FORECASTS - Continued
FORECASTS - Continued from page 49 for pallets and packaging. No. 2 and better dimension should continue to firm as the building season gets ready to pick back up, considering modest housing starts, compared to historic levels. Consistent take away for Pine and White Fir Industrials remains to be steady. Jerry Hingle International Trade Associates On Behalf of the Southern Forest Products Association New Orleans, LA Southern Pine lumber exports continue to reach record levels and are expected to eclipse 850 million board feet by year’s end. Shipments will climb further Jerry Hingle in 2019, although the record pace of export growth to China is expected to wane as tariffs imposed on Softwood lumber imports raise the cost of landed material. The Southern Forest Products Association (SFPA), under the promotional banner Southern Pine Council (SPC), is therefore stepping up its promotional efforts in new alternative export markets to keep the momentum going. While mature markets in Europe and the Caribbean remain important, much of SFPA’s work will center on expanding sales to markets in Southeast Asia, South America, Central America, and North Africa. Our research shows that there is plenty of room to expand shipments to these markets, provided we train buyers on the unique qualities of Southern Pine lumber. A key challenge SFPA members face in new emerging markets – particularly those accustomed to tropical hardwoods – is the buyers’ misunderstanding of U.S. Softwood lumber grades and sizes as well as how to properly handle and store kiln-dried Softwoods. The U.S.’s grading system is unique, and it takes a lot to train traders and specifiers about how to choose U.S. products best suited to their needs. To this end, SFPA has held dozens of training seminars reaching hundreds of buyers in new markets such as Vietnam, Thailand, and even Pakistan. We’re encouraged to see the training efforts paying off, with exports to many newly targeted markets rising sharply. And surveys of overseas buyers continue to show that SFPA’s educational work is having a direct impact on awareness and sales of Southern Pine. Encouragingly, the “trade war” has thus far had a marginal effect on our industry. No country has placed retaliatory tariffs on Softwood lumber as a result of Washington’s 232 action aimed to curb imports of steel and aluminum. And the new NAFTA – or USMCA – keeps tariffs on U.S. Softwood lumber exports to Mexico and Canada at zero. However, Washington’s 301 action against China has prompted a 10 percent tariff on U.S. Softwood lumber imports which is already dampening sales to that country. Should tariffs rise to 25 percent as they are slated to, exports to that market are expected to fall by 70 percent, equating to tens of millions of dollars in lost sales. Nevertheless, SFPA remains optimistic when considering exports over the coming years. Thanks to abundant fiber supply and a rapid increase in highly automated production capacity, the Southern United States is becoming among the world’s most competitive suppliers. Buyers are not only turning to Southern Pine for their unique characteristics but also for the need to source legal and sustainable material for use in furniture production destined for western markets. Demand in the Caribbean will continue to grow as it rebuilds after hurricanes ravaged several islands. Budding new markets in South America and Central America are showing promise as are markets in Southeast Asia as a decline in the quantity and quality of domestic logs are driving buyers to source lumber from the United States. This coming year, SFPA will continue to expand its presence in many markets that are new to our members. Our efforts in Southeast Asia will continue and we will begin to seek new opportunities in North Africa and South America. Among our main roles is to provide members the tools they need to expand their international sales by way of trade leads, trade show participation and SFPA’s international library of publications in a dozen languages. As we expand our efforts to connect buyers with sellers, we expect to see Southern Pine export sales continuing their climb. n GROWING THE PIE - Continued from page 12 neglect – catastrophic wildfire, insects, and disease – than are being harvested and utilized as wood products. We should all be concerned with the dangerous conditions on our federal forests. But this situation also offers opportunities that can lift the Softwood lumber industry and rural economies, while improving the health of our forests. Through Miller Miller Wood Trade Publications proudly serves the Forest Products Industry with the following publications and online directories National Hardwood Magazine www.nationalhardwoodmag.com Hardwood Purchasing Handbook www.hardwoodpurchasinghdbk.com Forest Products Export Directory www.forestproductsexport.com Imported Wood Purchasing Guide www.importedwoodpurchasing.com Dimension & Wood Components Buyer’s Guide www.dimensionwoodcomponent.com Greenbook’s Hardwood Marketing Directory www.millerwoodtradepub.com Greenbook’s Softwood Marketing Directory (on-line only) www.millerwoodtradepub.com Import/Export Wood Purchasing News www.woodpurchasingnews.com The Softwood Forest Products Buyer www.softwoodbuyer.com The Softwood Forest Products Buyer Special NAWLA Edition www.softwoodbuyer.com Forest Products Stock Exchange (on-line only) www.millerwoodtradepub.com P.O. Box 34908 Memphis, TN 38184-0908 (800) 844-1280 or (901) 372-8280 Fax: (901) 373-6180 www.millerwoodtradepub.com PLEASE VISIT US ONLINE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT OUR PUBLICATIONS Page 50 Softwood Forest Products Buyer n January/February 2019 SFWD ALL PUB HORIZONTAL.indd 1 9/16/17 11:58 AM
