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Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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10 <strong>Investment</strong> <strong>Banking</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>Summer</strong> <strong>2012</strong> – At a turning point?<br />

> A refocusing and industrialization of value chains is necessary. Winners will evade the<br />

looming shake out by refocusing on their true edge and value proposition. For smaller players<br />

this might mean concentrating on sales, basic structuring and counterparty risk absorption<br />

with strict focus on their privileged corporate banking and other quasi-captive franchises.<br />

Likewise industry utilities and true "bank for bank" leaders will emerge to fill this void while<br />

other large players might choose to focus on certain products, client segments and regional<br />

niches, in which critical mass can be reached independent of a full scale offering.<br />

> Moving fast will be essential and earning the right to grow and consolidate will mean<br />

stepping -up efficiency programs.<br />

> Sooner or later the industry will tackle its over-capacity as mid-sized players that neither<br />

managed to focus nor to catch up with volume leaders will need to exit some product lines.<br />

> Some capacity will continue to shift into emerging markets and more and more bankers<br />

will head from London and New York to Sao Paulo, Singapore, and Hong Kong as well as<br />

places like Jakarta. However, there will be more aspirants than opportunities as the battle<br />

for emerging growth markets heats up: Global firms build their presence on the ground<br />

(especially beyond hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore). Regional champions such<br />

as Standard Chartered in Asia or Itau in Latin America invest into their IB capabilities and<br />

local players get serious on various forms of IB, CIB or merchant banking growth.<br />

Moving decisively and robustly executing this transformation while maintaining day to day<br />

focus on capturing business and managing risk in volatile and adverse market conditions will<br />

be paramount. Perhaps another five years down the road we will look back on <strong>2012</strong> as the<br />

year that decided the fate of banks that survived and those banks that did not.

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