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8.8 Computation of Compound Probabilities

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<strong>8.8</strong> <strong>Computation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> <strong>Probabilities</strong> 8-1<br />

<strong>8.8</strong> <strong>Computation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> <strong>Probabilities</strong><br />

P(A � B)<br />

Objectives<br />

1. Compute <strong>Probabilities</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> Events<br />

2. Compute <strong>Probabilities</strong> <strong>of</strong> Independent Events<br />

In the previous section, we discussed how to compute the probability <strong>of</strong> a single<br />

event. For example, the probability <strong>of</strong> being dealt the very rare poker hand,<br />

1<br />

called a royal flush, is C(52,5) , about one in two and one-half<br />

million.<br />

In this section, we will discuss how to find the probability <strong>of</strong> one event or<br />

another, or the probability <strong>of</strong> one event and another. Such events are called<br />

compound events.<br />

�<br />

C(5, 5)<br />

1<br />

C(52, 5) 2,598,960<br />

�<br />

1. Compute <strong>Probabilities</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> Events<br />

We have seen that if and are two events, the probability that and will both<br />

occur is . In this section, we also discuss , the probability that<br />

either or will occur.<br />

Suppose we want to find the probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a king or a heart from a<br />

standard card deck. If is the event “drawing a king” and is the event “drawing<br />

a heart,” then , and P(H) � . However, the probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a<br />

king or a heart is not the sum <strong>of</strong> these two probabilities. Because the king <strong>of</strong><br />

hearts was counted twice, once as a king and once as a heart, and because the<br />

1<br />

1<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> drawing the king <strong>of</strong> hearts is 52,<br />

we must subtract 52 from the sum<br />

4 13<br />

<strong>of</strong> and to get the correct probability.<br />

13<br />

P(K) � 52<br />

4<br />

A B<br />

A B<br />

P(A � B)<br />

P(A � B)<br />

A B<br />

K<br />

H<br />

52<br />

52<br />

52<br />

� 4<br />

�<br />

13<br />

16<br />

�<br />

52<br />

4<br />

P(king or heart) � P(king) � P(heart) � P(king <strong>of</strong> hearts)<br />

P(K � H) � P(K) � P(H) � P(K � H)<br />

13 1<br />

� �<br />

52 52 52<br />

In general, we have the following rule.<br />

If A and B are two events, then<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B) � P(A � B)<br />

If events A and B have no outcomes in common, then A � B �� and<br />

P(A � B) � P(�) � 0.<br />

Such events are called mutually exclusive (if one event<br />

occurs, the other cannot).<br />

Here some examples <strong>of</strong> events that are mutually exclusive and some that are<br />

not.


8-2 Chapter 8 Natural-Number Functions and Probability<br />

P(A � B)<br />

Comment<br />

A<br />

is also known as the complement<br />

<strong>of</strong> event A.<br />

P(A)<br />

Mutually exclusive events Non-mutually exclusive events<br />

Giving birth to a boy or a girl Giving birth to a boy or a baby<br />

weighing more than 6 pounds<br />

Rolling a 2 or 3 on one roll <strong>of</strong> a die Rolling a 2 or an even number on one<br />

roll <strong>of</strong> a die<br />

Drawing an ace or a king on one draw Drawing an ace or a red card from a<br />

from a standard card deck standard card deck<br />

The following rule applies to mutually exclusive events.<br />

If A and B cannot occur simultaneously, then<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B)<br />

The event A (read as “not A”)<br />

contains all outcomes <strong>of</strong> the sample space that<br />

are not elements <strong>of</strong> event A.<br />

Because the events A and A are mutually exclusive,<br />

P(A � A) � P(A) � P(A)<br />

Because either event A or event A must happen, P(A � A) � 1.<br />

Thus,<br />

P(A � A) � 1<br />

P(A) � P(A) � 1<br />

P(A) � 1 � P(A)<br />

Add �P(A) to both sides.<br />

This result gives another property <strong>of</strong> compound probabilities.<br />

If A is any event, then<br />

P(A) � 1 � P(A)<br />

EXAMPLE 1 A counselor tells a student that his probability <strong>of</strong> earning a grade <strong>of</strong> D in algebra<br />

