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SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

ALWAYS THERE


CONTENTS<br />

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3<br />

2. INTRODUCING SALLI 4<br />

3. METHODOLOGY 4<br />

4. INDEX RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 6<br />

5. CONCLUSION 14<br />

APPENDICES: INDEX COMPONENTS 15<br />

ABOUT STONEHAGE 19<br />

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS<br />

We would like to thank Pirathaapan Suntharalingam from Cambridge University and Desiree Maghoo<br />

from <strong>Cubitt</strong> <strong>Consulting</strong>. We would also like to thank Professor Geoffrey Wood, Professor of Economics<br />

at CASS Business School for reviewing and verifying SALLI and the <strong>index</strong>’s underlying methodology.<br />

2 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX


1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />

SALLI, The Stonehage Affluent London Living Index measures<br />

the inflation experienced by High Net Worth (HNW) and Ultra<br />

High Net Worth (UHNW) individuals and families <strong>living</strong> in<br />

London. Wealth managers have traditionally used CPI (the<br />

Consumer Price Index) as a measure of inflation when wealth<br />

planning for their clients. At 6%, SALLI is nearly three times<br />

higher than the CPI and the gap between SALLI and the CPI<br />

is widening. Using CPI when wealth planning could therefore<br />

lead to an erosion of wealth as CPI does not account for<br />

luxury goods and services and the real inflation experienced<br />

by HNWs and UHNWs. Using a combination of SALLI and<br />

CPI, wealth managers can arrive at a more realistic inflation<br />

number experienced by their clients.<br />

An analysis of SALLI vs. CPI confirmed the following:<br />

• CPI, the inflation measure currently used by<br />

wealth managers in wealth planning is too low and<br />

needs to be adjusted upwards to mitigate against<br />

the erosion of wealth from under-estimating<br />

rising costs of <strong>living</strong> in London.<br />

• In the last twelve months, SALLI climbed 6.0%<br />

compared to CPI which rose by just 2.3%. Since<br />

2002, SALLI has climbed 13.7%, compared to<br />

CPI which has risen by 7.2%.<br />

• There is an increasing gap between the inflation<br />

of luxury goods and services as illustrated by<br />

SALLI compared to the inflation of general consumer<br />

goods and services as measured by the CPI.<br />

• The cost of renting a prime property in Central London<br />

rose by 25.0% from 2002 to 2007, whereas the purchase<br />

price of a similar property rose by 150% during the same<br />

period 1 . This highlights the extraordinary cost of<br />

purchasing property in Central London, as well as its<br />

outstanding performance as an investment asset class.<br />

During the same period, the cost of renting a similar<br />

property in Manhattan rose by 49.7%, whereas the<br />

purchase price rose by 74.0% 2 .<br />

1<br />

The SALLI <strong>index</strong> includes rental cost rather than the purchase price of property<br />

2<br />

Source: Prudential Douglas Elliman; Savills<br />

The study confirms that CPI is too conservative a measure of<br />

inflation to use when advising High and Ultra High Net Worth<br />

families on wealth management, their investments and longterm<br />

wealth planning. Using a combination of SALLI and<br />

other indices including CPI, wealth advisors should increase<br />

the inflation number used in forecasts to reflect a more<br />

realistic rate of inflation experienced by UHNW clients in<br />

order to safeguard clients’ wealth goals.<br />

SALLI is an <strong>index</strong> comprising a basket of luxury goods and<br />

services determined by the Stonehage Group, based on the<br />

firm’s knowledge and experience of the spending patterns<br />

of London-based UHNW families. Prices in the <strong>index</strong> are the<br />

recommended retail prices (inc. VAT) and SALLI accounts for<br />

the frequency of purchase of each item over one year. Prices<br />

were compared between 2002, 2006 and 2007, keeping<br />

the frequency of purchases of each item consistent for<br />

each year.<br />

Prices for SALLI were collected at the end of July 2007. The<br />

study compares SALLI to the CPI at the end of July 2007.<br />

The Stonehage Group provides specialist private client<br />

advisory and fiduciary services to HNW individuals and<br />

families around the world, with assets under administration<br />

of $24 billion.<br />

3


2. INTRODUCING SALLI<br />

The Stonehage Affluent London Lifestyle Index (SALLI)<br />

intends to provide an indication of the trends in the cost<br />

of <strong>living</strong> for HNW and UHNWs. This is important because<br />

financial objectives of HNWs are likely to be based on<br />

real returns on capital, in which inflation is a fundamental<br />

input. For example, a family’s wealth objective might be<br />

to double real wealth (after inflation and <strong>living</strong> costs) over<br />

a 25 year period. Therefore, monitoring actual inflation<br />

experienced by HNWs is essential in wealth planning, to<br />

ensure that financial objectives are met.<br />

SALLI tracks the prices of luxury items from 2002 to 2007,<br />

enabling the calculation of luxury inflation. SALLI will<br />

therefore allow Stonehage to more accurately assess the<br />

costs that HNWs face and arrive at a more appropriate<br />

inflation figure, so that recommended investment<br />

strategies are based on more realistic spending patterns.<br />

SALLI is the first Sterling based luxury <strong>index</strong> of this type<br />

and it consists of luxury goods and services purchased by<br />

London-based UHNW families of four including two children,<br />

over the period of a year.<br />

The paper also compares SALLI to the CPI, UK’s current<br />

headline measure of inflation and also with the RPI and<br />

RPIX (the previous target inflation measure) to establish<br />

whether luxury inflation, as expressed by SALLI, is<br />

substantially higher than inflation experienced by the<br />

average consumer, as measured by CPI, RPI, RPIX 3 .<br />

Stonehage was established in 1976 and is a leading private<br />

client wealth management and fiduciary services group.<br />

Stonehage is headquartered in Jersey and has offices in<br />

the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Israel and South Africa.<br />

