From: on behalf of Panel Registry Subject: FW: TNG registration of ...

file:///C|/Documents%20and%20Settings/mckeagep/My%20Documents/Prosperity/Hearings/hearing%20registry/apr%2019/TNG%20submission.htm 

<strong>From</strong>: on behalf of Panel Registry 

Subject: FW: TNG registration of presenters for the topic specific hearings April 26-May 3rd. 

Attachments: McCrory CV Apri l2010.pdf; Prosperity Project - Written Submission for Kevin Morin 

April 16 2010.pdf; McCrory Submission Prosperity Panel 16Apr2010.pdf; Hartman Fish Habitat 

Compensation Project review-final 4.16.2010.pdf; Select DFO Documents from TNG Access to 

Information Act Request.PDF; TNG Community_Based Impacts Submission P Larcombe 4.16.2010. 

pdf; TNG Presenters List for Technical Sessions April 16 2010 (2).pdf 

<strong>From</strong>: Amy Crook [mailto:trailhead@telus.net] 

Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 4:55 PM 

To: Prosperity Review [CEAA] 

Cc: Jay Nelson; Sean Nixon; Marilyn Baptiste; Roger William; Percy Guichon; Bernie Elkins; 

loretta_william@xenigwetin.com; Joe Alphonse; Crystal Verhaeghe; Matthias Starzner; Patt Larcombe 

Subject: TNG registration of presenters for the topic specific hearings April 26-May 3rd. 

Colette, please find attached, on behalf of TNG, the list of presenters and supporting information for the 

topic specific hearings in Williams Lake from April 26-May 3 rd . 

I will be sending two emails because the attachments are so large. Please confirm that you have received 

these emails with the attachments (as itemized in CSP2’s letter to you). Thanks. 

Amy Crook 

Centre for Science in Public Participation 

2543 Wesley Place 

Victoria, BC V8T 1V1 

acrook@csp2.org 

250 721-3627 

file:///C|/Documents%20and%20Settings/mckeagep/My%20Do...rings/hearing%20registry/apr%2019/TNG%20submission.htm [4/19/2010 12:47:16 PM]

CENTRE for SCIENCE in PUBLIC PARTICIPATION 

Amy Crook, 2543 Wesley Place, Victoria, British Columbia Canada V8T 1V1 

Phone/Fax: (250) 721-3627 web: www.csp2.org / e-mail: acrook@csp2.org 

“Technical Support for Grassroots Public Interest Groups” 

April 16, 2010 

Panel Manager 

Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency 

160 Elgin St. Ottawa ON K1A 0H3 

prosperity.review@ceaa-acee.gc.ca 

Dear Colette, 

Re: Technical presentations on behalf of TNG for specific topic panel hearings 

CSP 

Colette Spagnuolo 

On behalf of the Tsilhqot’in National Government, we are submitting the following list of presenters for 

the topic specific panel hearings in Williams Lake. We have included the presenters name, affiliation, 

their preferred date(s) for presenting and a summary of their presentation along with supporting 

references. 

Several of our presenters have very limited time availability and have requested as much specificity as 

possible for when they will present. We have no funding to retain them for additional time if the hearing 

schedules change during the week. We’d appreciate your accommodation of our requests to the 

maximum extent possible and we acknowledge your difficult challenge of coordinating the panel 

hearings. 

The TNG will have a technical team present for the duration of the technical sessions, and would 

appreciate having a table and microphone set up in the hearing room where we can work and have the 

necessary documents readily available. We anticipate the size of our group to average 4 people 

throughout the week. Please confirm if this possible. 

This letter includes the following: 

Attachment A An outline of the topics Dr. Kevin Morin will present 

Attachment B A summary of Stratus Consulting’s presentation and references 

Attachment C Information on the Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance (UFFCA) and 

contact information for Chief Thomas Alexis 

Attachment D Dr. Gordon Hartman’s CV 

Stand alone PDF files attached to this letter include: 

1) Dr. Gordon Hartman’s review of the fish compensation plan 

2) Dr. Patt Larcombe’s summary of the impacts to Tsilhqot’in current use and cultural values from 

the proposed project 

3) Mr. Wayne McCrory’s CV 

4) Mr. Wayne McCrory’s summary of terrestrial ecosystem impacts from the proposed project 

5) Xeni Gwet’in’s community based climate change adaptation plan 

6) Select documents from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans regarding the proposed project, 

released to TNG under the Access to Information Act. 

2

SESSION-SPECIFIC COMMENTS & REQUESTS 

1. Water Quality and Quantity 

Our presentation of concerns with the water quality and quantity impact assessment is complex and 

multi-faceted. We urge the panel to give adequate time for this issue to be fully discussed. We will have 

several experts presenting at the hearings, at significant expense. 

Our water quality experts are available only on April 26 th and 27 th . We do not have the funding, 

nor do they have the time to extend their presence in Williams Lake later than 5 pm Tuesday April 27 th . 

Thus, we request the water quality and quantity issues be heard starting Monday morning, April 26 th 

through Tuesday afternoon, April 27 th . 

Dr. Kevin Morin, P.Geo., L.Hydrogeo. Minesite Drainage Assessment Group 

Dr. Morin will present a summary of his findings on the adequacy of Taseko’s estimation of acid rock 

drainage and metal leaching. His presentation will address the material submitted by the proponent to 

date. An outline of the topics Dr. Morin will present is appended to this letter as Attachment A. Dr. 

Morin’s presentation will take about 1.5 hours. 

Dr. Ann Maest, Dr. Cameron Wobus, Dr. Josh Lipton, Dr. Jeff Morris, Mr. James Holmes, and Ms. 

Constance Travers, Stratus Consulting Inc. 

The Stratus Consulting group will assess Taseko’s information presented to date including: contaminant 

sources, geochemical testing, geochemical modeling, mine site water balance and hydrogeology, tailings 

storage facility seepage estimation, accuracy of water quality impact prediction at Prosperity mine and 

case studies from other mines, and prediction of toxic effects on salmonid fisheries. A summary of 

Stratus Consulting’s presentation and key references are appended to this letter as Attachment B. We 

will need teleconference capability for this presentation. Stratus Consulting’s presentation will take 

about 2 hours. 

2. Fishery stocks, habitat and fish compensation plan 

Chief Thomas Alexis from the Tl'azt'en Nation 

Chief Alexis will be addressing the panel on behalf of the Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance 

(UFFCA) on the importance of the Chilco Salmon runs to First Nations as a traditional and cultural food 

source. Information on UFFCA and contact information for Chief Alexis is appended to this letter as 

Attachment C. Chief Thomas’s presentation is expected to take ½ hour. 

Tsilhqot’in fishery experts and Dr. Jeff Morris, Stratus Consulting 

These presenters will focus on the importance of the salmon fishery within traditional Tsilhqot’in 

territory. The experts will build upon the fish toxicology presentation of Dr. Morris and present 

information about potential project impacts on salmon within the Taseko River and by extension the 

Chilcotin River watershed. This presentation is expected to take ½ an hour. 

Dr. Gordon Hartman 

Dr. Hartman will present his review of the fish compensation plan. Dr. Hartman’s CV is appended to 

this letter as Attachment D. Dr. Hartman’s written submission are attached as a stand-alone PDF file 

2

with this letter. Dr. Hartman is only available to attend the hearings for one day and has requested 

the chance to speak between 11 am and 3 pm on Wednesday, April 28 th . Dr. Hartman’s presentation 

will take about 1 hour. 

3. Terrestrial Ecosystem 

Wayne McCrory RPBio. of McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. 

Mr. McCrory will present his review of the wildlife impact assessment information presented to date by 

the proponent. Mr. McCrory’s CV, written submission and reference material are attached as separate 

PDF files to this letter. Mr. McCrory will refer to the Xeni Gwet’in Community Based Climate Change 

Adaptation Plan (attached as a stand along PDF file with this letter) in his presentation. Mr. McCrory’s 

presentation will take about an hour and he prefers to present on April 29 th -30 th . 

4. Socioeconomic Issues 

Ms. Patt Larcombe, Symbion Consultants 

Ms. Larcombe’s presentation to the Panel will entail: (1) summarizing the evidence provided by 

Tsilhqot’in members during the Community Hearings on current use and cultural values; and (2) 

conclusions regarding social, economic, cultural and health impacts, including Project impacts on 

current use based upon community evidence and professional opinion. Ms. Larcombe did not have an 

opportunity to deliver her presentation on community-based impacts associated with mining projects at 

the Xeni Gwet’in hearing due to time constraints and therefore, she is submitting that presentation to the 

Panel in writing at this time (stand alone PDF file attached to this letter). Ms. Larcombe will require 

about one hour for her presentation. Ms. Larcombe must make her presentation some time on 

Thursday, April 29 th as she must leave Williams Lake by noon on Friday, April 30 th to return home for 

scheduled surgery on the morning of May 1 st . 

Please confirm the requested time slots for presenters as soon as possible so that we can make the 

necessary arrangements. Thank you for your consideration of our submission. Please contact me with 

any questions. 

Sincerely, 

 

Amy Crook 

BC Program Director 

3

Attachment A 

Written Submission for Kevin Morin 

In 2009, Dr. Kevin Morin presented comments on the Prosperity EIS/A. Taseko Mines Limited 

responded to his comments under the provincial and federal reviews. Dr. Morin will review his 

comments and Taseko’s responses to them. His presentation will address some or all of the topics set out 

below. 

REVIEW OF ML-ARD AND MINESITE WATER CHEMISTRY IN THE EIS/A 

1 PAG vs. Non-PAG Materials at the Prosperity Project 

2 Professional Certification 

3 Mine Plan 

4 Rock and Overburden 

5 ML-ARD Predictions 

5.1 Number of ABA samples 

5.2 Kinetic Tests 

5.3 Unavailable NP 

5.4 Criteria for Differentiating "PAG" and "non-PAG" Rock 

5.5 Lag Time for PAG Material to Become Acidic 

5.6 Effect of Waste Rock Misclassification 

5.7 Equilibrium Levels in Aqueous Concentrations 

6 Tailings 

7 Dissolved vs. Total Aqueous Concentrations 

8 Nitrogen Species from Explosives Used During Mining 

9 Expected Exceedances of Water-Quality Guidelines 

10 Prosperity Lake and Beece Creek 

WATER MOVEMENT IN THE EIS/A 

1 Draft Reports and Third-Party Liability 


3 Perpetually Submerged PAG Rock in the TSF 

REVIEW OF SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTS FROM TASEKO MINES LIMITED, RELATED TO 

ML-ARD, DRAINAGE CHEMISTRY, AND WATER MOVEMENT 

1 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel 

Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement, Information Requests from the Federal 

Review Panel, 1.0 Alternatives Assessment, I.R 1.1 Tailings and Waste Rock Storage Area 


Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement. Information Requests from the Federal 

Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.1 Long Term Treatment of Pit Lake Water Quality 

4



Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.2 Effects of the Low Grade Ore Stockpile on Water Quality 



Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.3 Stratification of Pit Lake 

5 Thompson, C., and T. Crozier. 2009. Documentation Error in June 30, 2008 DRAFT Numerical 

Hydrogeologic Analysis Report. BGC Engineering Inc., BGC Project Memorandum PG09-02, to Taseko 

Mines Limited, dated June 12, 2009 



Review Panel, 3.0 Hydrology, I.R 3.1 Site Water Balance for Prosperity Lake and Tailings Storage 

Facility 


Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement, Information Requests from the Federal 

Review Panel, 3.0 Hydrology, I.R 3.2 Effects of Project on Beece Creek 

5

Attachment B 

Written Submission for Stratus Consulting 

6

Attachment C 

Information on UFFCA and Chief Thomas Alexis contact information 

Chief Thomas Alexis contact information: 

Email- chief@tlazten.bc.ca 

Cell- 250 996-1493 

The Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance promotes accountability in the conservation, 

protection, and sustainable harvest of UFFCA fish populations, as well as the health of the ecosystems 

upon which they depend. The UFFCA provides information regarding the state of the UFFCA Fish 

stocks and fisheries habitat. 

The UFFCA promotes and encourages: 

• Inclusive and transparent decision making regarding fisheries issues in the UFFCA area. 

• Stewardship of fisheries resources and sustainable harvesting practice 

• Sustainability in fisheries management and practices, 

• Cultural values associated with ancient practices 

The UFFCA provides advice and support services to UFFCA member communities on a range of 

issues from conservation and harvest planning and fisheries management, to environmental 

assessments and field science. The Alliance’s role is to support community based initiatives which 

support the overall strategic plan. The Alliance also assists with procuring resources for science and 

research while developing a continuous program of capacity development. The Alliance was created 

by 2005 under the Federal Department of Fisheries, Aboriginal Aquatic Resource & Oceans 

Management (AAROM) program. 

The key roles of the UFFCA are: 

• Provide technical analysis and advice on stock conservation including the identification of stocks 

in need of conservation actions. 

• Review federal; (and to a lesser degree) provincial fisheries programs, stock and habitat 

assessments, enhancement initiatives, and government policies and practices related to 

conservation of UFFCA stocks of interest. 

• Respect and honor the role of Aboriginal Traditional Knowledge (ATK) and its role in informing 

and furthering science. 

7

Education 

Attachment D 

Dr. Gordon Hartman’s CV and written submission 

Gordon F. Hartman, Ph.D. 

Brief C.V. 

B.A., M.A., and Ph.D., 1954, 1956, and 1964 respectively from the University of British 

Columbia. One year doctoral program study at the Zoological Institute, Stockholm, Sweden. 

Experience 

Total of 57 years. Includes nine years in fisheries work concurrent with expanding my education, 

18 years in research, five years+ in university teaching, eight years in management, and 12 years with 

consulting, writing, and three years international work in Africa. Totals do not add up completely 

because some experience times overlap. 

Publications 

About 95 altogether. Some are un-refereed , and some are popular outlet papers. Recently, 

several publications deal with macro-ecology. Co-author/editor with Dr. T. Northcote on a 789 page 

book on forestry-fisheries interactions – world-wide coverage. 

Environmental Assessments 

It may be relevant to add that I have been involved in assessing effects of hydro-electric projects 

(Kemano Completion, Revelstoke Dam, and the Oldman River Dam). I did a review of the Viphya Pulpmill 

Project in Malawi. In 1999 I did a preliminary review of the proposed Prosperity Gold-Copper mine 

at Fish Lake. Other projects include assessment of three different stream restoration projects in Alberta 

and B.C. These latter projects were done in collaboration with a professional geomorphologist. 

8

Attachment A-Written Submission for Kevin Morin 

In 2009, Dr. Kevin Morin presented comments on the Prosperity EIS/A. Taseko Mines Limited 

then responded to his comments under the provincial and federal reviews. Dr. Morin will review 

his comments and Taseko’s responses to them. His presentation will follow the Table of 

Contents as listed below. 

REVIEW OF ML-ARD AND MINESITE WATER CHEMISTRY IN THE EIS/A 

1 PAG vs. Non-PAG Materials at the Prosperity Project 


3 Mine Plan 

4 Rock and Overburden 

5 ML-ARD Predictions 

5.1 Number of ABA samples 

5.2 Kinetic Tests 

5.3 Unavailable NP 

5.4 Criteria for Differentiating "PAG" and "non-PAG" Rock 

5.5 Lag Time for PAG Material to Become Acidic 

5.6 Effect of Waste Rock Misclassification 

5.7 Equilibrium Levels in Aqueous Concentrations 

6 Tailings 

7 Dissolved vs. Total Aqueous Concentrations 

8 Nitrogen Species from Explosives Used During Mining 

9 Expected Exceedances of Water-Quality Guidelines 

10 Prosperity Lake and Beece Creek 

WATER MOVEMENT IN THE EIS/A 

1 Draft Reports and Third-Party Liability 


3 Perpetually Submerged PAG Rock in the TSF 

REVIEW OF SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTS FROM TASEKO MINES LIMITED, 

RELATED TO ML-ARD, DRAINAGE CHEMISTRY, AND WATER MOVEMENT 

1 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review 

Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement, Information Requests from 

the Federal Review Panel, 1.0 Alternatives Assessment, I.R 1.1 Tailings and Waste Rock Storage 

Area 


Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement. Information Requests from 

the Federal Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.1 Long Term Treatment of Pit Lake Water 

Quality



the Federal Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.2 Effects of the Low Grade Ore Stockpile on 

Water Quality 



the Federal Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.3 Stratification of Pit Lake 

5 Thompson, C., and T. Crozier. 2009. Documentation Error in June 30, 2008 DRAFT 

Numerical Hydrogeologic Analysis Report. BGC Engineering Inc., BGC Project Memorandum 

PG09-02, to Taseko Mines Limited, dated June 12, 2009 



the Federal Review Panel, 3.0 Hydrology, I.R 3.1 Site Water Balance for Prosperity Lake and 

Tailings Storage Facility 


Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement, Information Requests from 

the Federal Review Panel, 3.0 Hydrology, I.R 3.2 Effects of Project on Beece Creek

1 

Taseko Mines Ltd., Prosperity Gold-Copper 

Project – Fisheries and Environmental Issues 

Introduction 

G.F. Hartman, Ph.D. 

April 2010 

The Tsilhqot’in People have requested the author to provide 

comments on the Prosperity Gold-Copper Project which Taseko 

Mines is proposing to develop in the Fish Creek watershed which is 

located about 125 km southwest of Williams Lake, B.C. This paper 

focuses on fisheries and related environmental issues, and 

considers, particularly the habitat compensation aspects of the 

Taseko Mines proposal. 

The author inspected the project area on September 22, 1999 

while working on a contract for the Canada Department of Fisheries 

and Oceans (DFO). The author and Mr. M. Miles, P. Geo., were 

retained earlier by DFO to review the success of various mining 

related habitat projects which attempted to provide compensatory 

habitat for rainbow trout. The results of this investigation were 

published in the report Assessment of techniques for Rainbow trout 

Planting and Habitat Management in British Columbia, Prepared for 

the Department Fisheries and Oceans; G.F. Hartman and M. Miles 

(1999), 73 pages + Appendices. This report did not include the 

Taseko Mines proposal, but contained findings relevant to the 

concerns that I have about the compensation aspects of the 

proposal. 

The principal objective of this report is to review fisheries 

related sections of documents on the Taseko Mines proposal for the 

project. These documents include: Volume 5, Biotic Environment, 

and Volume 3, Section 8, Fisheries Compensation Plan, both are 

parts of the Environmental Impact Statement/Application, Taseko 

Mines Limited, Prosperity Gold-Copper Project (March 2009) ; The 

Panel Review Under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, 

Application for the Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project, submitted 

by Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, March 12, 2010, and Review of the

Prosperity Mine Aquatic Impact Assessment prepared for 

MiningWatch Canada by Dr. David Levy, (2009). This report concurs 

with the evaluations of the Taseko Mines proposal that were made 

by Dr. Levy (Mining Watch), and the DFO. 

After reviewing relevant sections of these documents I have 

concluded that if the mine is developed as indicated in the project 

documents, the project will have profound and detrimental effect of 

the Fish Lake/Little Fish Lake ecological system. Water movement 

and flow direction would be drastically altered, the two lakes would 

be eliminated, and the land around the site of Fish Lake would be 

altered by mining facilities infrastructure. 

Substantive biological issues include; near total disruption of 

the aquatic environment, detrimental effects on fish production and 

sustainability. These impacts interface negatively with historically 

based use by indigenous people, current recreational potential, and 

esthetic qualities. All are important. In my view, the Taseko Mines 

proposal for compensations comes nowhere near making up for 

ecosystem loss and disruption that it would be caused if the mine is 

developed as planned. 

The Mine Plan – Ecosystem Changes 

The mine plan includes five important elements of watershed 

change as part of its development and operation. The changes are: 

2 

• Change in direction and location of water movement and 

flow by construction of a 10.8 km Headwater Channel (HC) 

to the east of the present NW flowing Fish Creek system, 

• Creation of a Headwater Channel Retention Pond (HCRP) for 

storage of collected water, 

• Creation of an engineered spawning and rearing channel 

between the HCRP and a newly created ‘lake’ (Prosperity 

Lake), 

• Creation of, Prosperity Lake, south of a 1.6 km. dyke that 

serves to contain the south end of the Tailings Storage 

Facility (TSF) “Lake”, and

3 

• The diversion of outflow from Prosperity Lake to Wasp Lake 

and thence to Beece Creek. Part of this route appears to be 

through wooded terrain (Google Imagery). 

Following closure of the mining operation, the plan includes 

redirection of the water that enters Prosperity Lake through the TSF, 

down over or around the dyke at its north end. Such flow is 

proposed to be used to fill the mine pit. After about 27 years, when 

the pit is full, the water will flow through it and down into the 

original Fish Creek Outlet, thence to the Taseko River. 

Water that flowed southward from Prosperity Lake-Wasp Lake 

to Beece Creek will no longer run through that route. 

Risks and Challenges in Making a Multiple Component, Multiple 

Stage Mitigation System Work 

The following sections examine Taseko Mines’ multicomponent 

fish production compensation system. A fraction of 

other less complex compensation projects have functioned 

successfully over the time periods for which they were evaluated. 

Some have failed, and others have required maintenance over time. 

However, whatever is built to replace Fish Lake, Little Fish Lake, and 

the aquatic/terrestrial system of which they are a part, must 

function successfully and indefinitely into the future as an 

integrated system. 

There are fisheries ecological components, funding 

components, and government elements to such sustained 

maintenance. The issue of long term mining company support may 

be more problematic. 

The Headwater Channel 

The 10.8 km Headwater Channel, lying to the east of Fish Lake 

and Little Fish Lake, is the key component in the supply of water for 

compensation facilities. If the mitigation/compensation system is to 

be successful, the HC has to function to: 

• Collect water but, as proposed, not to lose it beyond about 

15%,

4 

• Remain stable and capable of conveying peak flows, during 

its indefinitely long life, and 

• Provide water of appropriate thermal character for trout. 

The documents prepared do not, in my opinion, provide 

adequate explanation of the design that will allow the channel to 

collect ground water while preventing entrained water from leaving 

it. The project documents indicate that the channel may be lined in 

some sections to make it impervious. If this is the case, how might 

sub-surface water enter such a structure? 

The channel is proposed to be one meter across the bottom 

with sloping sides 1:1.5, with a cross-sectional area of about 2.6 

square meters. It is stated that it will withstand 1:100 year floods. 

However, adequate information on flood return times is not given in 

the Fisheries Compensation Plan. The plan indicates that the average 

flow, during May, through the HC at the 4, 5, 6, and 7 km locations, 

will be 0.330, 0.413, 0.459, and 0.578 cubic meters per second 

respectively. These data are not accompanied by information on 

flow extremes. What are the potential flow levels and water 

velocities in, for example, 10, 50, 100, and year return period 

events? In my opinion there is risk and uncertainty in this part of the 

plan. 

The information on the thermal characteristics of water flowing 

north to south through the HC, and thus exposed to radiant energy 

at the peak of day, is inadequate. The length is 10.8 km., flow 

volumes are relatively low in the north end of the channel, and the 

banks are open along its length. Notwithstanding the fact that main 

flows occur in May, there is potential for water warming along the 

channel. Water temperature questions in regard to the HC are 

important, because warming effects in the channel will be additive 

to those in the HCRP. 

The Headwater Channel Retention Pond 

The 26.1 ha HCRP is intended to store water, which will 

be released into the spawning and rearing channel during the spring 

and summer incubation and early rearing period. The maximum 

depth of the pond is to be 5 m. The morphometric data for the

HCRP are not given. However, the bottom will slope upward, toward 

the east, from the three-section containment dyke. Will soil 

bioengineering or other measures be used to control erosion by 

wind and waves around the HCRP? 

The HCRP is to be filled each spring, by the end of May or 

early June (Fig. 8-8, Section 8, Compensation Plan), and gradually 

emptied, starting in April (the start date in April not given, but 

outflow and inflow will overlap for part of April and all of May), 

proceeding through the summer months, and ramping down to nil 

by September 15. During the latter part of this storage and release 

period, i.e. July 1 to September 15, the water in the HCRP will be 

particularly vulnerable to excess warming. 

The documents reviewed do not provide adequate information 

on and analysis of the thermal characteristics of the water to be 

released from the HCRP. This information will be particularly 

important during the latter part of the spawning and rearing period. 

5 

Spawning and Rearing Channel 

The compensation plan does not indicate what the water 

temperatures will be in the spawning and rearing channel during the 

period, late July to September. During this period, water already 

warm from its time in the HCRP, will warm further during its 

movement through the riffles and alcoves in the spawning/rearing 

channel. The project documents do not present data on temperature 

patterns, that will occur during the operation of the channel. This 

does not allow full evaluation of temperature effects on fish in the 

channel. This is another area of unknowns and potential risk. 

The matter that is important, in considering the former three 

interdependent components, is that each and all must function in 

order that the compensation system works. The quality of function 

and the likelihood of failure is an artifact of the complexity of the 

system. It will be a challenge to achieve success. Where the 

environmental issues are important, and where there is serious 

public concern about a project, compensation must be more than

something that is proposed and ‘put out there’ to be ‘fixed’ later if 

it does not work. The public deserves better. 

6 

Prosperity Lake - Shoreline Erosion 

Beyond consideration of the three above compensation 

elements, the newly formed lake must provide productive and 

sediment free habitat for the trout fry that enter it. 

The compensation plan does not address the question of 

shoreline erosion and sediment suspension, caused by wind and 

wave action, during the first few years following the lake filling. 

This matter may be relevant because of the potential distribution of 

young trout in Prosperity Lake. Young trout upon entering Loon 

Lake (near Clinton B.C.) tended to remain near shore, following their 

entry, during the late summer. 

Will the near shore littoral zone be free from suspended 

sediment during windy conditions, and will the lake bottom in this 

zone be stable and free enough of moving sediment to provide food 

and/or permit feeding among young trout? These questions are not 

discussed in the compensation plan. 

Providing for No Net Loss 

If we move past the above four parts of the water provision 

system, in which the potentials for risk or failure are additive, there 

is then serious doubt that the compensation program could provide 

‘like for like’ particularly at the commonly prescribed ratio of 2:1 for 

compensatory area to lost habitat area. 

Lake Replacement 

The Environmental Impact Statement, Summary section, Fish 

and Fish Habitat, page 1-4, states that “The Compensation Plan has 

been designed to go beyond the replacement of surface area of lost 

habitat and address some of the regional MOE priorities … etc.” 

Information in the “Compensation Plan’ itself does not indicate that 

such will happen.

Prosperity Lake at 113 ha does not have a larger surface area 

than Fish and Little Fish lakes combined, 111 plus 6.6 ha. While the 

difference in the two totals is not great in itself, it is simply 

inappropriate to ignore one of the two lakes destroyed while making 

comparisons. It may be even more inappropriate to state that the 

113 ha lake would “go beyond the replacement of surface area of 

lost habitat.” 

A second consideration, in the comparison of lake habitat 

created, is the character of the habitat. One such lake characteristic 

is littoral area. It is a critically important aspect of a lake’s 

productivity and capacity to support fish. The combined littoral 

areas of Fish and Little Fish lakes are 90.1 ha. The littoral area of 

Prosperity Lake, if built, will be 49 ha. (Table 8-2, Fisheries 

Compensation Plan). This does not “go beyond….” 

A third lake feature that is important in consideration of lake 

productivity is shoreline perimeter in relation to surface area – edge 

effect. Prosperity Lake and Fish Lake have almost the same in 

surface area, 113 to 111 ha respectively. The perimeter of Fish Lake 

is 11,756 m vs. 7886 for Prosperity Lake (page 8-20, Section 8, 

Fisheries Compensation Plan). 

7 

Stream Replacement 

The amount of replacement stream does not make up for the 

amount of natural stream lost either in terms of length or functional 

character. The mine and tailings facilities, if built, will destroy 

approximately 2.5 km of outlet stream and 4 km of inlet stream, the 

latter in two tributaries. The analysis by DFO stated that a total 

wetted fish bearing area of 64,087 sq. m., which shrinks to 34,746 

sq. m. during low water, would be impacted along with the 

ephemeral stream habitat below the barrier in the outlet of Fish 

Lake. 

The destruction of the Fish Lake outlet stream constitutes both 

spawning and rearing habitat loss, involving rearing habitat which 

supports fish up to >1 year of age. The two inlet streams support 

spawning and early rearing. A portion of the inlet habitat supports 

fish rearing to ages greater than one year. Stream channel area lost 

is located primarily in meadow or wetland habitat. Such habitat, with

adjacent meadow or lowland areas around it, is buffered against 

dewatering and warming. Reproduction within three separate 

components of a lake-stream system offers biological insurance 

because if one tributary undergoes natural impairment, the others 

will sustain reproduction. 

The single 2.2 km inlet channel proposed does not replace the 

three lost streams in terms of area, habitat function, duration of 

function, or certainty of function. The inlet channel, if built, would 

be a 2.2 km long. It is planned to function from April16 to 

September 15, with the last 15 days including “ramping down” 

flows. 

Such temporally limited, spatially unequal, and functionally 

limited channel habitat does not compensate, ‘like for like’, for the 

loss of natural stream habitat in any sense whatever. 

8 

Numbers of Fish ‘Replaced’ 

The compensation project, if implemented, does not replace 

fish in the numbers that would be lost. Fish Lake is ‘considered’ to 

be capable of supporting 85,000 trout composed of a mix of age 

classes. The outlet stream is ‘estimated’ to produce 8,000 one year 

old trout (page 8-9, section 8.3.2.3, Fisheries Compensation Plan). 

In its fish number discussion the compensation plan, according to 

DFO, does not consider the 80,000 trout associated with the 

tributaries and Little Fish Lake. 

The replacement channel would support 50 pairs of spawners 

that would produce 1,500 eggs per female for a total of 75,000 

eggs. The Prosperity Lake inlet stream is planned to support 30,000 

fry until the end of September. If all such fry were to survive each 

consecutive year for three years, there would be 90,000 trout 

ranging from < 1 year to

development. It would, indeed, be a ‘pale shadow’ of such 

production. 

Mine Closure 

The system will not be able to return to pre-development 

conditions at mine closure. The outlet flow through Wasp Lake will 

be redirected from Prosperity Lake northward through the tailing 

impoundment and downward around the high wall at the north end 

of the impoundment. 

The north flowing water will not join the remnant flow of Fish 

Creek toward the Taseko River for approximately 27 years, the time 

it will take to fill the abandoned mine pit. <strong>From</strong> the perspective of 

trout production Fish Creek outlet will not become a biologically 

connected part of Prosperity Lake and tailings impoundment system. 

Once the mine is closed, and the pit is filled with water, additional 

flow back into the outlet stream will contribute little to 

compensation. The remaining out let stream, above the barrier, 

would no longer a part of any lake system. Such additional flow 

would be expected to improve fish habitat below the Fish Creek 

outlet barrier. 

I do not have enough information about the situation after the 

mining operation is terminated and the pit is filled to be able to 

discuss the all-important issues of maintaining the 10.8 km 

diversion channel and the spawning and rearing channel. Further to 

that, I am not able to consider the issue of sustained operation of 

the HCRP outlet flows to it. Who will do it? How long? Who will pay? 

Commitments made now by the mining company would have 

to be set out firmly with financial backing (performance bond?) so 

that the public is not left with a lake unequal to the ones it lost, and 

with management costs and responsibilities. At closure time, the 

government fisheries agency could be already be overloaded. 

This last set of comments go beyond fish biology, however, 

they reflect on some of the history of the mining industry and its 

legacy of abandoned mines about the province. 

9

Concluding Comments 

The proposed compensation system is to be composed of a 

headwater collection channel, a headwater channel retention pond, a 

seasonal spawning and rearing channel, and an artificial lake. These 

constitute a complex of functionally interconnected components all 

of which must work each year. All must be able to accommodate 

hydraulic and hydrologic conditions. They must also provide 

appropriate thermal conditions. These needs must be met in order 

that the mitigation/compensation requirements are met. This 

complex system must work in perpetuity. 

The proposed spawning/rearing channel and Prosperity Lake 

do not come near to making up for the loss of Fish Lake, Little Fish 

Lake and the outlet and two inlet streams that would be destroyed 

by the mine. 

We have been able to construct components of fish habitat 

with some degree of success. However, we may be guilty of hubris if 

we believe that we can re-construct functional biological systems as 

they exist as parts of natural geomorphological and hydrological 

elements of the landscape. 

For many people, trout fishing in B.C. goes beyond the 

experience of simply going out in a boat and catching fish. An 

important part of the fishing experience, for such people, involves 

being in an attractive natural environment. An artificial lake, with 

either a 1.6 km dyke for a north shore, or such a lake with an 

extension into a tailings pond, does not meet such requirements. It 

most certainly does not fulfill the experience expectations of native 

people, who have fishing, hunting and deeper connections with Fish 

Lake. These are based on long term use and connection to the land. 

10

Summary of Mining Related 

Community-Based Impacts 

Submitted to the Prosperity CEAA Panel 

By: P. Larcombe, Symbion Consultants 

for Tsilhqot’in National Government 

April, 2010

The following briefing on mine-related community 

impacts is based upon: 

� Literature Review, including materials on: 

- Impact predictions in other mine project 

environmental assessments; 

- Presentations and public hearing evidence on mining 

projects by other First Nations & Aboriginal groups; 

- Post project monitoring reports; 

- Professional and academic literature. 

� Personal knowledge and experience in working with 

communities who have faced large natural resources 

development projects in their territories.

Impact of 12-hour shift & extended rotation schedule 

(e.g. 14 days on/14 days off) on mine workers 

• Fatigue from lack of sleep between shifts or rotations (especially alternating 

rotations of day and night shifts) creates risk for worker safety [1] [2]; 

• Worker efforts to meet family and community responsibilities during their ‘offshift’, 

exacerbates fatigue conditions [2]; 

• Significant daily travel to/from work substantially erodes ‘off-work’ time, 

contributing to fatigue [2]; 

• Long-term exposure to shift-work linked to health impacts, with higher rates of: 

- gastrointestinal disorders (e.g. peptic ulcers, heartburn, nausea); 

- cardiovascular disease (e.g. heart disease, high blood pressure); 

- stress disorders (e.g. anxiety, depression). 

• Workers with pre-existing physical or mental health conditions and/or with 

substance abuse addictions are most at risk [29]. 

See Citation List at end of presentation. Numbers identified in [ ] correspond to document #i n Citation List. Note [PK] refers to 

personal knowledge of writer.

Impact of Shift/Rotation Schedule on Families 

• Heightened levels of stress & disruption for the partners & 

families [1] [6] [35]; 

• Women and children bear the brunt of mine-related work 

impacts on family. Increased incidence of domestic violence, 

substance abuse and family disruption are reported [4][8] 

[24] [5] [18] [30] [32] [33]; 

• The 2 week on/2 week off rotation is really a 3 on/1 off 

schedule as mine workers spend the first week at home 

catching up on sleep [11].


Absence of mine workers; 

• increases responsibilities of spouses/partners in all aspects of family 

life resulting in stress related health issues [5] [32]. 

E.g. Labrador women with partners working 12-hour shifts (particularly 

night shift) report: mental health depression, loneliness, separation/ 

divorce, parenting conflicts, child care issues, spouse partying on days 

off, difficulty with scheduling family time [31]; 

• is difficult for children [5]. 

E.g. BHP Ekati diamond mine survey of families with mine workers 

found that 49.5% reported impacts on children between the ages of 0- 

4 [5]. 

E.g. School staff in community of Rae Edzo in NWT report an increase 

in student behaviour problems of children from families involved in 

mine employment [12] [24];


• Workers whose families & partners are not coping well with shift 

schedule most likely to suffer from fatigue-related problem at work [1]; 

• Families & relationships already under stress extremely vulnerable to 

the added stress of mine-related shift/rotation schedules [5] [32]; 

• Time away from family is one of the major reasons that workers quit 

mining jobs [3]; 

• Worker satisfaction with shift schedule is highest when it allows 

sufficient time to spend with family, friends and community [1];

Link Between Mine Employment and Substance Abuse 

• Wages paid by mining companies, higher participation rates in the cash 

economy, and/or shift/rotation schedule can create or exacerbate existing 

social problems such as alcohol and substance abuse [11] [10] [14] [15] [5] 

[24] [32] [33] [35]; 

• Substance abuse effects immediate family, extended family, friends, and 

community at large, i.e. martial discord, domestic violence, child neglect, 

accidents, overdoses, suicide, financial problems, increased crime rates [5] 

[10] [14]; 

• Evidence of bootlegging and underground drug trade has been associated 

with mining developments [33] [PK re Innu and Voisey's Bay]; 

• Substance abuse by mine workers can result in job loss, leading to 

additional family stresses (loss of income, inability to finance accumulated 

debt, low self-esteem on the part of the worker and family members, 

leading to more cycles of substance abuse, domestic violence, etc.) [10]

Boom/Bust Cycle of Mining Industry 

• Temporary and pre-mature mine closures described as a 

‘feast and famine’ cycle where families experience periods of 

income and incur debt and then face stress due to job loss and 

debt load [9] [18]; 

• Cycle causes de-stabilization of families and the community 

at large, and is particularly hard on women and children [9] 

[18]; 

• Results in higher rates of health issues (substance abuse, 

depression, family violence) and increased demand on health 

service providers [5].

Money Management Impacts 

• Identified as a likely impact in all of the environmental assessments 

done for diamond mines in the NWT; northern Ontario (Victor diamond 

mine) and Labrador (Voisey's Bay nickel mine); 

• Increased wage income can lead to excessive consumerism and 

increased debt load [31]. 

• Increased wage income has been linked to gambling addictions which 

creates family stress and often the addiction lasts even after the mine 

closes or the worker stops working at the mine [5]; 

• Workers who finance large purchases have difficulty making payments 

when mines temporarily close down or prematurely shuts down [18].

Social Change in Cohesion of Community 

• Even with ‘fly in/fly out’ mine operations, de facto mining 

towns still exist at departure points, bringing in ‘outsiders’ to 

the community [5] [15]; 

• Influx of ‘outsiders’ to a community disrupts the dynamics of 

close knit community’s, upsetting the socio-cultural and 

economic equilibrium that has developed over centuries [16]; 

• Health Canada reports that social changes associated with 

development can create uncertainties within communities, 

leading to a loss of control and deterioration of quality of life 

and overall health of the community [16];


• Presumption that jobs and increased income translate into 

‘better communities’ is not always the case as often it changes 

the social and cultural character of the community [17] [30]; 

• Mining can divide a community and create long term conflict 

between those (individuals, families and businesses) who 

benefit and those who do not benefit or are negatively 

impacted from mine development and/or mine-related 

employment [11]


• Stratifies the community into the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ [5] [11] 

[30] [32]; 

• Social division between mining and non-mining families [4]. 

• Individuals who lack skills or are unable to obtain mine-related 

employment often suffer from feelings of marginalization or simply 

‘not belonging’ [16] 

• Elders, traditional land users, women, and others who cannot or do 

not wish to participate in mining related activities are not only left 

behind, but also have to contend with impacts resulting from 

shift/rotation schedules [32];

Impacts on Culture 

• Higher wage income can result in reduced need/time for 

traditional lifestyle activities and greater reliance on store bought 

goods [15] [16] [26] [27] [34]. For example, 71% of Lutsel k’e 

families with at least one member working in the mining industry 

reported spending less time on the land [24]; 

• Reduction in traditional lifestyle activities often felt most by 

youth, women and elders who have fewer opportunities to share in 

land-based activities if main family harvester is engaged in minerelated 

work [PK];

Impacts on Culture 

• Consequences of a decrease in harvesting activities and/or 

country food consumption can include physical health impacts 

(diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure and heart disease) and 

mental health impacts (violence, substance abuse, suicide) [16] 

[34]; 

• Mining can introduce new lifestyles and consumption patterns 

that can disrupt community life and lead to a breakdown of 

traditional lifestyle and values [15] [34]; 

• Traditional economy promotes and rewards sharing, whereas 

wage economy promotes individualism [5] [24] [34];

Impacts on Community Resources 

Human, infrastructure and financial resources of community’s 

can become taxed due to a combination of: 

• permanent and transient population increase; 

• increased needs/requirements of existing population.


• Employment and business opportunities have resulted in 

former community members returning to their First Nation 

home base, resulting in increased demand for governance, 

health, counselling, etc. services from already scarce resources 

[25]. 

• These individuals do not always get jobs or keep jobs, and 

some stay in the community drawing upon scarce transfer 

payment assistance funds [PK];


• The prospect of Impact Benefit Agreement monies has drawn 

some First Nation members back to their home communities, 

again resulting in increased demand for services from what are 

often already over-taxed resources [PK]; 

• In northern Manitoba, the prospect of sharing in hydroelectric 

development mitigation and compensation opportunities 

resulted in a large number of disenfranchised members seeking 

reinstatement of Treaty status under Bill C-31 and demanding a 

share of project benefits [PK].


Increased Burden on Resources from Existing Population: 

• Increased individual and family stress, substance abuse, 

depression, etc. associated with mine-related work places greater 

demands on community services [35]; 

• Higher paying mine jobs draw community members with the 

highest levels of education and experience away from critical jobs 

in the community resulting in a social capital deficit of expertise 

available to the community [5] [16] [24];


Increased Burden on Resources from Existing Population: 

• Best and brightest, who are relied upon for advice and input in 

community events, land claims negotiations, and regular meetings, 

often cannot participate due to mine employment [24]; 

• Where communities already have scarce resources (human and 

financial) for governance, large mining projects tax the leadership 

and staff, often diverting attention from equally important issues 

of the community [11].

On the Positive Side on Things… 

• Jobs and business opportunities can: 

• help re-build individual, family and community esteem 

that has suffered from past experiences such as residential 

schools, previous development impacts, colonization, etc. 

[5] [10]; 

• attract growth and investment in the community; 

• increase disposable income resulting in higher rates of 

expenditure within the community if such opportunities 

exist; 

• reduce outward migration (particularly youth).

