Calculation of Mixture Statistics Using Popstats - Promega

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Exclusion Probability Exclusion probability addresses the question: How often a random person would have been excluded as a contributor in the observed DNA mixture?
Exclusion Probability This is a measure of how powerful the DNA testing panel is in excluding noncontributory individuals from the analysis The statistic is based on the allelic composition of the mixture…not the profiles of potential contributors
Page 1 and 2: Popstats Unplugged 14 th Internatio
Page 3 and 4: What Constitutes a DNA Mixture? Pr
Page 5 and 6: What Constitutes a DNA Mixture? Ci
Page 7 and 8: Common Mixture Interpretations Alle
Page 9 and 10: But, before we begin… Calculation
Page 11: Two common questions are generally
Page 15 and 16: For example: Exclusion Probability
Page 17 and 18: Exclusion Probability The probabili
Page 19 and 20: Exclusion Probability In presence o
Page 21 and 22: Exclusion Probability What does thi
Page 23 and 24: We have the following data: Mixture
Page 25 and 26: Given that both victim and suspect
Page 27 and 28: What if we couldn’t assume H-W? P
Page 29 and 30: How does PopStats handle this calcu
Page 31 and 32: Here is the input data But what is
Page 33 and 34: It is the compliment of Inclusion P
Page 35 and 36: PE = 1 - 8.033 X 10 -7 = 0.99999919
Page 37: What if we have to consider some al
Page 40 and 41: Mixtures and Likelihood Ratios Like
Page 42 and 43: Let’s use the same example used i
Page 44 and 45: Three Alleles Victim is heterozygot
Page 46 and 47: The prosecution may postulate that
Page 48 and 49: The defense might argue that the fo
Page 50 and 51: The defense might argue that the fo
Page 52 and 53: Since the victim has the profile (8
Page 54 and 55: Now here is where the “RATIO” i
Page 56 and 57: Defense hypothesis 2 is a little mo
Page 58 and 59: How do we get these probabilities?
Page 60 and 61: Of course…we could incorporate θ
Page 62 and 63:
What next… The total probability
Page 64 and 65:
HOW TO EXPRESS THE NUMBERS FROM LIK
Page 66 and 67:
Conservative Basic True!
Page 68 and 69:
Or The probability (chance) that th
Page 70 and 71:
Assumptions In Likelihood Computati
Page 72 and 73:
Assumptions In Likelihood Computati
Page 74 and 75:
So, lets go back to our previous da
Page 76 and 77:
And our "K1" and "K2" genotypes:
Page 78 and 79:
Our entry data from before:
Page 80 and 81:
This side will autofill when changi
Page 82 and 83:
C2 reflects the H a H a = The resul
Page 84 and 85:
Notes: • The layout screen is pos
Page 86 and 87:
Ok… so what do we get when we pus
Page 88 and 89:
Big Number Names: • 1,000,000 mil
Page 90 and 91:
You could also look at what the all
Page 92 and 93:
C2 reflects the H a H a = The resul
Page 94 and 95:
You can drag and drop the entire fi
Page 96 and 97:
Continue, holding the SHIFT button
Page 98 and 99:
Big Number Names: • 1,000,000 mil
Page 100 and 101:
Lets look at a different scenario O
Page 102 and 103:
Two alleles match the suspect - A 1
Page 104 and 105:
The prosecution may postulate that
Page 106 and 107:
The defense might argue that the fo
Page 108 and 109:
The resulting likelihood ratio is:
Page 110 and 111:
So, with regard to Defense Hypothes
Page 112 and 113:
Same question as before but… Thre
Page 114 and 115:
Under the Prosecution’s hypothesi
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Unk 1 Unk 2 A1A2 A1A2 A1A2 A1A3 A1A
Page 118 and 119:
The Likelihood Ratio becomes: p 3 2
Page 120 and 121:
p 1 = 0.1, p 2 = 0.2, and p 3 = 0.3
Page 122 and 123:
So, with regard to the Defense Hypo
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Of course we can do this in PopStat
Page 126 and 127:
Of course we can do this in PopStat
Page 128 and 129:
Now…Let's have some real fun! Sce
Page 130 and 131:
Our Knowns: Let's see how this scen
Page 132 and 133:
H a1 = The results are explained by
Page 134 and 135:
Our Results:
Page 136 and 137:
The "profile" in C1 represents all
Page 138 and 139:
Our Results:
Page 140 and 141:
Considerations Unlike interpretatio
Page 142:
Considerations Most critical step o
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Calculation of Mixture Statistics Using Popstats - Promega

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