Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 (PDF ... - Roland Berger

10 Investment Banking Outlook Summer 2012 – At a turning point?
> A refocusing and industrialization of value chains is necessary. Winners will evade the
looming shake out by refocusing on their true edge and value proposition. For smaller players
this might mean concentrating on sales, basic structuring and counterparty risk absorption
with strict focus on their privileged corporate banking and other quasi-captive franchises.
Likewise industry utilities and true "bank for bank" leaders will emerge to fill this void while
other large players might choose to focus on certain products, client segments and regional
niches, in which critical mass can be reached independent of a full scale offering.
> Moving fast will be essential and earning the right to grow and consolidate will mean
stepping -up efficiency programs.
> Sooner or later the industry will tackle its over-capacity as mid-sized players that neither
managed to focus nor to catch up with volume leaders will need to exit some product lines.
> Some capacity will continue to shift into emerging markets and more and more bankers
will head from London and New York to Sao Paulo, Singapore, and Hong Kong as well as
places like Jakarta. However, there will be more aspirants than opportunities as the battle
for emerging growth markets heats up: Global firms build their presence on the ground
(especially beyond hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore). Regional champions such
as Standard Chartered in Asia or Itau in Latin America invest into their IB capabilities and
local players get serious on various forms of IB, CIB or merchant banking growth.
Moving decisively and robustly executing this transformation while maintaining day to day
focus on capturing business and managing risk in volatile and adverse market conditions will
be paramount. Perhaps another five years down the road we will look back on 2012 as the
year that decided the fate of banks that survived and those banks that did not.