On the Positive Side on Things… 

• Project-related training can enhance skill sets that may be 

transferable to other jobs or businesses in the future; 

• Increases in disposable income can promote purchase of 

capital equipment and increase financial resources available for 

land-based activities [PK] [24]; 

• Increases in wage economy can promote sharing through 

purchase and lending of harvesting equipment [5];

LITERATURE CITED 

1 Heiler, K., Pickersgill, R. and Briggs, C. 2000. Working time arrangements in the Australian mining industry Trends and implications with 

particular reference to occupational health and safety. International Labour Office, Geneva. 

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/dialogue/sector/papers/austrmin/index.htm#_Toc496054137. 

2 Government of Western Australia. 2000. Fatigue Management for the Western Australian Mining Industry Guideline. Department of Industry 

and Resources and Mines Occupational Safety and Health Advisory Board. State of Western Australia, November, 2000. 

http://www.docep.wa.gov.au/ResourcesSafety/Sections/Mining_Safety/pdf_/MS%20GMP/Guidelines/MS_GMP_Guide_FatigueManagement.p 

df . 

3 Barker, T. and D. Brereton. 2005. Survey of local Aboriginal people formerly employed at Century mine: Identifying factors that contribute to 

voluntary turnover. Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, Research Paper No. 4. University of Queensland, Australia, July 2005. 

4 Brereton, D., Forbes, P. 2004. Monitoring the Impact of Mining on Local Communities: A Hunter Valley Case Study. Centre for Social 

Responsibility in Mining, University of Queensland. Paper presented to Minerals Council of Australia Inaugural Sustainable Development 

Conference, Melbourne, October 2004. 

5 Gibson, G. and J. Klinck. Canada’s Resilient North: The Impact of Mining on Aboriginal Communities. Pimatisiwin: A Journal of Aboriginal 

and Indigenous Community Health 3(1). 

6 International Labour Office Geneva. 2002. The evolution of employment, working time and training in the mining industry, Report for 

discussion at the Tripartite Meeting on the Evolution of Employment, Working Time and Training in the Mining Industry. International Labour 

Organization, Sectoral Activities Programme. Geneva, October 2002. 

7 Ritter, A.R.M. 2001. Canada: <strong>From</strong> Fly-In, Fly-Out to Mining Metropolis. Chapter 6 in Large Mines and the Community, Socioeconomic and 

Environmental Effects in Latin America, Canada, and Spain (eds. Gary McMahon and Felix Rem). IDRC/World Bank 2001. 

http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-28032-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html. 

8 Strongman, J. Eftimie, A. and Hancock, Dr. G. 2004. Women in Energy and Mining, Voices for Change A Vision for a Better Future. World 

Bank Papua New Guinea NG Department of Mining World Bank Energy Week, March 2004. 

9 Gaining Ground: Women, Mining and the Environment, Workshop held at Lake Laberge, Yukon Territory, September 17, 2000. 

www.yukonconservation.org/library/pdf/gain.pdf . 

10. Brockman, A. and M. Argue. 1995. Review of NWT Diamonds Project Environmental Impact Statement: Socio-Economic Impacts on 

Women. Submitted by The Status of Women Council to BHP Diamond Mine Environmental Assessment Panel. October 23, 1995.

11 Innu Nation/MiningWatch Canada. 1999. Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Aboriginal Communities and Mining. Workshop Summary, 

September 10-12, 1999, Ottawa. http://www.miningwatch.ca/index.php?/Canada_en/Rock_hard_place. 

12 Government Northwest Territories. 2005. Socio-Economic Impacts in the Communities of: Łutselk’e, Rae Edzo, Rae Lakes, Wha Ti, 

Wekweti, Detah, Ndilo, and Yellowknife 2004 Annual Report of the Government of the Northwest Territories under the BHP Billiton and 

Diavik Socio-Economic Agreements. Health and Social Services; Education; Culture and Employment Industry; Tourism and Investment; 

Justice; NWT Bureau of Statistics; NWT Housing Corporation. 

13 Marlowe, E., Enzoe, D., Parlee, B. and Ellis, S. 2003. Community Based Monitoring, Final Report. Prepared by Wildlife, Lands and 

Environment Department Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation for The West Kitikmeot Slave Study Society. 

14 Hobart, C.W. 1984. The Impact of Resource Development on the Health of Native People in the Northwest Territories. Department of 

Sociology, University of Alberta. The Canadian Journal of Native Studies, IV, 2 (1984): 257-278. 

15 Lapalme, Lise-Aurore, Natural Resources Canada, Mineral and Metal Policy Branch. 2003. The Social Dimension of Sustainable 

Development and the Mining Industry, A Backgrounder. Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada. 

16 Buell, Mark. 2006. Resource Extraction Development and Well-Being in the North, A Scan of the Unique Challenges of Development in 

Inuit Communities. Ajunnginiq Centre, National Aboriginal Health Organization. 

17 Duhaime, G. et al. Economic Systems., 2004. Chapter 4 In: Arctic Human Development Report. Stefansson Arctic Institute, under the 

auspices of the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council 2002-2004. 

18 Yukon Status of Women Council. 2000. Gain Ground: Women, Mining and the Environment. Results of a Workshop held September 17, 

2000, at Lake Laberge, Yukon. www.yukonconservation.org/library/pdf/gain.pdf. 

19 Kwiatkowski, R.E. and M. Ooi. 2003. Integrated Environmental Impact Assessment: A Canadian Example. Bulletin of the World Health 

Organization, v. 81. n.6 Genebra. 

20 Handy, E.R. 2005. Diamond in the Rough, an interview with Ph.D. candidate Ginger Gibson. Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining 

Engineering, University of British Columbia. 

21 Collins, B. 2000. Kakadu Region Social Impact Study Community Report. Report on initiatives from the Kakadu Region community and 

government, on the implementation of the Kakadu Region Social Impact Study, November 1998 – November 2000, Darwin, Australia. 

22 Adger, W.N. 2000. Social and Ecological Resilience: Are They Related?. Progress in Human Geography 24, 3 (2000) pp. 347-364.

23 Story, K. and L.C. Hamilton. 2003. Planning for the Impacts of Megaprojects: Two North American Examples. In: R.O. Rasmussen and 

N.E. Koroleva (eds.) Social and Environmental Impacts in the North, 281-302, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands. 

24 North Slave Metis Alliance. 2001. Can’t Live Without Work-Environmental, Social, Economic and Cultural Concerns: A Companion to the 

Comprehensive Study Report on the Diavik Diamonds Project. 

25 The Supervising Scientist. 1997. Kakadu Region Social Impact Study: Report of the Aboriginal Project Committee. A Study Jointly Funded by 

the Commonwealth and Territory Governments, the Northern Land Council, and Energy Resources Australia. Commonwealth of Australia. 

26 Conference Board of Canada. 2001. An Examination of the Nunavut Economy. Ottawa. 

27 Hobart, Charles. “Inuit Employment at the Nanisivik Mine on Baffin Island.” Inuit Studies,Vol. 6, No. 1. (1982). 

28 Hild, C.M. and V. Stordahl. Human Health and Well-Being. Artic Human Development Report. 

29 Queensland Government. 2001. Guidance Note for Management of Safety and Health Risks associated with Hours of Work Arrangements at 

Mining Operations. Natural Resources and Mines. 

30 International Council on Mining and Metals. 2006. Community Development Tool Kit. Prepared in association with the World Bank and 

Energy Sector Management Assistance Program as part of the Pioneering New Approaches in Support of Sustainable Development in the 

Extractive Sector program. 

31 The Labrador West Status of Women Council and the Femmes Francophones de l’Ouest du Labrador. 2004. Effects of Mining on Women’s 

Health in Labrador West, Final Report. In collaboration with MiningWatch Canada, the Steelworkers Humanity Fund, with assistance from 

the Lupina Foundation. 

32 MacKenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board. June 28, 2006. Reasons for Decision and Report of Environmental Assessment 

for the DeBeers Gahcho Kué Diamond Mine, Kennady Lake, NT. 

33 Lutsel K’e First Nation. 2006. “What We Heard” - Community Scoping Workshop for the Gahcho Kué Environmental Assessment in Lutsel 

K’e, April 19, 2006. Presentation to the MacKenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board on April 28, 2006. 

34 FMA Heritage Resources Consultants Inc. 2006. Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Land Use Report, Joslyn North Mine Project. 

Prepared for Deer Creek Energy Limited. 

35 Voisey's Bay Mine and Mill Environmental Assessment Panel Report. 1999. http://www.ceaacee.gc.ca/010/0001/0001/0011/0002/contents_e.htm. 

36 Victor Diamond Project, Final Comprehensive Study Report. 

37 MacKenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board. 2003. Report of Environmental Assessment and Reasons for Decision on the De Beers 

Canada Mining Inc. Snap Lake Diamond Project. July 24, 2003.

Colette Spagnuolo, Panel Manager 

160 Elgin Street, 

Ottawa, ON 

K1A OH3 

McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. 

Box 479, New Denver, British Columbia V0G 1S0 

Phone: 250-358-7796; e-mail: mccrorywildlife@netidea.com 

April 16, 2010 

Re: Technical Review of EIS on Proposed Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine: "Terrestrial Ecosystems" 

Dear Ms Spagnuolo: 

Please find attached my technical review. As some information was not available for my review, please 

be advised that I will be making some revisions to this document prior to the end-April submission in 

Williams Lake. 

Sincerely, 

Wayne P. McCrory, RPBio. 

Cc.

AN INDEPENDENT REVIEW OF THE TERRESTRIAL WILDLIFE IMPACTS 

OF THE PROPOSED PROSPERITY MINE 

April 16, 2010 Draft 

Wayne P. McCrory, RPBio 

McCrory Wildlife Services 

Box 479, New Denver, 

British Columbia, 

V0G 1S0 

Phone (250) 358-7796 

email:mccrorywildife@netidea.com 

mccrorywildlife@netidea.com

2 

REVIEW OF TASEKO’S PROPOSED OPEN PIT MINE AND ITS CUMULATIVE 

IMPACTS TO GRIZZLY BEARS, OTHER WILDLIFE AND WILD HORSES & 

ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY OF PROTECTED AREAS 

[Note: This draft review is being submitted to the panel on April 16 with the 

understanding that it will be up-graded and revised prior to delivery of the final 

document at the hearings in late April. For example, research on road mortalities 

and mine effects on grizzly bears (in the U.S.) were incomplete on April 16. Wayne 

McCrory, RPBio. An more complete Executive Summary will also be provided in 

the final document]. 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

My review, using extensive local knowledge and research on wildlife habitats and 30 years of 

grizzly bear/wildlife expertise combined with a conservation biology and cumulative effects 

review, concludes that the Taseko EIS for the proposed Prosperity Mine significantly undervalues 

the environmental impacts of the mine development on grizzly bears and other wildlife. The West 

Chilcotin grizzly population is the largest residual dryland population left in Coastal Mountain 

foothills the North America and is a salmon bear that also feeds on whitebark pine nuts and wild 

potatoes. A recent conservation study recommends a recovery plan. The population is considered 

threatened by the province and is down to about 100 animals and therefore cannot sustain further 

habitat losses or increases in human-induced mortality. A projected net loss of quality habitat 

areas resulting from global warming exacerbates the stress this relic grizzly population is now 

under. 

With respect to the proposed mine development, any new impact represents a cumulative effect 

on grizzly bears, and will result from a combination of: 

� Direct losses of quality habitats from the mine development (and further exploration), 

� Displacement of warier grizzly bears from quality habitats and movement corridors in an 

associated broader Zone of Influence along the 50 km road corridor and mine site, 

� Direct mortality of grizzly bears from the mine transportation corridor and mine site, 

including subdominant bears that will habituate to these areas, 

� Displacement from quality habitats and movement corridors and associated illegal 

mortality resulting from an expanded motorized recreational backcountry use created by 

access improvements from the mine development including the transmission line corridor 

and the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area. 

Most mitigation measures identified by the Taseko EIS will not be effective in reducing impacts. 

The mine development will cause this vulnerable and threatened West Chilcotin grizzly bear 

population to pass the ecological threshold for extinction. 

Other impacts will include increased mortality to wild horses, mule deer and other wildlife along 

the proposed mine transportation corridor. Additionally the impacts of the mine will reduce the 

ability of adjacent protection areas to support viable populations of wide-ranging species.

I. GENERAL APPROACH & OVERVIEW BY McCRORY WILDLIFE SERVICES 

REVIEW OF TASEKO’s PROPOSED PROJECT 

3 

This review focuses on grizzly bear and the potential impacts to grizzly bear populations from the 

proposed Prosperity mine project. I use a conservation biology approach that looks at the issue 

from a cumulative effects viewpoint, which considers all direct and indirect influences on the 

bears in the Taseko region. By its nature, this is a cumulative effects assessment since the 

regional bear population has undergone, and is continuing to undergo, numerous adverse effects 

from a variety of natural and manmade disturbances and encroachments into the region. The 

proposed transportation corridor and mine will simply be one more additive effect in an otherwise 

compromised and shrinking viable habitat base for Chilcotin grizzly. 

The grizzly bear is a good indicator species. Paquet (pers. comm.) analyzed niche overlap for 410 

terrestrial vertebrates in the Central Canadian Rockies and found that by protecting the habitat 

needs of the grizzly bear, Canada lynx and grey wolf, additional species (98%) would also be 

protected. This means that if effective protective measures and good management are undertaken 

for this one species alone, almost all other wildlife populations in the same area are automatically 

taken care of. On the converse, whatever happens to grizzly habitat will almost assuredly affect 

in a negative way the majority of the other wildlife populations’ habitat. This makes the grizzly 

tremendously useful to the Panel’s understanding of wildlife habitat impacts from the Prosperity 

project. 

The grizzly bear is one of North America’s slowest reproducing mammals (a mother grizzly 

might contribute 4 -5 offspring to the population if she lives long enough). This feature has made 

it vulnerable to population declines and extirpation, such as in the region 30 km or so to the north 

of the proposed Taseko Mine. 

The grizzly bear in the West Chilcotin, estimated by the Wildlife Branch to be down to 104 

individuals (Hamilton 2008), is provincially listed as “threatened”. This is loosely defined as the 

population estimate is being less than 50% of the area’s habitat capability, the number of animals 

that could be supported under optimal conditions (Austin et al. 2004). Recent DNA studies 

detected 119 grizzlies in the combined Tatlayoko and upper Chilko River sections of Xeni 

Gwet’in Caretaker Area, suggest that the numbers of grizzly bears in the XGCA may be in better 

shape than expected (Mueller 2008). However, this may provide an artificial window on the 

overall status of the population since some of the grizzly bears are being drawn to salmon from a 

very large area including Gold Bridge to the south of the Taseko. 

Although this population of dryland grizzlies is no longer hunted, unreported kills from defenseof-life, 

conflicts at native salmon harvest sites, rancher-grizzly conflicts, conflicts with mining 

exploration camps, hunter-grizzly conflicts and road mortalities are on-going threats to this 

vulnerable population. In recent years, there have been two reported kills for cattle predation and 

two unreported kills related to conflicts with people, including a female with young. Grizzly bears 

generally cannot sustain mortality higher than 4%, if recovery is desired (Horejsi 1999). Even the 

loss of one breeding-age female can have serious consequences to maintaining a viable 

population. A recent mortality study (McLellan et al. 1999) found that in a hunted population, for 

every bear killed legally there is about one killed illegally. Studies using radio-collared grizzlies

have demonstrated that female grizzly bears comprise a large proportion of the unreported 

mortality in BC. 

4 

Despite the historic decline in Chilcotin grizzly populations, a recent conservation study showed 

that an area of viable grizzly habitat larger than Yellowstone Park still exists along the west side 

of the coast ranges, foothills and partially onto the Chilcotin Plateau, from the head of the Taseko 

River to Tweedsmuir Park, and that some 49% of this was already protected (Craighead and 

McCrory 2010). This study recommended that a grizzly bear recovery plan be implemented for 

this area by the province, and that more habitats be protected. 

The study also showed that the West Chilcotin grizzly bear is the last viable population of 

grizzlies left in the dryland-grassland ecotype along the eastern fringes of North America’s 

Coastal Ranges and Cascade Mountains. This is a grizzly that feeds on salmon, but unlike its 

cousins in the coastal rainforests, also feeds on whitebark pine nuts, and digs for wild potatoes 

and bears-claw. This grassland grizzly ecotype is totally extinct along the lee of the coastal 

mountains in the U.S., is down to tiny numbers in the U.S. – B.C. North Cascades (where 

recovery programs are being looked at), and occurs in very low numbers in the Lillooet area 

south of the headwaters of the Taseko River. 

The mine transportation corridor will also cross some 50 km of that plateau bordering the large 

Xeni Gwet’in aboriginal preserve that extends to the east side of the Taseko. Despite 

fragmentation from clearcut logging, this area still has all Chilcotin wildlife including grizzly 

bears, wolves, and 100-200 wild horses. The horses were in the Chilcotin region before 

Europeans, indicating Spanish origin (we are now doing DNA tests on this in the Brittany 

Triangle). The horses are considered an alternate prey species for grizzly bears, wolves, mountain 

lions and other predators (McCrory 2002). Not only is the plateau east of the Taseko a major 

movement corridor for mule deer, it is a broad travel region for all wildlife including grizzly 

bears that would move from the east to access salmon along the Taseko and Chilko Rivers and 

Ellkin Creek. The road corridor is not only a communal First Nations harvest area for mule deer 

and moose, but an excellent wildlife and wild horse viewing area. It is periodically used for film 

documentaries of wild horses. 

The proposed Taseko mine site and much of the proposed industrial transportation corridor 

actually lie within the eastern boundaries of a very large protected area: the Xeni Gwet’in’s 

aboriginal/wild horse preserve (1989 Xeni Gwet’in Nendduwh Jid Guzit’in and 2002 ?Elegesi 

Qiyus Wild Horse Preserve) totalling some 777,290 ha. To the east and southeast, and proximal 

to the proposed mine, lie two important provincially protected areas, Big Creek Park and Spruce 

Lake Protected Area, totalling some 137,329 ha. Just like Canada’s system of national parks, 

these aboriginal and provincial protected areas (including four provincial protected areas that lie 

within the boundaries to the Xeni Gwet’in preserves) were created through intensive land-use 

planning processes, with the intention of being lasting legacies for society by preserving 

biodiversity and high value core grizzly bear habitats and other wildlife. 

How will the proposed Taseko Mine affect the currently precarious survival of the West Chilcotin 

grizzly bear, wild horses and other wildlife? And how will the mine development affect the 

ecological integrity and biological functioning of Chilcotin protected areas that have been 

meticulously set aside by society to preserve species and biodiversity?

A. REVIEW OF PROPOSED TASEKO LAKE/WHITEWATER INDUSTRIAL 

TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR 

i. Background information from Taseko EIS documents 

Taseko EIS: “there is no significant effect on Grizzly Bear.” 

5 

Taseko: “During the Project’s construction phase, Project traffic consists of transporting material 

and persons to the construction site. There are no large units that will require special traffic 

management other than pilot car for wide loads. The composition of the traffic is about 60% 

trucks/trucks and 40% light vehicles. The largest increment to traffic is Year 1 of operations, which 

overlaps with construction, with an annual average daily traffic of about 250 vehicles. After that, the 

Project adds on average about 100 vehicle trips per day (i.e., 50 vehicles making round trip). 

Concentrate trucks would make about 15 trips per day on average over the mine life. When the mine 

closes, the traffic volume drops to a negligible value.” 

Taseko: 

Table 3-15, p. 3-38 of Vol 6 (social) Current Traffic and Project-Related Traffic Volumes (round 

trips per day) 

current traffic construction operations closure post- 

closure 

AADT Yr-1AADT typical year Yr 20, Vehicles 

AADT per wk 

4500 Haul Road 5< 48 100 46 2 

Taseko Lake/Whitewater roads 50 48 100 46 2 

Hwy 20 Rural (Lee’s Corner to Wms Lk) 1,600 to 1,800 48 100 46 2 

Hwy 20 (Williams Lake to Hwy 97) About 16,000 48 100 46 2 

Hwy 97 (Wms Lk to Macalister load-out 

Note: * indicates will be upgraded 

2,900 - 32 

Source: Taseko Mines, see Table 3-36 for annual values 

[For discussion purposed, I have converted round trips per day to vehicles per day (vpd) by 

multiplying by two. W. McCrory]. 

ii. McCrory Wildlife Sevices - ecological/wildlife-social context of the industrial 

transportation corridor area 

� The proposed mine transportation corridor will use the Taseko/Whitewater road from 

Hanceville to the junction of this road and what is called the “4500” road. Apparently the 

road south of Stone will be up-graded to avoid going through the village and adjacent 

ranch lands. The 4500 road will be up-graded for the approximately 5 km to Fish Lake. 

This total length of this main transportation corridor from Stone to Fish Lake appears to 

be about 50 km. 

� Near the south end and junction with the “4500” road the Taseko/Whitewater road enters 

the Elegesi Qiyus (Nemiah) Wild Horse Preserve (2002), marked by a large sign. This is 

also the 1989 Xeni Gwet’in Nendduwh Jid Guzit’in Aboriginal Preserve. They cover the

6 

same area (Map x) and were established by aboriginal decree by the Xeni Gwet’in and 

they are approximately the same size as Banff National Park. This section of the 

Taseko/Whitewater road, the 4500 road and the proposed mine are all in this Preserve 

area. 

� The road crosses a largely lodgepole pine-meadow-wetland plateau that is somewhat 

fragmented and roaded from recent clearcut logging and a few old ranch roads. However, 

it appears to still inhabited by all of the West Chilcotin wildlife species including bluelisted 

grizzly bears and wolverine; although some negative effects are likely occurring. 

Some blue-listed sharptailed grouse likely occur as we have been recording small 

numbers in the Brittany Triangle (McCrory 2005 and unpubl. field notes). 

� Currently and until the habitats in large Brittany fire zones (2003 and 2009) in the 

aboriginal/wild horse preserve recover, wild horses and wildlife such as grizzly bears, 

lynx and wolves displaced by these large wildfires appear to have influxed into outlying 

habitats including areas along the Taseko/Whitewater Road. For example, in the fall of 

2003 what appeared to be several new herds of wild horses were observed moving into 

the Km 23 area of the Taseko/Whitewater road as a result of displacement from the fire 

(Wild horse ranger, Harry Setah pers. comm.). Our studies of the 2003 Brittany Fire 

(McCrory 2005 and recent unpublished field surveys) indicate that while some animals 

such as wild horses have generally recovered, slow food resource recovery for some 

species (e.g. willows for moose, soapberry for bears, slow come-back of snow-shoe hares 

for lynx, etc.) may mean another decade or so before capacity is recovered. The 2009 fire 

was even larger and crossed the east side of the Taseko to near the Taseko/Whitewater 

road. If wildlife and wild horses are here in greater numbers because of this fire 

displacement effect, then this has implications for increased direct and indirect effects of 

the mine transportation road including road kills. 

� Many wildlife populations still apparently cross the existing road safely to utilize habitats 

that exist on the east and west side of the road. This is particularly true of the 100 – 200 

wild horses, but also moose, bears and other species. Productive wetlands and grasslands 

on both sides of the current road access biological hotspots and all are necessary for some 

of these animals to continue to survive over the long-term. 

� The proposed mine transportation corridor for all of its 50 km length intersects a major 

migration corridor and spring-fall resident habitat for large numbers of mule deer that 

primarily winter eastward along the Fraser River. 

� The road corridor also intersects what appears to be a wide dispersal corridor for grizzly 

bears traveling from the more dryland areas east to access major salmon runs along the 

Taseko and Chilko Rivers. In one case a grizzly bear was known to travel from 113 km 

from Gold Bridge (in the south) to access the spawning salmon food resource in the 

Chilko (Mueller 2008). Meuller felt that grizzly bears in the region have much larger 

home ranges than in most other reported grizzly studies. We have observed grizzly bears 

utilizing pine forests north of the Chilko River, towards Alexis Creek. 

� The general Whitewater/Taseko road and associated sub-roads are a communal hunting 

area of considerable importance for First Nations harvest of mule deer and moose. 

� Wildlife viewing values are fairly high compared to other roads in the Cariboo. Wild 

horse viewing and photography are some of the best in the province. The area is

occasionally used for wild horse documentary filming (e.g. Discovery: Wild 

Horses/Unconquered People). 

7 

� I consider the wildlife and wild horse populations in this area to be highly vulnerable to 

mortality and displacement from a high volume industrial transportation corridor such as 

that proposed by Taseko Mines. 

iii. Current status of the Whitewater/Taseko access road 

The road currently is a “bush road” with often little traffic, even in the summer, and travel is 

slow. I could not locate any records of traffic volumes and road kills. In my last 10 years of doing 

research in the area I have never seen a road kill, although recently a horse was reported hit and I 

have seen a wolf and a wild horse that were indiscriminately shot with ¼ km of the road. The 

current rough state of the road provides a natural type of speed control that limits collisions with 

wildlife and wild horses. My Xeni Gwet’in Access Management Plan (McCrory 2005) concluded 

that: “current levels of access roads, such as in the Nemiah Valley, north end of Chilko Lake, 

Tsuniah Road, and Taseko Lake are likely not having any significant impacts on grizzly bears, 

although some habitats near these roads might not be used by grizzly bears at certain times of the 

year”. 

iv. Projected impacts: Traffic volume increases and road improvements from proposed 

mine transportation corridor 

Traffic volumes are one way to measure the effects of roadways on grizzly bears including road 

kill levels and habitat displacement (Dr. L. Craighead pers. comm., Horejsi 1999). 

Taseko’s traffic estimates pre-mine traffic volumes for the Taseko Lake/Whitewater roads to be 

an annual average of 100 vehicles per day (vpd), with no apparent supporting evidence, such as 

traffic counts. Taseko’s data indicated that the mine operation would triple the estimated traffic 

use of the Taseko/Whitewater road from 100 vpd to 300 vpd. The majority of Taseko’s use will 

be trucks, including 15 concentrate trucks per day. In Year 1 when construction overlaps with 

operation the total vpd will be 350. These figures do not account for the increased 

public/recreational use of the road that will occur as a result of road improvement 

Taseko’s EIS appears to provide very little information about the degree of upgrade or widening 

the Whitewater Road from its current ‘bush’ condition to industrial and safer standards. One can 

assume however that significant improvements will be made to facilitate the projected high 

increase in mine traffic. This will also increase significantly the speed at which vehicles will be 

able to travel. This factor alone has serious implications for wildlife and wild horse road kills (I 

will further attempt to obtain greater details before the final submission near the end of April). 

v. Effects of Taseko industrial transportation corridor on grizzly bears 

Various scientific studies demonstrate that roads can have significant behavioural and ecological 

consequences for grizzly bears, all of them negative (Horejsi 1994, 1999, 2000; Horejsi et. al. 

1998; Kasworm and Manley 1990). 

Warier bears will avoid even high quality habitats up to 3 km from a road (displacement). In one 

study in Montana, grizzly bears showed avoidance of roads at just 10 vpd, and at 60 vpd the road 

helped define the border between two female grizzly bear home ranges (Mace et al. 1996). In 

another case, a grizzly in Alaska restricted use to just 22% of its home range because of a road 

(Dau 1989).

8 

Roads also destroy habitat. As well, subdominant bears, especially females with young, will 

habituate to roadsides, and become susceptible to being killed from traffic collisions, illegal 

hunting and food/garbage related problems. All around, roads, especially those with higher 

speeds and higher traffic volumes, are extremely dangerous to bears and can become both an 

ecological dead zone for warier bears, even along salmon streams, or a death zone for bears that 

habituate to roads and traffic. 

What follows is a comparative analysis of the threatened West Chilcotin grizzly situation to a 

detailed conservation biology analysis of the endangered Granby-Gladstone grizzly bear 

population by Dr. Brian Horejsi (1999). The Granby grizzly is also a dryland type grizzly bear 

and with an estimated 50 animals. The West Chilcotin is only considered threatened and is 

estimated to comprise 104 animals. [For my finalized submission I will add further information 

on mine road EIA information and grizzly bears in the U.S. provided by Dr. L. Craighead]. 

a). Increased habitat displacement & fragmentation of grizzly bear home ranges 

A comparison shows that the proposed Taseko/Whitewater industrial corridor will have up to 

three times the vpd that the Monashee and southern transprovincial highways had back in 1989- 

1997 (89 – 97 vpd), traffic levels where Horejsi’s (1999) conservation analysis including GIS 

habitat and road density review concluded that these roads were already creating a barrier to 

grizzly bear movements between habitats fractured by the highways. In a Montana ecosystem 

somewhat similar to the West Chilcotin, grizzly bears showed strong avoidance of roads with 11- 

60 vpd (Mace et al. 1996). Roads can reduce the use of quality habitats within 1.6 km (Suring et 

al. 1998). Thus, although the existing Taseko/Whitewater road is likely experiencing some habitat 

avoidance by grizzly bears, a three-fold increase in traffic to industrial scale will have a much 

greater effect in my opinion. 

b). Grizzly bear road kills 

For this section I reviewed the maps in my possession of provincial reported “bear kills” from 

1990-1999 (BC Wildlife Branch-Research and Conservation Section). Unfortunately, it does not 

separate black bear and grizzly bear kills. The data actually represents about 20% of the bears 

actually killed. Data is lost due to bear remains being removed by predators, covered by snow, ice 

or vegetative debris, and data collection errors and omissions. There is no information for the 

Taseko/Whitewater road and the road between Williams Lake and Hanceville shows 3 bear road 

kills. This would actually equate to 15 and all assumed to be black bears since it is in the grizzly 

bear zone of extirpation. [April 16. We are attempting to get more information from the Wildlife 

Branch as to grizzly bear kills where highways cross through occupied grizzly habitat]. 

High volume transportation corridors in occupied grizzly habitat such as Banff Park can lead to 

high mortality rates for grizzly bears that jeopardize even populations in large protected areas (P. 

Paquet pers. comm.). Even with traffic volumes for two provincial highways crossing the 

Granby-Gladstone grizzly ecosystem at vpd levels 1/3 lower than the proposed Taseko mine road, 

Horejsi (1999) concluded that one traffic-related mortality of a female grizzly bear would 

jeopardize chances of recovery. According to Horejsi (1999): “understanding the impact of road 

access involves the recognition that the cumulative effects of incremental mortality and 

displacement events can quickly destabilize a bear population.” 

In my opinion, upgrading the Taseko-Whitewater “bush” road into an industrial corridor will 

cause serious road-related grizzly bear mortality and injuries for less warier bears over time that,

9 

with other direct and indirect mortalities caused by the mine, will push this threatened population 

below the threshold required to sustain recovery of the population. By this point the sliding to 

extirpation of this threatened and rare dryland grizzly population will be irreversible. The mine 

road will become an ecological death trap. 

The case study evidence clearly does not support Taseko’s conclusion that its industrial road will 

not have a significant effect on the Chilcotin grizzly bear population. Given that for most of its 

length the Taseko/Whitewater Road passes not only through occupied grizzly habitat but also 

what is likely a major travel corridor between dryland areas on the east and the Taseko salmon 

river and associated quality habitats on the west, the evidence from past studies is that 

fragmentation of habitat, blockage of movements of warier bears, and road kills will likely have 

very significant and quite possibly irreversible cumulative effects on this threatened grizzly 

population. 

c. Other species road kills 

I predict that other species will also be subject to significantly increased road mortality. Some of 

the more wide-ranging carnivores such as the blue-listed wolverine likely will not be able to 

sustain mortality levels threatened by this road. While some of the wild horse bands are 

somewhat habituated to the road, from what I have observed of some of the wilder horse bands, 

they often take a run at the road as a herd, whether a vehicle is coming or not. I have had them 

dash out of the pine forest en mass and barely avoided a major collision myself. I expect the mine 

road will lead to some quite awful collisions between wild horses. 

d). Comments on Taseko’s proposed road kill mitigation strategies 

Taseko commits to speed controls and a “Grizzly Bear Mortality Investigation Program” 

implemented under MOE and so on. These are simplistic and will be ineffective at preventing the 

impacts identified above. According to Horejsi (1999) administrative road restrictions such as 

signs, gates and regulations have little effect on controlling bear mortality, nor do they reduce the 

rate of habitat displacement (such as where secondary roads are gated to prevent motorized 

access). The fact that Taseko wants to have a grizzly bear mortality investigation program is an 

acknowledgement that some grizzly bears will die from their activities. They fail to acknowledge 

that for every grizzly bear reported as a road kill; there will be 5 more dead that went undetected. 

Nor has Taseko made any attempt to link road mortalities to the threat they pose to the threatened 

Chilcotin grizzly bear population. 

Taseko also relies for the mitigation of some wildlife impacts on government to implement 

certain programs or management activities. This is a huge mistake, for experience here shows all 

too clearly that provincial government commitments to wildlife management and protection are 

anything but reliable. Taseko has provided no data that support robust engagement of provincial 

(or federal) government agencies to effectively carry out wildlife mitigation measures from 

industrial projects anywhere in BC. Budgetary cutbacks, and relaxed attention to environmental 

issues, are inarguably real trends in government, as they have been for some years now. The 

panel should not conclude that reliance on provincial programs to implement impact mitigation 

measures are a real and viable solution, and if left to industry with no oversight, will likely not be 

effective in reducing wildlife impacts. 

As example in about 1975 I conducted an environmental impact assessment on waterfowl and 

furbearers for a consulting firm for the early stages of the Syncrude tarsands mine development. 

The property turned out to be on an important waterfowl migratory flyway, and had important

10 

wildlife values. The assessment identified important concerns and made recommendations for 

monitoring and mitigation. The results, emerging decades later, have not been promising, 

including high mortality rates for black bears. The following is from (Greenpages Canada 

http://thegreenpages.ca). In eight years (2000-2008), three companies working in the oilsands in 

northern Alberta (Syncrude, Albian Sands, and Suncor) reported a total of 164 NON-AVIAN 

animals killed as a result of their operations. Among the animals listed as killed were black bears 

(27), red foxes (31), coyotes (21), white-tailed/mule deer (67), and slightly lesser numbers of 

muskrat, beaver, red-backed vole, martens, weasels, moose, grey wolves, and little brown bats. 

All these are in addition to the "infamous dead ducks" incident that made the national news when 

over 1,600 migratory birds landed on a Syncrude oilsands tailings pond in April 2008, and all but 

a few died. Of the three operations, Syncrude was responsible for the majority of mortalities, 

including 43 deer, 20 red fox and eight black bears. Possible causes of mortality include 

euthanasia of problem wildlife, drowning or oiling from tailings, animals hitting infrastructure 

(e.g., buildings), or vehicles and electrocution. According to independent scientist Kevin 

Timoney the numbers of dead animals reported to government underestimated true mortality 

because they were derived from ad hoc reporting by companies rather than from a scientifically 

valid and statistically robust sampling design. 

As in British Columbia, the Alberta government has made significant cuts to its monitoring, 

enforcement, and reporting capacity 

B. REVIEW OF PROPOSED TRANSMISSION LINE-increased grizzly bear mortality 

The proposed transmission line corridor will also be a significant source of grizzly bear mortality 

and disturbance to habitat use. Although the route attempts to use existing roadways, it will 

establish an 80 km east-west linear corridor, having a near-continuous access road all the way 

from near the Fraser River to the Prosperity Mine site. The Taseko EIS underplays the impacts 

this will have on grizzly bears. 

Despite promises by Taseko to gate and control access, few proponents and no government 

agencies have ever done this effectively. There is no demonstrated correlation between access 

control and wildlife impact mitigation from industrial roads. Various studies and much local and 

professional experience shows this is not a viable mitigation approach, nor will it work to keep 

out unregulated motorized access by hunters and recreationists, using ATVs and snowmobiles. 

Again, as noted by Horejsi (1999) administrative road restrictions such as signs, gates and 

regulations have little impact on preventing human access and the resulting bear mortality. Nor 

do such measures reduce the rate of habitat displacement. 

As noted in my report on deactivation of fireguards from the Brittany 2003 fire, hunters and 

mushroom pickers built ATV access roads around all blockages (McCrory 2005). Illegal ATV 

access roads have also been built into Brittany Creek and portions of the upper Taseko for hunter 

access (McCrory 2009). At the Chilcotin-Fraser Junction protected area, BC Parks attempted to 

control access but both the gate and the fence were removed by unauthorized people in short 

order (Glen Davidsen pers. comm.). In a study I did for the Wildlife Branch of legally closed, 

signed and blocked/gated access roads in the B.. Pasayten and North Cascades, motorized hunting 

groups violated all access points. 

Thus, the consequences of improving access to build and maintain this lengthy linear corridor 

will be to lead to further displacement of grizzly bears and unreported mortality from 

uncontrolled motorized access. The will be additive to the both the reported and unreported

11 

grizzly bear mortality that I predict will be caused by the mine industrial access corridor and mine 

site itself. 

As an example of the danger of closed (gated) and open roads to threatened and endangered 

grizzly populations, a study in the endangered Selkirk grizzly ecosystem in Idaho showed this 

low population of approximately 50 grizzly bears suffered 18 deaths between 1982 and 1996, 11 

associated with open roads and 4 on closed (gated) roads (Wakkinen 1993, Wakkinen and 

Johnson 1997). 

C. REVIEW OF PROPOSED MINE SITE DEVELOPMENT AREA 

My review was constrained by what appeared to be a lack of information and map on Taseko’s 

mineral tenure area surrounding the proposed mine development area, as well as associated 

exploration roads and other activities. 

i. Habitat losses 

Again Taseko has concluded that this 8,000 ha? mine development will cause no significant 

impact on wildlife species (and Xeni Gwet’in plant gathering areas). They arrived at this 

conclusion partly through the utilization of an ecologically misleading formula that determined 

the relative size of each habitat type to be eliminated by the mine and them compared the loss to 

much larger areas. This is highly misleading since it does not take into account the differences in 

how wildlife species disproportionately utilize different seasonal habitats to a much higher degree 

than other ones. 

A prime example is how Taseko discounts the loss of 400 ha or so of wetlands/riparian areas. In 

Taseko (2009) under: Alpine and Parkland, Wetlands and Grasslands they state: 

“The changes in area of alpine and parkland, wetland and grassland ecosystems 

from baseline to maximum disturbance are presented in Table 15. No alpine or 

parkland ecosystems are affected by the Project. The loss of grassland 

ecosystems is small in both the Regional and Eastern Trapline Study Areas (

12 

another important grizzly bear spring/summer food. Two grizzly bear mark trees were 

documented, a good index of grizzly bear movements and feeding through the Fish Lake area. 

Therefore the loss of 400 ha of wetland habitat is far more significant to grizzly bears than just 

losing a small percentage out of the landscape, particularly as noted in my section on global 

warming, wetlands are expected to diminish significantly from droughts. The loss of wetland and 

other viable grizzly habitats, combined with loss of habitat use by warier bears within a 1-2 km 

zone of influence is additive to the cumulative habitat displacement losses and mortality I have 

identified from the other aspects of this mine development. 

This is not the only instance in which Taseko undervalued the actual habitat potential of the mine 

site area. One of the background reports (Madrone 1999) used to determine seasonal habitat 

values is out-dated, not validated by any field testing and relies too much on grizzly bear food 

habitat data from the Rockies, including a previous study I was involved in (McCrory and 

Herrero 1983). For another example, two key food sources for grizzlies in the Xeni Gwet’in 

Aboriginal/Wild Horse Preserve that are not mentioned in the Taseko grizzly report are whitebark 

pine nuts and salmon (Taseko River and some tributaries). 

We also suspect that grizzly bears may also feeding on spawning trout in the Tetzan Biny area, 

although this has not been studied. Feeding on spawning cutthroat trout is very important for 

grizzly bears in Yellowstone (L. Craighead pers. comm.). Although the Madrone report mentions 

over-wintered bearberries as a potential spring food, again this was not examined in the field (it is 

also an important late fall berry food for bears in the Chilcotin). In my assessment of bear scats 

(black and grizzly) in the Brittany Triangle (McCrory 2002) I found that bear scats from the 

spring were comprised of about 50% over-wintered bearberries and 50% grasses/sedges. Some of 

the discrepancies in the Madrone report and lack of sufficient ground-truthed habitat-dietary 

information for the West Chilcotin has contributed to some of the habitat values of the proposed 

mine site being under-valued in my opinion, including the proximity of the mine to the Taseko 

major grizzly bear salmon feeding areas. 

Regarding habitats in the mine development area, other specialized habitat besides wetlands, 

likely occur that represent critical food sources for grizzly bears. These include spring rainbow 

trout spawning areas and grasslands/wetlands with diggable soils for grizzlies to excavate root 

foods such wild potatoes, bear-claw and silverweed. The destruction of these, along with critical 

wetlands lost, could have a serious impact on grizzly bears that rely on this area when combined 

with other losses already identified. 

ii. Ecological Fracture Zone 

For warier bears, it is not just the loss of critical habitat from the mine site development, but 

displacement from the zone of influence that creates a further impairment to grizzly bear foraging 

strategies and movement, that when combined with the movement barrier created by the 

industrial road corridor, creates a significant fracture zone in a vulnerable grizzly bear ecosystem. 

For warier bears, the 50 km road and mine site represents a significant barrier for grizzly bears 

attempting to access their food resources within large home ranges. 

iii. Limitations of Taseko’s grizzly bear-people conflict management plan at the mine site 

While this has merit if implemented properly, given the scale of the development, because the site 

is in prime grizzly bear habitat and a broad movement corridor, some grizzly bears will habituate 

to people and the development. This will lead to bear-people conflicts, such as access to careless 

garbage containment or encounters with mine surveyors, with a high risk of problem bear

13 

mortality as a result. I predict that some grizzly bears will be killed during the construction phase 

and operation phase as a result of such habituation. 

D. CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF INCREASED MOTORIZED BACKCOUNTRY 

RECREATION IN GRIZZLY HABITAT RESULTING FROM IMPROVED PRIMARY 

ROAD IMPROVEMENT & LARGE INFLUX OF MINE WORKERS 

Another cumulative effect not identified by Taseko is the increase in backcountry motorized 

recreation (ATV’s, snowmobiles) that will spin off from improved primary road access and a 

large influx of mine workers and the effects this will have on grizzly bears and other wildlife. 

As identified in my Xeni Gwet’in Proposed Access Management Plan (McCrory 2005), prior to 

2003 mining and mining exploration activities in the upper Taseko watershed increased the 

amount of roads in the XGCA by 45% of all primitive roads and 24% of all roads, opening up a 

vast area of wilderness to motorized access. I also identified a significant increase in backcountry 

motorized recreational access in the XGCA from Fish Lake mine workers as a major concern. 

Backcountry use by ATVs and snowmobiles in the XGCA and surrounding areas is likely to 

increase dramatically, whether it is hunting or recreation, is likely to increase dramatically, 

leading to further disturbances to grizzly bears and illegal kills. Certainly the number of illegal 

quad trails, already a growing problem, will also increase; particularly with recent cutbacks on 

Ministry of Forests staff that monitor and regulate such things. 

E. GLOBAL WARMING WILL CAUSE ECOSYSTEM STRESS, INCREASED 

WILDFIRES AND A NET DIMINISHMENT OF GRIZZLY BEAR HABITAT VALUES 

Another major shortcoming of Taseko’s EIS is it did not factor in climate changes that will result 

in significant alterations to wildlife habitat composition and abundance over the next 30-50 years 

and beyond. Instead they assume a static habitat situation, which won’t be the case at al. 

The Xeni Gwet’in recently completed a draft climate change adaptation study (Lerner et al. 

2010). I contributed a review of effects on wildlife, including habitat changes, a previous draft of 

which has been submitted to the Panel. As a result of further input to myself from another 

biologist, some changes have recently been made for my final text. For grizzly bears, it is 

expected that some important habitats and food sources will decrease in abundance and 

productivity including wild potatoes, whitebark pine, wetlands/riparian areas, and wild Pacific 

salmon. Increased berry production from wildfires will offset some of the fall habitat and food 

source losses for grizzly bears such as whitebark pine and salmon. Losses of other seasonal food 

sources such as wild potato and green plants in wetlands are a major concern as these represent 

specialized habitats that grizzly bears would use disproportionately to their low occurrence in the 

ecosystem and represent a net loss of food resources, apart from the mine development. This is 

particularly true of wetlands/riparian areas as well wild potatoes and other root/corm foods are 

also only dug by grizzly bears where the soils are not compacted (McCrory and Herrero 1983). 

Direct habitat losses from the mine and losses from displacement from the mine, road and 

transmission line zone of influence will therefore be cumulative to habitat reductions caused by 

global warming. 

F. SUMMARY OF McCRORY WILDLIFE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS REVIEW ON 

CHILCOTIN GRIZZLY BEARS 

In the Journal of Animal Ecology, Bascompte and Sole (1996) refer to an “extinction threshold”.

14 

Because grizzly bear populations are highly sensitive to human-caused mortality, habitat losses 

and displacement critical threshold are reached that should not be exceeded if the population it to 

be expected to survive or recover over the long term. As this has already happened in the 

provincial “extirpated” grizzly bear zone over much of the Cariboo-Chilcotin plateau just 30 km 

to the north of the proposed mine is a good indication that the surviving 100 or so grizzlies are 

highly vulnerable to the same extinction process that has been expanding in this dryland 

ecosystem for the past 40 or 50 years. The threatened status of the West Chilcotin grizzly 

population, meaning they are already down to half of their original estimated numbers combined 

with increasing encroachment of habitat fragmentation from logging and now mining into their 

last wilderness enclaves suggests that these grizzly bears are already “on the edge” and at the 

“extinction threshold” from which, if pressed further, they will continue to decline and go extinct. 

Certainly the much lower numbers in similar habitats in the Lillooet area to the south of the 

Taseko supports this. 

It is my conclusion that the impacts of the proposed project, serious in their own right, will be 

additive to the already existing layer of cumulative adverse effects to grizzly population and its 

habitat and, because most of the negative effects cannot be mitigated, will push the grizzly 

population over the extinction threshold. Once the mine is developed, impacts such as road 

mortalities will not be reversible or adequately mitigated. 

G. EFFECTS OF MINE DEVELOPMENT ON ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY OF 

ADJACENT PROTECTION AREAS AND CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS 

[To be done completed. April 16]

LITERATURE CITED: 

15 

Austin, M.A., D.C. Heard, and A.N. Hamilton. 2004. Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) harvest 

management in British Columbia. B.C. Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection, Victoria, BC. 

9 pp. Can be found at http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/documents/gb_harvest_mgmt.pdf . See 

Appendix 3 

Bascompte, J. and R.V. Sole. 1996. Habitat fragmentation and extinction thresholds in spatially 

explicit models. J. Animal Ecology 65: 45:473. 

B.C .2005. British Columbia’s Mountain Pine Beetle Action Plan 2006-2011. Unpublished 

report. 

BCMoFR. 2005. Ministry of Forests and Range Mountain Pine Beetle Stewardship Research 

Strategy. Unpublished report BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Research Branch, Victoria, BC. 

B.C. Commission on Resources and Environment. 1994. Cariboo-Chilcotin Land Use Plan. 237 

pp. 

B.C. Min. of Environment, Lands and Parks (MELP). 1995. Conservation of Grizzly Bears in 

British Columbia. Background Report. 70 pp. 

B.C .Parks. 1996. Ts’il?os Provincial Park Master Plan (Draft). BC Parks, Cariboo District, 

Williams Lake, B.C. 

B. C. Commission on Resources and Environment. 1994. Cariboo-Chilcotin Land Use Plan 

(CCLUP). 237 pp. 

Dau, C. 1989. Management and biology of brown bears at Cold Bay, Alaska. Pp. 19-26 In: Bear – 

people conflicts: Proc. Symp. On Manage. Strategies, NWT Dept. Renewable Resources, 

Yellowknife, NWT. 

Dunleavey, M. 2009. Draft community wildfire protection plan for Xeni Gwet’in First Nation. 

Fleishman, E., D.D. Murphy, and P.F. Brussard. 2000. A new method for selection of umbrella 

species for conservation planning. Ecological Applications 10:569-579. 

Hamilton, A.N. 2008. 2008 grizzly bear population estimate for British Columbia. 

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/documents/gbcs/2008_Grizzly_Population_Estimate_final.pdf 

Iachetti 2008. A Decision-Support Framework for Conservation Planning in the Central Interior 

Ecoregion of British Columbia, Canada. Nature Conservancy of Canada. Unpublished report for 

Alcoa Foundation Conservation and Sustainability Fellowship and World Conservation Union 

(IUCN). 113 pp. 

Lerner, J., T. Rossing, D. Delong, W. McCrory, R. Holmes and T. Mylnowski. 2010. Xeni 

Gwet'in community-based climate change adaptation plan. Report for Xeni Gwet'in First Nation. 

McCrory, W. 2002. Preliminary conservation assessment of the rainshadow wild horse 

ecosystem, Brittany Triangle, Chilcotin, British Columbia, Canada. A review of grizzly and black

ears, other wildlife, feral horses and wild salmon. Unpublished report. Friends of the Nemiah 

Valley. 

McCrory, W. 2005. Roads to Nowhere. Technical review of ecological damage and proposed 

restoration related to B.C. Ministry of Forests control actions – 2003 Chilko wildfire, 

Unpublished report. Friends of the Nemiah Valley. 

16 

McCrory, W. 2005. Proposed access management plan for Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Caretaker 

Area, Chilcotin, B.C. 

McCrory, 2009. Assessment of trails for the Xeni Gwet’in tourism project. – wildlife and 

cultural/heritage values & wild horse tourism areas. 

McCrory, W.P. 2010. Draft review of implications of climate change to habitats for some wildlife 

species and wild horses in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area, Chilcotin, BC. Contribution to Xeni 

Gwet’in adaptation to climate change review. 

McLellan, B.N. and F.W. Hovey. 1993. Development and preliminary results of partial-cut 

timber harvesting in a riparian area to maintain grizzly bear spring habitat values. Pp. 107-118 

IN: Morgan, K.H. and M.A. Lashmar (Eds). Riparian habitat management and research. Fraser 

River Action Plan Special Publication, Canadian Wildlife Service, Delta, B.C. 

McLellan, B.N., F.W. Hovey, R.D. Mace, J.G. Woods, D.W. Carney, M.L. Gibeau, W.L. 

Wakkinen and W.F. Kasworm. 1999. Rates and causes of grizzly bear mortality in the interior 

mountains of British Columbia, Alberta, Montana, Washington, and Idaho. J. Wildl. 

Manage.63:911-920. 

Sopuck, L., K. Ovaska, and R. Jakimchuk. 1997. Inventory of red- and blue-listed species, and 

identified wildlife in the Taseko Management Zone, July – August, 1996 and February, 1997. 

Renewable Resources Consulting Services Ltd. Report to B.C. Min. of Env. Lands and Parks, 

Williams Lake, B.C. 60 pp plus appendices. 

Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management (MSRM). 2004. Draft. Chilcotin Sustainable 

Resource Management Plan. 2004. Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management, Cariboo 

Region, Williams Lake. B.C. 

Mueller, C. 2008. Grizzly bears in the Tatlayoko valley and along the upper Chilko River: 

population estimates and movements. Annual Progress and Data Summary Report: year 2 (2007). 

Unpublished report. Nature Conservancy Canada. 27 pp. 

Spalding, D.J. 2000. The early history of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British 

Columbia. B.C. Minist. Environ., Lands and Parks, Wildl. Branch, Victoria, B.C. Wildl. Bull. No. 

100. 61 pp. 

Taseko Mines Limited. 2009. Prosperity Gold-Copper Project. Supplemental Report to Taseko 

Mines Ltd. Prosperity Gold-Copper Project Environmental Impact Statement:Local and Regional 

Environmental Effects on Wildlife and 

vegetation)*eso,rces)of)01portance)to)the)4silh6ot7in)National 

Wakkinen, W.L. 1993. Selkirk mountains grizzly bear ecology report. Threatened and 

endangered species project E-3-8. Idaho Dept. Fish and Game, Boise, ID. 19 pp.

17 

Wakkinen, W.L. and B. Allen-Johnson. 1996. Grizzly bear enforcement and education project. 

Selkirk Ecosystem project, Threatened and Endangered Species Project E-142, Idaho Dept. Fish 

and Game, Boise ID. 72 pp. 

Wakkinen, W.L. and W.F. Kasworm. 1999. Rates and causes of grizzly bear mortality in the 

interior mountains of British Columbia, Alberta, Montana, Washington, and Idaho. J. Wildl. 

Manage.63:911-920. 

Wilson, S.J. and R.J. Hebda. 2008. Mitigating and adapting to climate change through the 

Conservation of Nature. Report to Land Trust Alliance of BC. 58 pp.

1 

CURRICULUM VITAE 

Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist (R.P.Bio.) 

President, McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. 

Box 479, New Denver, British Columbia, Canada V0G 1S0 

Phone (250) 358-7796 / Fax: (250) 358-7950 / E-mail: mccrorywildlife@xplornet.com 

_____________________________ 

EDUCATION 

April 2010 (Last up-date) 

B.Sc. Honours Zoology, University of British Columbia, 1966. Course emphasis: 

Wildlife management. Honors thesis on sub-speciation of mountain goats 

(published), thesis advisor was Dr. Ian McTaggart-Cowan. 

PROFESSIONAL LICENCE 

Registered Professional Biologist (R.P.Bio.), British Columbia. Member #168 

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES 

� Member, College of Applied Biology (Registered Professional Biologist (R.P.Bio.) 

� Member of, and contributor to, the International Association for Bear Research 

and Management, also known as the International Bear Association (IBA). With 

members from some 50 countries, the organization supports the scientific 

management of bears through research and distribution of information, and 

sponsors international conferences on all aspects of bear biology, ecology and 

management. Have presented at numerous international conferences and have 

had peer-reviewed scientific papers published in the journal Ursus, the IBA's 

annual journal. 

EXPERTISE SUMMARY 

A broad ecological background including extensive experience in: 

� Bear hazard assessments 

� Management guidelines for parks and conservation areas 

� Mammal habitat inventories 

� Waterfowl/bird surveys 

� Caribou inventories 

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist

� Forestry-wildlife research 

� Environmental impact assessments 

� Conservation biology assessments 

� Population inventory and assessments, population management 

� Species at risk assessments 

� Wildlife viewing programs 

� Trail routing and tourism studies 

Highlights: 

2 

� 30 years experience in bear ecology, habitat mapping and bear safety and 

conservation issues, specifically bear hazard assessments and management 

guidelines for government agencies such as BC Parks, Parks Canada, and 

municipalities. Have worked for parks agencies across western Canada and the 

Yukon/NWT. (Publications list which follows demonstrates the range of locations 

and studies completed.) 

� Served 3 years on the B.C. Ministry of Environment’s grizzly bear scientific 

advisory committee. 

� More recently, carried out 6 bear hazard assessments for municipal governments 

and park agencies in southwestern B.C. 

� Helped to establish, and have worked with, the Valhalla Wilderness Society for 

the past 30 years. We have protected of 1.25 million acres of public lands for 

bears. President of the Valhalla Foundation, which has protected private lands 

with high ecological values. Have been instrumental in the protection of 

numerous conservation areas and parks, including Valhalla Provincial Park, the 

Khutzemateen Grizzly Sanctuary, the Goat Range Provincial Park and the Spirit 

Bear Conservation Area. 

� Hired as advisor and guide to bear films and documentaries (list below). 

� Developed and led guided group outings as part of my “Safer Travel in Bear 

Country” program (approx. 1,000 people taken through this training program). 

� Produced, or contributed significantly to, over 80 professional 

research/management reports as well as 7 published research papers (list 

follows). 

VOLUNTARY WORK 

� Director, Valhalla Wilderness Society 

� President, Valhalla Foundation for Ecology and Social Justice 

� Board Member, Get Bear Smart Society 

In addition, provide scientific expertise on bear management issues for a broad 

range of nonprofit groups, and act as a peer reviewer for conservation organizations’ 

scientific reports. I have recently provided support for: the David Suzuki 

Foundation, the Western Canada Wilderness Committee, West Coast Environmental 

Law, Ecojustice, the Sierra Club, Environmental Investigation Agency (London, 

England), Friends of Nemaiah Valley, Friends of Ecological Reserves, Rainforest 


Action Network, Defenders of Wildlife, Jumbo Wild, West Kootenay EcoCentre, 

Great Bear Foundation, Raincoast Conservation Society, Bear Watch, North Shore 

Black Bear Network, Northern Lights Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre, the Xeni- 

Gwetin First Nation, Williams Lake Indian Band, Federation of Mountain Clubs of 

BC, and The Land Conservancy of BC. 

FILM PROJECTS AND DOCUMENTARIES 

3 

Frequently work as a scientific advisor, bear guide, and/or on-camera personality for 

nature documentaries on bears, parks and conservation issues. A partial list of 

productions I have been involved with: 

Productions featuring Wayne McCrory and his conservation work: 

� Champions of the Wild (Wayne McCrory: Spirit Bears and Grizzlies) 

(Omni Film Productions for Knowledge Network) 

� The Grizzly Man <strong>From</strong> New Denver: Wayne McCrory 

(The Leading Edge: Innovation in BC. Knowledge Network) 

� Lucy, The Bear Detective (Dogs With Jobs. Featuring Wayne McCrory 

and Lucy, his bear research dog. Knowledge Network) 

� Goat Range Provincial Park – Great Canadian Parks (Good Earth 

Productions) 

� Island of the Ghost Bear (Nature: BBC TV) 

� The Garden of the Grizzlies (Global Family: TVO--TV Ontario) 

� Great Canadian Parks: Khutzeymateen (Good Earth Productions for 

Knowledge Network) 

� Land of the Spirit Bear (Spirit Bear Youth Coalition) 

� Great Canadian Parks: Spirit Bear (Good Earth Productions for 

Knowledge Network) 

� Great Canadian Parks: Kitlope (Good Earth Productions for Knowledge 

Network) 

� Ushuaia Nature: Des origines aux mondes perdus (in French. Production 

on rare animals featuring Wayne McCrory’s work on Spirit Bears. TFI – 

France Television Network) 

� The Green Inlet – Spirit Bear (Good Earth Productions) 

� L’ours Kermode: La Semaine Verte (in French. French CBC) 

� Wild Horses, Unconquered People (Omni Film Productions Ltd.) 

� Tiere die Geschichte schrieben: Das Pferd (in German. Includes Wayne 

McCrory’s work protecting Wild Horses. Matthey Film Productions) 

� The Nature of Things: Khutzemateen (CBC) 

� The Nature of Things: The Salmon Forest (CBC) 

� The Nature of Things: Grizzly Bears: Losing Ground (CBC) 

� The Fifth Estate: Khutzeymateen (CBC) 

� Wild Things: British Columbia’s Wild West Coast (Wild Exposure 

Preservation Productions) 


� Spirit Bear (Cross-Country Canada. CBC) 

� Numerous television news reports and talk shows 

Provided scientific information and/or acted as bear safety guide: 

4 

� Caught in the Moment: Grizzlies (Tigress Productions, UK) 

� Princess Royal Island (Great Bear Foundation) 

� Spirit Bears (NHK: Japan Broadcasting Corp.) 

� A Future for the Grizzly? (The Grizzly Project) 

� Island of the Spirit Bear (Raincoast Conservation Society) 

� The Science of Survival: Grizzly Bear Management in British Columbia 

(Electric Bamboo Productions) 

� The Last Mustangs (Patrice Halley) 

� Big Bear Week (BBC) 

� Skeena Journal: Khutzemateen (CBC) 

� NRDC Spirit Bear Campaign (Natural Resources Defence Council, USA) 

� Save the Great Spirit Bear Rainforest (Corky Productions) 

� Canadian Coastal Rainforest – the Spirit Bear (in Japanese. Ikimono 

Chikyu Kiko Productions) 

� Cap sur les terres vierges du grizzli (In French. Les Productions Espace 

Vert XII inc.) 

� Canada’s Vanishing Grizzly (Friends of Ecological Reserves) 

� Trigger Happy (Environmental Investigation Agency, UK) 

� White Grizzly (Discovery Channel) 

PROFESSIONAL STUDIES AND PUBLICATIONS: 

Scientific publications in proceedings or refereed journals 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1991. An update on using bear hazard evaluation as a means 

to minimize conflicts between people and bears in recreation situations. Proceedings of the 

Grizzly Management Workshop, Revelstoke, B.C. pp: 57-62 

McCrory, W., S. Herrero, G. Jones, and E. Mallam. 1990. The role of the B.C. provincial 

park system in grizzly bear preservation. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on 

Bear Research & Management, Victoria, B.C. 6 pp. 

McCrory, W.P., S. Herrero and G. Jones. 1987. Program to minimize conflicts between 

grizzly bears and people in British Columbia provincial parks. Paper presented at Bear - 

People Conflicts Symposium, Yellowknife, N.W. T. April 1987. 

McCrory, W., S. Herrero. and P. Whitfield. 1986. Using grizzly habitat information to reduce 

human-grizzly bear conflicts in Kokanee Glacier and Valhalla Provincial Parks, BC. 

In Proc. - Grizzly Bear Habitat Symposium: 24-30. Contreras, G.P. and K.E. Evans 

(compilers). U.S.D.A. Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-207. 


5 

Herrero, S., W. McCrory and B. Pelchat. 1983. The application of grizzly bear habitat 

evaluation to trail and campsite locations in Kananaskis Provincial Park, Alberta. 

International Conference on Bear Research and Management gt 6:187-193 

McCrory, W., D. A. Blood, D. Portman and D. Harwood. 1977. Mountain goat surveys in Yoho 

National Park, British Columbia. Proc. First Int. Mountain Goat Symp.:69-73. 

Cowan, Ian McT. and Wayne McCrory. 1970. Variation in the mountain goat Oreamnos 

americanus (Blainville). Journ. of Mammalogy 51, No. 1: 60-73. 

Research/Management Reports (some peer reviewed) 

Craighead, L. and W. P. McCrory. 2010. A preliminary core conservation review of the 

dryland grizzly bear of the Chilcotin Ranges in British Columbia. Report to Friends of 

Nemaiah Valley, Valhalla Wilderness Society and Xeni Gwet’in First Nation Government. 

McCrory, W.P. and P. Paquet. 2009. Proposed bear viewing strategy for the K’ztim-a-deen 

(Khutzeymateen) Grizzly Bear Sanctuary & K’tzim-a-deen Inlet Conservancies, British 

Columbia. Report for the K’tzim-a-deen Management Committee & Planning Process, Prince 

Rupert, B.C. 

McCrory, W. 2009a. Assessment of trails for the Xeni Gwet’in tourism project -wildlife and 

cultural/heritage values & wild horse tourism areas. 

McCrory, W. 2009b. Notes & outline & ideas for background review of bear viewing 

plan/strategy for the Mussel River and Poison Cove area, Fiordlands Conservancy. Report for 

BC Parks and Kitasoo First Nation. 

McCrory, W. 2009c. 2008 black bear risk assessment & management recommendations for public 

recreation trails – The Lower Seymour Conservation Reserve (LSCR). Report to Metro 

Vancouver Watershed Division. 

McCrory, W. 2009d. 2008 black bear risk assessment & management recommendations for 

Lynn Headwaters Regional Park - hiking network between Grouse Mountain Resort and 

Goat Mountain/Ridge. Report to Metro Vancouver Parks Department. 

McCrory, W. 2009e. 2008 notes on preliminary black bear risk assessment & management 

recommendations for restricted access areas – Metro Vancouver Watershed Division. 

McCrory, W. 2008a. 2007- 2008 black bear risk assessment - Minnekhada Regional Park. 

Report for Metro Vancouver Parks. 

McCrory, W. 2008b. 2007- 2008 black bear risk assessment – Kanaka Creek Regional Park. 

Report for Metro Vancouver Parks. 

McCrory, W. 2008c. Black bear risk assessment and management recommendations for 

Metro Vancouver Regional Parks. 

Paquet, M.M. and W.P. McCrory. 2007. Bear hazard assessment – City of Coquitlam. 

McCrory, W. 2007. Black bear habitat and corridor map project, Resort Municipality of 

Whistler (RMOW). Draft. 


McCrory, W. 2006. Bear hazard assessment and problem analysis. Phase I application for 

Bear Smart Community Status. District Municipalities of North & West Vancouver, City of 

North Vancouver, B.C. 

6 

McCrory, W. 2005. Bear hazard assessment - problem analysis report & proposed bear-people 

conflict prevention plan, Britannia Bay Properties Ltd., British Columbia. 

McCrory, W. and B. Cross. 2005. A preliminary review of potential impacts of snowmobile 

recreation on grizzly bear winter denning habitats and wolverine winter natal/maternal 

denning habitats in S.E. Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. with GIS grizzly bear and wolverine 

den habitat models. Report to B.C. Parks. 31 pp. 

McCrory, W.P. 2005. Proposed bear-people conflict prevention plan for Resort Municipality of 

Whistler. 

McCrory, W.P., and Paquet, M.M. 2005. Bear hazard & problem analysis report & proposed 

bear-people conflict prevention plan, District of Squamish, British Columbia. 

McCrory, W. 2005. Background tourism feasibility study – wild species viewing & guidelines. 

Xeni Gwet’in First Nation, Chilcotin, B.C. 

McCrory, W. 2005. Proposed access management plan for Xeni Gwet’in First Nation 

Caretaker Area, Chilcotin, B.C. 

McCrory, W. 2005. Roads to Nowhere. Technical review of ecological damage & proposed 

restoration related to B.C. Ministry of Forests control actions – 2003 Chilko Wildfire, B.C. 

Re: bulldozed fireguards & access roads & peat meadow damage. Report to Friends of 

Nemaiah Valley, Victoria, B.C. 

McCrory, W.P. 2004. Preliminary bear hazard assessment of Resort Municipality of Whistler 

(RMOW). Submitted to RMOW. 107 pp. 

McCrory, W.P. 2004. Bear habitat ground-truthing surveys of Resort Municipality of 

Whistler, August 14 – 23/04 by McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. for Terrestrial Ecosystem 

Mapping classification and seasonal bear habitat rankings. Draft to Whistler Community 

Habitat Resources Project (CHRP). 

McCrory, W.P., M. Williams, B. Cross, L. Craighead, P. Paquet, A. Craighead and T. Merrill. 

2004. Grizzly bear, wildlife and human use of a major protected wildlife corridor in the 

Canadian Rockies, Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. Draft progress report to Valhalla Wilderness 

Society and Y2Y Wilburforce Science Symposium. Draft & In Press. 

McCrory, W.P., P. Paquet, and B. Cross. 2003. Assessing conservation values for gray wolf 

and Sitka deer - BC central coast rainforest. Report to the Valhalla Wilderness Society, New 

Denver, B.C. 

McCrory, W.P. 2003. A bear hazard study of recreational facilities in a major grizzly bear 

travel corridor with management recommendations to minimize conflicts – A GIS Grizzly 

Bear Encounter Risk Model. Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks. 174 pp. 

McCrory, W.P. 2003. Ecological connectivity – 2003. Multi-year study of grizzly/wildlife 

movements & application to GIS corridor model design – Kakwa grizzly bear – wildlife 

corridor pilot study. Research proposal submitted to Wilburforce Foundation, Y2Y 

Conservation Initiative. 


McCrory, W. 2003. Preliminary bear hazard evaluation. E.C. Manning and Skagit Valley 

Provincial Parks & Cascade Recreation Area. Report to B.C. Parks, Okanagan District, 

Penticton, B.C. 

McCrory, W.P. 2002. Black bear hazard & habitat assessment, Diamond Head Area – 

Garibaldi Provincial Park, B.C. Incorporating a Geographic Information System (GIS) 

Decision-Support Model. Report to B.C. Parks, Brackendale, B.C. 117 pp. 

7 

McCrory, W.P. 2002. Preliminary conservation assessment of the Rainshadow Wild Horse 

Ecosystem, Brittany Triangle, British Columbia, Canada. A review of grizzly and black bears, 

other wildlife, feral horses and wild salmon. Report to Friends of Nemaiah Valley (FONV), 

Victoria, B.C. 

McCrory, W.P. and B. Cross. 2001. Trails, Hiking Routes, Roads, Campsites and Other Facilities in 

Southeast Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. Composite map to B.C. Parks. Colour DEM, 1:37,600 

scale, plus tables with trail descriptors. Updated in 2004. 

McCrory, W.P. 2001. Background review for a bear hazard study and bear-people conflict 

prevention plan for E.C. Manning and Skagit Valley Provincial Parks and Cascade 

Recreation Area. Report to BC Parks, Summerland, B.C. 55 pp. 

McCrory, W.P., J. Bergdahl, P. Paquet and B. Cross. 2001. A conservation area design for 

protection of the white black bear (Ursus americanus kermodei) on the central coast of 

British Columbia. Report to Valhalla Wilderness Society, New Denver, B.C. In Press. 

McCrory, W.P. 2000. A review of the bear-people management program for Kokanee Glacier 

Provincial Park, BC. Report to BC Parks, Nelson, BC. 88 pp. 

McCrory, W.P., C. McTavish and P. Paquet. 1999. Grizzly bear background research 

document. 1993-1996 for GIS bear encounter risk model, Yoho National Park, British 

Columbia. A background report for the GIS Decision-Support Model for the Lake 

0’Hara/McArthur Valley Socio-ecological study. Parks Canada. 96 pp. plus appendices. 

McTavish, C. and W. McCrory, 1998. Grizzly/black bear habitat assessment. Stoltmann 

Wilderness. Elaho River Drainage, British Columbia, Canada. Report to Western Canada 

Wilderness Committee, Vancouver, B.C. 

McCrory. W.P. 1998. Bear habitat and hazard assessment. Duffey Lake Provincial Park, British 

Columbia. Report to BC Parks, Brackendale, BC. 29 pp plus appendices. 

McCrory, W. 1998. A preliminary bear habitat and hazard assessment, Kakwa Lake area. 

Kakwa Recreation and Protected Area, British Columbia. Report to B.C. Parks, include. GIS 

bear habitat map. 35 pp. 

McCrory, W. 1998b. Progress notes - Bear habitat assessments (Aug. 16-25/98) re- study 

design for a GIS bear encounter risk model for Kakwa Recreation and Protected Area, 

British Columbia. Report to B.C. Parks and Habitat Conservation Trust Fund. 12 pp. plus 

tables. 

McCrory, W. and T. Leja. 1998. Preliminary bear hazard assessment, proposed Summit Meadow 

Ridge Trail, Mt. Revelstoke National Park, B.C. Report to Parks Canada Warden Service, 

Revelstoke, B.C. 

McCrory, W. 1997. Bear conflict prevention plan for Akamina Kishinena Provincial Park, 

B.C. (1997-2001). Report to B.C. Parks, Wasa, B.C. 


McCrory, W. 1997a. Preliminary evaluation of bear habitats in Moose Creek and comments 

on the potential impacts of the proposed magnetite mine development. Progress report to 

Parks Canada - Yoho/Lake Louise/Kootenay. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1997b. Grizzly bear habitats and trail hazard assessment for 

Ottertail fire road and Goodsir Pass Trail-Goodsir Flats. Progress report to Parks Canada - 

Yoho/Lake Louise/Kootenay. 

8 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1995a. Revised grizzly bear capability for Wells Gray Provincial 

Park, biophysical map. Report to BC Parks, Kamloops, B.C. 40 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1995b. Preliminary bear hazard assessment of Wells Gray 

Provincial Park. Report to BC Parks, Kamloops, B.C. 20 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1995. Year two progress report. Grizzly bear habitats and trail 

hazard assessment - for Lake O'Hara/McArthur Valley socio-ecological study. 32 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1994. Assessment of bear habitats and hazards. Liard River 

Hot Springs Provincial Park, British Columbia. Report to BC Parks, Fort St. John, BC. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1994. Bear hazard assessment and recommendations. Cougar Valley 

and Balu Pass Trails, Glacier National Park, B.C. Report for Parks Canada Warden Service, 

Revelstoke, B.C. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1994. Bear hazard assessment and management recommendations. 

The Odaray Prospect-McArthur Pass area (Lake O'Hara) and the McArthur Creek Valley. Report 

to Yoho National Park, Heritage Resource Conservation Service. 102 pp. 

McCrory, W. 1994. Values of a fully protected Kitlope Ecosystem for bears. Report to 

Nanakila Institute, Kitimaat Village, B.C. Draft. 

McCrory, W., G. Copeland and E. Mallam. 1993. A proposed management framework for the 

Khutzeymateen grizzly sanctuary, B.C. Report to Valhalla Wilderness Society, Friends of 

Ecological Reserves and World Wildlife Fund. Draft. 32 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1992. Grizzly bear resource management report, Kokanee 

Glacier Park and Recreation Area. Report to B.C. Parks. 32 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1992. Grizzly bear habitat/hazard assessment of recreation 

trails in Marten Creek and Idaho Lookout area. Report to Ministry of Forests, Castlegar, 

B.C. 

McCrory, W., E. Mallam and G. Copeland. 1991. A proposal for a white grizzly wilderness 

park in the Goat Range of British Columbia. Report to Valhalla Wilderness Society. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990. Preliminary bear hazard evaluation for Bowron Lake 

Provincial Park, B.C. Report to BC Parks, Prince George, B.C. 73 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990 Bear hazard evaluation in Monashee Provincial Park, 

B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Kamloops, B.C. 22pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990. Bear hazard evaluation in areas of Mt. Robson 

Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Prince George, B.C. 20 pp. 


9 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990. Bear hazard evaluation in Monkman Provincial Park, 

B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Prince George B.C. 19 pp. 

McCrory, W.P., and E. Mallam. 1989. Bear-people management plan for the Atnarko River, 

Tweedsmuir Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Prince George, B.C. Parts I & II. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1989. Bear Management Plan, West Kootenay District, BC 

Parks (1989-1994). Part 1 and Part 11 (Background document). 

McCrory, W.P. and E. Mallam. 1988. Grizzly bear viewing and bear-salmon interpretive 

potential along the Atnarko River, Tweedsmuir Provincial Park. Report to B.C. Parks, 

Victoria, B.C. December 1988. 

McCrory, W.P. and E. Mallam. 1988 Ecological, preservation and public appreciation values 

and potential logging impacts in the proposed Khutzeymateen grizzly sanctuary, B.C. Final 

report to Friends of Ecological Reserves, World Wildlife Fund and other sponsors. 93 pp. 

McCrory, W.P. and E. Mallam. 1987. Grizzly bear hazard evaluation - Elk Lakes Park and 

Recreation Area, Mt. Assiniboine Park and Purcell Wilderness Conservancy, B.C. B.C. Parks 

Division, Kamloops, B.C. 

McCrory, W., S. Herrero and E. Mallam. 1987. Preservation and management of the grizzly 

bear in BC Provincial Parks - The Urgent Challenge. Report to BC Parks Division, Victoria, 

BC. 187 pp. 

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1985. An assessment of grizzly and black bear habitat in 

Hamber Provincial Park, B.C. with recommendations to reduce human-bear conflicts. Report 

to B.C. Parks. 57 pp. 

McCrory, W.P. 1985 Grizzly bear habitat and out door recreation in Kokanee Glacier 

Provincial Park, B.C. Conflicts and recommendations. Volume 1. B.C. Parks Division. 118 

p. 

McCrory, W.P. 1984. An evaluation of grizzly bear habitat capability and use and recreation 

developments in Valhalla Provincial Park, B.C. Parks Division. 153 pp. 

McCrory, W. 1979. An inventory of the mountain goats of Glacier and Mount Revelstoke 

National Parks, British Columbia. Parks Canada Rep., Western Region. Glacier National 

Park, Revelstoke, BC. 200 pp. typescript. 

McCrory, W.P. and D.A. Blood. 1978. An inventory of the mammals of Yoho National Park, British 

Columbia. Parks Canada, W.R.O., Calgary, Alta. Assisted by Park Wardens and Naturalists. 269 

pp. 

McCrory, W. 1965. Variation in the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). B.Sc Honors Zoology 

Thesis. University of British Columbia. 44 pp. 


2010 

Xeni Gwet’in Community‐based 

Climate Change Adaptation Plan 

Prepared for: 

The XENI GWET’IN FIRST NATION 

by ECOLIBRIO 

in collaboration with Cariboo 

Envirotech, McCrory Wildlife Services, 

Orman Consulting, Theo Mylnowski and 

Project Management 

Services 

3/31/2010 

1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

This report would not have been possible without the expertise and assistance of many people. We 

would like to acknowledge the project steering committee (Catherine Haller, Bonnie Myers, 

Charlene Lulua, Conway Lulua, Elsie Quilt, Vera Quilt, Maryann Solomon, Annie C. Williams, and 

Wilfred William) for their advice and input throughout the study. We would also like to sincerely 

thank the elders of the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation for their recollections, responding to the project 

survey 

and project presentations with patience and wisdom and Rita Coombs and Sylvie Quilt for 

cooking for us during our community meetings. 

Special thanks to Chief Marilyn Baptiste, Councilor Lois Williams and Councilor Benny William for 

their support of the project. The project team also acknowledges the indispensable support from 

Nancy Oppermann and Pam Quilt regarding project management and coordination expertise and 

from David Setah for superb translation during key meetings. You all helped make sure the project 

ran smoothly. Another special thanks to Tracy Tanis for her amazing communication skills and her 

ability to make science fun for kids. We also gratefully acknowledge the Xeni Gwet’in school kids 

for assisting in presenting adaptation strategies to the community. And last but not least we would 

like to thank our team colleagues Deb Delong of Orman Consulting, Rick Holmes of Cariboo 

Envirotech 

and Wayne McCrory of McCrory Wildlife Serves and Theo Mylnowski for their scientific 

expertise 

and their willingness to think outside the box. 

John Lerner and Tine Rossing 

Ecolibrio 

Please Note: The Tsilhqot’in have met the test for aboriginal title in the lands described in 

Tsilhqot’in Nation v. British Columbia, 2007 BCSC 1700 (“Tsilhqot’in Nation”). These lands are 

within the Tsilhqot’in traditional territory and the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation’s caretaking area. 

Nothing in this document shall abrogate or derogate from any aboriginal title or aboriginal 

rights of the Tsilhqot’in, the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation or any Tsilhqot’in or Xeni Gwet’in 

members. 

i


TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. INTRODUCTION 

1.1. Why Climate Change is Important 1 

1.2. Why adaptation to climate change is necessary 1 

1.3. Overview of the Study 3 

2. METHODOLOGY 

2.1. Rationale of the Study 3 

2.2. Objectives of the Study 3 

2.3. Approach 4 

2.4. Framework for Assessment 4 

2.5. Tools and Methods 4 

2.6. Data Analysis 

6 

2.7. Community Engagement 7 

3. BACKGROUND 

3.1. Description of the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 7 

3.2. Geography 10 

3.3. Socio‐ economic Context 11 

4. CLIMATE CHANGES: PAST TRENDS AND FUTUER PROJECTIONS 

4.1. General Climate 12 

4.2. BEC Zones 13 

4.3. Historical Climate Trends 14 

4.4. Climate Projections 17 

5. CURRENT AND PROJECTED BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS 

5.1. Water Resources 22 

5.2. Forest and Vegetation 29 

5.3. Wildlife, 

Wild Horses 38 

5.4. Fishery 

42 

6. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 

6.1. Biodiversity 49 

6.2. Health and Safety 50 

6.3. Water Supply 51 

6.4. Food Supply 52 

6.5. Shelter and Infrastructure 53 

6.6. Energy Supply 54 

i

6.7. Livelihood 55 

6.8. Governance 56 

6.9. Culture 57 

7. 

XENI GWET’IN VISION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 58 

8. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 

8.1. Biodiversity Protection and Conservation 58 

8.2. Health and Safety Enhancements 60 

8.3. Water Supply Protection and Conservation 62 

8.4. Food Supply Protection and Diversification 63 

8.5. Shelter and Infrastructure Improvements 64 

8.6. Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and Diversification 64 

8.7. Livelihood Diversification 65 

8.8. 

Good Governance 67 

8.9. 

Cultural Preservation 67 

9. CLIMATE ADAPTATION ACTION & MONITORING PLAN 69 

REFERENCES 

80 

ANNEXES – BACKGROUND PAPERS 

85 

1. Water Resources and Climate Change in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 

2. Climate Change Impacts on Forests and Vegetation in the Xeni Gwet’in 

Caretaker Area 

3. Climate Change and Wildlife and Wild Horse Impacts in the Xeni Gwet’in 

Caretaker Area 

4. The Impacts of Climate Change 

on the Fishery Resource in the Xeni 

Gwet’in Caretaker Area 

ii

iii


Climate change may be the defining issue of our generation. Since the Industrial Revolution, the 

mean surface temperature of Earth has increased an average 0.6 °C (Celsius) due to the 

accumulation of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere. 1 Historically, the Earth is 

accustomed to experiencing wide‐spread severe environmental change and has always been able to 

adapt to these changes accordingly. Yet, the difference now is the speed and scale of the warming 

that is currently occurring. Most of this change has occurred within the past 30 to 40 years, and the 

rate of increase is accelerating. These rising temperatures will have significant impacts at a global 

scale and at local and regional levels. As a result, climate change will increasingly impact natural 

and 

human systems to alter the productivity, diversity and functions of many ecosystems and 

livelihoods globally. 

For resource‐dependent communities, such as many First Nations in BC, climate change may 

increasingly compound existing vulnerabilities as the availability and quality of natural resources 

that they heavily depend upon decline. Limited resources and capacities for responding to stresses, 

such as wildfires, floods and droughts will increasingly constrain their ability to meet basic needs 

and become self‐governing. There is, therefore, an urgent need to begin reducing current 

vulnerabilities 

and enhancing adaptive capacity of the communities so that people of these 

communities can face the longer‐term impacts of climate change with resilience. 

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation is one of six Tsilhqot’in communities in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin, 

occupying one of the last intact ecosystems on the east side of the Chilcotin range. While the 

community is relatively dynamic and healthy, it is still healing from the effects of colonization and 

the residential school system, it is increasingly experiencing stress over resource use conflicts in 

their traditional territory (Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area) and it is increasingly experiencing some of 

the early impacts of climate change (forest fire and fish stock declines). These impacts alone have 

left the Xeni Gwet’in somewhat anxious for their future but also determined to face it on their own 

terms. They envision a development and human activity in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area, which 

is grounded in an ecosystem‐based approach to land use, minimizing human impact on the land and 

waters, 

leaving it as much as possible as a self‐sustaining, wild environment with clean water, clean 

air and abundant fish and wildlife. 

According to ClimateBC projections, the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area (XGCA) can expect to see an 

average increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius and an increase of 104 mm of precipitation by 2050. This 

increase in temperature will be relatively uniform across the Chilko watershed, but precipitation 

will mostly increase in mountains at higher elevations. Most of this precipitation is snow, but will 

decrease to nearly 50 percent by 2050. Seasonally, most of the temperature increase will occur in 

the winter and spring and the precipitation increase during the fall and winter will become wetter. 

Summers 

will become drier. Finally, the higher the locations will experience the colder and wetter 

climate and the lower the locations will experience the warmer and dryer climate. 

In the short‐term, these changes in climate will likely increase the incidences of wild fires in the 

region, which may put the health, property, water, energy, cultural sites and livelihoods in the XGCA 

at risk. In the mid to long‐term, the warmer weather could also threaten water flows and water 

quality, especially in the dryer areas 

of the XGCA like the Chilcotin Plateau. This in turn could have 

serious negative ramifications for 

salmon stocks and other cool water fish stocks in the region. 

