Climate change projections and impacts on runoff for Tasmania

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong>
<strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project
Report two of seven to the Australian Government
December 2009

About the project
Following the November 2006 Summit on the southern
Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), the then Prime Minister <strong>and</strong> MDB state
Premiers commissioned CSIRO to undertake an assessment of sustainable
yields of surface water <strong>and</strong> groundwater systems within the MDB.
The project set an international benchmark for rigorous <strong>and</strong> detailed
basin-scale assessment of the anticipated <strong>impacts</strong> of climate <strong>change</strong>,
catchment development <strong>and</strong> increasing groundwater extraction on the
availability <strong>and</strong> use of water resources.
On 26 March 2008, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG)
agreed to exp<strong>and</strong> the CSIRO assessments of sustainable yield so that, for
the first time, Australia would have a comprehensive scientific assessment
of water yield in all major water systems across the country. This would
allow a consistent analytical framework for water policy decisions across
the nation. The CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, together with
allied projects for northern Australia <strong>and</strong> south-west Western Australia,
provides a nation-wide expansion of the assessments.
In Tasmania, neither surface water nor groundwater extractions
are metered in a consistent way. Consequently it was necessary to
model the movement <strong>and</strong> use of water within the project area using a
comprehensive suite of river models. For groundwater, three models
covering key groundwater areas were also used. Flow stress rankings
were used to determine the potential ecological <strong>impacts</strong> of <strong>change</strong>s in
streamflow on subcatchments <strong>and</strong> key ecological sites (150 sites were
selected comprising all Ramsar wetl<strong>and</strong>s, estuaries with high conservation
value, <strong>and</strong> river sites <strong>and</strong> riverine wetl<strong>and</strong>s with high conservation value
currently impacted by local extractions of water).
Reporting of the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project is covered
by a range of products including a suite of region reports (of which this is
one) <strong>and</strong> a suite of technical reports. There are seven region reports:
1. Water availability for Tasmania
2. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
3. Water availability for the Arthur-Inglis-Cam region
4. Water availability for the Mersey-Forth region
5. Water availability for the Pipers-Ringarooma region
6. Water availability for the South Esk region
7. Water availability for the Derwent-South East region
For citation details of these reports see the back cover of this report <strong>and</strong>
for a full list of the technical reports see the inside back cover.
Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project disclaimers
Derived from or contains data <strong>and</strong>/or software provided
by the Organisations. The Organisations give no warranty
in relation to the data <strong>and</strong>/or software they provided
(including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency
or suitability) <strong>and</strong> accept no liability (including without
limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or
costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use
or reliance on the data or software (including any material
derived from that data or software). Data must not be used
for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.
Organisations include: the Tasmanian Department of Primary
Industries, Parks, Water, <strong>and</strong> Environment; Hydro Tasmania
Consulting; Sinclair Knight Merz; Aquaterra Consulting;
Antarctic <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> Ecosystems CRC; Tasmanian Irrigation
Development Board; Private Forests Tasmania; <strong>and</strong> the
Queensl<strong>and</strong> Department of Environment <strong>and</strong> Resource
Management.
Data on proposed irrigation developments were supplied by
the Tasmanian Irrigation Development Board in June 2009.
Data on projected increases in commercial forest plantations
were provided by Private Forests Tasmania in February 2009.
CSIRO advises that the information contained in this
publication comprises general statements based on scientific
research. The reader is advised <strong>and</strong> needs to be aware
that such information may be incomplete or unable to be
used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must
therefore be made on that information without seeking prior
expert professional, scientific <strong>and</strong> technical advice. To the
extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees
<strong>and</strong> consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any
consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages,
costs, expenses <strong>and</strong> any other compensation, arising directly
or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole)
<strong>and</strong> any information or material contained in it. Data is
assumed to be correct as received from the Organisations.
Contents
Introduction 1
Project overview 1
Scenarios assessed 1
Project regions 1
Key findings 2
Under historical climate (1924 to 2007) 2
Under recent climate (1997 to 2007) 2
Under future climate ~2030 3
Under future development ~2030 3
Tasmania – an isl<strong>and</strong> setting 4
Biophysical facts <strong>and</strong> figures 4
Population <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use 5
<strong>Climate</strong> 6
Historical climate 6
Recent climate 8
Future climate 9
Runoff 12
Runoff under historical climate 12
Runoff under recent climate 13
Runoff under future climate 14
Runoff under future development 16
Citation
CSIRO (2009) <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on
runoff for Tasmania. Report two of seven to the Australian
Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields
Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship,
Australia.
Publication Details
Published by CSIRO © 2009 all rights reserved. This work
is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the
Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any
process without prior written permission from CSIRO.
ISSN 1835-095X
Photos courtesy of: CSIRO <strong>and</strong> DPIPWE.
Cover: Huntsman Lake behind Me<strong>and</strong>er Dam (CSIRO)

