Earnings Surprises, Growth Expectations, and Stock Returns:

Table 1
Mean Quarterly Abnormal Stock Returns Over the Subsequent Twenty Quarters
for Portfolios of Stocks formed on Growth and the Sign (Positive, Negative, or Zero)
of the Subsequent Quarterly Earnings Surprise.
Growth is measured using the MB ratio (low MB = low growth, high MB = high growth).
Stock returns are cumulated over the period beginning two days following the
announcement of earnings for the previous quarter and ending on the day following the
announcement of earnings for the current quarter (Fullret). Each cell reports the mean
abnormal portfolio stock return, the number of observations in the portfolio, and the
percentage of that row’s observations falling into cell. Abnormal returns are computed
using a decile-based size adjustment.
Growth
Portfolio
1
(Low
Growth)
Earnings Surprise Portfolio
Negative Zero Positive All
-3.57%
138,752
(50.0%)
2 -3.91%
136,405
(49.0%)
3 -4.89%
134,089
(48.3%)
4 -5.82%
130,977
(47.3%)
5
(High
Growth)
All Growth
Portfolios
-7.32%
122,099
(44.1%)
-5.04%
662,322
(47.8%)
1.13%
17,143
(6.2%)
2.01%
23,803
(8.6%)
1.71%
31,214
(11.3%)
1.54%
42,049
(15.2%)
1.65%
52,789
(19.1%)
1.63%
166,998
(12.0%)
5.44%
121,439
(43.8%)
4.93%
117,842
(42.4%)
5.29%
112,127
(40.4%)
5.65%
104,034
(37.5%)
6.32%
102,051
(36.8%)
5.50%
557,493
(40.2%)
0.66%
277,334
(100%)
0.35%
278,050
(100%)
-0.03%
277,430
(100%)
-0.40%
277,060
(100%)
-0.58%
276,939
(100%)
0.00%
1,386,813
(100%)
43