salli | stonehage affluent london living index - Cubitt Consulting
salli | stonehage affluent london living index - Cubitt Consulting
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SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
ALWAYS THERE
CONTENTS<br />
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3<br />
2. INTRODUCING SALLI 4<br />
3. METHODOLOGY 4<br />
4. INDEX RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 6<br />
5. CONCLUSION 14<br />
APPENDICES: INDEX COMPONENTS 15<br />
ABOUT STONEHAGE 19<br />
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS<br />
We would like to thank Pirathaapan Suntharalingam from Cambridge University and Desiree Maghoo<br />
from <strong>Cubitt</strong> <strong>Consulting</strong>. We would also like to thank Professor Geoffrey Wood, Professor of Economics<br />
at CASS Business School for reviewing and verifying SALLI and the <strong>index</strong>’s underlying methodology.<br />
2 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />
SALLI, The Stonehage Affluent London Living Index measures<br />
the inflation experienced by High Net Worth (HNW) and Ultra<br />
High Net Worth (UHNW) individuals and families <strong>living</strong> in<br />
London. Wealth managers have traditionally used CPI (the<br />
Consumer Price Index) as a measure of inflation when wealth<br />
planning for their clients. At 6%, SALLI is nearly three times<br />
higher than the CPI and the gap between SALLI and the CPI<br />
is widening. Using CPI when wealth planning could therefore<br />
lead to an erosion of wealth as CPI does not account for<br />
luxury goods and services and the real inflation experienced<br />
by HNWs and UHNWs. Using a combination of SALLI and<br />
CPI, wealth managers can arrive at a more realistic inflation<br />
number experienced by their clients.<br />
An analysis of SALLI vs. CPI confirmed the following:<br />
• CPI, the inflation measure currently used by<br />
wealth managers in wealth planning is too low and<br />
needs to be adjusted upwards to mitigate against<br />
the erosion of wealth from under-estimating<br />
rising costs of <strong>living</strong> in London.<br />
• In the last twelve months, SALLI climbed 6.0%<br />
compared to CPI which rose by just 2.3%. Since<br />
2002, SALLI has climbed 13.7%, compared to<br />
CPI which has risen by 7.2%.<br />
• There is an increasing gap between the inflation<br />
of luxury goods and services as illustrated by<br />
SALLI compared to the inflation of general consumer<br />
goods and services as measured by the CPI.<br />
• The cost of renting a prime property in Central London<br />
rose by 25.0% from 2002 to 2007, whereas the purchase<br />
price of a similar property rose by 150% during the same<br />
period 1 . This highlights the extraordinary cost of<br />
purchasing property in Central London, as well as its<br />
outstanding performance as an investment asset class.<br />
During the same period, the cost of renting a similar<br />
property in Manhattan rose by 49.7%, whereas the<br />
purchase price rose by 74.0% 2 .<br />
1<br />
The SALLI <strong>index</strong> includes rental cost rather than the purchase price of property<br />
2<br />
Source: Prudential Douglas Elliman; Savills<br />
The study confirms that CPI is too conservative a measure of<br />
inflation to use when advising High and Ultra High Net Worth<br />
families on wealth management, their investments and longterm<br />
wealth planning. Using a combination of SALLI and<br />
other indices including CPI, wealth advisors should increase<br />
the inflation number used in forecasts to reflect a more<br />
realistic rate of inflation experienced by UHNW clients in<br />
order to safeguard clients’ wealth goals.<br />
SALLI is an <strong>index</strong> comprising a basket of luxury goods and<br />
services determined by the Stonehage Group, based on the<br />
firm’s knowledge and experience of the spending patterns<br />
of London-based UHNW families. Prices in the <strong>index</strong> are the<br />
recommended retail prices (inc. VAT) and SALLI accounts for<br />
the frequency of purchase of each item over one year. Prices<br />
were compared between 2002, 2006 and 2007, keeping<br />
the frequency of purchases of each item consistent for<br />
each year.<br />
Prices for SALLI were collected at the end of July 2007. The<br />
study compares SALLI to the CPI at the end of July 2007.<br />
The Stonehage Group provides specialist private client<br />
advisory and fiduciary services to HNW individuals and<br />
families around the world, with assets under administration<br />
of $24 billion.<br />
3
2. INTRODUCING SALLI<br />
The Stonehage Affluent London Lifestyle Index (SALLI)<br />
intends to provide an indication of the trends in the cost<br />
of <strong>living</strong> for HNW and UHNWs. This is important because<br />
financial objectives of HNWs are likely to be based on<br />
real returns on capital, in which inflation is a fundamental<br />
input. For example, a family’s wealth objective might be<br />
to double real wealth (after inflation and <strong>living</strong> costs) over<br />
a 25 year period. Therefore, monitoring actual inflation<br />
experienced by HNWs is essential in wealth planning, to<br />
ensure that financial objectives are met.<br />
SALLI tracks the prices of luxury items from 2002 to 2007,<br />
enabling the calculation of luxury inflation. SALLI will<br />
therefore allow Stonehage to more accurately assess the<br />
costs that HNWs face and arrive at a more appropriate<br />
inflation figure, so that recommended investment<br />
strategies are based on more realistic spending patterns.<br />
SALLI is the first Sterling based luxury <strong>index</strong> of this type<br />
and it consists of luxury goods and services purchased by<br />
London-based UHNW families of four including two children,<br />
over the period of a year.<br />
The paper also compares SALLI to the CPI, UK’s current<br />
headline measure of inflation and also with the RPI and<br />
RPIX (the previous target inflation measure) to establish<br />
whether luxury inflation, as expressed by SALLI, is<br />
substantially higher than inflation experienced by the<br />
average consumer, as measured by CPI, RPI, RPIX 3 .<br />
Stonehage was established in 1976 and is a leading private<br />
client wealth management and fiduciary services group.<br />
Stonehage is headquartered in Jersey and has offices in<br />
the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Israel and South Africa.<br />
The group provides specialist private client advisory and<br />
fiduciary services to HNW individuals and families around<br />
the world. Stonehage is also active in global private<br />
client and institutional asset management via its wholly<br />
owned subsidiary, TriAlpha, which has offices in Jersey,<br />
London and South Africa.<br />
3. METHODOLOGY<br />
4 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
A basket of luxury goods and services was determined<br />
by Stonehage, based on their knowledge and experience<br />
of the spending patterns of London based UHNWs. In<br />
order to compare how prices of these goods and services<br />
have changed, a Laspeyres <strong>index</strong> was constructed. This<br />
weights every item in the luxury basket by the frequency<br />
