Declaration of Frank C. Torchio for Settlement Purposes

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Case 2:07-cv-05295-MRP -MAN Document 987-4 Filed 10/11/10 Page 13 of 721 Page ID #:39201 18. Under the federal securities laws, the quantification of damages is relevant only if the trier of fact finds in favor of Plaintiffs regarding liability. Consequently, for the purposes of calculating damages, I assume that the Defendants are found to be liable for the alleged misconduct, misrepresentations and omissions. 19. Based on this assumed liability, I then proceed with the task of assessing and quantifying the appropriate damages caused by the Defendants’ alleged misconduct. In order to quantify damages suffered by the Class, I performed several financial analyses including an event study. An event study is a widely accepted financial economic tool to measure the effect on market prices from new information relevant to a company’s valuation. I apply my event study to assess materiality and loss causation, and also use it as a basis to quantify the amount of artificial inflation present in the market price of the Countrywide common stock, 7% Capital Securities, and 10(b) Bonds during the Class Period. A. Event Study Method 20. As a general proposition, modern finance theory holds that the market price of a common stock reflects the discounted value of expected future cash flows to the stockholder. Thus, new information that causes the market to significantly alter its expectation of future cash flows will cause a prompt repricing of the security to reflect the new expectations. 12 12 See Eugene F. Fama, “Efficient Capital Markets: II,” Journal of Finance 46, No. 5, 1575-1617 (December 1991); Robert Jennings and Laura Starks, “Information Content and the Speed of Stock Price Adjustments,” Journal of Accounting Research 23, No. 1, 336-350 (Spring 1985); James M. Patell and Mark A. Wolfson, “The Intraday Speed of Adjustment of Stock Prices to Earnings and Dividend Announcements,” Journal of Financial Economics 13, 243-252 (June 1984); and Catherine S. Woodruff and A. J. Senchack, Jr., “Intradaily Price-Volume Adjustments of NYSE Stocks to Unexpected Earnings,” Journal of Finance 43, 467-491 (June 1988). 9
Case 2:07-cv-05295-MRP -MAN Document 987-4 Filed 10/11/10 Page 14 of 721 Page ID #:39202 21. Since the publication in 1969 of a classic paper by Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll, 13 financial economists have used the event study methodology as a tool to measure the effect on market prices of new information relevant to a company’s equity valuation. New information may include, for example, earnings reports, dividend changes, stock-splits, regulatory rulings, acquisition bids, asset sales, company press releases and analyst reports. Because the event study methodology measures the market’s response to new information, it has been widely used to assess materiality, loss causation, and artificial inflation in securities fraud cases. 14 22. An event study is an empirical technique that measures the effect of new information on the market prices of a company’s publicly traded securities. This is done by comparing the day-to-day percentage change in the market price of a company’s security (known as a “return”) to the return predicted by a “market model.” The market model describes the normal relation between the return on the company’s security and the return on a market index, such as the S&P 500 Index or the Nasdaq Composite Index, and possibly an industry index. When significant new information about the company is disclosed to the market, the market model is used to determine the component of the security return that would have been expected based on the return on the overall market. The remaining component of the security return (that 13 Eugene F. Fama, Lawrence Fisher, Michael C. Jensen and Richard Roll, “The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information,” International Economic Review, Vol. 10, 1-21 (February 1969). 14 See Mark L. Mitchell and Jeffrey M. Netter, “The Role of Financial Economics in Securities Fraud Cases: Applications at the Securities and Exchange Commission,” The Business Lawyer 49, 545-90 (February 1994); and David I. Tabak and Frederick C. Dunbar, “Materiality and Magnitude: Event Studies in the Courtroom,” in Litigation Services Handbook: The Role of the Financial Expert, Third Edition, ed. by Roman L. Weil, Michael J. Wagner and Peter B. Frank, Wiley, 2001, chapter 19. See also In re Gaming Lottery Securities Litigation, No. 96 Civ. 5567 (RPP), 2000 WL 193125 (S.D.N.Y. Feb. 16, 2000). 10
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Declaration of Frank C. Torchio for Settlement Purposes

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