1 World Bank (2010). 

i

These longer‐term impacts could weaken wild food security and water security among the Xeni 

Gwet’in as well as jeopardize certain tourism and energy projects. At the same time, long‐term 

climate 

changes may not be all bad. A warmer climate could present new opportunities for 

agricultural growth, a longer tourist season and new eco‐forestry development in the XGCA. 

These projected changes are by no means guaranteed but they are probable enough that the Xeni 

Gwet’in would do well to prepare rather than do nothing. The best form of preparation in this case 

is to strengthen the resilience of the Xeni Gwet’in community, which entails strengthening key 

support systems (see table below). Key measures include strengthening emergency procedures 

associated with fire and flooding, protecting and conserving potable water supplies, protecting 

shelter and infrastructure; protecting, conserving and diversifying energy supplies and food 

supplies, diversifying livelihoods, and preserving traditional culture. However, perhaps the most 

effective way of building the resilience of the Xeni Gwet’in community is to protect and 

conserve the biodiversity of the XGCA. The land is integral to the Xeni Gwet’in culture and way of 

life and the healthier the land is, the healthier and more resilient the Xeni Gwet’in will be. 

Moreover, a healthy ecosystem will benefit not just the Xeni Gwet’in but all residents of the XGCA 

and 

other adjacent and downstream ecosystems and communities. 

Climate Adaptation Goals Objectives 

Biodiversity Protection and Conservation • Maintain the XGCA as an intact ecosystem 

• Conserve Wildlife and Wild Horses in the XGCA 

• Conserve Fish Stocks 

• Preserve Wild Plants & the Habitats in the XGCA 

Health and Safety Enhancements • Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from 

Wild Fires in the XGCA 

• Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from 

Floods in the XGCA 

Water Supply Protection and Conservation • Protect Key Potable Water Sources 

• Conserve Potable Water 

Food Supply Protection and Diversification • Conserve and Use Wild Food Sources 

• Increase Development and Diet Cultivated Food 

Sources 

• Increase Preservation of Wild and Cultivated 

Foods 

Shelter and Infrastructure Protection • Protect Shelter and Infrastructure 

• Reduce risk of Mould, Mildew and Rot 

Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and 

• Protect Existing Energy Sources 

Diversification 

• Strengthen Energy Conservation 

• Continue Energy Diversification 

Livelihood 

Diversification • Develop Nature‐based Aboriginal Tourism 

• Develop Eco‐forestry and Wood Products 

• Develop Natural/Organic Agriculture 

• Develop Other Adaptive Enterprise 

Opportunities 

Good Governance • Incorporate Climate Adaptation Strategies 

into 

Local Governance Objectives 

Cultural Preservation • Protect the Xeni Gwet’in Culture 

• Celebrate the Xeni Gwet’in Culture 

ii

1. INTRODUCTION 

1.1. Why Climate Change is Important for the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation 

Climate change may be the defining issue of our generation, since the challenge that it 

presents the world is so pervasive and complex. The mean surface temperature of Earth 

has increased an average 0.6 °C (Celsius) since the Industrial Revolution, and increasing 

scientific evidence suggests that this is due to the accumulation of greenhouse gasses 

(GHGs) in the atmosphere. 2 Historically, the Earth has been accustomed to experiencing 

wide‐spread severe environmental change and has always been able to adapt to these 

changes accordingly. Yet, the difference now is the speed and scale of the warming that is 

currently occurring. Most of this change has occurred within the past 30 to 40 years, and the 

rate of increase is accelerating. These rising temperatures will have significant impacts at a 

global scale and at local and regional levels. As a result, climate change will increasingly 

impact 

natural and human systems to alter the productivity, diversity and functions of 

many ecosystems and livelihoods globally. 

For resource‐dependent communities, such as most First Nations in Canada, climate change 

may increasingly compound existing vulnerabilities. Many First Nations communities are 

remote and/or tied closely to the land. Many are also weak economically and are still 

healing from colonization and the residential school system. As climate change accelerates 

and stresses the availability and quality of natural resources that these communities 

depend upon, it may affect their food and water security, their culture and their livelihoods. 

Limited resources and capacities to respond to stresses like floods, droughts and sea level 

rise, will increasingly constrain the ability of First Nations to meet basic needs, emerge from 

poverty and realize self‐government. There is, therefore, a need to reduce current 

vulnerabilities 

and enhance adaptive capacity of these communities so that they can face 

the longer‐term impacts of climate change with some confidence and on their own terms. 

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government, which is one of six Tsilhqot’in communities, 

occupies one of the last intact ecosystems on the east side of the Chilcotin range. Despite 

this relatively healthy ecosystem, the community is already facing changes in climate 

changes and impacts thereof including forest fires, drought, and fish stock decline. Forest 

fires, 

were particularly widespread in 2009, putting at risk personal property and 

livelihoods 

associated with tourism and ranching (key engines in the area). 

1.2. Why adaptation to climate change is necessary 

While reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and reversing climate change are 

important long‐term goals, many of the climate change impacts are already in evidence and 

will accelerate. The Xeni Gwet’in people, who are already vulnerable, will, therefore, need 

to prepare for the consequences of increasing global warming over the next 20‐50 years. 

The Xeni Gwet’in already have few resources to reduce the risk posed by climate change, 

such as drought and wild fires and long‐term changes to wildlife and fish stocks. Hence, 

adaptation preparations to cope 

with the existing and forthcoming risks are critical now. 


1

Adaptation to climate change is typically aimed at reducing vulnerability to its adverse 

effects through efforts to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience of a given ecosystem 

and/or community. Hence, in order for the Xeni Gwet’in to reduce their vulnerability to 

climate change, they must focus on building their adaptive capacity, while reducing their 

exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts. 

Box 

1: Key definitions associated with adaptation 

Impact: The way a human or natural system is affected by environmental change, including 

climate effects. 1 

Risk: In the context of environmental change, risk refers to the threat posed by a change, 

i.e. the probability of an adverse impact. Climate change risk is a function of the 

magnitude of an individual hazard and/or change and the degree of vulnerability of 

a system (or a community) to that hazard and/or change. Unless a system (or 

community) is vulnerable to the hazard, there is no risk. 1 

Coping: Short‐term actions to ward off immediate risk, rather than to adjust to continuous or 

permanent threats or changes – strategies usually rely on selling or using up assets 

or resources. Coping strategies are often the same set of measures that have been 

used before. When using coping strategies as the response to stress, it is possible 

that vulnerability will increase in the long term. 1 

Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic 

stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. 1 

Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and 

extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to 

cope with the consequences. 2 

Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse 

effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is 

a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a 

system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. 2 

Resilience: The ability of a community to resist, absorb, and recover from the effects of hazards 

in a timely and efficient manner, preserving or restoring its essential basic 

structures, functions and identity. 2 

t should be noted that the terms “adaptation” and “coping” are often used interchangeably. However, these 

wo terms are distinctly different, as demonstrated by the characteristics below. 3 

I 

t 

Coping Adaptation • Short‐term and immediate 

• Oriented towards longer term livelihoods 

• Oriented towards survival 

security 

• Not continuous 

• A continuous process 

• Motivated by crisis, reactive 

• Results are sustained 

• Often degrades resource base 

• Uses resource efficiently and sustainably 

• Prompted by a lack of alternatives 

• Involves planning 

• Combines old and new strategies 

and knowledge 

• Focused on finding alternatives 

Sources: 1: ICIMOD, 2009. Local Responses to Too Much and Too Little Water in the Greater Himalayan Region; 2: IPPC, 

2007 3: CARE 2009, Climate Vulnerability & Capacity Analysis Handbook. 

2

1.3. Overview of the Study 

Following brief introductory and methodology sections, the geographic and biogeoclimatic 

context to the XGCA are described in section 3. Section 4 follows with a detailed overview 

of historical and projected climate changes. Section 5 outlines the biophysical impacts of 

projected climate changes in the XGCA. Section 6 provides a description of key 

vulnerabilities in the Xeni Gwet’in community. Section 7 provides a detailed adaptation 

strategy 

to address key vulnerabilities and section 8 follows with an Adaptation and 

Monitoring 

Action Plan. 

2. METHODOLOGY 

2.1. Rationale of the Report 

This report is the result of Phase I of a Community‐Based Adaptation Project designed to 

help the Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government understand and incorporate the potential 

risks of climate change into current and future land use and livelihood planning efforts. The 

Xeni Gwet’in live in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area (XGCA), which is located within the 

southwest region of Cariboo‐Chilcotin Region of British Columbia. The project is envisioned 

as 

a two‐phase initiative: Phase I occurring between fall 2009 and spring 2010, and Phase II 

occurring between spring 2010 and spring 

2011, pending INAC approval. 

The broad goals of the project were to: 

• Provide a preliminary assessment of historical and possible future climate change 

in 

the XGCA. 

• Assess the biophysical impacts of these projected climate changes on the XGCA; 

• Assess the subsequent socio‐economic and cultural impacts on the livelihoods of Xeni 

Gwet’in First Nation; and 

• Identify adaptation measures for improving their livelihoods, while reducing their 

vulnerability to climate change. 

2.2. Objectives of the Study 

Specific project objectives were to: 

1. Raise awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in the Xeni Gwet’in 

community and region 

2. Estimate changes in climate in the XGCA in the medium term (to 2020) and longer 

term (to 2050) (with a focus on changes in temperature and rainfall) 

3. Determine the environmental (biophysical) impacts of project ed climate changes in 

the XGCA 

4. Carry out a Vulnerability Assessment to help determine necessary adaptation 

measures to increase resilience of the communities. 

3

5. Develop a realistic and practical Action Plan for adaptation strategies that can be 

implemented by the community over the next 20 years to improve the resilience of 

both the XGCA ecosystem and the Xeni Gwet’in community 

6. As part of this Action Plan, determine resources for adaptation measures 

7. Develop monitoring protocols to measure climate change impacts over the 

decades to 

come 

8. Develop partnerships with other communities and agencies in the region 

2.3. Approach 

The project involved 9 tasks: 

1. Project Initiation 

2. Climate Change Awareness 

Raising 

3. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts 

4. Vulnerability Assessment 

5. Definition of Community Vision 

6. Identification of Adaptation Solutions 

7. Preparation of a Community‐based 

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy & Action 

Plan 

8. Preparation of a Monitoring Plan 

9. Presentation of Draft Adaptation Strategy & Action Plan Strategy 

2.4. Framework for Assessment 

The study drew on several different conceptual frameworks. The main framework was 

provided by Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources’ (CIER) Community Adaptation 

Framework (manuals), which was complemented by the Climate Vulnerability and Capacity 

Analysis Methodology used by CARE International3 

and the Tyndall Group’s vulnerability 

assessment framework (WEHAB+) 4. Together, these chosen methodologies provided the 

background for a framework to analyze vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate 

change at the community level. They provided guidance and tools for participatory 

research, analysis and learning. 

2.5. Tools and Methods 

The tools and methods employed in this project were multifold, using a combination of 

community knowledge and scientific data and techniques to yield a better understanding 

about local climate changes and impacts (Table 1). Key informant interviews were used to 

collect information on historical climate trends, biophysical impacts, climate change 

vulnerabilities and adaptation solutions. Key informant interviews were conducted 

primarily with community elders but also with other members, including Chief and Council. 

The key informant interviews and associated discussions provided opportunities to link 

community knowledge with available scientific information on climate change. This served 

to honour local knowledge of 

the land and the climate, it helped local stakeholders 

3 CARE 2009, Climate Vulnerability & Capacity Analysis Handbook. 

4 Surviving Climate Change in Small Islands, Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research 

4

understand the implications of climate change and it also served to check the validity of 

scientific 

conclusions. 

Table 1: List of Study Parameters and Tools 

Assessment Parameters Tools 

1. Historical trend analysis of climate 

changes and variability 

Key informants interviews, data 

2. Future climate change and 

variability 

projection 

Computer modeling 

3. Climate Impact analysis Professional estimations, Literature review, BEC 

modeling 

4. Vulnerability Assessment Literature review, Key informant interviews 

5. Adaptation strategies Key informant interviews, Literature review 

Secondary information in the form of historical climate data was also used to develop a 

climate baseline for the study. Literature surveys and professional opinions were used to 

inform estimates regarding projected biophysical impacts, climate vulnerabilities and 

adaptation strategies. And computer modeling was used to develop climate projections. 

Except for the climate modeling, much of the analysis in the report was qualitative. This 

was due to the short time frame and modest budget of the project as well as the rather 

limited state of climate impact modeling at the regional and local level. 

Climate Projections 

Climatic data have been produced by the computer program ClimateBC 5, which offers high 

resolution spatial climate data for current and future climate change scenarios. This is 

particularly useful for remote regions like the XGCA. Recent climatic variables have been 

averaged spatially (i.e. with a resolution of roughly 6 km 2) throughout the XGCA and 

temporally for the periods 1961 – 1990 (which we consider as representative of present 

climate). Future climate projections are based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model 

version 2 (CGCM2) for two future emission scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The A1F1 emission (or “worst case”) scenario describes a 

future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in the mid‐ 

century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient 

technologies with an emphasis on fossil fuel energy sources. The B2 emission (or “best 

case”) scenario describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, 

social, and environmental sustainability. Both emission scenarios are projected for the 

2020’s (i.e., 2020 – 2029) and 2050’s (i.e., 2050 – 2059). In addition, both emission 

scenarios depict the same general trend; however, the intensity or scale of the trend is 

different. 

Wildlife & Wild Horse Impacts 

5 See: http://www.genetics.forestry.ubc.ca/cfcg/climate‐models.html 

5

Conclusions concerning the impact of climate change on XGCA wildlife and wild horses are 

based on the best information available, including a partial search of the scientific literature, 

extensive grizzly bear, wildlife and wild horse habitat surveys in the XGCA, discussions with 

elders, 

local ranchers and others as well as field observations dating back to the first 

intensive wildlife surveys in 2001. 

Due to the short time frame of this project and the large number of plant and animal species 

in the XGCA ecosystem, the approach in this section was to select a small number of tree and 

habitat types that are known to be important to a range of species and use these as well as a 

small number of animal species as “climate change indicators”. For plants and habitats, a 

fair amount of literature was available to draw upon. For wildlife species, resiliency 

assessments were based on the types of overall North American distribution and range of 

habitats 

that some of the animals occupy today, and whether the wildlife are specialists or 

generalists 

in terms of habitat ranges. 

Forest and Vegetation Impacts 

Conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on the XGCA forests and vegetation are 

based on the specific climate projections for each of the key Biogeoclimatic Ecological 

Classification (BEC) zones of the XGCA (discussed in section 4.2). The BEC system uses 

vegetation, soils, and topography to infer the regional climate of a geographic area. Areas of 

relatively uniform climate are called biogeoclimatic units, where climate refers to the 

regional climate that influences ecosystems over an extended period of time. The BEC unit 

can be expressed as statistics derived from normals of precipitation and temperature6 The 

ClimateBC model was used to forecast potential changes to climatic variables in the medium 

term (2020 and 2050). The climate projections based on the worst case emissions (A1F1) 

scenario were used to describe possible effects on the forests of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory. 

The projected climate variable changes by 2020 and 2050 are presented along with climate 

normals (1960‐1999) by BEC subzone. Although the model predicts changes to climate 

envelopes as classified by the BEC system, the changes do not represent changes to the 

forest 

ecosystem itself. Potential changes to the forest are inferred with the help of expert 

opinion 

and literature reviews7. 

Water Resource Impacts 

Conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on XGCA water resources have been 

developed after extensive literature reviews, particularly recent hydrological research 

conducting 

by the Pacific Climate Impact Consortium. In addition to the literature reviews, 

field 

observations and water sampling data since 2006 are consulted to establish a baseline. 

Fishery Resource Impacts 

Conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on XGCA fishery resources have been 

developed through extensive literature research. Additionally, the author’s observations are 

based on a number of fishery research projects undertaken in the XGCA on behalf of the 

6 Downloaded from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/becweb/system/how/index.html. See Appendix 

2 for a more detailed description of the BEC system. 

7 This simplistic approach was taken due to the budget constraints of this project. Models are now 

being developed that will project effects of climate change on vegetation (Campbell et al. 2009). 

6

Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government and the Chilko Resorts and Community Association. 

All field sampling and observations for these projects were completed based on Resource 

Inventories Standards Committee (RISC) protocols. This research provided reliable baseline 

information for fishery resources in the XGCA. 

2.6. Data Analysis 

The climate projection data were generated by using the ClimateBC model, which offers 

high resolution spatial climate data for current and future climate change scenarios. 8 This 

program 

and its approach is particularly useful for generating climatic data for remote 

regions like the XGCA. 

One challenge the team faced in generating climate projection data is that currently it is 

only possible to get climate information within the Chilko Watershed and not for the whole 

XGCA. To overcome this obstacle, points were selected at set intervals on four transects 

(along a north to south direction) in the Chilko Watershed. Based on this data, a summary 

was prepared on how the climate in the larger area is projected to change. More 

specifically, recent climatic variables were averaged spatially (i.e. with a resolution of 

roughly 6 km 2) throughout the Chilko River watershed and temporally for the periods 1961 

– 1990 (which is generally considered as a valid proxy representative of present climate). 

2.7. Community Engagement 

The Xeni Gwet’in community was involved in every stage of 

the project: 

Project supervision: A local Steering Committee was established to guide the planning 

process and community extension. Nine members of the community were selected, 

including the Chief, four staff members, one elder and three members of the community 

known for their experience of the land. The committee met five times over the course of the 

project 

duration and acted as spokespersons in the community and at planned events. 

Another community member was hired 

to assist in coordinating project activities. 

Community consultation process: General community feedback was collected through 4 

public community meetings, with a special emphasis on collecting elder feedback. Three 

school events were hosted during which the project team engaged the youth in the local 

school to raise the awareness of climate change and present their ideas for adaptation 

solutions to the community. Twenty‐eight key informant interviews were conducted to 

learn about the Xeni Gwet’in knowledge of the land and weather. Four members of the 

community 

were employed to carry out these interviews. All interviews and community 

m eetings were held in the Nemiah Valley within the XGCA. 

Progress reporting: Regular progress reports, final findings and results of the study were 

communicated at the Steering Committee meetings and at a community luncheon at the end 

of the project. 

8 For details, please see: http://www.genetics.forestry.ubc.ca/cfcg/climate‐models.html) and Wang and others 

(2006). 

7

Awareness raising and capacity building: Capacity was built and awareness increased of 

climate change risks and vulnerabilities by involving community members in the 

supervision of the project (through the steering committee), engaging the school and hiring 

of several community members to lead part of the research and consultation. 

3. BACKGROUND 

9 

3.1. Description of the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 

The Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area (XGCA) ‐ also referred to as the Chilko River Watershed 

Area by some10 ‐ is the traditional Tsilhqot’in territory of the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation 

(hereafter referred to as XGCA). It encompasses a relatively isolated and underdeveloped 

part of the Chilko Forest Region in British Columbia, and is located 160 km by air or 250 km 

by road southwest of Williams Lake. The area can be described as the drainage of Chilko 

Lake, 

Chilko River, and includes the Taseko Lake and Taseko river system, along with the 

Tsuniah, 

Nemiah, and Elkin Valleys (Figure 1). 

Figure 1: Map of Chilcotin 

Source: Canadian Geographic 

Comprehensive Development Plan (2009). 

9 Ecolibrio (2009); The Xeni Gwet’in 

10 See Hammond and others (2004). 

8

The study area includes the Potato Range, Choelquoit Lake Basin, the upper Chilko River, 

the Tsuniah Range, and portions of the Brittany Triangle and all of the lands in and adjacent 

to Ts’yl‐os Provincial Park and to the east of Taseko Lake (Figure 2). It also encompasses 

portions of three of British Columbia’s major landscapes, namely the Chilcotin Plateau, the 

Chilcotin Ranges, and the Pacific Coast Range. Much of the study area is undisturbed by 

industrial development and remains in a natural state. This “natural state” has been 

modified carefully by Xeni Gwet’in management systems for thousands of years. 11 

Figure 2: Map of XGCA 

11 Hammond and others (2004). 

9

3.2. Geography 

The study area is located within two of the five major physiographic regions12 of British 

Columbia: The Coast Mountains and The Interior Plateau. The Coast Mountains and Interior 

Plateau are further subdivided into smaller more uniform physiographic regions. The 

southerly two‐thirds of the study 

area is within the subdivision of the Coast Mountains unit 

12 Physiography refers to the physical geography of the land, including the terrain type, elevation, slope position, 

slope length, slope gradient (steepness), and orientation with respect to solar radiation (aspect). Slope length, 

slope gradient, and position along the slope also influence soil stability and ecological sensitivity to disturbance 

(source: Hammond and others (2009), p.13). 

10

known as the Chilcotin Ranges. The northerly one‐third of the study area is found within a 

part of the Interior Plateau known as the Chilcotin Plateau. 13 

The Chilcotin Ranges Region 

The Chilcotin Ranges include the Taseko Lakes, Nemiah Valley, Tsuniah Lake, and the Potato 

Range. The Chilcotin Ranges consist of gently sloping uplands, rounded mountain summits, 

and broad, flat‐bottom valleys among the mountain ranges. The mountains are less rugged 

than those of the Pacific Ranges to the southwest and are generally no higher than 2700 

metres in elevation. They show the effects of recent alpine glaciation as well as the effects of 

continental glaciation by the Cordilleran Ice Sheet during the last ice age. No major glaciers 

exist in the Chilcotin Ranges at this time, but numerous small isolated icefields are found in 

cirques in the higher alpine areas. The remnant icefields are associated with steep cirque 

headwalls, small glacial lakes, and terminal and lateral moraines formed of locally derived 

material. 

The Chilcotin Plateau Region 

The 

Chilcotin Plateau landscape includes the areas north of Choelquoit Lake, and north of a 

line extending from the north end of Chilko Lake to the north end of Taseko Lake. 

The Chilcotin Plateau portion of the study area features level to gently rolling terrain, with 

an elevation between 1000 and 1500 metres. The upland portion of the Plateau is underlain 

by flat‐lying bedrock and covered by glacial deposits. Subtle depressions and meandering 

streams on the undulating terrain have created many lakes and wetland complexes. Isolated 

low, 

rounded mountains and ridges of erosion‐resistant rock rise above the general level of 

the Plateau to over 2000 metres elevation. 

The Brittany Triangle is bounded by deeply incised, steep‐sided valleys that developed as 

the Chilko River and the Taseko River down cut through the Plateau during the post‐glacial 

melt period. The rivers currently occupy channels that are 100‐200 metres lower than the 

Plateau surface. The Elkin Creek‐Elkin Lake‐Vedan Lake system occupies another deeply 

incised valley, which was likely down cut during the post‐glacial melt but which no longer 

contains 

a major river system. Steep scarp slopes along the deeply incised rivers and creek 

valleys 

are unstable and susceptible to mass wasting and slope failures14 

3.3. Socio‐economic Context 

15 

The total population of the XGCA is approximately 500 people; 375 are Xeni Gwet’in and 

125 are non‐indigenous. The area does not contain any formally incorporated communities 

but does contain a number of informal hamlets, such as north Chilko, Tsuniah, Taseko and 

Nemiah 

Valley. The people who comprise these communities are to a large extent self‐ 

reliant and have a long 

history of cooperation with each other to sustain their way of life. 



15 This section is based on Ecolibrio (2009, 7‐10) and Hammond and others, (2004, pp.44‐46). 

11

The XGCA is a remote, wilderness area, where the rural inhabitants live very disbursed. The 

highest concentration of the people in the XGCA is in the Nemiah Valley, which is located 

196.8 kilometres from the nearest city, Williams Lake, BC about a 3 hour drive southwest. 

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation Government office is located there and maintains isolation 

status, which means they provide their own public works services such as electricity, 

heating, community water supply and communication systems. There is a post office, a gas 

bar/convenience store, visitor information services centre, a laundromat/internet facility, 

Charlene 

William’s Daycare and immersion program, Naghtaneqed Elementary/Junior 

Secondary School, a health clinic and rodeo grounds. 

The Xeni Gwet’in culture remains closely linked to the land. During the summer months the 

Xeni Gwet’in use the lakes and rivers throughout the XGCA to catch and dry fish. In addition, 

many still rely upon wild meat, including moose and deer. Moreover, according to two 

separate Tourism Strategies developed for the community, the primary economic activities 

for 

the Xeni Gwet’in today are ranching and involvement in tourism through local non‐ 

native 

wilderness tourism operators. 

4. Climate Change in the Xeni Caretaker Area: Past Trends and 

Future Projections 

This section provides an overview of the climate in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin region, and 

wherever possible the specific climate for the XGCA. The section first outlines the general 

climate in the study area, as determined by physiographic features (4.1). Sub‐section 4.2 

then examines historical climate trends, which combines an assessment of scientific 

baseline data for the 1961‐1990 period (4.2.1), which are complemented by community 

anecdotes gathered through a key informant survey (4.2.2) follows with a projection of 

possible future climates. 

4.1. General Climate 

As described by Sten and Coupe (1997) and Hammond and others (2004), the climate of the 

study area is largely determined by the physiographic 16 features of the region. 

Physiography refers to the physical geography of the land, including the terrain type, 

elevation, slope position, slope length, slope gradient (steepness), and orientation with 

respect to solar radiation (aspect). 17 One key relationship is the effect of these factors on 

principle air flow patterns. The latter include warm moist Pacific air from the west, and cold 

dry Arctic air from the north. Because the study area is located on the leeward side of the 

Coast Mountain Range, the climate is more strongly influenced by Arctic air. The moist 

Pacific air has a limited effect on the area. The following climate summary is from 

Hammond and others (2004): 18 

• 

The Chilcotin Plateau portion of the study area has a typical continental climate 

characterized by cold winters 

and cool summers. The relatively high elevation of the 

16 Slope length, slope gradient, 

and position along the slope also influence soil stability and ecological sensitivity 

to disturbance (source: Hammond and others 

(2009), p.13). 

17 Sten and Coupe (1997). 

18 See Hammond and others (2004), p. 19. 

12

Plateau (between 1000 and 1500 metres) contributes to the cold climate. As a result, the 

growing season is short, and frost can occur at any time of the year at all elevations. The 

Plateau is also strongly affected by the Coast Mountains rainshadow, which results in very 

dry conditions, including summer moisture deficits – a significant factor effecting soil and 

plant productivity. The season of moisture deficit can be from May to September, which 

includes most of the growing season. The dry conditions also result in frequent wildfires 

across the landscape of the Plateau. 

• The Chilcotin Ranges part of the study area also has a dry, continental climate in the 

rainshadow of the Coast Mountains, but receives more precipitation than the Chilcotin 

Plateau landscape due to moist, coastal air pushing through the lower mountain passes. 

Summer moisture deficits are lower and the season of deficit is shorter than in the 

Chilcotin Plateau. However, the colder temperatures in this area significantly limit plant 

growth, with similar overall effects as the moisture deficits on the Plateau. 

The strong climatic gradient that occurs from the moist coastal mountains to the dry 

Chilcotin Plateau results in a diversity of ecosystems, and plant and animal life. The study 

area includes some of the coldest and driest forested landscapes in the province. 

4.2. Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones 

Steen and Coupe (1997) describe the cold, dry climate of the XGCA in their discussion of 

biogeoclimatic subzones in the Cariboo Forest Region. The biogeoclimatic classification 

system groups forests in British Columbia into areas of broadly uniform climate, geology, 

and biology. The following comments are drawn from the work of Steen and Coupe, as 

extracted 

by Hammond and others (2004), and highlight the exceptionally harsh climate of 

the 

study area 

(Figure 3): 

• The Very Dry Very Cold Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir subzone (ESSFxv) has a 

very cold, very dry climate. Although no climatic data is available, the vegetation 

indicates that the ESSFxv is probably the driest area of the ESSF zone in British 

Columbia. Due to relatively low humidity and clear skies, 

overnight radiation cooling 

is intense, and frosts occur very frequently during the growing season. 

• The Very Dry Very Cold Montane Spruce subzone (MSxv) is the coldest and driest 

Montane Spruce subzone in British Columbia, and is one of the least productive 

biogeoclimatic units for tree growth. Winters are cold and summers are cool with 

frequent growing‐season frost. 

13

Figure 3: XGCA BEC Zones 

14

• In general, the SubBoreal PineSpruce zone (SBPS) has cold, dry winters and cool, 

dry summers. Substantial moisture deficits are normal during the middle and latter 

parts of the growing season. The low precipitation, dry air, and clear skies in the Coast 

Mountains rainshadow result in significant night‐time radiation cooling and low 

overnight temperatures. Frost can occur at any time of the year, especially in low‐ 

lying areas. The SBPS zone is one of the least productive areas for tree growth in the 

region, outside of the Bunch Grass and Arctic Tundra 

zones which are generally 

considered “non‐forested.” 

• The Very Dry Cold SubBoreal PineSpruce subzone (SBPSxc) occurs in the southern 

and western parts of the SBPS zone in the study area. This subzone is strongly 

affected by the Coast Mountains rainshadow, and the SBPSxc has the lowest annual 

precipitation of the SBPS subzones. Vegetation production and soil development are 

severely limited by the cold, very dry climate. 

• The Dry Cool Interior Douglasfir subzone – Chilcotin variant (IDFdk4) is the 

coldest biogeoclimatic unit of the IDF zone in British Columbia and is climatically 

transitional from the generally warmer portions of the IDF zone to the cold, dry SBPS 

zone. 

Areas that are colder or drier than the pine and spruce forests of the Chilcotin Plateau are 

generally not forested. Steen and Coupe (1997) comment that the total annual precipitation 

near Tatla Lake at the western part of the Plateau is only 338 mm. For comparison, any 

region that receives less than 250 mm of precipitation annually is generally defined as a 

desert. Moist forested areas in the Cariboo region, such as the Interior Cedar‐Hemlock Zone 

to the east, receive 700 to 800 mm of precipitation annually while some of the wetter areas 

of the Coast Mountains to the west receive in excess of 2500 mm of precipitation per year 

4.3. Historical Climate Trends 

Definition of scientific baseline based on 19611990 Station Climatology Data 19 

Long‐term climate trends show that considerable warming has taken place in the Cariboo‐ 

Chilcotin and surrounding areas over the last century. A recent report from the Pacific 

Climate Impacts Consortium 20 shows that during this time period, the mean annual 

temperature has increased about 1°Celsius in the region. Even though data show a clear 

warming trend, there are large year‐to‐year variations in temperature, with ENSO climatic 

cycles having had a strong impact on temperature. Historical changes in precipitation are 

less clear and consistent than for temperature. What is certain, however, is that historical 

changes in temperature have already had real implications for important hydrological 

variables, including snow accumulation and timing of snow melt. In addition, divergences in 

temperature and precipitation from average conditions due to natural cycles and climate 

change have affected ecosystems and resource management over the past century in this 

region. 

The following provides a baseline for climate information by using data for the 1961‐1990 

period. Note that the 1961‐1990 climate period is used as a baseline against which the 

climate change projections shown 

in section 4.4 are compared. Tables 2 and 3 show 

baseline 

temperature and precipitation data for the Tatlayoko Lake, which is the weather 

19 The information in this section is extracted from Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) 2008. 

20 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), 2008, p.30. 

15

station closest to the Study Area with longer‐term historical climate data. While this station 

alone cannot adequately represent the diversity of the varied climate conditions found 

within the Study Area, it does provide a reference point to examine the mean and variability 

of 

seasonal climate during the baseline period. This is important as both the mean and 

variability of seasonal temperatures affect many ecological and hydrological processes. 

Table 2 shows that the mean annual and maximum winter temperatures are less than 0°C 

for Tatlayoko Lake. The figures also reveal that the variability (standard deviation) of 

minimum, maximum and mean temperatures is much higher in winter than in summer. 

Finally, 

the table highlights that minimum temperatures in winter are more variable than 

maximum 

temperatures while the opposite is true in summer. 

Table 2: 19611990 Baseline temperature data for Tatlayoko Lake Weather Station 

Tatlayoko 

Lake 

1088010 

Min 

Temp 

( o C) 

Annual Winter Summ er 

Mean 

Temp 

( o C) 

Max 

Temp 

( o C) 

Min 

Temp 

( o C) 

Mean 

Temp 

( o C) 

Max 

Temp 

( o C) 

Min 

Temp 

( o C) 

Mean 

Temp 

( o C) 

Max 

Temp 

Mean ‐3.0 3.9 10.8 ‐11.1 ‐5.8 ‐0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 

St 

dev 

Source: PCIC 2008 

Note – The station elevation is 870m 

( o C) 

0.7 0.6 0.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 7.9 14.6 21.2 

While temperature is a vital climate determinant, so is precipitation. In addition to the total 

precipitation, the proportion that falls as snow, the timing of snow melt and the variation in 

snow depth between years all have important ecological and hydrological implications and 

are likely to be affected by climate change. During the 1961‐1990 baseline period, the 

proportion of total precipitation from snowfall was 27% at Tatlayoko Lake. As indicated by 

the coefficients of variation (Cf var), snowfall varies more from year to year relative to the 

mean than annual precipitation. Overall, precipitation is relatively low compared to other 

areas in BC. 

Table 3: 19611990 baseline precipitation and snow depth for Tatlayoko Lake 

Weather Station 

Tatlayoko 

Lake 

Precipitation 

(mm) 

Annual 

Rainfall (mm) Snowfall (mm) 

Mean 438.9 317.0 121.9 

St Dev 97.6 99.3 49.1 

Cf var 0.2 0.3 0.4 

Source: PCIC 2008 

Note: St. Dev = standard deviation; Cf Var = coefficient of variation 

16

Xeni Gwet’in anecdotal information about past and present seasonal climate 

To complement the scientific climate data, primary data and qualitative information was 

acquired through key informant surveys, which sought to capture community observations 

on past and current climatic changes. Twenty‐seven individuals were interviewed by four 

community 

members. The individuals surveyed included an equal amount of men and 

women but a high proportion of elders in order to gain a better historical perspective. 

Table 4 sums up the main responses from the Xeni community members, in response to a 

question on how the seasons have changed climate‐wise between now and their childhood. 

Since the majority of the interviewees have lived between 40‐60 years in the study area, 

their responses provided a rich amount of information. 

Table 4: Seasonal climate observations – past and present 

Summer Weather 

About temperature: 

• Summers used to be hot – but now they are even 

hotter, often 100 degrees and above. 

• Summers are longer now than they used to be. 

• Summers also used to have a mix of hot and cooler weather, but now they are mostly hot 

days. 

About precipitation: 

• Now the summers are drier, as there is much less rain than in the past. 

• As a result, there are more droughts in the area now than before. 

• Hail and lightning storms are not as common as they were. 

Noticeable signs of weather changes: 

• In the past it would be green everywhere and there would be lots of water in the lakes 

during the summers. 

• Now nothing seems to grow and there is a lot less hay than there used to be. 

Observations – Fall Weather 


• The fall weather is warmer than it used to be. 


• There used to be a lot of rain and thunder during the fall, especially during the hay season, 

but now there is less. 

• The fall season has gotten shorter, as snow arrives earlier than it used to. 

• Falls used to be very windy, but now there is less wind – only rain and warm air. 


• Before deer were fat in the fall after summer grazing, but now the deer are skinny, as there 

is not enough grass for their summer grazing. 

Winter Weather 


• Winters used to be a lot colder than they are now, as it was normal to have temperatures 

of ‐40 degrees for long periods of time. 


17

• Overall: Winter weather has gotten very unpredictable – it now seems 

that it can rain or 

snow any time. 

• There used to be a lot more snow during 

winters than there is now. 

• The winter season has gotten shorter. 

• There used to be a lot more wind chills than there are now. 


• While there used to be thick ice on most water bodies, now there is a lot less ice. For 

example, Chilko Lake no longer freezes over during the winters 


Spring Weather 

• Spring used to arrive earlier, but now the season has gotten shorter, but colder 


• While it used to still snow in the Spring, now snow does not melt until June or July and it is 

cold until July 

• Now Springs have gotten more windy and there are lots of rain 

4.4. Climate Projections 

Temperature 

Figure 4 shows a general warming trend for mean annual temperature (MAT) throughout 

the following periods: (a) 1961 – 1990, (b) A1F1 2020’s, and (c) A1F1 2050’s. By mean 

annual temperature we refer to the average of hot and cold extremes of temperature taken 

every day throughout the course of a year. In recent history (1961 – 1990), if we were to 

average out the temperatures for the whole area, MAT would have been 0.07 °C. The A1F1 

scenario predicts a warming of 1.11 °C and 2.61°C for the 2020’s and 2050’s, respectively. 

That means that in 

only ten years (between now and 2020), the average temperature will 

Figure 4: Mean annual temperature for the Chilko River watershed throughout 

following periods: a) 19611990, b) 2020’s A1F1 scenario, and c) 2050’s 

A1F1 scenario. 

18

Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC 

increase by 0.4 degrees Celsius and with yet another 2.54 degrees Celsius in another 40 

years. Figure 4b and 1c illustrates that the colder temperatures will be experienced in the 

mountains, whereas warmer temperatures will occur in the lower areas. 

To put this figure in perspective, worldwide, a 2 degree increase is expected to increase sea 

level rise 0.5 to 2 metres by the year 2100 from the melting of ice caps in west Antarctica 

and Greenland. As a result, coastal areas where hundreds of millions of people currently live 

will 

get flooded. The B2 scenario predicts a more moderate warming of 1.02 °C and 1.72 °C 

for the 2020’s and 205 0’s, 

respectively. 

It is difficult to relate to the average weather that takes place across the whole XGCA. To 

provide a perspective of how varied the MAT will be even in a relatively small area like the 

XGCA when compared to the whole Cariboo‐Chilcotin Area, the study prepared a graph that 

compares the temperature of the XGCA to the temperatures expected at the Xeni Gwet’in 

Government office in the Nemiah Valley. Figure 5 shows that for each of the time frames, the 

Xeni Gwet’in Government office is about 1 degree warmer than the average throughout the 

XGCA. This is a result stemming from the fact that the office is in the valley. For both A1F1 

and B2 scenarios, temperatures increases will be relatively consistent over the landscape. 

Figure 5: Comparison of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT). 

19

Source: 

Theo Mlynowski, UNBC 

Precipitation 

Similar to temperature, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) – which concerns both rain and 

snow – is the average of wet and dry extremes measured every day throughout the course 

of a year. Figure 6 shows a general increase of MAP throughout the following periods: (a) 

1961 – 1990, (b) A1F1 2020’s, and (c) A1F1 2050’s. 

At present, the MAP for the period 1961‐1990 for the XGCA is 901‐mm. Figure 5 illustrates 

that the bulk of the precipitation happens in the mountains, whereas the low lying areas of 

the territory are a bit dryer. Map 6b and 6c show that the future A1F1 scenario predicts an 

increase in annual precipitation of 44‐mm and 104‐mm for the 2020’s and 2050’s, 

respectively. In comparison, the B2 scenario (not shown in the Figure) predicts a slightly 

drier future with an increase in precipitation of 21‐mm and 36‐mm for the 2020’s and 

2050’s, 

respectively. A large portion of the increase in precipitation will take place in the 

mountains, as illustrated by the dark blue patterns. 

<strong>From</strong> the effects of a warmer climate, the percent of precipitation in the form of snow is 

expected to decrease. Throughout the period 1961 – 1990, roughly 60 % of precipitation 

was snow. The A1F1 scenario predicts a decrease to 57% by the 2020’s, and 52% by the 

2050’s. Likewise, the B2 scenario predicts a decrease to 58% by the 2020’s and 56% by the 

2050’s. 

Figure 6: Mean annual precipitation for the Chilko River watershed throughout the 

following 19611990. Change in mean annual precipitation (in reference to 

the 1961 – 1990 values) is shown for b) 2020’s A1F1 scenario, and c) 2050’s 

A1F1 scenario. 


As with temperature above, the study prepared a graph that compares the precipitation 

level of the Chilko Watershed to the one expected at the Xeni Gwet’in Government office. 

20

Figure 

7 shows that for each of the time frames, the Xeni Gwet’in Government office gets 

about 

350 m less rain than the average across the Chilko Watershed. 

21

Figure 7: Comparison of Mean Annual Precipitation (MAT). 

Impact on seasons from changes in temperature and precipitation 

A fundamental question to ask is how the above changes in temperature and precipitation 

will change throughout the seasons. According to the projections, over the next 40 years, 

the largest temperature increase will be in the spring, followed by winter. Summer and fall 

will experience a slightly lesser temperature increase. In Table 5, the change in temperature 

between the normal period (the current situation) and the IPCC scenarios is shown by the 

trend 

which is marked by W or C (Warmer or Colder), and + or – (more than average or 

less‐than‐average). 

Table 5: The mean temperature for each IPCC Scenario shown by season. 

Mean Temperature 

Winter Spring Summer Autumn 

Scenario ◦C Trend ◦C Trend ◦C Trend ◦C Trend Normal 1961 1990 ‐9.12 ‐ ‐0.37 ‐ 9.07 ‐ 0.72 ‐ 

A1F1 2020's ‐8.01 W+ 0.99 W+ 10.09 W‐ 1.64 W‐ 

A1F1 2050's ‐6.51 W‐ 2.86 W+ 11.46 W‐ 2.92 W‐ 

B2 2020's ‐8.08 W+ 0.86 W+ 10.08 W‐ 1.53 W‐ 

B2 2050's ‐7.39 W+ 1.70 W+ 10.77 W‐ 2.10 W‐ 

Source: 

Theo Mlynowski, UNBC 

22

The pattern of future precipitation will be fairly different. Most precipitation will occur in 

the winter and fall, whereas the spring will undergo very little change and summers will 

become even drier than at present for both the 2020’s and 2050’s. Table 6 shows the 

change in precipitation between the normal period (current situation) and the future IPCC 

scenarios. 

