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Epidemiology and Marketing There is some precedent for using epidemiological techniques in the marketing area. Indeed, the Bass Model (1969) draws on roots in epidemiology in describing the manner in which a potential market adopts a new product, idea, concept over successive time periods (Mahajan and Muller 1979). However, the Bass model uses empirically generalised data to define patterns of adoption. In this study, the data is yet to be generated. In order to investigate patterns of consumption, a study needs to be conducted over a long period. Studies that use the same respondents over extended time-lines are known as longitudinal studies (Guest 1944, 1955, 1964; Alanko 1984; Kelsey, Thompson and Evans 1986; Hennekens and Buring 1987; Giovannucci, Colditz, Stampfer, Rimm, Litin, Sampson and Willett 1991; Shatzberg 1995; Neuman 1997; Godden 1999). The epidemiological methods of investigating respondents’ behaviours over extended periods are a prospective cohort study, case-control study and retrospective cohort study. The details of each of these methods are outlined below. A prospective cohort study [usually referred to as a cohort study] is where subjects are classified based on their exposure to a particular factor that is hypothesised to predetermine a course of action. The exposed and unexposed groups are then monitored over time for the development or otherwise of the course of action being investigated (Hennekens and Buring 1987; Kahn and Sepos 1989). Retrospective studies are where an outcome is observed in a number of respondents. The respondents are questioned on their exposure or otherwise to an [hypothesised] influencing factor. Additionally, a comparable group of respondents who do not exhibit the outcome should also be queried as to any exposure to the influencing factor in an attempt to falsify a cause [or vice-versa] (Hennekens and Buring 1987; Kahn and Sepos 1989). “In a retrospective cohort study the investigator identifies a cohort of individuals based on their characteristics in the past and then reconstructs their subsequent experience up to some defined point in the more recent past or up to the present time” (Kelsey et al. 1986) Retrospective cohort studies have advantages over prospective studies because cohort studies are conducted over long periods, and there is a drop in respondent numbers over time. Consequently, any reduction in respondent numbers reduces the generalisability of the results. Secondly, retrospective cohort studies can be completed in much more timely fashion and are considerably less expensive. Additionally, retrospective studies may be most applicable when extended timelines are required to determine effects (Kelsey et al. 1986). ‘Exposure’ data may exist from previous periods, and in this instance, they may be used to analyse the success of a retrospective study (Kahn and Sepos 1989). A problem of determining exposure to drivers of consumption in effect on an individual is that when using a retrospective study, the ability to apportion differing levels of exposure [to a driver of consumption] to individuals is not possible. ANZMAC 2003 Conference Proceedings Adelaide 1-3 December 2003 689
Researching Considerations In order to investigate patterns of an individual’s consumption, the same individual must provide information on their consumption over time. As such, any study that requires the respondent to provide information on more than one occasion risks the inattendance of the respondent for subsequent interviews (Kelsey et al. 1986; Hennekens and Buring 1987; Kahn and Sepos 1989). Adding to the difficulty is that early authors on the reporting of alcohol consumption found that there is inherent difficulty in obtaining reliable data (Summers 1970; Miller, Crawford and Taylor 1979; Sobell, Cellucci, Nirenberg and Sobell 1982). These authors have all researched problem alcohol consumption, but the generalisability of these findings to the population as a whole, is unlikely. Contrasting these findings, more modern research has revealed that the consumer can more accurately recall their alcohol consumption habits, as long as s/he is able to connect the period of consumption to a defined period in their lives (Sobell, Sobell, Leo and Cancilla 1988; Giovannucci et al. 1991). As such, this study will focus on making the connection in the respondent’s mind, between each period of the respondent’s life and the type of alcohol consumed by the respondent in that period. Marketing Examples of Prospective studies The concept of using the same individual to respond in subsequent periods is not new in marketing. Guest conducted a longitudinal study on the attitudinal and long-term behavioural loyalty of consumers to brands. His conclusion is that over a period of approximately ten years, only about 25% of consumers preferring a brand in year 0 continue to prefer that brand in year 10 (Guest 1944, 1955, 1964). Guest’s study was extended across durable, fast-moving-consumer-goods (FMCG) and subscription markets, and realised similar results for each category. However, Guest also experienced significant problems in contacting the same respondents over successive studies. Consequently, the genralisability of findings in prospective studies is always an area of concern for the researcher. Shatzberg and the INRA/ONIVINS describes the way that the French have attempted to combat the issue of ‘drop-out’ in subsequent periods (Shatzberg 1995; Inra and Onivins 2001). The INRA/ONIVINS conduct a survey of wine consumption habits of a cross-section of respondents in France every five years. The survey instrument uses quotas to determine when a representative sample of the French demographic and geographic constituency is achieved. Therefore, each successive period illustrates a summary of the alcohol consumption patterns of the population of France. However, a problem in this methodology is still evident in that an assertion of changes in consumption is still questionable as different respondents are interviewed for each study. Conceptual Papers / Marketing Theory Track 690
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