ARTWORK BACKGROUND REPORT - Skate's Art Market Research
ARTWORK BACKGROUND REPORT - Skate's Art Market Research
ARTWORK BACKGROUND REPORT - Skate's Art Market Research
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<strong>ARTWORK</strong> <strong>BACKGROUND</strong> <strong>REPORT</strong><br />
<strong>Art</strong>ist:<br />
Title:<br />
Date of Report:<br />
Edvard Munch<br />
The Sick Child I (1896)<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Transparency for the Global <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> Since 2004<br />
www.skatepress.com
1. <strong>Art</strong>work Profiled<br />
Contents<br />
2. Skate’s Investment Summary<br />
3. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra=ng<br />
4. Brief Biography of Edvard Munch<br />
5. Past and Present Exhibi=ons of Munch’s Works<br />
6. Galleries Currently Selling Munch’s Works<br />
7. Provenance / Catalogue Raisonné Reference<br />
8. Known TheTs of Munch’s Works<br />
9. Known Forgeries of Munch’s Works<br />
10. <strong>Market</strong> for Munch’s Works<br />
Top 10 Munch Sales<br />
Repeat Sales of Munch’s Works<br />
11. <strong>Market</strong> for The Sick Child I<br />
PeerGroupforThe Sick Child I<br />
Repeat Sale in Peer Group<br />
12. Approach to <strong>Art</strong> Valua=on<br />
13. Suggested Valua=on<br />
14. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Scale<br />
15. Peer Group Forma=on<br />
16. Disclaimer<br />
Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong><br />
575 Broadway, 5th Floor<br />
New York, NY 10012<br />
/ Tel: +1.212.514.6012 / Fax: +1.212.514.6037<br />
www.skatepress.com<br />
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1. <strong>Art</strong>work Profiled<br />
This report has been prepared for the following artwork:<br />
Ar=st: Edvard Munch (1863 -‐ 1944)<br />
Title: The Sick Child I<br />
Year: 1896<br />
Medium: lithograph printed in colours<br />
Size: L. 421 x 565 mm., S. 580 x 705 mm.<br />
The artwork is listed in the catalogue of the following auc=on:<br />
Auc=on House: Chris=e’s<br />
Auc=on Loca=on: London<br />
Auc=on Name: Old Master, Modern & Contemporary Prints<br />
Lot: 122<br />
Auc=on Date: Wednesday, March 31, 2010<br />
Auc=on Es=mate: £180,000 -‐ 250,000 ($274,140 -‐ $380,750)<br />
Source: Courtesy of Chris5e’s. Images of Edvard Munch’s works are<br />
subject to copyright protec5on by BONO (Norway), represented in<br />
the United States by Ar5sts Rights Society.<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 2
2. Skate’s Investment Summary<br />
Ar5st<br />
Edvard Munch is classified by Skate’s as a third-‐=er ar=st, the middle category in Skate’s rankings<br />
of ar=sts. For a complete list of ar=st categories, please refer to pg. 84 of Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> Investment<br />
Handbook.<br />
Based on Skate’s Top 1000 ranking of the world’s most valuable art (in nominal auc=on prices,<br />
USD, and including buyer’s premium), as of March 23, 2010:<br />
• Edvard Munch is the 28th most valuable ar=st with 7 artworks in Skate’s Top 1000. The<br />
total market value of these works is $107,199,448.<br />
• The average Munch work listed in Skate’s Top 1000 is priced at $14,233,101 (the average<br />
work in Skate’s Top 1000 in general is $13,573,025).<br />
<strong>Art</strong>work<br />
Edvard Munch’s most valuable works (in terms of market prices) were created during the period<br />
of his career from the mid-‐1890s un=l the mid-‐1900s; all but one of his top ten highest priced<br />
works were created during this period.<br />
Printed in 1896, The Sick Child I belongs to a series of similar lithographs all from 1896. Although<br />
this series has seen some strong auc=on results and although it generally belongs to the highest-‐<br />
priced period of Munch’s art, the lithograph medium has generally failed to bring anywhere near<br />
the prices paid for pain=ngs of the same era.<br />
Based on the peer group of similar Munch works from the series discussed further in this report,<br />
our recommended price range for The Sick Child I (from the perspec=ve of ra=onal art<br />
investment) is:<br />
$250,000-‐300,000<br />
We recommend bidding within the lower end of the auc=on house’s suggested price range.<br />
