Causal risk models of air transport - NLR-ATSI

Table of contents
List of abbreviations ................................................................................................. 4
Chapter 1. Introduction............................................................................................ 7
1.1. Research question.................................................................................... 9
1.2. Scope....................................................................................................... 9
1.3. Directions for the reader........................................................................ 11
Chapter 2. Fundamentals of risk............................................................................ 12
2.1. Definition of safety ............................................................................... 12
2.2. Risk perception...................................................................................... 13
2.3. Risk metrics........................................................................................... 14
2.4. Risk criteria ........................................................................................... 17
2.5. Theories about accident causation......................................................... 19
2.6. Risk analysis and risk modelling........................................................... 20
2.7. Conclusions for this section .................................................................. 21
Chapter 3. Fundamentals of causation and probability.......................................... 23
3.1. What is causation?................................................................................. 23
3.2. Conditional independence..................................................................... 26
3.3. Causation to predict the future .............................................................. 27
3.4. Singular and generic causal relations.................................................... 28
3.5. Strong and weak causal relations .......................................................... 29
3.6. The beginning and the end of causation................................................ 29
3.7. What is a causal model?........................................................................ 30
3.8. Conclusions for this section .................................................................. 31
Chapter 4. User needs............................................................................................ 33
4.1. A brief history of aviation safety........................................................... 33
4.2. Who are the users? ................................................................................ 43
4.3. Perspectives on aviation safety ............................................................. 43
4.3.1. Airlines.................................................................................................. 43
4.3.2. Repair stations....................................................................................... 45
4.3.3. Aircraft manufacturer............................................................................ 47
4.3.4. Air navigation service provider............................................................. 49
4.3.5. Airports ................................................................................................. 51
4.3.6. Policy makers and regulatory bodies .................................................... 52
4.3.7. Passengers ............................................................................................. 58
4.3.8. People living or working in the vicinity of airports .............................. 60
4.4. Summary of user requirements and discussion on consistency............. 62
4.5. User expectations: lessons from CATS................................................. 72
4.6. Conclusions for this section .................................................................. 74
Chapter 5. Examples of aviation safety analyses................................................... 78
5.1. Safety of mixed VFR/IFR air traffic at Geneva Airport ....................... 78
5.2. Safety assessment of parallel approaches at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport.. 79
5.3. Safety assessment of offset steep approaches at Lugano Airport.......... 80
5.4. Reduced vertical separation minimum in Europe ................................. 81
5.5. VEMER ATM System increment 2002 ................................................ 83
5.6. Conclusions for this section .................................................................. 84
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