Introduction
This report is one in a series* from the
CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project.
The terms of reference for the project
required an assessment of the current <strong>and</strong>
likely future extent <strong>and</strong> variability of surface
water <strong>and</strong> groundwater resources in Tasmania.
This information will help governments,
industry <strong>and</strong> communities consider the
environmental, social <strong>and</strong> economic aspects
of the sustainable use <strong>and</strong> management of
the precious water assets of Tasmania.
For the first time, the <strong>impacts</strong> of
catchment development (commercial
forestry plantations <strong>and</strong> future irrigation
development), changing groundwater
extraction, climate variability <strong>and</strong>
anticipated climate <strong>change</strong> on water
resources at a whole-of-region scale have
been assessed. This was achieved through
the most comprehensive hydrological
modelling ever attempted for Tasmania,
using rainfall-runoff models, groundwater
recharge models, river models <strong>and</strong>
groundwater models.
The project has drawn on the scientific
knowledge <strong>and</strong> technical expertise of
national <strong>and</strong> state government agencies,
as well as Australia’s leading academics
<strong>and</strong> industry consultants. The assessments
have been subject to a comprehensive
process of internal <strong>and</strong> external review,
providing quality assurance on all the work
performed <strong>and</strong> all the results delivered.
Oversight of this <strong>and</strong> allied projects
for northern Australia <strong>and</strong> south-west
Western Australia was provided by the
CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country
Flagship, a research initiative established
to deliver the science required for
sustainable management of water
resources in Australia.
Other reports in this series examine
current <strong>and</strong> future surface water <strong>and</strong>
groundwater availability across five project
regions. To set the scene for the ‘region’
reports, this report examines climate
<strong>and</strong> runoff for the whole of Tasmania.
The <strong>projections</strong> shown in this report
are then used in the region reports to
examine current <strong>and</strong> future surface water
<strong>and</strong> groundwater availability for each of
the project regions. For a more detailed
technical analysis readers should also refer
to the associated technical reports.
Project overview
As shown in Figure 1, the overall approach of the project included: (i) defining different
climate scenarios <strong>and</strong> generating daily climate data to describe these scenarios,
(ii) modelling the implications
of these climate scenarios for
catchment runoff <strong>and</strong> aquifer
recharge, (iii) propagating
the runoff <strong>and</strong> recharge
implications through river
system <strong>and</strong> groundwater
models, (iv) assessing ecological
<strong>impacts</strong> <strong>and</strong> (v) reporting
the implications for water
availability <strong>and</strong> water use.
Figure 1. Project framework
Scenarios assessed
The assessments of current <strong>and</strong> future water availability have been undertaken by
considering four scenarios of historical, recent <strong>and</strong> future climate, <strong>and</strong> current <strong>and</strong>
future development. A fifth scenario represents no consumptive extractions. All
scenarios were defined by daily time series of climate variables based on different
scalings of the observed climate from 1 January 1924 to 31 December 2007.
The first scenario is a historical climate scenario <strong>and</strong> is used as the baseline against
which other scenarios are compared. Current levels (December 2007) of surface
water <strong>and</strong> groundwater development were used. For groundwater only, results
are reported using three 23-year periods selected from the historical sequence,
representing a wet extreme, median <strong>and</strong> dry extreme historical climate.
The second scenario is a recent climate scenario for assessing water availability based
on the climate of the recent past (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2007). Current
levels of surface water <strong>and</strong> groundwater development were used.
The third scenario is a future climate scenario. Fifteen global climate models with
three estimates of temperature <strong>change</strong>s due to global warming were used to
provide a spectrum of possible ~2030 climates. From this spectrum, three were
selected for reporting, representing a wet extreme, median <strong>and</strong> dry extreme future
climate. Current levels of surface water <strong>and</strong> groundwater development were used.
The fourth scenario is a future climate with future development scenario. This
scenario used the same climate time series as the future climate scenario, but future
levels of development were used. Future development consisted of 24 proposed
irrigation schemes, as well as ~2030 <strong>projections</strong> of commercial plantation forests
<strong>and</strong> an assumed increase in groundwater extraction to 25 percent of recharge.
The fifth scenario is a without-extractions scenario using historical climate, current
infrastructure <strong>and</strong> no extractions. This allows the impact of extractions to be
explicitly considered.
Project regions
In this report, <strong>change</strong>s in climate <strong>and</strong> runoff are
considered for the whole of Tasmania. However,
other publications from this project* document
<strong>change</strong>s in water availability for five regions:
Arthur-Inglis-Cam (including Flinders <strong>and</strong> King isl<strong>and</strong>s),
Mersey-Forth, Pipers-Ringarooma, South Esk <strong>and</strong>
Derwent-South East (Figure 2). The West Coast region
shown in the figure relates to this report only. Other
regions are mentioned occasionally when referring to
broad regional trends.
Figure 2. CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project regions
* A full list of project reports can be found on the inside back cover <strong>and</strong> the back cover of this report.
Rainfall-runoff
<strong>and</strong> recharge
modelling
system inflows system inflows
River system
modelling <strong>and</strong>
assessment
Scenario
definition
Ecological
assessment
Reporting
Arthur-Inglis-
Cam Mersey-
Forth
West
Coast
Groundwater
modelling <strong>and</strong>
assessment
Pipers-
Ringarooma
South Esk
Derwent-
South East
December 2009 1

Key findings
>
Under historical climate (1924 to 2007)
The mean annual rainfall under historical climate averaged
over Tasmania is 1266 mm. Rainfall is winter-dominated, with
maximum monthly rainfall usually occurring in July or August
<strong>and</strong> minimum monthly rainfall usually occurring in January or
February. The seasonal differences are greatest in the
north-west of Tasmania <strong>and</strong> reduce towards the south-east.
There is a clear east–west rainfall gradient across Tasmania,
where rainfall is highest in the west (mean annual rainfall of
more than 4000 mm for the wettest areas) <strong>and</strong> lowest in the
east (mean annual rainfall of just over 450 mm for the driest
areas). The mean annual areal potential evapotranspiration
averaged over Tasmania is 989 mm, ranging from more than
Gauging station on the South Esk River (CSIRO)
2 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
1100 mm on Flinders Isl<strong>and</strong> in the north-east to less than
850 mm in the south of the state. Areal potential
evapotranspiration is highest in summer, averaging 403 mm
<strong>and</strong> decreasing to an average of just 104 mm in winter.
Under the historical climate, mean annual runoff is 689 mm
or about 54 percent of the mean annual rainfall. This
represents about 47,000 GL of runoff generated annually
on the Tasmanian mainl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> its nearby isl<strong>and</strong>s. There is
more runoff in winter than in any other season, contributing
39 percent of the annual runoff. Summer is the driest season
<strong>and</strong> contributes only 13 percent of the annual runoff.
Under recent climate (1997 to 2007)
In general, under the recent climate, conditions are drier than those
of the last 84 years. Mean annual rainfall over Tasmania is 1193 mm
under the recent climate (a decrease of about 6 percent relative
to the historical climate). This reduction in rainfall is greatest over
the north-east of the state with the Pipers-Ringarooma region
decreasing by 12 percent. The severity of the reduction in rainfall
is lessened moving towards the south with the Arthur-Inglis-Cam
region decreasing by 9 percent, the South Esk region by 8 percent,
the Mersey-Forth region by 7 percent, <strong>and</strong> the Derwent-South East
region by 6 percent. The reductions in rainfall are not distributed
evenly throughout the year, with the largest reductions across every
region occurring in autumn (with a maximum 21 percent reduction
in autumn rainfall across the Pipers-Ringarooma region). The next
largest seasonal reductions are in summer for all regions except the
Pipers-Ringarooma region where rainfall decreases by 14 percent
in winter <strong>and</strong> 12 percent in summer. Changes in spring are minimal,
ranging from a 2 percent decrease in the Arthur-Inglis-Cam region to
just under a 2 percent increase in the Mersey-Forth region.
Except for a few isolated regions of increased runoff, there is an
overall tendency towards less runoff under recent climate, with
86 percent of Tasmania having less runoff than under the historical
climate. The spatial patterns of <strong>change</strong> in runoff under recent
climate (relative to historical climate) strongly reflect the patterns of
<strong>change</strong> in rainfall. Averaged over Tasmania, this reduction is about
7 percent, from 689 mm to 641 mm. In percentage terms, the
reductions in runoff under recent climate are greatest in autumn <strong>and</strong>
least in spring.

