The Economist - January 29th, 2005

Iraq's election
Hopeful turning point, or descent into chaos?
Jan 27th 2005 | BAGHDAD AND BASRA
From The Economist print edition
Sunday's ballot could make a big difference, but only if a new Iraqi government and the
Americans rethink their failing strategy
IT WILL probably be one of the messiest and most dangerous elections in living memory. In four
of Iraq's 18 provinces where the Sunni Arab insurgency is strongest, including parts of Baghdad,
there may be mayhem on January 30th or, very probably, a derisorily low turnout. In at least
another four provinces (see map below), fear of bombs and bullets is rife. The insurgents, who
have promised to kill voters and make a mockery of the polls, may seek to “play away from
home”, as a British diplomat puts it, by perpetrating terror in previously quieter areas.
Yet there is a surge of hope amidst the terror. While the fifth of Iraqis who are Sunni Arabs are
largely but by no means entirely opposed to the election, nearly all Kurds and a very large
majority of Shia Arabs, who make up another fifth and around three-fifths of Iraqis respectively,
are fiercely in favour. Even if most of the Sunni Arabs voluntarily boycott the polls or are
frightened away, the chances are that two-thirds of Iraq's 14m-odd eligible voters, in a population
of some 25m, may vote in a genuine multi-party election—a dazzling rarity in the Arab world—for
the first time in half a century.
No fewer than 84 parties and 27 candidates running on their own are stuffed into a national list
from which voters may choose their members of a national assembly. In truth, no one knows who
will prevail. The likeliest outcome is that the United Iraqi Alliance (better known by Iraqis as “the
Shia house”, “the clerics' list” or simply “169”, after its number on the vast ballot paper) will do
best without winning an outright majority: the country's most influential clergyman, Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, helped draw up the list, though without formally blessing it.
AP