of purchase in a year. The frequency of purchase in each<br />
year was then kept constant so that any change in the<br />
<strong>index</strong> was due to changes in the price not quantites of<br />
the item or service purchased. A Laspeyres <strong>index</strong> was<br />
used as opposed to a Paasche <strong>index</strong> because the former<br />
assumes that the frequency of purchase per year remains<br />
constant between the years of comparison, whilst the<br />
latter does not. Changing the frequency of purchases<br />
between the years would measure changes in price and<br />
quantity, as opposed to just prices. In essence, the sole<br />
aim is to monitor price variations, which requires us to<br />
keep the frequency of purchase constant and hence the<br />
adoption of a Laspeyres <strong>index</strong>.<br />
In order to calculate a value for the percentage rise in<br />
the cost of <strong>living</strong> for HNW individuals over the past 5<br />
years, the formula below was applied to the prices and<br />
frequency of purchased items.<br />
Laspeyres Index<br />
P L = (P i,2007.Qi)<br />
(P i,2002.Qi)<br />
3<br />
A detailed outline and comparison of the CPI, RPI and RPIX can be found in section 4.1<br />
Pi,2007 / Pi,2002 = Price of item ‘i’ in 2007/2002<br />
Qi = yearly purchase frequency
A Laspeyres <strong>index</strong> of this type can overstate HNW inflation<br />
since most consumers typically respond to price changes by<br />
altering the quantities that they purchase. More specifically, an<br />
increase in the price of an item might encourage consumers<br />
to purchase less of the item in question, substituting other<br />
items in its place. Hence, since the assumed frequency of<br />
purchase remains unchanged in SALLI, these items receive a<br />
greater weighting than is appropriate, overstating the value<br />
of inflation. Nevertheless, since HNW individuals may be less<br />
price sensitive than the average consumer, any exaggeration<br />
is likely to be small. Whilst individuals might pay more<br />
for a small improvement to an item, it does not mean<br />
that they will be insensitive to a change in the price of an<br />
unchanged item, since this will be affected by the availability<br />
of substitutes. However, with luxury goods and services,<br />
one is often buying the brand which makes substituting<br />
goods more difficult than with less heavily branded goods<br />
and services.<br />
In addition to looking at how prices have changed in the<br />
last year (2006-2007), prices of luxury goods and services<br />
were also collected for 2002, to determine how prices have<br />
changed in the last five years.<br />
SALLI (2006-2007) will serve as a proxy for luxury inflation<br />
for next year (2006-2007) and will allow Stonehage to tailor<br />
more appropriate investment recommendations based on<br />
more realistic increases in the cost of <strong>living</strong> experienced by<br />
HNW individuals.<br />
P L = (P i,2007.Qi)<br />
(P i,2006.Qi)<br />
Unlike the CPI which represents inflation of goods and<br />
services purchased by the average consumer, SALLI does<br />
not include every single item that a typical HNW individual<br />
would purchase. An arithmetic mean of the inflation for<br />
each item was also calculated to provide an overview of the<br />
price trends that luxury goods and services experience on<br />
a single item basis. In effect, this uses the notion of single<br />
purchase, where the frequency of purchase per year of each<br />
item is one.<br />
Prices were mostly obtained from the respective marketing<br />
or PR departments of the goods and services that comprise<br />
SALLI. These are all recommended retail prices including VAT,<br />
except in cases where company advisors have provided an<br />
average of the tariffs charged for each year. The latter was<br />
more appropriate in cases where consumers would regularly<br />
face different rates (i.e. the Royal Opera House where the<br />
tariff would depend on the opera).<br />
Furthermore, a number of the goods and services in the<br />
luxury basket were upgraded or possibly discontinued over<br />
the years. In these cases we have used an equivalent item<br />
for each year as advised by the respective retail or marketing<br />
team for each item. Since the <strong>index</strong> seeks to provide an<br />
overview of the trends in the cost of <strong>living</strong> for HNW<br />
individuals, changes have been allowed in the quality and<br />
specifications of the item in some cases. For example, we<br />
compared the price of a highest specification Range Rover<br />
for 2002, 2006 and 2007; our assumption being that a<br />
HNW individuals would not want to purchase a Range Rover<br />
similar to the highest end model in 2002 in the year 2007.<br />
We have not made any adjustment for quality change. A<br />
higher price for an improved product does not necessarily<br />
mean that the “true” price has increased. However, this<br />
will only cause a small upward bias to SALLI, since the<br />
vast majority of goods in this <strong>index</strong> do not display regular<br />
improvement through time – e.g. opera performances, which<br />
of course fluctuate in quality! In addition, luxury goods and<br />
services which are the most costly can also have the effect<br />
of increasing demand.<br />
A few of the goods and services in the luxury basket were<br />
priced in either Dollars or Euros. These prices were converted<br />
to their Sterling equivalents using an average exchange rate<br />
for the year in question, as opposed to today’s exchange<br />
rate, in order to reflect more accurately the cost at the time<br />
of purchase.<br />
5
4. INDEX RESULTS AND ANALYSIS<br />
4.1 SALLI VS. CPI/RPIX/RPI<br />
To monitor SALLI against inflation for the average consumer<br />
we have compared SALLI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI),<br />
the Retail Price Index (RPI) and the Retail Price Index minus<br />
mortgage interest repayments (RPIX). The most appropriate<br />
measure of inflation is very much dependent on the nature<br />
of the analysis at hand.<br />
CPI is the official UK price <strong>index</strong> used by the Bank of<br />
England to measure inflation. The CPI consists of a basket<br />
of goods, weighted by frequency of purchase over one year,<br />
using Laspeyres. Every few years, the frequency of purchase<br />
and items are updated. Its use of the Laspeyres method<br />
makes this <strong>index</strong> particularly appropriate for comparison<br />
with SALLI.<br />
How the baskets compare<br />
4<br />
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the European equivalent of the CPI<br />
6 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
There are numerous differences between the CPI, the RPI and<br />
the RPIX. The CPI is the UK equivalent of the HICP 4 , which<br />
is the European Union’s official price <strong>index</strong>. CPI excludes<br />
a number of elements mainly related to housing that are<br />
present in both the RPI and the RPIX. These elements include<br />
council tax and various owner-occupier housing costs such<br />
as estate agents’ conveyancing fees and buildings insurance.<br />
In addition, the CPI also excludes trade union subscriptions<br />
and vehicle excise duty.
