The Top 100 NGOs 2013. - Akshaya Patra

interests outside Belarus. As a
result, the EU sanctions have hardly
harmed them.
The EU could, however, have a
significant impact on other European-
Belarus businesses. Moshensky,
Shakutin and Topuzidis all have
EU-based holdings, as do many other
individuals who prefer to invest in
Belarus from a safe external vantage
point – a practice that is spreading
within the domestic community as it
helps to substantially lower dependence
on Lukashenko. Consequently, through
an ironic political twist, reinforcing
sanctions on Belarusian businesses
mainly hurts those – such as the
promising young Aleksei Zhukov
heading the Alyuteh Company –
who are trying to escape the reaches
of the President’s control. The
resultant impact when it comes to
foreign investor confidence means
that developing interests in the EU
has become increasingly difficult
for such enterprises. Potential local
partners in external markets have
no guarantee that, sooner or later,
these good willed and more or less
independent figures will not be
hit adversely by further
European restrictions.
At the same time, alternative policies
are difficult to identify. Betting on
strengthening the political opposition
and democratic breakthroughs is not
a realistic option from a European
perspective. Liberal and opposition
movements are deeply divided between
several leaders, none of whom stand out
as obvious challengers to Lukashenko.
Too ideological and radicalized, most
also act, in part, from outside the
country – predominantly, from Poland.
This split geographical base is likely
to lead to a kind of muted competition
between externally based groups –
especially media actors – and domestic
activists. Because the latter take most
of the risks in a climate of strong
repression, they typically also claim
the most legitimacy. Meanwhile, the
external groups, with greater control
over communications, try to exert some
influence by favoring one faction over
another. Moreover, when the wives or
sisters of former presidential candidates
speak as if they were representing a
particular group, further confusion is
added to an already blurred picture.
FeaTure
So far, none of these movements has
been able to propose a clear, effective
and realistic strategy. Arguably, it
is because it would be futile to call
for regime change in the current
Belarusian context. As long as Russia
agrees to subsidize its small neighbor,
Lukashenko and his entourage will be
able to resist any European pressure or
public demonstrations of discontent.
Minsk currently receives several billion
dollars from Moscow each year to
buy social peace, as well as to provide
minimal economic stability.
The President is therefore under no
pressure to sit at a negotiating table
‘The groups
aligned against
Lukashenko
cannot count
their forces, assess
their audience
or set achievable
targets, so instead
are condemned to
agitate in almost
empty spaces.’
with what he and others would suggest
are barely legitimate opposition
leaders. Wishful thinking and lobbying
for strengthened actions based on
promoting European values can lead
nowhere, at least in the immediate
future. Even more so as the EU has
never previously shown an inclination to
enforce such a moral policy elsewhere.
Although the new European Dialogue
for Modernization, launched last April,
includes a number of very pragmatic
goals, it has not, to date, proven to be
well managed or coordinated. Perhaps
inevitably, it has also failed to deliver
any firm results.
Oddly, the demands of the Belarusian
opposition do not match economic
and political reality. This apparent
incongruity constitutes one of
Lukashenko’s major achievements.
Clearly, deprived of any public platform
The gloBal Journal + January & FeBruary 2013
108
to convey their message – whether
via the media, or in an open and free
political or parliamentary context –
the opposition cannot be held totally
responsible for its failure to appear
relevant, credible and legitimate.
Without the means to organize
and communicate, any opposition
movement would find it difficult to
unify potential members and exercise
a political role. The groups aligned
against Lukashenko cannot count
their forces, assess their audience or
set achievable targets, so instead are
condemned to agitate in almost empty
spaces. Recent parliamentary electoral
campaigns in Belarus illustrate this
point. The major opposition groups –
dismissed as “nobodies” by
Lukashenko – boycotted last
September’s elections to protest the
detention of political prisoners and
alleged opportunities for electoral fraud.
Focused on the boycott issue, those
opposition parties that did participate
said nothing about economic issues,
and hardly mentioned the traumatic
currency crisis of 2011, much less
propose any solutions. Unless Russia
performs a U-turn, provoking a serious
financial crash in Belarus, Lukashenko
has ensured his political position for the
next three years, while the opposition
remains frozen. Well-informed
independent experts in Minsk confirm
that, “there is nothing more to do now
than to wait for the next presidential
election in 2015.”
In Sabali, meanwhile, people tend to
think that even if there were no more
elections, life would not change. With
a pension of around $200 dollars per
month, the elderly can meet all their
basic needs and live quite well.
Well, that is, if one discounts traveling
beyond the village or eating out at
nearby restaurants. Ivan, who supervises
Sabali’s first small ethno-museum
set up by his son in an old house
nearby, was in no hurry to vote. When
the ballot box arrived he inserted his
ballot paper in front of the two
mandated officials, whom he knew very
well. Voting itself meant nothing. He
and his wife will be happy either way,
watching their son help local boy made
good Chizh to accomplish his dream
of turning Sabali into a large touristcultural-ethnographic
complex. If
nothing else, their house will
be repainted.
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HUMANITARIAN ACTION
Advanced Training for Professionals
in Geneva
Master’s programme and short specialised courses
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Mathare, Kenya © Julius Mwelu