Download the charts from my presentation. - TTI Inc.

20111115
BUSINESS OUTLOOK
GLOBAL ELECTRONICS
INDUSTRY
(with emphasis on Europe)
WALT CUSTER
CUSTER CONSULTING GROUP
www.custerconsulting.com
November 2011

20111114
European Electronic Supply Chain Growth
3Q'11 vs 3Q'10
Electronic Equipment
Consumer Electronics
Office equipment
Instruments & Controls
Medical electronics
Automotive electronics
Computer & Periperals
Domestic Electric Appliances
Motor Vehcles
Semiconductors (SIA)
Electronic components & boards
Loaded electronic boards
Wiring devices
-20
% Change
Euro denominated growth rates; Eurostat, SIA & Custer Consulting Group
-11
-6
-10
-5
-2
3
3
8
10
13
17
24
27
31
0 10 20 30 40

20050118
20110705
Business Conditions
2010 through mid-2011 was a period of significant growth.
Excess ordering & inventory building occurred.
Electronic supply chain expansion has recently stalled.
Solar/photovoltaic growth has slowed.
Major Issues:
- Europe's tighter fiscal policies, squeezed consumer
purchasing power & sovereign-debt tensions
- U.S. high unemployment & political wrangling
- China's rising costs, labor shortages & real estate bubble.
- Japan's strong yen hurting exports & ongoing effects of
earthquake & nuclear disaster
- Thailand flooding (shifting business to Europe short term)

20050118
Goals of this Talk
Where are we in business cycle?
Identify highest growth market
segments
Tools to forecast next growth phase

20050118
Global
&
European Economies

20111102
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
World Electronic Equipment, PCB &
Semiconductor Shipments
3/12 rate of change
PCBs
"0" Growth
Semiconductors
Electronic Equipment
3 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Custer Consulting Group
CALENDAR YEAR

20111114
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
Industrial Production
Index (2005 avg month = 100, Seasonally Adjusted))
Eur27
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Series 6
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Eurostat, NACE Code B-D
Europe
CALENDAR YEAR

20050118
Electronic Equipment

20111006
World Electronic Equipment by Type 2011
COMMUNICATION
CONSUMER
Electronic Outlook 10/11
AUTO
13.2%
22.9%
6.6%
BUSINESS
1.7%
8.1%
29.8%
COMPUTER
INSTRUMENT
8.6%
9.3%
INDUSTRIAL
GOV
MILITARY
$2,019 Billion @ 2010 exchange

20111110
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
$ Billion
Electronic Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 104 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
3Q'11 Financials estimated based upon partial data
+6%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Revenue 139146151158137142135144129132134147136143149167162171168189175181183201188197202222207221230256235248246239208219228259238250263292268280278
Income 12 12 11 8 -1 -5 -12 0 3 -11 0 1 6 5 8 12 12 14 13 16 14 15 14 22 17 12 18 20 19 21 20 21 20 20 17 -3 11 16 18 25 20 24 28 35 29 31 28
Inventory 63 65 68 70 72 65 58 53 52 50 48 45 45 46 45 46 48 49 49 49 51 51 52 51 54 57 60 59 58 62 64 64 68 70 70 65 62 61 61 61 63 65 68 71 72 77 78
Computer 12, Internet 5, Storage 10, Communication 12, SEMI 20, Medical 24, Instruments 11, Military 6

20111110
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
Electronic Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 104 Public Companies
Quarterly Revenue Growth
% Growth (quarter vs same quarter in prior year)
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Computer 11, Internet 5, Storage 10, Communication 11, SEMI 13, Medical 24, Instruments 6, Military 6

20111110
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
Inventory/Sales Ratio
Large Component Distributors, Semiconductor, EMS &
Quarterly Inventory/Sales ($) OEM Companies
3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CY
4 Component Distributor, 18 Semiconductor, 12 EMS and 104 OEM Company Composite
Semiconductor
EMS
OEM
Component Distrib
Distr
Chips
EMS
OEM

European Computer, Electronic & Optical products
Production
20111114
130
120
110
100
90
80
Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted
1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 47101 4 7101 47101 47101 4710
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Eurostat, C26 category, EU 27 countries
CALENDAR YEAR