Leven River at Ulverstone (CSIRO)
Under future climate ~2030
When considering future climate, the focus is on the wet extreme,
median <strong>and</strong> dry extreme range of future climate.
On average, under the future climate, rainfall increases by 1 percent
under the wet extreme <strong>and</strong> decreases by 6 percent under the dry
extreme <strong>and</strong> by 2 percent under the median future climate. Under the
wet extreme, the largest increases in rainfall occur in summer <strong>and</strong> winter.
Under the median, decreases in rainfall occur in summer, autumn <strong>and</strong>
spring <strong>and</strong> slightly increase in winter. Under the dry extreme, the largest
decrease in rainfall occurs in summer <strong>and</strong> spring but with drying occurring
all year round.
Under the wet extreme, mean annual runoff is greater than under the
historical climate in the South Esk <strong>and</strong> Derwent-South East regions but
decreases elsewhere. In contrast, under the dry extreme, runoff is less
than under the historical climate almost everywhere, especially in central
<strong>and</strong> far north-west Tasmania. Averaged over Tasmania, <strong>change</strong>s in runoff
(relative to historical climate) range from an increase of 2 percent under
the wet extreme to a decrease of 8 percent under the dry extreme.
Runoff decreases by 3 percent under the median future climate.
Under future development
~2030
Except where stated, <strong>change</strong>s under future
development are in addition to <strong>change</strong>s
under future climate.
The area of commercial plantation forests
is projected to increase by about 730 km 2
(a 5 percent increase in total plantation
forest). Averaged over Tasmania, the
reduction in total runoff due to commercial
plantation forests is 0.3 percent, with the
largest decreases occurring in northern
Tasmania. In contrast to the <strong>impacts</strong> of
climate <strong>change</strong>, the <strong>change</strong>s in runoff due
to development (as a result of projected
increases in commercial plantation forests
from Private Forests Tasmania) are much
smaller both over the whole of Tasmania
<strong>and</strong> at the project region scale. However, at
a finer scale, these <strong>change</strong>s in runoff can be
much greater <strong>and</strong> can exceed the expected
<strong>change</strong>s in runoff due to climate <strong>change</strong>
<strong>and</strong> may be significant for water availability
in certain catchments.
December 2009 3

Tasmania – an isl<strong>and</strong> setting
Lying just 240 km off the south-east corner of the Australian mainl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> covering an
area of 68,019 km 2 , Tasmania is Australia’s only isl<strong>and</strong> state. It is bounded by the Southern
Ocean on the south <strong>and</strong> west, the Tasman Sea on the east, <strong>and</strong> Bass Strait to the north.
It is one of the world’s most mountainous isl<strong>and</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> is dominated by peaks that have
a uniquely serrated profile. The geology reflects its millennia-old relationship with
Antarctica. More than 40 percent of the isl<strong>and</strong> is protected as national parks <strong>and</strong> reserves
<strong>and</strong> about 73 percent remains a relatively natural environment.
Biophysical facts <strong>and</strong> figures
Tasmania experiences a maritime climate
with average maximum daily temperatures
of 17 to 23 °C in summer <strong>and</strong> 3 to 11 °C
in winter. Rainfall varies dramatically over
the isl<strong>and</strong>. In the south-east, Hobart
has mean annual rainfall of 626 mm (it is
Australia’s second-driest capital city after
Adelaide). In contrast, mean annual rainfall
in some places on the west coast exceeds
4000 mm. Tasmania has 12 percent of
Australia’s freshwater resources even
though it covers less than 1 percent of its
total l<strong>and</strong> mass. The mean annual runoff
is around 47,000 GL. Frontal activity
bringing moisture-laden winds out of
the Southern Ocean dominates winter
weather patterns <strong>and</strong> can result in flood
events. Tasmania has experienced some
severe periods of drought in recent years.
The varied topography <strong>and</strong> rainfall of
Tasmania makes for a diverse range
of physical environments, many of
which are globally significant <strong>and</strong>
have World Heritage status. The
jagged outcrops of Frenchmans Cap,
Federation Peak <strong>and</strong> the Arthur Range
are spectacular forms in the south-west,
>
Cradle Mountain (DPIPWE)
4 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
<strong>and</strong> Cradle Mountain, Ben Lomond <strong>and</strong>
Freycinet Peninsula are other well-known
l<strong>and</strong>marks. Tasmania’s Central Plateau
forms the most extensive alpine
environment in Australia, overlain by an
interconnecting system of lakes formed by
numerous ice ages. Tasmania’s lakes <strong>and</strong>
rivers include the Gordon River, which
has the second highest discharge rate of
any river in the country, <strong>and</strong> Lake St Clair
which is the deepest <strong>and</strong> one of the most
geomorphologically significant in Australia.
Tasmania also contains numerous
intricately connected cave systems, many
of which have significant karst formations.
Groundwater resources, though extensive,
are not evenly distributed <strong>and</strong> both quality
<strong>and</strong> yield can be highly variable, depending
on the aquifer type, the topographic
location <strong>and</strong> the rainfall.
Tasmania’s streams typically flow over
rugged terrain <strong>and</strong> therefore have
swift-flowing, turbulent water <strong>and</strong> rocky
beds. Most streams arise not far from the
coast <strong>and</strong> do not have large depositional
areas before reaching the sea. However,
some streams, such as the Me<strong>and</strong>er <strong>and</strong>
> Poppy irrigation in the Jordan
catchment (DPIPWE)
Macquarie rivers, do me<strong>and</strong>er <strong>and</strong> braid as
they pass through very flat country during
their depositional phase. The main rivers
are the South Esk, Derwent, Gordon,
Arthur, Huon, Mersey, Franklin, Pieman
<strong>and</strong> the North Esk.
Over 800 wetl<strong>and</strong>s cover a combined
area of about 410 km 2 . The variety of
l<strong>and</strong>forms <strong>and</strong> rainfall patterns have
resulted in many different types of wetl<strong>and</strong>
ranging from marine waters, estuaries,
brackish lagoons <strong>and</strong> mudflats on the
coast, to highl<strong>and</strong> lakes <strong>and</strong> extensive
peatl<strong>and</strong>s. Ten wetl<strong>and</strong>s are listed as
internationally significant under the
Ramsar Convention: Moulting, Logan,
Lavinia, Pitt Water-Orielton, Jocks
<strong>and</strong> East Coast-Cape Barren Isl<strong>and</strong>
lagoons; Flood Plain Lower Ringarooma
River; Apsley Marshes; Interlaken
(Lake Crescent); <strong>and</strong> Little Waterhouse
Lake. Areas like Orielton Lagoon,
Moulting Lagoon <strong>and</strong> Robbins Passage
are internationally important feeding <strong>and</strong>
breeding sites for waterfowl <strong>and</strong>
migratory waders.
Tasmania’s alpine areas, rainforests,
eucalypt forests, grassl<strong>and</strong>s <strong>and</strong> heathl<strong>and</strong>
complexes reflect the enormous diversity
of vegetation types found on this small
isl<strong>and</strong>. Western <strong>and</strong> south-western
Tasmania are dominated by ancient plants
like myrtle, Huon pine <strong>and</strong> sassafras,
whereas the drier eastern <strong>and</strong> northern
parts of Tasmania are dominated by
eucalypts, wattles <strong>and</strong> banksias.

