Lead and Line - naval officers' association of vancouver island
Lead and Line - naval officers' association of vancouver island
Lead and Line - naval officers' association of vancouver island
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____________________________________________________________________________________________________________<strong>Lead</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Line</strong><br />
diesel-electric attack submarines, <strong>and</strong> has been launching two indigenously-built Song-class diesel-electric attack<br />
submarines per year for the past decade. It has also developed <strong>and</strong> launched the high tech Yuan-class dieselelectric<br />
attack boat, which may have the silent air-independent propulsion system. Analysts believe that China will<br />
in the coming years also launch the Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine, further strengthening its<br />
already robust submarine fleet. It has surely not escaped China‘s notice that US anti submarine warfare capability<br />
has atrophied significantly since the end <strong>of</strong> the Cold War.<br />
But China‘s maritime capabilities are set to extend beyond access denial, into power projection. The systems that<br />
have gained most international attention are China‘s planned aircraft carriers <strong>and</strong> its new fifth-generation fighter<br />
bomber. Anytime now, the PLA Navy will commence sea trials for its first carrier, the ex-Ukrainian Varyag, which<br />
has been renamed Shi Lang. The former Soviet ship is larger than European carriers, but one-third smaller than US<br />
Nimitz class carriers. Moreover, China has publicly confirmed it has a second, larger, conventionally powered<br />
carrier under domestic construction that will likely be launched in 2015. China has planned or is constructing a<br />
third conventionally-powered carrier <strong>and</strong> two nuclear-powered carriers are on the drawing board, with a planned<br />
completion date <strong>of</strong> 2020.<br />
Equally important as the warships, are the aircraft China plans to deploy on its flat tops. The main fighterbomber<br />
in the PLA Navy carrier air wing will be the J-15 Flying Shark, which under current configuration is<br />
comparable in size <strong>and</strong> capability to the US Navy‘s retired F-14 Tomcat. The jet will have limited range given its<br />
weight taking <strong>of</strong>f from the ski deck-configured Shi Lang, however, it‘s believed that advances in Chinese<br />
aeronautics <strong>and</strong> avionics, as well as a catapult launch system on forthcoming carriers, could put the J-15 in the<br />
same performance class as the USN F-18 Super Hornet in the future. China may also have developed a carrierbased<br />
airborne warning <strong>and</strong> control systems (AWACS) aircraft, which would be a major development. An<br />
Internet-sourced photograph that appeared in mid-May, meanwhile, shows a corner <strong>of</strong> a model <strong>of</strong> what is clearly a<br />
small AWACS aircraft inspired by the E-2 Hawkeye <strong>and</strong> the unrealized Soviet Yak-44 designs.<br />
To put China‘s carrier programme in perspective, with the retirement <strong>of</strong> the USS Enterprise this summer, the<br />
United States will have only ten carriers to meet worldwide commitments; China will likely have five carriers<br />
devoted to the Asia-Pacific region alone.<br />
China‘s build-up is being noted even in the popular<br />
Western media, which has given significant coverage<br />
to China‘s prototype fifth generation twin-engine<br />
stealth fighter-bomber, the J-20 Black Silk. The jet is<br />
larger than the USAF F-22 Raptor <strong>and</strong> could prove to<br />
be comparable in capability (although some US<br />
observers claim it is more similar to the slightly less<br />
sophisticated US <strong>and</strong> allied F-35 Joint Strike Fighter,<br />
which will be the frontline US carrier fighter).<br />
The J-20 prototype took <strong>of</strong>f on its ‗maiden‘ test flight<br />
in January from an airfield in the southwestern city <strong>of</strong><br />
Chengdu, flying for about 15 minutes on the same day<br />
then-US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was in<br />
Beijing meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao, sending a strong political message <strong>and</strong> earning the jet a spot on<br />
evening news programmes worldwide.<br />
China is believed to have received a major assist in developing the J-20 by obtaining materials from a downed<br />
US F-117 Night Hawk from Serbia, as well as from the believed cyber theft <strong>of</strong> JSF plans from US defence<br />
contractors. (With this in mind, US planners should also assume that Chinese engineers have had access to the<br />
rotor tail <strong>of</strong> the stealth helicopter that was ditched in the Osama bin Laden raid in Pakistan).<br />
These rapid <strong>and</strong> high-level technical achievements have apparently surprised many Western observers, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
consensus is that the West has consistently underestimated the strength <strong>of</strong> China‘s military industrial capability <strong>and</strong><br />
its determination to exp<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> modernize its armed forces, especially the PLA Navy. But it should now be more<br />
than clear that the world is facing a significant challenge to a maritime system that has been dominated for the past<br />
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