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THE EXTREME FUTURE (Part 1) - UTM

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TITLE:<br />

<strong>THE</strong> <strong>EXTREME</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong><br />

‘<strong>THE</strong> TOP TRENDS THAT WILL RESHAPE <strong>THE</strong> WORLD IN <strong>THE</strong><br />

NEXT 20 YEARS’<br />

Author:<br />

James Canton,<br />

CEO and Chairman, Institute for Global Futures<br />

Reviewer:<br />

Professor Ir. Dr. Mohd. Azraai Kassim<br />

Deputy Vice Chancellor (Research & Innovation)<br />

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia<br />

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It talks about what is coming –<br />

trends, opportunities and threats to<br />

prosperity.<br />

It talks about innovations that will<br />

transform the global economy and<br />

strategies businesses must<br />

implement to compete.<br />

It is full of anecdotes, summary<br />

tables and headlines from the<br />

future.<br />

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1. To explain the Extreme Future.<br />

2. To help you better prepare for the Extreme Future.<br />

3. To enable you to adapt, shape opportunity, and avoid risks.<br />

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1. A future vision<br />

Clear vision of where you are<br />

going<br />

2. A sound strategy to get there<br />

3. Tools to<br />

persuade key<br />

people<br />

4. Effective execution<br />

Colleagues, teammates, family<br />

members, and so on – to commit<br />

to a shared vision and strategy<br />

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Climate<br />

Change<br />

Longevity<br />

Medicine<br />

Weird<br />

Science<br />

Fueling the<br />

Future<br />

Future of the<br />

individual<br />

TEN TRENDS<br />

OF <strong>THE</strong><br />

<strong>EXTREME</strong><br />

<strong>FUTURE</strong><br />

Globalization<br />

US-China<br />

Future<br />

Innovation<br />

Economy<br />

Next<br />

Workforce<br />

Securing the<br />

Future<br />

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Future<br />

Map<br />

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Solar<br />

Hydrogen<br />

BioFuels<br />

Wind<br />

Nano Tech<br />

Options<br />

Fueling<br />

the<br />

Future<br />

Issues<br />

End of Oil<br />

Nuclear<br />

Geopolitics<br />

Security<br />

Terrorism<br />

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FIVE THINGS EVERYONE NEEDS<br />

TO KNOW ABOUT ENERGY<br />

The era of cheap oil is over.<br />

Alternative energy, though<br />

promising, is not ready to<br />

produce adequate supply.<br />

We need to invest quickly in<br />

new energy sources.<br />

We need to learn to conserve<br />

energy.<br />

Energy is a national security<br />

issue.<br />

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2030 ENERGY FORECAST<br />

The global demand for energy will increase by 70<br />

percent.<br />

There will be a 50 percent increase in energy demand<br />

from developing nations, especially China and India.<br />

Energy access is an essential enabler of higher standards<br />

of living in the developing world.<br />

Increased energy access in the developed world will be<br />

necessary to sustain productivity and growth.<br />

Energy has become the leading global and national<br />

security issue.<br />

China’s energy needs will be double those of the U.S.<br />

and the EU.<br />

Renewable energy will account for more than 35<br />

percent of total global energy needs to offset reduced<br />

oil reserves.<br />

Innovations like fusion, nanotechnology, and solar will<br />

replace oil.<br />

Distributed small scale, person-to-person electricity<br />

generation will be sustainable.<br />

Breakthroughs in hydrogen and renewable energy will<br />

provide new energy supplies.<br />

A Tibetan monk cooks lunch using a simple solar<br />

energy stove at Longwu Monastery in Tongren, Qinghai<br />

province.<br />

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TOP <strong>FUTURE</strong> BENEFITS OF HYDROGEN<br />