Population <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use
Tasmania’s population is 494,520 (March
2008) <strong>and</strong> is divided almost equally between
the north <strong>and</strong> south. The main centres are
Hobart (the capital city with 203,600 people),
Launceston (98,500), Burnie (18,000) <strong>and</strong>
Devonport (25,000).
Based on data from 2001, the dominant l<strong>and</strong>
uses in Tasmania are native vegetation <strong>and</strong>
forestry (Figure 3). Native vegetation covers
50.2 percent of the state, forestry covers
22.2 percent <strong>and</strong> 1.4 percent is irrigated
cropping (Table 1).
King
Isl<strong>and</strong>
Town
Major river
Other river
Lake / storage
Wetl<strong>and</strong>
Irrigation
Forestry
Native vegetation
Arthur River
Grazing <strong>and</strong> dryl<strong>and</strong> cropping
Other
0 50 100
Kilometres
Figure 3. Tasmania’s l<strong>and</strong> use in the year 2001
Smithton
Table 1. Broad l<strong>and</strong> use in Tasmania in the year 2001 (Source: Department of
Primary Industries, Water <strong>and</strong> Environment, GIS Section, 2001)
Strahan
L<strong>and</strong> use Area
percent km 2
Native vegetation 50.2% 34,164
Forestry 22.2% 15,111
Grazing <strong>and</strong> dryl<strong>and</strong> cropping
Grazing modified pastures 17.6% 12,002
Livestock grazing 4.6% 3,142
Dryl<strong>and</strong> cropping 0.0% 10
Sub-total 22.3% 15,154
Irrigation
Irrigated pastures 0.6% 435
Irrigated cropping 1.4% 961
Sub-total 2.1% 1,396
Water 1.8% 1,198
Other 1.5% 996
Total 100.0% 68,019
Burnie
River Forth
Queenstown
Devonport
Mersey River
River Derwent
George Town
Pipers River
Launceston
Deloraine
Longford
Bridport
Hobart
Kingston
Ringar oo m a River
Scottsdale
South Esk River
Flinders
Isl<strong>and</strong>
St Helens
December 2009 5

<strong>Climate</strong>
Historical climate
The baseline scenario (for comparison with other scenarios) uses the observed
historical climate from 1 January 1924 to 31 December 2007 <strong>and</strong> assumes current levels
of surface <strong>and</strong> groundwater development, <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> cover <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use. This section
describes rainfall <strong>and</strong> areal potential evapotranspiration under this historical climate.
Historical daily climate data for the
84-year period from 1924 to 2007 (based
on ~5 x 5 km grid cells across Tasmania)
were examined.
Annual rainfall for the period is shown in
Figure 4. There were wetter conditions in
the 1950s <strong>and</strong> 1970s <strong>and</strong> drier conditions
in the 1960s <strong>and</strong> the last decade.
Figure 5 shows the mean rainfall for
Tasmania under these historical climate
conditions distributed annually <strong>and</strong> for
summer (December to February), autumn
(March to May), winter (June to August)
<strong>and</strong> spring (September to November).
The mean annual rainfall averaged
over Tasmania is 1266 mm. Rainfall is
winter-dominated, with the maximum
monthly rainfall usually occurring in July or
August <strong>and</strong> the minimum monthly rainfall
usually occurring in January or February.
The seasonal differences are greatest in
the north-west of the state <strong>and</strong> reduce
towards the south-east.
>
Grapevines near the Pipers River (CSIRO)
2000
1600
1200
800
6 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
A clear east–west rainfall gradient across
Tasmania is evident as shown in Figure 5,
with rainfall highest in the west (mean
annual rainfall of more than 4000 mm for
the wettest grid cell) <strong>and</strong> lowest in the
east (mean annual rainfall of just over
450 mm for the driest grid cell).
The mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal areal
potential evapotranspiration (APET) are
Annual rainfall (mm)
Mean
shown in Figure 6. Mean annual APET
averaged over Tasmania is 989 mm,
ranging from more than 1100 mm on
Flinders Isl<strong>and</strong> in the north-east to less
than 850 mm in the south of the state.
APET is highest in summer averaging
403 mm, reducing to an average of just
104 mm in winter.
400
1924 1944 1964 1984 2004
Figure 4. Annual rainfall averaged over Tasmania under historical climate