Investment risk summary<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
The Sick Child I is rated BBB+ on Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Scale (see Sec=on 13 for the full scale),<br />
which corresponds to Tier-‐3 investment grade art. Skate’s posi=ve outlook is due to both the<br />
work’s sale at a top-‐=er auc=on house and the low level of authen=city and =tle risk associated<br />
with this work. For a detailed discussion of any risks associated with this pain=ng, refer to<br />
Sec=on 3 of this report.<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 3
3. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra>ng<br />
The Sick Child I is an investment quality work of art and rated BBB+, a ra=ng that captures the<br />
following risk factors:<br />
Ar5st Liquidity Risk: Low<br />
• Edvard Munch was a top Symbolist ar=st who enjoyed a long and prolific career. The<br />
market for his works is both broad and liquid.<br />
Ar5st Price Vola5lity Risk: Low<br />
• Edvard Munch’s art has a well-‐established historical track record of auc=on prices.<br />
Mul=ple price points in the public domain allow accurate peer groups to be constructed.<br />
Furthermore, there is a strong record of posi=ve returns on repeat sales of several Munch<br />
works.<br />
Title Risk: Moderate-‐High<br />
• Edvard Munch is not the most amrac=ve ar=st for thieves, but a number of recent<br />
notorious theTs do cast a shadow (see Sec=on 8). Two of these recent theTs involved<br />
lithographs. Nevertheless, it should be said that all four recent theTs took place in Oslo,<br />
and each =me they were carried out with surprising ease, which could be explained by an<br />
unusually low level of security in the city. The moderate-‐high =tle risk ra=ng, the absence<br />
of a =tle guarantee, and the pre-‐World War II date of crea=on are the primary factors that<br />
have led Skate’s to place The Sick Child I in the Tier-‐4 category for investment grade art.<br />
Authen5city Risk: Low<br />
• A typical feature of Munch's graphic work is that he neither numbered his prints nor stated<br />
the size of the edi=on. Furthermore, he did not have the plates destroyed once the<br />
prin=ng was complete. On the contrary, he tried to preserve his stones and plates so that<br />
he could take further impressions at a later date. Consequently, in many cases many years<br />
may have passed between the date when Munch worked the plate and the =me the last<br />
print was pulled from it. This led to great varia=on in the quality of prints from the same<br />
plate. Though the most of the reprints were done in Munch's own life=me and largely<br />
under his control, there is s=ll a slight risk that a reprint could have been completed aTer<br />
his death. Given the fact that this transac=on is taking place at a first-‐=er auc=on house<br />
that can provide proper authen=ca=on, we view the level of authen=city risk as low.<br />
Condi5on Risk: Low-‐Moderate<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
• The Sick Child I is 114 years old and has not experienced considerable travel or numerous<br />
changes in ownership. Although Chris=e’s catalogue notes the excellent condi=on of the<br />
print, poten=al buyers may want to examine condi=on before comple=ng a transac=on.<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 4
4. Brief Biography of Edvard Munch<br />
Source:Tilvekstnummer: NF.WA 02488 Internnr: NBR9407:01241<br />
1863 Born on 12th December in Løten, Hedmark.<br />
1864 The family moves to Kristiania (Oslo).<br />
1868 Munch’s mother dies from tuberculosis.<br />
1877 Munch’s sister Sofie dies from tuberculosis, 15 years old.<br />
1880 Munch discontinues his engineering studies and decides to become a painter.<br />
1881 Student at The Royal Academy of Drawing in Kristiania (Oslo).<br />
1882 Rents a studio near Stortings plass. The painter Christian Krohg corrects his work.<br />
1884 Comes into contact with Hans Jæger and the Kristiania Bohemians.<br />
1885 Exhibits at the World Exhibition in Antwerp. Study trip to Paris.<br />
1886 Participates in the Autumn Exhibition with the painting The Sick Child, called<br />
Study. This arouses a storm of protests.<br />
1889 First solo exhibition in Kristiania. Spends the summer in Åsgårdstrand. Receives<br />
