Electric Cars We don’t just talk the talk... ...we drive the drive. Join us. A t <strong>Hawaii</strong>an Electric, we are passionate about promoting electric vehicles as we move to <strong>Hawaii</strong>’s clean energy future. Carlos Perez Manager, Energy Solutions Department <strong>Hawaii</strong>an Electric Company • Our discount charging rates reward our customers who charge their EVs off-peak. Learn more at goev.heco.com; or e-mail to GoEV@heco.com; or call 808-543-GoEV (4638) on Oahu, 808-871-2390 on Maui and 808-969-0358 on <strong>Hawaii</strong> Island. • Our EV business alliances include AeroVironment; Aloha Petroleum; Better Place; Mitsubishi Motors; Nissan; Volta and more. • Our EV advocacy and research alliances include: Clean Energy Initiative transportation group, Edison Electric Institute; Electric Power Research Institute; Electric Vehicle <strong>Association</strong>; Energy Office, Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism; <strong>Hawaii</strong> Energy Policy Forum transportation working group; Plug-in America; Sierra Club and (LAST BUT NOT LEAST) <strong>Hawaii</strong> <strong>Automobile</strong> <strong>Dealers</strong> <strong>Association</strong>. • Our fleet of pure electric, plug-in hybrid electric, and hybrid sedans and hybrid bucket trucks is growing.
Covering Data thru June 2012 Volume 11, Number 3 Covering Data thru June 2012 Volume 11, Number 3 <strong>Hawaii</strong> Auto Outlook <strong>Hawaii</strong> Sponsored by: <strong>Hawaii</strong> Auto <strong>Automobile</strong> <strong>Dealers</strong> Outlook <strong>Association</strong> Sponsored FORECAST by: <strong>Hawaii</strong> <strong>Automobile</strong> <strong>Dealers</strong> <strong>Association</strong> Market Posts Impressive 19.4% Increase in First Half of 2012 FORECAST 16.2% increase predicted for entire year Market Posts Impressive 19.4% Increase in First Half of 2012 The <strong>Hawaii</strong> new vehicle market would appear to be well on 16.2% its way to increase emerging from predicted the sales meltdown for entire that took year place The between <strong>Hawaii</strong> 2008 new and vehicle 2010. market After increasing would appear 9% from to 2010 be well to 2011, on its way to 5 KEY MARKET TRENDS emerging the market from improved the sales 21.5% meltdown and 17.6% that in took the place First and between Second 2008 and 1. 2010. Quarters After of increasing this year versus 9% from year-earlier. 2010 to For 2011, all of the 2012, market Auto improved 21.5% Outlook and is predicting 17.6% in the that First new and retail Second light vehicle Quarters registrations of this year versus year-earlier. will increase For 16.2% all of from 2012, 2011. Auto Outlook is predicting that new retail light vehicle registrations will increase 16.2% from 2011. What lies ahead for 2013? Another increase is likely, but at this 2. What point, lies it looks ahead like for the 2013? rate Another of increase increase is likely is likely, to ease. but Auto at this point, it Outlook looks like is currently the rate projecting of increase a 9% is likely improvement to ease. for Auto 2013, Outlook is currently slightly below projecting the 16.2% a 9% increase improvement expected for for 2013, this year. slightly below the 16.2% increase expected for this year. Why do we think the pace of the recovery will ease somewhat 3. <strong>Hawaii</strong> new retail light 5 Key vehicle Market registrations increased Trends 19.4% in the first half of 2012 versus a year earlier, higher than the 9.9% improvement in the Nation. 1. <strong>Hawaii</strong> new retail light vehicle registrations increased 19.4% in the first half of 2012 versus a year earlier, higher than the 9.9% improvement in the Nation. Auto Outlook projects that the state new vehicle market will improve 16.2% for all of this year, with an increase likely in 2013 as well. The 2. Auto Outlook projects that the state new vehicle market will uptick next year would mark the fourth consecutive annual increase. improve 16.2% for all of this year, with an increase likely in 2013 as well. The uptick next year would mark the fourth Higher fuel consecutive prices earlier annual this increase. year and many key new vehicle Why next do year? we Here think are the the pace three of primary the recovery reasons. will First, ease economic somewhat next year? growth Here is expected are the to three remain primary sluggish, reasons. as likely First, fiscal economic tightening growth is expected by the Federal to remain government sluggish, will as limit likely growth, fiscal and tightening the European by the Federal government financial crisis will is limit likely growth, to put and a damper the European on the global financial economy. crisis is likely to Second, put a the damper unemployment on the global rate is economy. expected Second, to remain the relatively unemployment 4. rate high, is with expected slim to gains remain in employment. relatively high, And with third, slim gains although in employment. households And third, have although made headway households in reducing have debt, made t<strong>here</strong> headway is still a in reducing lot of debt, work t<strong>here</strong> to do is in still curing a lot ailing of work balance to sheets, do in curing which are ailing still balance sheets, on the mend which following are still on the the financial mend crisis. following the financial crisis. introductions have given a boost to car sales in the state. New retail car registrations 3. Higher were fuel prices up 22.3% earlier in the this first year half and of many 2012 and key new car market vehicle share increased. introductions have given a boost to car sales in the state. New retail car registrations were up 22.3% in the first half of 2012 and car market share increased. Among the top 20 selling brands, Jeep, Volkswagen, Acura, Dodge (including 4. Among Ram), and the top Chevrolet 20 selling have brands, had the Jeep, largest Volkswagen, increases so Acura, far this year. Dodge State registrations (including Ram), for each and of Chevrolet the five brands have had were the up largest more than 30%. increases so far this year. State registrations for each of the five brands were up more than 30%. At this point, point, it seems highly unlikely that that these these events events will will derail derail the 5. new the new vehicle vehicle market market recovery. Indeed, our our basic basic outlook has has remained intact remained since intact the recession since the recession hit in 2008 hit in and 2008 2009: and the 2009: market the will remain market on will its remain long term on its improvement long term improvement path, but the path, recovery but the will take longer recovery and will proceed take longer much and more proceed slowly much than the more 2009 slowly collapse, than which hit the hard 2009 and collapse, fast. which hit hard and fast. Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are relatively strong sellers in the state 5. Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are relatively strong sellers in market. Vehicle registrations for the three brands easily exceed the state market. Vehicle registrations for the three brands expected levels, which are calculated from National market share (see easily exceed expected levels, which are calculated from page 2 for full analysis). National market share (see page 2 for full analysis). 80,000 70,000 60,000 67,224 Market is predicted to improve 16.2% in 2012. 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 57,526 47,000 42,804 43,110 33,639 34,019 37,086 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Forecast Forecast The graph shows new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2006 thru 2011, and Auto Outlook’s projections for 2012 and 2013. New light vehicle registrations Annual Trend in <strong>Hawaii</strong> New Vehicle Market Market Summary TM YTD '11 YTD '12 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '11 to '12 YTD '12 TOTAL 18,510 22,110 19.4% Car 9,301 11,378 22.3% 51.5% Light Truck 9,209 10,732 16.5% 48.5% Detroit Three 3,399 4,365 28.4% 19.7% European 2,072 2,500 20.7% 11.3% Japanese 11,576 13,544 17.0% 61.3% Korean 1,463 1,701 16.3% 7.7% Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford and Chrysler. Historical data Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive. 27
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