The group provides specialist private client advisory and<br />

fiduciary services to HNW individuals and families around<br />

the world. Stonehage is also active in global private<br />

client and institutional asset management via its wholly<br />

owned subsidiary, TriAlpha, which has offices in Jersey,<br />

London and South Africa.<br />

3. METHODOLOGY<br />

4 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

A basket of luxury goods and services was determined<br />

by Stonehage, based on their knowledge and experience<br />

of the spending patterns of London based UHNWs. In<br />

order to compare how prices of these goods and services<br />

have changed, a Laspeyres <strong>index</strong> was constructed. This<br />

weights every item in the luxury basket by the frequency<br />

of purchase in a year. The frequency of purchase in each<br />

year was then kept constant so that any change in the<br />

<strong>index</strong> was due to changes in the price not quantites of<br />

the item or service purchased. A Laspeyres <strong>index</strong> was<br />

used as opposed to a Paasche <strong>index</strong> because the former<br />

assumes that the frequency of purchase per year remains<br />

constant between the years of comparison, whilst the<br />

latter does not. Changing the frequency of purchases<br />

between the years would measure changes in price and<br />

quantity, as opposed to just prices. In essence, the sole<br />

aim is to monitor price variations, which requires us to<br />

keep the frequency of purchase constant and hence the<br />

adoption of a Laspeyres <strong>index</strong>.<br />

In order to calculate a value for the percentage rise in<br />

the cost of <strong>living</strong> for HNW individuals over the past 5<br />

years, the formula below was applied to the prices and<br />

frequency of purchased items.<br />

Laspeyres Index<br />

P L = (P i,2007.Qi)<br />

(P i,2002.Qi)<br />

3<br />

A detailed outline and comparison of the CPI, RPI and RPIX can be found in section 4.1<br />

Pi,2007 / Pi,2002 = Price of item ‘i’ in 2007/2002<br />

Qi = yearly purchase frequency


A Laspeyres <strong>index</strong> of this type can overstate HNW inflation<br />

since most consumers typically respond to price changes by<br />

altering the quantities that they purchase. More specifically, an<br />

increase in the price of an item might encourage consumers<br />

to purchase less of the item in question, substituting other<br />

items in its place. Hence, since the assumed frequency of<br />

purchase remains unchanged in SALLI, these items receive a<br />

greater weighting than is appropriate, overstating the value<br />

of inflation. Nevertheless, since HNW individuals may be less<br />

price sensitive than the average consumer, any exaggeration<br />

is likely to be small. Whilst individuals might pay more<br />

for a small improvement to an item, it does not mean<br />

that they will be insensitive to a change in the price of an<br />

unchanged item, since this will be affected by the availability<br />

of substitutes. However, with luxury goods and services,<br />

one is often buying the brand which makes substituting<br />

goods more difficult than with less heavily branded goods<br />

and services.<br />

In addition to looking at how prices have changed in the<br />

last year (2006-2007), prices of luxury goods and services<br />

were also collected for 2002, to determine how prices have<br />

changed in the last five years.<br />

SALLI (2006-2007) will serve as a proxy for luxury inflation<br />

for next year (2006-2007) and will allow Stonehage to tailor<br />

more appropriate investment recommendations based on<br />

more realistic increases in the cost of <strong>living</strong> experienced by<br />

HNW individuals.<br />

P L = (P i,2007.Qi)<br />

(P i,2006.Qi)<br />

Unlike the CPI which represents inflation of goods and<br />

services purchased by the average consumer, SALLI does<br />

not include every single item that a typical HNW individual<br />

would purchase. An arithmetic mean of the inflation for<br />

each item was also calculated to provide an overview of the<br />

price trends that luxury goods and services experience on<br />

a single item basis. In effect, this uses the notion of single<br />

purchase, where the frequency of purchase per year of each<br />

item is one.<br />

Prices were mostly obtained from the respective marketing<br />

or PR departments of the goods and services that comprise<br />

SALLI. These are all recommended retail prices including VAT,<br />

except in cases where company advisors have provided an<br />

average of the tariffs charged for each year. The latter was<br />

more appropriate in cases where consumers would regularly<br />

face different rates (i.e. the Royal Opera House where the<br />

tariff would depend on the opera).<br />

Furthermore, a number of the goods and services in the<br />

luxury basket were upgraded or possibly discontinued over<br />

the years. In these cases we have used an equivalent item<br />

for each year as advised by the respective retail or marketing<br />

team for each item. Since the <strong>index</strong> seeks to provide an<br />

overview of the trends in the cost of <strong>living</strong> for HNW<br />

individuals, changes have been allowed in the quality and<br />

specifications of the item in some cases. For example, we<br />

compared the price of a highest specification Range Rover<br />

for 2002, 2006 and 2007; our assumption being that a<br />

HNW individuals would not want to purchase a Range Rover<br />

similar to the highest end model in 2002 in the year 2007.<br />

We have not made any adjustment for quality change. A<br />

higher price for an improved product does not necessarily<br />

mean that the “true” price has increased. However, this<br />

will only cause a small upward bias to SALLI, since the<br />

vast majority of goods in this <strong>index</strong> do not display regular<br />

improvement through time – e.g. opera performances, which<br />

of course fluctuate in quality! In addition, luxury goods and<br />

services which are the most costly can also have the effect<br />

of increasing demand.<br />

A few of the goods and services in the luxury basket were<br />

priced in either Dollars or Euros. These prices were converted<br />

to their Sterling equivalents using an average exchange rate<br />

for the year in question, as opposed to today’s exchange<br />

rate, in order to reflect more accurately the cost at the time<br />

of purchase.<br />

5


4. INDEX RESULTS AND ANALYSIS<br />

4.1 SALLI VS. CPI/RPIX/RPI<br />

To monitor SALLI against inflation for the average consumer<br />

we have compared SALLI to the Consumer Price Index (CPI),<br />

the Retail Price Index (RPI) and the Retail Price Index minus<br />

mortgage interest repayments (RPIX). The most appropriate<br />

measure of inflation is very much dependent on the nature<br />

of the analysis at hand.<br />

CPI is the official UK price <strong>index</strong> used by the Bank of<br />

England to measure inflation. The CPI consists of a basket<br />

of goods, weighted by frequency of purchase over one year,<br />

using Laspeyres. Every few years, the frequency of purchase<br />

and items are updated. Its use of the Laspeyres method<br />

makes this <strong>index</strong> particularly appropriate for comparison<br />

with SALLI.<br />

How the baskets compare<br />

4<br />

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the European equivalent of the CPI<br />