The change marked by W or D (Wetter or Drier), and + or – (more than average 

or 

less‐than‐average). 

Table 6: The mean precipitation for each IPCC Scenario shown by season. 

Mean Precipitation 

Winter Spring Summer Autumn 

Scenario ◦C Trend ◦C Trend ◦C Trend ◦C 

Normal 1961 1990 313.58 ‐ 153.76 ‐ 151.29 ‐ 282.37 ‐ 

Tren 

d 

A1F1 2020's 343.43 W+ 153.98 W‐ 146.46 D‐ 300.91 W+ 

A1F1 2050's 384.57 W+ 154.07 W‐ 139.75 D‐ 326.53 W+ 

B2 2020's 336.57 W+ 154.95 W‐ 145.35 D‐ 285.07 W‐ 

B2 2050's 352.85 W+ 155.25 W‐ 141.24 D‐ 287.98 W‐ 


It should be noted that the amount of snow the XGCA will receive will also very likely 

change. 

Currently about 60 percent of the precipitation is in the form of snow. By 2020, this 

amount will decrease to about 57 percent, and further decrease to only 52 percent by 2050. 

In summary, over the course of the next 40 years, the XGCA can expect to see an average 

increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius and an increase of 104 mm of precipitation. This increase in 

temperature will be relatively uniform across the XGCA, but precipitation will mostly 

increase at higher elevations. Most of this precipitation is snow, but will decrease to nearly 

50 percent by 2050. Seasonally, most of the temperature increase will occur in the winter 

and spring, whereas the fall and winter will become wetter and the summer will become 

drier. Finally, due to the general effect of mountains on climate, the findings confirm that 

the higher the location, the colder and wetter the future climate will be. Likewise, the lower 

the location, the warmer and dryer it will become. 

5. Current and Projected Biophysical Impacts 

5.1. Water Resources 

This section provides a summary of the larger background report on Climate Impacts on 

XGCA Water Resources prepared by Ecolibrio (see Annex 1). This section provides an 

assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources in the Xeni 

23

Gwet’in Territory. It should be noted that this section is based on a literature review that 

summarizes previous studies from knowledgeable individuals and institutions familiar with 

the climate change impacts on water resources and/or the XGCA. More specifically, this 

section is built on previous work carried out and reflected in the following four 

reports/articles: (i) A recent report by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) 

(revised 2009); (ii) an older report by Rood and Hamilton (1995); (iii) a report by 

Hammond and others (2004); and (vi) groundwater research carried out by Diana M. Allen 

and 

others, as documented in D. Allen (2009). 21 Other sources are listed, whenever they 

have 

been used to complement the main findings of these four reports. 

Projected Climate Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources 

Projections of future climate change are still an uncertain science, due to limitations in 

existing models and insufficient, longer‐term data set. There is no doubt, however, that 

continuous climate change will impact the water resources within the XGCA, as it already is 

and will continue to impact the entire hydrological system in the Study Area. In particular, 

climate change will influence temperature as well as the timing, amount and form of 

precipitation. As a result, there will be shifts in streamflows and seasonal transitions, earlier 

spring runoffs, and increasing river temperatures. 23 Evaporation and soil moisture will be 

affected as well (see box 1). During the cold months of the year, temperature influences the 

balance between cryospheric24 regimes (which are long‐term storage) and rainfall (which 

results in a short‐term response in streamflow) even before considering climate change. 

When adding climate change, projected changes in temperature will be especially critical for 

the 

water resources in the XGCA, given that temperature controls the storage of snowfall in 

the 

wet/cold season for subsequent use in the dry/warm season. 

Box 1: Climate Change’s Impact on Soil Moisture and Surface Evaporation 

Soil moisture acts as a water reserve for vegetation and agriculture. It integrates inputs from rain, 

snowmelt, and losses due to evaporation, interception, surface runoff, and drainage (base flow). 

Surface evaporation is a critical hydrological feedback from the earth’s surface into the 

atmosphere that has, itself, been modified by global climate change. Evaporation depends in part on 

conditions of soil moisture, solar radiation, and ground cover. Each process influences soil 

moisture with a different temporal signature and affects the timing of streamflow parameters. 

Finally, changes in soil moisture determine the fraction of precipitation and snowmelt that is 

released to streams as runoff. Some measurements have been made in BC, but projections for the 

2050s require a comprehensive hydrologic model that would determine impacts on agriculture and 

forestry, and feedbacks within the hydrologic system. Current projections of changes in soil 

moisture have been made only for the Columbia Basin. 

Source: PCIC (2007/revised 2009, p.68) 

Projected changes in annual precipitation are small and somewhat uncertain. However, 

these projected changes become fractionally large, when they concern climatologically dry 

regions, such as a significant part of the Chilcotin Plateau, which make up a large part of the 

21 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) 

(2007/revised 2009). 

22 This section primarily draws from PCIC (2007/revised 2009). 

23 Walker, I.J. and Sydneysmith, R. (2008). 

24 The cryosphere describes the portions of the Earth where water is in solid form, such as sea ice, lake ice, river 

ice, snow cover, glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and frozen ground (which includes permafrost) (Source: 

Wikipedia). 

22 

24

XGCA. The importance of this change does not so much refer to changes in the amount of 

rainfall, but more to a change in the ratio between rainfall and snow. In other words, the 

transition from snow to rain during the colder months (as they will become warmer) may 

cause complex changes in cryospheric regimes (glaciers, snowpack, lake ice) that may lead 

to 

subsequent changes in operation of reservoirs and in the seasonal shifts in timing of 

streamflow. 

The rest of this section provides a summary of the results of current research to date 

concerning how climate impacts on snowpack, glaciers, streamflows and groundwater will 

increasingly affect the pristine water resources of the XGCA. This section highlights how the 

hydrology, and hence the water resources in the XGCA, are strongly influenced by 

precipitation and temperature. For instance, the amount of precipitation falling as snow 

versus rain, the amount of evapo‐transpiration, the sustainability of glacial inputs to rivers 

and the timing of runoff are all potential impacts of climate change. 25 

Snowpack 26 

Snowpack is a critical seasonal water resource that is renewed each year at high elevations. 

It retains freshwater during the cold winter months, after which it supplies streamflow to 

soils, lakes and reservoirs during the warmer summer low‐flow periods. Snowpack is, 

however, 

utilized during most of the year after transformation in reservoirs, streamflow 

and groundwater. 

Snowpack projections in BC are still in their infancy, as snowpack is a difficult variable to 

measure. Given that the projected changes to snowpack rely on both temperature and 

precipitation, a great deal of uncertainty is associated with estimates. At present, a single 

estimate has been produced by one RCM model. The results, however, are not sufficient to 

produce a confident statement about future changes to snowpack in BC. The results do, 

however, 

demonstrate that a combination of scientific approaches is needed to provide 

reliable 

future estimates of changes to snowpack in BC. 

While the findings are still tentative, the projections of spring snowpack for BC show 

a decline by 2050s of 200kg/m2. Significantly, the projected snowpack decline is 

more pronounced in the Coastal Mountain ranges with 500kg/m2. This is important 

as while this area is more waterrich than the Chilcotin Plateau as mentioned above, 

the decrease will impact the water resources in the vicinity of where the Xeni Gwet’in 

reside. 

In other words, the decrease in snowpack will impact the water resources that 

supply the daily water use of the Xeni people. 

The projected decreases were primarily caused by the change in snow‐to‐rain ratios 

occurring 

through December, which delayed snowfall into the later winter months and 

reduced 

annual snow water equivalent. 27 

25 Dawson, R., A.T. Werner, 

and T.Q. Murdock, (2008). 

26 This section is primarily 

prepared from information provided in PCIC (2007/revised 2009). 

27 Sushama et al (2006). 

25

Glaciers 28 

Like snowmelt, glaciers are also an important contributor to water resources. Yet, contrary 

to snowmelt, their influence extends from seasons to decades. During the late summer, 

when 

rivers typically experience low flows and ecological requirements are high, glacier 

runoff may be a large faction of the streamflow. 

According to the IPCC, global glacier loss will continue throughout the 21st century because 

increased melt rates will exceed supplements from increased snowfall. 29 More specifically, 

based on the IPCC IS92a (or “business‐as‐usual”) scenario, glacier surface area globally is 

expected to decrease by 38 % and 34 % by 2025 and 2050, respectively. 30 Given the data 

limitations, the behavior of glaciers in the XGCA watersheds is hard to predict with 

any certainty. Adding to the lack of data explained above, another key challenge is that due 

to the presence of more than 10,000 glaciers in Western Canada, projected changes cannot 

be made with fully dynamic glaciological models for all glaciers, although these models may 

serve well for projecting changes at individual glaciers. What is clear, though, most of 

BC’s glaciers are losing mass and many will disappear in the next century. 31 This will 

undoubtedly 

influence river discharges and temperature in a negative way in the 

XGCA. 

A strong example is provided in Figure 8, where projections for Bridge glacier highlight 

substantial reductions of its mass area by up to 20 percent by the 2050s even without 

further warming of the current climate. The figure also shows a subsequent marked 

reduction (37%) in the mean August (summer) stream flow from approximately 2005 to 

2145, even when based on a continuation of the present climate. When the present climate 

was substituted with projected warmer temperatures in the applied models, the glacial 

trends got even stronger. These projected changes will be the result of the projected 

increases 

in air temperature and prevalence of precipitation falling as rain rather than 

snow. 32 

It should be noted that the Bridge glacier is located in the southern BC, so it is not of direct 

relevance to the water bodies of the XGCA. This projection is still alarming, though, as the 

Bridge glacier covers the largest fraction of watershed area in BC. In addition, these results 

suggest that for most of BC the phase of increased streamflow that generally follows climate 

warming has passed and continued reduction in glacier area will lead to decreased 

streamflow. In other words, the future will see less water in the water bodies. 

28 This section is based solely on PCIC (2007revised 2009), unless other source 

is stated. 

29 IPCC Technical Summary for the Fourth Assessment Report 

30 Bush, A., and Pollock, T. (2009); Personal Communication (Nov. 2009). 


32 Stahl, K., Moore, R.D., Shea, J.M., Hutchinson, D. and Cannon, A., (2007 in press). 

26

Figure 8: The Bridge glacier Projected changes in glacier area and mean August 

streamflow for the Bridge glacier in southern BC (20002150). 

Source: Modified from Stahl et al., in review – as seen in PCIC 2009 

Streamflow 

At present, a comprehensive study of projected BC streamflow is not available, in spite of its 

importance for water resources. However, several independent studies have been made for 

major basins and individual watersheds, including two for the Fraser River (Table 7). These 

studies confirm concerns that the influence of future regional projections of warmer 

temperatures, uncertain precipitation and a reduction in snowpack and glaciers will 

adversely affect both the timing and the volume of projected stream flow. 33 

33 Whitfield et al.(2002b).; Merritt, W.S. et al., (2006); and Loukas, A., et al. (2004) 

27

Table 7: Research studies ongoing in BC on streamflow. 

Region Source Study Site Hydrologic 

Model 

Fraser Morrison 

River et al. 

200234 Fraser 

River 

Basin 

(217,000 

km2) UBC 

Watershed 

Model 

Fraser 

River 

Sushama 

et al. 

2006 35 

Fraser 

River basin 

above Port 

Mann 

(232,000 

km 2) 

Canadian 

Regional 

Climate 

Model 

(CRCM) 

Source: Adapted from Merritt et al. (2006) 

GCM 

Scenario 

CGCMA 

Hadley 

Climate 

Model 

(HadCM2) 

CGCM2‐ 

A2 

standard, 

CGCM2 – 

A2 

updated, 

and 

CGCM2‐ 

IS92 

standard 

Downscaling 

Technique 

Statistical 

climate 

inversion 

CRCM 

(dynamical 

downscaling) 

Hydrology 

Scenarios 

Present 

climate: 

(1961‐ 

1990) 

Future 

climate: 

2020 

(2010‐ 

2039); 

2050s 

(2040‐ 

2069); 

2080s 

(2070‐ 

2099) 

Present 

climate: 

( 1961‐ 

1990) 

Future 

climate: 

(2041‐ 

2070) 

Changes to 

streamflow 

Modest average 

flow increase in 

the 2080s with a 

decrease in the 

average 

peak 

flow. 

General shift to 

earlier peak in 

the hydrograph 

(approx. 24 

days) 

A significant 

decrease in SWE 

as less 

precipitation 

falls as snow. 

Runoff is higher 

during late‐fall 

and early‐winter. 

Spring peaks are 

attenuated 

and 

occur earlier. 

Increased 

variability in the 

number of days 

with low‐flows. 

Increased low 

flows in fall. 

The recent PCIC hydrology report from 2009 outlines a host of challenges and complexities 

related to modeling different runoff regimes, one being the multiple sources of streamflow 

that have to be accounted for (i.e. glacier‐melt and groundwater). Yet, the studies highlight 

that projected changes to annual and seasonal streamflow volumes and timing are similar 

across 

models and approaches. 36 The following summary is provided by the PCIC report 

( p.106‐108): 

• “All models and approaches that deal with nival (i.e. snowfed) systems predict an 

earlier onset of the spring freshet or peak flows compared to the base case. 

34 Morrison, J., Quick, M.C. and Foreman, M.G.G., (2002). 

35 Sushama, L., Laprise, R., Caya, 

D., Frigon, A. and Slivitzky, M.,( 2006). 

36 Merritt, W.S. et al., (2006). 

28

• Projected changes to the magnitude of flow include increased winter and decreased 

summer and fall streamflow, along with a diminished spring freshet volume. 37 

• Warmer winter temperatures will cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than 

snow, resulting in increased winter runoff and decreased snowpack accumulation and 

a tendency towards more pluvial(i.e. rainfed) streamflow regimes. 38 

• Reductions to spring peaks will occur primarily from reductions in snowpack and from 

warmer temperatures causing an earlier spring melt.” 

The changes to the flood and low‐flow volume producing mechanisms are different for 

pluvial (rainfed) and nival (snowfed) systems. 39 Watersheds fed by rain are expected to 

have 

increased flood magnitude and frequency. 40 This response is primarily driven by 

warmer, wetter winters, where instead of snow, precipitation falls as rain. 41 

A decrease in the number and magnitude of flood events is predicted for many snow‐fed 

watersheds, particularly those in the semi‐arid interior regions. 42 This decrease is driven by 

the spring melt taking place earlier. Drier summers in combination with year‐round 

warming are projected to increase water shortages in both pluvial and nival rivers because 

of changes in rainfall timing and amounts, projected smaller snowpack and increased 

evaporation. 43 Also an increase in the time elapsed between snowmelt and fall rain is 

projected, which will extend the dry‐season low‐flow period. Interestingly, rain‐fed regimes 

have been shown to have noticeably longer dry seasons as a result of changes in 

temperature 

and precipitation inputs. Because of this rain‐fed systems are considered 

sensitive to climate change. 44 

In terms of projected impacts in the XGCA, based on the above trends, from the 

projected warmer temperatures and increase in precipitation for the Study Area, the 

XGCA rivers will probably see an increase in winter flows and decreased later 

summer flows. 45 Glaciers play a major role in determining low‐flows for 48 percent of the 

monitored 

rivers in BC (see section above). The influence of groundwater and glacier melt 

on 

low‐flows requires further study. 46 

Groundwater 47 

Groundwater plays a critical role in maintaining streamflows during summer months, which 

sustain fish habitat, aquatic ecosystems, not to mention the animals and humans that 

depend on them. Yet, despite these important qualities of groundwater, very little research 

have been done to date on how climate change might affect groundwater resources in the 

future. Concerning BC, for the 

past decade a research program spearheaded by Simon 

Fraser 

University has focused on modeling recharge and groundwater‐streamflow 

37 Hamlet, A.F. and Lettenmaier, D.P., (1999b). 

38 Hamlet, A.F. and Lettenmaier, D.P., (1999b) and Whitfield, P.H., Reynolds, C.J. and Cannon, A.J., (2002b). 

39 Loukas, A., Lampros, V. and Dalezios, 

N.R., (2002a). 

40 Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Dalezios, N.R., (2004) and Whitfield, P.H., Reynolds, C.J. and Cannon, 

A.J., (2002b). 

41 Parson, E.A. et al., (2001b). 

42 Cohen, S. and Kulkarni, T., (20010. And 

Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Dalezios, N.R., (2002b). 

43 Parson, E.A. et al., (2001a). 

44 Whitfield, P.H. and 

Taylor, E., (1998). 


46 Stahl, K. (2007). 

47 Given the scarcity of available information and data, this section is primarily based on information in the 

recent article by Diana Allen in Innovation May/June 2009, Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in BC. 

29

interation under different scenarios of climate change and the overall understanding of 

climate‐groundwater‐surface water interactions in BC. 48 To date, four case studies in BC 

have 

been completed to quantify potential impacts of future climate changes on 

groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. 

However, none of the assessments carried out pertained to the XGCA or the Chilcotin 

Habitat Management Area. Given the scarcity of information related to the groundwater 

situation in the XGCA, the following are therefore general observations from these other 

assessments. While some of these findings may be very relevant for how climate change will 

impact the groundwater resources in the XGCA, they should still be considered with a high 

degree of uncertainty, as any given groundwater aquifer has unique physical properties (i.e. 

the geology), geometry (i.e. the control of broad flow patterns), and the nature of 

connection 

with surface water (i.e., can be a highly dynamic water source and sink for 

groundwater). 

The following are some of the 

main findings of these assessments: 

• Of importance to the Xeni Gwet’in, groundwater systems in the interior regions 

of BC will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to shifts in the 

timing and amount of precipitation, and the strong dependence of rates of 

evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and snowmelt on temperature. 

• In the spring, an increase in temperatures will kick off the growing season earlier, 

and lead to increased rates of evapotranspiration. 

• In the summer 

and early fall, higher temperatures will limit groundwater 

recharge even more 

than presently observed. 

• In the winter, loss of snowpack and timing of snowmelt in the spring can 

potentially have significant impacts on the amount and timing of spring 

runoff. As a result, these shifts will influence groundwater recharge both in 

the valley bottom and in the upland areas. 

If groundwater levels are reduced ‐ brought about either by increased extraction (i.e. for 

agricultural or human consumption) or lower recharge ‐ the consequence could be a 

reduction in summer baseflow to stream corridors. Even if changes in recharge amounted 

to only a few millimeters per year, when summed across an entire aquifer, a significant 

about of stored groundwater could be lost, which, subsequently, would lead to a significant 

reduction in the contribution of groundwater to baseflow. Furthermore, a shift in peak 

stream 

flow will occur due to earlier snowmelt. The consequent longer baseflow period will 

demand a higher groundwater contribution to sustain the flow. 

In glacierized catchments – such as some of the catchments within the XGCA ‐, it is likely 

that glacier‐fed rivers will experience a shift from a glacial regime with high flows in mid 

and late summer to a regime that responds to the summer dry period with streamflow 

recession, low flows and increased temperatures. In such areas, groundwater will become 

an increasingly important source of water for sustaining baseflow during the summer 

months. As a result, according to Allen (2009, “summer low flows in the streams may be 

exacerbated by the decreasing groundwater levels and diminished glacier cover, and 

streamflow may become inadequate to meet economic needs such as domestic 

consumption, 

irrigation, as well as ecological functions such as instream habitat for 

fish and other aquatic species [emphasis added].” 

48 Allen, Diana M. (2009) 

30

If the timing of river discharge shifts, it may lead to a strong impact on groundwater levels. 

This is especially the case in valleys that have major rivers flowing through them. For the 

Xeni Gwet’in, the rivers of such importance would include the Chilcotin, Chilko and Taseko 

Rivers. In addition, peak flow in many BC rivers is predicted to shift to an earlier date, 

combined 

with a prolonged and lower baseflow period. Such a shift in peak flow would 

force groundwater levels to shift by the same interval. 

Another important factor is the projected higher incidence of extreme events. Generally, 

heavy rain events result in less groundwater recharge, because the ground is not able to 

absorb the increased precipitation fast enough. The result will be greater runoff, more 

flooding, etc., which it is difficult to quantify with accuracy in hydrologic models. Similarly, 

extended periods of drought would lead to dry soil conditions, which in some cases can 

result in less groundwater infiltration. So despite the fact that BC, as a whole, is projected to 

become wetter, some of this additional precipitation may fall as heavy rainfall and, 

consequently, the amount of groundwater recharge could decrease. 

5.2. Forest and Vegetation 

This section provides a summary of the larger Study Background Report on Climate Impacts 

on forest and vegetation prepared by Orman Consulting. For the full report, please see 

Annex 2. The methodology for the assessment carried out is provided in section 2.3 above. 

In brief, climate projections based on the worst case emissions (A1F1) scenario were used 

to describe possible effects on the forests of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory by 2050. The 

projected climate variable changes by 2020 and 2050 are presented along with climate 

normals (1960‐1999) by Biogeoclimatic (BEC) subzone. Although the model predicts 

changes to climate envelopes as classified by the BEC system, the changes do not represent 

changes to the forest ecosystem itself. Potential changes to the forest are inferred with the 

help of expert opinion and literature reviews 49. 

Forests of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory 

The XGCA ecosystem, including its wildlife, is somewhat adapted to periods of climate 

extremes, whether very severe winters or summer drought periods. In the winter, strong 

winds called “Chinooks” (warm drying winds) periodically blows from the west, causing 

rapid warming and snow melting, as they also do in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. 

Many plant and animal species have evolved and survived in areas like the XGCA because of 

their resiliency to extreme climate variations. Other species have not done so well, largely in 

part due to man‐induced habitat alternations or destruction, rather than climate extremes 

and 

so have either been extirpated or put on the threatened or endangered list, provincially 

and/or federally. 

The forests of British Columbia are classified using the Biogeoclimatic Ecological 

Classification (BEC) System mentioned earlier. This classification system is a framework for 

understanding the important components of terrestrial ecological systems. These 

components include climate, site factors, and associated vegetation. The BEC system uses 

vegetation, soils, and topography 

to infer the regional climate of a geographic area. Areas of 

49 This simplistic approach was taken due to the budget constraints of this project. Models are now being 

developed that will project effects of climate change on vegetation (Campbell et al. 2009). 

31

elatively uniform climate are called biogeoclimatic units, where climate refers to the 

regional climate that influences ecosystems over an extended period of time. The BEC unit 

can be expressed as statistics derived from normals of precipitation and temperature. 50 It 

was a lack of climate stations capable of documenting the complexity of British Columbia’s 

climate, as well as a need to have biologically relevant climate zonation for understanding 

climatic 

affects on vegetation and associated sites that drove the creation of the climate 

component 

of BEC. See Appendix 1 for a more detailed description of the BEC system. 

General Projected Climate Changes 

The climate of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory is projected to get warmer and drier and this is 

reflected in the changes to the BEC subzones. Note the shift zones from Figure 9 to Figure 

10. To generate Figure 10, best matches (drier, warmer BEC subzones) were determined for 

each original BEC subzone based on the climate variables projected to 2050. Although the 

BEC subzones can closely represent the changes in the climate variables, precipitation and 

temperature, they do not represent how the forests might change by 2050. However, the 

changes 

to the BEC subzones described below can give some insight into what species 

and/or ecosystems may be vulnerable as the climate changes. 

Based on the team assessment, eventually the climate of the majority of the area will be 

similar to what is now the Interior Douglas‐fir (IDF) zone, with some amounts of the Bunch 

Grass (BG) zone and Ponderosa Pine (PP) zone in the warmest areas. This generally agrees 

with a recent modeling project completed on the entire province by UBC (Figure 11). By 

2050 the IDF (yellow), BG (red), and PP (orange) visibly expand in the Chilcotin area 

(middle of the bottom third of the map). 

Figure 9. BEC zones in the study area 51 

Figure 10. Projected BEC subzones by 2050 

50 Downloaded from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/becweb/system/how/index.html). 

51 % of hectares excluding Alpine Tundra zone 

32

Figure 11. Biogeoclimatic changes by 2050 52 

Projected Climate Changes and Impacts by BEC Zone 

A description of each ecosystem is summarized from Steen and Coupe (1997) and Silva 

Forest Foundation (2004) by BEC zone. Much of the potential effect on the forest vegetation 

is summarized from the ‘Ecological Summary and Narratives’ appendix of the Kamloops 

Future Forest Strategy (2009). The Narrative was generated by local specialists and 

practitioners with experience in forestry, habitat and biodiversity, First Nations, watershed 

management, visual landscape management and fire interface management at a workshop. 

It should be read with following 

caveat in mind(page 33): 

52 As predicted by the CGCM2 A2x model, which represents minimalistic emission reductions resulting in rapid 

global warming. http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/geog376/students/class07/bec_pred/ 

33

Box 2: The importance of curre nt and future pine beetle kill 

The forest cover of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory is currently dominated by lodgepole pine, 

regardless of BEC unit. <strong>From</strong> a climatic point of view, the dynamics of lodgepole pine are 

intimately related to fire and mountain pine beetle. 1 Recent warm, dry summers, and mild 

winters have elevated the pine beetle populations to epidemic levels all throughout British 

Columbia. The Ministry of Forests and Range estimate that 80 percent of the pine in the 

province’s central and southern Interior could be killed by 2013, which does not bode well 

for the pine in the XGCA (Figure 12). As trees are killed by mountain pine beetle, mortality 

an be extensive enough to become a very large contiguous fuel base. 1 c 

The large 2009 fires 

on 

the west side of Chilko Lake and in the Brittany Triangle are good examples. 

Figure 12. Predicted cumulative percent of lodgepole pine killed by 2013. 1 

“We think that these narratives are entirely plausible given the information available today. 

We do expect them to be correct. However, we think they are less unbelievable than 

assuming that nothing will change. The key thing we are trying to achieve is to not blindly 

paint ourselves into a corner as our climate changes, with only a few difficult options. This 

strategy will not be the final word. These narratives and associated management direction 

should be updated as new information emerges.” 53 

53 

Ecological Narratives ‐ Backgrounder, Kamloops Future Forest Strategy (2009) Page 1. 

34

In sum, the combination of beetle kill and forest fires will be the most significant impact from 

climate change to be addressed in the XGCA. The Canadian Forest Service predicts that 80 percent 

of the pine will be infected with beetle kill by 2012 (see Box 2). As a result, not only will the forest 

fire 

hazard increase in terms of frequency, but more intense fires are projected as well (see Box 3). 

In 

addition, 

the main specific impacts on the forest and vegetation will likely be: 

• Pine, subalpine fir will no longer be well suited to the XGCA environment 

• Aspen presence will likely decline, but will remain on moister slopes and draws 

• Douglas‐fir, and many Ponderosa Pine on dry sites, 

may be more successful, due to changes 

in frost conditions 

• There will be more grasslands on marginal sites 

• Invasive species, such as knapweed, will increase 

• While some culturally important plants will decrease, others might actually increase within 

the XGCA, such as the Soopolsllie and Choke Cherry, as areas get drier and warmer. 

Interior Douglasfir (IDF) zone 

The IDF zone is characterized by warm dry summers and cool dry winters. It comprises about 22% 

of the forested areas of the study area (Figure 2). Two IDF subzones occur in the study area ‐ the 

IDFdk4 (dry cool) and IDFdw (dry warm). The IDFdk4 occurs in the Nemiah, Elkin, Taseko River 

and Lower Chilko River Valleys. It also occurs as a wide crescent shape band from Cheolquoit Lake 

to Tatla Hill within the North Trapline area. The elevation range is from about 950 to 1200m. 

Climax stands on zonal (mesic) sites typically have multi‐aged Douglas‐fir canopy with abundant 

regeneration. Dominant seral species include lodgepole pine, trembling aspen willow ad rose. Cold 

air accumulation areas have lodgepole pine forests similar to those on zonal sites in the Sub Boreal 

Pine Spruce xc (very dry cold). Drier sites are dominated by Douglas‐fir, common and Rocky 

Mountain 

juniper, bluebunch wheatgrass, Rocky Mountain fescue and lichens, while moister sites 

have hybrid white spruce, black twinberry, palmate colt’s foot and common horsetail. 

The IDFdw subzone occurs at low elevations along the Chilko and Tatlayoko Lakes. Due to the 

influence of coastal air masses, the IDFdw has a warmer moister climate relative to most other 

parts of the IDF zone in the Cariboo Chilcotin. Climax stands are dominated by multi‐aged Douglas‐ 

fir and pine grass, with some lodgepole pine and the occasional subalpine fir, while moist areas 

have hybrid spruce. 

Climate impacts: Climate change will result in hotter and drier summers, warmer winters with 

less snow and more rain in the fall and winter in both the IDFdw and IDFdk4. Lower elevations and 

southern exposures will experience greater drought stress with associated reductions in tree vigor 

and increases in mortality. On northern and moister sites, there will be stands of Douglas‐fir with 

scattered 

openings from pine and possibly spruce mortality. Fire is a concern in the remaining 

lodgepole pine stands in the near term. 

These subzones will become much less suited to growing lodgepole pine. Increased drought stress 

will lower vigour and increase susceptibility to western gall rust, terminal weevil, dwarf mistletoe 

and possibly bark beetles. This increased mortality along with warmer summers will create a high 

risk of large intense fires. 54 Lodgepole pine established on cooler aspects will have a better chance 

of survival. Douglas‐fir, Ponderosa 

pine and spruce should be well adapted up to 2050; however the 

KFFS ( 2009) indicates that by 2080, 

most of the lodgepole pine regenerated in the early century 

54 KFFS 2009. 

35

Box 3: Forest Fire Hazard in the XGCA 

Fire hazard is already a concern in the XGCA due to high proportions of beetle kill and high fuel loads in 

the XGCA forests. Climate change will only worsen this hazard. Hotter and drier summers, warmer 

winters with less snow will result in less moisture in the forest, especially in lower elevations with 

southern exposures. Forests in these areas will experience greater drought stress with associated 

reductions in tree vigor and increases in disease and mortality. This increase in mortality along with 

warmer summers will create a high risk of large intense fires. Figure 13 shows the projected fire 

behaviour in the XGCA forest. The dark red markings indicate areas of extreme fire hazard and a high 

probability of fire. Large tracts of forests in the Brittany and on the west side of Chilko Lake are 

identified as extreme fire hazard burned in 2009. More dry summers will likely see the remaining 

High to Extreme hazard areas burn in the near term. 

Figure 13: Project Fire Behaviour in the XGCA 

Source: Delong, 2010 

36

will be either dead or will struggle under hotter drier conditions. This mortality and past wildfires 

may contribute to expanded grasslands. Ponderosa Pine could eventually be the only conifer 

adapted to drier sites and Douglas‐fir will be limited to moister areas and require shade for 

establishment. 

SubBoreal Pine Spruce (SBPS) zone 

The SBPS zone has cold dry winters and cool dry summers due to its location at moderately high 

elevations in the rain shadow of the Coast Mountains. The SBPSxc (very dry cold) subzone is the 

only subzone of the SBPS in the study area and it comprises also most half of the area (Figure 2). It 

occurs on the Chilcotin Plateau between about 1100 and 1500 m. The SBPSxc has the least annual 

precipitation of the SBPS subzones and vegetation and soil development has been severely limited 

by the cold very dry climate. The landscape is dominated by extensive lodgepole pine forests and 

abundant wetlands. On zonal (medium moisture) sites, the forest canopy is often a patchwork of 

even‐aged lodgepole pine stands which originated from various fires over time. Scattered aspen 

occur on zonal sites and hybrid white spruce occurs on moister sites. Wet meadows are common in 

poorly drained depressions. Mountain pine beetle has caused extensive mortality in the pine across 

this subzone. 

Climate impacts: By 2050 the climate of the SBPSxc will likely be approaching the current climate 

of the IDFdw. The risk of wildfires will increase in the short term as more pine is killed by mountain 

pine beetle. As the climate warms, lodgepole pine will not be suited to this environment. As pine 

declines, it is likely that grassland will expand. Aspen will likely remain in moister areas and 

Douglas‐fir 

may expand into the area. Since there is more precipitation over all ‐ but warmer, drier 

summers, 

the wet meadows may contract and expand on a seasonal basis. 

Montane Spruce (MS) zone 

The MS zone occurs in the transition between the SBPS or the IDF and the Engelmann Spruce 

Subalpine fire (ESSF) zone. Lodgepole pine also dominates the MS landscape. There are two MS 

subzones in the study area‐ MSxv (very dry very cold) and the MSdc2 (dry cold). The MSxv occurs 

in the plateau portion of the study area between 1400 and 1700m. The MSxv is one of the least 

productive BEC units in the province for tree growth. Vegetation succession is very slow and pine 

stands 

greater than 200 years old with only a few spruce or subalpine fir trees in the canopy are 

common. 

The MSdc2 occurs in the Chilko and Tatlayoko valleys and Stikelan and Cheshi Passes and also 

between the IDFdk4 and ESSF in the lower Nemiah Valley. It ranges from 1150‐ 1650m. The climate 

is moderated by the costal influences. Zonal stands are dominated by lodgepole pine with moderate 

amounts of subalpine fir, aspen, scattered spruce and occasionally Douglas‐fir. Drier sites have 

significant amounts of Douglas‐fir and moist sites have hybrid spruce. 

Climate impacts: The ClimateBC model projected hotter and drier summers and warmer winters 

with slightly less snow in the MSxv subzone. The risk of large wildfires will likely increase due to 

warmer temperatures and the increased fuel load from dead lodgepole pine stands. Where it is 

found, Douglas‐fir and spruce released by pine mortality will increase in size and vigour over the 

near term, but will show signs of moisture stress on all but the wettest of sites. Subalpine fir may 

survive in the short term but will have a limited role as a future overstory species. By 2050 there 

37

will likely be scattered Douglas‐fir with small patches of aspen scattered over a landscape mostly 

covered by pine in decline. Lodgepole pine established on the wetter, cooler aspects will have a 

higher chance of survival, but the climate will not be favourable to pine in the long run. There will 

be a trend to more open forests and more grasslands. 

Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir (ESSF) Zone 

The ESSF zone lies below the Alpine Tundra zone and above the MS or IDF zones. There are two 

ESSF subzones in the study area‐ ESSFxv1 (very dry very cold) and the ESSFxvp (very dry very cold 

parkland). The ESSFxv1 lies between 1650 and 2100m. It is dominated by lodgepole pine forests 

which regenerate following relatively frequent fires. Subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce are 

present 

in the understory however; few seral pine forests have been replaced by these long lived 

species. Whitebark pine is common at elevations above 1850m on drier, warm aspects. 

The ESSFxvp is a parkland subzone characterized by patches of stunted trees. It is dominated by 

subalpine fir with spruce on cool exposures and Whitebark pine and lodgepole pine on warmer 

aspects. 

Climate impacts: By 2050 the climate of this area will also be warmer and wetter overall, but 

summers will be drier. It is colder and wetter than the IDF, but warmer than the MS zones. It is 

likely that fire frequency will go up and all species may move up in elevation. Douglas‐fir may also 

move up slope from lower habitats as climate warms. The parkland areas will become more treed, 

however the speed at which this happens will be limited by soil development (Campbell et al. 

2009). The slow maturing Whitebark pine will be threatened as it cannot adapt rapidly to changing 

conditions and will probably be out‐competed. 55 

Culturally Important Plants 

56 57 

As the authors of the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy (2009) describe, the dynamic nature of 

ecosystems 

makes predictions about future conditions challenging at best. However, some 

generalities 

were surmised: 

• Long lived species may be able to survive changes. 

• Wet to moist site plants will see suitable habitat shrink, while some dryland species may be 

threatened by competition by invasive species. 

• However, species that are adapted to wet or dry conditions will 

likely survive where 

biophysical factors influence the amount of moisture available. 

• Drought adapted species may also have a wide range of adaptation. Vulnerability of culturally important plants of the Xeni Gwet’in will vary by species. There have 

been upwards of 50 species identified as important to most First Nations in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin. 58 

What follows is a small selection of those plants that were specifically identified as important by the 

survey of the Xeni Gwet’in elders. 

Claytonia lanceolata (Indian po tato) (Western Spring Beauty) 

55 Cox 2000. 

56 Ecology summarized 

from Parish et al. 1996. 

57 Information also 

provided by Ray Coupe, Ecologist, Ministry of Forests and Range, Williams Lake. 

58 Powell 2005. 

38

• Ecology: Indian potato is widely scattered at mid to high elevations in open, moist, grassy 

slopes. It is often found in areas of late snow beds. Other than the Potato Range it is not 

common in Chilcotin. It is more common the Quesnel Highland and the Cariboo Mountains 

east of the Fraser River. It is also common in some Interior Douglas‐fir grassland areas near 

Kamloops (Lac du Bois and Niskonlith). 

• Effects of climate change: Indian potato seems capable of enduring some drought but also 

requires early spring moisture for early season growth and flowering. As snow pack 

declines and temperatures warm, growth may start earlier and it may migrate upward in 

elevation where there is suitable habitat. 

Erythronium 

grandiflorum (beartooth) (yellow glacier lily) 

• Ecology: Beartooth is not common west of the Fraser River. It is more common and 

widespread in the Quesnel Highland and Cariboo Mountains in the ESSFwcw and WSSFwcp. 

It occurs in subalpine and alpine meadows and wet, open high sub‐alpine forests. It blooms 

soon after snow melt, on the edges of retreating snow. 

• Effects of climate change: As snow pack declines and temperatures warm, growth may 

start earlier an d it may migrate upward in elevation where there is suitable habitat. 

Amelanchier 

alnifolia (Saskatoon) 

• Ecology: Saskatoon is wide spread and common dry to moist forests at low to mid 

elevations. It also occurs occasionally at high elevations on warm aspects. 

• Effects of climate change: Saskatoon may disappear from the very driest of sites but 

overall habitat will likely expand into the MS and SBPS. 

Prunus virginiana (Chokecherry) 

• Ecology: Chokecherry is not common in the Chilcotin. It is found on dry exposed warm 

aspects and rocky outcrops in low to mid elevation open forests. Most common on steeper 

warm aspects, roadsides and some low elevation talus slopes. 

• Effects of climate change: As the climate warms and becomes drier, chokecherry will likely 

spread and be more 

common. 

Rubus idaeus 

(raspberry) 

• Ecology: Raspberry is relatively common on moist disturbed sites in the Chilcotin, 

especially in Coast/Interior tra nsition . It is scattered and often abundant from low 

to 

subalpine areas in clearings and disturbed areas. 

• Effects of climate change: May be vulnerable to warmer, drier climate, but easily 

cultivated. 

Fragaria virginiana (strawberry) 

• Ecology: Strawberry is widespread and common at low to subalpine elevations in dry and 

moist forests, openings and disturbed areas. 

• Effects of climate change: Strawberry exists across a wide range of sites and is therefore 

less susceptible to climate change. It will likely expand and become more common at higher 

elevations. 

Arctostaphylos uvauri (kinnikinnick) 

• Ecology: Kinnikinnick is widespread and common at low to alpine elevations on sandy and 

well drained exposed sites. 

39

• Effects of climate change: Kinnikinnick is likely at low risk to climate change as it is 

adapted to droughty sites across BECs. However, it is sensitive to moderate and severe 

fires. 

Sheperdia Canadensis (soapberry) 

• Ecology: Sheperdia is widespread 

in dry to moist openings and clearings 

• Effects of climate change: Sheperdia 

will likely expand into areas as they get drier. 

Veratrum virid e (Indian Hellebore) 

• Ecology: Hellebore is wide spread and most abundant subalpine elevations on wet seepage 

sites. 

• Effects of climate change: Hellebore is at risk as it has a preference for wet seepage sites 

with cold air drainage. 

Ledum groenlandicum (Labrador tea) and Ledum glandulosum (Trapper tea) 

• Ecology: Most common in colder mid to high elevations in the Chilcotin. Often dominating 

bogs and cold wetland fringes. Absent in hot arid climates. 

• Effects of climate change: At risk as climate becomes warmer and drier. Persistence may 

depends on what BEC it is in, i.e. the colder (higher) and wetter the ecosystem is now the 

longer it will persist. 

5.3. Wildlife & Wild Horses 

This section provides a summary of the larger Study Background Report on wildlife and wild horses 

prepared by Wayne McCrory, RPBio. For the full report, please see Annex 3. 

Past and present exogenous and climaterelated impacts on wildlife and wild horse habitats 

Impact of climate change on wildlife is not a new phenomenon. Indeed, the effects of long‐term 

climate variations can be observed dating back to the last Ice Age on three of the indicator species 

that are currently found in the XGCA: (i) the mountain goat; (ii) the wild horse; and (iii) moose. 

• Mountain Goat Until about 8,000 years ago, there were mountain goats on Vancouver Island. 

Yet, they went extinct at that time, apparently because of global warming (temperatures 

higher than today), which caused fragmentation and loss of the goats’ alpine habitat, which, in 

turn, was a result of the treeline expanding upward in elevation. 

• Wild Horses ‐ The horse species, which evolved in North America (and even existed on 

Vancouver Island) also went extinct about 8,000 years ago, but for unknown reasons. It was 

later re‐introduced by the Spaniards to the Americas in the 1500s, and was brought 

northward by First Nations. As a result, it arrived in the XGCA before the Europeans did, about 

200+ years ago. 

• Moose The moose did not arrive in the Chilcotins until about 90 years ago as a result of a 

gradual, southward range expansion from refugia in the Yukon during the last Ice Age. 

In more recent time (the past couple of decades), the wildlife and wild horse habitats within the 

XGCA have been negatively impacted by a range of factors, including both exogenous and climate‐ 

related ones. The most significant climate‐related factors have been massive pine beetle 

40

infestations and two very large wildfires (2003 and 2009), whose enabling conditions were created 

by global warming. As mentioned earlier in section 5.2, even larger, hotter wildfires are projected 

for the future. Another threat is posed by uncontrolled wildfires that burn up the peat that 

underlies the hundreds of small and large meadows, which store considerable carbon that is 

released in large amounts when burned. 