The CPI includes a number of items that are overlooked<br />
by both the RPI and RPIX. These include unit trust and<br />
stockbroker fees, university accommodation fees, foreign<br />
students’ university tuition fees and foreign exchange<br />
commission for purchases of Sterling by overseas<br />
visitors. The RPIX is simply the RPI with mortgage interest<br />
repayments excluded.<br />
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) emphasises that the<br />
CPI is not designed as a cost of <strong>living</strong> indicator but is a<br />
“macroeconomic” measure since certain areas that contribute<br />
significantly to <strong>living</strong> costs, such as housing, are overlooked<br />
by the <strong>index</strong>. The RPI and RPIX are more comprehensive,<br />
although they exclude expenditure by the highest 4.0% of<br />
Table 1: Changes in the indices from 2002-2007<br />
Year<br />
5 ONS RPI department<br />
earners, which further advances the claim for the need of a<br />
specific price <strong>index</strong> tailored to HNW individuals. Furthermore,<br />
the RPI is a more appropriate measure of the costs of<br />
<strong>living</strong> than the RPIX, since the latter excludes mortgage<br />
interest payments, which account for approximately 5.5%<br />
of <strong>living</strong> costs 5 .<br />
It is interesting to note that from 2002-07, whilst the CPI<br />
increased by 7.2%, the RPI by 12.4% and the RPIX by 10.6%,<br />
SALLI rose by 13.7%. This highlights how the significant<br />
differences between changes in lifestyle costs of HNW<br />
individuals compare to the average consumer and confirms<br />
that CPI vastly underestimates inflation experienced by<br />
HNW individuals.<br />
Percentage Increase In<br />
CPI RPI RPIX SALLI<br />
2002-06 4.82 8.97 7.48 7.31<br />
2002-07 7.23 12.40 10.62 13.79<br />
2006-07 2.30 3.18 2.92 6.04<br />
7
Table 2: Changes in the ratio of SALLI to the other indices<br />
Year<br />
Percentage Increase In Ratios<br />
CPI RPI RPIX SALLI SALLI/CPI SALLI/RPI SALLI/RPIX<br />
2002-06 4.82 8.97 7.48 7.31 1.52 0.81 0.98<br />
2006-07 2.30 3.20 2.90 6.04 2.63 1.89 2.08<br />
Table 2 shows the changes occurring to the ratio of SALLI to<br />
the rate of inflation for the average consumer from 2002-06<br />
and from 2006-07 using the CPI, RPI and RPIX.<br />
The ratio of SALLI to the CPI has risen from 1.5 (2002-06) to<br />
2.6 (2006-07). Similarly, the ratios of SALLI to the RPI and<br />
RPIX have risen from 0.8 (2002-06) to 1.9 (2006-07) and<br />
0.9 (2002-06) to 2.0 (2006-07) respectively, implying that<br />
the difference of price inflation for luxury versus non luxury<br />
goods is widening i.e. prices for luxury items are increasing<br />
faster than prices for normal consumer goods and services.<br />
4.2 SALLI VERSUS CHANGE IN THE<br />
ARITHMETIC MEAN OF PRICES OF<br />
SINGLE PURCHASE GOODS AND<br />
SERVICES<br />
SALLI, which measures how the cost of “a basket” of<br />
luxury goods and services changes over time, showed an<br />
increase of 13.7% from 2002-2007. Because the basket<br />
does not represent every luxury item purchased by HNWs,<br />
we calculated the arithmetic mean of single unit prices in<br />
2002, 2006 and 2007 to consider by how much the average<br />
product and service has risen. The average increase of the<br />
8 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
basket was 38.4%, this finding confirms that luxury goods<br />
and services are subject to high inflation as SALLI suggests.<br />
In addition, SALLI showed a lower price increase than the<br />
arithmetic mean of unit prices, which suggests that SALLI<br />
is weighted in favour of goods and services that have<br />
generated less price inflation per unit. We can therefore infer<br />
that those items which experienced relatively smaller price<br />
increases were more heavily purchased by HNW individuals.<br />
In addition, taking the arithmetic average of the price rises<br />
experienced for each item would be inaccurate and would<br />
vastly overstate high net worth inflation.<br />
The average price rose 23.5% over four years from 2002-06<br />
and 10.0% from 2006-07. As with SALLI, demand and supply<br />
side pressures have intensified in the last year, causing price<br />
inflation to accelerate for luxury goods and services.<br />
4.2.1 HOW PRICES HAVE CHANGED IN<br />
EACH SPENDING CATEGORY<br />
Segmentation of SALLI provides greater insight into the<br />
categories of items that are exerting upward and downward<br />
pressure on SALLI. Table 3 and 4 consider the average price<br />
of the items in each category.