1<br />

1<br />

is 5 and his probability <strong>of</strong> earning an F is 25.<br />

Find the probability that the student<br />

earns a C or better.<br />

Solution Because “earning a D”<br />

and “earning an F”<br />

are mutually exclusive, the probability<br />

<strong>of</strong> earning a D or F is given by<br />

� 6<br />

�<br />

25<br />

1<br />

P(D � F) � P(D) � P(F)<br />

1<br />

�<br />

5 25<br />

Note that P(D and F) � 0.<br />

The probability that the student will receive a C or better is<br />

� 19<br />

� 1 �<br />

25<br />

6<br />

P(C or better) � 1 � P(D � F)<br />

25


The probability <strong>of</strong> earning a C or better is .<br />

Self Check 1 Find the probability that the student passes (earns a D or better).<br />

Independent Events<br />

Formula for P(A � B)<br />

2. Compute <strong>Probabilities</strong> <strong>of</strong> Independent Events<br />

If two events do not influence each other, they are called independent events.<br />

The events A and B are said to be independent events if and only if<br />

P(B) � P(B ƒ A) .<br />

Here are some examples <strong>of</strong> events that are independent and some that are not.<br />

Independent events Non-independent events<br />

Drawing an ace and a king on two Drawing an ace and a king on two<br />

draws from a standard card deck draws from a standard card deck<br />

with replacement without replacement<br />

A basketball player making ten free A women catching a cold and<br />

throws in a row developing a cough<br />

A student scoring two A’s on two tests The chance it will rain and the chance<br />

the sidewalks get wet<br />

In the previous section, we discussed the multiplication property for probabilities:<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B ƒ A)<br />

Substituting P(B) for P(B ƒ A) in this property gives a formula for computing<br />

probabilities <strong>of</strong> compound independent events.<br />

If A and B are independent events, then<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B)<br />

The event A <strong>of</strong> “drawing an ace from a standard deck <strong>of</strong> cards” and the event<br />

B <strong>of</strong> “tossing heads” on one toss <strong>of</strong> a coin are independent events, because neither<br />

event influences the other. Consequently,<br />

� 1<br />

�<br />

26<br />

4<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B)<br />

P(drawing an ace and tossing heads) � P(drawing an ace) � P(tossing heads)<br />

1<br />

�<br />

52 2<br />

EXAMPLE 2 The probability that a baseball player can get a hit is 3.<br />

Find the probability that<br />

she will get three hits in a row.<br />

Solution Assume that the three times at bat are independent events: One time at bat does<br />

not influence her chances <strong>of</strong> getting a hit on another turn at bat. Because<br />

, , and P(E3) � ,<br />

1<br />

P(E2) � 1<br />

P(E1) � 1<br />

3<br />

3<br />

<strong>8.8</strong> <strong>Computation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> <strong>Probabilities</strong> 8-3<br />

3<br />

19<br />

25<br />

1


8-4 Chapter 8 Natural-Number Functions and Probability<br />

P(E1 � E2 � E3) � 1 1 1 1<br />

� � �<br />

3 3 3 27<br />

The probability that she will get three hits in a row is .<br />

Self Check 2 The probability that another player can get a hit is 4.<br />

Find the probability that she<br />

will get four hits in a row.<br />

EXAMPLE 3 A die is rolled three times. Find the probability that the outcome is 6 on the first<br />

roll, an even number on the second roll, and an odd prime number on the third roll.<br />

Solution The probability <strong>of</strong> a 6 on any roll is . Because there are three even integers<br />

represented on a die, the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling an even number is<br />