20111026
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Japan Electronic Equipment Production
2000 to Present
Yen billion
-17%
-3%
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
JEITA www.jeita.or.jp/
+2%
+1%
-2%
+7%
CALENDAR YEAR
Elec Application Equip
Electronic Business Machines
Computers & Related Equipment
Communications Equipment
Electronic Measuring Instrumentation
Consumer Electronic Equipment
-18% -26%
+12%
-14%

20111111
800
600
400
200
Taiwan/China Electronic Equipment Producers
Composite of 101 Manufacturers
0
NT$ (billions)
2010/2009 up 32%
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 911
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR
Taiwan listed companies, often with significant manufacturing in China

20111105
US Electronic Equipment Orders & Shipments
Communications, Computer, Military, Instruments
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
$B (Monthly Orders - Seasonally Adjusted)
1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 710
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
Shipments
Orders
CALENDAR YEAR

20111114
Global Electronic Equipment Shipment Growth
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
3/12 rate of growth in local currency
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR
Taiwan/China
Europe
Japan
USA
0 Growth
Europe = Eurostat EU27 NACE C26 (computer, electronic & optical products)

20111006
World Electronic Equipment by Region 2011
N America
Electronic Outlook
10/11
W Europe
@ 2010 Exchange Rates
21.6%
12.5%
ROW
9.3%
6.2%
Japan
50.4%
Total Production: $2,019 Billion
Final
Assembly
Rest of Asia

20111114
100
80
60
40
20
0
World Electronic Equipment Monthly
Shipments
Converted @ Constant 2010 Exchange Rates
$ Billions
N America W Europe Japan SE Asia ROW
135 7911135 79111 357 91113 57911135 79111357 9111 35791113 57911135 79111 357 91113 5791113 57911
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Custer Consulting Group
CALENDAR YEAR

20111114
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
World Electronic Equipment Monthly
Shipments
$ Billions
Converted @ Constant 2010 Exchange Rates
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Custer Consulting Group
CALENDAR YEAR

20050118
End Markets
- Asian Volume
- Regional

20111110
Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth
3Q'11 vs. 3Q'10
Electronic Equipment
Military
Business & Office
Instruments & Controls
Medical
Communication
Internet
Computer
Data Storage
SEMI Equip
Semiconductors (SIA)
Passive Components
Component Distrib
EMS-Large
EMS-Medium
ODM
PCB
PCB Process Equip
-10
-7
-5
-4
-5
-3
-2
-2
1
2
4
5
6
6
5
7
9
12
11
13
0 5 10 15
% Change
US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions

20050118
Volume
SE Asian
Markets

20111110
200
150
100
50
Computer, Data Storage, Datacom & Telecom
Equipment Suppliers
Composite of 43 Public Companies
0
-50
$ Billion
3Q'11 Financials estimated based upon partial data
+7%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Revenue 94 100105110 93 97 91 96 83 85 85 94 85 88 91 105 98 99 101116105108111124113118122138126135141162145154153149125132138161144152162186167175173
Income 8 8 7 6 -5 -7 -12 0 1 -13 -3 -0 3 3 5 7 6 7 7 10 8 9 9 12 9 9 11 13 10 13 12 12 11 10 9 2 7 10 10 16 12 14 17 22 18 18 18
Inventory 38 40 44 45 46 39 33 29 27 25 24 22 21 22 21 21 22 24 24 23 24 24 25 24 26 27 29 29 29 32 33 32 34 35 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 30 32 34 34 36 38
Computer 11, Internet 5, Storage 10, Communication 11

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Smartphone Unit Shipments
Units (Millions)
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
07 08 09 10 11
400
300
200
100
20
Volume
Market
Drivers
Media Tablet Shipments
Emerging & Mature Markets
64
110
163
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mature 17 39 70 99 120 140 163 182
Emerging 4 25 40 64 88 119 148 185
209
259
311
367

20050118
European
Markets

20050118
Automotive
Electronics

20111114
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
Eurostat, C219
European Motor Vehicle Production
Monthly Index (Year 2005 = 100)
Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted
1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 71014 71014 71014 7101 4 71014 71014 71014 71014 71014 71014 710
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR

20111114
120
100
80
60
40
Eurostat, C2931
European Motor Vehicle
Electrical & Electronics Production
Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted
1 4 7 101 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 710 1 4 7 101 4 7 10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR

20050118
Aerospace

20111114
140
130
120
110
100
European Production - Aircraft, Spacecraft &
Related Equipment
90
80
70
Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted
14 71014 7101 4 71014 71014 71014 71014 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 710
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Eurostat, C303
CALENDAR YEAR

20050118
Instruments & Control
Equipment

20111110
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
US$ Billions
Instruments & Control Equipment
Composite of 12 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Revenue 9.2 9.410.29.5 9.6 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 7.9 8.1 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.3 9.8 9.7 9.710.110.710.911.012.313.113.813.414.115.015.113.111.912.112.512.712.813.214.214.114.615.516.0
Income 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3-0.1-0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 3.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.3
Inventory 6.4 6.5 5.5 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.8 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.7 7.0 6.7
Agilent, Ametek, Emerson, Itron, Keithly, LeCroy, PerkinElmer, Rockwell Automation, Teledyne,
ThermoFisher, Varian, Woodward Govenor
+12%

20111114
European Production - Instruments &
Appliances for Measuring, Testing & Navigation
120
110
100
90
80
Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted
14 71014 7101 4 71014 71014 71014 71014 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 710
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Eurostat, C2651
CALENDAR YEAR

20111110
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
$ (Billions)
Medical Equipment
Composite of 24 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
3Q'11 Financials estimated based upon partial data
+9%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Revenue 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 16 17 18 18 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 25 25 26 26 26 25 26 26 28 27 28 28 30 29 30 30
Income 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 -2 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 4 3 1 3 4 4 3 2 4 4 5 4 5 3
Inventory 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 14 13 14 14 15 15 15
Abbott Laboratories, Analogic, Bio-Rad Laboratories, Boston Scientific, Bruker, CareFusion, Covidien,
Draeger, Guidant, Hill-Rom, Intuitive Surgical, Invacare, Kinetic Concepts, Medtronic, ResMed, St Jude
Medical, Smith & Nephew, STERIS, Stryker, Varian Medical, Waters, Zimmer, Zoll

20111114
European Production - Irradiation,
Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Equipment
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Index (2005=100), Seasonally Adjusted
14 71014 7101 4 71014 71014 71014 71014 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 710
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Eurostat, C266
CALENDAR YEAR

20050118
Semiconductors

20111031
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
3/12 Rate of Change
1
2 3
Global Semiconductor Shipments
3-Month Growth Rates on $ Basis
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Total $ Shipments from All Countries to an Area
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 12
13

20111031
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
SIA
World Semiconductor Shipments
US$ Billions (3-month average)
Monthly US$
Record high
2009 recession
much sharper
but shorter
than 2001
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

20111031
15
10
5
0
Total Semiconductor Shipments to an Area
Monthly Shipments - Reporting Firms
$B - 3-Month average
Japan
N America
Europe
Asia Pac
1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
SIA website: www.sia-online.org/
SE
Asia

20111114
Semiconductor Shipments to Europe
vs. European Electronic Equipment Production
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
3/12 Rate of Change (Euros converted @ fluctuating exchange)
Component/Electronic Equipment
Imbalances
Semiconductors
Equipment
13579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Total $ Semiconductor Shipments from All Countries to Europe www.sia-online.org/,
Eurostat class C26, EU27, European Computer, Electronic & Optical products Production

20050118
Semiconductor Fab, Assembly,
Packaging,Test & Measurement
Equipment

20110913
Semiconductor Capital Equipment Shipments
by Area
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
$ Billions
10.1
11.7
13.0 12.9
11.3
6.6
5.6
4.1 4.1
4.7
5.7
5.1
5.6
4.4
4.9
5.4
9.8 9.4
8.7 8.8
9.4
7.6
8.0 8.0
9.6 9.6
11.0
11.0
11.2
10.8
10.3
10.6
9.8
7.8
6.6
4.6
3.1
2.7
4.5
5.7
7.5
9.1
11.1
11.9 12.0 11.9
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
ROW 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 4.4 4.9 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0
China 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.1
Taiwan 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 3.2 3.2 2.3 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.8
S Korea 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 2.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.8 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.7 1.7 2.2
N America 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.9 2.2
Japan 2.2 1.8 2.6 2.6 3.4 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 2.5 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5
Europe 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2
www.semi.org, 9/2011