Table 3: Price level increases per category<br />
Category Price level increase 2002-07 (%) Price level increase 2006-07 (%)<br />
Home 18.84 4.97<br />
Transport 13.03 2.32<br />
Food and Drink 78.57 19.30<br />
Children 34.66 13.80<br />
Investments of Passion 52.19 12.43<br />
Leisure (Travel, Hobbies,<br />
Entertainment)<br />
37.15 11.59<br />
Luxury Goods and Services 21.34 3.11<br />
All Items 38.46 10.04<br />
This segmentation suggests that Food and Drink and Investments of Passion are the categories that have experienced the largest<br />
increase in price from 2002-07. However, this is based on arithmetic mean prices and does not account for quantities of goods/<br />
services purchased.<br />
Table 4: Change in expenditure by category from 2002 to 2007 (using frequency to weight expenditure)<br />
Category % Expenditure 2002 % Expenditure 2006 % Expenditure 2007<br />
Home 21.07 22.43 23.21<br />
Transport 49.57 43.53 39.68<br />
Food and Drink 1.45 2.23 3.53<br />
Children 3.60 4.33 4.36<br />
Investments of Passion 0.57 0.65 0.67<br />
Leisure (Travel, Hobbies,<br />
Entertainment)<br />
17.76 20.57 22.15<br />
Luxury Goods and Services 5.97 6.26 6.41<br />
Further analysis (Table 4) of the share of total expenditure accounted for by each category of spending reflects the trend that the<br />
share of spending on all of the categories has been increasing slightly, at the expense of transport, which experienced a dramatic fall<br />
in the share of expenditure from 49.5% (2002) to 39.6%(2007). This is likely to be due to increased competition within the sector<br />
and increasing supply as opposed to diminishing demand.<br />
9
4.2.2 NOTAbLE PRICE TRENDS<br />
Price trends vary across the different items in SALLI, for<br />
example, the price of a case of Lafite Rothschild 2000 has<br />
risen by more than a factor of three from 2002-2007, now<br />
standing at £9,250. Supply is constrained given that only an<br />
estimated 15,000-20,000 cases were produced.<br />
The main factor contributing to the remarkable increase<br />
in price has been surging demand, due to increases in<br />
wealth creation around the world. This is highlighted by the<br />
substantial increase in the number of HNW individuals rising<br />
from 7.3 million at the end of 2002 to 9.5 million by 2007 6 .<br />
Other factors might include the growth of interest in wine<br />
as an investment class. A number of indices have recently<br />
launched such as the Liv-ex <strong>index</strong> 7 , which tracks the prices<br />
of a large number of expensive wines and highlights wine<br />
as an investment opportunity as well as investment funds<br />
specialising in wine (Fine Wine Fund, Wine Investment Fund).<br />
In addition, Lafite 2000 is in limited supply.<br />
Table 5: Goods and services that have come down in price<br />
Item<br />
NetJets entry<br />
level aircraft<br />
Virginian Yacht<br />
Charter<br />
(1 week)<br />
Hotel Villa del<br />
Sol, Mexico<br />
(2 weeks)<br />
Price ($)<br />
2002<br />
Price ($)<br />
2006<br />
Price ($)<br />
2007<br />
10 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
Although, one could argue that most of the Lafite 2000 is<br />
yet to be consumed, the ‘effective supply’ is likely to be low<br />
since many individuals who have bought cases are storing<br />
their supply to either sell or drink at some point in the<br />
future. Another possibility is that some wine may be tied up<br />
in the form of investment funds. In this case both increased<br />
demand and restricted supply have put upward pressure<br />
on its price.<br />
Similarly, booming demand and restricted supply has driven<br />
the enormous increase in price for Dom Perignon 1990. For<br />
the purposes of the <strong>index</strong>, we chose to use the same wine<br />
and champagne for 2002, 2006 and 2007, since substituting<br />
wines would introduce further subjectivity.<br />
The only three items to experience a price fall from 2002-<br />
2007 were the NetJets entry level aircraft, Edmiston’s Virginian<br />
yacht charter for one week and two weeks at Hotel Villa del<br />
Sol, Mexico.<br />
Price (£) 2002 Price (£) 2006 Price (£) 2007<br />
375,000 400,000 400,000 248,508.95 215,517.24 201,511.34<br />
262,500 290,000 294,000 173,956.26 156,250.00 148,110.83<br />
16,380 19,600 21,000 10,854.87 10,560.34 10,579.35<br />
6 Data obtained from Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Reports<br />
7 The Liv-ex 100 Index is the fine wine benchmark <strong>index</strong>. It is priced off the mid-price as quoted on the Liv-ex platform and supply and scarcity<br />
weighted. The Liv-ex 100 – Fine Wine Index “the wine world’s version of the S&P 500.” (Financial Times, Jun 07).The Liv-ex 100 <strong>index</strong> has gone up<br />
from 94.96 in Jan 02 to 174.69 in Jan 07, representing an 84.0% (2sf) increase in five years.
