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The Evolution of Small Change: Beliefs, Experiments, and ...

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Contents<br />

Part I: <strong>The</strong> problem <strong>and</strong> its setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1<br />

1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3<br />

<strong>The</strong> Enduring Problem <strong>of</strong> <strong>Small</strong> <strong>Change</strong> . . . . . . . . 4<br />

<strong>The</strong> model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7<br />

<strong>The</strong> history . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9<br />

Structure <strong>of</strong> subsequent chapters . . . . . . . . . . . . 11<br />

2. A theory sketched . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13<br />

Valuation by weight or tale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13<br />

Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13<br />

Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14<br />

Dem<strong>and</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16<br />

Interactions <strong>of</strong> supply <strong>and</strong> dem<strong>and</strong> . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18<br />

Economics <strong>of</strong> interval alignments . . . . . . . . . . . . 19<br />

Perverse dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20<br />

Opportunity cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20<br />

An open market operation from Castile . . . . . . . . . . 21<br />

An open market operation for the st<strong>and</strong>ard formula<br />

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22<br />

Transparency <strong>of</strong> opportunity cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23<br />

Trusting the government with bi = 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . 23<br />

A history sketched . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23<br />

Part II: Historical Evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25<br />

v

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