Declaration of Frank C. Torchio for Settlement Purposes

Recommendations

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Case 2:07-cv-05295-MRP -MAN Document 987-4 Filed 10/11/10 Page 69 of 721 Page ID #:39257 156. Countrywide’s stock price declined 7.6% to close at $19.81 per share on August 20, 2007 and the excess return of negative 5.7% was statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. The reported volume was 90.6 million shares, which was significantly greater than the average daily volume of 11.3 million shares. 157. I attribute Countrywide’s excess return of negative 5.7% to the analyst downgrade and related news which corresponds to the foreseeable economic effects of the alleged fraud. Thus, I treat August 20, 2007 as a corrective disclosure day, and I include the excess price change on this day when calculating investor losses. G. August 21, 2007 158. On Tuesday, August 21, 2007, The Wall Street Journal reported on speculation by some investors that Berkshire Hathaway could be a buyer of parts of Countrywide. 133 The story further reported that Countrywide’s debt-servicing business and its portfolio of high- quality mortgages and mortgage-backed securities could be attractive to Berkshire. 134 This news story was picked up and widely disseminated by other media sources. 159. Also, on August 21, 2007, before the market opened for trading, the overall U.S. stock market was up on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve might cut its benchmark customers to know that the highly publicized issues related to the mortgage market do not impact the safety of FDIC insured deposits at Countrywide Bank.” See “Statement by Countrywide Bank on Its Depository Franchise,” PR Newswire, August 17, 2007, 3:40 pm. 133 “After the Tumult, Is It Buffett Time? --- Berkshire Chief Finds His Popularity Grows as More Loans Falter,” The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2007. 134 “After the Tumult, Is It Buffett Time? --- Berkshire Chief Finds His Popularity Grows as More Loans Falter,” The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2007. 65
Case 2:07-cv-05295-MRP -MAN Document 987-4 Filed 10/11/10 Page 70 of 721 Page ID #:39258 interest rate. 135 Countrywide’s stock price increased in pre-market trading. 136 Another piece of news that was considered positive for the mortgage lenders was Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co.’s deal to transfer $1 billion in mortgage loans to an unnamed investor. 137 135 “STOCK NEWS US -- S&P, Nasdaq up on rate-cut speculation; Dow dips,” Reuters News, August 21, 2007, 6:34 am. 2007, 7:27 am. 160. On August 21, 2007, Countrywide’s stock price increased 10.0% from the prior day close of $19.81 to close at $21.79 per share. The excess return of 8.4% was statistically significant at the 99% confidence level. The reported volume was 68.6 million shares, which was significantly greater than the average daily volume of 11.3 million shares. 161. I attribute Countrywide’s positive excess return of 8.4% to news that Warren Buffett was a potential buyer of Countrywide assets. Given the recent negative information disseminated to the market about the quality of Countrywide’s assets, news that this legendary value-investor believed these assets were under-valued would reasonably induce many investors to re-value Countrywide’s assets upward, which would cause the market value of its equity to increase even more due to leverage. Accurate disclosures about Warren Buffett’s investment moves typically result in an immediate, significant re-valuation of the subject assets – upward when he is buying and downward when he is selling. As such, I include August 21, 2007 as a corrective disclosure and I include Countrywide’s positive excess price change on this day in my calculation of investor losses. 136 “Before the Bell - Countrywide Financial shares climb,” Reuters News, August 21, 137 “Shares of mortgage lenders rise on prospects for rate cut, Countrywide buyout,” Associated Press Newswires, August 21, 2007, 2:45 pm. 66
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Date Price Return Appendix A Select
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Declaration of Frank C. Torchio for Settlement Purposes

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