Annual
Mean annual rainfall (mm)
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal rainfall under historical climate
Mean seasonal rainfall (mm)
300 400 500 600 800 1000 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 4200 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1000 1200 1400
Annual
Mean annual APET (mm)
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Mean seasonal APET (mm)
750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal areal potential evapotranspiration (APET) under historical climate
December 2009 7

Recent climate
The recent climate scenario is based on climate characteristics of the recent past
(11 years from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2007). It is used to evaluate the
impact of the recent drought in Tasmania.
In general, the recent climate has been
drier than that of the historical 84-year
period as shown in Figure 7. The spatial
distribution of these <strong>change</strong>s can be seen
in Figure 8. Across Tasmania, mean annual
rainfall under the recent climate is
1193 mm, a 6 percent reduction relative to
the historical climate. This reduction
in rainfall is greatest in the north-east
Mean monthly rainfall (mm)
200
150
100
50
0
Historical
Recent
8 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
of the state where rainfall in the
Pipers-Ringarooma region decreases
by 12 percent. The severity of the
reduction in rainfall lessens towards
the south – decreasing by 9 percent in
the Arthur-Inglis-Cam, 8 percent in the
South Esk, 7 percent in the Mersey-Forth
<strong>and</strong> 6 percent in the Derwent-South East
regions. Under the recent climate,
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 7. Mean monthly rainfall averaged over Tasmania under
historical <strong>and</strong> recent climate
Annual
Percent <strong>change</strong> in rainfall
–30 –20 –10 –5 –2 2 5 10 20 30
rainfall decreases over almost all of the
state with a small patch increasing in the
West Coast region (Figure 8). However,
as that area of the state contains very few
rain gauges, this increase should be treated
with some caution. As the West Coast
region is excluded from an analysis of
<strong>change</strong>s in water availability in this project,
this possible anomaly does not affect the
results of the overall project.
The reduction in rainfall is not distributed
evenly throughout the year – the largest
occurs in autumn (12 percent) followed
by summer (6 percent) then winter
(4 percent) <strong>and</strong> finally spring (2 percent).
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Figure 8. Spatial distribution of percent <strong>change</strong> in mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal rainfall under recent climate relative to
historical climate

Future climate
The future (~2030) climate scenario was derived by modifying the historical
climate sequence. To do this, a range of possible future climates were considered
using three global warming levels <strong>and</strong> 15 of the global climate models (GCMs)
included in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
<strong>Climate</strong> Change. Changes in rainfall <strong>and</strong> areal potential evapotranspiration were
derived directly from the GCMs. Rainfall <strong>projections</strong> were further refined through
dynamic downscaling. This section describes rainfall under the future climate.
While there are considerable differences between the rainfall
<strong>projections</strong> of the 15 GCMs, generally mean annual rainfall decreases
under the future climate, particularly over the northern half of
Tasmania, with less rainfall occurring in spring, summer <strong>and</strong> autumn.
Winter rainfall also decreases over the northern half of Tasmania but
increases over the southern half.
This report focuses on the wet extreme, median <strong>and</strong> dry extreme
range of future climate (taken as the notional 90 th , 50 th <strong>and</strong> 10 th
percentiles of future rainfall <strong>projections</strong> respectively).
Changes in mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal rainfall across Tasmania are shown
in Figure 9 <strong>and</strong> summarised in Table 2.
The methods used to derive the future climate sequences are
described in the associated technical report Production of climate
scenarios for Tasmania.
>
New Norfolk on the Derwent River (CSIRO)
> Flood alert station on the Me<strong>and</strong>er
River (CSIRO)
December 2009 9

Annual
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Spring
Wet extreme Median Dry extreme
Figure 9. Spatial distribution of percent <strong>change</strong> in mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal rainfall over Tasmania under wet extreme, median
<strong>and</strong> dry extreme future climate relative to historical climate
10 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
Percent <strong>change</strong> in rainfall
–30 –20 –10 –5 –2 2 5 10 20 30

Under the future climate, mean annual rainfall
increases by 1 percent under the wet extreme
<strong>and</strong> decreases by 6 percent under the dry
extreme <strong>and</strong> by 2 percent under the the
median future climate. These <strong>change</strong>s are not
evenly distributed throughout the year. Under
the wet extreme future climate, the largest
increases occur in summer <strong>and</strong> winter. Under
the median future climate, decreases occur in
summer, autumn <strong>and</strong> spring <strong>and</strong> winter rainfall
increases slightly. Under the dry extreme
future climate, the largest decreases occur
in summer <strong>and</strong> spring, but the general trend
is for a year-round decrease. As the <strong>change</strong>s
in rainfall shown in Table 2 were derived
separately, both annually <strong>and</strong> for each season,
the seasonal means do not combine to give
the annual mean. This is because the seasonal
results may come from four different models
– one for each season, while the annual result
comes from the one model for the whole
year. These seasonal results represent the
extreme <strong>change</strong> in rainfall on a seasonal basis
<strong>and</strong> were not used for modelling the other
components of the project.
Although rainfall over Tasmania in general
decreases under the future climate, intense
rainfall events increase, particularly in summer
<strong>and</strong> spring, <strong>and</strong> less so in winter <strong>and</strong> autumn.
Mean monthly rainfall over the last 84 years
for the whole of Tasmania as well as the
median <strong>and</strong> projected range under the
future climate is shown in Figure 10. Rainfall
decreases in most months (the future median
is lower than under the historical climate).
In addition, for most months, the historical
rainfall is close to the upper bound of the
future range, implying that future conditions
will, in general, be drier than past conditions.
>
Boom irrigator operating near Sassafras (CSIRO)
Table 2. Change in rainfall under future climate relative to historical climate
Wet extreme future climate
Mean monthly rainfall (mm)
200
150
100
50
0
Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring
Future range
Future median
Historical
percent
Change in rainfall mean 1% 5% 2% 4% 2%
Percentage of Tasmania
becoming drier
Median future climate
28% 8% 19% 5% 27%
Change in rainfall mean –2% –5% –2% 1% –4%
Percentage of Tasmania
becoming drier
Dry extreme future climate
84% 91% 65% 39% 94%
Change in rainfall mean –6% –15% –8% –4% –11%
Percentage of Tasmania
becoming drier
99% 100% 97% 92% 100%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 10. Mean monthly rainfall averaged over Tasmania
under historical <strong>and</strong> the future climate
December 2009 11