good public policy, policymakers can increase opportunities for active forest management. By working proactively with the forest sector, the federal government can restore at-risk lands while providing the fiber that meets America’s growing demand for wood products. Let’s work together and grow the pie through good public policy. Nick Smith is Executive Director of Healthy Forests, Healthy Communities, a non-profit, non-partisan grassroots coalition advocating for active management on federally-owned forest lands. For more info visit www.healthyforests.org. DISASTER PREPAREDNESS - Continued from page 23 • Write a plan for responding to emergencies. This may include the following: • Have a system for warning employees about emergencies and communicating with employees and local emergency management officials • Consider the special needs of employees • Plan evacuation routes • Provisions and location for employees to shelter-in-place • Develop a business continuity plan • Identify assets most critical to the business • Develop different procedures needed for different departments • Identify essential and non-essential employees • Consider cross-training advantages • Establish procedures with suppliers and customers critical to daily operations, and • Create a plan for conducting business offsite if the plant is inaccessible Most small to medium size lumber manufacturing firms have some level of disaster preparedness – such as installing a sprinkler system in the plant or having one person trained in basic first aid. Sufficient in the past was the placement of the hand-written account books in the company safe overnight and having a few band aids in a cupboard. Tape and disc storage soon followed, often taken home at night. Now firms use offsite servers and/or cloud storage to secure their critical documents and records. As management, consider these questions in regard to your business: Can you virtualize your entire IT structure off-site? Can the disaster recovery solution be centrally managed? Do you have a dependable solution that automatically backs up the most recent files? Does the provider’s solution offer a simple, reliable program to protect the client’s business information and eliminate IT downtime? Is their solution built on reliable hardware and software? What if the provider suffers a disaster? In closing, some lumber companies may have intelligently put into effect comprehensive plans, designed and structured by key employees and regularly updated and tested for efficacy. Company leadership should poll its key personnel regarding the extent of their disaster preparedness/disaster recovery viability and pose the same questions to their log suppliers, lumber purchasers and IT vendors. If your business stays up to date with trends and makes sure customer satisfaction is extremely high, it has a good chance to survive and prosper. The list of things for a company to do to prepare can seem overwhelming. The right advisor can lead clients through the process, offering disaster preparedness/ disaster recovery and disruption adjustment consulting services as a valuable and necessary component of ongoing operational success. Disaster preparedness/recovery and disruption adjustment within your business should follow immediately behind positive cash flow and profitability. (Editor’s Note: Tom Teague spent a significant portion of his professional career in the lumber industry, first as president of Hub Lumber Co. in Roseburg, OR, and then as president of West Coast Hardwoods Co., of Florence, OR. From 2004-2015 he led Teague Designs LLC, of Portland, OR. He has offered lumber manufacturing clients viability analysis and turnarounds in addition to currently assisting clients with disaster preparedness/recovery. He can be contacted at teaguedesigns@comcast.net.) n softwoodbuyer.com WHERE THE LUMBER INDUSTRY GROWS NEVER WORRY ABOUT LEAD GENERATION AGAIN With a searchable database of over 22,000 lumber companies, finding your next trading partner is fast and simple. Lumber Blue Book is your go-to resource for profitable leads. GET PREDICTIVE CREDIT SCORES Ever wish you could predict the likelihood of negative credit events like defaults and delinquent payments? Fueled by over billion of industryspecific Accounts Receivable data each year, Blue Book Scores deliver just that. Learn more at lumberbluebook.com or call us at 630-668-3500. Softwood Forest Products Buyer n January/February 2019 Page 51
