canada relating to<br />

review by their duly authorized representatives.<br />

8. Stephen Hiscox and Milan Pejcic prepared the descriptive data sections of this report. No other person<br />

provided professional assistance with this report.<br />

9. As of the date of this report, the author has completed the requirements of the Continuing Professional<br />

Development program of the Appraisal Institute.<br />

Stephen Hiscox, AACI, P.App<br />

<strong>Senior</strong> Director<br />

61


4904 ‐ 4920 Elbow Drive, Calgary, AB<br />

Milliken Developments<br />

October 28, 2010<br />

Employment<br />

QUALIFICATIONS<br />

STEPHEN E. HISCOX, AACI, PApp<br />

1985 ‐ 1992 ReMax Central Realty Inc. ‐ Appraisal Division ‐ Appraiser<br />

1992 ‐ 1996 Howard Hiscox & Associates Inc. ‐ Appraiser<br />

1996 Accredited Appraiser Canadian Institute (AACI)<br />

1996 ‐ 2004 Howard Hiscox & Associates Inc. ‐ <strong>Senior</strong> Appraiser<br />

2004 – 2006 HealthTrust Canada ULC – <strong>Senior</strong> Partner<br />

2006 ‐ 2008 TD Securities – VP and Director<br />

2008 ‐ Present <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd – <strong>Senior</strong> Director<br />

Since joining the Appraisal Institute in 1985, Mr. Hiscox has prepared appraisals on a full range of residential and<br />

commercial properties including single family dwellings, condominiums, rental apartment buildings, mixed‐use<br />

buildings, office buildings, retail structures and golf courses. These appraisals have been prepared purchase and<br />

sale, mortgage financing, litigation, estate settlement lease arbitration and other functions. After completing all<br />

the education requirements for accreditation with the Appraisal Institute, together with 10 years practical<br />

experience in appraising real estate, Mr. Hiscox obtained his AACI designation in May of 1996.<br />

The focus of his work since 1997 years has been senior housing and health care facilities. The specialized service<br />

niche was created to satisfy the ever‐increasing demand for reliable and well‐documented seniors’ housing<br />

appraisals. To date he has directly or indirectly participated in the appraisal of approximately 600 retirement and<br />

nursing home facilities. Assignments have been completed in most provinces in Canada, including British<br />

Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.<br />

In 2006, Stephen joined TD Securities to help develop the seniors housing brokerage with John O’Bryan. During<br />

his two years with TD, Stephen participated in the sale of over $2 billion of seniors housing assets giving him an<br />

insight into transactions from both purchasers and vendors perspectives. Stephen has recently returned to the<br />

consulting business, joining <strong>Altus</strong> Group Ltd, in October 2008.<br />

He has given several presentations on the <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing industry to major Canadian banks and Canada<br />

Mortgage and Housing and conducted seminars for the Ontario Residential Care Association (ORCA) and Ontario<br />

Chapter of the Appraisal Institute of Canada.<br />

Corporate/Institutional Clients Served [Partial List]<br />

Revera Chartwell <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing REIT Maestro<br />

TD Bank CIBC BMO<br />

Royal Bank HSBC Scotia Capital<br />

Amica Mature Lifestyles Sunrise <strong>Senior</strong> <strong>Living</strong> All <strong>Senior</strong>s Care<br />

Leisureworld Holiday Retirement Corporation Ontario Teachers Pension Plan<br />

Retirement Life Communities Origin Retirement Communities Baybridge <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing<br />

Specialty Care Kingsway Arms Management CMHC<br />

BMO Reichmann <strong>Senior</strong>s Housing Devco DCMS Realty Group<br />

Carlisle Capital Structures Diversicare Management Extendicare REIT

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