Calculation of Mixture Statistics Using Popstats - Promega

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Under the Prosecution’s hypothesis, The components of the mixture are explained with a probability of 1 Probability of the suspect’s contribution x A 3 A 3 A 1 A 3 A 2 A 3 p 3 2 + 2p1 p 3 +2p 2 p 3 Probability of the unknown’s contribution
Now, the Defense scenario becomes interesting… Since we don’t know if the “unknown” is homozygous or heterozygous…we must cover all bases! Let’s see how this pans out…
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Popstats Unplugged 14 th Internatio
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What Constitutes a DNA Mixture? Pr
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What Constitutes a DNA Mixture? Ci
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Common Mixture Interpretations Alle
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But, before we begin… Calculation
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Two common questions are generally
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Exclusion Probability This is a mea
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For example: Exclusion Probability
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Exclusion Probability The probabili
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Exclusion Probability In presence o
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Exclusion Probability What does thi
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We have the following data: Mixture
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Given that both victim and suspect
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What if we couldn’t assume H-W? P
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How does PopStats handle this calcu
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Here is the input data But what is
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It is the compliment of Inclusion P
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PE = 1 - 8.033 X 10 -7 = 0.99999919
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What if we have to consider some al
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Mixtures and Likelihood Ratios Like
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Let’s use the same example used i
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Three Alleles Victim is heterozygot
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The prosecution may postulate that
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The defense might argue that the fo
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The defense might argue that the fo
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Since the victim has the profile (8
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Now here is where the “RATIO” i
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Defense hypothesis 2 is a little mo
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How do we get these probabilities?
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Of course…we could incorporate θ
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What next… The total probability
Page 64 and 65: HOW TO EXPRESS THE NUMBERS FROM LIK
Page 66 and 67: Conservative Basic True!
Page 68 and 69: Or The probability (chance) that th
Page 70 and 71: Assumptions In Likelihood Computati
Page 72 and 73: Assumptions In Likelihood Computati
Page 74 and 75: So, lets go back to our previous da
Page 76 and 77: And our "K1" and "K2" genotypes:
Page 78 and 79: Our entry data from before:
Page 80 and 81: This side will autofill when changi
Page 82 and 83: C2 reflects the H a H a = The resul
Page 84 and 85: Notes: • The layout screen is pos
Page 86 and 87: Ok… so what do we get when we pus
Page 88 and 89: Big Number Names: • 1,000,000 mil
Page 90 and 91: You could also look at what the all
Page 92 and 93: C2 reflects the H a H a = The resul
Page 94 and 95: You can drag and drop the entire fi
Page 96 and 97: Continue, holding the SHIFT button
Page 98 and 99: Big Number Names: • 1,000,000 mil
Page 100 and 101: Lets look at a different scenario O
Page 102 and 103: Two alleles match the suspect - A 1
Page 104 and 105: The prosecution may postulate that
Page 106 and 107: The defense might argue that the fo
Page 108 and 109: The resulting likelihood ratio is:
Page 110 and 111: So, with regard to Defense Hypothes
Page 112 and 113: Same question as before but… Thre
Page 116 and 117: Unk 1 Unk 2 A1A2 A1A2 A1A2 A1A3 A1A
Page 118 and 119: The Likelihood Ratio becomes: p 3 2
Page 120 and 121: p 1 = 0.1, p 2 = 0.2, and p 3 = 0.3
Page 122 and 123: So, with regard to the Defense Hypo
Page 124 and 125: Of course we can do this in PopStat
Page 126 and 127: Of course we can do this in PopStat
Page 128 and 129: Now…Let's have some real fun! Sce
Page 130 and 131: Our Knowns: Let's see how this scen
Page 132 and 133: H a1 = The results are explained by
Page 134 and 135: Our Results:
Page 136 and 137: The "profile" in C1 represents all
Page 138 and 139: Our Results:
Page 140 and 141: Considerations Unlike interpretatio
Page 142: Considerations Most critical step o
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Calculation of Mixture Statistics Using Popstats - Promega

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