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ARTWORK BACKGROUND REPORT - Skate's Art Market Research

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<strong>ARTWORK</strong> <strong>BACKGROUND</strong> <strong>REPORT</strong><br />

<strong>Art</strong>ist:<br />

Title:<br />

Date of Report:<br />

Edvard Munch<br />

The Sick Child I (1896)<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Transparency for the Global <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> Since 2004<br />

www.skatepress.com


1. <strong>Art</strong>work Profiled<br />

Contents<br />

2. Skate’s Investment Summary<br />

3. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra=ng<br />

4. Brief Biography of Edvard Munch<br />

5. Past and Present Exhibi=ons of Munch’s Works<br />

6. Galleries Currently Selling Munch’s Works<br />

7. Provenance / Catalogue Raisonné Reference<br />

8. Known TheTs of Munch’s Works<br />

9. Known Forgeries of Munch’s Works<br />

10. <strong>Market</strong> for Munch’s Works<br />

Top 10 Munch Sales<br />

Repeat Sales of Munch’s Works<br />

11. <strong>Market</strong> for The Sick Child I<br />

PeerGroupforThe Sick Child I<br />

Repeat Sale in Peer Group<br />

12. Approach to <strong>Art</strong> Valua=on<br />

13. Suggested Valua=on<br />

14. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Scale<br />

15. Peer Group Forma=on<br />

16. Disclaimer<br />

Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong><br />

575 Broadway, 5th Floor<br />

New York, NY 10012<br />

/ Tel: +1.212.514.6012 / Fax: +1.212.514.6037<br />

www.skatepress.com<br />

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1. <strong>Art</strong>work Profiled<br />

This report has been prepared for the following artwork:<br />

Ar=st: Edvard Munch (1863 -­‐ 1944)<br />

Title: The Sick Child I<br />

Year: 1896<br />

Medium: lithograph printed in colours<br />

Size: L. 421 x 565 mm., S. 580 x 705 mm.<br />

The artwork is listed in the catalogue of the following auc=on:<br />

Auc=on House: Chris=e’s<br />

Auc=on Loca=on: London<br />

Auc=on Name: Old Master, Modern & Contemporary Prints<br />

Lot: 122<br />

Auc=on Date: Wednesday, March 31, 2010<br />

Auc=on Es=mate: £180,000 -­‐ 250,000 ($274,140 -­‐ $380,750)<br />

Source: Courtesy of Chris5e’s. Images of Edvard Munch’s works are<br />

subject to copyright protec5on by BONO (Norway), represented in<br />

the United States by Ar5sts Rights Society.<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 2


2. Skate’s Investment Summary<br />

Ar5st<br />

Edvard Munch is classified by Skate’s as a third-­‐=er ar=st, the middle category in Skate’s rankings<br />

of ar=sts. For a complete list of ar=st categories, please refer to pg. 84 of Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> Investment<br />

Handbook.<br />

Based on Skate’s Top 1000 ranking of the world’s most valuable art (in nominal auc=on prices,<br />

USD, and including buyer’s premium), as of March 23, 2010:<br />

• Edvard Munch is the 28th most valuable ar=st with 7 artworks in Skate’s Top 1000. The<br />

total market value of these works is $107,199,448.<br />

• The average Munch work listed in Skate’s Top 1000 is priced at $14,233,101 (the average<br />

work in Skate’s Top 1000 in general is $13,573,025).<br />

<strong>Art</strong>work<br />

Edvard Munch’s most valuable works (in terms of market prices) were created during the period<br />

of his career from the mid-­‐1890s un=l the mid-­‐1900s; all but one of his top ten highest priced<br />

works were created during this period.<br />

Printed in 1896, The Sick Child I belongs to a series of similar lithographs all from 1896. Although<br />

this series has seen some strong auc=on results and although it generally belongs to the highest-­‐<br />

priced period of Munch’s art, the lithograph medium has generally failed to bring anywhere near<br />

the prices paid for pain=ngs of the same era.<br />

Based on the peer group of similar Munch works from the series discussed further in this report,<br />

our recommended price range for The Sick Child I (from the perspec=ve of ra=onal art<br />

investment) is:<br />

$250,000-­‐300,000<br />

We recommend bidding within the lower end of the auc=on house’s suggested price range.<br />

