improving the potential to forecast demand for wine by ... - ANZMAC

IMPROVING THE POTENTIAL TO FORECAST DEMAND FOR WINE BY 

TESTING CONSUMERS SELF-REPORTING ON WINE CONSUMPTION 

THROUGH A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY 

Damien Wilson 

University of South Australia 

Track: Conceptual papers/ marketing theory 

Key words: Forecasting, Retrospective studies 

Abstract 

Demand forecasting can be used by the wine industry to improve its capacity to cater 

to the needs of consumers. Years of behavioural data are required to implement the 

process of demand forecasting as patterns of behaviour are extrapolated to a period in 

the future. However, the wine consumption patterns of Australians are relatively 

unknown. With the exception of data from a study in 1994/5 and 1998, there is little 

evidence that can confirm the patterns of wine consumption by individuals. Therefore 

the wine consumption patterns of Australian consumers must be empirically 

generalised before forecasting can occur. 

Introduction 

The past ten years have witnessed unprecedented growth in demand for Australian 

wine, both locally and in export markets. This has driven a growth in production 

capacity in an effort to satisfy demand growth. It is only now, after decades of 

capacity growth that the Australian wine industry is experiencing an oversupply of 

grapes to the market. This situation is manifest in the statistics showing Australia 

produces almost three times the volume of wine consumed by its population (Awbc 

2002). Further, many export markets are also reaching saturation point, and domestic 

consumption is relatively static (Scott 2003). 

Producers have been planting grapevines in earnest, to try and keep up with demand 

over the past ten years. However, the substantial lag-phase from growth to market 

release has resulted in current demand being satisfied, but pending supply excesses in 

coming years. This serves as a convincing argument that in future, attention should 

be directed to methods that can aid with more accurate forecasting of wine demand. 

To calculate potential demand, extended data series must be analysed to enable 

forecasting. Typically, long-range forecasts are generated through econometric 

methods, or extrapolation of historical patterns to some period in the future 

(Armstrong 1999). Patterns of consumer behaviour can only be analysed if there are 

sufficient number of periods of data to enable an analysis of the trends in data to be 

applied to some period in the future. A recent review of 8 quantitative forecasting 

models further reinforced the intuition that the longer the calibration period the closer 

the fit of the model – any of the models – to observed data (Hardie, Fader and 

Wisniewski 1998). In fast moving consumer good (FMCG) markets this is important; 

in the wine industry, we contend that obtaining longitudinal data is critical. 

Conceptual Papers / Marketing Theory Track 686

Unfortunately, the patterns of wine consumption are relatively unknown as there is 

little empirical evidence of the habits of wine consumers. There are two studies on 

the population’s wine consumption habits, from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 

(ABS) in 1994/5 and 1998, but in isolation, these cross-sectional studies are of little 

use in forecasting demand. However, an argument can be made that if consumers’ 

historical patterns of wine consumption can be confirmed with data from these two 

samples, empirical evidence on wine consumption could be generated retrospectively. 

Consequently, this study proposes the use of a retrospective survey method as a way 

of investigating consumers’ wine consumption habits over their lives. 

Evidence of retrospective studies in marketing is difficult to find. However, the 

process of a retrospective cohort study is well established in the field of 

epidemiology. This paper suggests the historical consumption patterns of Australians 

are investigated using the established methodology for a retrospective cohort study. 

The findings can be tested against the data provided by the ABS in 1994/5 and 1998 

for validity of the study. 

This study contributes to the development of a new methodology for validating the 

behaviours of consumers in past periods. Additionally, if consumers can be shown to 

recall their wine consumption patterns, their patterns of consumption can be 

evaluated, and forecasting of future consumption can be made with improved 

accuracy. 

The first section of this paper explains the background to demand forecasting and the 

benefits of the process for industry. The second section highlights the information 

required for applying the principles of demand forecasting. The third section outlines 

the goal of generating empirical data on historical wine consumption. The next 

section details the methodology used in epidemiology for surveying respondents on 

their retrospective behaviours, and how it can be applied to this study. The final 

section summarises the concept of this paper before suggesting further directions for 

this study. 