6 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

There are numerous differences between the CPI, the RPI and<br />

the RPIX. The CPI is the UK equivalent of the HICP 4 , which<br />

is the European Union’s official price <strong>index</strong>. CPI excludes<br />

a number of elements mainly related to housing that are<br />

present in both the RPI and the RPIX. These elements include<br />

council tax and various owner-occupier housing costs such<br />

as estate agents’ conveyancing fees and buildings insurance.<br />

In addition, the CPI also excludes trade union subscriptions<br />

and vehicle excise duty.


The CPI includes a number of items that are overlooked<br />

by both the RPI and RPIX. These include unit trust and<br />

stockbroker fees, university accommodation fees, foreign<br />

students’ university tuition fees and foreign exchange<br />

commission for purchases of Sterling by overseas<br />

visitors. The RPIX is simply the RPI with mortgage interest<br />

repayments excluded.<br />

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) emphasises that the<br />

CPI is not designed as a cost of <strong>living</strong> indicator but is a<br />

“macroeconomic” measure since certain areas that contribute<br />

significantly to <strong>living</strong> costs, such as housing, are overlooked<br />

by the <strong>index</strong>. The RPI and RPIX are more comprehensive,<br />

although they exclude expenditure by the highest 4.0% of<br />

Table 1: Changes in the indices from 2002-2007<br />

Year<br />

5 ONS RPI department<br />

earners, which further advances the claim for the need of a<br />

specific price <strong>index</strong> tailored to HNW individuals. Furthermore,<br />

the RPI is a more appropriate measure of the costs of<br />

<strong>living</strong> than the RPIX, since the latter excludes mortgage<br />

interest payments, which account for approximately 5.5%<br />

of <strong>living</strong> costs 5 .<br />

It is interesting to note that from 2002-07, whilst the CPI<br />

increased by 7.2%, the RPI by 12.4% and the RPIX by 10.6%,<br />

SALLI rose by 13.7%. This highlights how the significant<br />

differences between changes in lifestyle costs of HNW<br />

individuals compare to the average consumer and confirms<br />

that CPI vastly underestimates inflation experienced by<br />

HNW individuals.<br />

Percentage Increase In<br />

CPI RPI RPIX SALLI<br />

2002-06 4.82 8.97 7.48 7.31<br />

2002-07 7.23 12.40 10.62 13.79<br />

2006-07 2.30 3.18 2.92 6.04<br />

7


Table 2: Changes in the ratio of SALLI to the other indices<br />

Year<br />

Percentage Increase In Ratios<br />

CPI RPI RPIX SALLI SALLI/CPI SALLI/RPI SALLI/RPIX<br />

2002-06 4.82 8.97 7.48 7.31 1.52 0.81 0.98<br />

2006-07 2.30 3.20 2.90 6.04 2.63 1.89 2.08<br />

Table 2 shows the changes occurring to the ratio of SALLI to<br />

the rate of inflation for the average consumer from 2002-06<br />

and from 2006-07 using the CPI, RPI and RPIX.<br />

The ratio of SALLI to the CPI has risen from 1.5 (2002-06) to<br />

2.6 (2006-07). Similarly, the ratios of SALLI to the RPI and<br />

RPIX have risen from 0.8 (2002-06) to 1.9 (2006-07) and<br />

0.9 (2002-06) to 2.0 (2006-07) respectively, implying that<br />

the difference of price inflation for luxury versus non luxury<br />

goods is widening i.e. prices for luxury items are increasing<br />

faster than prices for normal consumer goods and services.<br />

4.2 SALLI VERSUS CHANGE IN THE<br />

ARITHMETIC MEAN OF PRICES OF<br />

SINGLE PURCHASE GOODS AND<br />

SERVICES<br />

SALLI, which measures how the cost of “a basket” of<br />

luxury goods and services changes over time, showed an<br />

increase of 13.7% from 2002-2007. Because the basket<br />

does not represent every luxury item purchased by HNWs,<br />

we calculated the arithmetic mean of single unit prices in<br />

2002, 2006 and 2007 to consider by how much the average<br />

product and service has risen. The average increase of the<br />

8 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

basket was 38.4%, this finding confirms that luxury goods<br />

and services are subject to high inflation as SALLI suggests.<br />

In addition, SALLI showed a lower price increase than the<br />

arithmetic mean of unit prices, which suggests that SALLI<br />

is weighted in favour of goods and services that have<br />

generated less price inflation per unit. We can therefore infer<br />

that those items which experienced relatively smaller price<br />

increases were more heavily purchased by HNW individuals.<br />

In addition, taking the arithmetic average of the price rises<br />

experienced for each item would be inaccurate and would<br />

vastly overstate high net worth inflation.<br />

The average price rose 23.5% over four years from 2002-06<br />

and 10.0% from 2006-07. As with SALLI, demand and supply<br />

side pressures have intensified in the last year, causing price<br />

inflation to accelerate for luxury goods and services.<br />

4.2.1 HOW PRICES HAVE CHANGED IN<br />

EACH SPENDING CATEGORY<br />

Segmentation of SALLI provides greater insight into the<br />

categories of items that are exerting upward and downward<br />

pressure on SALLI. Table 3 and 4 consider the average price<br />

of the items in each category.