However, in terms of the American Dollar, the price of each<br />
rose by $25,000, $31,500 and $4,620 respectively. Thus,<br />
the main reason for the fall in the price of each of these<br />
items was the substantial appreciation of the Pound Sterling<br />
against the American Dollar, which completely offset the<br />
increase in price in Dollar terms.<br />
Table 6: Items which experienced the smallest increase in price 2002 to 2006<br />
Rank Item<br />
Percentage change<br />
in price (2002-06)<br />
Average yearly<br />
percentage change<br />
in price<br />
48 A box of Cohiba Siglo V’s 7.92 1.92<br />
49 Virgin Upper Class flight to New York 7.25 1.77<br />
50 Partners Desk, Dutch Connection 1.76 0.44<br />
51 Child Rush Seat Chair from Dragons 0.00 0.00<br />
51 Purdey Shotgun 0.00 0.00<br />
51 Burberry Women’s Trench Coat 0.00 0.00<br />
51 Annual membership of the Walbrook Club 0.00 0.00<br />
55 2 weeks at Hotel Villa del Sol, Mexico -2.71 -0.67<br />
56 Virginian Yacht Charter for one week -10.18 -2.45<br />
57 NetJets entry level aircraft -13.28 -3.17<br />
8 These exchange rates are an average for each year, with data from www.statistics.gov.uk<br />
The exchange rate stood at $1.51 = £1 in 2002, rising to<br />
$1.87 = £1 in 2006, reaching $1.99 = £1 in 2007 8 .<br />
Increased competition may also have impacted the Dollar<br />
price of these three items. For example, improvements in<br />
the first class service of commercial airlines may have put<br />
pressure on private jet companies to lower prices.<br />
11
Table 7: Items which experienced the smallest increase in price 2006 to 2007<br />
Rank Item<br />
12 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
Percentage change<br />
in price (2006-07)<br />
42 Hamley’s 1920’s Classic Steiff Bear 0.00<br />
42 The Ivy 0.00<br />
42 Zafferano 0.00<br />
42 Partners Desk, Dutch Connection 0.00<br />
42 2 Business Premier Eurostar return tickets to Paris 0.00<br />
42 Housekeeper, Beauchamp 0.00<br />
42 Woman’s haircut, Senior Stylist at Michael John, 25 Albemarle Street 0.00<br />
42 Burberry Women’s Trench Coat 0.00<br />
42 Annual Quintessentially Membership 0.00<br />
42 Clive Christian ‘X’ Perfume 0.00<br />
42 Annual membership of the Walbrook Club 0.00<br />
42 Fortnum and Mason Christmas Hamper 0.00<br />
42 Chauffeur First Class, Brunel (S Class Mercedes) 0.00<br />
55 Virginian Yacht Charter for one week -5.21<br />
56 NetJets entry level aircraft -6.50<br />
57 Breast Enhancement Surgery, 111 Harley Street -10.00<br />
Tables 6 and 7 list items that experienced the smallest price increases. These goods and services tend to be those where supply is<br />
plentiful and competition is more intense.
On the other hand, the two tables below indicate that those<br />
items that experienced the largest price increases tend to<br />
be those where restricted supply creates exclusivity, such<br />
as caviar, luxury housing and fine wines/champagnes. This<br />
is in contrast to items in tables 6 and 7 where the good or<br />
Table 8: Goods and services demonstrating the highest price increase 2002 to 2006<br />
Rank Item<br />
Table 9: Goods and services demonstrating the highest price increase 2002 to 2007<br />
Rank Item<br />
service in question is more easily reproduced. This confirms<br />
a close correlation i.e. goods that experienced high inflation<br />
over the last year are likely to experience high inflation next<br />
year - with the exception of the same – housing if there is a<br />
surge in interest rates for example.<br />
Percentage change in price<br />
(2002-06)<br />
Average yearly percentage<br />
change in price<br />
1 Case of Lafite Rothschild 2000 103 19.36<br />
2 1 kg Beluga Caviar 100 18.92<br />
3 Case of Dom Perignon 1990 72.93 14.67<br />
4 Art Index 52.84 11.19<br />
5 Annual Quintessentially Membership 50 10.67<br />
6 Annual Membership of Soho House 50 10.67<br />
7 Gordon Ramsay, 68 Hospital Road 43.94 9.53<br />
8 Hakkasan 41.67 9.10<br />
9 Maintenance of 4 Polo Ponies 39.67 8.71<br />
10<br />
Chauffeur First Class, Brunel<br />
(S Class Mercedes)<br />
37.50 8.29<br />
Percentage change in price<br />
(2006-07)<br />
1 Case of Lafite Rothschild 2000 116.98<br />
2 Annual Membership of Soho House 50.00<br />
3 Child Rush Seat Chair from Dragons 41.17<br />
4 Case of Dom Perignon 1990 39.13<br />
5 1 kg Beluga Caviar 27.78<br />
6 Limited Edition Patek Phillippe Calatrava 26.67<br />
7 Season Executive Box hire at Chelsea Football Club 25.00<br />
8 3500 sq ft house in Belgravia 21.50<br />
9 Annual Membership of Dorchester Gym and Spa 20.00<br />
13
5. CONCLUSION<br />
The study confirms that CPI is too conservative a measure of<br />
inflation to use when advising High and Ultra High Net Worth<br />
families on wealth management, their investments and longterm<br />
wealth planning.<br />
Using SALLI, Stonehage will increase the inflation number used<br />
in forecasts to reflect a more realistic rate of inflation experienced<br />
by UHNW clients, thereby safeguarding clients’ wealth goals.<br />
A CASE STUDY 9<br />
A typical investment objective for a wealthy family may be to<br />
double their real (i.e. after expenditure and inflation) capital<br />
base every 25 years.<br />
Using CPI at an annual average rate of 1.4% over the last<br />
five years and assuming an annual spending rate of 4%, the<br />
required investment growth rate to meet this wealth objective<br />
is 8.4% per annum.<br />
Using SALLI at 2.6% annualised over the last five years, the required<br />
investment growth rate required to meet the families’ wealth<br />
objective is 9.6% per annum to prevent wealth erosion.<br />
Pounds Sterling (millions)<br />
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14 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