Reliable Source Increased access to a reliable source of<br />

energy makes hydrogen worth working toward.<br />

Flexible Hydrogen can fuel personal and public<br />

transportation and numerous energy-dependent devices,<br />

engines and needs<br />

Self-Reliance Not having to count on foreign monopolies<br />

and the geopolitics of oil is worth the investment.<br />

Environmentally Friendly Hydrogen produces water as<br />

exhaust, though oil is still necessary to produce hydrogen<br />

fuel.<br />

Hydrogen Works Today We know hydrogen can provide<br />

power today – it is just too costly and is not yet ready for<br />

mass transportation use.<br />

Unlimited Access Hydrogen could be an unlimited power<br />

source.<br />

Ultimately Inexpensive and Cost-Effective If the Iraq war<br />

costs the U.S. between $500 billion and $1 trillion, and we<br />

were to invest half of that in hydrogen, we would see<br />

dramatic breakthroughs in energy-fast.<br />

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Energy will shape every aspect of<br />

the Extreme Future, from security<br />

to transportation to health care<br />

and growth.<br />

We must prepare now by investing<br />

in alternative energy sources, some<br />

through innovation like nano, and<br />

others through hydrogen.<br />

The future of nations will rise and<br />

fall, proper or decline, based on<br />

their access to energy resources.<br />

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Capital<br />

Neuro<br />

Open Markets<br />

Democracy<br />

Nano<br />

Innovation<br />

Economy Map<br />

IT<br />

Jobs<br />

Education<br />

Bio<br />

Research<br />

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TEN <strong>EXTREME</strong> INNOVATIONS THAT WILL<br />

ROCK YOUR WORLD IN 2025<br />

Teleportation of objects around the<br />

planet.<br />

Specialized DNA for sale online.<br />

Space tourism to the moon and Mars.<br />

Manipulating matter to make smart<br />

products.<br />

Four billion people doing Internet<br />

commerce.<br />

Hydrogen engines for transportation.<br />

Cybernetic health enhancement of<br />

humans.<br />

Downloading memories and drugs.<br />

Domestic robots.<br />

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<strong>THE</strong> FORMULA OF <strong>THE</strong><br />

INNOVATION ECONOMY<br />

I + C + D = P2<br />

(Innovation + Capitalism + Democracy = Prosperity and Peace)<br />

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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN INDUSTRIES OF <strong>THE</strong><br />

INNOVATION ECONOMY:<br />

WHO WILL BENEFIT MOST<br />

1. Pharma/Health The extension of human life<br />

and health enhancement as a result of major<br />

advances in medical, pharmaceutical, and surgical<br />

knowledge and treatments.<br />

2. Energy The development of renewable, clean,<br />

abundant, and affordable fuels.<br />

3. Manufacturing The development of new<br />

processes that will enable the global, fast,<br />

inexpensive, and on-demand production and<br />

distribution of goods.<br />

4. Communications The creation of new ways to<br />

connect information, people, and financial<br />

transactions in real time. The software, games,<br />

programs, and content.<br />

5. Transportation The discovery of new methods<br />

to increase the ability of individuals and companies<br />

to be mobile, to ship, and to reach customers.<br />

New Straits Times, Wednesday, April 4, 2012<br />

The Star, Sunday, 22 April 2012<br />

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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN INDUSTRIES OF <strong>THE</strong><br />

INNOVATION ECONOMY:<br />

WHO WILL BENEFIT MOST<br />

6. Security The creation of new devices that will both spare lives<br />

and increase our ability to protect our society, our allies, and<br />

ourselves.<br />

7. Entertainment Media New delivery systems to share<br />

ideas, culture, and fun that will make the existing Internet and<br />

currently available electronic entertainment devices seem as<br />

quaint and outdated as windup toys.<br />

8. Education and Learning The creation of immediate,<br />

portable, transferable, on-demand knowledge sources on a<br />

scale equivalent to the Library of Congress.<br />

9. Knowledge Engineering The creation of information<br />

services that can morph into games, finance, software,<br />

programs, and systems to provide value to consumers and<br />

business for better customer service, entertainment, marketing,<br />

planning, and managing.<br />

10. Smart Materials New nano-bio-neuro materials that are<br />

smarter, safer, cleaner, and cheaper to make into any products,<br />

on-demand, for any industry.<br />

Utusan Malaysia, Isnin, 7 November 2011<br />

The Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, April 18, 2012<br />

The Star, Friday, 25 November 2011<br />

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Renewable<br />

Energy<br />

Longevity<br />

Medicine<br />

Space<br />

Personal<br />

Security<br />

TOP<br />

INNOVATION<br />

MARKETS BY<br />

2025<br />

Clean Tech<br />

Nano<br />

Manufacturing<br />

Human<br />

Enhancement<br />

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TOP NANOTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S : 2020<br />