Table 3: Price level increases per category<br />

Category Price level increase 2002-07 (%) Price level increase 2006-07 (%)<br />

Home 18.84 4.97<br />

Transport 13.03 2.32<br />

Food and Drink 78.57 19.30<br />

Children 34.66 13.80<br />

Investments of Passion 52.19 12.43<br />

Leisure (Travel, Hobbies,<br />

Entertainment)<br />

37.15 11.59<br />

Luxury Goods and Services 21.34 3.11<br />

All Items 38.46 10.04<br />

This segmentation suggests that Food and Drink and Investments of Passion are the categories that have experienced the largest<br />

increase in price from 2002-07. However, this is based on arithmetic mean prices and does not account for quantities of goods/<br />

services purchased.<br />

Table 4: Change in expenditure by category from 2002 to 2007 (using frequency to weight expenditure)<br />

Category % Expenditure 2002 % Expenditure 2006 % Expenditure 2007<br />

Home 21.07 22.43 23.21<br />

Transport 49.57 43.53 39.68<br />

Food and Drink 1.45 2.23 3.53<br />

Children 3.60 4.33 4.36<br />

Investments of Passion 0.57 0.65 0.67<br />

Leisure (Travel, Hobbies,<br />

Entertainment)<br />

17.76 20.57 22.15<br />

Luxury Goods and Services 5.97 6.26 6.41<br />

Further analysis (Table 4) of the share of total expenditure accounted for by each category of spending reflects the trend that the<br />

share of spending on all of the categories has been increasing slightly, at the expense of transport, which experienced a dramatic fall<br />

in the share of expenditure from 49.5% (2002) to 39.6%(2007). This is likely to be due to increased competition within the sector<br />

and increasing supply as opposed to diminishing demand.<br />

9


4.2.2 NOTAbLE PRICE TRENDS<br />

Price trends vary across the different items in SALLI, for<br />

example, the price of a case of Lafite Rothschild 2000 has<br />

risen by more than a factor of three from 2002-2007, now<br />

standing at £9,250. Supply is constrained given that only an<br />

estimated 15,000-20,000 cases were produced.<br />

The main factor contributing to the remarkable increase<br />

in price has been surging demand, due to increases in<br />

wealth creation around the world. This is highlighted by the<br />

substantial increase in the number of HNW individuals rising<br />

from 7.3 million at the end of 2002 to 9.5 million by 2007 6 .<br />

Other factors might include the growth of interest in wine<br />

as an investment class. A number of indices have recently<br />

launched such as the Liv-ex <strong>index</strong> 7 , which tracks the prices<br />

of a large number of expensive wines and highlights wine<br />

as an investment opportunity as well as investment funds<br />

specialising in wine (Fine Wine Fund, Wine Investment Fund).<br />

In addition, Lafite 2000 is in limited supply.<br />

Table 5: Goods and services that have come down in price<br />

Item<br />

NetJets entry<br />

level aircraft<br />

Virginian Yacht<br />

Charter<br />

(1 week)<br />

Hotel Villa del<br />

Sol, Mexico<br />

(2 weeks)<br />

Price ($)<br />

2002<br />

Price ($)<br />

2006<br />

Price ($)<br />

2007<br />

10 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

Although, one could argue that most of the Lafite 2000 is<br />

yet to be consumed, the ‘effective supply’ is likely to be low<br />

since many individuals who have bought cases are storing<br />

their supply to either sell or drink at some point in the<br />

future. Another possibility is that some wine may be tied up<br />

in the form of investment funds. In this case both increased<br />

demand and restricted supply have put upward pressure<br />

on its price.<br />

Similarly, booming demand and restricted supply has driven<br />

the enormous increase in price for Dom Perignon 1990. For<br />

the purposes of the <strong>index</strong>, we chose to use the same wine<br />

and champagne for 2002, 2006 and 2007, since substituting<br />

wines would introduce further subjectivity.<br />

The only three items to experience a price fall from 2002-<br />

2007 were the NetJets entry level aircraft, Edmiston’s Virginian<br />

yacht charter for one week and two weeks at Hotel Villa del<br />

Sol, Mexico.<br />

Price (£) 2002 Price (£) 2006 Price (£) 2007<br />

375,000 400,000 400,000 248,508.95 215,517.24 201,511.34<br />

262,500 290,000 294,000 173,956.26 156,250.00 148,110.83<br />

16,380 19,600 21,000 10,854.87 10,560.34 10,579.35<br />

6 Data obtained from Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Reports<br />

7 The Liv-ex 100 Index is the fine wine benchmark <strong>index</strong>. It is priced off the mid-price as quoted on the Liv-ex platform and supply and scarcity<br />

weighted. The Liv-ex 100 – Fine Wine Index “the wine world’s version of the S&P 500.” (Financial Times, Jun 07).The Liv-ex 100 <strong>index</strong> has gone up<br />

from 94.96 in Jan 02 to 174.69 in Jan 07, representing an 84.0% (2sf) increase in five years.


However, in terms of the American Dollar, the price of each<br />

rose by $25,000, $31,500 and $4,620 respectively. Thus,<br />

the main reason for the fall in the price of each of these<br />

items was the substantial appreciation of the Pound Sterling<br />

against the American Dollar, which completely offset the<br />

increase in price in Dollar terms.<br />

Table 6: Items which experienced the smallest increase in price 2002 to 2006<br />

Rank Item<br />

Percentage change<br />

in price (2002-06)<br />

Average yearly<br />

percentage change<br />

in price<br />

48 A box of Cohiba Siglo V’s 7.92 1.92<br />

49 Virgin Upper Class flight to New York 7.25 1.77<br />

50 Partners Desk, Dutch Connection 1.76 0.44<br />

51 Child Rush Seat Chair from Dragons 0.00 0.00<br />

51 Purdey Shotgun 0.00 0.00<br />

51 Burberry Women’s Trench Coat 0.00 0.00<br />

51 Annual membership of the Walbrook Club 0.00 0.00<br />

55 2 weeks at Hotel Villa del Sol, Mexico -2.71 -0.67<br />

56 Virginian Yacht Charter for one week -10.18 -2.45<br />

57 NetJets entry level aircraft -13.28 -3.17<br />

8 These exchange rates are an average for each year, with data from www.statistics.gov.uk<br />

The exchange rate stood at $1.51 = £1 in 2002, rising to<br />

$1.87 = £1 in 2006, reaching $1.99 = £1 in 2007 8 .<br />

Increased competition may also have impacted the Dollar<br />

price of these three items. For example, improvements in<br />

the first class service of commercial airlines may have put<br />

pressure on private jet companies to lower prices.<br />

11


Table 7: Items which experienced the smallest increase in price 2006 to 2007<br />