It is important to acknowledge, however, that there are very important exogenous factors, which 

have nothing to do with climate change, but which have also negatively impacted the wildlife and 

wild horse habitats to date. Government policies of wildfire suppression, for example, allowed 

excessive fuel loading, which contributed to the past wildfire situations. Other exogenous factors 

include tree encroachment, over‐grazing by livestock and lack of natural grassland wildfires, which 

have already caused some native grassland deterioration. In addition, roading and clearcutting in 

some outlying areas have increased drying conditions that would be expected to accelerate further 

drying conditions, changes in micro‐climate and drying of lakes and ponds that are fed by run‐off. 

Projected climaterelated impacts on wildlife and wild horse habitats 

Climate change factors will have an increasing effect not only on the biogeoclimatic zones of the 

XGCA but also subsequently on wildlife habitats and wildlife survival. According to climate 

projections in section 4.4, the XGCA may expect (i) Increased mean temperatures; (ii) increased 

drought conditions in the summer; and (iii) increased rainfall (instead of snow) in winter. These 

climatic changes are projected to cause (i) larger and hotter wildfires (which is also a result of fire 

suppression); (ii) increase the extent of grasslands in several low elevation bioclimatic subzones in 

XGCA; (iii) increase drought; and (iv) possibly cause the treeline to increase in elevation. 

To 

assess how these projected climate changes will impact the wildlife and wild horses in the XGCA, 

three sets of biological indicator species were used: 

1. A sma ll number of plant species and their habitat associations were chosen for their relative 

importance to wildlife. These 

indicator species included 

a. Whitebark Pine ( Pinus 

albicaulis), 

b. Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides), 

c. 

Soopolallie, and 

d. Western Spring Beauty (“wild potato”). 

2. Another set of indicator species included sensitive habitat ecotones (treeline and grasslands). 

3. The final set of indicator species concerned wildlife, and besides the wild horse, included the 

grizzly bear (Ursus arctos), California bighorn sheep, mountain goat, moose, and mule deer. 

These mammal indicator species were chosen either because of their apparent vulnerability to 

global warming and or their importance to the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation. Finally, comments 

were also made on birdlife 

The following is a summary of the assessment, of which further details can be found in Appendix X. 

This is a subjective assessment by the project team, hence these projections should be treated with 

care. 

Assessment of future climate impact on plant indicators 

41

• Whitebark Pine: Of the two tree indicator species of high value to wildlife and biodiversity, 

Whitebark Pine will likely suffer similar extensive die‐offs due to diseases caused by global 

warming as has been reported in many areas of the continental United States with 

concomitant negative impacts on the grizzly bear and the pine crow (Nucifraga Columbiana) 

that seasonally depend on pine nuts. However, wildfire could be a balancing factor in 

restoring/maintaining ecosystem health of this fire‐suppressed habitat. 

• Trembling Aspen: Barring unforeseen factors, this species will most likely continue to thrive 

in XGCA, even with a predicted increase in drought and wildfires. If this holds true, it would 

continue to provide vital nesting and feeding habitat to a great variety of bird species. Moose 

would also benefit from an increased winter food supply. Large wildfires may temporarily 

decrease the amount of older trees as cavity‐nesting habitat for a host of birds, but may 

increase the forest health over time of this fast‐growing hardwood. 

Assessment of future impact on wildlife indicators 

• Moose: This is an important food for the Xeni Gwet’in. Due to lack of sweat glands moose may 

suffer during hotter periods of summer droughts when there are few ponds available to use 

for cooling off. Moose is primarily a browser of shrubs and may suffer some habitat loss as 

grasslands increase. Yet, it will also benefit from regeneration of vital shrub foods at higher 

elevations from an increase in wildfires. Rain on snow in the winter may create crusting 

conditions, reducing some winter survival. 

• Mule deer: This is another important year‐round food for the Xeni Gwet’in. The mule deer is a 

very resilient species, which has adapted to many different biogeoclimatic zones in BC and 

North America, including near‐desert and grassland‐shrubland conditions. The project team 

does not expect it to suffer from global warming in XGCA over the next 50 years. More rainfall 

during winters may lead to crusting and icing, that combined with deep snow, may cause 

some localized declines of resident deer that over‐winter in XGCA instead of migrating to 

easier conditions. 

• California Bighorn Sheep: The XGCA is well known for its bighorns and here this famous 

desert “thinhorn” subspecies reaches the northern limits of its distribution in North America, 

perhaps making it more vulnerable to climate changes. Total population estimates in XGCA 

vary between 130–450 sheep. It is uncertain at this point as to how much sheep are still used 

as a traditional meat source by the Xeni. The males are mainly hunted for trophies, even 

though this bighorn is blue‐listed provincially. Some of the herds have suffered declines, 

including disappearing from over‐hunting on Potato Mountain on the west side of Chilko 

Lake. There have been several successful re‐introductions in XGCA. This species would appear 

to have some vulnerability to global warming, especially as the herds in the XGCA appear to 

be of the ecotype that winters and summers in the mountains on high‐elevation, windswept, 

alpine ridges rather than at a variety of habitats at different elevations. Possible threats from 

global warming include increased icing‐over in winter of alpine meadows used for foraging 

and tree encroachment. Several controlled burns of high elevation habitats have already been 

done to improve winter ranges and this offers some hope to help this species adapt and 

survive global warming. 

• Mountain goat: The XGCA has a population of about 400 goats and there have been several 

small re‐introductions. They have some food value for the Xeni but are also managed for some 

42

limited entry hunting. As noted for the bighorns, the project team expect some limited effects 

from global warming, although icing of winter ranges from more rainfall in wintertime could 

cause increased hardships. 

• Grizzly bears: These are provincially listed as threatened in the West Chilcotin Ranges, with 

perhaps 100 left, and extirpated on the plateau to the north. There has been no trophy 

hunting for years. Recent DNA studies detected 119 grizzlies in the combined Tatlayoko/the 

upper Chilko River sections of XGCA, so the population in Xeni may be in better shape than 

expected. A study shows, however, that a non‐climate related concern is that the XGCA is too 

small to support a viable grizzly population that could survive over the long‐term. If combined 

with large intact mountain and foothills areas to the north and south, the total area would 

have enough quality grizzly habitat and salmon to provide a viable population core larger that 

the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Yellowstone Ecosystem. Although the grizzly population 

is overall threatened and well below capacity, being part of a much larger, intact ecosystem 

will help XGCA grizzly numbers to survive threats from global warming. Since grizzly bears 

have a cosmopolitan diet, this may also help them survive global warming. Given that 

Grizzlies use salmon in a number of areas of XGCA, they will experience changes in food 

supply as salmon runs decline (see section 5.4). However, even with these declines the 

grizzlies may not suffer significant food losses, especially as they also depend on berries, 

roots, corns and mammals in the fall. Pine nuts from Whitebark Pine are also used and 

declines in this species would be another effect of global warming. Wild potatoes (western 

spring beauty) are another food item projected to decline in availability. However, increases 

in berry‐producing shrubs from wildfire such as bearberry, soopolallie, huckleberry and 

blueberry will likely offset some of the other food losses from global warming. 

• Wild horse: An estimated 200 – 400 horses range free in the XGCA, some in the Nemiah Valley 

where they intermingle with a small number of domestic horses and cattle, and the Brittany 

Triangle, which have the remotest surviving wild horses left on the Canadian mainland. So far, 

horses have managed to adapt to a wide range of grassland habitats and desert‐like 

conditions, so they will likely be quite resilient to further climate changes. Notably, two large 

wildfires in the Brittany, partly attributed to global warming, has overall improved wild horse 

habitat by bringing back large areas of grasslands that were overgrown with pine forests. 

Horses will continue to benefit from increased grasslands, but icing of grazing areas from 

increased rainfall combined with alternating freezing conditions in winter may cause some 

hardships. Also, overgrazing by domestic livestock in the Nemiah Valley and near Henry’s 

Crossing has resulted in range deterioration and this is of concern. Spread of alien plants by 

wild horses, pack animals and livestock is another concern. However, overall the project team 

expects wild horses to adapt well to conditions 

brought on by climate change. 

• Wetlands & migratory waterfowl: As mentioned earlier (section 5.1), increased summer 

droughts will affect many of the large and small wetlands, such as reduced water levels, 

limiting the amount of marsh habitat for nesting ducks around a pond. Migratory birds, such 

as waterfowl, will not only be affected by global warming in XGCA, they are also susceptible to 

all kinds of changes to their continental habitat that makes them more vulnerable. 

5.4. 

Fisheries 

43

This section provides a summary of the larger Study Background Report on Climate Impacts on 

fisheries in the XGCA prepared by Cariboo Envirotech Ltd. 2006. For the full report, please see 

Annex 4. 

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation have long been reliant on their own resources for food and to this day 

actively harvest what the local landscape and rivers have to offer from their Caretaker Area 

including fish for their consumption. Since time immemorial, the Xeni Gwet’in have relied on the 

large sockeye, Chinook, Steelhead and Coho salmon runs as a source of protein in their diets. This is 

still the case, as a community survey conducted in 2006 as part of a fish and fish habitat study in the 

Nemiah Valley showed that community members depend on fish in their diet at a minimum of twice 

per week. 59 

Baseline – fisheries in the Xeni Gwet’in Territory 

The 

following Table 8 provides some of the preferred fishing sites and the species found at these 

locations 

within the XGCA. 

Table 8: Preferred fishing locations and species in the XGCA 

Location Known Species Present 

Chilko River Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Coho Salmon, Dolly Varden, Longnose Dace, 

Mountain Whitefish, Pacific Lamprey, Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon, Steelhead, 

Whitefish (General) 

Chilko Lake Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Dolly Varden, Minnow (general), Mountain 

Whitefish, Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon, Steelhead, Sucker (General), 

Whitefish (General) 

Taseko River Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Dolly Varden, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, 

Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon, Steelhead, Whitefish (General) 

Taseko Lakes Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Rainbow Trout, 

Sockeye Salmon 

Elkin Creek Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Dolly Varden, Kokanee, Largescale Sucker, Longnose 

Dace, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Northern Pikeminnow (formerly N. 

Squawfish), Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner, Steelhead, Whitefish (General) 

Big Lake Rainbow Trout 

Konni Lake Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Mountain Whitefish, Kokanee, Largescale Sucker, 

Longnose Dace, Longnose Sucker, 

Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner 

Fish Lake Rainbow Trout 

Big Onion Lake Dolly Varden, Rainbow Trout 

Nemiah Creek Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Kokanee, Largescale Sucker, Longnose Dace, Longnose 

Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Rainbow 

Trout, Redside Shiner 

Tsuniah Lake Longnose Sucker, Northern Redbelly Dace, Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner 

Chaunigan Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner 

Lake 

Brittany Lake Longnose Sucker, Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner, Sucker (General). Whitefish 

(General) 

Twin Lakes Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Nothern 

Pikeminnow, Whitefish (General) 

Sockeye salmon is the most important fish species for consumption by the Xeni Gwet’in community. 

Fisheries and Oceans Canada determined 

decades ago that the salmon stocks utilizing the Chilko and 

59 Cariboo Envirotech Ltd. 2006. 

44

Taseko River drainages were extremely important and as such have invested a great deal of time 

and funding in the monitoring and assessment of these runs. The following Table 9 shows sockeye 

and Chinook escapement data for the Chilko River. 60 The trend is further evidence that these stocks 

are 

in decline. It should be noted that the 2009 Chinook escapement is from the 2004 brood year 

that 

saw 16,287 adult Chinook return to spawn. 

Table 9: Salmon (Sockeye and Chinook) escapement to the Chilko River 19932009. 

Year Sockeye Chinook Year Sockeye Chinook 

1993 555226 6343 2001 668783 10891 

1994 450745 5665 2002 382814 11027 

1995 534559 10461 2003 608321 21625 

1996 974349 17000 2004 91909 16287 

1997 985827 16272 2005 535967 7668 

1998 879017 14549 2006 468947 5201 

1999 891922 8920 2007 305853 4366 

2000 758941 9171 2008 249863 5186 

2009 217572 

(preliminary) 

Source: 

Data provided by Fisheries and Oceans biologist Linda Stevens of Williams Lake. 

How climate change impacts fish 

8548 

(preliminary) 

While there are many negative influences on both anadromous and non‐anadromous fish stocks, 

including over‐fishing, climate change is now considered to be one of the greatest threats to fish 

stocks throughout the world, including British Columbia and the Pacific Ocean. In its 

comprehensive 

Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

( IPPC) states: “There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in 

marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as 

well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation. These include: 

shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in highlatitude 

oceans; increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in highlatitude and highaltitude 

lakes; and range changes and earlier fish migrations in rivers [emphasis 

added]. While there is increasing evidence of climate change impacts on coral reefs, 

separating the impacts of climaterelated stresses from other stresses (e.g. overfishing and 

pollution) is difficult. {WGII 1.3, SPM}” (IPCC²). 

The Panel’s statement reflects the impact climate change will very likely have on both freshwater 

and marine aquatic environments. Additionally, climate change is projected to not only affect 

anadromous species such as salmon, but also non anadromous species, such as rainbow trout, Dolly 

Varden, Bull Trout, and Kokanee, all of which currently provide food for the Xeni Gwet’in 

community from lakes and streams 

in their Caretaker Area. 

60 Data provided by Fisheries and Oceans biologist Linda Stevens of Williams Lake. 

45

Past climate changes and their impacts on fish to date 

Globally, trends provided by scientists show fish stocks in dramatic decline. According to the IPCC, 

evidence for impacts of recent climate change being a serious factor in this decline is rapidly 

accumulating. In their 2007 4 th Assessment, the Panel summarizes the state of salmonids on the 

west coast. The report stated that "Cold and coolwater fisheries, especially salmonids, have been 

declining as warmer/drier conditions reduce their habitat. The searun salmon stocks are in steep 

decline throughout much of North America. Pacific salmon have been appearing in Arctic rivers. 

Salmonid species have been affected by warming in U.S. streams." 61 

Closer to home, climate change is believed to have been affecting the fishery resource in the XGCA 

for some time. While the Fraser River remains one of the most productive Pacific salmon rivers in 

the world, overall trends are not positive, and climate change is likely to make things worse. A 

recent University of British Columbia (UBC) study analyzed the relationship between stream 

temperature and salmon survival. Their findings show that temperature challenges aerobic activity 

in salmon and that each stock of salmon may have different thresholds of survival. 62 According to 

Tony Farrell, UBC, "This study shows that an increase over the past 50 years of 1.8 degrees Celsius in 

the Fraser River's peak summer temperatures is too much too fast for some salmon stocks". He goes on 

to 

say "It also shows that climate change affects even the same species differently because individual 

populations may have adapted to their respective environments. 63 

The following three Fgures (13, 14 and 16) from their 2009 report highlight the declines in sockeye, 

Coho and Chinook salmon for the Fraser River, into which the Taseko and Chilko Rivers flow. Aside 

from the Upper Fraser summer Chinook run, all other species and runs are also in jeopardy, which 

will 

only be further compounded by climate change and its effects on fish and fish habitat located 

within the XGCA. 

The above development is very alarming to the Xeni Gwet’in community, given that especially 

Sockeye salmon are the most important fish species for their consumption. The 2009 sockeye 

escapement into many tributaries of the Fraser River including the Chilko was far below 

expectations. The preliminary indications suggest that the sockeye fry from the Chilko River brood 

year 

left the Chilko system in record numbers and size and expectations ran high in 2009 as a result 

of this, but the return rate was considered a collapse. 

The situation remains of great concern nationally and a judicial inquiry has been scheduled by the 

Canadian government to determine the cause of the sockeye collapse in the Fraser River. Early 

indications suggest climate change may be to blame. Scientists are now suggesting that ocean 

conditions 

in 2007 played a large role in this issue with warmer water temperatures and a lack of 

food 

that the young sockeye are reliant on during their early months in the ocean. 

61 (In the North America Chapter of the IPCC's WGII Technical Report: "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, 

IPCC, 2007 

Adaptation and Vulnerability" issued April.) 

62 UBC (2008) 

63 Tony Farrell, UBC Faculty of Science website 

46

Figure 14: Fraser Sockeye Salmon (19802008) 

Source: Fraser Basin Council 

Figure 15: Interior Fraser Coho (19802007) 

Source: Fraser Basin Council 

Figure 16: Fraser River Chinook (19862008) 

Source: 

Fraser Basin Council 

47

Projected Climate Changes and Impacts 

On December 9, 2009 the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council (PFRCC) co‐hosted with 

Simon Fraser University a think tank of scientists concerned about the failing sockeye salmon 

returns to the Fraser River. Their press release on that date stated “Climate change poses a major 

threat to the future of Fraser River salmon, not only through direct effects of temperature on 

the fish, but also through impacts on food webs and habitats [emphasis added]. Management 

agencies must take this information into account in order to meet the objectives of Canada’s Wild 

Salmon 

Policy, which include maintaining biodiversity as well as monitoring and protecting habitat. 

These are clearly challenging times for Fraser River sockeye salmon.” (PFRCC). 

Few scientists from Fisheries and Oceans Canada will discuss the issue due to the scheduled judicial 

inquiry however other respected scientists are stepping forward with comments and opinions. 

Simon Fraser University’s Dr. John Reynolds who holds the Tom Buell chair in salmon conservation 

recently 

stated “This is now the way that things may well be for the future, especially under the 

predictions we have for climate change" (CBC). 

The fisheries development is very alarming to the Xeni Gwet’in community, given that especially 

Sockeye salmon are the most important fish species for their consumption. However, climate 

change will affect all fish species that the Xeni Gwet’in relies on as a food source differently. In 2009 

Nelitz and Porter from ESSA Technologies Ltd. prepared a report on the effects of climate change on 

Chinook habitat in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin. 64 According to this report, the findings suggest that 

regional climate change impacts on Chinook salmon may be mixed. Interestingly, in some locations 

there may be benefits of habitat changes, while in other locations there may be constraints on 

production. For instance, stream habitats with temperatures optimal for Chinook rearing are 

predicted to decrease in northern areas on the study area and increase in southern areas. 

Late summer / early flows necessary to maintain rearing juveniles and allow return of spawning 

spring and summer Chinook are also predicted to decrease more markedly in the north than in the 

south. In some of the more northern streams summer / fall flows are predicted to decline to 

such an extent that minimum flows to support successful spawning and rearing may not be 

reached 

consistently in the future. The report stressed that further exploration of these data and 

field validation of the modeled interpretations would be fruitful. 

Nelitz and Porter also prepared a report in 2009 on the effects that climate change may have on 

Coho salmon habitat. This report stated “<strong>From</strong> a thermal perspective, there appears to be a current 

abundance of suitable coolwater and coolwarm transition habitats within the downstream reaches of 

the Chilcotin, Quesnel, and West Road watersheds. Under a “best” case scenario of climate change, 

changes are predicted to be most significant in the Horsefly and Chilcotin drainages, with 

temperatures shifting towards those preferred by warmwater fish communities. Under a 

“worst” case scenario thermal shifts are even more significant and extensive in the Chilcotin and 

Quesnel. On average, the linear extent of coolwater habitats is predicted to decline in the Chilcotin by 

the 2080s, while coolwarm transition habitats are expected to increase. The pattern is the opposite in 

the Quesnel where coolwater habitats are expected to increase while coolwarm transition habitats 

are expected to decrease. These changes are accompanied by potentially large increase in the extent of 

warmwater habitats which could 

adversely affect Coho.” 65 The authors notes in their report that 

64 Nellitz and Porter (2009a). 

65 Nellitz and Porter (2009b). 

48

although informative, it will be important to examine where these changes occur specifically to 

determine whether they might be a benefit (increasing extent of suitable thermal habitats, as in the 

Quesnel) or constraint (decreasing extent of preferable thermal habitats, as in the Chilcotin) on the 

productive capacity of Coho habitats. 

Concern for future climate change and its effects on fish are not restricted to anadromous species 

such as salmon, but also to non‐migratory species such as bull trout which form part of the Xeni 

Gwet’in diet. Bull trout are blue listed as a species of special concern in British Columbia. Nelitz 

and Porter prepared a third report –also in 2009 ‐ on the effects climate change may have on bull 

trout in the Cariboo Chilcotin. Their analyses suggest that for all regional watersheds with 

resident bull trout the extent of preferred coldwater habitats will decrease considerably 

under the varied climate change scenarios and that the extent of habitats considered thermally sub‐ 

optimal or potentially unusable by bull trout will increase. 66 The report stated, though, that “The 

general patterns of this analysis do not, however, seem promising for bull trout. Bull trout are already 

considered a sensitive species within BC with very specific cold water habitat requirements, so further 

impacts to their remaining core habitats is likely a cause for concern. The long term patterns 

suggest both an expected decrease in the total amount of cold water stream habitat and 

fragmentation of these colder areas into disconnected “patches” of suitable habitat. 

Maintaining viable sized patches of cold water habitats for bull trout and ensuring unimpeded 

connectivity 

between them may become an important future issue for maintaining genetic exchange 

between 

increasingly isolated regional bull trout populations. 67 

6. Xeni Gwet’in Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 

Climate change vulnerability is defined as the ability or inability of individuals or a group to cope 

with or adapt to climate impacts on their livelihood and well‐being68. The following section is an 

assessment 

of the vulnerability of Xeni Gwet’in First Nation to potential climate changes and their 

impacts. 

The Xeni Gwet’in, like many First Nations, have seen their fair share of changes to their way of life 

over the last few centuries. They have experienced colonization, the spread of new diseases, the 

imposition of the reserve system and the residential school system, continued encroachment by 

outside interests intent on carving up the territory for industrial forestry and mining, resort and 

real 

estate development. And the community increasingly faces the influences of western 

consumer culture through the TV, the internet and the education system. 

Despite these changes or influences, the Xeni Gwet’in have maintained a relatively healthy 

community as compared to many First Nation communities in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin. Many of the 

population continue to speak their mother tongue and pass on traditional ways, the people 

continue to hunt fish and collect, they have an excellent K‐9 school system that teaches the Chilcotin 

language and culture and the community is actively engaged in political and cultural affairs. The 

community has also managed to protect a large part of its traditional territory and therefore have a 

relatively intact ecosystem, abundant 

with clean water supplies, wildlife, fish and wild horses. They 

have a moderately diversified 

energy system, a reliable water system and road maintenance 

66 Nellitz and Porter (2009c). 

67 Nellitz and Porter (2009c). 

68 Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research, 2005 

49

system. They are relatively healthy and have managed not be overcome by substance abuse like 

other reserves. 

Nevertheless the community might be characterized as relatively vulnerable to potential climate 

changes, since they remain very dependent on one source income (Federal government transfers) 

for their livelihood and maintenance, they have very little control over the land they actually 

inhabit and depend upon for sustenance, they are increasingly dependent on food and technology 

imports, they have few people and resources to plan, monitor and enforce the management of their 

land or to invest in new enterprise. And they also increasingly experiencing conflicts over land use 

in 

their territory, the results of which could jeopardize the health and biodiversity of their land and 

thereby their ability to cope with climate change. 

Below is an assessment of Xeni Gwet’in First Nation based on the WEHAB+ framework developed 

by the Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research69. 

The WEHAB+ methodology is simply an 

acronym that stands 

for the six or more important supports for society: 

W ‐ Water 

E ‐ Energy 

H ‐ Health 

A ‐ Agriculture and Food Supply 

B ‐ Biodiversity 

+ additional supports like human settlements and infrastructure 

We use this framework but also add governance, livelihoods and culture as other important 

supports. 

6.1. Biodiversity 

The XGCA is one of the last intact ecosystems on the east side of the Chilcotin range. It has large 

riparian areas in the valleys ranging from open wetlands and closed canopy moist forest. It has 

large plateau lands with a mix of dry forests and grasslands and long chains of wetland or wet 

forest. It has high alpine features mixed with barren mountain‐sides and alpine meadows that 

experience cold temperatures most of the year. It has an abundance of moose, mule deer, black 

bears and grizzly bears, mountain goats, California Big Horn Sheep, wolves and coyotes, beavers, 

marmots, tree nesting birds and waterfowl. It still supports almost all of the native flora that were 

present during the Pleistocene era and includes populations of wild horses whose ancestry may 

date back to the Spanish horses that migrated north from Central America. Its proximity to the 

coastal ranges and an abundance of glaciers has also blessed it with an abundance of clean 

freshwater in its many lakes, rivers and streams. These water bodies are home to one of the largest 

interior salmon runs in BC, providing spawning grounds for sockeye, Chinook, Steelhead, Chum and 

Kokanee as well as home to an abundance other endogenous cool water fish. This rich biodiversity 

is 

a result of a complex of diverse soils, water and topographic conditions but it is also a result of 

limited human use in the area. 

This is not to say that there are no stresses on the XGCA ecosystem. There is increasing 

recreational tourism pressure on the land and water bodies, leading to more hunting, fishing, and 

camping, boating, off‐road motorized and non‐motorized access. There is also increased 

subsistence hunting and fishing 

by non‐Xeni Gwet’in First Nations and and recreational hunters. 

Salmon 

stocks, as indicated in section 5.4, have 

experienced a significant decline recently for 

69 Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research (2005, p 42). 

50

unknown reasons. There have been two significant fires in the last decade resulting in large burns, 

fireguards and new roads. 70 There is increasing mineral exploration activity in the area, not least of 

which 

includes the Prosperity Mine Project, which has led to tree clearing, drilling and more on‐ 

and off‐road traffic. 

As indicated in the climate projections and biophysical impacts in earlier sections, accelerated 

climate warming, will likely place more stress on the ecosystem than it has recently experienced. 

There will be impacts throughout the XGCA on vegetation, wildlife, fish and water resources. 

However, despite some of the human induced stresses on the ecosystem, the XGCA is a fairly 

healthy and intact ecosystem, making it fairly resilient to potential climate changes. Conservation 

biologists agree that “maintaining connectivity between natural habitats, and along altitudinal 

gradients, is a key strategy to allowing plant and animal species to adapt to climate change.” 71 And 

if the XGCA ecosystem is healthy and “resilient”, the Xeni Gwet’in community, who depend 

significantly upon the land for their sustenance, their health and their culture, stand a better chance 

of 

coping with climate change. The World Bank states as much when commenting on the 

relationship 

between biodiversity and climate adaptation: 

“Within any given ecosystem, functionally diverse communities are more likely to be 

resilient to climate change and climate variability than biologically impoverished 

communities.” 72 

The same holds true for communities and ecosystems outside the XGCA. The benefits of a healthy 

ecosystem accrue to ecosystems and communities downstream as well, since the ecosystem 

services produced in the XGCA flow out of the area benefitting all life. 

“Mountain habitats...bestow multiple ecosystem, soil conservation, and watershed benefits. 

They are often centers of endemism, Pleistocene refuges, and source populations for 

restocking of more low‐lying habitats. Mountain ecosystems influence rainfall regimes and 

climate at local and regional levels, helping to contain global warming through carbon 

sequestration and storage in soils and plant biomass. Wetlands are nature’s kidneys, 

providing indispensable ecosystem services that regulate nutrient loading and water 

quality.” 73 

Where the Xeni Gwet’in may be vulnerable is if they cannot manage to maintain a healthy 

ecosystem due to increasing pressures from the outside world. There are significant logging and 

mining plans for the XGCA, which threaten to seriously disturb the existing balance. If this is the 

case and the land increasingly becomes fragmented by roads and development and the air, waters 

and soils become stressed by increased pollution, the ecosystem will be much less resilient to the 

stresses 

of climate change, which will undoubtedly affect the Xeni Gwet’in’s ability to cope with 

climate 

change as well. 

70 

The 2003 Chilko Fire and the 2009 Lava Canyon Fire were the largest in BC in both years. 




51

6.2. Health and Safety 

At present, there is one full‐time nurse position in the community (Nemiah Valley) and a full‐time 

nurse in Tatla Lake (two hours from Nemiah) but no doctor. The nearest ambulatory services are 

at 

Alexis Creek Reserve or Tatla Lake (over 1.5 hours away by road). Air ambulance is available 

from Williams Lake (0.5 hours away) for life threatening conditions pending weather conditions. 

Despite having rather limited health services, the Xeni Gwet’in community is relatively healthy, 

although there is a moderate rate of substance abuse and addiction and the community is 

experiencing 

some increases in diabetes, asthma, heart disease and obesity likely due to changing 

diet. 

Safety services and infrastructure are also very limited in the XGCA, there is no community fire 

service or fire crew or firefighting equipment in Nemiah or Chilko, or Tatla Lake, the airstrips in 

Nemiah and north Chilko Lake are too short to legally handle anything bigger than a Cessna 172 or 

Cessna 206 (4‐6 seaters) and there is only one good road in and out of Nemiah and north Chilko. 

However, the Xeni Gwet’in community has very good road maintenance equipment and skills to 

develop fireguards and flood guards, it has recently developed an emergency preparedness plan 

and 

a wildfire protection plan for the reserve and certain high value sites in the great XGCA and the 

community is also served by the BC Wildfire Management Branch in case of emergencies. 

The most immediate risk of climate change is the damage due wild fires, which could result in the 

loss of life (Xeni Gwet’in, non‐Xeni Gwet’in residents, and visitors), the loss of property (homes, 

businesses, infrastructure and livestock), increased mental stress associated with these losses or 

potential losses and respiratory ailments due to smoke and ash. More long‐term risks are 

associated with flooding in the spring74. Flooding has occurred regularly in Elkin Creek, Nemiah 

Creek and Konni Lake drainages and even in the Klokon Creek aquifer. Chilko Lake and Chilko 

River also regularly experience high levels that put property owners at risk. These and other 

residential areas of the XGCA as well as major roadways could experience more serious or frequent 

flooding in the future with milder winters. Because the Xeni Gwet’in have very limited health and 

safety 

services and they are remote and have limited access in and out of the area, they are fairly 

vulnerable 

to wild fires and flooding. 

6.3. Water Supply 

There is abundant, high quality water throughout the XGCA, with numerous glacier fed lakes and 

rivers. Access of potable water for household purposes by the Xeni Gwet’in is primarily through the 

community water system, based on a community well near the Band office, which draws on the 

Klokon aquifer. Approximately 9% of the Xeni Gwet’in residents are not on this system but use 

shallow Wells or an infiltration gallery. The community water system and other household systems 

are tested weekly and monitored closely. By and large the community wells and Klokon aquifer are 

quite healthy, with a sustainable 

yields of between 2.90 L/s and 5.0 L/s 75 during the summer 

74 Flooding does occur occasionally at certain points in the XGCA, which has impeded daily life for Xeni Gwet’in and non‐ 

Xeni Gwet’in residents. Klokon Creek and Elkins Creek are particularly vulnerable in Nemiah Valley as are the shorelines 

of Chilko Lake and the Chilko River, where a number of resorts are located. The Cariboo Regional District has kept some 

records of flooding in the area and now has a shoreline policy in place for property development but no comprehensive 

flood protection plan is in place for the Nemiah Valley or the XGCA. 

75 

Sustainable yield of 2.96 L/s for WIN20361, 2.90 L/s for WIN20362. 5.0 L/s for WIN24154 – Kala Groundwater 2008. 

52

season and below detection coliform counts. The Klokon aquifer on which the community depends 

is 

estimated to be quite large, stretching from the bifurcation of Klokon creek down to the valley 

bottom, which is expected to serve the community quite easily for years to come. 

The Xeni Gwet’in rely on water sources other than their water systems. Because they are 

somewhat 

nomadic within the XGCA for traditional activities such hunting, fishing, collecting and 

back country riding, they often acquire drinking water from local streams, rivers, and lakes. 

Water for non‐potable uses such as gardening depends on these same systems, except in the case of 

large scale irrigation for hay farming. To irrigate fields in the Nemiah Valley, the Xeni Gwet’in use 

flood irrigation. This involves allowing natural flooding or diversions from nearby streams during 

the spring or early summer. Elkin’s Creek Ranch however diverts water regularly from Elkin’s 

Creek via a pump and sprinkler irrigation system. Other pasture lands in the XGCA are largely rain 

fed and wild, which the cattle, wildlife and wild horses graze on the fall, spring and summer. 

Watering 

of livestock is also dependent on water directly from streams or ponds and is largely 

unmanaged, leading to frequent and unmonitored contamination with fecal matter. 

Climate change will bring a variety of risks to water supply but most of these are likely to occur in 

the medium to long‐term, barring any damage to water systems or water courses due to fire or 

flood. Milder and wetter winters will cause peak flows to occur earlier in the spring or summer, 

which could lead to increased flooding but also less water stored as snow for flows in the late 

summer. Drier and hotter summers could lead to increased evapo‐transpiration from XGCA lakes, 

streams and accelerated melting of glaciers, which in the short‐term may not affect water flows but 

in the medium and long‐term may result in reduced water flows in the summer. Both increased 

flooding 

in the spring and reduced flows in the summer could jeopardize property or potable water 

supplies. 76. These events may also affect water supplies for livestock, wild life and vegetation. 

The one weakness of the current water system is that it is fed by the Klokon glacier, which may be 

in jeopardy in the long‐term with milder weather. However, should this system fail due to low 

glacial flows, Konni Lake has been designated the back‐up water source for the community, which is 

quite large, deep and easily accessible by the community. The community is also near to Chilko 

Lake, which could also be a long‐term source of freshwater. Hence, the Xeni Gwet’in might be 

considered fairly resilient as far as water supply goes due to the abundance of fresh water sources 

in the Nemiah Valley. This could change rapidly if outside interests begin contaminating these 

water sources as a result of industrial logging or mining in the area or if they attempt large scale 

water diversions. 77 None of these risks are improbable. Indeed, the Prosperity Mine project is at 

its final stage of review and it is only one mountain range away from the Nemiah Valley. Moreover, 

as 

the southern US becomes more arid due to climate changes, XGCA water may become a hot 

commodity 

and may either attract more development or attract increasing pressure to export. 

6.4. Food Supply 

76 Flooding could cause contamination of wells and surface water as well as creating stagnant water in poorly drained 

areas. Increased evapotranspiration could result in lower flows, lesser recharging of water supplies and therefore result 

lower dilution ratios to particulates or contaminants. 

77 The Taseko Lakes were proposed to be part of a massive hydroelectric development which would have seen the flow of 

the Taseko River dammed and diverted westward via a tunnel to Chilko Lake, which would have been also dammed and 

diverted through further tunnels to Tatlayoko Lake on the Homathko River, which unlike the Taseko and Chilko Rivers 

drains directly to the ocean at Bute Inlet rather than via the Chilcotin and Fraser Rivers. Fisheries and aboriginal land 

claims concerns have derailed the Taseko diversion, although the Chilko diversion remains as a possibility. 

53

The Xeni Gwet’in depend on a variety of food sources for their diet, including wild plants and 

animals, store bought food and some cultivated vegetables. Wild animals important to the Xeni 

Gwet’in for food include: mule deer and moose, salmon, trout and whitefish for protein. These 

meats and fish foods are typically caught in large batches in the spring and fall and canned or dried 

for winter food supplies and sharing. Wild plants important to the Xeni Gwet’in for food and 

medicines include but are not limited to wild potato, beartooth, Trapper Tea, Indian Hellebore, 

raspberry, saskatoon berry, chokecherry, soapberry, Kinnikinnik and strawberry. Some of these 

plants are dried or canned if sufficient quantities warrant and the products lend themselves to 

preservation. Some of the community also cultivate vegetables in the summer and can or preserve 

the surpluses where available. Ironically, many of the Xeni Gwet’in raise or have raised cattle but 

seldom slaughter them for eating, instead preferring to sell them for cash. Whatever is not obtained 

from wild sources or local gardens is supplemented by store bought food, often purchased in 

Williams Lake. Based on recent surveys roughly 70% of food supplies are purchased from 

commercial sources with a predominance of these purchases occurring in the winter months. 

Although this balance of wild, cultivated and store bought food sources is undoubtedly higher than 

most non‐First Nations and urban dwellers it is gradually shifting to more store bought food as a 

result 

of easier access to commercial food sources and as a result of less hunting, fishing, collecting 

and gardening by younger generations. 

Climate change may affect Xeni Gwet’in food supply in both negative and positive ways. In the 

immediate future the occurrence of wild fires may temporarily threaten the food security of the 

community 

because it may cause wild game to flee from traditional hunting areas, it may destroy 

summer gardens and/or it may hinder access to food imports (from town). 

In the medium and long‐term, however, as the climate increasingly warms some wild food sources 

may shift to new areas of the XGCA or disappear altogether which may lead to lower consumption 

of these wild foods. As mention in section 5.3, dry summers may cause moose to migrate to wetter 

and cooler environments. Drier summers may also cause wild potato, bear tooth, trapper tea, 

Indian hellebore and raspberry to die off at current elevations (section 5.2). Warmer rivers, lakes 

and 

oceans, caused by hot summers and mild winters, may also reduce salmon and trout 

populations significantly in the XGCA (section 5.4). 

At the same time, the milder winters and warmer summers in the medium and long term may 

expand the growing season for new and existing crops. If the water is available and the Xeni 

Gwet’in are inclined towards agricultural development, there may be opportunities to expand their 

cultivated food supply. Moreover, with the help of more frequent wild fires, the availability of 

rangeland for cattle and mule deer may be expanded, making beef and deer meat more available. 

Drier 

summers may also invigorate the growth of saskatoon berry, chokecherry, soapberry, 

Kinnikinnik and strawberry, which are commonly harvested by the Xeni Gwet’in. 

Hence, while climate change may reduce the availability of some wild foods, it may allow others to 

thrive 

and it may allow for greater agricultural production in the region, with the potential for 

making 

the Xeni Gwet’in’s food supply more diverse. 

6.5. Shelter and Infrastructure 

Housing among most of the Xeni Gwet’in community might best be described as rustic. Much of the 

housing stock in the Nemiah Valley consists of small single family log homes that are relatively old 

(between 30 and 50 years). Some new stick frame and mobile homes exist as well but they do not 

54

appear to be aging very well. 78 These houses in the community are spread out sparsely in small 

clusters from Konni Lake to Chilko Lake. Despite the age of much of the log housing it is still 

relatively functional and comfortable. There are issues with rot and mold due to leaky roofs and 

leaky pipes, and ventilation as well as with draftiness and poor accessibility for seniors but recent 

renovations by the community have rectified some of these concerns. There continues to be a 

demand 

for new modern housing but INAC housing stipends are not sufficient to build new single 

family housing and few in the community can afford to finance a home themselves. 

Infrastructure in the XGCA is relatively sparse and largely locally maintained. Water, energy, and 

health infrastructures have already been discussed in earlier sections, so these need no further 

discussion here. Sanitation, telecommunication and public buildings used by the Xeni Gwet’in are 

largely in the Nemiah Valley and are very small in scale. The road network in and out of the XGCA is 

comprised of tertiary gravel and bush roads and are partially maintained by the Xeni Gwet’in up to 

the Stone Reserve and thereafter maintained by the Interior Roads Ltd. There is only one four 

season 

gravel road accessing the Nemiah Valley from Highway 20. There is also one four season 

gravel road maintained by Interior Roads Ltd. into north Chilko Lake. 

Other infrastructure like Xeni Gwet’in government buildings comprise of a Band Office, the Health 

and Social Services building, the daycare, the Tourism/Economic Development office, the Xeni 

Enterprise Trailer, the Public Works yard and the K‐9 school, which are clustered together near the 

west end of Konni Lake. Telecommunication infrastructure is based on radio or satellite systems, 

with practically every household and office having access to one or the other. Sanitation is fairly 

decentralized 

with each household on septic fields and tanks, except for the public buildings and an 

adjacent sub‐division which have a centralized septic system. 

Climate change may affect Xeni Gwet’in housing and infrastructure in both immediate and longer 

term ways. In the immediate term the occurrence of wild fires may threaten the destruction or 

damage of housing and infrastructure. Houses, in particular, will be difficult to protect because they 

are so spread out throughout the Nemiah Valley. This is not the case for for community buildings, 

which are fairly centralized near the head of Konni Lake. Road access is the only mass evacuation 

route out of the XGCA at the moment and if it is blocked due to fire or damaged bridges, there are 

few alternatives for efficient evacuation. Telecommunication may be fairly resilient to wild fires 

because 

it is either based on radio or satellite systems, which are not dependent on a central hub in 

the region. Similarly, sanitation is fairly decentralized, except for the public buildings. 

In the medium to long‐term, wetter and milder winters and unpredictable storms may increase the 

incidence of flooding and wind damage in certain areas as well as the incidence of mold and mildew 

in 

the houses and public buildings if they are not well maintained. It may also wreak havoc on the 

roads networks due to more frequent icing and thawing or washouts. 79 

Firefighting capacity has been discussed above and needs no further elaboration. The Xeni Gwet’in 

have fairly strong capabilities to deal with road maintenance and repair but not bridge repair. They 

do not have much in the way of resources to monitor and deal for flood protection, sanitation repair 

and telecommunication equipment repair. They do have a number of good carpenters but few 

other trades people and few funds to undertake building repair, although INAC is theoretically 

78 Comments from Jon Tanis, Carpenter and resident of Nemiah Valley. 

79 Typically, winter is easier on the roads than the other seasons because the snow and ice act as a shield against wear and 

tear. With more frequent thawing, the roads could become quite slick and pot‐holed. As well, floods have occurred east 

of Konni Lake and Elkins Creek and even at the Band office. These may become more common. 

55

obligated 

to finance these repairs in the event of an emergency or in the event of a health risk yet 

this 

does not always happen quickly. 