Investment risk summary<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

The Sick Child I is rated BBB+ on Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Scale (see Sec=on 13 for the full scale),<br />

which corresponds to Tier-­‐3 investment grade art. Skate’s posi=ve outlook is due to both the<br />

work’s sale at a top-­‐=er auc=on house and the low level of authen=city and =tle risk associated<br />

with this work. For a detailed discussion of any risks associated with this pain=ng, refer to<br />

Sec=on 3 of this report.<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 3


3. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra>ng<br />

The Sick Child I is an investment quality work of art and rated BBB+, a ra=ng that captures the<br />

following risk factors:<br />

Ar5st Liquidity Risk: Low<br />

• Edvard Munch was a top Symbolist ar=st who enjoyed a long and prolific career. The<br />

market for his works is both broad and liquid.<br />

Ar5st Price Vola5lity Risk: Low<br />

• Edvard Munch’s art has a well-­‐established historical track record of auc=on prices.<br />

Mul=ple price points in the public domain allow accurate peer groups to be constructed.<br />

Furthermore, there is a strong record of posi=ve returns on repeat sales of several Munch<br />

works.<br />

Title Risk: Moderate-­‐High<br />

• Edvard Munch is not the most amrac=ve ar=st for thieves, but a number of recent<br />

notorious theTs do cast a shadow (see Sec=on 8). Two of these recent theTs involved<br />

lithographs. Nevertheless, it should be said that all four recent theTs took place in Oslo,<br />

and each =me they were carried out with surprising ease, which could be explained by an<br />

unusually low level of security in the city. The moderate-­‐high =tle risk ra=ng, the absence<br />

of a =tle guarantee, and the pre-­‐World War II date of crea=on are the primary factors that<br />

have led Skate’s to place The Sick Child I in the Tier-­‐4 category for investment grade art.<br />

Authen5city Risk: Low<br />

• A typical feature of Munch's graphic work is that he neither numbered his prints nor stated<br />

the size of the edi=on. Furthermore, he did not have the plates destroyed once the<br />

prin=ng was complete. On the contrary, he tried to preserve his stones and plates so that<br />

he could take further impressions at a later date. Consequently, in many cases many years<br />

may have passed between the date when Munch worked the plate and the =me the last<br />

print was pulled from it. This led to great varia=on in the quality of prints from the same<br />

plate. Though the most of the reprints were done in Munch's own life=me and largely<br />

under his control, there is s=ll a slight risk that a reprint could have been completed aTer<br />

his death. Given the fact that this transac=on is taking place at a first-­‐=er auc=on house<br />

that can provide proper authen=ca=on, we view the level of authen=city risk as low.<br />

Condi5on Risk: Low-­‐Moderate<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

• The Sick Child I is 114 years old and has not experienced considerable travel or numerous<br />

changes in ownership. Although Chris=e’s catalogue notes the excellent condi=on of the<br />

print, poten=al buyers may want to examine condi=on before comple=ng a transac=on.<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 4


4. Brief Biography of Edvard Munch<br />

Source:Tilvekstnummer: NF.WA 02488 Internnr: NBR9407:01241<br />

1863 Born on 12th December in Løten, Hedmark.<br />

1864 The family moves to Kristiania (Oslo).<br />

1868 Munch’s mother dies from tuberculosis.<br />

1877 Munch’s sister Sofie dies from tuberculosis, 15 years old.<br />

1880 Munch discontinues his engineering studies and decides to become a painter.<br />

1881 Student at The Royal Academy of Drawing in Kristiania (Oslo).<br />

1882 Rents a studio near Stortings plass. The painter Christian Krohg corrects his work.<br />

1884 Comes into contact with Hans Jæger and the Kristiania Bohemians.<br />

1885 Exhibits at the World Exhibition in Antwerp. Study trip to Paris.<br />

1886 Participates in the Autumn Exhibition with the painting The Sick Child, called<br />

Study. This arouses a storm of protests.<br />

1889 First solo exhibition in Kristiania. Spends the summer in Åsgårdstrand. Receives<br />

a State grant for artists. Travels to Paris in October – begins studying with Léon<br />