a State grant for artists. Travels to Paris in October – begins studying with Léon<br />
Bonnat. His father dies.<br />
1890 At St. Cloud outside Paris. Spends the summer in Åsgårdstrand and Kristiania.<br />
Receives a second State grant for artists. Travels to France in November.<br />
1891 Paris and Nice. Summer in Norway. Receives a third State grant for artists.<br />
Travels to Paris in the autumn. Makes sketches for The Frieze of Life.<br />
1892 Paints Despair which he later develops into the motif The Scream. Exhibits at<br />
Verein Berliner Künstler. The exhibition is closed after one week due to protests.<br />
1893 Berlin. Associates with August Strindberg, Holger Drachmann, Dagny Juel,<br />
Stanislaw Przybyszewski etc. The Frieze of Life begins to take shape. Paints The<br />
Scream and Madonna.<br />
1894 The first etchings and lithographs are printed in Berlin.<br />
1895 Berlin and Paris<br />
1896 Works with illustrations for Baudelaire’s Les Fleurs du Mal. Prints colour<br />
lithographs and his first woodcuts at Clot’s printing studio in Paris.<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 5
1898 Paris and Berlin. Meets Tulla Larsen in Kristiania.<br />
1902 Exhibits The Frieze of Life – 22 paintings, at the Berlin Secession. Introduced to<br />
Dr. Max Linde in Lübeck. Is wounded in the left hand during the break-up with<br />
Tulla Larsen in Åsgårdstrand.<br />
1903 Berlin, Paris and Lübeck. Becomes a member of the Société des <strong>Art</strong>istes<br />
Indépendants.<br />
1905 Successful exhibition in Prague. Resident at various clinics due to nerve problems<br />
and misuse of alcohol.<br />
1906 Introduced to the court at Weimar. Makes proposals for theatre decorations for<br />
Ibsen’s Ghosts and Hedda Gabler for Max Reinhardt’s Chamber Theatre<br />
production at the Deutschen Theater.<br />
1907 Berlin. Paints a frieze for the foyer of Max Reinhardt’s theatre. Summer and<br />
autumn at Warnemünde on Germany’s Baltic coast.<br />
1908 Winter in Berlin. Summer in Warnemünde. Has a nervous breakdown in<br />
Copenhagen and admits himself to Dr. Jacobson’s Clinic. Receives the Royal<br />
Order of St. Olav.<br />
1909 Returns home to Norway in May. Settles in Kragerø. Begins work on the proposal<br />
for the decoration of the University Hall in Kristiania.<br />
1912 Awarded his own exhibition space at the Sonderbund Exhibition in Cologne. His<br />
work is placed beside that of Cézanne, Gauguin and Van Gogh.<br />
1914 Berlin and Paris. Summer in Kragerø, Hvitsten and Jeløya. The University accepts<br />
Munch’s proposed project for the University Hall.<br />
1916 Buys Ekely – the property just outside Kristiania. The decoration of the<br />
University Hall is unveiled in September.<br />
1918-19 Publishes the document The Frieze of Life in connection with his exhibition at<br />
Blomqvist in Kristiania. Contracts Spanish influenza.<br />
1922 Commissioned to decorate the employees’ canteen of Freia Chocolate Factory in<br />
Kristiania.<br />
1928 Works on a proposal for the decoration of Oslo Town Hall.<br />
1929 Builds a new winter studio at Ekely.<br />
1930-31 Contracts an eye disease.<br />
1933 Receives the Grand Cross of the Order of St. Olav.<br />
1944 Dies peacefully at Ekely on 23rd January. In his will, he leaves all his remaining<br />
work to Oslo Kommune (The City of Oslo): c. 1 100 paintings, c. 18 000 prints, c.<br />
4 500 watercolours and drawings, 6 sculptures, 92 sketch books and numerous<br />
letters and other correspondence.<br />
Source: The Munch Museum<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 6
5. Past and Present Museum Exhibi>ons of Munch’s Works<br />
Europe<br />
• Munch Museum, Oslo, Norway<br />
• De Pont Founda=on for Contemporary <strong>Art</strong>,<br />
Netherlands<br />
• Na=onal Galleries of Scotland, Edinburgh, UK<br />
• Birmingham Museums & <strong>Art</strong> Gallery, UK<br />
• Courtauld Ins=tute of <strong>Art</strong>, London, UK<br />
• Tate Gallery, London, UK<br />
• Falmouth <strong>Art</strong> Gallery, England<br />
• Neue Pinakothek, Munich, Germany<br />
• Von der Heydt-‐Museum, Wuppertal, Germany<br />
• Wallraf-‐Richartz-‐Museum, Cologne, Germany<br />
• Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam<br />