The margin of error, i.e. the potential shortfall if the CPI is used<br />
rather than SALLI by the end of year 25 is high. For a family<br />
with £50 million of initial capital, the potential shortfall is £46<br />
million. Similarly, for a family with £10 million of initial capital,<br />
the potential shortfall is £9 million.<br />
Because of the nature of compounding, small changes in<br />
inflation rates can lead to large changes in spending power over<br />
time. Since inflation experienced by HNWs is higher than CPI,<br />
both families will experience a large and unexpected erosion of<br />
buying power unless they base their targeted annual returns on<br />
a higher, more appropriate level of inflation.<br />
Luxury inflation as measured by SALLI has increased over<br />
the last year to 6%. Using this inflation figure, the required<br />
investment growth rate for next year is 13.2% to achieve these<br />
wealth goals.<br />
In conclusion, since HNWs also purchase goods and services<br />
tracked by CPI, wealth managers should use a combination of<br />
SALLI and CPI to reflect the real inflation experienced by HNWs.<br />
In general, the higher the level of investable wealth, the higher<br />
the SALLI component should be of the inflation number used.<br />
CAPITAL VALUE AFTER EXPENDITURE AND INVESTMENT GROWTH<br />
9 All numbers in the case study are to 1 decimal place<br />
End of Year<br />
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SALLI Target<br />
(based on 6%)<br />
SALLI Target<br />
(based on 2.6%)<br />
CPI Target<br />
Rate of Return<br />
13.2%<br />
9.6%<br />
8.4%
APPENDIX 1<br />
COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />
Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />
Flowers, Orlando<br />
Hamilton<br />
12 Turnbull and Asser<br />
two-fold 200 shirt<br />
Season Executive Box<br />
hire at Chelsea Football<br />
Club<br />
Annual Membership of<br />
Soho House<br />
Aston Martin Vanquish<br />
S V12<br />
For a 5 bedroom house (average<br />
estimate)<br />
Prices per season are inclusive of VAT<br />
and prices start at each of those shown<br />
Annual price of membership for access to<br />
all houses - number of houses has risen<br />
from 2002 to 2007<br />
The Vanquish S V12 was only released in<br />
2004 - the price for 2002 is for a Vanquish<br />
V12 in September 2002. Prices for all three<br />
years are for a brand new car<br />
Frequency<br />
(purchased<br />
per year)<br />
200.00 250.00 275.00 52<br />
2,340.00 3,000.00 3,120.00 1<br />
70,500.00 94,000.00 117,500.00 1<br />
400.00 600.00 900.00 1<br />
159,995.00 185,000.00 188,000.00 1/3<br />
Purdey shotgun 12-bore side by side gun 54,640.00 54,640.00 57,340.00 1/3<br />
A box of Cohiba<br />
Siglo V’s<br />
From Hunters and Frankou; a box of 25 467.00 504.00 521.00 6<br />
Panerai Luminor<br />
Submersible<br />
Limited Edition Patek<br />
Phillippe Calatrava<br />
Case of Lafite<br />
Rothschild 2000<br />
Case of Dom Perignon<br />
1990<br />
1882 £1 stamp<br />
4 Lion King Musical<br />
Tickets<br />
Hamley’s 1920’s classic<br />
Steiff bear<br />
Annual Wentworth Golf<br />
Club Membership<br />
Automatic mechanical, exclusive Paneri<br />
OPIII Calibre movement<br />
4,300.00 4,900.00 5,400.00 1/3<br />
Stainless Steel Finish 12,000.00 15,000.00 19,000.00 1/3<br />
Case of 12 2,100.00 4,263.00 9,250.00 3<br />
Case of 12 665.00 1,150.00 1,600.00 3<br />
Brown-lilac white paper stamp, near mint<br />
condition and mounted<br />
Price for 2 adults, 2 children in basket<br />
(no concession for children). Price for<br />
Saturday matinee, highest tariff seats<br />
18,000.00 22,000.00 24,000.00 1/3<br />
170.00 220.00 236.00 1<br />
Non-limited edition 1920’s classic 95.00 115.00 115.00 1<br />
For one person; includes access to golf<br />
facilities, clubhouse, bar, restaurant and<br />
spa<br />
3,912.00 5,016.00 5,268.00 1<br />
Nobu London, 19 Old<br />
Park Lane<br />
The Ivy<br />
Prices for an average meal from the<br />
Zagat 2002, 2006 and 2007 surveys,<br />
including one drink and service as a<br />
56.00<br />
44.00<br />
67.00<br />
53.00<br />
71.00<br />
53.00<br />
10<br />
10<br />
Gordon Ramsay, 68<br />
Hospital Road<br />
benchmark. Hakkasan in 2002 was<br />
relatively new so price was said to be<br />
66.00 95.00 98.00 10<br />
Hakkasan over £36 in Zagat survey - taken to be 36.00 51.00 56.00 10<br />
Le Caprice<br />
Zafferano<br />
Tamarind<br />
£36. Frequencies assume that individuals<br />
are present in London for 9 months of<br />
the year and go out to eat twice a week<br />
45.00<br />
47.00<br />
39.00<br />
53.00<br />
56.00<br />
47.00<br />
54.00<br />
56.00<br />
49.00<br />
10<br />
10<br />
10<br />
15
APPENDIX 1 (CONTINUED)<br />
COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />
Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />
Partners Desk, Dutch<br />
Connection<br />
Child Rush Seat Chair<br />
from Dragons<br />
Annual Queen’s Tennis<br />
Club Membership<br />
Gold Sovereign Coin<br />
2 Business Premier<br />
Eurostar return tickets<br />
to Paris<br />
Range Rover, top of the<br />
range<br />
Woman’s haircut<br />
Royal Opera House Box<br />
for a full length opera<br />
Breast Enhancement<br />
Surgery, 111 Harley<br />
Street<br />
Burberry Women’s<br />
Trench Coat<br />
Rental price for a<br />
3500 sq ft house in<br />
Kensington and Chelsea<br />
NetJets entry level<br />
aircraft<br />
Virginian Yacht Charter<br />
for one week<br />
16 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
Frequency<br />
(purchased<br />
per year)<br />
Large desk, polished and leathered 1,135.00 1,155.00 1,155.00 1/5<br />
Child Rush Seat Chair - one of most<br />
popular items from the past few years<br />
Club was purchased by members 22 May<br />
2007 so to join, at least one share must<br />