Bonnat. His father dies.<br />

1890 At St. Cloud outside Paris. Spends the summer in Åsgårdstrand and Kristiania.<br />

Receives a second State grant for artists. Travels to France in November.<br />

1891 Paris and Nice. Summer in Norway. Receives a third State grant for artists.<br />

Travels to Paris in the autumn. Makes sketches for The Frieze of Life.<br />

1892 Paints Despair which he later develops into the motif The Scream. Exhibits at<br />

Verein Berliner Künstler. The exhibition is closed after one week due to protests.<br />

1893 Berlin. Associates with August Strindberg, Holger Drachmann, Dagny Juel,<br />

Stanislaw Przybyszewski etc. The Frieze of Life begins to take shape. Paints The<br />

Scream and Madonna.<br />

1894 The first etchings and lithographs are printed in Berlin.<br />

1895 Berlin and Paris<br />

1896 Works with illustrations for Baudelaire’s Les Fleurs du Mal. Prints colour<br />

lithographs and his first woodcuts at Clot’s printing studio in Paris.<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 5


1898 Paris and Berlin. Meets Tulla Larsen in Kristiania.<br />

1902 Exhibits The Frieze of Life – 22 paintings, at the Berlin Secession. Introduced to<br />

Dr. Max Linde in Lübeck. Is wounded in the left hand during the break-up with<br />

Tulla Larsen in Åsgårdstrand.<br />

1903 Berlin, Paris and Lübeck. Becomes a member of the Société des <strong>Art</strong>istes<br />

Indépendants.<br />

1905 Successful exhibition in Prague. Resident at various clinics due to nerve problems<br />

and misuse of alcohol.<br />

1906 Introduced to the court at Weimar. Makes proposals for theatre decorations for<br />

Ibsen’s Ghosts and Hedda Gabler for Max Reinhardt’s Chamber Theatre<br />

production at the Deutschen Theater.<br />

1907 Berlin. Paints a frieze for the foyer of Max Reinhardt’s theatre. Summer and<br />

autumn at Warnemünde on Germany’s Baltic coast.<br />

1908 Winter in Berlin. Summer in Warnemünde. Has a nervous breakdown in<br />

Copenhagen and admits himself to Dr. Jacobson’s Clinic. Receives the Royal<br />

Order of St. Olav.<br />

1909 Returns home to Norway in May. Settles in Kragerø. Begins work on the proposal<br />

for the decoration of the University Hall in Kristiania.<br />

1912 Awarded his own exhibition space at the Sonderbund Exhibition in Cologne. His<br />

work is placed beside that of Cézanne, Gauguin and Van Gogh.<br />

1914 Berlin and Paris. Summer in Kragerø, Hvitsten and Jeløya. The University accepts<br />

Munch’s proposed project for the University Hall.<br />

1916 Buys Ekely – the property just outside Kristiania. The decoration of the<br />

University Hall is unveiled in September.<br />

1918-19 Publishes the document The Frieze of Life in connection with his exhibition at<br />

Blomqvist in Kristiania. Contracts Spanish influenza.<br />

1922 Commissioned to decorate the employees’ canteen of Freia Chocolate Factory in<br />

Kristiania.<br />

1928 Works on a proposal for the decoration of Oslo Town Hall.<br />

1929 Builds a new winter studio at Ekely.<br />

1930-31 Contracts an eye disease.<br />

1933 Receives the Grand Cross of the Order of St. Olav.<br />

1944 Dies peacefully at Ekely on 23rd January. In his will, he leaves all his remaining<br />

work to Oslo Kommune (The City of Oslo): c. 1 100 paintings, c. 18 000 prints, c.<br />

4 500 watercolours and drawings, 6 sculptures, 92 sketch books and numerous<br />

letters and other correspondence.<br />

Source: The Munch Museum<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 6


5. Past and Present Museum Exhibi>ons of Munch’s Works<br />

Europe<br />

• Munch Museum, Oslo, Norway<br />

• De Pont Founda=on for Contemporary <strong>Art</strong>,<br />

Netherlands<br />

• Na=onal Galleries of Scotland, Edinburgh, UK<br />

• Birmingham Museums & <strong>Art</strong> Gallery, UK<br />

• Courtauld Ins=tute of <strong>Art</strong>, London, UK<br />

• Tate Gallery, London, UK<br />

• Falmouth <strong>Art</strong> Gallery, England<br />

• Neue Pinakothek, Munich, Germany<br />

• Von der Heydt-­‐Museum, Wuppertal, Germany<br />

• Wallraf-­‐Richartz-­‐Museum, Cologne, Germany<br />

• Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam<br />

• Museum Boijmans Van Beuningen, Romerdam<br />

• Haugesund Museum of Fine <strong>Art</strong>, Norway<br />

• Kunsthaus Zurich<br />

• Kunstmuseum Basel, Switzerland<br />

• Österreichische Galerie Belvedere, Vienna, Austria<br />

• The Alber=na, Vienna, Austria<br />

• Thyssen-­‐Bornemisza Museum, Madrid<br />

North America<br />

• <strong>Art</strong> Ins=tute of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA<br />

