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utrition The international stock levels of the key cereals raised major concerns in the previous two months. As a result of these low stock levels the price of soybeans and maize as important ingredients in the feed industry, rose steeply towards April. The US maize plantings will cover the second largest area since World War II, but could still fail to replenish low global stock levels (Business Report, 30-03-2011). According to this article, demand is out-running normal production expansion. High prices for cattle and pigs further encourage the demand for feed products. The rising oil price will result in more ethanol production from soybeans and maize. These cost variables have an impact on the domestic maize price, which infl uence the input cost for the production of livestock. Farm level analysis 6 Market conditions Information supplied by Divan van der Westhuizen of the Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) Figure 1: Index for requisites and auction prices The requisites and auction price index focuses on the pork auction price on the hook and the pork input cost index. The main driver in the pork requisites index is the yellow maize SAFEX price. The latest update from the BFAP pork industry index analysis for April includes the new projections for 2011 based on the BFAP model. The latest projections remained relatively the same from the previous analysis in March. The higher maize price forced the requisites index to increase from 2010 to 2011 by 9.20%. For the same period, the auction price index for pork products increased by almost 15%. The requisites and auction price indexes for 2011 are 271.8% and 212% respectively (Base year = 2000). The pork to maize price ratio for BP quality products have declined by ten percent from January to February and then recovered slightly by 3.41% to reach a ratio of 9.91 in March. The ratio for PP quality products followed the same trend and decreased by eleven percent from January to February and then increased by two percent towards March. The ratio at the end of March was 10.04. The main driver for this signifi cant decrease is the bullish trend in the yellow maize price as can be seen in Figure 2. A marginally stronger Rand/US dollar exchange rate could not stop the bullish trend in the maize markets as stipulated in Figure 3. In April, the maize price reached its highest level since December 2008. The yellow maize SAFEX price averaged at R1 679.54/ton in April, almost 20% higher than price levels in December 2010. The maize price, however, is still below export parity. The main drivers of the higher maize price are low global stock levels and an increasing demand for food, feed and biofuels. Mid-summer drought conditions in the eastern and central Figure 2: Pork to maize price ratio parts of South Africa caused lower production estimates for the main cereals, which could further infl uence the maize price. The price for PP quality pork has decreased from January to February and then had a sideways movement towards March. The price for PP pork meat averaged at R16.28/kg in February, which is 0.78% lower than price levels in January. Towards March, the price recovered slightly to R16.31/kg. On a year-toyear basis, the price is still two percent higher. Figure 3: Pork price and YM SAFEX price In the sample of pork producers for sow and sale numbers, the quantity of sows had a sideways movement from January towards March. The moving average (four month average) in February was 30 981 sows. During March the number was marginally lower at 30 960. The actual sow numbers in the sample space was 30 988 and 30 773 for February and March respectively. The number of sales has decreased by 0.7% from January to March. The moving average for number of sales was 53 995 in March, 0.8% lower than in January. Actual sales for February and March was 53 473 and 53 491 respectively. On a year-to-year basis, the actual sow and sales numbers were 0.5% and 2.6% lower. The moving average (MA) trend for the number of services and piglets born has decreased marginally from the beginning of the year towards March. The moving average for the number of services was 0.47% lower than in January, to reach a number of 7 131 in March. Actual services for February and March were 7 171 and 7 002 respectively. The number of piglets born (MA) followed the same trend and has decreased slightly by 0.4% from January towards March. In actual terms, the value remained relatively the same. Actual piglets born in the sample for February and March were 64 456 and 64 262 respectively. On a year-to-year basis the number of services was 2.63% lower and the number of piglets born was almost one percent higher for the same period in 2010. Porcus April/Mei 2011
Figure 4: Sow numbers vs sales 1 Abattoir level analysis Market conditions The abattoir analysis focuses on two aspects, namely the total number of pigs slaughtered and number slaughtered per province. The total number of pigs slaughtered for the third levy period has decreased by 7.11% from January to February. Towards March, the number of slaughterings recovered, increasing by 16.68%. The total number of pigs slaughtered in February and March were 182 036 and 212 395 respectively. When considering a three-month moving average (MA), the number of slaughterings in March reached 196 798 animals, 1.46% lower than the MA in January as indicated in Figure 6. There was a sharp decrease in the slaughter of other livestock. The number of cattle slaughtered, decreased by 6.4% from January to March. The total number of sheep slaughtered, has declined by 11.62%. The actual slaughterings for cattle and sheep in Figure 5: Services vs piglets born 2 March were 191 694 and 389 162 respectively. When considering provincial slaughters, the number of slaughters in Gauteng had a sideways movement from January towards March with 87 247 animals slaughterings. There was a sharp increase in the number of slaughterings in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape from January to March. Slaughterings have increased by 14.33% and 23.47% in KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape respectively, to reach values of 33 127 and 30 461 animals slaughtered. National slaughterings could increase in the short term, due to an increased demand for the Easter holidays. During January towards March, all meat classes had sideways movements and then increased marginally towards the end of March except for PP quality pork, which followed a relatively constant trend. BP pork was the best performer in terms of marginal movements. The price in the last week of January was R15.71/kg. BP quality pork prices then moved sideways Figure 6: Total numbers slaughtered (national estimates) towards the end of February, then increased by 2.54% towards the week of the 25th of March, at a price of R16.13/kg. For the same period in 2010, the price for BP pork was R15.36/kg. The prices for BO and BR classes followed a similar trend, where both had a sideways movement towards 25th of February and then increased by 2.62% and 1.65% respectively towards the end of March. The price of BO and BR quality pork was R16.06/kg and R15.38/kg during the week of 25 March. As stated earlier, the price for PP pork products have decreased by 1.45% from the 7th of January to the 4th of February. PP prices then remained constant to the end of March where the price was R16.26/kg. Figure 7: Slaughterings per province Figure 8: Average price for various classes 3 Wholesale and retail price analysis Index levels The margin analysis in the sample for porker and baconer prod- Continued on p 8 Porcus April/May 2011 7
Page 1: PORCUS April/Mei 2011 Vol 29 no 3
Page 4 and 5: 4 saVpo Registrasievorm Porcus Apri
Page 8 and 9: nutrition Market conditions continu
Page 10 and 11: 10 production Porcus Januarie/Febru
Page 12 and 13: 12 Quality assurance Animal Health
Page 14 and 15: 14 Instavet Marking Sticks Less 10%
Page 17 and 18: Sow selection can beat heat stress
Page 19 and 20: electricity Agricultural sector not
Page 21 and 22: the animal, satisfying the consumer
Page 23 and 24: Quality assurance Porcus January/Fe
Page 25 and 26: mG2mix inFormation day The Premix c
Page 27 and 28: MG2Mix Continued from p 25 Porcus A
Page 29 and 30: Porcus January/February 2011
Page 31 and 32: Feed Resistance patterns of Salmone
Page 33 and 34: promotional Understanding Coccidios
Page 35 and 36: animal diseases Quick guide to: Pne
Page 37 and 38: Sally Wilson of KZN helps some newc
Page 39: traininG Porcus April/May 2011 39

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