Rank Item<br />

12 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

Percentage change<br />

in price (2006-07)<br />

42 Hamley’s 1920’s Classic Steiff Bear 0.00<br />

42 The Ivy 0.00<br />

42 Zafferano 0.00<br />

42 Partners Desk, Dutch Connection 0.00<br />

42 2 Business Premier Eurostar return tickets to Paris 0.00<br />

42 Housekeeper, Beauchamp 0.00<br />

42 Woman’s haircut, Senior Stylist at Michael John, 25 Albemarle Street 0.00<br />

42 Burberry Women’s Trench Coat 0.00<br />

42 Annual Quintessentially Membership 0.00<br />

42 Clive Christian ‘X’ Perfume 0.00<br />

42 Annual membership of the Walbrook Club 0.00<br />

42 Fortnum and Mason Christmas Hamper 0.00<br />

42 Chauffeur First Class, Brunel (S Class Mercedes) 0.00<br />

55 Virginian Yacht Charter for one week -5.21<br />

56 NetJets entry level aircraft -6.50<br />

57 Breast Enhancement Surgery, 111 Harley Street -10.00<br />

Tables 6 and 7 list items that experienced the smallest price increases. These goods and services tend to be those where supply is<br />

plentiful and competition is more intense.


On the other hand, the two tables below indicate that those<br />

items that experienced the largest price increases tend to<br />

be those where restricted supply creates exclusivity, such<br />

as caviar, luxury housing and fine wines/champagnes. This<br />

is in contrast to items in tables 6 and 7 where the good or<br />

Table 8: Goods and services demonstrating the highest price increase 2002 to 2006<br />

Rank Item<br />

Table 9: Goods and services demonstrating the highest price increase 2002 to 2007<br />

Rank Item<br />

service in question is more easily reproduced. This confirms<br />

a close correlation i.e. goods that experienced high inflation<br />

over the last year are likely to experience high inflation next<br />

year - with the exception of the same – housing if there is a<br />

surge in interest rates for example.<br />

Percentage change in price<br />

(2002-06)<br />

Average yearly percentage<br />

change in price<br />

1 Case of Lafite Rothschild 2000 103 19.36<br />

2 1 kg Beluga Caviar 100 18.92<br />

3 Case of Dom Perignon 1990 72.93 14.67<br />

4 Art Index 52.84 11.19<br />

5 Annual Quintessentially Membership 50 10.67<br />

6 Annual Membership of Soho House 50 10.67<br />

7 Gordon Ramsay, 68 Hospital Road 43.94 9.53<br />

8 Hakkasan 41.67 9.10<br />

9 Maintenance of 4 Polo Ponies 39.67 8.71<br />

10<br />

Chauffeur First Class, Brunel<br />

(S Class Mercedes)<br />

37.50 8.29<br />

Percentage change in price<br />

(2006-07)<br />

1 Case of Lafite Rothschild 2000 116.98<br />

2 Annual Membership of Soho House 50.00<br />

3 Child Rush Seat Chair from Dragons 41.17<br />

4 Case of Dom Perignon 1990 39.13<br />

5 1 kg Beluga Caviar 27.78<br />

6 Limited Edition Patek Phillippe Calatrava 26.67<br />

7 Season Executive Box hire at Chelsea Football Club 25.00<br />

8 3500 sq ft house in Belgravia 21.50<br />

9 Annual Membership of Dorchester Gym and Spa 20.00<br />

13


5. CONCLUSION<br />

The study confirms that CPI is too conservative a measure of<br />

inflation to use when advising High and Ultra High Net Worth<br />

families on wealth management, their investments and longterm<br />

wealth planning.<br />

Using SALLI, Stonehage will increase the inflation number used<br />

in forecasts to reflect a more realistic rate of inflation experienced<br />

by UHNW clients, thereby safeguarding clients’ wealth goals.<br />

A CASE STUDY 9<br />

A typical investment objective for a wealthy family may be to<br />

double their real (i.e. after expenditure and inflation) capital<br />

base every 25 years.<br />

Using CPI at an annual average rate of 1.4% over the last<br />

five years and assuming an annual spending rate of 4%, the<br />

required investment growth rate to meet this wealth objective<br />

is 8.4% per annum.<br />

Using SALLI at 2.6% annualised over the last five years, the required<br />

investment growth rate required to meet the families’ wealth<br />

objective is 9.6% per annum to prevent wealth erosion.<br />

Pounds Sterling (millions)<br />

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14 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