Runoff
Throughout this project, the Simhyd rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate runoff across Tasmania. Simhyd was
calibrated for 90 gauged catchments <strong>and</strong> the resulting parameter sets were used to regionalise simulations to ungauged
parts of Tasmania. The modelling of runoff under future development included consideration of forest plantation
developments because of the impact these have on runoff. The simulations projected daily runoff under the historical,
recent <strong>and</strong> future climate scenarios described previously.
For more details on Simhyd <strong>and</strong> its calibration, refer to the companion document Rainfall-runoff modelling for Tasmania.
Runoff under historical climate
Under the historical climate, mean annual runoff averaged
over Tasmania is 689 mm (Table 3) – about 54 percent of the
mean annual rainfall. This represents about 47,000 GL of runoff
generated annually from the Tasmanian mainl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> its nearby
isl<strong>and</strong>s. Winter yields more runoff than any other season <strong>and</strong>,
averaged over the state, contributes 39 percent of the annual
runoff. Summer is the driest season <strong>and</strong> contributes 13 percent
of the annual runoff, which varies between 437 mm <strong>and</strong> 1010 mm
from year to year (Figure 11). While annual runoff varies
considerably, inter-annual variability is low by Australian st<strong>and</strong>ards.
The spatial pattern of runoff generation is characterised by
a strong east–west gradient with runoff highest in the west
(Figure 12). The pattern of mean annual runoff resembles that
of rainfall, reflecting its role as the most important driver of
runoff processes. The highest mean annual runoff (3434 mm)
occurs in parts of the West Coast region <strong>and</strong> the lowest
(17 mm) occurs in parts of the Derwent-South East region.
The annual pattern of runoff is broadly retained in each
season, with the same gradient still apparent. However, as
shown in Figure 12, it is also apparent that runoff in northern
Tasmania is strongly winter-dominated <strong>and</strong> in southern
Tasmania is distributed more evenly among the seasons. The
most strongly winter-dominated area generates 62 percent of
its runoff in winter <strong>and</strong> only 3 percent in summer. In contrast,
the least winter-dominated area generates 27 percent of its
runoff in winter <strong>and</strong> 26 percent in summer.
Figure 12.
Spatial distribution
of mean annual
<strong>and</strong> seasonal
runoff under
historical climate
Annual
Mean annual runoff (mm)
12 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
Annual runoff (mm)
Table 3. Mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal runoff under historical
climate
1200
Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring
1000
800
600
400
Mean
mm
689 93 148 268 180
200
1924 1944 1964 1984 2004
Figure 11. Annual runoff for the whole of Tasmania under
historical climate
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Mean seasonal runoff (mm)
0 100 200 300 400 600 800 1200 1600 2000 3500 0 25 50 100 150 200 300 400 600 800 1300

Runoff under recent climate
For runoff modelling, the recent climate scenario was based on an
84-year climate series produced using rainfall <strong>and</strong> APET characteristics
of the recent past (1 January 1997 to 31 December 2007). This was
used to assess the water availability of the recent past.
Under the recent climate, mean monthly runoff in most months is less
than under the historical climate (Figure 13). Exceptions occur in early
spring. For Tasmania, under the recent climate, the biggest increase
in runoff occurs in October (11 percent), <strong>and</strong> the biggest decrease
occurs in November (23 percent). This suggests that the recent
climate features increased variability in runoff generation in spring.
In addition to this temporal variability,
the increased patchiness of the spring
distribution (relative to other seasons)
shown in Figure 14 suggests that this
variability may also have a spatial
component. Apart from November, only
one other month (April, 22 percent) has a
decreased runoff of more than 15 percent.
In this case, however, the direction <strong>and</strong>
magnitude of the <strong>change</strong> are consistent with
those of surrounding months, indicating
that the reductions in autumn runoff are
sustained throughout the season.
Except for a few isolated areas of increased
runoff, there is an overall tendency towards
reduced mean annual runoff under the
Annual
Percent <strong>change</strong> in runoff
Mean monthly runoff (mm)
150
100
50
Historical
Recent
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 13. Mean monthly runoff averaged over the whole of
Tasmania under historical <strong>and</strong> recent climate
Table 4. Change in annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal runoff under recent climate relative to
historical climate
Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring
percent
Change in runoff mean –7% –6% –17% –5% –1%
Percentage of Tasmania
with decreasing runoff
86% 81% 97% 78% 60%
recent climate relative to the historical
climate (Figure 14), with 86 percent of
Tasmania having less runoff (Table 4). The
spatial pattern of the <strong>change</strong> in runoff
strongly reflects the patterns of <strong>change</strong> in
the rainfall. Averaged over Tasmania, this
reduction in runoff is about 7 percent –
–70 –30 –20 –15 –10 –5 5 10 15 20 30 70
from 689 mm to 641 mm. In percentage
terms, the reductions in runoff under the
recent climate are greatest in autumn
(17 percent) <strong>and</strong> least in spring (1 percent)
with decreases of 6 percent in summer <strong>and</strong>
5 percent in winter.
Summer Autumn
Winter Spring
Figure 14. Spatial distribution of percent <strong>change</strong> in mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal runoff under recent climate relative to
historical climate
December 2009 13