be bought (approx £11000). Prices are<br />
for full membership<br />
For each year prices are for the<br />
sovereign released that year<br />
Tickets are fully flexible and exclude<br />
cab journeys. The price for 2002 is the<br />
business premier equivalent<br />
Top of the range Vogue SE has changed<br />
from ‘ 02 to’ 07 from a 6 cylinder to an<br />
8 cylinder engine as well as changes to<br />
the interior and features. For each year,<br />
the price is for a brand new car<br />
Senior Stylist at Michael John, 25<br />
Albemarle Street<br />
Prices are an average for each year and<br />
are for a Grand Tier box to seat 4 people<br />
99.88 99.88 141.00 1/3<br />
1,100.00 1,300.00 1,560.00 1<br />
85.00 110.00 120.00 1/5<br />
405.00 450.00 450.00 2<br />
51,810.00 62,510.00 74,900.00 1/3<br />
90.00 110.00 110.00 10<br />
560.00 640.00 660.00 4<br />
4,500.00 5,000.00 4,500.00 1/3<br />
London collection, classic trench coat 695.00 695.00 695.00 1<br />
Data from Knight Frank negotiator -<br />
average price per week<br />
Fractional ownership programme and<br />
price is for 50 hours. Aircraft for 2002<br />
was a Citation Bravo whereas for 2006/7<br />
this was changed to a Hawker 400XP.<br />
Converted using exchange rates at<br />
the time and operational costs were<br />
excluded<br />
Edmiston Yacht Company, prices for high<br />
season. Note that refurbishment work<br />
may have been carried out on yachts<br />
over the years. Currency conversion<br />
using exchange rate at the time -<br />
Sterling has appreciated strongly since<br />
absolute prices in dollars have been<br />
rising<br />
4,000.00 4,550.00 5,000.00 52<br />
248,508.95 215,517.24 201,511.34 1<br />
173,956.26 156,250.00 148,110.83 1
APPENDIX 1 (CONTINUED)<br />
COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />
Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />
A weekend in George<br />
V, Paris<br />
Annual Membership of<br />
Dorchester Gym and<br />
Spa<br />
Art Index<br />
Annual Quintessentially<br />
Membership<br />
One term of fees<br />
for two seniors at<br />
Westminister School<br />
Bespoke Tailored<br />
Tuxedo, Ozwald<br />
Boateng<br />
2 Wimbledon men’s<br />
final debenture tickets<br />
Clive Christian ‘X’<br />
Perfume<br />
Duplex Suite for 2, based on 2 floors<br />
and covers 115 sq m. Prices for the first<br />
week of June. For basket, prices for a<br />
weekend - convert using exchange rate<br />
at the time<br />
Membership includes use of all club<br />
facilities<br />
Artprice Global Index - includes<br />
global paintings, sculpture,<br />
tapestry and drawings.<br />
Values are <strong>index</strong>ed from Jan ‘02. Index<br />
levels for 2006/07 are also for January<br />
Membership has changed over the<br />
past few years with 3 tariffs currently<br />
available. The memberships for 2006/07<br />
are of the variety most similar to the<br />
service offered in 2002 (lowest tariff<br />
offered)<br />
2 children in the basket, boarding and 3<br />
terms per year<br />
Diamond duff 100% wool super 140<br />
material - average estimate<br />
Frequency<br />
(purchased<br />
per year)<br />
943.20 1,261.33 1,282.31 1<br />
1,200.00 1,500.00 1,800.00 1<br />
100.00 152.84 182.06 1<br />
500.00 750.00 750.00 1<br />
12,576.00 16,210.00 17,304.00 3<br />
5,500.00 6,500.00 7,000.00 1<br />
Average trading rates, singles final 6,000.00 7,000.00 7,600.00 1<br />
Women’s perfume 30ml 350.00 460.00 460.00 1<br />
Boodles Ring<br />
Raindance platinum ring with a triple<br />
row of diamonds<br />
5,500.00 6,000.00 6,500.00 1<br />
Boodles Necklace Raindance double collar platinum ring 45,000.00 50,000.00 55,000.00 1<br />
Annual membership of<br />
the Walbrook Club<br />
For one person 750.00 750.00 750.00 1<br />
Virgin Upper Class flight<br />
to New York<br />
2 days’ Grouse Shooting<br />
Fortnum and Mason<br />
Christmas Hamper<br />
Pheasant Shooting<br />
Package<br />
Virgin Atlantic restricted mid july flights<br />
for each year; also mid-week travel.<br />
Jim Gale Country Sports Agency - 12<br />
brace per gun per day<br />
This was the classic christmas hamper<br />
in 2006/07 and the equivalent model in<br />
2002 was the oxford hamper<br />
Two day shooting package with one<br />
night accommodation for 6 people. Note:<br />
provider Dalhousie.<br />
3,821.00 4,098.00 4,366.00 2<br />
2,820.00 3,384.00 3,666.00 1<br />
125.00 150.00 150.00 1<br />
27,612.50 30,550.00 32,900.00 1<br />
17
APPENDIX 1 (CONTINUED)<br />
COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />
Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />
Chauffeur First Class,<br />
Brunel (S Class<br />
Mercedes)<br />
Maintenance of 4 Polo<br />
Ponies<br />
1 kg Beluga Caviar<br />
Housekeeper,<br />
Beauchamp<br />
2 weeks at Hotel Villa<br />
del Sol, Mexico<br />
Half an hour Dental<br />
checkup, Harley Street<br />
1 hour GP’s<br />
consultation, Dr.<br />
Daniel’s Medical Centre,<br />
Harley Street<br />
Assumes individual requires a chauffeur<br />
3 hours a day, 5 days per week and 9<br />
months of the year<br />
Maintenance includes Polo club<br />
membership, Polo professional and<br />
tournament entry, stable rental, winter<br />
field livery, shavings, livery, teeth, biting,<br />
vaccinations and shoeing<br />
Kings Fine Food, prices for 2002 not<br />
RRP since firm was not set up in 2002 -<br />
approx from supplier<br />
Assumes that a housekeeper is required<br />
7 hours a day, 5 days a week and 12<br />
months of the year<br />
From Conde Nast Johansson; price reflect<br />
the highest tariff for a suite in each year<br />
(high season). Converted using exchange<br />
rate at the time<br />
Mr Phil Davies, 112 Harley Street -<br />
frequency is based on a family of 4, with<br />
each family member going to the dentist<br />
every 6 months<br />