• Museum Boijmans Van Beuningen, Romerdam<br />
• Haugesund Museum of Fine <strong>Art</strong>, Norway<br />
• Kunsthaus Zurich<br />
• Kunstmuseum Basel, Switzerland<br />
• Österreichische Galerie Belvedere, Vienna, Austria<br />
• The Alber=na, Vienna, Austria<br />
• Thyssen-‐Bornemisza Museum, Madrid<br />
North America<br />
• <strong>Art</strong> Ins=tute of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA<br />
• Museum of Modern <strong>Art</strong>, New York, NY, USA<br />
6. Galleries Currently Selling Munch’s Works<br />
Europe<br />
• Idbury Prints, Oxon, UK<br />
• Grev Wedels Plass Auksjoner, Oslo, Norway<br />
• Kaare Berntsen, Oslo, Norway<br />
• Villa Grisebach Auk=onen GmbH, Berlin, Germany<br />
• Galleri Faurschou, Copenhagen, Denmark<br />
• Detroit Ins=tute of <strong>Art</strong>s, Detroit, MI, USA<br />
• Na=onal Gallery of <strong>Art</strong>, Washington D.C., USA<br />
• Museum of Fine <strong>Art</strong>s, Boston, MA, USA<br />
• Museum of Fine <strong>Art</strong>s, Houston, TX, USA<br />
• Allen <strong>Art</strong> Museum at Oberlin College, OH, USA<br />
• Brooklyn Museum, New York, NY, USA<br />
• Cleveland Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, Cleveland, OH, USA<br />
• J. Paul Gemy Museum, Los Angeles, CA, USA<br />
• Fine <strong>Art</strong>s Museums of San Francisco, CA, USA<br />
• Harvard University <strong>Art</strong> Museums, Cambridge, MA,<br />
USA<br />
• Indianapolis Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, Indianapolis, IN, USA<br />
• Kimbell <strong>Art</strong> Museum, Fort Worth, TX, USA<br />
• McMullen Museum of <strong>Art</strong> at Boston College,<br />
Chestnut Hill, MA, USA<br />
• Minneapolis Ins=tute of <strong>Art</strong>s, Minneapolis, MN, USA<br />
• Princeton University <strong>Art</strong> Museum, Princeton, NJ, USA<br />
• San Diego Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, San Diego, CA<br />
• MacKenzie <strong>Art</strong> Gallery, Saskatchewan, Canada<br />
Asia-‐Pacific<br />
• Tel Aviv Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, Tel Aviv, Israel<br />
• <strong>Art</strong> Gallery of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 7
7. Provenance / Catalogue Raisonné Reference<br />
From Chris8e’s catalogue for Sale 7839, Lot 122, London, United Kingdom, March<br />
31, 2010:<br />
From a Private German Collec5on<br />
Edvard Munch : the complete graphic<br />
works<br />
Gerd Woll, New York : H.N. Abrams ; Oslo :<br />
In Associa5on with Munch-‐Museet, 2001.<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 8
8. Known TheTs of Munch’s Works<br />
Edvard Munch is a moderate-‐high risk ar=st under Skate’s theT risk classifica=on.<br />
• Interpol lists as stolen the following work by Edvard Munch:<br />
• Other notable theTs<br />
Portrait Study -‐<br />
reported stolen in<br />
Norway on August 20,<br />
1993<br />
On August 22, 2004, the BBC<br />
reported that a version of The<br />
Scream and Madonna by Edvard<br />
Munch were stolen from Oslo's<br />
Munch Museum. The artworks<br />
were recovered in August 2006,<br />
both sustained damage and<br />
underwent restoraWon. In May<br />
2009, those connected with the<br />
theZ were convicted and<br />
sentenced.<br />
On February 12, 1994 a version of The<br />
Scream was stolen in from the NaWonal<br />
Gallery in Oslo -‐ It was recovered<br />
undamaged on May 7, 1994. In January<br />
1996, four men were convicted in<br />
connecWon with the theZ.<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 9
On November 13, 2009, The New<br />
York Times reported that a hand<br />
colored lithograph by Edvard Munch<br />
-‐ History -‐ was stolen from an art<br />
gallery in Oslo, Norway the previous<br />
day. The work has not been found.<br />
On November 18, 2009, police<br />
reported the theZ of Munch’s litograph<br />
Loesrivelsen II (The Separa5on II) from<br />
an Oslo gallery during its move in June.<br />
The Sick Child I is not currently listed on an Interpol or FBI stop list and was not listed as missing by <strong>Art</strong><br />
Loss Register.<br />
9. Known Forgeries of Munch’s Works<br />
Norwegian media have reported that several fake versions of works by the<br />
Norwegian Painter Edvard Munch have been offered on the global art market. Two<br />