6.6. Energy Supply 

Comparatively speaking the people of the XGCA are relatively small energy consumers and are 

relatively diversified in their use of energy. All of the XGCA, except for Tatla Lake are off the BC 

Hydro electrical grid. The nearest BCHydro line is either Tatla Lake or Lee’s Corner just passed the 

north east boundary of the XGCA. The entire area is also unserviced by natural gas but residents 

and operators can and do have propane and diesel delivered regularly. To provide power and heat 

for all those off the grid, a combination of diesel generator, propane, solar, wind and/or firewood 

are employed. Tsuniah Lodge also has access to hydro from its own micro‐hydro system. The most 

common strategy for generating power in the XGCA is to use diesel, gas or propane generators. The 

most common strategy for generating heat is still wood fire stoves, furnaces or fireplaces. There 

are a number of solar/propane hybrid systems set up to serve a number of housing clusters in the 

Nemiah Valley. Some individual houses also have their own solar systems. There is also some 

exploration in the community concerning alternative energy sources including wind, mini‐hydro, 

linking to the BCHydro grid, and bio‐fuel. At the moment, the most feasible approach seems to 

entail 

a mini‐hydro power station on Klokon Creek (above the Band office), which would have the 

capacity to power (not heat) the whole Nemiah Valley and more80. Climate change may affect Xeni Gwet’in energy systems in a number of ways. Firstly, wild fires 

induced by drier summers may put some of the existing power and heating systems at risk but 

because of the decentralized distribution of these systems it is unlikely that all systems would be 

affected. Secondly, drier summers may limit the capacity of the proposed new mini‐hydro project if 

significant draw downs occur because of evapo‐transpiration and low rates of replenishment. On 

the 

positive side, milder winters are likely to result in lower heating requirements for public 

buildings 

and households. 

6.7. Livelihood 

The Xeni Gwet’in sustains their livelihoods in a mix of ways. The most predominant means is 

through public sector transfers (mainly federal), in the form of Band government employment, BC 

Parks employment, social assistance, unemployment insurance, training subsidies or social 

security. The second most common means of support is by working outside of the XGCA, either in 

the service sector or in the resource sector (forestry and mining), on a seasonal basis. And the third 

means of support is by working in the XGCA tourism sector (B&B operation or guiding for 

wilderness resorts) or in the ranching sector (cow‐calf operations). There is a significant tourism 

sector in the XGCA, including 11 resorts, 3 B&Bs, 3 guide‐outfitters, and 4 boat/raft companies but 

few of the Xeni Gwet’in community are directly involved in it as yet. There are significant forest, 

wildlife, mineral and fishery resources in the region but the Xeni Gwet’in have yet to develop them 

except for subsistence purposes 81. There may even by viable wind energy to exploit and sell into 

the grid at the north end of the territory. There are plans to do more with these resources and 

80 Feasibility/predesign of the mini‐hydro project is complete; now awaiting decision from Xeni Gwet’in Council as to 

whether or not they wish to pursue the project. Funding is somewhat dependent on INAC and BC Hydro. Chief Marilyn 

wants to have a referendum on whether Xeni Gwet’in should partner with BC Hydro. 

81 The Prosperity Mine at a copper/gold mine that is being proposed for the Fish Lake area in the XGCA. However, this 

project is opposed by the Xeni Gwet’in and most of the Tsilqot’in Nation. 

56

opportunities in the near future in a eco‐friendly manner but the lack of capital and manpower 

mak e progre ss very slow. 

The heavy dependence of the Xeni Gwet’in on the public sector is both an advantage and 

disadvantage in the face of climate change. Core public transfers to date have been relatively stable 

and are likely to stay that way as long as the Xeni Gwet’in are governed by the Indian Act. This 

means that the Xeni Gwet’in are somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy and the 

effects that climate change may have on the economy. However, the dependence on public 

transfers also limits the Xeni Gwet’in to a fairly low level of income, employment and investment. It 

also 

limits the level of community autonomy and the ability to pursue what it sees as its best 

interests in terms of a response to climate change. 

There are three potential growth sectors that the Xeni Gwet’in are interested in pursuing in the 

future including: nature‐based aboriginal tourism, eco‐forestry & value‐added wood products and 

natural/organic agriculture. Nature‐based aboriginal tourism development is the key focus at the 

moment and involves plans for investments in guided tours, ceremonial meals and a destination 

resort. 82 Eco‐forestry has also begun to be explored with the intention of focusing on small‐scale 

ecosystem‐based conservation forestry83. Agriculture has not been closely examined but the 

intention 

is to build on the Xeni Gwet’in ranching heritage and explore new opportunities for niche 

cultivation. 

Climate 

change will have a mixed impact on all three of these economic sectors. 

Naturebase Aboriginal Tourism 

Wild fire poses a risk to business property and livestock, the temporary loss of wildlife for hunting 

and viewing, the loss of viewscapes, and the interruption of business operations. Warmer summers 

also may result in more frequent open camp fires bans for campers. And warmer waters pose a risk 

to fish stocks and therefore fishing tourism as well as the proposed cat‐skiing operation proposed. 

On the other hand, wild fires could improve habitat for certain wildlife and thereby improve 

opportunities 

for hunting and wildlife viewing. And milder springs and falls could expand should 

seasons 

to make tourism more viable in the area. 

EcoForestry & Valueadded 

The impacts of climate change on forests have been discussed in section 5.2. Suffice to say that 

climate change could result in the destruction of significant amounts of merchantable and non‐ 

merchantable timber through wild fires and new pests, which could greatly reduce the potential for 

forest harvests. However, climate change could also result in the new botanical opportunities 

(mushrooms, berries etc) and it could, in the long‐run transform a large portion of the XGCA forest 

into Douglas‐fir stands, which are typically more merchantable and of higher value than the current 

lodgepole pine dominated forests. The proposed Silva ecosystem‐based forestry approach 

proposes an annual volume cut of 783m 

throughout the regio 

3 distributed by selective and small batch cutting 

throughout the “eco‐forestry zones of the region84, which would leave the forest ecosystem 

essentially intact. As it is, the proposed approach does not account for the extensive fire risk 

occurring n as a result of the beetle kill infestation nor the potential transition 

82 Ecolibrio (2009). 



57

the ecosystem may experience over the long‐term. However, given the relatively small cut 

prescribed, it is likely that it will be easy to meet the annual cut with beetle kill wood alone and/or 

adjust to cutting to new areas if wildfires destroy proposed cutting areas. Moreover, since the 

forestry 

approach is ecosystem‐based, any major changes to the ecosystem would hopefully be 

reflected 

in the approach to forestry. 

Organic/Natural Agriculture 

Ranching and haying are the main agricultural activities that the Xeni Gwet’in are engaged in the 

XGCA, although the level of activity has declined over the years due to poor returns on cattle sales. 

The community is looking to re‐invigorate this commercial activity and perhaps partner with a 

meat processing facility in the region to market Xeni branded natural or organic beef products. 

They 

are also interested in investigating the potential of other commercially viable cultivated 

products in the region. 

The most immediate risk to ranching and agricultural development in general in the XGCA is fire. 

Wildfires could kill, maim or scatter livestock, destroy hay fields and pastures, and damage fencing. 

At the same, time fire could also re‐invigorate and expand grasslands for grazing in the medium to 

long‐term, 

which would benefit ranching in the area. A milder fall and spring may also expand the 

growing 

season for new crops. 

6.8. Governance 

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation government governs its community under the auspices of the Indian 

Act and the federal government of Canada. This means that most decision‐making is carried out by 

the four members of the Xeni Gwet’in Band Council. 85 All of the community’s planning, 

administration and social services, basic health care, housing administration, public works, 

economic development, external agency referrals and jurisdictional decision‐making are carried 

out by the Band Government with some assistance of the Tsilqot’in National Government on 

regional planning issues. Most of the funding for these services comes from the federal 

government with small amounts also coming from the provincial government for designated 

projects. There are no other revenue sources for the Band government at this time. Although this 

funding 

covers most of the basic necessities of government, there is very little discretionary funding 

to deal with land use management issues in the XGCA. 

Governing the community can not be easy. The community is fairly depressed economically, youth 

and young families regularly leave the area for work and education resulting in a capacity drain. 

The community is aging and the number of children is declining making it difficult to maintain the 

K‐9 school. There are constant threats and pressures on the land from outside sources, including 

most recently the push to establish the Prosperity Mine at Fish Lake and real estate development at 

the north end of Chilko Lake. There is also increasing unpermitted use by ATVs, mountain bikers, 

hunters 

and sports fishermen and boaters. On top of this, the community is fighting a rights and 

title case against the BC government 

in the BC Supreme Court. 

85 By‐Elections for two council positions recently added a fourth member to Council, which will add capacity to the 

current Band Council affairs and decision‐making. 

58

Climate change will not directly affect community governance but the effects it will have on the land 

and on community assets could certainly add more stress to governing an already challenging 

situation. In the short‐term, wild fires could destroy housing and public infrastructure, which could 

impede 

the regular activities of government. Long‐term changes due to climate change will be 

more 

gradual but they will force more systematic changes to community development. 

6.9. Culture 

The Xeni Gwet’in are the original inhabitants of the XGCA, occupying and using the land for 

thousands of years. Culturally they regard themselves as people of the Tsilhqot’in Nation, which 

has a distinct language, a distinct system of meanings and values, a distinct kinship system and a 

distinct way of life marked by a blend of sub‐arctic, plateau and coastal practices. 86 The Xeni 

Gwet’in are unusual among First Nation communities in the southern half of BC in retaining almost 

complete use of their own Chilcotin language and in continuing to hunt, fish and collect berries, 

roots and medicines from the land much the same way their ancestors did. It is not an accident that 

the Xeni Gwet’in culture is relatively strong. The community is remote and is not inundated by non‐ 

Xeni Gwet’in culture. It has its own K‐9 school, wherein the language and the culture are taught. 

The community makes a real effort to gather together and celebrate its culture at regular times of 

the year. The children are taught and encouraged to ride and hunt, fish and collect. And the land 

has remained fairly healthy so hunting, fishing and collecting is relatively easy. Indeed, the strength 

of the Xeni Gwet’in culture is closely related to the health of the land, since their stories, their diet, 

their 

medicines, their seasonal movements and their social gatherings all revolve around a healthy 

land. 

Although the Xeni Gwet’in culture is relatively strong, the culture is at risk of declining as the 

outside world increasingly influences the community through TV, radio, internet and consumer 

culture and as the youth travel or leave the community for work, education or marriage. Climate 

change will only stress the traditional culture further, since it will stress the land upon which the 

Xeni Gwet’in culture is inextricably linked. Salmon and trout fishing, to some extent hunting 

(moose) and collecting may become more difficult, which may negatively impact traditional food 

gathering and local self‐sufficiency. Climate change could accelerate a shift that is already occurring 

away from traditional culture, perhaps to a more agrarian culture, if farming is taken up in a bigger 

way, or perhaps to a more western rural culture, if store bought foods become the sole food source. 

There is no way of knowing how the Xeni Gwet’in culture will respond to the climate 

changes. However, what is guaranteed is that the adaptation choices available to the Xeni 

Gwet’in will become fewer if the biodiversity and resiliency of the land is compromised by 

unsustainable development. If the land remains healthy and resilient, it will more easily 

adapt to the coming climate changes and the same is true for the Xeni Gwet’in traditional 

culture. 

7. The Xeni Gwet’in Vision for Sustainable Development 

The Xeni Gwet’in see themselves as stewards of the XGCA and envision sustainable development 

and human activity, grounded in an ecosystem‐based approach to land use. The community intends 

to continue to be to hunt, trap, 

fish, and collect for sustenance. They intend to ranch and guide as 

86 Argument of Plaintiff, Volume 1. Roger Williams vs the Province of BC. P. 175 

59

they traditionally have as well as take a lead role in the administration of their local government 

and its services. They also intend to be engaged in new activities such as eco‐forestry and value‐ 

added wood processing,cultural tourism, organic/naturalagriculture and alternative energy 

development. However, they intend to pursue these opportunities while minimizing impacts on the 

land 

and waters, leaving them as much as possible in a self‐sustaining and wild state, so that there 

continues to be clean water, clean air and abundant fish and wildlife. 

There may be other opportunities that the community may pursue but development in the XGCA 

must strengthen the community’s well‐being, its capacity for self‐sufficiency as well as the Xeni 

Gwet’in people’s capacity to realize their dreams and aspirations. Future development may utilize 

the 

best of mainstream technology and practices but it must also respect and conserve traditional 

values and practices of the Xeni Gwet’in culture. 

The Xeni Gwet’in welcome the opportunity to work cooperatively with all their neighbours within 

the XGCA and outside to develop sustainable activities that are consistent with this vision. 

8. Xeni Gwet’in Climate Change Adaptation Strategies 

Adaptation 

to climate change can occur in many ways. Below are strategies that are based on the 

WEHAB+ 

framework used in the Vulnerability Assessment. 

8.1. Biodiversity Protection and Conservation 

The protection and conservation of biodiversity in the XGCA is the foundation for community 

resiliency in the XGCA. A healthy and resilient ecosystem allows for a healthy and resilient 

community and therefore a key strategy in the Xeni Gwet’in’s adaptation plan must include the 

protection and conservation of biodiversity. The following are number of measures recommended 

by 

the community and the consultants to protect and conserve the biodiversity of the XGCA. They 

are 

divided into general, wildlife & wild horse and wild plant categories. 

Objective #1. Maintain the XGCA ecosystem(s) intac t 

• Limit fragmentation of the XGCA area by roads, clearcuts, mines and real estate 

development (ongoing) 

• Adopt an ecosystem‐based planning approach to all land use in the XGCA (short‐term) 

• Prohibit industrial logging and forestry in the area (ongoing) 

• Limit access to the XGCA wilderness, restricting road, water and air access 

to designated 

areas (ongoing access management) 

• Establish baseline indicator data for biodiversity in the XGCA (short‐term) 

Objective #2. Conserve Wildlife and Wild Horses in the XGCA 

• Establish clear protocols for sustainable range management with stakeholders (ongoing) 

• Integrate natural and prescribed burns into the Wild Fire Protection Plan‐ to restore 

grassland and mixed forest/grassland ecosystems (short‐term) 

• Integrate peat preservation into Wild Fire Protection Plan (ensure peat meadow fires are 

extinguished after wildfires ) (short‐term) 

60

• Monitor 

indicator wildlife stocks and limit commercial, recreational and subsistence hunting 

if 

stocks decline 

• Investigate habitat modification to retain certain species (forest thinning to improve moose 

winter range) (Long‐term) 

• Restrict hunting during mating season (short‐term) 

• Catch wild horses, train them and use them as stock (short‐term) 

Box 4: Community Ideas for Biodiversity Protection 

Community Ideas – Biodiversity Protection 

Wildlife 1. Reduce commercial/recreational hunting 

2. Control subsistence hunting (take only what you need) 

3. Xeni Gwet’in start monitoring for 

poaching and over‐hunting (set up road 

check points) 

4. No industrial logging or mining 

5. Stop littering and polluting 

6. Restrict hunting during mating season 

Fish 

1. Reduce commercial/recreational fish catches 

2. Control subsistence fishing (take 

only what you need) 

3. Work with lodges to monitor and control catches 

4. No industrial logging or mining 

5. Clear beaver dams from streams 

6. Stop polluting the waters, esp. fire retardants 

and pesticides 

7. Catch only big fish (leave small fish) 

8. No net fishing 

Wild Horses 

1. No shooting of wild horses. If wish to cull the herd, catch them and sell them 

as stock. 

Objective #3. Conserve Fish Stocks 

• Monitor fish stocks and limit commercial, recreational 

and subsistence fishing if stocks 

continue to decline (short‐term) 

• Limit fish catches to large fish only (short‐term) 

• Transplant or re‐introduce fish stocks to new or extirpated lakes or streams (mid to long‐ 

term) 

• Preserve pristine watersheds from unsustainable development 

(e.g. Prosperity Mine) (short‐ 

term) 

• Implement low impact irrigation practices (short‐term) 

61

• Dam and store water at Abelachez Lake to release water during the late summer months if 

necessary (mid to long‐term) 

• Improve fish passages by clearing culverts and streams of debris and beaver dams (ongoing) 

• Encourage low impact forestry (if forestry is pursued) to protect riparian areas (short‐term) 

• Encourage low impact ranching (fence cattle, control runoff 

and designate watering areas) to 

protect riparian areas. Nemiah creek is a particular concern. (short‐term) 

• Clean or install new gravels at Nemiah Creek (short‐term) 

• Encourage riparian planting where needed (mid to long‐term) 

• See Water Protection and Conservation for more recommendations 

Objective #4. Preserve Wild Plants in the XGCA 

• Transplant traditional food/medicine plants that require moist to wet habitats (wild potato, 

glacier lily, bear tooth, trapper tea, Indian hellebore and raspberry) (mid to long‐term). 

Assist migration as habitats shrink or move. 

8.2. Health and Safety Enhancements 

Wild fire protection and prevention is perhaps the most urgent need in terms of adaptation for the 

Xeni Gwet’in community although flood protection may be an increasing threat as well. Large wild 

fires have already begun (summer 2009) and will likely continue. An emergency evacuation plan is 

in place, which will cover mass evacuation in the event of a wild fire and other events (floods). The 

recent 

wild fire protection plan developed by the community lays out a number of preventive 

strategies 

to address the risks in the short‐term as follows: 

Obje ctive 

#1. Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from Wild Fires in the XGCA 

Short‐term 

• Deliver FireSmart hand‐outs to all households to encourage FireSmart landscaping for 

individual residences. 

• Develop and pass a Band Council Resolution, with Band policy implemented, requiring that 

all future home construction, modifications, and renovations conform to FireSmart 

standards. 

• Work closely with the appropriate agencies to carry out the necessary repairs to the mesh 

around the waste disposal pit and clear the forested area at least 30 metres around the 

entire perimeter. 

• Acquire sufficient wildland firefighting equipment for 10 firefighters. 

• Acquire sufficient equipment to manage and minimize wildfire threat i.e. mulcher, chipper. 

• Appoint one individual with the responsibility to co‐ordinate wildland firefighting activities 

through equipment acquisition and maintenance, and training coordination and supervision 

of firefighters. 

• Obtain a Structural Protection Unit capable of deployment on up to three buildings at once. 

• Work with the appropriate agencies to upgrade existing airstrips located in the XGCA that 

have been identified to date (Chilko and Nemiah) to provide a better alternative for 

emergency evacuation and address the population increases during the season where there 

is the most risk for wildfires in the area. 

• Fuel modification and other works identified should be carried out on the areas listed 

in 

Appendix 1 to help minimize the potential impact of a forest fire on structures. 

• Obtain appropriate insurance coverage for all Xeni Gwet’in homes and public assets 

62

• Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have a copy of the Community Wildfire Protection 

Plan. 

Mid to Long‐term Measures 

• Coordinate FireSmart practices with wilderness lodgesand residents in the area. Establish 

a 

fire safety committee for XGCA. 

• Cut Fire Breaks or reduce fuel loads around the key cultural sites outside Nemiah Valley. 

• Undertake road side thinning along the road from Nemiah through to the Stone 

reserve and 

from the north Chilko Lake through to the highway. 

• Salvage dead pine in high lightening strike areas off reserve where feasible 

• Re‐introduce fire and identify areas where natural fires will be allowed to burn 

These 

ideas are more comprehensive than those suggested by the community but they fairly 

consistent 

(see Box 5) 

Box 

5: Community Ideas for Wildfire Protection 

Community Ideas – Wild Fire Protection 

1. Fire safety education and education about emergency evacuation procedures for 

community members 

2. More investment in silviculture in the area for spacing, thinning and controlled 

burning 

3. Cut fireguards and cutting of beetle kill wood around the settlement areas in 

reserves 

4. Establish a local fire crew, provide equipment and contact list and have fire kits 

(hoses, axes, etc.) at all fire hydrants in the community 

5. Restrict forest fire suppression in select (high risk) areas that don’t endanger life 

or property 

6. Harvest beetle kill wood and remove it. 

7. Remove fire hazards (dead trees, glass, oil etc.) from around houses 

Objective 

#2. Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from Floods in the XGCA 

Short‐term 

• Develop a Flood Protection Plan for high risk areas near homes, roads and cultural sites 

• Contact Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium to undertake hydrological modeling in area to 

determine long‐term flood risk in the area. 

• Ensure that appropriate 

partner agencies have a copy of the Flood Protection Plan. 

Mid to Long‐term 

• Monitor key lake, river and stream levels 

• Acquire flood protection supplies and equipment from partnering agencies as needed. 

63

8.3. Water Supply Protection and Conservation 

Water is crucial to life and healthy potable water is crucial to good health. The Xeni Gwet’in and 

most other residents of the XGCA enjoy excellent water resources. To maintain secure sufficient 

volumes of quality water the follow recommendations are made: 

Objective 

#1. Protect Key Potable Water Sources 

Short‐term87 

• Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about water protection (disposal of toxic chemicals, 

protection from livestock, water quality standards) 

• Prohibit industrial logging and mining in the XGCA (no Prosperity 

Mine) 

• Fence streams from cattle and designate cattle watering areas 

• Establish a recycling depot in Nemiah for toxic chemicals 

• Remove garbage that may leach toxic chemicals 

into water system (old cars, appliances, 

drums of chemicals, etc.) 

• Clean up debris and garbage from streams 

• Collect baseline data for key glaciers and rivers, lakes & aquifers (Klokon) in the XGCA 

• Establish weather stations or rainfall monitoring equipment in several key locations 

in the 

XGCA 

• Continue water quality monitoring 

on key lakes, rivers, streams and aquifers 

• Begin water flow and temperature monitoring beyond the Chilko and Taseko rivers 

• Begin glacier monitoring 

• Monitor the water 

chemistry of Cheolquoit Lake (potential test case) 


• Coordinate water protection protocols with all wilderness lodges in the XGCA ensuring all 

parties meet the Canadian Water Quality Standards. 

Objective 

#2. Conserve Potable Water 

Short‐term 

• Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members 

about water conservation measures (reduced usage 

techniques) 

• Repair pipe, faucet and toilet leaks 

• Install low flow faucets and toilet tank boosters 


• Install rainfall collectors and cisterns, at least for non‐potable uses. 

• Examine the need for water reservoirs to store peak flows for summer 

These ideas are more comprehensive than those suggested by the community but they are fairly 

consistent (Box 6). A recurring action item put forward by the community was to restrict the 

industrial logging and mining in the XGCA. Prosperity Mine, in particular, was seen as a significant 

threat to the water quality of the area. 

Box 

6: Community Ideas for Water Conservation and Protection 

Community Ideas – Water Conservation 

and Protection 

Ma 

1. 

2. 

Prohibit 

of these recommendations 

industrial mining 

are 

(Prosperity 

courtesy of 

Mine) 

Cariboo 

and 

Envirotech. 

logging 

More efficient water use. 

3. Investigate alternate wells for community or sub‐divisions 

4. Clean up streams of debris and beaver dams. Trap beaver. 

5. Protect water from litter and pollution. Recycle. Don’t dump oil and anti‐freeze on ground. 

87 ny 

64

8.4. Food Supply Protection and Diversification 

Wild foods are crucial to the health and the culture of the Xeni Gwet’in community but there is also 

realization that more cultivated foods (rather than store bought foods) could also enrich the 

community and make it more resilient to climate change. 

Objective #2. Conserve and Use Wild Food Sources 

• Preserve biodiversity (see biodiversity) 

• Continue to subsistence hunt, fish and collect (but take only what you need) (ongoing) 

• Continue to educate youth about hunting, fishing and collecting (ongoing) 

• Transplant or cultivate traditional plant foods/medicines that are stressed to new more 

hospitable areas of the XGCA (long‐term) 

Objective #2. Increase Development and Diet Cultivated Food Sources 

• Examine interest in raising cattle and poultry for sustenance (short‐term) 

• Investigate community/household slaughter options (short‐term) 

• Host workshop to educate Xeni Gwet’in members on how to start gardens and green houses 

(short‐term) 

• Establish clear protocols for sustainable range management with stakeholders (ongoing) 

• Explore low impact irrigation system to produce more hay (mid‐term) 

• Explore opportunities for new crops that are suitable to warmer climate and wildlife (mid‐ 

term) 

Objective #3. Increase Preservation of Wild and Cultivated Foods 

• Host workshops to educate and encourage Xeni Gwet’in members to start canning, drying 

and using root cellars 

Box 7: Community Ideas for Food Diversification 

Community Ideas – Food Diversification 

1. Hunt, fish, trap and collect wild roots and berries 

2. Prohibit industrial mining and logging 

3. Raise and butcher cows and chickens for meat 

4. More gardening and greenhouses 

5. Preserve/can more berries, fish, meat and vegetables 

6. Bring back root cellars 

7. Put in proper irrigation systems for hay production 

8. More education for growing vegetables 

8.5. Shelter and Infrastructure Protection 

Shelter and infrastructure are most at risk from wildfires and floods and from mould and mildew 

issues. Section XX (Health and Safety) discusses wild fire and flood protection strategies at length 

65

so no further elaboration is required. Mould and mildew problems are addressed in Objective 2 

below. 

Objective #1. Protect Shelter and Infrastructure 

• See Health and Safety recommendations 

Objective 

#2. Reduce risk of Mould, Mildew and Rot 

Short‐term 

• Continue monitor for mould, mildew and rot 

on a regular basis and apply housing 

renovation funds where available (short‐term) 

• Educate householders about how to monitor for mould, mildew and rot, how to ventilate 

their homes properly 

and how fix minor leaks (short‐term) 


• Examine the need to redesign new housing for wetter and milder winters (e.g. better 

ventilation systems, better exterior drainage and wider roof overhangs) (long‐term) 

8.6. Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and Diversification 

Energy systems are most at risk from wildfires and floods. Section 8.2 (Health and Safety) 

discusses wild fire and flood protection strategies at some length so no further elaboration is 

required. Energy conservation and diversification are discussed in objectives 2 and 3. 

Objective #1. Protect Existing Energy Sources 


Objective 

#2. Strengthen Energy Conservation 

Short‐term 

• Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public building for drafts and install weather stripping 

where necessary 

• Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public buildings for insulation quality and install new 

insulation where necessary 

• Where relevant replace incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent 

bulbs and 

conventional power bars with smart power bars 

• Where feasible install root cellars or cold rooms to supplement refrigeration 


• Where feasible replace old fridges and stoves with energy smart ones 

Objective 

#3 Continue Energy Diversification 

Short‐term 

• Continue to expand the hybrid systems (particularly the solar aspect) where cost effective 

• Explore mini‐wind units for hybrid systems 

• Continue to pursue mini‐hydro development but test for sensitivity to increased summer 

drought conditions. 


66

• Explore other renewable energy supply options such as wind, solar, geothermal and linking 

into the BC hydro grid system. 

• Explore a district biomass heating system or a geothermal system for Xeni Gwet’in public 

buildings and the school 

• Explore the development of wind energy at the boundary of the XGCA for sale into the 

BChydro grid 

Box 8: Community Ideas for Energy Diversification 

Community Ideas – Energy 


1. More solar panels for hybrid systems 

2. Wind power on reserve 

3. Wind power near boundary of XGCA to sell into BCHydro grid 

8.7. Livelihood Diversification 

Moving the Xeni Gwet’in toward greater economic diversification will increase the level of wealth in 

the community, reduce dependence on federal government transfers, and increase the level of 

autonomy of the community has to make its own decisions. Moreover, if this diversification is done 

in a sustainable manner and it is planned with future climate changes in mind, it will strengthen 

community resilience. The three sectors that show particular promise for sustainable development 

are nature‐based aboriginal tourism, natural or organic based agriculture and eco‐forestry. These 

sectors should be developed with potential climate change impacts in mind. There may also be 

other enterprise opportunities arising out of housing and infrastructure upgrades, fire and flood 

protection, water conservation and biodiversity protection (adaptive enterprise development). 

Objective #1. Develop Naturebased Aboriginal Tourism 

Short‐term 

• Continue access management planning and measures 

• Integrate cultural conservation and tourism development plans into the wild fire protection 

plan and measures 

• Integrate tourism development plans into the community emergency evacuation plans 

• Pursuekey key key airstrip improvements 

• Investigate business 

and property insurance for on and off‐reserve tourism enterprises 


• Develop and market non‐fishing based products if fish 

stocks continue 

to decline 

• Expand spring and fall shoulder season products if climate 

permits 

• See biodiversity section for more recommendations 

Obj ective 

#2. Develop Ecoforestry an d Wood Products Short‐term 

• Integrate wild fire protection planning and measures into eco‐forestry 

development 

planning 

• Undertake eco‐forestry plan with new climate projections in mind 

• Explore viability of FSC certification for forest and wood products 

67

• Re‐introduce fire and allow natural fires in select areas 

• Explore business 

opportunities identified in Xeni Gwet’in Fibre Needs Analysis 


• Plant species mixes (in particular more Douglas‐fir) with shelter 

to protect from frost 

• Preserve and encourage aspen and other deciduous species 


Objective 

#3. Develop Natural/Organic Agriculture 

Short‐term 

• Assess feasibility of organic/natural beef business 

• Undertake an ecosystem‐based plan for agriculture and tie in with tourism plans 

• Integrate agriculture development plans into the wild fire protection plan 

and flood 

protection plan 

• Investigate low impact irrigations options for hay production and other crops 

• Explore range land management solutions to over grazing 

• Integrate agriculture development plans into the community emergency evacuation plan, 

particularly livestock 

evacuation contingencies 


• Investigate new cultivation opportunities, particularly drought resistant varieties and water 

conservation techniques to cope with warmer and drier summers 

• Control Invasive (non‐native) species as grasslands expand, especially near roadsides. 

• Investigate business and property insurance for on and off‐reserve agricultural enterprises 

Objective #4. Develop Other Adaptive Enterprise Opportunities 

• Explore enterprise opportunities arising out of other adaptation measures (water, energy, 

food, biodiversity, shelter and infrastructure etc.) 

8.8. Good Governance 

Good governance in the face of climate change is about building community resilience towards 

climate impacts. The Xeni Gwet’in government is the key mobilizer in this task and has a lead role 

in all of the recommendations of this report, whether it be protecting XGCA biodiversity, managing 

health and safety, protecting community infrastructure and housing, diversifying the local economy 

or controlling access management into the XGCA. These things will not happen without its 

direction. However, it cannot undertake all of these responsibilities alone, so it is important that it 

consult with the Xeni Gwet’in members and other residents of the region regarding its adaptation 

plans to get buy‐in and partnerships wherever possible to see its plans realized. 

Objective #1. Incorporate Climate Adaptation Strategies into Local Governance 

Objectives 

Short‐term 

• Inform and consult with Xeni Gwet’in population re adaptation plans 

• Review priorities and determine what measures it will implement first 

• Apply for Phase II funding to begin implementing the Adaptation Strategy 

• Contact key regional, provincial and federal government to inform about adaptation plans 

and solicit resources and expertise to implement 

68


• Integrate climate adaptation objectives into all local government 

planning 

• Monitor climate changes and review priorities as necessary 

8.9. Cultural Preservation 

Protecting the culture of the Xeni Gwet’in people is key to protecting the land and visa versa. 

Through the wisdom and the knowledge of the elders, the Xeni Gwet’in know‐how to live off and 

care for the land. This wisdom protects the land. At the same time, the health of the Xeni Gwet’in 

traditional culture is closely linked to the health of the land, since the Xeni Gwet’in culture is closely 

tied to their hunting, fishing and collecting. Protecting the Xeni Gwet’in culture therefore involves 

retaining use and knowledge of the Chilcotin language and customs but it also involves protecting 

the health of the XGCA ecosystem. 

Objective #1. Protect the Xeni Gwet’in Culture 

• Continue to identify and protect cultural assets in the XGCA 

• Integrate the protection of cultural sites into wild fire 

protection plan and flood protection 

plan and access management plan 


Box 9: Community Ideas for Cultural Protection 

: 

Community Ideas – Cultural Protection 

1. Protect the land and it will protect the people 

2. More cultural education of youth by elders and parents at home 

3. More speaking to youth in our language by parents and elders at home and at school 

4. More living off the land (hunting, fishing and collecting) and learning traditional ways from 

elders 

5. Acknowledge and celebrate the elders 

6. More community gatherings, potlucks and sweat lodges 

Objective #2. Celebrate the Xeni Gwet’in Culture 

• Encourage elders and parents to speak Chilcotin to the children at home. 

• Continue to teach children about hunting, fishing, collecting and living from the land 

• Continue to support Chilcotin studies in school and Culture Day 

• Continue to support the traditional gatherings, healing ceremonies and sweats 

69

Biodiversity Protection and Conservation 


Objective 

Maintain the 

XGCA as an intact 

ecosystem 

Conserve Wildlife 

and Wild Horses 

in the XGCA 

Actions Priority 88 

• Limit fragmentation of the XGCA area by roads, 

clearcuts, mines and real estate development 

• Deactivate/de‐commission unnecessary roads 

• Adopt an ecosystem‐based planning approach 

to all land use in the XGCA 

• Prohibit industrial logging and forestry in the 

area (ongoing) 

• Adopt Xeni Gwet’in Proposed Access 

Management Plan 

• Establish baseline indicator data for 

biodiversity in the XGCA (short‐term) 

• Obtain recognition from local to international 

level (e.g. IUCN) of the unique biodiversity 

qualities of the XGCA 

• Undertake a range management plan and 

establish clear protocols for sustainable range 

management with stakeholders 

• Integrate natural and prescribed burns into 

the Wild Fire Protection Plan‐ to restore 

grassland and mixed forest/grassland 

ecosystems 

• Integrate peat preservation into Wild Fire 

Protection Plan (ensure peat meadow fires are 

extinguished after wildfires ) 

• Monitor indicator wildlife stocks and limit 

commercial, recreational and subsistence 

hunting if stocks decline 

• Manage wildlife species that are traditional 

foods such as moose and deer with a priority 

for Xeni subsistence first 

• Habitat enhancement for grizzly, moose, big 

horn sheep and Whitebark to retain certain 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

2 

4 

2 

Responsibility Timeframe 

89 

Council 

Council 

Council 

Council & Access Mgt 

Committee 

Science Committee 

Nemiah Stockman’s 

Association 

Fire Protection 

Committee 


Committee 

Fish & Wildlife 

Committee 


Committee 


Committee 

Ongoing 

Short‐term 

Ongoing 

Ongoing 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Ongoing 

Long‐term 

Short‐term 

Funding 

Required 

70

Conserve Fish 

Stocks 

• Restrict hunting during mating season 

• Keep domestic horses off wild horse and cattle 

range unless under permit 

• Undertake wild horse habitat mapping 

• Catch wild horses regularly and sell them for 

stock (do not kill) 

• Protect migratory and resident birds and 

species at risk 

• Ensure protection of special natural features 

and specialized wildlife and fish habitats 

• Manage trails, campgrounds and residences to 

minimize conflicts with grizzly and black 

bears 

• Monitor fish stocks and limit commercial, 

recreational and subsistence fishing if stocks 

continue to decline 

• Limit fish catches to large fish only 

• Transplant or re‐introduce fish stocks to new 

or extirpated lakes or streams 

• Preserve pristine watersheds from 

unsustainable development (e.g. Prosperity 

Mine) 

• Implement low impact irrigation practices 


• Dam and store water at Abelachez Lake to 

release water during the late summer months 

if necessary 

• Improve fish passages by clearing culverts and 

streams of debris and beaver dams 

• Encourage low impact forestry (if forestry is 

pursued) to protect riparian areas 

• Encourage low impact ranching (fence cattle, 

control runoff and designate watering areas) 

to protect riparian areas. Nemiah creek is a 

particular concern. 

• Clean or install new gravels at Nemiah Creek 


• Encourage riparian planting where needed 

1 

2 

1 

2 

2 

2 

1 

1 

3 

1 

3 

4 

1 

1 

1 

1 

4 


Committee 






Committee 


Committee 


Committee 


Committee 


Committee 


Committee 

Council 




Committee 


Committee 

Council 

Council 


Committee 


Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid to Long‐ 

term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 


71

Preserve Wild 

Plants & the 

Habitats in the 

XGCA 

(mid to long‐term) 

NOTE See Water Protection and Conservation 

for more recommendations 

• Transplant traditional food/medicine plants 

that require moist to wet habitats (wild potato, 

glacier lily, bear tooth, trapper tea, Indian 

hellebore and raspberry) (mid to long‐term). 

Assist migration as habitats shrink or move. 

Health and Safety Enhancements 


Objective 

Protect Residents 

and Key Cultural 

Sites from Wild 

Fires in the XGCA 

1 

Committee 

Elders 

term 


term 

Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding 

Required 

• Deliver FireSmart hand‐outs to all households 1 Fire Protection Short‐term 

to encourage FireSmart landscaping for 

individual residences. 

Committee 

• Develop and pass a Band Council Resolution, 

with Band policy implemented, requiring that 

all future home construction, modifications, 

and renovations conform to FireSmart 

standards. 

1 Council 

Short‐term 

• Work closely with the appropriate agencies to 

carry out the necessary repairs to the mesh 

around the waste disposal pit and clear the 

forested area at least 30 metres around the 

entire perimeter. 

1 Council 

Short‐term 

• 

• 

Acquire sufficient wildland firefighting 

equipment for 10 firefighters. 

Acquire sufficient equipment to manage and 

minimize wildfire threat i.e. mulcher, chipper. 

1 

1 


Committee 


Committee 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

• Appoint one individual with the responsibility 

to co‐ordinate wildland firefighting activities 

through equipment acquisition and 

1 Council 

Short‐term 

maintenance, and training coordination and 

supervision of firefighters. 

1 Council 

Short‐term 

72

Protect Residents 

and Key Cultural 

Sites from Floods 

in the XGCA 

• Obtain a Structural Protection Unit capable of 

deployment on up to three buildings at once. 

• Work with the appropriate agencies to 

upgrade existing airstrips located in the XGCA 

that have been identified to date (Chilko and 

Nemiah). 

• Fuel modification and other works identified 

should be carried out on the areas listed in 

Appendix 1. 

• Obtain appropriate insurance coverage for all 

Xeni Gwet’in homes and public assets 

• Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have 

a copy of the Community Wildfire Protection 

Plan. 

• Coordinate FireSmart practices with resorts 

and residents in the area. Establish a fire 

safety committee for XGCA. 

• Cut Fire Breaks or reduce fuel loads around the 

key cultural sites outside Nemiah Valley. 

• Undertake road side thinning along the road 

from Nemiah through to the Stone reserve and 

from the north Chilko Lake through to the 

highway. 

• Salvage dead pine in high lightening strike 

areas off reserve where feasible 

• Re‐introduce fire and identify areas where 

natural fires will be allowed to burn 

• Develop a Flood Protection Plan for high risk 

areas near homes, roads and cultural sites 

• Contact Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium to 

undertake hydrological modeling in area to 

determine long‐term flood risk in the area. 

• Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have 

a copy of the Flood Protection Plan. 

• Monitor key lake, river and stream levels 

• Acquire flood protection supplies and 

equipment from partnering agencies as 

needed. 

1 

1 

1 

1 

1 

2 

2 

3 

2 

2 

4 

3 

2 

3 

Council 


Committee 


Committee 

Council 

Council 


Committee 


Committee 


Committee 


Committee 

? 

Council/Science 

Committee 

Council 


Committee 

Health Dept 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 


term 


term 


term 


term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

73

Water Supply Protection and Conservation 


Objective 

Protect Key 

Potable Water 

Sources 

Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Required 

• Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about 

water protection (disposal of toxic chemicals, 

protection from livestock, water quality 

standards) 

• Prohibit industrial logging and mining in the 

XGCA (no Prosperity Mine) 

• Fence streams from cattle and designate cattle 

watering areas 

• Establish a recycling depot in Nemiah for toxic 

chemicals 

• Remove garbage that may leach toxic 

chemicals into water system (old cars, 

appliances, drums of chemicals, etc.) 

• Clean up debris and garbage from streams 

• Collect baseline data for key glaciers and 

rivers, lakes & aquifers (Klokon) in the XGCA 

• Establish weather stations or rainfall 

monitoring equipment in several key locations 

in the XGCA 

• Continue water quality monitoring on key 

lakes, rivers, streams and aquifers 

• Begin water flow and temperature monitoring 

beyond the Chilko and Taseko rivers 

• Begin glacier monitoring 

• Monitor the water chemistry of Cheolquoit 

Lake (potential test case) 

• Coordinate water protection protocols with all 

wilderness lodges in the XGCA ensuring all 

parties meet the Canadian Water Quality 

Standards. 

1 

1 

2 

2 

1 

1 

1 

3 

1 

2 

3 

3 

2 

Health Dept 

Council 



Recycling Committee 

Recycling Committee 

Fish & 

Wildlife/Recycling 

Watershed 

Committee 

Watershed 

Committee 

Watershed 

Committee 

Watershed 

Committee 

Watershed 

Committee 

Watershed 

Committee 

Watershed 

Committee 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

74

Conserve Potable 

Water 

• Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about 

water conservation measures (reduced usage 

techniques) 

• Repair pipe, faucet and toilet leaks 

• Install low flow faucets and toilet tank 

boosters 

• Install rainfall collectors and cisterns, at least 

for non‐potable uses. 

• Examine the need for water reservoirs to store 

peak flows for summer 

Food Supply Protection and Diversification 


Objective 

Conserve and Use 

Wild Food Sources 

Increase 

Development and 

Diet Cultivated 

Food Sources 

1 

3 

3 

3 

5 

Health Dept 

Housing Dept 

Housing Dept 

Housing Dept 

Watershed 

Committee 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

Long‐term 


• Preserve biodiversity (see biodiversity) 

• Encourage subsistence hunt, fish and collect 

(but take only what you need) 

• Continue to educate youth about hunting, 

fishing and collecting (ongoing) 

• Transplant or cultivate traditional plant 

foods/medicines that are stressed to new 

more hospitable areas of the XGCA (long‐term) 

• Examine interest in raising cattle and poultry 

for sustenance 

• Investigate community/household slaughter 

options 

• Host workshop to educate Xeni Gwet’in 

members on how to start gardens and green 

houses 

• Establish clear protocols for sustainable range 

management with stakeholders 

• Explore low impact irrigation system to 

produce more hay 

• Explore opportunities for new crops that are 

1 

1 

2 

2 

3 

1 

1 

3 

3 


Committee 


Committee 

? 


