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(Pam) 525-3-0, The Army Capstone Concept - Federation of ...

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TRADOC <strong>Pam</strong> <strong>525</strong>-3-0<br />

safe havens within hostile states or in lawless areas. Understanding the dynamics <strong>of</strong> future<br />

armed conflict must be grounded in military history, an analysis <strong>of</strong> recent and ongoing conflicts,<br />

the emerging operational environment, and the potential military application <strong>of</strong> emerging<br />

technologies.<br />

b. Recent and ongoing conflicts have highlighted possibilities as well as limitations<br />

associated with new and emerging technologies. While surveillance, information, and precision<br />

strike technologies have improved the joint force’s ability to see its own forces, identify visible<br />

enemy, share information, and apply joint combat power, it is clear that these capabilities cannot<br />

deliver rapid or decisive victories when confronting determined, adaptive enemies in complex<br />

environments. While recent experiences have not diminished the need for technological<br />

innovation, they have highlighted the need for understanding the application <strong>of</strong> technological<br />

advancements in the context <strong>of</strong> likely missions, the operational environment, and potential<br />

enemy countermeasures.<br />

c. To contextualize and define the problem <strong>of</strong> future conflict, <strong>The</strong> ACC considers two<br />

questions: 10<br />

(1) What current or emergent phenomena are likely to influence the conduct and<br />

character <strong>of</strong> future armed conflict?<br />

(2) How will technologies influence operations in the near future (5 to 10 years)?<br />

d. Efforts to answer these questions reveal challenges for the future force that have<br />

implications for force structure, organization, operations, training, leader development, and<br />

Soldier attributes. Those challenges will place an added premium on adaptability and flexibility<br />

as applied to military leadership: viewing change as an opportunity, having a tolerance for<br />

ambiguity, adjusting rapidly to new or evolving situations, applying different methods to meet<br />

changing priorities, and cultural awareness.<br />

2-3. Harbingers <strong>of</strong> future conflict<br />

a. Recent and ongoing conflicts. Experience during three recent conflicts—Operation Iraqi<br />

Freedom (OIF), the Second Lebanon War (2006), and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF)<br />

reveal factors that are likely to influence the conduct and character <strong>of</strong> future war.<br />

(1) Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) 2003-2009<br />

(a) <strong>The</strong> U.S. <strong>Army</strong>’s experience in OIF demonstrated that U.S. forces must be prepared<br />

to face a broad range <strong>of</strong> enemy organizations that possess a wide array <strong>of</strong> capabilities. Initial<br />

operations in OIF revealed a threat that included both conventional and irregular forces. Over<br />

time, coalition forces and their Iraqi partners confronted combinations <strong>of</strong> terrorist, insurgent,<br />

militia, and criminal organizations in the contexts <strong>of</strong> a coalescing and strengthening insurgency,<br />

a communal struggle for power and resources, a transnational terrorist problem, and various<br />

proxy forces supported by hostile regimes. Enemy organizations varied widely in capabilities<br />

10

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