of these have been discovered in Norway.<br />
The Munch Museum has confirmed the existence of even different works that have<br />
been on offer. The experts there say they have never before seen fakes that have<br />
been so painstakingly made, and they now warn against what they see as<br />
organized distribution of the fakes.<br />
The Museum has been contacted by a number of art dealers from around the<br />
world.<br />
Source: The Norway Post<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 10
10. <strong>Market</strong> for Munch’s Works<br />
Edvard Munch is a third-‐=er investment quality ar=st with a well-‐established historical track<br />
record of auc=on prices. Mul=ple price points in the public domain allow for accurate peer<br />
groups to be constructed.<br />
Munch’s most valuable works from the standpoint of auc=on prices were created in the last<br />
decade of 19th century and the first decade of 20th century.<br />
Top 10 Munch Sales<br />
Rank Title<br />
Year of<br />
Crea>on<br />
Date of Sale Auc>on Premium Price, USD<br />
1 Vampire 1894 Nov. 3, 2008 Sotheby’s 38,162,500<br />
2 Girls on a Bridge 1902 May 7, 2008 Sotheby’s 30,841,000<br />
3 Summer day 1904 Feb. 7, 2006 Sotheby’s 10,835,325<br />
4 View from Nordstand 1900 Feb. 5, 2007 Sotheby’s 7,528,145<br />
5 Haus in Aasgaardstrand 1905 Feb. 4, 2002 ChrisWe’s 7,315,822<br />
6 Self-‐portrait (against two-‐coloured background) 1904 Feb. 7, 2006 Sotheby’s 6,310,066<br />
7 SpringWme 1911 Feb. 5, 2007 Sotheby’s 6,206,590<br />
8 Badende 1897 Feb. 4, 2002 ChrisWe’s 4,883,782<br />
9 Sommernab, åsgårdstrand (Summer night, åsgårdstrand) 1902 May 3, 2005 Sotheby’s 4,496,000<br />
10 From Åsgårdstrand 1904 Jun. 25, 2008 Sotheby’s 4,046,405<br />
Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong> (auc5on results from Chris5e's and Sotheby’s)<br />
Repeat Sale of Munch’s Works*<br />
Title<br />
Year of<br />
Crea>on<br />
Date of Sale Auc>on Premium Price, USD ERR**, %<br />
Holding<br />
Period, Years<br />
Girls on a Bridge 1902 May 7, 2008 Sotheby’s 1,272,000 11.57% 11<br />
Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong><br />
*Based on presence in Top 10 Munch sales above<br />
**Annualized effec5ve rate of return<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 11
Our sampling of repeat sales (limited to the Top 10 works above) shows that Edvard Munch is a<br />
strong choice as an investment target.<br />
ATer an 11-‐year holding period, Girls on a Bridge achieved an 11.57% effec=ve rate of return<br />
(ERR) on an annualized basis.<br />
Poten=al buyers should expect considerable price stability with Munch’s work and assuming that<br />
an irra=onal premium is avoided at the =me of purchase (see more in Sec=on 13 below), buyers<br />
should assume that The Sick Child I will at least maintain its value over the long term.<br />
11. <strong>Market</strong> for The Sick Child I<br />
Peer Group for The Sick Child I<br />
The sick child I<br />
The sick child I<br />
The sick child I<br />
Work Medium Year of<br />
crea>on<br />
The sick child I (Das Kranke Kind<br />
I)<br />
The sick child I (Das kranke Kind<br />
I)<br />
The sick child I<br />
The sick child I<br />
Color<br />
lithograph<br />
lithograph in<br />
black, grey,<br />
red and<br />
yellow<br />
lithograph in<br />
colors<br />
lithograph in<br />
black, grey,<br />
yellow and<br />
red<br />
Color<br />
lithograph<br />
Color<br />
lithograph<br />
Color<br />
lithograph<br />
Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong>, artnet<br />
N.B. Repeat sale indicated in blue<br />
Repeat Sales in Peer Group<br />
Title<br />
Year of<br />
Crea>on<br />
Auc>on Date of sale<br />
Es>mate (low)<br />
USD<br />
Es>mate (high)<br />
USD<br />
Premium Price,<br />
USD<br />
1896 ChrisWe's Oct. 30, 2007 200,000 300,000 668,200<br />
1896 Sotheby's Sep. 20, 2007 202,429 303,643 496,975<br />
1896 ChrisWe's May 3, 2005 20,000 30,000 62,400<br />
1896 Sotheby's Apr. 29, 2005 250,000 350,000 296,000<br />
1896 ChrisWe's Jun. 30, 2004 108,695 144,927 129,891<br />
1896 Sotheby's Nov. 8, 2002 150,000 250,000 207,500<br />
1896 ChrisWe's Nov. 5, 2002 18,000 22,000 45,410<br />
Date of Sale Auc>on Premium Price, USD ERR**, %<br />
Holding<br />
Period, Years<br />