.<br />

Since 3 and 5 are the only odd prime numbers on a die, the probability <strong>of</strong><br />

rolling an odd prime is P(odd prime) � P(O) � .<br />

Because these three events are independent, the probability <strong>of</strong> the events happening<br />

in succession is the product <strong>of</strong> the probabilities:<br />

2<br />

P(even number) � P(E) �<br />

1<br />

6 � 3<br />

3<br />

P(6) �<br />

1<br />

6 � 2<br />

1<br />

6<br />

� 1<br />

�<br />

36<br />

1<br />

P(six and even number and odd prime) � P(6 � E � O)<br />

� P(6) � P(E) � P(O)<br />

1 1<br />

� �<br />

6 2 3<br />

Self Check 3 Find the probability that the outcome is five on the first roll, an odd number on<br />

the second roll, and two on the third roll.<br />

EXAMPLE 4 The probability that a drug will cure dandruff is 8.<br />

However, if the drug is used,<br />

1<br />

the probability that it will cause side effects is 6.<br />

Find the probability that a patient<br />

who uses the drug will be cured and will suffer no side effects.<br />

Solution The probability that the drug will cure dandruff is . The probability <strong>of</strong><br />

having side effects is P(E) � . The probability that the patient will have no side<br />

effects is<br />

1<br />

P(C) �<br />

6<br />

1<br />

8<br />

P(E) � 1 � P(E) � 1 � 1 5<br />

�<br />

6 6<br />

Since these events are independent,<br />

� 5<br />

�<br />

48<br />

1<br />

P(cure and no side effects) � P(C � E)<br />

� P(C) � P(E)<br />

5<br />

�<br />

8 6<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1<br />

27


<strong>8.8</strong> <strong>Computation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> <strong>Probabilities</strong> 8-5<br />

Self Check 4 Find the probability that the patient will be cured and suffer side effects.<br />

24<br />

25<br />

1<br />

256<br />

1<br />

72<br />

Self Check Answers 1. 2. 3. 4. 1<br />

<strong>8.8</strong> Exercises<br />

Vocabulary and Concepts Fill in the blanks.<br />

1. A event is one event or another or one<br />

2.<br />

event followed by another.<br />

P(A � B) �<br />

3. If A and B are<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B) .<br />

, then<br />

4. The event A is read as “ .”<br />

5. P(A) �<br />

6. Two events, A and B,<br />

are called independent events<br />

when .<br />

7. If A and B are independent events, then<br />

P(A � B) � .<br />

8. If two events do not influence each other, they are<br />

called events.<br />

Practice Assume that you draw one card from a standard<br />

card deck. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> each event.<br />

9. Drawing a black card<br />

10. Drawing a jack<br />

11. Drawing a black card or an ace<br />

12. Drawing a red card or a face card<br />

Assume that you draw two cards from a standard card<br />

deck, without replacement. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> each<br />

event.<br />

13. Drawing two aces<br />

14. Drawing three aces<br />

15. Drawing a club and then another black card<br />

16. Drawing a heart and then a spade<br />

Assume that you roll two dice once. Find the<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> each result.<br />

17. Rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 7 or 6<br />

18. Rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 5 or an even sum<br />

19. Rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 10 or an odd sum<br />

20. Rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 12 or 1<br />

48<br />

Assume that you have a bucket containing 7 beige<br />

capsules, 3 blue capsules, and 6 green capsules. You<br />

make a single draw from the bucket, taking one<br />

capsule. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> each result.<br />

21. Drawing a beige or a blue capsule<br />

22. Drawing a green capsule<br />

23. Not drawing a blue capsule<br />

24. Not drawing either a beige or a blue capsule<br />

Assume that you are using the same bucket <strong>of</strong> capsules<br />

as in Exercises 21–24.<br />

25. On two draws from the bucket, find the probability<br />

<strong>of</strong> drawing a beige capsule followed by a green<br />

capsule. (Assume that the capsule is returned to<br />

the bucket after the first draw.)<br />

26. On two draws from the bucket, find the probability<br />

<strong>of</strong> drawing one blue capsule and one green<br />

capsule. (Assume that the capsule is not returned<br />

to the bucket after the first draw.)<br />

27. On three successive draws from the bucket<br />

(without replacement), find the probability <strong>of</strong><br />

failing to draw a beige capsule.<br />

28. Jeff rolls a die and draws one card from a card<br />

deck. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> his rolling a 4 and<br />

drawing a four.<br />

29. Birthday problem Three people are in an elevator<br />

together. Find the probability that all three<br />

were born on the same day <strong>of</strong> the week.<br />

30. Birthday problem Three people are on a bus<br />

together. Find the probability that at least one<br />

was born on a different day <strong>of</strong> the week from the<br />

others.<br />

31. Birthday problem Five people are in a room<br />

together. Find the probability that all five were<br />

born on a different day <strong>of</strong> the year.<br />

32. Birthday problem Five people are on a bus<br />

together. Find the probability that at least two <strong>of</strong><br />

them were born on the same day <strong>of</strong> the year.


