Abstracts of Posters 8-th European Conference on Mathematical ...

<strong>European</strong> <strong>Conference</strong> on Ma<strong>th</strong>ematical and Theoretical Biology 2011
Vector-borne diseases; Tuesday, June 28, 14:30
Ben Adams
Department <strong>of</strong> Ma<strong>th</strong>ematical Sciences, University <strong>of</strong> Ba<strong>th</strong>, UK
e-mail: b.adams@ba<strong>th</strong>.ac.uk
Durrell D. Kapan
Pacific Biosciences Research Centre, University <strong>of</strong> Hawaii, USA
e-mail: durrell@hawaii.edu
Man bites mosquito: human movement and <strong>th</strong>e urban
epidemiology <strong>of</strong> vector-borne disease
Some vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, <strong>th</strong>rive in urban environments. Eradication
and control are significant public heal<strong>th</strong> challenges. The mosquito populations
<strong>of</strong> metropolitan areas may be heterogeneously distributed in patches <strong>of</strong> high and low
density. These mosquito population patches may remain stable over time, but people
travel frequently and extensively, <strong>of</strong>ten in highly structured patterns. Here we
investigate <strong>th</strong>e role <strong>of</strong> <strong>th</strong>is type <strong>of</strong> human movement in <strong>th</strong>e epidemiology <strong>of</strong> vectorborne
pa<strong>th</strong>ogens. We use a metapopulation model in which mobile humans connect
static mosquito subpopulations. We focus on <strong>th</strong>e impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>th</strong>e size distribution
<strong>of</strong> <strong>th</strong>e mosquito subpopulations and <strong>th</strong>e variability in people’s travel patterns. We
assess how <strong>th</strong>ese factors determine <strong>th</strong>e contribution <strong>of</strong> each population subgroup
to <strong>th</strong>e basic reproductive number, <strong>th</strong>e maintenance <strong>of</strong> <strong>th</strong>e endemic equilibrium and
long-term disease persistence. We conclude <strong>th</strong>at hubs and reservoirs <strong>of</strong> infection
can be places people visit frequently, even if only briefly. A few patches wi<strong>th</strong> large
mosquito populations can make a city vulnerable to disease outbreaks. Variability
in travel people’s travel patterns can reduce <strong>th</strong>is vulnerability, but may also
enhance <strong>th</strong>e rescue effect and so increase <strong>th</strong>e persistence <strong>of</strong> endemic disease. Successful
public heal<strong>th</strong> intervention may require identifying areas wi<strong>th</strong> large mosquito
populations and a form <strong>of</strong> contact tracing <strong>th</strong>at maps <strong>th</strong>e recent movements <strong>of</strong> infected
people to pinpoint <strong>th</strong>e mosquito subpopulation from which <strong>th</strong>ey acquired <strong>th</strong>e
infection, and <strong>th</strong>ose to which <strong>th</strong>ey may have transmitted it.
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