20111101
Global Semiconductor & Semiconductor Capital Equipment
3-Month Shipment Growth Rates on $ Basis
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
3/12 Rate of Change
Semiconductors
SEMI Capital Equip
Series 5
Chips
Capital Equipment
159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159159
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sources: SIA; Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan, www.semi.org

20050118
Solar/Photovoltaic

20111111
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
Solar/Photovoltaic Financials
Composite of 60 Public Companies
US$ (millions)
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Note: currencies converted to US$
@ fluctuating exchange
Preliminary 3Q'11 estimate
+8%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
06 07 08 09 10 11
Revenue 2912 3327 3516 4279 4090 4795 5999 6832 6627 9022 9253 7462 5086 6183 770410216 8721113381285914524117971273413882
Income -493 -244 -438 -689 -782 -251 -714 -834 -466 -70 -1055 -1511 -1629 -2183 -4089 -2995 -2609 -2079 -1567 -1289 -1674 -3568 -3616
Inventory 1938 2240 3044 3090 3622 4452 4821 5307 6315 7346 7431 7023 7425 7531 6746 5814 6880 7476 8848 9324115261246012119

20111111
Taiwan Solar/Photovoltaic Panel Companies
Composite of 17 Manufacturers
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
NT$ billions
2010/2009 Revenue
Up 80%
135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR
Big Sun Energy Technology, Daxon, DelSolar, e_TON Solar Tec, Eversol, Gintech, Green Energy Technology (GET),
Ligitek, Motech, Neo Solar Power, Phoenixtec Power Co (PPC), Precision Silicon, Sino-American Silicon Products,
Sonartech, Sysgration, Tyntek, Wafer Works

20050118
Component
Distributors

20111111
800
600
400
200
0
DMASS
European Semiconductor Distribution Industry
Euros (millions)
Georg Steinberger, chairman of DMASS, commented on the results: “While 2011 is still set to be a growth year after all,
the decline in the summer quarter definitely shows that the overheated market comes back to normal. The next few
quarters will be challenging as the comparable basis in the record years 2010 and early 2011 are extremely high. It
remains to be determined whether or not the current weakness was just an inventory correction and therefore
short-term.”
551
151
Germany
Italy
UK
France
E Europe
Other
DMASS 11/2011 http://dmass.com/
197
420
531
138 136 128
109 104
3Q 3Q
10 11
228
373

20111111
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Euros (millions)
1121
1027 983 967
12001220 1170 1185
1153
1093
1060
1130
DMASS
1380 1400
1340
1270
1480
1370
1310
1210
1372 1340
1220
1075
992
869
926 960
1345
1560
1500
1470
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Other 346 331 983 693 403 422 418 377 392 391 376 406 461 481 475 462 513 503 487 467 497 502 464 417 370 321 361 381 510 590 609 596 696 664 601
France 116 103 122 125 118 118 124 116 105 107 133 130 118 113 129 117 107 102 114 111 96 93 91 78 73 78 111 118 109 112 130 122 104
UK 157 144 149 154 154 133 137 138 138 140 149 158 154 142 146 133 127 109 117 116 110 101 86 82 86 83 112 128 138 125 144 138 128
Italy 161 152 158 171 138 140 175 166 131 144 198 193 159 160 201 182 155 152 183 174 132 117 116 99 91 104 155 166 153 143 200 183 136
Germany 342 297 274 368 348 342 292 357 342 343 333 439 438 434 393 491 435 434 380 461 437 419 347 329 289 315 314 457 498 551 494 640 603 531
http://dmass.com/
European Semiconductor Distribution Industry
1810
1710
1500

20050118
EMS & ODM
Companies

20111110
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
Large EMS Providers
Composite of 10 Public Companies
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Excludes Foxconn
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Benchmark+Pemstar, Celestica, Elcoteq, Flextronics+Solectron, Jabil, Plexus, Sanmina-SCI, Sypris,
Universal Scientific, Venture Mfg

20111111
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Taiwan ODM Companies
Composite Sales of 10 Large Manufacturers
NT$ (Billions)
2010/2009
+34%
13579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Company Financial Releases
CALENDAR YEAR
Asustek Computer, Chei Mei, Compal Electronics, Foxconn, Chimei Innolux , Inventec, Inventec
Appliance, Lite On Technology, Mitac International, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Chei Mei Display
replacing Chei Mei & Innolux Display 3/10 & later