8-6 Chapter 8 Natural-Number Functions and Probability<br />

33. Sharing homework If the probability that Rick<br />

1<br />

will solve a problem is 4 and the probability that<br />

2<br />

Dinah will solve it is 5,<br />

find the probability that at<br />

least one <strong>of</strong> them will solve it.<br />

34. Signaling A bugle is used for communication at<br />

camp. The call for dinner is based on four pitches<br />

and is five notes long. If a child can play these<br />

four pitches on a bugle, find the probability that<br />

the first five notes that the child plays will call the<br />

camp to dinner. (Assume that the child is equally<br />

likely to play any <strong>of</strong> the four pitches each time a<br />

note is blown.)<br />

A woman visits her cabin in Canada. The probability<br />

1<br />

that her lawnmower will start is 2,<br />

the probability that<br />

1<br />

her gas-powered saw will start is 3,<br />

and the probability<br />

3<br />

that her outboard motor will start is 4.<br />

Find each<br />

probability.<br />

35. That all three will start<br />

36. That none will start<br />

37. That exactly one will start<br />

38. That exactly two will start<br />

Applications<br />

39. Immigration Three children leave Thailand to<br />

start a new life in either the United States or<br />

France. The probability that May Xao will go to<br />

1<br />

1<br />

France is 3,<br />

that Tou Lia will go to France is 2,<br />

1<br />

and that May Moua will go to France is 6.<br />

Find<br />

the probability that exactly two <strong>of</strong> them will end<br />

up in the United States.<br />

40. Preparing for the GED The administrators <strong>of</strong> a<br />

program to prepare people for the high school<br />

equivalency exam have found that 80% <strong>of</strong> the students<br />

require tutoring in math, 60% need help in<br />

English, and 45% need work in both math and<br />

English. Find the probability that a student<br />

selected at random needs help with either math or<br />

English.<br />

41. Insurance losses The insurance underwriters<br />

have determined that in any one year, the probability<br />

that George will have a car accident is 0.05,<br />

and that if he has an accident, the probability<br />

that he will be hospitalized is 0.40. Find the probability<br />

that George will have an accident but not<br />

be hospitalized.<br />

42. Grading homework One instructor grades homework<br />

by randomly choosing 3 out <strong>of</strong> the 15 problems<br />

assigned. Bill did only 8 problems. What is<br />

the probability that he won’t get caught?<br />

Discovery and Writing<br />

43. Explain the difference between dependent and<br />

independent events, and give examples <strong>of</strong> each.<br />

44. Explain why a. P(A ƒ A) � 1<br />

and<br />

b. P(A ƒ A) � 0.<br />

Review Maximize P subject to the given constraints.<br />

45. P � 2x � y<br />

46. P � 3x � y<br />

x � 0<br />

y � 0<br />

μ<br />

x � 4<br />

x � 2y � 8<br />

μ<br />

x � 0<br />

y � 0<br />

y � 2<br />

x � 2<br />

x � y � 3


8.9 Odds and Mathematical Expectation<br />

Odds<br />

Comment<br />

Note that the odds for an event is<br />

the reciprocal <strong>of</strong> the odds against<br />

the event.<br />

Objectives<br />

1. Define and Compute Odds<br />

2. Define and Compute Mathematical Expectation<br />

8.9 Odds and Mathematical Expectation 8-7<br />

At the horse races, you will <strong>of</strong>ten hear phrases such as<br />

Sweet Pea is a long shot with odds <strong>of</strong> 30 to 1.<br />

or<br />

The odds on Barbaro are 8 to 5.<br />

Since the concept <strong>of</strong> odds is closely related to the concept <strong>of</strong> probability, the<br />

pay<strong>of</strong>fs on bets at the track are based on the odds for each horse in a race.<br />