Runoff under future climate
Changes in runoff under future climate
(~2030) relative to the historical climate
vary depending on the GCMs <strong>and</strong> global
warming scenarios upon which they are
based. However, there is strong consensus
in all seasons about the direction of <strong>change</strong>
in many parts of Tasmania. Decreases occur
in the western half of Tasmania <strong>and</strong> in much
of the north-east, <strong>and</strong> there are increases
along parts of the east coast <strong>and</strong> in other
isolated parts of inl<strong>and</strong> eastern Tasmania.
Change in mean seasonal runoff is less
clear-cut but tends to decrease in summer,
autumn <strong>and</strong> spring, <strong>and</strong> increase in winter.
Refer to the associated technical report
Rainfall-runoff modelling for Tasmania for
further details on GCM selection.
Changes in runoff under the wet extreme,
median <strong>and</strong> dry extreme range of future
climate (taken as the notional 90 th , 50 th <strong>and</strong>
10 th percentiles of future runoff <strong>projections</strong>
respectively) are shown in Table 5.
Changes to mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal
runoff under future climate relative to the
historical climate are shown in Figure 15.
Under the wet extreme future climate,
annual runoff tends to increase over much
of eastern Tasmania but little <strong>change</strong> is
seen elsewhere. In contrast, under the dry
extreme future climate, runoff decreases
almost everywhere, especially in central
Tasmania <strong>and</strong> the far north-west.
14 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
Spatially, the mean annual runoff ranges
from a decrease of 11 percent to an
increase of 34 percent under the wet
extreme future climate; from a decrease
of 25 percent to an increase of 17 percent
under the median future climate; <strong>and</strong> from
a decrease of 30 percent to an increase of
11 percent under the dry extreme future
climate (Figure 15). Note that the <strong>change</strong>s
in runoff in Figure 15 are based on different
GCMs to the <strong>change</strong>s in rainfall in Figure 9
so they are not directly comparable.
Averaged over Tasmania, <strong>change</strong>s in
annual runoff under the future climate
(relative to the historical climate) range
from an increase of 2 percent under the
wet extreme to a decrease of 8 percent
under the dry extreme (Table 5). Under
the median future climate, runoff decreases
by 3 percent. These whole-of-Tasmania
averages are strongly influenced by
the <strong>change</strong>s for the West Coast which
contributes 54 percent of Tasmania’s
47,000 GL of mean annual runoff under
the historical climate. The seasonal runoff
for the whole of Tasmania under the
median future climate is less than under the
historical climate in all seasons (Table 5).
The seasonal reductions range from
1 percent in winter to 6 percent in spring
<strong>and</strong> summer.
Table 5. Change in annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal runoff under the future climate relative to
historical climate
Wet extreme future climate
Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring
percent
Change in runoff mean 2% 7% 1% 2% –1%
Percentage of Tasmania
with decreasing runoff
Median future climate
28% 22% 28% 32% 49%
Change in runoff mean –3% –6% –4% –1% –6%
Percentage of Tasmania
with decreasing runoff
Dry extreme future climate
82% 86% 80% 57% 83%
Change in runoff mean –8% –18% –9% –1% –14%
Percentage of Tasmania
with decreasing runoff
97% 92% 91% 50% 94%
>
Cethana Dam spillway (CSIRO)
> Hops <strong>and</strong> forestry near Branxholm
(CSIRO)

Annual
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Spring
Wet extreme Median Dry extreme
Percent <strong>change</strong> in runoff
–90 –30 –20 –15 –10 –5 5 10 15 20 30 90
Figure 15. Spatial distribution of percent <strong>change</strong> in mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal runoff across Tasmania under wet extreme, median
<strong>and</strong> dry extreme future climate relative to historical climate
December 2009 15

Mean monthly runoff for Tasmania under
the future climate relative to the historical
climate is shown in Figure 16. Averaged
over Tasmania, the runoff under the
median future climate is slightly less than
the runoff under the historical climate
in all months. The greatest proportional
reductions in runoff are about 6 percent
<strong>and</strong> occur during the five months
from October to February. The smallest
reductions in runoff (less than 1 percent)
occur in July <strong>and</strong> August. In most months,
the upper limit of the range in monthly
runoff under the future climate is
close to the runoff under the historical
climate (within 2 percent), but between
December <strong>and</strong> February it exceeds
runoff under the historical climate by
7 to 8 percent. The lower limit of the
range in monthly runoff under the future
climate is up to 20 percent below that
under the historical climate between
December <strong>and</strong> February, but less than
5 percent below in July <strong>and</strong> August.
Runoff under future development
Projections of runoff under future
development were made by incorporating
a measure of increased commercial
plantation forests into the rainfall-runoff
modelling. <strong>Climate</strong> inputs were the
same as those used under the future
climate described above. Comparisons
of <strong>change</strong> in runoff under current <strong>and</strong>
future development are made relative to
the median future climate. For a more
detailed description of the method see
the companion document Rainfall-runoff
modelling for Tasmania.
Under future development, any <strong>change</strong>s
in runoff are solely as a result of increased
commercial forestry plantations. The
projected area of additional plantation
is 730 km 2 (an increase of 5 percent),
distributed mainly in the northern part of
Tasmania. Averaged over Tasmania, runoff
under future development (relative to
current levels of development) decreases
by 0.3 percent with the largest regional
16 <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania
Mean monthly runoff (mm)
150
100
50
0
Future range
Future median
Historical
Generally under the future climate, the
patterns of <strong>change</strong> in large daily runoff
events closely reflect the patterns of
<strong>change</strong> in mean annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal
runoff. However, where mean annual
runoff decreases, the decrease in
large daily runoff events is less severe.
Conversely where mean annual runoff
increases, the increase in large daily runoff
reductions being 1.5 percent in the
Mersey-Forth region <strong>and</strong> 1.2 percent in
the Pipers-Ringarooma region (Table 6).
The percent reductions tend to be greater
in summer than in other seasons because
of the lower streamflows at that time.
Runoff <strong>change</strong>s resulting from increases
in commercial forestry plantations alone
are much smaller than those due to
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 16. Mean monthly runoff averaged over Tasmania
under historical <strong>and</strong> future climate
events is more substantial. Therefore
under the future climate, whether
runoff increases or decreases, the larger
flow events are likely to carry a larger
proportion of the total flow than they do
under the historical climate.
future climate <strong>change</strong> (Table 5) at both
the project region level <strong>and</strong> for the whole
of Tasmania. However, in some areas,
<strong>change</strong>s in runoff due to development can
exceed those under future climate. These
<strong>change</strong>s in runoff may also be significant
for water availability in certain catchments.
This is explored in the region reports
listed on the back cover.
Table 6. Change in annual <strong>and</strong> seasonal runoff under future development relative to
current development for six regions <strong>and</strong> the whole of Tasmania
Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring
percent
Arthur-Inglis-Cam –0.4% –1.0% –0.5% –0.3% –0.3%
Mersey-Forth –1.5% –2.0% –1.4% –1.5% –1.4%
Pipers-Ringarooma –1.2% –1.8% –1.7% –1.1% –1.0%
South Esk –0.9% –1.1% –0.9% –0.9% –0.9%
Derwent-South East –0.2% –0.3% –0.2% –0.2% –0.2%
West Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Whole of Tasmania –0.3% –0.3% –0.3% –0.3% –0.3%