• Museum of Modern <strong>Art</strong>, New York, NY, USA<br />

6. Galleries Currently Selling Munch’s Works<br />

Europe<br />

• Idbury Prints, Oxon, UK<br />

• Grev Wedels Plass Auksjoner, Oslo, Norway<br />

• Kaare Berntsen, Oslo, Norway<br />

• Villa Grisebach Auk=onen GmbH, Berlin, Germany<br />

• Galleri Faurschou, Copenhagen, Denmark<br />

• Detroit Ins=tute of <strong>Art</strong>s, Detroit, MI, USA<br />

• Na=onal Gallery of <strong>Art</strong>, Washington D.C., USA<br />

• Museum of Fine <strong>Art</strong>s, Boston, MA, USA<br />

• Museum of Fine <strong>Art</strong>s, Houston, TX, USA<br />

• Allen <strong>Art</strong> Museum at Oberlin College, OH, USA<br />

• Brooklyn Museum, New York, NY, USA<br />

• Cleveland Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, Cleveland, OH, USA<br />

• J. Paul Gemy Museum, Los Angeles, CA, USA<br />

• Fine <strong>Art</strong>s Museums of San Francisco, CA, USA<br />

• Harvard University <strong>Art</strong> Museums, Cambridge, MA,<br />

USA<br />

• Indianapolis Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, Indianapolis, IN, USA<br />

• Kimbell <strong>Art</strong> Museum, Fort Worth, TX, USA<br />

• McMullen Museum of <strong>Art</strong> at Boston College,<br />

Chestnut Hill, MA, USA<br />

• Minneapolis Ins=tute of <strong>Art</strong>s, Minneapolis, MN, USA<br />

• Princeton University <strong>Art</strong> Museum, Princeton, NJ, USA<br />

• San Diego Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, San Diego, CA<br />

• MacKenzie <strong>Art</strong> Gallery, Saskatchewan, Canada<br />

Asia-­‐Pacific<br />

• Tel Aviv Museum of <strong>Art</strong>, Tel Aviv, Israel<br />

• <strong>Art</strong> Gallery of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 7


7. Provenance / Catalogue Raisonné Reference<br />

From Chris8e’s catalogue for Sale 7839, Lot 122, London, United Kingdom, March<br />

31, 2010:<br />

From a Private German Collec5on<br />

Edvard Munch : the complete graphic<br />

works<br />

Gerd Woll, New York : H.N. Abrams ; Oslo :<br />

In Associa5on with Munch-­‐Museet, 2001.<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 8


8. Known TheTs of Munch’s Works<br />

Edvard Munch is a moderate-­‐high risk ar=st under Skate’s theT risk classifica=on.<br />

• Interpol lists as stolen the following work by Edvard Munch:<br />

• Other notable theTs<br />

Portrait Study -­‐<br />

reported stolen in<br />

Norway on August 20,<br />

1993<br />

On August 22, 2004, the BBC<br />

reported that a version of The<br />

Scream and Madonna by Edvard<br />

Munch were stolen from Oslo's<br />

Munch Museum. The artworks<br />

were recovered in August 2006,<br />

both sustained damage and<br />

underwent restoraWon. In May<br />

2009, those connected with the<br />

theZ were convicted and<br />

sentenced.<br />

On February 12, 1994 a version of The<br />

Scream was stolen in from the NaWonal<br />

Gallery in Oslo -­‐ It was recovered<br />

undamaged on May 7, 1994. In January<br />

1996, four men were convicted in<br />

connecWon with the theZ.<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 9


On November 13, 2009, The New<br />

York Times reported that a hand<br />

colored lithograph by Edvard Munch<br />

-­‐ History -­‐ was stolen from an art<br />

gallery in Oslo, Norway the previous<br />

day. The work has not been found.<br />

On November 18, 2009, police<br />

reported the theZ of Munch’s litograph<br />

Loesrivelsen II (The Separa5on II) from<br />

an Oslo gallery during its move in June.<br />

The Sick Child I is not currently listed on an Interpol or FBI stop list and was not listed as missing by <strong>Art</strong><br />