When we say that the odds on Sweet Pea are 30 to 1, we generally mean that<br />

the odds against the horse are 30 to 1. As we will soon see, this is equivalent to<br />

1 1<br />

saying that the probability <strong>of</strong> Sweet Pea winning is 30 � 1 � 31.<br />

When we say that<br />

the odds on Barbaro are 8 to 5, we mean that the probability <strong>of</strong> Barbaro winning<br />

5 5<br />

is 8 � 5 � 13.<br />

We will begin this section by discussing odds.<br />

1. Define and Compute Odds<br />

The odds for an event is the probability <strong>of</strong> a favorable outcome divided by the<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> an unfavorable outcome.<br />

The odds against an event is the probability <strong>of</strong> an unfavorable outcome divided<br />

by the probability <strong>of</strong> a favorable outcome.<br />

EXAMPLE 1 The probability that a horse will win a race is 4.<br />

Find the odds for and the odds<br />

against the horse.<br />

Solution Because the probability that the horse will win is 4,<br />

the probability that the horse<br />

3<br />

will not win is . The odds for the horse are<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> a win<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> a loss �<br />

or 1 to 3. The odds against the horse are<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> a loss<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> a win �<br />

or 3 to 1.<br />

4<br />

1<br />

4<br />

3<br />

4<br />

3<br />

4<br />

1<br />

4<br />

� 1<br />

3<br />

� 3<br />

� 3<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1


8-8 Chapter 8 Natural-Number Functions and Probability<br />

Self Check 1 The probability that a horse will lose a race is 5.<br />

Find the odds for and the odds<br />

against the horse.<br />

Another way to find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> an event is to divide the number <strong>of</strong><br />

1<br />

favorable outcomes by the number <strong>of</strong> unfavorable outcomes. In Example 1, this is 3.<br />

To find the odds against an event, divide the number <strong>of</strong> unfavorable outcomes<br />

3<br />

by the number <strong>of</strong> favorable outcomes. In Example 1, this is .<br />

EXAMPLE 2 The odds against a horse are 30 to 1. Find: a. the probability that the horse will<br />

lose b. the probability that the horse will win<br />

Solution If p is the probability that the horse will lose, then 1 � p is the the probability that<br />

the horse will win. By definition, we have<br />

p � 30<br />

p � 30 � 30p<br />

31p � 30<br />

31<br />

30<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> losing<br />

Odds against an event �<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> winning<br />

p<br />

�<br />

1 1 � p<br />

Multiply both sides by 1 � p.<br />

Add 30p to both sides.<br />

Divide both sides by 31.<br />

The probability that the horse will lose is . The probability that the horse will<br />

win is 1 � .<br />

30<br />

31<br />

1<br />

�<br />

Self Check 2 The odds against a horse are 8 to 5. Find the probability that the horse will win.<br />

2. Define and Compute Mathematical Expectation<br />

Suppose we have a chance to play a simple game with the following rules:<br />

1. Roll a single die once.<br />

2. If a 6 appears, win $3.<br />

3. If a 5 appears, win $1.<br />

4. If any other number appears, win 50¢ .<br />

5. The cost to play (one roll <strong>of</strong> the die) is $1.<br />

In this game, the probability <strong>of</strong> any one <strong>of</strong> the six outcomes—rolling a 6, 5 4,<br />

1<br />

3, 2, or 1—is 6,<br />

and the winnings are $3, $1, and 50¢ . The expected winnings E can<br />

be found by using the following equation and simplifying the right side:<br />

E � 1<br />

6<br />

31<br />

31<br />

(3) � 1<br />

6<br />

(1) � 1<br />

6<br />

(0.50) � 1<br />

6<br />

�<br />

� 1<br />

1<br />

6 (6)<br />

� 1<br />

(3 � 1 � 0.50 � 0.50 � 0.50 � 0.50)<br />

6<br />

30<br />

1<br />

1 1<br />

(0.50) � (0.50) �<br />

6 6 (0.50)<br />

1


Mathematical<br />

Expectation<br />

Over the long run, we could expect to win $1 with every play <strong>of</strong> the game.<br />