Assoc./ Health Dept 


Assoc./ Health Dept 

Health Dept 


Assoc 


Assoc 

Econ Dev 

Ongoing 

Ongoing 


term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

Mid‐term 

75

Increase 

Preservation of 

Wild and 

Cultivated Foods 

suitable to warmer climate and wildlife 

• Host workshops to educate and encourage 

Xeni Gwet’in members to start canning, 

drying and using root cellars 

Shelter and Infrastructure Protection 


Objective 

Protect Shelter 

and Infrastructure 

Reduce risk of 

Mould, Mildew 

and Rot 

1 

Health Dept 

Short‐term 



• Continue monitor for mould, mildew and 

rot on a regular basis and apply housing 

renovation funds where available 

• Educate householders about how to 

monitor for mould, mildew and rot, how to 

ventilate their homes properly and how fix 

minor leaks 

• Examine the need to redesign new housing 

for wetter and milder winters (e.g. better 

ventilation systems, better exterior 

drainage and wider roof overhangs) (long‐ 

term) 

Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and Diversification 


Objective 

1 

2 

4 

Housing Dept 

Housing Dept 

Housing Dept 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 


term 


76

Protect Existing 

Energy Sources 

Strengthen 

Energy 

Conservation 

Continue Energy 


Livelihood 



• Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public 

buildings for drafts and install weather 

stripping where necessary 

• Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public 

buildings for insulation quality and install 

new insulation where necessary 

• Where relevant replace incandescent 

bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs and 

conventional power bars with smart 

power bars 

• Where feasible install root cellars or cold 

rooms to supplement refrigeration 

• Where feasible replace old fridges and 

stoves with energy smart ones 

• Continue to expand the hybrid systems 

(particularly the solar aspect) where cost 

effective 

• Explore mini‐wind units for hybrid systems 

• Continue to pursue mini‐hydro development 

but test for sensitivity to increased summer 

drought conditions. 

• Explore other renewable energy supply 

options such as wind, solar, geothermal and 

linking into the BC hydro grid system. 

• Explore a district biomass heating system or a 

geothermal system for Xeni Gwet’in public 

buildings and the school 

• Explore the development of wind energy at the 

boundary of the XGCA for sale into the 

BChydro grid 

1 

2 

1 

3 

4 

1 

2 

1 

1 

1 

2 

Housing Dept 

Housing Dept 

Housing Dept 

Health Dept 

Housing Dept 

Xeni Gwet’in 

XG 

XG 

XG/Econ Dev 



Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid–term 

Mid‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

77


Objective 

Develop Nature‐ 

based Aboriginal 

Tourism 

Develop Eco‐ 

forestry and 

Wood Products 

Develop 


• Continue access management planning and 

measures 

• Integrate cultural conservation and tourism 

development plans into the wild fire 

protection plan and measures 

• Integrate tourism development plans into the 

community emergency evacuation plans 

• Pursue airstrip improvements 

• Investigate business and property insurance 

for on and off‐reserve tourism enterprises 

• Develop and market non‐fishing based 

products if fish stocks continue to decline 

• Expand spring and fall shoulder season 

products if climate permits 

• See biodiversity section for more 

recommendations 

• Integrate wild fire protection planning and 

measures into eco‐forestry development 

planning 

• Undertake eco‐forestry plan with new climate 

projections in mind 

• Explore viability of FSC certification for forest 

and wood products 

• Re‐introduce fire and allow natural fires in 

select areas 

• Explore business opportunities identified in 

Xeni Gwet’in Fibre Needs Analysis 

• Plant species mixes (in particular more 

Douglas‐fir) with shelter to protect from frost 

• Preserve and encourage aspen and other 

deciduous species 



• Assess feasibility of organic/natural beef 

business 

1 

1 

1 

1 

2 

2 

3 

1 

1 

2 

1 

2 

4 

4 

1 

Access Mgt 

Committee 


Committee 

Health Dept 









Committee 





Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Mid‐term 

Mid‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 


term 


term 


term 

Short‐term 

78

Natural/Organic 

Agriculture 

Develop Other 

Adaptive 

Enterprise 

Opportunities 

Good Governance 


Objective 

Incorporate 

Climate 

• Undertake an ecosystem‐based plan for 

agriculture and tie in with tourism plans 

• Integrate agriculture development plans into 

the wild fire protection plan and flood 

protection plan 

• Investigate low impact irrigations options for 

hay production and other crops 

• Explore range land management solutions to 

over grazing 

• Integrate agriculture development plans into 

the community emergency evacuation plan, 

particularly livestock evacuation contingencies 

• Investigate new cultivation opportunities, 

particularly drought resistant varieties and 

water conservation techniques to cope with 

warmer and drier summers 

• Control Invasive (non‐native) species as 

grasslands expand, especially near roadsides. 

• Investigate business and property insurance 

for on and off‐reserve agricultural enterprises 

• Explore enterprise opportunities arising out of 

other adaptation measures (water, energy, 

food, biodiversity, shelter and infrastructure 

etc.) 

1 

2 

3 

1 

2 

2 

2 

2 

2 



Committee 


Committee 


Committee 

Health Dept/Nemiah 

Stockman’s Assoc 



Committee 



Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 


term 


term 

Mid ‐term 

Short‐term 


Required 

• Inform and consult with Xeni Gwet’in 

population re adaptation plans 

1 Council 

Short‐term 

• Review priorities and determine what 

measures it will implement first 

1 Council 

Short‐term 

79


Strategies into 

Local Governance 

Objectives 

Cultural Preservation 


Objective 

Protect the Xeni 

Gwet’in Culture 

Celebrate the 

Xeni Gwet’in 

Culture 

• Apply for Phase II funding to begin 

implementing the Adaptation Strategy 

• Contact key regional, provincial and federal 

government to inform about adaptation plans 

and solicit resources and expertise to 

implement 

• Integrate climate adaptation objectives into all 

local government planning 

• Monitor climate changes and review priorities 

as necessary 

1 

2 

2 

2 


Council 

Band Mgr 

Council & 

Committees 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 

Short‐term 


term 


Required 

• Continue to identify and protect cultural assets 

in the XGCA 

1 ? 

Short‐term 

• Integrate the protection of cultural sites into 

1 Fire Protection Short‐term 

wild fire protection plan and flood protection 

plan and access management plan 

Committee 



• Encourage elders and parents to speak 

Chilcotin to the children at home. 

• Continue to teach children about hunting, 

fishing, collecting and living from the land 

• Continue to support Chilcotin studies in school 

and Culture Day 

• Continue to support the traditional gatherings, 

healing ceremonies and sweats 

1 

1 

1 

1 

? 

? 

? 

Ongoing 

Ongoing 

Ongoing 

Ongoing 

80

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Bank, 2010. Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth. Ecosystem‐based Approaches to 

Climate Change. 

86

ANNEXES – BACKGROUND PAPERS 

(NOTE –Given the size of the files, the following documents have been submitted as separate files) 

1. Tine 

Rossing (Ecolibrio): Water Resources and Climate Change in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker 

Area 

2. Deb 

Delong (Orman Consulting): Climate Change Impacts on Forests and Vegetation in the 

Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 

3. Wayne 

McCrory, RPBio: Climate Change and Wildlife and Wild Horse Impacts in the Xeni 

Gwet’in Caretaker Area 

4. 

Richard Holmes (Cariboo Envirotech Ltd.): The Impacts of Climate Change on the Fishery 

Resource in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 

87

Memorandum 

To: Federal Review Panel for the Prosperity Gold-Copper Project 

<strong>From</strong>: Ann Maest, PhD; Cameron Wobus, PhD; Constance Travers, MS; James Holmes, 

MS; Jeff Morris, PhD, Stratus Consulting Inc. 

cc: Chief Bernie Elkins, Tsilhqot’in National Government; Chief Anne Louie, 

Williams Lake Indian Band 

Date: 4/16/2010 

Subject: Information and arguments to be presented at Prosperity technical sessions 

The Tsilhqot’in National Government and the Williams Lake Indian Band retained our company, 

Stratus Consulting Inc. of Boulder, Colorado, to review the Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine 

Project environmental impact statement (EIS). On November 9, 2009, we provided our initial 

comments on the hydrometeorology model that Taseko Mines Ltd. and their contractors, Knight 

Piésold (together, the Proponents), used to make predictions about future water quantity and 

quality issues at the mine (see Document #1345). The Proponents have provided some responses 

to our initial observations. In the technical sessions during the week of April 26, 2010, we will 

reiterate and expand our critique of the Prosperity plan. 

Stratus Consulting has investigated contaminant releases from hundreds of hard-rock mine sites 

worldwide, including in Canada, the United States, Europe, Central America, Africa, South 

America, and Asia. In the combined experience of the authors of this memorandum, we have not 

seen an open pit copper mine with a waste rock and tailings storage facility (TSF) in a temperate 

climate that has not adversely impacted downstream and downgradient water quality. We will 

provide the panel with specific case studies from our collective experience that demonstrate that 

mine proponents routinely underestimate the environmental impacts of proposed mines, and that 

downgradient and downstream contaminant releases are not uncommon. 

As we outline in the following sections, we will discuss with the panel in greater detail some of 

the errors and uncertainties in the proponents’ EIS that make its predictions unreliable. After 

reviewing the EIS and subsequent responses to comments from the Proponents, we conclude that 

it is likely that the mine as proposed will release mine-related contaminants, including acidity, 

metals, metalloids, sulfate, and nitrogen compounds, into groundwater and surface water. These 

contaminants are likely to adversely impact salmonid (trout and salmon) fisheries at least in Fish 

Creek and the Taseko River. 

Dr. Ann Maest will attend the water quality and quantity sessions on Monday and Tuesday, 

April 26�27. Dr. Maest is an environmental geochemist who specializes in mine site 

geochemistry. She coauthored a comprehensive examination of predicted versus actual water 

quality impacts at large mine sites in the United States. Other authors of this memorandum will 

assist Dr. Maest via teleconference. 

SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010) 

Dr. Jeff Morris will attend the fish and fish habitat sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday, 

April 27�28. Dr. Morris is an aquatic toxicologist who has investigated the effects of heavy 

metals on salmonids in both field and laboratory toxicity studies. If possible, Dr. Josh Lipton will 

assist Dr. Morris via teleconference. 

This memorandum is organized as follows: Section 1 critiques the Proponents’ tests and models 

used to predict acid and contaminant generation from exposed rock at the mine. Section 2 

critiques the hydrometeorology model, water balance, and hydrogeologic models. Section 3 then 

discusses past experience and case studies from other mines, and Section 4 details the adverse 

effects on aquatic life of copper and cadmium released into rivers. Section 5 presents the 

qualifications of the authors of this memorandum. A list of references and materials relied upon 

is provided at the end. 

1. Contaminant Sources 

In this part of the technical sessions, Dr. Maest will provide evidence that the Proponents have 

erred in their estimation of acid and contaminant generation potential. In this section, we outline 

the information that Dr. Maest will present, including flaws identified both in geochemical 

testing and subsequently in geochemical modeling. 

1.1 Flaws in Geochemical Testing 

1.1.1 Humidity cell test flaws 

We have identified several flaws in the humidity cell test (HCT) procedures and analysis. Each 

of these flaws likely results in an underestimate of the quantity of contamination that this mine 

will generate. Specific topics of the HCTs that Dr. Maest may discuss at the technical meetings 

include the following: 

�� The rock types used in the HCTs are not representative of the rock types at the proposed 

project. Many HCT samples had sulfide values lower and neutralizing potential to acid 

potential (NP:AP) ratios higher than those for rocks that are representative of pit walls. 

�� Phase 4 HCTs are not useful for evaluating the importance of metal leaching, especially 

for aquatic life concerns, because the detection limits are too high for many metals of 

concern. 

�� Kinetic tests were not conducted for long enough periods of time to reach the onset of 

acid generation or maximum leachable contaminant concentrations. 

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�� The Proponents estimate that the majority of the mined material will be potentially acidgenerating 

(PAG), yet only three of 25 HCTs became acidic with increasing 

concentrations of metals, again suggesting flaws in the geochemical testing approach and 

methodology. 

�� Many of the HCTs show an initial pulse or release of contaminants, but this was not 

taken into account in the predictions of contaminant concentrations in water resources. 

1.1.2 Short-term leach tests and identification of contaminants of concern 

The short-term leach tests were not conducted in a manner that allowed estimation of 

contaminant generation. Specific points that Dr. Maest may discuss include the following: 

�� Short-term leach tests were too dilute to be used for identification of contaminants of 

concern. 

�� The elevated concentrations of antimony in the shake flask tests appear to be have been 

ignored in modeling of downstream/downgradient transport. 

�� Saturated column tests with elevated iron concentrations also had elevated arsenic 

concentrations, which was not adequately considered in tailings seepage modeling. 

�� The list of contaminants of concern developed by the Proponents ignores other miningrelated 

contaminants such as nitrate, nitrite, and ammonia. 

1.2 Flaws in Geochemical Modeling 

Dr. Maest will also discuss flaws in the Proponents’ geochemical modeling. Some of the topics 

that she may discuss in the technical sessions include the following: 

�� Contaminants potentially leached from tailings materials stored in the tailings storage 

facility (TSF) under either oxidizing or reducing conditions were excluded from the 

tailings model. 

�� Lag times to acid generation for PAG rocks are greatly underestimated. Using the one 

HCT that became highly acidic after 40 weeks as a calibration point, we estimate that the 

time to onset of acid for PAG rocks is at least an order of magnitude less than predicted. 

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�� Given the underestimate in lag time to acid generation, we believe there is a substantial 

risk that exposed wall rock in pit walls will generate large quantities of acid and 

contaminants before the pit is inundated. 

�� Similarly, we believe there is a substantial risk that the PAG waste stored within the 

tailings impoundment can generate acid before it is submerged, or if the tailings 

impoundment becomes unsaturated in the future. 

Each of the factors that Dr. Maest will discuss support our conclusion that the Proponents have 

greatly underestimated the potential of this mine to generate substantial quantities of acid, 

metals, and other contaminants. 

2. Mine Site Water Balance and Hydrogeology 

As we discussed in our previous report last November, we believe that the limited site-specific 

data on which the Proponents rely are not sufficient to support the probabilistic water balance 

models that they have generated for the Prosperity Project. Their recent responses to our 

November report have not adequately addressed many of our initial concerns. In addition, we 

believe that the Proponents’ models of contaminant transport in groundwater fail to account for 

the large uncertainty in their underlying data, potentially resulting in unforeseen groundwater 

contaminant plumes and discharge of contaminants to Big Onion Lake and, potentially, the 

Taseko River. 

Dr. Maest will summarize some of the shortcomings in the hydrometeorology modeling and will 

review remaining concerns, as well as provide examples of failures in hydrologic predictions at 

other mine sites (see Section 3). In summary, we are concerned that if the water balance does not 

adequately account for the wide range of potential variations in water input over time, there 

remains a significant risk that water levels in the TSF will not be maintained, allowing oxidation 

of mine waste materials when water levels drop during dry periods, and subsequent transport of 

contaminants via groundwater seepage and from releases during storm events. 

2.1 Maintaining Water Levels in TSF 

The Proponent has proposed inundating tailings and PAG rock in the TSF, where a static water 

level will need to be maintained in perpetuity. If an event such as a drought or unforeseen 

seepage causes water levels in the TSF to drop, sulfides in the waste material will oxidize, 

resulting in acid generation and metals leaching. Specific criticisms of the Proponents’ plan for 

the TSF include the following: 

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�� The EIS shows PAG waste storage above the level of the supernatant pond in year 5 of 

operations. As discussed in the previous section, the subaerial exposure of PAG waste 

will increase the likelihood of acid generation in the impoundment. 

�� The Proponents claim that extra water could be readily obtained from other sources 

during low-probability dry events (droughts). In a water balance analysis that they 

released last October, they state that the TSF pond volume would dry up completely in a 

modeled drought scenario unless flows were supplemented by additional means. They 

have not put forth a convincing argument that they will have the “additional means” to 

make up for the shortfall. 

�� The Proponents have proposed a plan in which water levels in the TSF remain static in 

perpetuity, submerging the PAG waste and preventing acid generation without drying out 

or overflowing. There is no proposed mechanism to ensure that PAG waste rock remains 

submerged in perpetuity, presenting a high likelihood that the water levels will fluctuate 

and/or that expensive retrofitting to maintain water levels will be required. 

Other aspects of the TSF water balance are addressed below. 

2.2 TSF Seepage 

Under many of the Proponents’ water balance scenarios, they predict periods during which there 

may be insufficient water to ensure waste in the TSF remains submerged. Under these scenarios, 

tailings material and PAG waste will be exposed to the atmosphere. However, even these 

scenarios are based on a likely underestimate of groundwater seepage out of the TSF. Infiltration 

losses from the TSF to groundwater in all versions of the site water balance may be 

underestimated for the following reasons: 

�� The Proponents assume the hydraulic conductivity of the till underlying a portion of the 

TSF is 1 x 10 -6 cm/s in their estimate of TSF seepage, but this value is five times lower 

than the geometric mean conductivity from the hydraulic tests that were conducted in this 

unit. 

�� Hydraulic conductivity estimates from the basalt below the glacial till range across four 

orders of magnitude (a factor of 10,000), which likely reflects localized control of 

fractures on groundwater flow. However, the Proponents’ sensitivity analyses conducted 

to estimate uncertainty in infiltration losses range by only a factor of 25. Seepage through 

basalt bedrock will preferentially occur in high permeability zones, such that the actual 

seepage rates in bedrock could be substantially higher than their maximum predicted 

rates. 

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The net result is a potential underestimate of seepage, and thus an overestimate of the ability of 

the TSF to retain water and maintain saturated conditions for PAG waste. The large range of 

uncertainties in hydraulic conductivity in bedrock beneath the TSF also underscores the 

uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of groundwater contamination reaching Big 

Onion Lake. 

2.3 Issues With Water Balance Model 

The Proponents’ baseline precipitation and streamflow data are inadequate to characterize the 

inflows and outflows to their water balance model. The net result is that their water balance 

likely has far greater uncertainty than represented by their probabilistic model. 

2.3.1 Precipitation and runoff data 

We identified several issues with the precipitation and runoff data that the Proponents used in 

their water balance model. Most of these issues were raised in our November report, and we 

were unconvinced by the Proponents’ responses. Some example issues that Dr. Maest may 

address include the following: 

�� Site-specific precipitation data are of very poor quality and are unreliable. The 

Proponents acknowledged as much, discarding many of the site-specific data and 

suggesting that they were erroneous. 

�� Modeled long-term precipitation trends are based on correlations between one site near 

the mine and one distant site. However, in the two years for which they Proponents had 

data from each site, there did not appear to be any correlation between measured 

precipitation near the mine and measured precipitation at the distant site used for the 

long-term modeling, thus introducing a potentially large and unquantifiable uncertainty 

into the water balance. 

�� The most recent estimate of mean annual unit runoff (MAUR) – the key parameter upon 

which inputs to the water balance are based – appears to be derived from a single year of 

data from a single meteorological station. The low estimate of MAUR appears to have 

been obtained from a different gauge during the same year. We question the use of two 

data points from the same year to characterize the range of potential interannual 

variability in unit runoff. 

The Proponents have revised the water balance model several times since the initial EIS was 

released. Each iteration of the water balance modeling yields considerably different results than 

the previous iterations, providing another indication that the Proponents do not have a solid grasp 

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on these data. Given this overall level of uncertainty in their water balance, it is troubling that 

they have not included in their mine plan specific contingencies for active water capture and 

treatment (in perpetuity) and specific sources of water to maintain TSF water levels in the event 

of drought or groundwater losses. 

3. Experience <strong>From</strong> Other Mines 

As discussed in the previous section, the underlying data on which the water quality predictions 

at this mine are based are flawed. We do not believe the Proponents have adequate data to 

accurately quantify the impacts of this mine. Generally, we can state from our experience 

assessing mine sites worldwide that the scenario presented in the EIS (open pit copper mine with 

TSF, no active water treatment, and little to no anticipated adverse impacts) is not a scenario that 

we have ever seen at any other mine site. Dr. Maest will briefly discuss other reports and case 

studies that can inform the panel of the risks of this mine. 

While every mine site is unique in its characteristics such as mineral occurrences (e.g., massive 

sulfide vs. porphyritic), mining techniques (e.g., open pit vs. underground), or ore processing 

(e.g., heap leach vs. flotation), many mines with differing characteristics have had water quality 

impacts, and mine with characteristics that are similar to the Prosperity Project have had impacts 

that were not predicted. These impacts have resulted in adverse downstream impacts, or costly 

unplanned water capture and treatment systems that in many cases must be operated in 

perpetuity, or both. 

3.1 Predicted vs. Actual Water Quality at U.S. Mines 

Dr. Maest will discuss the studies of the accuracy of water quality predictions at mine sites. She 

will summarize data from a study that she conducted with James Kuipers, PE, and others in 

2005�2006. This study was an in-depth review of state-of-the-art characterization and modeling 

approaches for predicting mine water quality (Maest et al., 2005) and a comparison of predicted 

water quality impacts to actual water quality impacts at mines in the United States (Kuipers 

et al., 2006 – hereafter referred to collectively as the Maest-Kuipers study). In addition, 

Dr. Maest may discuss similar data from Schafer (2008). 

The Maest-Kuipers study reviewed over 100 mines in the U.S. that received permits after 

submitting an EIS. They chose 25 case studies in which they had sufficient data to evaluate the 

accuracy of the water quality impacts predicted in the EIS. Dr. Maest will summarize the results, 

discussing the relationship between “inherent factors” (e.g., proximity to water resources, 

contaminant leaching potential) at a mine and its effects on the environment. She will show that 

nearly every mine with inherent factors similar to Prosperity released contaminants sufficient to 

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exceed surface water and groundwater quality standards, despite predicting that they would not 

exceed any water quality standards. 

3.2 Other Case Studies 

Dr. Maest may also discuss examples from other mines, including the following: 

�� Berkeley Pit in Butte, Montana. Dr. Maest has analyzed this highly contaminated openpit 

copper mine extensively, including an analysis of the sources of contamination 

(Maest, 2001). The rock walls in the Berkeley Pit generate enough acid and metals to 

result in a pit lake with a pH of 2, copper concentrations at least three orders of 

magnitude greater than water quality criteria, contaminant concentrations sufficient to kill 

migrating snow geese who used the lake as a stopover (Adams, 1995), and a need for 

expensive water treatment in perpetuity. 

�� Harvard Pit in Jamestown, California. The water model developed for this pit lake in the 

mid-1990s estimated that it would reach an elevation of 387 m in 2025, with water not 

reaching the 402-m level of the alluvial aquifer until many years later. In fact, the water 

level reached 387 m in 2008 and is now predicted to reach the alluvial aquifer in 2015 

(Mullenmeister, 2009). Expensive, perpetual water treatment will be required to prevent 

releases of this contaminated water, and the posted bond is far less than the actual cost. 

�� Buckhorn Mountain Mine, Okanogan Valley, Washington (near BC border). Dr. Maest 

has been an active participant in the review of mine management and water quality at this 

mine, on behalf of the Okanagan Highlands Alliance. Buckhorn Mountain Mine was 

originally designed as an open pit mine but failed to obtain a permit. Crown Resources, a 

subsidiary of Canadian mining company Kinross, purchased the property and redesigned 

it as an underground mine. Even with this reduced impact design, Crown was discharging 

mine contaminants at concentrations in excess of its water quality permit within one year 

after the start of mining, resulting in numerous violations of their water discharge permits 

(see, e.g., Washington Department of Ecology, 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, 2009d). They 

underestimated metals leaching from mine workings, the amount of PAG rock, and the 

effectiveness of their groundwater capture system. After one year of operation, they were 

required to extensively augment their groundwater capture system and completely 

redesign their water treatment system. 

�� Ray Mine, Ray, Arizona. Both the Maest-Kuipers report and Stratus Consulting have 

evaluated the impacts of this open pit porphyry copper mine. In the 1990s it released 

ammonia, copper, and arsenic into the Gila River such that water quality criteria were 

exceeded for up to 80 km downstream of the mine, with some samples containing mine- 

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related contaminants at concentrations 8 times higher than the water quality standard. The 

creek that drains the mine workings turned iridescent blue from released copper salts. In 

addition, floods in 1993 breached the TSF 13 times, releasing an estimated 

265,000 tonnes of tailings into the Gila River (Kuipers et al., 2006; Lipton, 2009). 

3.3 Tailings Dam Failures 

Tailings dam failures are not uncommon (see, e.g., Davies, 2002; WISE Uranium Project, 2009). 

The U.S. Commission on Large Dams (USCOLD), the International Commission on Large 

Dams (ICOLD), and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) have each compiled 

tailings dam failures over the years. USCOLD compiled a list of 185 tailings dam failure 

incidents as of 1994, and UNEP and ICOLD compiled a list of 221 tailings dam failure incidents 

(WISE Uranium Project, 2009). Dr. Maest will briefly summarize these data. 

She will also present a recent analysis of tailings dam failures in the European Union (EU), in 

which the authors conclude that most failures occur at operating mines that fail to adequately 

design for floods (Rico et al., 2008a). Data from the EU and other sources suggest that a failure 

of the TSF dam at Prosperity would result in a tailings plume extending many hundreds of 

kilometers downstream (Rico et al., 2008b), impacting the Taseko, Chilcotin, Chilco, and Fraser 

rivers. 

Dr. Maest may include specific examples of tailings dam failures, such as: 

�� The 1990 Matachewan Mines tailings dam failure in Ontario (Baker et al., 1996), in 

which an estimated 190,000 m 3 of tailings were released into Davidson Creek and the 

Montreal River, filling the Davidson Creek floodplain with tailings, depositing an 

estimated 90,000 m 3 of tailings into the bed sediments of the Montreal River, and 

creating a plume of suspended fine tailings that was visible until the Montreal River 

entered Lake Temiskaming 168 km downstream. 

�� The 2000 Baia Mare tailings dam failure in Romania, in which a dam designed by Knight 

Piésold failed after only 8 months of operation, killing an estimated 1,240 tonnes of fish, 

extirpating endangered salmon and sturgeon from one river, and affecting drinking water 

for 2 million people. The EU commission that investigated the spill blamed it in part on a 

poor water balance model that did not account for the expected range of water inputs, as 

well as a faulty dam design by Knight-Piésold (Baia Mare Task Force, 2000). 

�� The 1975 failure of a tailings dam in the Upper Blackfoot River in Montana, which 

destroyed aquatic habitat and riparian vegetation for several kilometers. Now 35 years 

later, the area is still nearly devoid of aquatic life (Holmes and Lipton, 2007). 

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3.4 Adaptive Management 

Dr. Maest will critique the Proponents’ suggestion that they can address unplanned contaminant 

releases with adaptive management. She will present information from a recently published 

governmental guide for adaptive management (Williams et al., 2009) that specifies the need for 

proponents to adequately plan for and mitigate all potential impacts, using adaptive management 

as an incremental step to adjust existing plans rather than as a strategy to avoid testing, 

monitoring, mitigation and mine planning. Dr. Maest will discuss examples where adaptive 

management has been attempted, including previous case studies in which mining companies 

either failed entirely to address the contamination they generated or were required to retrofit with 

very expensive water capture and treatment designs that they will need to maintain in perpetuity. 

4. Effects of Metals on Salmonid Fisheries 

Given the risk that Taseko has underestimated contaminant generation and transport, plus their 

lack of planned water capture and treatment onsite and the preponderance of evidence from other 

mine sites, it is highly likely that mine contaminants will be released to downstream and 

downgradient resources. Specifically, we believe that heavy metals likely will be released to Fish 

Creek, Big Onion Lake, and the Taseko River, at concentrations that could exceed the 

proponent’s “worst case scenario” by orders of magnitude. Metals releases to cold-water 

fisheries could have profound adverse impacts on aquatic biota. To illustrate examples of such 

effects, Dr. Morris will present data from many toxicology studies that have examined the effects 

of heavy metals on fish, with Dr. Josh Lipton on teleconference if possible. 

As mentioned previously, the underlying data on which the water quality predictions at this mine 

are based are flawed. We do not believe the Proponents have adequate data to accurately 

quantify the releases of contaminants to downstream receptors in Fish Creek and the Taseko 

River. However, we can compare the Proponents’ predicted “worst case” metals concentrations 

to known effects from our toxicity testing, and we can show the small margin of safety in those 

estimates. We conclude that even a small underprediction in the Proponents’ modeling would 

lead to metals concentrations that are associated with lethality to salmonid fish. To keep the 

presentation simple and short, Dr. Morris will likely focus his presentation on the effects of 

dissolved cadmium and copper on salmonids, although other metals and other mechanisms of 

adverse impact will be discussed briefly. 

4.1 Background Information 

Dr. Morris will present basic concepts in aquatic toxicology, including acute toxicity, chronic 

toxicity, and different types of adverse effects of metals. He will also briefly discuss the many 

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ways in which metals can adversely affect aquatic biota, including sediment and food chain 

effects. He will also discuss some of the many factors that can effect metals toxicity, and how 

those factors suggest that the impacts of metals could easily be far greater than predicted. 

Background information on basic metals toxicology will draw on information from Meyer et al. 

(2007) in addition to other sources cited below. 

4.2 Cadmium Toxicity 

Dr. Morris will discuss the mechanisms of cadmium toxicity and present data showing 

concentrations of dissolved cadmium in surface water at which deleterious effects occur. He will 

show concentrations at which lethality occurs, and lower concentrations at which sub-lethal 

effects such as reduced growth and behavioral avoidance occur. 

Dr. Morris will show that the predicted “worst case scenario” concentrations of cadmium in Fish 

Creek and the Taseko River exceed thresholds for sub-acute effects on salmonids and exceed the 

Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) acute threshold for cadmium 

(CCME, 1999). If the Proponents’ worst case scenario underestimates cadmium concentrations, 

cadmium would likely be acutely lethal in Fish Creek, would at least exceed concentrations that 

reduce growth and cause behavioral avoidance in the Taseko River, and could exceed acutely 

lethal concentrations in the Taseko River. 

Dr. Morris’ analysis of cadmium toxicity will draw on several sources of data, including 

McNicol and Scherer (1991), Stratus Consulting (1999), Hansen et al. (2002a, 2002b), Sloman 

et al. (2003), and Riddell et al. (2005). 

4.3 Copper Toxicity 

Dr. Morris will discuss the mechanisms of copper toxicity and present data showing 

concentrations of dissolved copper in surface water at which deleterious effects occur to 

salmonids. He will show concentrations at which lethality occurs, and lower concentrations at 

which sub-lethal effects such as reduced growth and behavioral avoidance occur. 

Dr. Morris will show that the predicted “worst case scenario” concentrations of copper in Fish 

Creek exceed thresholds for sub-acute effects on salmonids and exceed the BC Ministry of 

Environment water quality guidelines acute threshold (BC MOE, 2006). Predicted copper 

concentrations in the Taseko River would exceed thresholds for sub-acute effects on rainbow 

trout. If the Proponents’ worst case scenario underestimates copper concentrations, copper would 

be acutely lethal in Fish Creek, would at least exceed concentrations that reduce growth and 

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cause behavioral avoidance in the Taseko River, and could exceed acutely lethal concentrations 

in the Taseko River. 

Dr. Morris’ analysis of copper toxicity will draw primarily on Hansen et al. (1999, 2002c, 

2002d) and Meyer et al. (2007). 

4.4 Implications for Salmonid Fisheries 

Given the uncertainties and problems in the contaminant source and transport models, we believe 

that releases of cadmium and copper to the Taseko River at concentrations several times greater 

than what the Proponents have estimated is not only plausible but likely. In addition, Dr. Morris 

will note that the metal concentrations used to predict toxicity in Fish Creek and the Taseko 

River were the Proponents’ “worst case scenario” concentrations from March to May, which 

may correspond to the time of migration, spawning, egg hatching, and swim-up for many 

salmonid species in this system. Therefore, sub-lethal metal concentrations could disrupt adult 

migration and spawning by affecting olfactory sensory organs and disrupting the fish’s ability to 

find spawning grounds and establish social hierarchies. Additionally, the highest metal 

concentrations may occur at the time of year when certain salmonid species are hatching or 

young are first emerging from gravel beds (swim-up), which is the most sensitive life stage of 

salmonids. Finally, sub-lethal metal concentrations could impact the overall fitness of the 

salmonid fishery by reducing growth rates in juvenile fish. 

The combined effect of lethal and sub-lethal concentrations of metals such as cadmium and 

copper, in addition to possible additive and (or) synergistic effects of mixtures of these and other 

toxic metals in Fish Creek and the Taseko River could have deleterious effects on a salmonid 

fishery that currently supports viable populations of many species including rainbow, steelhead 

and bull trout, and Chinook and sockeye salmon. 

5. Qualifications of the Authors 

Below we present the qualifications of the authors of this memorandum. In addition, we include 

the qualifications of Dr. Lipton, who assisted Dr. Morris in the evaluation of metals toxicity data. 

If possible, Dr. Lipton may participate via teleconference in the technical sessions. 

Ann Maest, PhD, is an aqueous geochemist with expertise in the fate and transport of natural 

and anthropogenic contaminants in groundwater, surface water, and sediment. She has over 

20 years of research and professional experience as a geochemist and has worked on natural 

systems as well as on systems that have been impacted by industrial activities, especially 

hardrock mining and petroleum exploration. Dr. Maest’s research has included studies of metal- 

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organic interactions, metal and metalloid speciation, water-rock interactions, and redox 

geochemistry in surface water and groundwater. The results of her research have been published 

as numerous articles in peer-reviewed journals including Applied Geochemistry, Canadian 

Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Chemical Geology, Applied and Environmental 

Microbiology, and Environmental Science and Technology. She received the Adrian Smith 

Lecturer in Applied Geochemistry from the University of Waterloo in 1999. Dr. Maest has 

served on a number of national and international committees, including several National 

Academy of Sciences committees related to mining and minerals research issues and 

international committees on mining and sustainable development. She was recently elected to a 

second three-year term on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Earth Resources. 

Dr. Maest holds a PhD in geochemistry and water resources from Princeton University and an 

undergraduate degree in geology from Boston University. 

Cameron Wobus, PhD, is a geomorphologist and surface and groundwater hydrologist. His 

areas of specialty include surface water and groundwater hydrology, sediment transport, and 

numerical modeling. Dr. Wobus has developed and implemented watershed-scale hydrologic 

monitoring and models, developed numerical models of sediment transport and river incision, 

and evaluated contaminant fate and transport pathways in surface and groundwaters. His 

publications have appeared in journals including Nature, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 

Geology, and the Journal of Geophysical Research. Dr. Wobus holds a PhD in earth sciences 

from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an MS in earth sciences (hydrogeology) from 

Dartmouth College, and an AB in economics and geology from Bowdoin College. 

Constance Travers, MS, is a hydrogeologist with 23 years of experience in hydrogeology, water 

resources, and environmental chemistry. She has extensive experience in the development, 

testing, and application of numerical models used in predicting the mobility of water and 

inorganic and organic contaminants in the subsurface, as well as in surface water. Ms. Travers 

has developed vadose zone, surface water, and groundwater models ranging in complexity from 

conceptual hydrologic models to three-dimensional numerical models of regional flow systems. 

Her expertise in groundwater flow, contaminant chemistry, and transport and fate processes has 

been used extensively by litigation teams involved in environmental lawsuits. Ms. Travers has 

worked on subsurface fate and transport issues to support site characterization, remedial 

investigations, and feasibility studies. She has directed multidisciplinary teams to assess the 

water quality impacts of hard-rock mining operations, including assessment of the water quality 

and ecological risks associated with the lakes that form in dewatered open pits, the effects of 

tailings impoundments and waste rock storage facilities on receiving waters, and the impact of 

mine dewatering on groundwater and surface water resources. She is the coauthor of a report 

with Dr. Maest on methods for predicting water quality impacts of hard rock mining, and 

Ms. Travers and Dr. Maest recently taught a short-course on the same topic to regulators in the 

State of California. She has managed hydrologic field investigations including sampling of 

surface water, sediments, soils, and groundwater; monitoring well installation; aquifer testing, 

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cone-penetrometer; and Geoprobe work. Ms. Travers holds an MS in applied hydrogeology and 

a BS in geology from Stanford University. 

James Holmes, MS, is a hydrologist with expertise in contaminant fate and transport, acid mine 

drainage, and water quality modeling. Over the past 18 years, he has worked at numerous hard 

rock mining sites an employee of Stratus Consulting, Stratus Consulting’s predecessor company, 

and as an employee of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. His research has included hydrograph 

separation in stormflow, geochemical mixing models, and sources of acid mine drainage. He has 

extensive field experience designing studies of flow measurement, contaminant loading and 

water quality at mine sites. He has evaluated environmental impacts at several large mining 

operations, including the Clark Fork Complex in Montana, the Bunker Hill/Coeur d’Alene 

Complex in Idaho, the Upper Blackbird Mining District in Montana, the Ray Mine in Arizona, 

and the Tri-State Mining District in Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Mr. Holmes holds an MS 

in earth sciences from Dartmouth College and a BA in environmental biology from Middlebury 

College. 

Jeff Morris, PhD, is an aquatic toxicologist with experience in aquatic biology, 

biogeochemistry, contaminant fate and transport, environmental remediation, and alternative 

energy generation. As an aquatic toxicologist, Dr. Morris has conducted several laboratory and 

field investigations on the fate and effects of metals on aquatic biota, including fish, 

invertebrates, and biofilm. Dr. Morris has developed unique technologies to enhance 

bioremediation of groundwater and sediments impacted by acid mine drainage. His research over 

the last 10 years has focused on acute and chronic investigations of the effects of metals, 

ammonia, and bacterial infections on invertebrate and fish species including the threatened bull 

trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and the endangered Lost River sucker (Deltistes luxatus). 

Additionally, Dr. Morris has conducted detailed investigations into the biogeochemical 

mechanisms driving diel metal cycling in mining-impacted streams and applied this knowledge 

to the design of a biological metal-removal system for treating drinking water during long-term 

missions in space for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). He has 

published peer-reviewed papers in numerous scientific journals including Aquatic Toxicology; 

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry; Archives of Environmental Contamination and 

Toxicology; Water, Air, and Soil Pollution; Biogeochemistry; Hydrobiologia; Mine Water and 

the Environment; Journal of Environmental Science and Health; and Chemical Engineering 

Journal. Dr. Morris holds a PhD in zoology and physiology and a BS in wildlife and fisheries 

biology and management from the University of Wyoming. 

Josh Lipton, PhD, is an environmental toxicologist with expertise in aquatic and terrestrial 

toxicology, ecological assessments and ecological risk assessment, applied ecology and 

population biology, and uncertainty analysis. Dr. Lipton’s toxicological research activities 

include investigations into the bioavailability of metals to fish and plants, sublethal and 

behavioral responses of organisms to hazardous substances, effects of acclimation and adaptation 

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on sensitivity to metals, and community/ecological responses to chronic contamination. 

Dr. Lipton is an expert in the environmental toxicology of salmonids, including both salmon and 

trout. He directs field studies on fish and wildlife populations, field studies of aquatic and 

terrestrial habitat and community composition, laboratory toxicity studies, and environmental 

sampling and monitoring programs. Dr. Lipton has served as Lead Scientist for numerous 

environmental assessments, ecological modeling studies, and evaluations related to water quality 

criteria and standards. He is the author or coauthor of over 45 peer-reviewed scientific 

publications and over 150 presentations at national and international scientific meetings and 

symposia, and has been an invited speaker and instructor to a number of government and 

university audiences. In addition, he holds the position of Research (Full) Professor in the 

Department of Geochemistry at the Colorado School of Mines and has served as an elected 

member of the editorial boards of the scientific journals Environmental Toxicology and 

Chemistry and Science of the Total Environment. Dr. Lipton holds PhD and MS degrees in 

natural resources from Cornell University, and a BA in environmental biology from Middlebury 

College. 

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Baia Mare Task Force. 2000. Report of the International Task Force for Assessing the Baia Mare 

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Baker, F., D. Cook, J. Deem, H. Letient, and H. Walsh. 1996. Matachewan Mines Tailings Dam: 

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Davies, M.P. 2002. Tailings impoundment failures: Are geotechnical engineers listening? 

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Hansen, J.A., P.G. Welsh, and J. Lipton. 2002d. Relative sensitivity of bull trout (Salvelinus 

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Hansen, J.A., J. Lipton, P.G. Welsh, and A.D. Dailey. 2002a. The relative sensitivity of bull trout 

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Holmes, J. and J. Lipton. 2007. Preliminary Evaluation of Injuries and Damages: Upper 

Blackfoot Mining Complex, Lewis and Clark County, Montana. Prepared by Stratus Consulting 

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Different Sources. Prepared by Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO for U.S. Department of Justice, 

Seattle, WA. Draft. 

Maest, A.S., J.R. Kuipers, C.L. Travers, and D.A. Atkins. 2005. Predicting Water Quality at 

Hardrock Mines: Methods and Models, Uncertainties, and State-of-the-Art. Kuipers & 

Associates, Butte, MT. 

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McNicol, R.E. and E. Scherer. 1991. Behavioral responses of lake whitefish (Coregonus 

clupeaformis) to cadmium during preference-avoidance testing. Environmental Toxicology and 

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Meyer, J.S., S.J. Clearwater, T.A. Doser, M.J. Rogaczewski, and J.A. Hansen. 2007. Effects of 

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Freshwater Organisms. SETAC Press, Pensacola, FL. pp. 41-96. 

Mullenmeister, E. 2009. Jamestown Mine Harvard Pit Water Balance Model. Prepared by Shaw 

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Washington Department of Ecology. 2009c. Crown Resources Corporation Notice of Violation 

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