2024 FORECASTS Continued
2024 FORECASTS Continued Dave Halsey Patrick Lumber Company Philomath, OR Wesley Robinson Robinson Lumber Company New Orleans, LA 2023 has exceeded our expectations, 2024 has a similar uncertainty to last year’s planning due to geopolitical and economic conditions. Interest rates and the election cycle figure to be most relevant in forward planning. Patrick Lumber plans to further invest in our people, processing and remain focused on our core businesses. The upper grades of softwoods, especially Vertical Grain clears were the best movers in 2023 for our distribution customer base. Contemporary design elements in high-end home construction across the USA were in favor. Timber frame construction, which we highlighted in our headquarters building in Philomath, also has a strong showing in 2023. In 2023, we expanded our low grade customer base in several softwood categories including southern yellow pine. We continued expanding the Hardwood lumber business, especially West Coast Hardwoods like Oak, Maple and Alder. We purchased 10 acres next to our Philomath kiln and re-saw facility late in 2022 and began production in early 2023 of West Coast Hardwoods. We continued to add to the mill installing more equipment. In 2024 we plan to complete installation of a Salem headrig which should increase production 10x. Our customers are showing high levels of interest in the West Coast Hardwoods that have been historically slash burned in the forest or sent to the pulp markets. We continue to look for quality employees in all of our main business units. The strong support for wood products in Benton County home of Oregon State University, a land grant school, has helped in recruiting. Losing ocean service to Europe from Portland and then Tacoma has increased the shipping costs for European customers. Along with the strong USD$ this has been the biggest impact. Right now, we don’t have any concerns with tariffs, we are dealing with them just like everyone else. Therefore, it’s a level playing field and has no impact. b The year 2023 brought a mix of challenges and achievements for Robinson Lumber Company. While our export sales to Asia and Europe faced some setbacks, our North American sales remained robust, ensuring that the year could still be counted as a success. With export sales presenting a hurdle, we are placing our hopes on the strength of the North American market to drive our success in 2024. At Robinson Lumber, we primarily serve manufacturers who possess a keen eye for yields. Once they witness the value we offer in terms of wood quality and precision, they return for more. Notably, our sales to flooring customers experienced significant growth this year, especially in our value-added sorted to width and ripped to width strips. Among our products, White Oak shone the brightest in 2023. Our commitment to continuous improvement is exemplified by ongoing investments in our flagship yard located in New Albany, IN. Recently, we doubled the yard’s size and introduced the state-of-the-art Combi-CSS Slip Loader. This new addition enhances our ability to stage and load containers and flatbeds efficiently and safely. We also have plans to expand our kiln capacity in the near future. The American Hardwoods industry is intricately linked to the global demand for wood products. However, we’ve observed increasingly frequent supply and demand imbalances, resulting in sharp price fluctuations. These market dynamics can challenge the maintenance of consistently profitable operations. For over 130 years, Robinson Lumber Company has not merely survived; we have thrived, grown and diversified. As we look ahead to 2024, we embrace the unique challenges that lie ahead with confidence and a commitment to innovation and adaptation. Thank you for your ongoing support and partnerships. We are excited to face the opportunities and challenges of the future. b David Messer MacBeath Hardwood Company Edinburgh, IN Overall, 2023 was not without its challenges, but all in all it was a successful year. Looking ahead to 2024 I think the main challenge will be the availability of lumber. Specifically, the availability of the items most desirable. As it becomes more difficult for sawmills to produce grade lumber profitably in general, naturally there will be less of the few items that everyone wants. It seems as though the majority of the demand for Hardwood products is focused on a minority of the growing stock in the woods, which throws things out of balance for sawmills and log producers. This certainly isn’t a new challenge for 2024, but an ongoing challenge for the industry as a whole. The challenges that steep price adjustments in both directions present will be something that we all become more acquainted with in the coming year. A nice side effect of an economy that is moving very slowly is the availability of transportation. The cost of freight domestically and the availability of equipment necessary for export, as well as the cost to move that equipment have both improved over the course of this year, and outside of seasonal events that have an effect on flatbeds, I don’t see the ratio of trucks to loads tightening as we enter the new year. b Éric Sauvé Simon Lussier, Ltd. Blainville, QC Overall, it was an okay year. Much better than what we had anticipated but definitely not as profitable as the last couple years. We must overcome short term green lumber supply issues, so we have enough kiln-dried lumber to start off the new year and to continue to push sales. Most of our customers are furniture manufacturers and stair builders. The most popular products have been 4/4 through 8/4 Yellow Birch and Hard Maple. This year we have introduced European steamed Beech to our domestic customers and are still testing the market. We have installed a new kiln which added 100,000 board feet measure to our capacity. Thankfully this year was good to us and we did not have as much turnover as previous years. We have not had or expect any problems regarding tariffs from Canada. b 38 DECEMBER 2023 n NATIONAL HARDWOOD MAGAZINE RealAmericanHardwood.com/industry RealAmericanHardwood.com/industry DECEMBER 2023 n NATIONAL HARDWOOD MAGAZINE 39