Loss Register.<br />

9. Known Forgeries of Munch’s Works<br />

Norwegian media have reported that several fake versions of works by the<br />

Norwegian Painter Edvard Munch have been offered on the global art market. Two<br />

of these have been discovered in Norway.<br />

The Munch Museum has confirmed the existence of even different works that have<br />

been on offer. The experts there say they have never before seen fakes that have<br />

been so painstakingly made, and they now warn against what they see as<br />

organized distribution of the fakes.<br />

The Museum has been contacted by a number of art dealers from around the<br />

world.<br />

Source: The Norway Post<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 10


10. <strong>Market</strong> for Munch’s Works<br />

Edvard Munch is a third-­‐=er investment quality ar=st with a well-­‐established historical track<br />

record of auc=on prices. Mul=ple price points in the public domain allow for accurate peer<br />

groups to be constructed.<br />

Munch’s most valuable works from the standpoint of auc=on prices were created in the last<br />

decade of 19th century and the first decade of 20th century.<br />

Top 10 Munch Sales<br />

Rank Title<br />

Year of<br />

Crea>on<br />

Date of Sale Auc>on Premium Price, USD<br />

1 Vampire 1894 Nov. 3, 2008 Sotheby’s 38,162,500<br />

2 Girls on a Bridge 1902 May 7, 2008 Sotheby’s 30,841,000<br />

3 Summer day 1904 Feb. 7, 2006 Sotheby’s 10,835,325<br />

4 View from Nordstand 1900 Feb. 5, 2007 Sotheby’s 7,528,145<br />

5 Haus in Aasgaardstrand 1905 Feb. 4, 2002 ChrisWe’s 7,315,822<br />

6 Self-­‐portrait (against two-­‐coloured background) 1904 Feb. 7, 2006 Sotheby’s 6,310,066<br />

7 SpringWme 1911 Feb. 5, 2007 Sotheby’s 6,206,590<br />

8 Badende 1897 Feb. 4, 2002 ChrisWe’s 4,883,782<br />

9 Sommernab, åsgårdstrand (Summer night, åsgårdstrand) 1902 May 3, 2005 Sotheby’s 4,496,000<br />

10 From Åsgårdstrand 1904 Jun. 25, 2008 Sotheby’s 4,046,405<br />

Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong> (auc5on results from Chris5e's and Sotheby’s)<br />

Repeat Sale of Munch’s Works*<br />

Title<br />

Year of<br />

Crea>on<br />

Date of Sale Auc>on Premium Price, USD ERR**, %<br />

Holding<br />

Period, Years<br />

Girls on a Bridge 1902 May 7, 2008 Sotheby’s 1,272,000 11.57% 11<br />

Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong><br />

*Based on presence in Top 10 Munch sales above<br />

**Annualized effec5ve rate of return<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 11


Our sampling of repeat sales (limited to the Top 10 works above) shows that Edvard Munch is a<br />

strong choice as an investment target.<br />

ATer an 11-­‐year holding period, Girls on a Bridge achieved an 11.57% effec=ve rate of return<br />

(ERR) on an annualized basis.<br />

Poten=al buyers should expect considerable price stability with Munch’s work and assuming that<br />

an irra=onal premium is avoided at the =me of purchase (see more in Sec=on 13 below), buyers<br />

should assume that The Sick Child I will at least maintain its value over the long term.<br />