The Sick Child I (Das Kranke Kind I) 1896 Sep. 20, 2007 Sotheby’s 496,975 14.02% 2.4<br />
Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong><br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 12
The es=mate set by Chris=e’s for the March 31, 2010 sale of The Sick Child I is the highest ever<br />
for this peer group, which means that purchasing within this es=mate range slightly increases<br />
the likelihood of a nega=ve return on investment in the event of a resale. This risk remains<br />
minimal, however, as all of the sales in the above peer group have sold either comfortably in the<br />
middle of the es=mate range or well above the high es=mates assigned by the auc=on houses.<br />
A strong investment case also comes from the fact that all of the works in the peer group found<br />
buyers at auc=on (i.e., none of the works was “bought in” by the auc=on houses).<br />
Poten=al buyers should note the large price gap for works in The Sick Child I’s peer group, which<br />
can in part be explained by differences in the quality of the lithographs sold. In 1894, Munch<br />
produced his first works in this medium, so it was a completely new field for him. Chris=e’s sale<br />
catalogue notes the superior quality of the edi=on profiled in this report.<br />
Part of the reason for the large price gap is invariably =ed to the irra=onal premium paid at the<br />
=me of purchase. The average work in the peer group (including the repeat sale) sold for<br />
$272,339, which is on the low end of Chris=e’s es=mate range for this sale.<br />
Edvard Munch’s repeat sales show that his works can be a reasonable bet as an investment<br />
target. Although there has been only one repeat sale among Munch’s most valuable works (Girls<br />
on a Bridge), its effec=ve rate of return was a solid 11.57%. Its sale during the summer of 2008 -‐<br />
just before the global financial crisis got underway and before the art market shiTed decidedly<br />
away from Contemporary art toward Impressionist and Modern art -‐ confirms Munch’s strength<br />
and low level of price vola=lity. The resale in the sick child peer group occurred on September<br />
20, 2007 -‐ i.e., at the very height of boom in the market for Contemporary art. This result only<br />
provides further confirma=on of Munch’s price stability.<br />
The Sick Child I is a lithograph and cannot be directly compared with a pain=ng such as Girls on a<br />
Bridge. However, both artworks are superior in quality and capture the most famous themes of<br />
Munch’s art. There is a high probability, therefore, that his iconic status might boost the<br />
irra=onal premium paid in the event of the work’s repeat sale at auc=on.<br />
12. Approach to <strong>Art</strong> Valua>on<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
Skate’s approach to art valua=on is based on the applica=on of Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> Asset Pricing Model<br />
(AAPM), which defines a valua=on range for an artwork based on the valua=on range of<br />
comparable artworks (i.e., a peer group). An adjustment is made using a provenance factor (i.e.,<br />
a discount rate that varies between 0 and 1 and captures all the risks per=nent to the art asset,<br />
including authen=city, =tle and transport restric=ons) and irra=onal premium reflec=ng personal<br />
affec=on of a poten=al buyer and the individual artwork.<br />
We have not es=mated an irra=onal premium that can be added to this artwork (i.e., an es=mate<br />
on how much a buyer may be willing to pay beyond the fair value), which can drama=cally affect<br />
an artwork’s final selling price. We believe, however, that the auc=on’s suggested pricing range<br />
for the artwork does imply that a buyer may be willing to pay an irra=onal premium amoun=ng<br />
to 20% more than the price levels of comparable artworks (i.e., the peer group discussed above).<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 13
13. Suggested Valua>on<br />
Based on the informa=on we have on the artwork offered for sale and the historical<br />
performance of Edvard Munch’s works at auc=on, for The Sick Child I Skate’s would recommend<br />
assigning a valua=on within the $250,000-‐300,000 range, including buyer’s premium. Given<br />
previous prices for works in The Sick Child I’s peer group, a poten=al buyer could bid somewhat<br />