20050118
PCB
Fabrication

20110914
2010 World Rigid & Flex PCB Production by
Geographical Area
IPC 7/2011
China/HK
(US$ M @ Average 2010 Exchange)
Japan
40.3%
12.7%
17.0%
Taiwan
5.2%
11.1%
6.7%
0.6%
6.3%
Total: $55.2 Billion
Europe
S Korea
N America
ROW
Rest of Asia

20111026
100
80
60
40
20
0
Yen (billion)
Japan PCB Shipments
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
www.jpca.org/kikaitoukei/kikai2011.xls
CALENDAR YEAR
2010/2009
+16%

20111111
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Taiwan Rigid & Flex PCB Shipments
Broad Composite of 42 Taiwan-listed Manufacturers
NT$ Billions
135791113 579111357 911135791113579111357 91113579111 35791113 5791113579111357911
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Company Financial Releases
Up 19% in 2009 vs 2008
CALENDAR YEAR

20110815
2010 European Rigid & Flex PCB Production
Germany 1,170
US$ converted @ avg 2010 exchange rates
Austria 216
41.4%
7.6%
8.5%
Italy 239
IPC World PCB Production Report for 2010, 8/11
Turkey 25
0.9%
7.2%
8.0%
4.1%
2.1%
3.0%
1.9%
6.9%
Russia & FSRs 203
8.4%
France 225
Total: US$2,824 Million
Central Europe 115
Benelux 58
Scandinavia 85
Spain & Portugal 55
Switzerland 237
UK & Ireland 196

20100711
M Gasch 6/2011
2010 European PCB Companies
Rank Maker Rank Maker
1 Wurth 26 Greule
2 AT&S 27 Cistel-Laier
3 Schweizer Electronic 28 Optiprint
4 Multek 29 LPP Pfullingen
5 KSG 30 Rohde & Schwarz
6 Ruwel Int. 31 Precoplat
7 Elvia Group 32 Technoflex
8 Mektec Europe 33 ACB
9 Cire Group 34 Eltos
10 PPC 35 Freudenberg Mechatronic
11 Somacis 36 Europrint Eger
12 Schoeller 37 Ilfa
13 GS Swiss PCB 38 Exception
14 Dyconex 39 Ramaer
15 Cicor Group 40 Cofidur-Tecchi
16 Invotec 41 Graphic
17 Hausermann 42 Elekonta Marek
18 Flacon Group 43 Cimulec
19 Varioprint 44 TW Elektronek
20 Polytron Print 45 Jenaer Lp
21 Schaltungsdruck Storz 46 Fela
22 Elco 47 Pri Dana
23 hmp 48 ggp Peters
24 Aspocomp 49 Cebisa
25 OMR 50 Cipsa
Total 1,957 Million Euros (production in Europe only)

20110711
M Gasch 6/11
2010 European PCB Production
Rank of Group, Group Subtotal (Euro Million)
6-10
206
1-5
487
24.9%
10.5%
11-15
147 16-20
112
21-25
98
28.5%
7.5%
5.7% 5.0% 4.3%
2.7%
3.2%
3.7%
3.9%
26-30
84
Total: 1,957 Million Euro
(production in Europe only)
Others
559
36-40
72
31-35
76
46-50
52
41-45
62

20111115
2.2
2.1
2
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
B/B (1-month)
PCB Book/Bill - VdL/ZVEI
Primarily German PCB Makers
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 911
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
VdL/ZVEI
www.zvei.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Presse/

20111031
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
European PCB Monthly Shipments
Euros (fluctuating exchange)
13579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR
Source: Custer Consulting Group estimate based upon industry data

20111026
IPC
N American Rigid PCB Shipments & Orders
200
150
100
50
0
$M (statistical sample of about 50% of producers)
Orders
Shipments
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR
2010/2009 Rigid PCB
Shipment Growth:
+17.8%
Note: IPC survey captures "market" not domestic production. About 15% of the above represents imported boards
resold by N American PCB producers in survey.