Since it costs $1 to play the game, the expected gain or loss is 0. Because the<br />

expected winnings are equal to the admission price, the game is fair.<br />

If a certain event has n different outcomes with probabilities P1, P2, P3, . ..,<br />

Pn and the winnings assigned to each outcome are x1, x2, x3, . . . xn, the<br />

expected winnings, or mathematical expectation, E is given by<br />

E � P 1x 1 � P 2x 2 � P 3x 3 � p � P nx n<br />

EXAMPLE 3 It costs $1 to play the following game: Roll two dice; collect $5 if we roll a sum <strong>of</strong><br />

7, and collect $2 if we roll a sum <strong>of</strong> 11. All other numbers pay nothing. Is it wise<br />

to play the game?<br />

Solution The probability <strong>of</strong> rolling a 7 on a single roll <strong>of</strong> two dice is 36,<br />

the probability <strong>of</strong><br />

2<br />

28<br />

rolling an 11 is 36,<br />

and the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling something else is 36.<br />

The mathematical<br />

expectation is<br />

E � 6 2 28 17<br />

(5) � (2) � (0) � � $0.944<br />

36 36 36 18<br />

By playing the game for a long period <strong>of</strong> time, we can expect to get back<br />

about 95¢ for every dollar spent. For the fun <strong>of</strong> playing, the cost is about 5¢ a<br />

game. If the game is enjoyable, it might be worth the expected loss. However, the<br />

game is slightly unfair.<br />

Self Check 3 Is it wise to play the game if you win $4 when you roll a sum <strong>of</strong> 7 and $6 when you<br />

roll a sum <strong>of</strong> 11?<br />

5<br />

Self Check Answers 1. 4 to 1; 1 to 4 2. 13 3. Yes, the game is fair.<br />

8.9 Exercises<br />

Vocabulary and Concepts Fill in the blanks.<br />

1. The are the probability <strong>of</strong> a favorable<br />

outcome divided by the probability <strong>of</strong> an<br />

unfavorable outcome.<br />

2. The are the probability <strong>of</strong> an<br />

unfavorable outcome divided by the probability <strong>of</strong><br />

a favorable outcome.<br />

3. If the odds for an event are 1 to 4, the probability<br />

<strong>of</strong> winning is .<br />

4. Mathematical expectation E is given by<br />

E �<br />

.<br />

Practice<br />

1<br />

5. The probability that a horse will win a race is 5.<br />

Find the odds for and against the horse.<br />

8.9 Odds and Mathematical Expectation 8-9<br />

6. The probability that a horse will win a race is 3.<br />

Find the odds for and against the horse.<br />

7. The odds against a horse are 50 to 1. Find the<br />

probability that the horse will win.<br />

8. The odds against a horse are 7 to 5. Find the<br />

probability that the horse will lose.<br />

Assume a single roll <strong>of</strong> a die.<br />

9. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling a 6.<br />

10. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> rolling a 6.<br />

11. Find the odds against rolling a 6.<br />

12. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling an even number.<br />

13. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> rolling an even number.<br />

6<br />

2


8-10 Chapter 8 Natural-Number Functions and Probability<br />

14. Find the odds against rolling an even number.<br />

Assume a single roll <strong>of</strong> two dice.<br />

15. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 6.<br />

16. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 6.<br />

17. Find the odds against rolling a sum <strong>of</strong> 6.<br />

18. Find the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling an even sum.<br />

19. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> rolling an even sum.<br />

20. Find the odds against rolling an even sum.<br />

Assume that you are drawing one card from a standard<br />

card deck.<br />

21. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> drawing a queen.<br />

22. Find the odds against drawing a black card.<br />

23. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> drawing a face card.<br />

24. Find the odds against drawing a diamond.<br />

25. If the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> victory are 5 to 2, find the<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> victory.<br />