The margin of error, i.e. the potential shortfall if the CPI is used<br />

rather than SALLI by the end of year 25 is high. For a family<br />

with £50 million of initial capital, the potential shortfall is £46<br />

million. Similarly, for a family with £10 million of initial capital,<br />

the potential shortfall is £9 million.<br />

Because of the nature of compounding, small changes in<br />

inflation rates can lead to large changes in spending power over<br />

time. Since inflation experienced by HNWs is higher than CPI,<br />

both families will experience a large and unexpected erosion of<br />

buying power unless they base their targeted annual returns on<br />

a higher, more appropriate level of inflation.<br />

Luxury inflation as measured by SALLI has increased over<br />

the last year to 6%. Using this inflation figure, the required<br />

investment growth rate for next year is 13.2% to achieve these<br />

wealth goals.<br />

In conclusion, since HNWs also purchase goods and services<br />

tracked by CPI, wealth managers should use a combination of<br />

SALLI and CPI to reflect the real inflation experienced by HNWs.<br />

In general, the higher the level of investable wealth, the higher<br />

the SALLI component should be of the inflation number used.<br />

CAPITAL VALUE AFTER EXPENDITURE AND INVESTMENT GROWTH<br />

9 All numbers in the case study are to 1 decimal place<br />

End of Year<br />

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SALLI Target<br />

(based on 6%)<br />

SALLI Target<br />

(based on 2.6%)<br />

CPI Target<br />

Rate of Return<br />

13.2%<br />

9.6%<br />

8.4%


APPENDIX 1<br />

COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />

Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />

Flowers, Orlando<br />

Hamilton<br />

12 Turnbull and Asser<br />

two-fold 200 shirt<br />

Season Executive Box<br />

hire at Chelsea Football<br />

Club<br />

Annual Membership of<br />

Soho House<br />

Aston Martin Vanquish<br />

S V12<br />

For a 5 bedroom house (average<br />

estimate)<br />

Prices per season are inclusive of VAT<br />

and prices start at each of those shown<br />

Annual price of membership for access to<br />

all houses - number of houses has risen<br />

from 2002 to 2007<br />

The Vanquish S V12 was only released in<br />

2004 - the price for 2002 is for a Vanquish<br />

V12 in September 2002. Prices for all three<br />

years are for a brand new car<br />

Frequency<br />

(purchased<br />

per year)<br />

200.00 250.00 275.00 52<br />

2,340.00 3,000.00 3,120.00 1<br />

70,500.00 94,000.00 117,500.00 1<br />

400.00 600.00 900.00 1<br />

159,995.00 185,000.00 188,000.00 1/3<br />

Purdey shotgun 12-bore side by side gun 54,640.00 54,640.00 57,340.00 1/3<br />

A box of Cohiba<br />

Siglo V’s<br />

From Hunters and Frankou; a box of 25 467.00 504.00 521.00 6<br />

Panerai Luminor<br />

Submersible<br />

Limited Edition Patek<br />

Phillippe Calatrava<br />

Case of Lafite<br />

Rothschild 2000<br />

Case of Dom Perignon<br />

1990<br />

1882 £1 stamp<br />

4 Lion King Musical<br />

Tickets<br />

Hamley’s 1920’s classic<br />

Steiff bear<br />

Annual Wentworth Golf<br />

Club Membership<br />

Automatic mechanical, exclusive Paneri<br />

OPIII Calibre movement<br />

4,300.00 4,900.00 5,400.00 1/3<br />

Stainless Steel Finish 12,000.00 15,000.00 19,000.00 1/3<br />

Case of 12 2,100.00 4,263.00 9,250.00 3<br />

Case of 12 665.00 1,150.00 1,600.00 3<br />

Brown-lilac white paper stamp, near mint<br />

condition and mounted<br />

Price for 2 adults, 2 children in basket<br />

(no concession for children). Price for<br />

Saturday matinee, highest tariff seats<br />

18,000.00 22,000.00 24,000.00 1/3<br />

170.00 220.00 236.00 1<br />

Non-limited edition 1920’s classic 95.00 115.00 115.00 1<br />

For one person; includes access to golf<br />

facilities, clubhouse, bar, restaurant and<br />

spa<br />

3,912.00 5,016.00 5,268.00 1<br />

Nobu London, 19 Old<br />

Park Lane<br />

The Ivy<br />

Prices for an average meal from the<br />

Zagat 2002, 2006 and 2007 surveys,<br />

including one drink and service as a<br />

56.00<br />

44.00<br />

67.00<br />

53.00<br />

71.00<br />

53.00<br />

10<br />

10<br />

Gordon Ramsay, 68<br />

Hospital Road<br />

benchmark. Hakkasan in 2002 was<br />

relatively new so price was said to be<br />

66.00 95.00 98.00 10<br />

Hakkasan over £36 in Zagat survey - taken to be 36.00 51.00 56.00 10<br />

Le Caprice<br />

Zafferano<br />

Tamarind<br />

£36. Frequencies assume that individuals<br />

are present in London for 9 months of<br />

the year and go out to eat twice a week<br />

45.00<br />

47.00<br />

39.00<br />

53.00<br />

56.00<br />

47.00<br />

54.00<br />

56.00<br />

49.00<br />

10<br />

10<br />

10<br />

15


APPENDIX 1 (CONTINUED)<br />

COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />

Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />

Partners Desk, Dutch<br />

Connection<br />

Child Rush Seat Chair<br />

from Dragons<br />

Annual Queen’s Tennis<br />

Club Membership<br />

Gold Sovereign Coin<br />

2 Business Premier<br />

Eurostar return tickets<br />

to Paris<br />

Range Rover, top of the<br />

range<br />

Woman’s haircut<br />

Royal Opera House Box<br />

for a full length opera<br />

Breast Enhancement<br />

Surgery, 111 Harley<br />

Street<br />

Burberry Women’s<br />

Trench Coat<br />

Rental price for a<br />

3500 sq ft house in<br />

Kensington and Chelsea<br />

NetJets entry level<br />

aircraft<br />

Virginian Yacht Charter<br />

for one week<br />

16 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

Frequency<br />

(purchased<br />

per year)<br />

Large desk, polished and leathered 1,135.00 1,155.00 1,155.00 1/5<br />

Child Rush Seat Chair - one of most<br />

popular items from the past few years<br />

Club was purchased by members 22 May<br />

2007 so to join, at least one share must<br />

be bought (approx £11000). Prices are<br />

for full membership<br />

For each year prices are for the<br />

sovereign released that year<br />

Tickets are fully flexible and exclude<br />

cab journeys. The price for 2002 is the<br />

business premier equivalent<br />

Top of the range Vogue SE has changed<br />

from ‘ 02 to’ 07 from a 6 cylinder to an<br />

8 cylinder engine as well as changes to<br />