20050118
World PCB Model

20111111
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Regional PCB Shipment Growth
3/12 rate of growth in local currency
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CALENDAR YEAR
Taiwan/China
Europe
Japan
N America
0 Growth
Sources: IPC, JPCA, Taiwan/China composite; modified SIA chip shipments to approximate Europe

20110914
2010 World Rigid & Flex PCB Production by
Geographical Area
IPC 7/2011
China/HK
(US$ M @ Average 2010 Exchange)
Japan
40.3%
12.7%
17.0%
Taiwan
5.2%
11.1%
6.7%
0.6%
6.3%
Total: $55.2 Billion
Europe
S Korea
N America
ROW
Rest of Asia

20111031
4 Thousands
3
2
1
0
World PCB Monthly Shipments
Converted @ Constant 2010 Exchange Rates
N America Europe Japan ROA
1357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911135791113579111357911
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Custer Consulting Group
CALENDAR YEAR

20050118
Leading Indicators

20091008
Useful Leading Indicators
Economic Composites
Purchasing Managers Indices
- Global
- Regional

20110803
China
Custer Consulting Group
Semiconductor Shipments
PMI Geographical Weighting
N America
21.9%
18.4%
14.7%
Japan
12.2%
Europe
32.8%
Rest of Asia

20111102
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
3/12 rate of growth
CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator
vs. Global Semiconductor Shipments
CCG Semiconductor Leading Indicator
Zero Growth
SIA Semiconductor Shipments
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
CALENDAR YEAR
2-month
lead

20110803
China
Custer Consulting Group
Taiwan
PCB Shipments
PMI Geographical Weighting
33.9%
13.5%
12.2%
S Korea
7.3%
0.7%
5.8%
N America
ROW
Europe
6.7%
20.0%
Rest of Asia
Japan

20111102
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
3/12 rate of change
PCB PMI vs. PCB Shipments
PCB "0" Growth PCB PMI
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Custer Consulting Group
1-Month Lead +
2-Months more Timely
CALENDAR YEAR

2
0
0
5
0
1
1
Forecasts
&
Conclusions

20111114
Electronic Equipment Production Growth
Current $ Growth Rates Converted @ Constant Exchange Rates
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
World -8.0 16.3 1.8 5.4 7.8
USA -10.8 6.8 -0.4 1.5 3.5
W Europe -17.2 6.6 2.5 2.1 3.4
Japan -25.6 11.1 -10.8 6.6 4.2
Four Tigers -8.3 13.5 3.8 5.3 9.1
China 0.6 28.4 4.1 7.5 11.3
Henderson Ventures 11/2011
www.hendersonventures.com

20111031
60
50
40
30
20
$ Billion
World PCB Shipments (with forecast)
Converted @ Constant 2010 Exchange Rates
Growth calculations:
Europe = composite European SIA & local PCB
assoc data
Japan & N. America from JPCA & IPC data
Taiwan/China:44 rigid & flex company
composite
Rest of Asia growth = Taiwan/China 44
company composite
+19%
-14%
31.6 38.6 31.2 29.4 31.7 37.6 42.9 51.7 54.3 53.2 45.9 54.5
1 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111 3 5 7 9111
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CALENDAR YEAR
Source: Custer Consulting Group - 2010 base year expanded by monthly growth of N. American,
European, Japanese & Taiwan/China monthly PCB shipments
0%
54.9
+3%
56.5

20111102
World Global PMI, Electronic Equipment, PCB &
Semiconductor Shipments
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
3/12 rate of change
PCB "0" Growth SIA
El Equip Global PMI
3 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9123 6 9
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Custer Consulting Group
CALENDAR YEAR

20111114
5
4.6
4.2
3.8
3.4
3
2.6
2.2
1.8
1.4
1
0.6
0.2
European Computer, Electronic and Optical Products,
Semiconductors, & SEMI Equipment Shipments
Euro 3/12 Rate of Change
Semiconductor shipments to Europe
Computer, electronic and optical products
SEMI equipment shipments to Europe
DMASS-electronic component distribution
Zero growth
13 57911135 7911135 7911135 79111 357 9111 35791113 57911135 7911135 79111 357 9111 35791113 5791113 579/11
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Total $ Semiconductor Shipments from All Countries to Europe www.sia-online.org/, Eurostat class C26
& SEMI, CCG Extrapolation of SEMI growth

20050118
20110622
Growth has now slowed.
Global economy is very fragile.
Final Comments
Yet some end markets remain fundamentally healthy.
Early 2012 will be difficult, but good opportunties will still
exist.
Focus on the high growth markets and customers.
Watch the leading indicators.
2012 is the tear to take market share from your competitors!