26. If the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> victory are 5 to 2, find the<br />

odds against victory.<br />

27. If the odds against winning are 90 to 1, find the<br />

odds in favor <strong>of</strong> winning.<br />

28. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> rolling a 7 on a single<br />

roll <strong>of</strong> two dice.<br />

29. Find the odds against tossing four heads in a row<br />

with a fair nickel.<br />

30. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> a couple having four<br />

girl babies in succession. 1Assume P(girl) � 1<br />

2 .2<br />

31. The odds against a horse are 8 to 1. Find the<br />

probability that the horse will win.<br />

32. The odds against a horse are 1 to 1. Find the<br />

probability that the horse will lose.<br />

33. It costs $2 to play the following game:<br />

a. Draw one card from a card deck.<br />

b. Collect $5 if an ace is drawn.<br />

c. Collect $4 if a king is drawn.<br />

d. Collect nothing for all other cards drawn.<br />

Is it wise to play this game? Explain.<br />

34. Lottery tickets One thousand tickets are sold<br />

for a lottery with two grand prizes <strong>of</strong> $800. Find<br />

a fair price for the tickets.<br />

35. Find the odds against a couple having three baby<br />

boys in a row. 1Assume P(boy) �<br />

36. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> tossing at least three<br />

heads in five tosses <strong>of</strong> a fair coin.<br />

37. Suppose you toss a coin five times and collect $5<br />

if you toss five heads, $4 if you toss four heads,<br />

$3 if you toss three heads, and no money for any<br />

other combination. How much should you pay to<br />

play the game if the game is to be fair?<br />

38. If you roll two dice one time and collect $10 for<br />

double 6’s and $1 for double 1’s, what is a fair<br />

price for playing the game?<br />

39. Counting an ace as 1, a face card as 10, and all<br />

others at their numerical values, find the expected<br />

value if you draw one card from a card deck.<br />

1<br />

2 .2<br />

40. Find the expected sum <strong>of</strong> one roll <strong>of</strong> two dice.<br />

41. A multiple-choice test <strong>of</strong> eight questions gives<br />

five possible answers for each question. Only one<br />

<strong>of</strong> the answers for each question is right. Find the<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> getting seven right answers by<br />

simple guessing.<br />

42. In the situation described in Exercise 41, find the<br />

odds in favor <strong>of</strong> getting seven answers right.<br />

Discovery and Writing<br />

43. If “the odds are against an event,” what can be<br />

said about its probability?<br />

44. To disguise the unlikely chance <strong>of</strong> winning, a<br />

contest promoter publishes the odds in favor <strong>of</strong><br />

winning as 0.0000000372 to 1. What are the odds<br />

against winning?<br />

Review<br />

45. Find the equation <strong>of</strong> the line perpendicular to<br />

3x � 2y � 9 and passing through the point (1, 1) .<br />

46. Find the equations <strong>of</strong> the parabolas with vertex<br />

at the point (3, �2) and passing through the<br />

origin.<br />

47. Find the equation <strong>of</strong> the circle with center at<br />

(3, 5) and tangent to the x-axis.<br />

48. Write the equation<br />

2x 2 � 4y 2 � 12x � 24y � 46 � 0<br />

in standard form, and identify the curve.


CHAPTER REVIEW<br />

<strong>8.8</strong> <strong>Computation</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Compound</strong> <strong>Probabilities</strong><br />

Definitions and Concepts Examples<br />

Chapter Review 8-11<br />

If A and B are two events, then<br />

Find the probability <strong>of</strong> drawing an ace or a heart on<br />

one draw from a standard card deck.<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B) � P(A � B)<br />

4 1<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> drawing an ace is � .<br />

52 13<br />

13 1<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a heart is � .<br />

52 4<br />

The ace <strong>of</strong> hearts has been counted both as an ace<br />

and as a heart. To get rid <strong>of</strong> the duplication, we must<br />

subtract the probability <strong>of</strong> getting the ace <strong>of</strong> hearts<br />

from the sum <strong>of</strong> the two probabilities listed above.<br />

� 4<br />

�<br />

13<br />

16<br />

�<br />

52<br />

1<br />

P(ace or a heart) � P(ace) � P(heart) � P(ace <strong>of</strong> hearts)<br />

1 1<br />

� �<br />

13 4 52<br />

If A and B cannot occur simultaneously, then<br />

Find the probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a 2 or a 3 from a<br />

standard card deck.<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B)<br />