Extended 1 hour consultation - frequency<br />
is based on a family of 4, with each<br />
family member going to the GP an<br />
average of 1.5 times every year<br />
18 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />
Frequency<br />
(purchased<br />
per year)<br />
40.00 55.00 55.00 540<br />
34,970.00 48,844.00 51,582.00 1<br />
900.00 1,800.00 2,300.00 1<br />
9.00 10.00 10.00 1820<br />
10,854.87 10,560.34 10,579.35 1<br />
35.00 45.00 50.00 8<br />
145.00 165.00 170.00 6
APPENDIX II<br />
AbOUT STONEHAGE<br />
Overview<br />
The Stonehage Group provides international families with<br />
wealth management and fiduciary services. The group has<br />
over $24bn of assets under administration and has offices<br />
in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Jersey, Israel and South<br />
Africa. Stonehage is owned by management and staff, is<br />
independent and intensely relationship driven. Client<br />
objectives are likely to focus on developing, maintaining<br />
and effectively controlling family wealth across generations.<br />
The Stonehage Group ensures that such governance and<br />
legal structures exist as to best meet investment, tax and<br />
wealth transfer objectives. The Group also advises families<br />
on philanthropic arrangements.<br />
Private Client and Trust Division: The core of the Stonehage<br />
business, providing ultra high net worth individuals and<br />
families with value added advice; including succession<br />
planning, governance, trust legal and structuring advice and<br />
administration services.<br />
Advisory Division: Providing independent advice to ultra<br />
high net worth individuals on investment/asset allocation<br />
(Stonehage Investment Partners) and advising on property<br />
investment (Stonehage Property Partners).<br />
TriAlpha: Asset management division, offering range of<br />
multi-manager funds and boutique funds. Assets under<br />
management are currently in the region of $2bn.<br />
Company History<br />
Stonehage was established in 1976 in London to provide<br />
wealthy clients with the means of ensuring security to<br />
their capital. In 1997 Stonehage sold a majority stake in<br />
the business to ABSA Bank. In 2005, the Group returned<br />
to being management controlled. The group now employs<br />
over 275 staff and manages the affairs of over 1,000 client<br />
families.<br />
SALLI Project - Key Executives<br />
Giuseppe Ciucci, CEO<br />
Giuseppe has been Chief Executive Officer of the Stonehage<br />
Group since 1998. He joined Stonehage in 1991, having<br />
previously worked at Deloitte & Touche. He is a qualified lawyer<br />
and Chartered Accountant, holding a Bachelor of Commerce<br />
and LLB degree from the University of Stellenbosch.<br />
Robby Hilkowitz, Head of Group Marketing & Business<br />
Development<br />
Robby is an Executive Director of the Stonehage Group, where<br />
he is Head of Group Marketing & Business Development.<br />
Robby joined Stonehage in 1997 after gaining extensive<br />
experience in world markets at a private forex and derivatives<br />
trading house in Tel Aviv. Robby holds a degree in Finance<br />
and Mathematics from the University of New South Wales in<br />
Sydney, Australia.<br />
David Sable, CEO, TriAlpha<br />
David is the CEO of the TriAlpha Group. He is the portfolio<br />
manager of the Anquiro Fund Limited, a hedge fund he<br />
established in partnership with TriAlpha prior to joining<br />
the group and is a member of the Advisory Committee of<br />
the Stonehage Westcity Property Fund. David obtained an<br />
MBA from Boston University, Massachusetts, a Bachelor of<br />
Commerce (Honours) in Economics from the University of<br />
Cape Town and a Bachelor of Commerce from the University<br />
of the Witwatersrand.<br />
Ronnie Armist, Executive Director<br />
Ronnie is an Executive Director of the Stonehage Group where he<br />
is the Head of the Advisory Unit which incorporates Stonehage<br />
Investment Partners and Stonehage Property Partners. Ronnie<br />
joined the Stonehage Group in 2006 after working at Lombard<br />
Odier for nearly 20 years where he was Chief Executive of the<br />
London office and co-head of the Group’s Institutional Client<br />
Unit. More recently, Ronnie worked as a Director of IPGL Limited<br />
controlled by Michael Spencer, CEO of the ICAP Group. Ronnie<br />
studied Bachelor of Business Science (Hons) at the University<br />
of Cape Town and also completed a BCom (Hons) degree. He<br />
qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1980. Ronnie is based<br />
in our London Office.<br />
Andrew Rodger, Director<br />
Andrew is a Director in the Private Client Division. Andrew<br />
joined the Stonehage Group in 2006 after working for<br />
thirteen years as a practising Barrister in London. Andrew<br />
qualified as a Barrister in 1993 after graduating with honours<br />
from the School of Law, King’s College University of London.<br />
Andrew was admitted to the New York Bar in 2003 and<br />
accredited as a CEDR mediator in 2004. Andrew is based in<br />
our London office.<br />
19
OFFICES<br />
London Zürich Neuchâtel<br />
56 Conduit Street<br />
London<br />
W1S 2YZ<br />
United Kingdom<br />
T +44 20 7087 0000<br />
Usteristrasse 15<br />
Löwenplatz<br />
8001 Zürich<br />
Switzerland<br />
T +41 44 217 9600<br />
Rue du Puits-Godet 12<br />
PO Box 763<br />
2002 Neuchâtel<br />
Switzerland<br />
T +41 32 723 1000<br />
Jersey Israel South Africa<br />
Sir Walter Raleigh House<br />
48/50 Esplanade<br />
St Helier<br />
Jersey JE1 4HH<br />
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T +1534 823 000<br />
Suite 205<br />
Giron Centre<br />
5 Jabotinsky Street<br />
Ra’anana 43363<br />
Israel<br />
T +972 9 771 3335<br />
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