11. <strong>Market</strong> for The Sick Child I<br />

Peer Group for The Sick Child I<br />

The sick child I<br />

The sick child I<br />

The sick child I<br />

Work Medium Year of<br />

crea>on<br />

The sick child I (Das Kranke Kind<br />

I)<br />

The sick child I (Das kranke Kind<br />

I)<br />

The sick child I<br />

The sick child I<br />

Color<br />

lithograph<br />

lithograph in<br />

black, grey,<br />

red and<br />

yellow<br />

lithograph in<br />

colors<br />

lithograph in<br />

black, grey,<br />

yellow and<br />

red<br />

Color<br />

lithograph<br />

Color<br />

lithograph<br />

Color<br />

lithograph<br />

Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong>, artnet<br />

N.B. Repeat sale indicated in blue<br />

Repeat Sales in Peer Group<br />

Title<br />

Year of<br />

Crea>on<br />

Auc>on Date of sale<br />

Es>mate (low)<br />

USD<br />

Es>mate (high)<br />

USD<br />

Premium Price,<br />

USD<br />

1896 ChrisWe's Oct. 30, 2007 200,000 300,000 668,200<br />

1896 Sotheby's Sep. 20, 2007 202,429 303,643 496,975<br />

1896 ChrisWe's May 3, 2005 20,000 30,000 62,400<br />

1896 Sotheby's Apr. 29, 2005 250,000 350,000 296,000<br />

1896 ChrisWe's Jun. 30, 2004 108,695 144,927 129,891<br />

1896 Sotheby's Nov. 8, 2002 150,000 250,000 207,500<br />

1896 ChrisWe's Nov. 5, 2002 18,000 22,000 45,410<br />

Date of Sale Auc>on Premium Price, USD ERR**, %<br />

Holding<br />

Period, Years<br />

The Sick Child I (Das Kranke Kind I) 1896 Sep. 20, 2007 Sotheby’s 496,975 14.02% 2.4<br />

Source: Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong><br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 12


The es=mate set by Chris=e’s for the March 31, 2010 sale of The Sick Child I is the highest ever<br />

for this peer group, which means that purchasing within this es=mate range slightly increases<br />

the likelihood of a nega=ve return on investment in the event of a resale. This risk remains<br />

minimal, however, as all of the sales in the above peer group have sold either comfortably in the<br />

middle of the es=mate range or well above the high es=mates assigned by the auc=on houses.<br />

A strong investment case also comes from the fact that all of the works in the peer group found<br />

buyers at auc=on (i.e., none of the works was “bought in” by the auc=on houses).<br />

Poten=al buyers should note the large price gap for works in The Sick Child I’s peer group, which<br />

can in part be explained by differences in the quality of the lithographs sold. In 1894, Munch<br />

produced his first works in this medium, so it was a completely new field for him. Chris=e’s sale<br />

catalogue notes the superior quality of the edi=on profiled in this report.<br />

Part of the reason for the large price gap is invariably =ed to the irra=onal premium paid at the<br />

=me of purchase. The average work in the peer group (including the repeat sale) sold for<br />

$272,339, which is on the low end of Chris=e’s es=mate range for this sale.<br />

Edvard Munch’s repeat sales show that his works can be a reasonable bet as an investment<br />

target. Although there has been only one repeat sale among Munch’s most valuable works (Girls<br />

on a Bridge), its effec=ve rate of return was a solid 11.57%. Its sale during the summer of 2008 -­‐<br />

just before the global financial crisis got underway and before the art market shiTed decidedly<br />

away from Contemporary art toward Impressionist and Modern art -­‐ confirms Munch’s strength<br />

and low level of price vola=lity. The resale in the sick child peer group occurred on September<br />

20, 2007 -­‐ i.e., at the very height of boom in the market for Contemporary art. This result only<br />

provides further confirma=on of Munch’s price stability.<br />

The Sick Child I is a lithograph and cannot be directly compared with a pain=ng such as Girls on a<br />

Bridge. However, both artworks are superior in quality and capture the most famous themes of<br />

Munch’s art. There is a high probability, therefore, that his iconic status might boost the<br />

irra=onal premium paid in the event of the work’s repeat sale at auc=on.<br />

12. Approach to <strong>Art</strong> Valua>on<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

Skate’s approach to art valua=on is based on the applica=on of Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> Asset Pricing Model<br />

(AAPM), which defines a valua=on range for an artwork based on the valua=on range of<br />

comparable artworks (i.e., a peer group). An adjustment is made using a provenance factor (i.e.,<br />

a discount rate that varies between 0 and 1 and captures all the risks per=nent to the art asset,<br />

including authen=city, =tle and transport restric=ons) and irra=onal premium reflec=ng personal<br />

affec=on of a poten=al buyer and the individual artwork.<br />

We have not es=mated an irra=onal premium that can be added to this artwork (i.e., an es=mate<br />

on how much a buyer may be willing to pay beyond the fair value), which can drama=cally affect<br />

an artwork’s final selling price. We believe, however, that the auc=on’s suggested pricing range<br />

for the artwork does imply that a buyer may be willing to pay an irra=onal premium amoun=ng<br />

to 20% more than the price levels of comparable artworks (i.e., the peer group discussed above).<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 13