Prepared by CSIRO for the Australian
Government under the Water for
the Future Plan of the Australian
Government Department of the
Environment, Water, Heritage
<strong>and</strong> the Arts. Important aspects
of the work were undertaken by
the Tasmanian Department of
Primary Industries, Parks, Water
<strong>and</strong> Environment; Hydro Tasmania
Consulting; Sinclair Knight Merz; <strong>and</strong>
Aquaterra Consulting.
Technical reports
Graham B, Hardie S, Gooderham J, Gurung S, Hardie D, Marvanek S, Bobbi C,
Krasnicki T <strong>and</strong> Post DA (2009) Ecological <strong>impacts</strong> of water availability for Tasmania.
A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields
Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
Harrington GA, Crosbie R, Marvanek S, McCallum J, Currie D, Richardson S,
Waclawik V, Anders L, Georgiou J, Middlemis H <strong>and</strong> Bond K (2009) Groundwater
assessment <strong>and</strong> modelling for Tasmania. A report to the Australian Government from
the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country
Flagship, Australia.
Ling FLN, Gupta V, Willis M, Bennett JC, Robinson KA, Paudel K, Post DA <strong>and</strong>
Marvanek S (2009) River modelling for Tasmania. Volume 1: the Arthur-Inglis-Cam
region. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable
Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
Ling FLN, Gupta V, Willis M, Bennett JC, Robinson KA, Paudel K, Post DA <strong>and</strong>
Marvanek S (2009) River modelling for Tasmania. Volume 2: the Mersey-Forth region.
A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields
Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
Ling FLN, Gupta V, Willis M, Bennett JC, Robinson KA, Paudel K, Post DA <strong>and</strong>
Marvanek S (2009) River modelling for Tasmania. Volume 3: the Pipers-Ringarooma
region. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable
Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
Ling FLN, Gupta V, Willis M, Bennett JC, Robinson KA, Paudel K, Post DA <strong>and</strong>
Marvanek S (2009) River modelling for Tasmania. Volume 4: the South Esk region. A
report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields
Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
Ling FLN, Gupta V, Willis M, Bennett JC, Robinson KA, Paudel K, Post DA <strong>and</strong>
Marvanek S (2009) River modelling for Tasmania. Volume 5: the Derwent-South East
region. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable
Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
Post DA, Chiew FHS, Teng J, Vaze J, Yang A, Mpelasoka F, Smith I, Katzfey J, Marston F,
Marvanek S, Kirono D, Nguyen K, Kent D, Donohue R, Li L <strong>and</strong> McVicar T (2009)
Production of climate scenarios for Tasmania. A report to the Australian Government
from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy
Country Flagship, Australia.
Viney NR, Post DA, Yang A, Willis M, Robinson KA, Bennett JC, Ling FLN <strong>and</strong>
Marvanek S (2009) Rainfall-runoff modelling for Tasmania. A report to the Australian
Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a
Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
All technical reports are available for download from
.
Contributors
The following people contributed to the production of this report
through their involvement in the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable
Yields Project:
Project Leader – David Post
Report compiled by – Frances Marston
Project Team – T Hatton, M Kirby, NR Viney, GA Harrington,
FLN Ling, B Graham, FHS Chiew, T McGillion, L Merrin, S Cuddy,
J Teng, A Yang, G Walker, S Richardson, H Middlemis, M Ahmad,
W Francis, J Katzfey, J McGregor, K Nguyen, R Crosbie, S Marvanek,
S Hardie, J Gooderham, V Gupta, M Willis, D Kirono, I Smith,
J McCallum, M Hartcher, S Gurung, L Schmidt, M Latinovic,
D Hardie, JC Bennett, KA Robinson, K Paudel, D Currie, J Georgiou,
B Schmidt, S Duffy, H Buettikofer, F Mpelasoka, J Vaze, A Freebairn,
C Bobbi, T Krasnicki, A Dyce, S Gallant, C Maguire, B Wurcker,
W Cai, J Bathols, R Donohue, L Li, T McVicar, D Kent, D Rockliff,
K Jacka, V Waclawik, L Anders, K Bond.
CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project acknowledgments
Project guidance was provided by the Steering Committee:
Australian Government Department of the Environment, Water,
Heritage <strong>and</strong> the Arts; Tasmanian Department of Primary
Industries, Parks, Water <strong>and</strong> Environment; CSIRO Water for a
Healthy Country Flagship; <strong>and</strong> the Bureau of Meteorology.
Valuable input was provided by the Sustainable Yields Technical
Reference Panel: CSIRO L<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Water; Australian Government
Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage <strong>and</strong> the Arts;
Tasmanian Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water, <strong>and</strong>
Environment; Western Australian Department of Water; <strong>and</strong> the
National Water Commission.

Region reports
CSIRO (2009) Water availability for Tasmania. Report one of seven to the Australian
Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO Water for a
Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
CSIRO (2009) <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> <strong>projections</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>impacts</strong> on runoff for Tasmania. Report
two of seven to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields
Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
CSIRO (2009) Water availability for the Arthur-Inglis-Cam region. Report three of seven
to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project,
CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
CSIRO (2009) Water availability for the Mersey-Forth region. Report four of seven to
the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO
Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
CSIRO (2009) Water availability for the Pipers-Ringarooma region. Report five of seven
to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project,
CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
CSIRO (2009) Water availability for the South Esk region. Report six of seven to the
Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project, CSIRO
Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
CSIRO (2009) Water availability for the Derwent-South East region. Report seven
of seven to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields
Project, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia.
All region reports <strong>and</strong> a glossary are available for download from
.
Enquiries
More information about the CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project can be found at
. This information includes the full terms of
reference for the project <strong>and</strong> all associated reporting products.
More information about the Water for the Future Plan of the Australian Government can
be found at .
This publication has been designed by the Visual Resources Unit, CSIRO Plant Industry
<strong>and</strong> printed by New Millennium Print to comply with a very high st<strong>and</strong>ard of
environmental performance as stipulated in the Good Environment Choice
environmental labelling st<strong>and</strong>ard GECA 20 – Printers <strong>and</strong> Printed Matter –
www.geca.org.au/st<strong>and</strong>ardsregister.htm.
Web: www.csiro.au/flagships