4 1<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a 2 is � .<br />

52 13<br />

4 1<br />

The probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a 3 is � .<br />

52 13<br />

Since there is no duplication,<br />

� 2<br />

�<br />

13<br />

1<br />

P(2 or 3) � P(2) � P(3)<br />

1<br />

�<br />

13 13<br />

If A is any event, then<br />

If the probability that a horse will win a race is , the<br />

P(A) � 1 � P(A)<br />

probability that the horse will lose the race is<br />

1 � .<br />

7<br />

11<br />

4<br />

11 � 11<br />

7


8-12 Chapter 8 Natural-Number Functions and Probability<br />

If A and B are independent events, then<br />

A basketball player makes 80% <strong>of</strong> her free throws.<br />

Find the probability that she will make 2 free throws<br />

P(A � B) � P(A) � P(B)<br />

in a row.<br />

The probability that she makes 1 free throw is<br />

80% � .<br />

4<br />

Exercises<br />

82. On one draw from a standard card deck, find the<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> drawing a two or a spade.<br />

8.9 Odds and Mathematical Expectation<br />

5<br />

So the probability that she will make 2 in a row is<br />

� 4<br />

P(1 free throw � another free throw)<br />

� P(1 free throw) � P(another free throw)<br />

4 16<br />

� �<br />

5 5 25<br />

83. If the probability that a drug cures a disease is<br />

0.83, and we give the drug to 800 people with the<br />

disease, find the expected number <strong>of</strong> people who<br />

will not be cured.<br />

Definitions and Concepts Examples<br />

The odds for an event is the probability <strong>of</strong> a favorable The probability that a politician will be elected is esti-<br />

outcome divided by the probability <strong>of</strong> an unfavorable mated to be 0.7. Find the odds for and against the<br />

outcome.<br />

politician.<br />

The odds against an event is the probability <strong>of</strong> an<br />

unfavorable outcome divided by the probability <strong>of</strong> a<br />

Odds for the politician or 7 to 3.<br />

favorable outcome.<br />

Odds against the politician � or 3 to 7.<br />

0.3<br />

�<br />

3<br />

�<br />

0.7 7<br />

0.7 7<br />

�<br />

0.3 3<br />

A game is fair if the cost to play equals the expected<br />

winnings E.<br />

Suppose it costs $5 to play the following game:<br />

Roll two dice: Collect $10 if you roll a 12 or a 2.<br />

Otherwise collect $1.<br />

Is it wise to play the game?<br />

Since the probability <strong>of</strong> rolling a 12 is 36,<br />

<strong>of</strong> rolling a<br />

1<br />

34<br />

2 is 36,<br />

and <strong>of</strong> rolling something else is 36,<br />

the<br />

mathematical expectation is<br />

E � 1 1 34<br />

(10) � (10) � (1) � 1.5<br />

36 36 36<br />

Since it costs $5 to play and the expected earnings are<br />

only $1.50, this is a foolish game to play.<br />

1


Exercises<br />

84. Find the odds against a horse if the probability<br />

7<br />

that the horse will win is 8.<br />

85. Find the odds in favor <strong>of</strong> a couple having 4 baby<br />

girls in a row.<br />

5<br />

86. If the probability that Joe will marry is 6 and the<br />

3<br />

probability that John will marry is 4,<br />

find the<br />

odds against either one becoming a husband.<br />

87. If the odds against Priscilla’s graduation from<br />

10<br />

college are 11,<br />

find the probability that she will<br />

graduate.<br />

Chapter Review 8-13<br />

88. Find the expected earnings if you collect $1 for<br />

every heads you get when you toss a fair coin<br />

4 times.<br />

89. If the total number <strong>of</strong> subsets that a set with<br />

elements can have is 2 , explain why<br />

n<br />

n<br />

anb<br />

�<br />

0<br />

a n<br />

b �<br />

1<br />

a n<br />

2 b � p �<br />

a n<br />

b � 2n<br />

n

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