Hydrogen-nano and solar-energy systems.<br />

Smart nanomaterials that self-assemble.<br />

Nanomimetics; products, devices, and materials<br />

that mimic nature’s abilities.<br />

Pollution-eating nano agents that clean the<br />

environment.<br />

Nano-manufacturing foundries for rapid, ondemand<br />

production.<br />

Nanobiometrics that provide security scans.<br />

Military nano weapons.<br />

Nano-enabled robots.<br />

Nano-enabled medical diagnostics that probe<br />

our genes and bodies.<br />

Nano-bio devices that heal, prevent illness, and<br />

restore capabilities.<br />

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TOP BIOTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S: 2020<br />

Genetic vaccines<br />

Gene-replacement therapy<br />

Human-enhancement genetic testing<br />

Genomic disease prevention<br />

Genetic restoration therapy<br />

Biocognitive augmentation<br />

Bioengineered organs<br />

Memory and personality<br />

biorestoration<br />

Longevity medicine<br />

Studying the science of sensation<br />

New Straits Times, Tuesday, May 15, 2012<br />

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TOP NEUROTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S : 2020<br />

Stem-cell therapy for restoring memory.<br />

Brain-machine implants into the cerebral cortex<br />

to activate mobility after paralysis.<br />

Silicon, nano-retinas to provide sight – direct<br />

sensory awareness into the brain, bypassing the<br />

eyes.<br />

Age reversal on cancerous cells using neuropharmacology.<br />

Genomic neurotherapy to reprogram diseasecausing<br />

genes.<br />

Enabling neurons that control robotic arms and<br />

legs – human cybernetics.<br />

Neural engineering to rewire the brain to<br />

combat mental illness and depression.<br />

Brain Research<br />

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TOP INFOTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S:<br />

The Internet has become the largest<br />

global network for ideas, commerce,<br />

health care, and education.<br />

Future chips include nanotech,<br />

photonics, quantum, biotech, or DNA.<br />

More than 100 billion chips will connect<br />

every product and most people.<br />

Future computers have become<br />

wearable devices.<br />

Seamless wireless mobility enables<br />

communication with everyone,<br />

everywhere on the planet.<br />

Anywhere and always-on Internet<br />

connectivity is free.<br />

2025<br />

New Straits Times, Friday, April 6, 2012<br />

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EIGHT FUNDAMENTAL NEW INNOVATIONS<br />

THAT WILL SHAPE <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong><br />

1. Biomimetics Mimicking nature’s mechanisms to make new products.<br />

2. Photonics The use of light to create new products.<br />

3. Nanobiotech The combination of nanotech and biology.<br />

4. Targeted Genomics The use of genetic information to make safer drugs,<br />

foods, and devices.<br />

5. Biodetection The use of biological information to detect risks.<br />

6. Neuro-devices The creation of micro-machines to enhance or fix brain<br />

functions.<br />

7. Nanoenergy The combination of nanotech and energy to create renewable<br />

fuels.<br />

8. Quantum Encryption The use of quantum computing to protect networks,<br />

products, and people.<br />

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HOW TO KILL <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong> OF<br />

YOUR ECONOMY OR COMPANY<br />

Don’t invest in innovation, science, or technology.<br />

Don’t develop, acquire, or protect intellectual property.<br />

Don’t fix the education system.<br />

Hold back on immigration.<br />

Stop training workers to invent innovation.<br />

Restrict investment capital and liquidity.<br />

Limit personal privacy.<br />

Allow terrorism and crime to persist.<br />

Don’t protect individual freedoms; no free press, no free trade.<br />

Create barriers to free enterprise.<br />

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HOW TO GROW <strong>FUTURE</strong><br />