higher than Chris=e’s es=mate range before paying a significant irra=onal premium. If such is the<br />
goal of the purchaser, a posi=ve return on this investment is likely given a proper holding<br />
strategy.<br />
Prior to engaging in a transac=on with The Sick Child I, Skate’s would recommend that poten=al<br />
buyers thoroughly research all transac=on costs, including auc=on house commissions, UK taxes,<br />
as well as transport and insurance expenses. Poten=al buyers would also be advised to check on<br />
any poten=al export restric=ons involving this work.<br />
14. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra>ng Scale<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
<strong>Skate's</strong> <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra=ng Scale consists of three major parts: Investment Quality (Grade),<br />
Specula=ve Quality (Grade) and Non-‐investment Quality (Grade).<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 14
15. Peer Group Forma>on<br />
The forma=on of peer groups for use in Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Background Reports varies considerably<br />
depending on the ar=st and the size of the sample. In general, all peer groups are limited to a<br />
single ar=st and medium. The peer groups used by Skate’s contain works by only one ar=st for<br />
the reason that the inclusion of more than one name would represent a subjec=ve judgement<br />
that would inevitably lead to skewed pricing results in the peer group.<br />
Once an ini=al sampling of works is obtained, peer groups are narrowed by year of crea=on (or<br />
range of years), subject and, in some cases, size.<br />
Although in prac=ce there is no standard number of works included in the peer groups used by<br />
Skate’s, experience has shown that groups of 5-‐15 works tend to be the most efficient when it<br />
comes to showing the market dynamics for a given work.<br />
16. Disclaimer<br />
Report 3-‐EM-‐001<br />
Client 0030<br />
March 30, 2010<br />
This report is not an appraisal, condi=on report or authen=city report. It has been prepared<br />
using publicly available sources of informa=on and without seeing or otherwise examining the<br />
actual artwork. Upon request, Skate’s is able to provide addi=onal research into provenance and<br />
other amributes, as well as to secure access to the paperwork necessary for comple=ng due<br />
diligence on =tle quality and preparing a more accurate valua=on range. In certain<br />
circumstances, Skate’s is able to arrange for a full authen=ca=on of the artwork.<br />
Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong> is an independent art investment research provider that is majority<br />
owned by IndexAtlas Group (www.indexatlas.com).<br />
Neither Skate’s nor IndexAtlas Group are involved in or have otherwise vested interest in any art<br />
trade or art assets.<br />
<strong>Skate's</strong>, LLC believes that the informa=on in the report is reliable, but it does not guarantee, and<br />
has not independently verified, its accuracy. <strong>Skate's</strong>, its affiliates, and any third party providers,<br />
as well as its and their managers, directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (each a<br />
"<strong>Skate's</strong> Party") do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and =meliness of the informa=on<br />
in the report or any valua=on or opinion stated in the report (which informa=on, valua=ons and<br />
opinions are referred to as the "Content"). <strong>Skate's</strong> provides the Content on an “as is” basis. EACH<br />
SKATE'S PARTY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT<br />
NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR<br />
PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall any <strong>Skate's</strong> Party be liable to any party for any direct,<br />
indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, puni=ve, special or consequen=al damages, costs,<br />
expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limita=on, lost income or lost profits and<br />
opportunity costs) in connec=on with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of<br />
such damages.<br />
Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 15