13. Suggested Valua>on<br />

Based on the informa=on we have on the artwork offered for sale and the historical<br />

performance of Edvard Munch’s works at auc=on, for The Sick Child I Skate’s would recommend<br />

assigning a valua=on within the $250,000-­‐300,000 range, including buyer’s premium. Given<br />

previous prices for works in The Sick Child I’s peer group, a poten=al buyer could bid somewhat<br />

higher than Chris=e’s es=mate range before paying a significant irra=onal premium. If such is the<br />

goal of the purchaser, a posi=ve return on this investment is likely given a proper holding<br />

strategy.<br />

Prior to engaging in a transac=on with The Sick Child I, Skate’s would recommend that poten=al<br />

buyers thoroughly research all transac=on costs, including auc=on house commissions, UK taxes,<br />

as well as transport and insurance expenses. Poten=al buyers would also be advised to check on<br />

any poten=al export restric=ons involving this work.<br />

14. Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra>ng Scale<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

<strong>Skate's</strong> <strong>Art</strong>work Risk Ra=ng Scale consists of three major parts: Investment Quality (Grade),<br />

Specula=ve Quality (Grade) and Non-­‐investment Quality (Grade).<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 14


15. Peer Group Forma>on<br />

The forma=on of peer groups for use in Skate’s <strong>Art</strong>work Background Reports varies considerably<br />

depending on the ar=st and the size of the sample. In general, all peer groups are limited to a<br />

single ar=st and medium. The peer groups used by Skate’s contain works by only one ar=st for<br />

the reason that the inclusion of more than one name would represent a subjec=ve judgement<br />

that would inevitably lead to skewed pricing results in the peer group.<br />

Once an ini=al sampling of works is obtained, peer groups are narrowed by year of crea=on (or<br />

range of years), subject and, in some cases, size.<br />

Although in prac=ce there is no standard number of works included in the peer groups used by<br />

Skate’s, experience has shown that groups of 5-­‐15 works tend to be the most efficient when it<br />

comes to showing the market dynamics for a given work.<br />

16. Disclaimer<br />

Report 3-­‐EM-­‐001<br />

Client 0030<br />

March 30, 2010<br />

This report is not an appraisal, condi=on report or authen=city report. It has been prepared<br />

using publicly available sources of informa=on and without seeing or otherwise examining the<br />

actual artwork. Upon request, Skate’s is able to provide addi=onal research into provenance and<br />

other amributes, as well as to secure access to the paperwork necessary for comple=ng due<br />

diligence on =tle quality and preparing a more accurate valua=on range. In certain<br />

circumstances, Skate’s is able to arrange for a full authen=ca=on of the artwork.<br />

Skate’s <strong>Art</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Research</strong> is an independent art investment research provider that is majority<br />

owned by IndexAtlas Group (www.indexatlas.com).<br />

Neither Skate’s nor IndexAtlas Group are involved in or have otherwise vested interest in any art<br />

trade or art assets.<br />

<strong>Skate's</strong>, LLC believes that the informa=on in the report is reliable, but it does not guarantee, and<br />

has not independently verified, its accuracy. <strong>Skate's</strong>, its affiliates, and any third party providers,<br />

as well as its and their managers, directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (each a<br />

"<strong>Skate's</strong> Party") do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and =meliness of the informa=on<br />

in the report or any valua=on or opinion stated in the report (which informa=on, valua=ons and<br />

opinions are referred to as the "Content"). <strong>Skate's</strong> provides the Content on an “as is” basis. EACH<br />

SKATE'S PARTY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT<br />

NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR<br />

PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall any <strong>Skate's</strong> Party be liable to any party for any direct,<br />

indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, puni=ve, special or consequen=al damages, costs,<br />

expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limita=on, lost income or lost profits and<br />

opportunity costs) in connec=on with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of<br />

such damages.<br />

Skate’s, LLC, Copyright ©2010 15

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