the interior and features. For each year,<br />

the price is for a brand new car<br />

Senior Stylist at Michael John, 25<br />

Albemarle Street<br />

Prices are an average for each year and<br />

are for a Grand Tier box to seat 4 people<br />

99.88 99.88 141.00 1/3<br />

1,100.00 1,300.00 1,560.00 1<br />

85.00 110.00 120.00 1/5<br />

405.00 450.00 450.00 2<br />

51,810.00 62,510.00 74,900.00 1/3<br />

90.00 110.00 110.00 10<br />

560.00 640.00 660.00 4<br />

4,500.00 5,000.00 4,500.00 1/3<br />

London collection, classic trench coat 695.00 695.00 695.00 1<br />

Data from Knight Frank negotiator -<br />

average price per week<br />

Fractional ownership programme and<br />

price is for 50 hours. Aircraft for 2002<br />

was a Citation Bravo whereas for 2006/7<br />

this was changed to a Hawker 400XP.<br />

Converted using exchange rates at<br />

the time and operational costs were<br />

excluded<br />

Edmiston Yacht Company, prices for high<br />

season. Note that refurbishment work<br />

may have been carried out on yachts<br />

over the years. Currency conversion<br />

using exchange rate at the time -<br />

Sterling has appreciated strongly since<br />

absolute prices in dollars have been<br />

rising<br />

4,000.00 4,550.00 5,000.00 52<br />

248,508.95 215,517.24 201,511.34 1<br />

173,956.26 156,250.00 148,110.83 1


APPENDIX 1 (CONTINUED)<br />

COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />

Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />

A weekend in George<br />

V, Paris<br />

Annual Membership of<br />

Dorchester Gym and<br />

Spa<br />

Art Index<br />

Annual Quintessentially<br />

Membership<br />

One term of fees<br />

for two seniors at<br />

Westminister School<br />

Bespoke Tailored<br />

Tuxedo, Ozwald<br />

Boateng<br />

2 Wimbledon men’s<br />

final debenture tickets<br />

Clive Christian ‘X’<br />

Perfume<br />

Duplex Suite for 2, based on 2 floors<br />

and covers 115 sq m. Prices for the first<br />

week of June. For basket, prices for a<br />

weekend - convert using exchange rate<br />

at the time<br />

Membership includes use of all club<br />

facilities<br />

Artprice Global Index - includes<br />

global paintings, sculpture,<br />

tapestry and drawings.<br />

Values are <strong>index</strong>ed from Jan ‘02. Index<br />

levels for 2006/07 are also for January<br />

Membership has changed over the<br />

past few years with 3 tariffs currently<br />

available. The memberships for 2006/07<br />

are of the variety most similar to the<br />

service offered in 2002 (lowest tariff<br />

offered)<br />

2 children in the basket, boarding and 3<br />

terms per year<br />

Diamond duff 100% wool super 140<br />

material - average estimate<br />

Frequency<br />

(purchased<br />

per year)<br />

943.20 1,261.33 1,282.31 1<br />

1,200.00 1,500.00 1,800.00 1<br />

100.00 152.84 182.06 1<br />

500.00 750.00 750.00 1<br />

12,576.00 16,210.00 17,304.00 3<br />

5,500.00 6,500.00 7,000.00 1<br />

Average trading rates, singles final 6,000.00 7,000.00 7,600.00 1<br />

Women’s perfume 30ml 350.00 460.00 460.00 1<br />

Boodles Ring<br />

Raindance platinum ring with a triple<br />

row of diamonds<br />

5,500.00 6,000.00 6,500.00 1<br />

Boodles Necklace Raindance double collar platinum ring 45,000.00 50,000.00 55,000.00 1<br />

Annual membership of<br />

the Walbrook Club<br />

For one person 750.00 750.00 750.00 1<br />

Virgin Upper Class flight<br />

to New York<br />

2 days’ Grouse Shooting<br />

Fortnum and Mason<br />

Christmas Hamper<br />

Pheasant Shooting<br />

Package<br />

Virgin Atlantic restricted mid july flights<br />

for each year; also mid-week travel.<br />

Jim Gale Country Sports Agency - 12<br />

brace per gun per day<br />

This was the classic christmas hamper<br />

in 2006/07 and the equivalent model in<br />

2002 was the oxford hamper<br />

Two day shooting package with one<br />

night accommodation for 6 people. Note:<br />

provider Dalhousie.<br />

3,821.00 4,098.00 4,366.00 2<br />

2,820.00 3,384.00 3,666.00 1<br />

125.00 150.00 150.00 1<br />

27,612.50 30,550.00 32,900.00 1<br />

17


APPENDIX 1 (CONTINUED)<br />

COMPONENT ITEMS OF SALLI INDEX<br />

Items Notes 2002 (£) 2006 (£) 2007 (£)<br />

Chauffeur First Class,<br />

Brunel (S Class<br />

Mercedes)<br />

Maintenance of 4 Polo<br />

Ponies<br />

1 kg Beluga Caviar<br />

Housekeeper,<br />

Beauchamp<br />

2 weeks at Hotel Villa<br />

del Sol, Mexico<br />

Half an hour Dental<br />

checkup, Harley Street<br />

1 hour GP’s<br />

consultation, Dr.<br />

Daniel’s Medical Centre,<br />

Harley Street<br />

Assumes individual requires a chauffeur<br />

3 hours a day, 5 days per week and 9<br />

months of the year<br />

Maintenance includes Polo club<br />

membership, Polo professional and<br />

tournament entry, stable rental, winter<br />

field livery, shavings, livery, teeth, biting,<br />

vaccinations and shoeing<br />

Kings Fine Food, prices for 2002 not<br />

RRP since firm was not set up in 2002 -<br />

approx from supplier<br />

Assumes that a housekeeper is required<br />

7 hours a day, 5 days a week and 12<br />

months of the year<br />

From Conde Nast Johansson; price reflect<br />

the highest tariff for a suite in each year<br />

(high season). Converted using exchange<br />

rate at the time<br />

Mr Phil Davies, 112 Harley Street -<br />

frequency is based on a family of 4, with<br />

each family member going to the dentist<br />

every 6 months<br />

Extended 1 hour consultation - frequency<br />

is based on a family of 4, with each<br />

family member going to the GP an<br />

average of 1.5 times every year<br />

18 SALLI | STONEHAGE AFFLUENT LONDON LIVING INDEX<br />

Frequency<br />

(purchased<br />

per year)<br />

40.00 55.00 55.00 540<br />

34,970.00 48,844.00 51,582.00 1<br />

900.00 1,800.00 2,300.00 1<br />

9.00 10.00 10.00 1820<br />

10,854.87 10,560.34 10,579.35 1<br />

35.00 45.00 50.00 8<br />

145.00 165.00 170.00 6


APPENDIX II<br />

AbOUT STONEHAGE<br />

Overview<br />

The Stonehage Group provides international families with<br />

wealth management and fiduciary services. The group has<br />

over $24bn of assets under administration and has offices<br />

in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Jersey, Israel and South<br />