PROSPERITY<br />

1. Upgrade advanced science programs in high schools and colleges.<br />

2. Create a new incentive program to encourage youth to become<br />

scientists, engineers, and tech-savvy entrepreneurs.<br />

3. Teach innovation and entrepreneurship to everyone.<br />

4. Support free trade, free press, open markets, and free enterprise<br />

worldwide.<br />

5. Adopt rule of law for intellectual- property protection.<br />

6. Seed venture capital investments in new innovations.<br />

7. Bring on the Internet and give it to everyone.<br />

8. Learn about nano-bio-IT-neuro innovations.<br />

9. Support radical ideas that may disrupt the status quo.<br />

10. Reward individuals for being innovative.<br />

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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN WORKFORCE<br />

TRENDS<br />

1. A global war for talent will be the top driver of competitive<br />

advantage, pitting nations, individuals, and companies<br />

against one another as talent grows scarce.<br />

2. The future of the workforce should not be defined by<br />

geography, but by talent.<br />

3. The aging of the population in America and Europe will<br />

have dramatic effects on society and the economy.<br />

4. Hispanics and women will dominate the future U.S.<br />

workforce.<br />

5. Women will comprise a high percentage of new workers<br />

and leaders forever changing the politics of boardrooms and<br />

markets.<br />

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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN WORKFORCE<br />

TRENDS<br />

6. Increased immigration will be necessary to enable available<br />

talent to keep up with the demands of business and society.<br />

7. Finding high-tech skilled employees form a global talent<br />

pool will be the greatest challenge for every organization<br />

and every nation.<br />

8. Innovation will be a key driver of workforce skills, requiring<br />

the education system to be completely overhauled.<br />

9. The domestic workforce will grow more slowly because of<br />

dangerously lower fertility rates.<br />

10. Workforce crises that arise in the near future will be<br />

traceable to the lack of skilled workers.<br />

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A positive<br />

outlook on the<br />

future.<br />

Family and<br />

community<br />

involvement; a<br />

commitment to<br />

values.<br />

Higher<br />

education.<br />

Acquiring<br />

science and tech<br />

skills.<br />

Financial<br />

awareness skills<br />

and personal<br />

money<br />

management.<br />

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WHY EDUCATION MUST CHANGE TO<br />

PREPARE <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong> WORKFORCE<br />

1. The current education system has failed to complete its most<br />

vital and strategic mandate; preparing the workforce for<br />

the future.<br />

2. Education does not have the leadership, guts, or vision to<br />

reinvent itself.<br />

3. Most schools, kindergarten through college, are not in sync<br />

with changes in the marketplace – more competitive, more<br />

complex, more global, more innovation-driven.<br />

4. Without educational change, more companies will<br />

outsource to find skilled talent offshore, creating<br />

unemployment in the U.S.<br />

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WHY EDUCATION MUST CHANGE TO<br />

PREPARE <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong> WORKFORCE<br />

5. Teachers are not the problem. Pay teachers double and<br />

retrain them for the Innovation Economy. Measure their<br />

performance, hire the best, and fire the slackers.<br />

6. Political leaders have lacked the courage to create a<br />

Future-Ready national innovation curriculum: more science,<br />

more innovation, more high-tech, a more global outlook,<br />

more entrepreneurial skills.<br />

7. We are teaching kids about the past. We need to teach<br />

kids about the future. How to survive in the Extreme<br />

Future.<br />

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Neuro-Medical Techs<br />

Person Protectors: Personal<br />

Security Techs<br />

Organ Cloners<br />

Biofuture Therapists<br />

Quantum Scientists<br />

Real-Time Business Executives<br />

Online Consumer-Marketing<br />

Wizards<br />

Health Enhancement Therapists<br />

Cancer Enablers<br />

Online Consumer Marketing<br />

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Knowledge<br />

Management<br />

Advisors<br />

On-Demand<br />

Supply-Chain<br />

Designers<br />

Nano-Bio<br />

Entrepreneurs<br />

Global<br />

Headhunters<br />

Artists, Writers,<br />

Poets<br />

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