Africa. Stonehage is owned by management and staff, is<br />

independent and intensely relationship driven. Client<br />

objectives are likely to focus on developing, maintaining<br />

and effectively controlling family wealth across generations.<br />

The Stonehage Group ensures that such governance and<br />

legal structures exist as to best meet investment, tax and<br />

wealth transfer objectives. The Group also advises families<br />

on philanthropic arrangements.<br />

Private Client and Trust Division: The core of the Stonehage<br />

business, providing ultra high net worth individuals and<br />

families with value added advice; including succession<br />

planning, governance, trust legal and structuring advice and<br />

administration services.<br />

Advisory Division: Providing independent advice to ultra<br />

high net worth individuals on investment/asset allocation<br />

(Stonehage Investment Partners) and advising on property<br />

investment (Stonehage Property Partners).<br />

TriAlpha: Asset management division, offering range of<br />

multi-manager funds and boutique funds. Assets under<br />

management are currently in the region of $2bn.<br />

Company History<br />

Stonehage was established in 1976 in London to provide<br />

wealthy clients with the means of ensuring security to<br />

their capital. In 1997 Stonehage sold a majority stake in<br />

the business to ABSA Bank. In 2005, the Group returned<br />

to being management controlled. The group now employs<br />

over 275 staff and manages the affairs of over 1,000 client<br />

families.<br />

SALLI Project - Key Executives<br />

Giuseppe Ciucci, CEO<br />

Giuseppe has been Chief Executive Officer of the Stonehage<br />

Group since 1998. He joined Stonehage in 1991, having<br />

previously worked at Deloitte & Touche. He is a qualified lawyer<br />

and Chartered Accountant, holding a Bachelor of Commerce<br />

and LLB degree from the University of Stellenbosch.<br />

Robby Hilkowitz, Head of Group Marketing & Business<br />

Development<br />

Robby is an Executive Director of the Stonehage Group, where<br />

he is Head of Group Marketing & Business Development.<br />

Robby joined Stonehage in 1997 after gaining extensive<br />

experience in world markets at a private forex and derivatives<br />

trading house in Tel Aviv. Robby holds a degree in Finance<br />

and Mathematics from the University of New South Wales in<br />

Sydney, Australia.<br />

David Sable, CEO, TriAlpha<br />

David is the CEO of the TriAlpha Group. He is the portfolio<br />

manager of the Anquiro Fund Limited, a hedge fund he<br />

established in partnership with TriAlpha prior to joining<br />

the group and is a member of the Advisory Committee of<br />

the Stonehage Westcity Property Fund. David obtained an<br />

MBA from Boston University, Massachusetts, a Bachelor of<br />

Commerce (Honours) in Economics from the University of<br />

Cape Town and a Bachelor of Commerce from the University<br />

of the Witwatersrand.<br />

Ronnie Armist, Executive Director<br />

Ronnie is an Executive Director of the Stonehage Group where he<br />

is the Head of the Advisory Unit which incorporates Stonehage<br />

Investment Partners and Stonehage Property Partners. Ronnie<br />

joined the Stonehage Group in 2006 after working at Lombard<br />

Odier for nearly 20 years where he was Chief Executive of the<br />

London office and co-head of the Group’s Institutional Client<br />

Unit. More recently, Ronnie worked as a Director of IPGL Limited<br />

controlled by Michael Spencer, CEO of the ICAP Group. Ronnie<br />

studied Bachelor of Business Science (Hons) at the University<br />

of Cape Town and also completed a BCom (Hons) degree. He<br />

qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1980. Ronnie is based<br />

in our London Office.<br />

Andrew Rodger, Director<br />

Andrew is a Director in the Private Client Division. Andrew<br />

joined the Stonehage Group in 2006 after working for<br />

thirteen years as a practising Barrister in London. Andrew<br />

qualified as a Barrister in 1993 after graduating with honours<br />

from the School of Law, King’s College University of London.<br />

Andrew was admitted to the New York Bar in 2003 and<br />

accredited as a CEDR mediator in 2004. Andrew is based in<br />

our London office.<br />

19


OFFICES<br />

London Zürich Neuchâtel<br />

56 Conduit Street<br />

London<br />

W1S 2YZ<br />

United Kingdom<br />

T +44 20 7087 0000<br />

Usteristrasse 15<br />

Löwenplatz<br />

8001 Zürich<br />

Switzerland<br />

T +41 44 217 9600<br />

Rue du Puits-Godet 12<br />

PO Box 763<br />

2002 Neuchâtel<br />

Switzerland<br />

T +41 32 723 1000<br />

Jersey Israel South Africa<br />

Sir Walter Raleigh House<br />

48/50 Esplanade<br />

St Helier<br />

Jersey JE1 4HH<br />

Channel Islands<br />

T +1534 823 000<br />

Suite 205<br />

Giron Centre<br />

5 Jabotinsky Street<br />

Ra’anana 43363<br />

Israel<br />

T +972 9 771 3335<br />

Block A<br />

7 West Quay<br />

West Quay Road<br />

Victoria & Alfred Waterfront<br />

Cape Town<br />

8001 South Africa<br />

T +27 21 446 2100<br />

ALWAYS THERE

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