Demand Forecasting 

Demand forecasting is the process of using historical data on consumption in order to 

anticipate future demand for a product or service (Smith, Herbig, Milewicz and 

Golden 1996; Armstrong 1999). Industries budget for potential demand as a way to 

allocate resources to a firm’s operations. However, to enable a reliable forecast of 

demand, the approximate number of consumers and their probability of consumption 

need to be known by the forecaster (Massy 1969). The problem in the wine industry 

in Australia is that neither of that information is available as there is little data on the 

consumption habits of the population. 

Applications to the Wine Industry 

To forecast demand in the wine industry, there are three main options: 1. Assume 

that production and consumption occur at the same time; 2. Use sales data, assuming 

that sales and consumption occur concurrently; or 3. Use actual consumption data. 

ANZMAC 2003 Conference Proceedings Adelaide 1-3 December 2003 687

For the first option, the production data from year to year is available from the ABS 

as ‘apparent [wine] consumption’ data (Abs 2003). The ABS has recorded apparent 

wine consumption habits of Australians since the early 1940s (Abs 2003). However, 

problems arise in that inventories in the distribution channel are not considered, nor is 

the potential that wine may be matured for up to five years after harvest before release 

to the market (Halliday and Johnson 1994). 

The second option of using sales data seems more appropriate. However, sales data is 

difficult to capture from all firms selling wine in the market. Further, the 

demographic characteristics of consumers are not provided. Additionally, the 

consumer’s propensity to share wine with another, or to offer the wine as a gift is not 

a consideration with this method. Authors have laid claims to knowledge on the 

patterns of wine consumption, but these figures have been based on sales data, not 

actual consumption. There is no doubt that wine sales have a close relationship with 

wine consumption. However, the relationship between sales and consumption is not 

clearly defined. 

This leaves the use of actual consumption data as the only viable option. The written 

history of wine consumption in Australia asserts these details: Up to the 1960s, wine 

consumption is believed to have been dominated by fortified wine consumption 

(Johnson 1971; Beeston 1994). The 1970s witnessed a growth in white wine 

consumption, and this pattern is believed to have held through the 1980s and into the 

early 1990s (Gluckman 1986; Beeston 1994; Cartiere 1997). The mid-90s saw the 

pattern change to dominance in red wine production (Awbc 2002), and the existence 

of consumption data shows red wine becoming the preferred style of Australians 

(Stanford 2000). These patterns seem quite clear. However, with the exception of 

Stanford’s paper, all authors use their observations and knowledge of the wine 

industry without supporting these assertions with empirical evidence. Consequently, 

the actual patterns of wine consumption are relatively unknown. 

Therefore, the problem associated with using actual wine consumption data is that 

very little of it exists. Further complicating the problem is that years of detailed 

consumption data have to be used in order to make forecasts of potential demand. 

However, there is some documented history of wine consumption in Australia from 

the ABS. In late-1994 and early 1995 the ABS surveyed consumers on their actual 

alcohol consumption for the first time, repeating the study in 1998. 


Epidemiology and Marketing 

There is some precedent for using epidemiological techniques in the marketing area. 

Indeed, the Bass Model (1969) draws on roots in epidemiology in describing the 

manner in which a potential market adopts a new product, idea, concept over 

successive time periods (Mahajan and Muller 1979). However, the Bass model uses 

empirically generalised data to define patterns of adoption. In this study, the data is 

yet to be generated. 

In order to investigate patterns of consumption, a study needs to be conducted over a 

long period. Studies that use the same respondents over extended time-lines are 

known as longitudinal studies (Guest 1944, 1955, 1964; Alanko 1984; Kelsey, 

Thompson and Evans 1986; Hennekens and Buring 1987; Giovannucci, Colditz, 

Stampfer, Rimm, Litin, Sampson and Willett 1991; Shatzberg 1995; Neuman 1997; 

Godden 1999). The epidemiological methods of investigating respondents’ 

behaviours over extended periods are a prospective cohort study, case-control study 

and retrospective cohort study. The details of each of these methods are outlined 

below. 

A prospective cohort study [usually referred to as a cohort study] is where subjects 

are classified based on their exposure to a particular factor that is hypothesised to 

predetermine a course of action. The exposed and unexposed groups are then 

monitored over time for the development or otherwise of the course of action being 

investigated (Hennekens and Buring 1987; Kahn and Sepos 1989). 

Retrospective studies are where an outcome is observed in a number of respondents. 

The respondents are questioned on their exposure or otherwise to an [hypothesised] 

influencing factor. Additionally, a comparable group of respondents who do not 

exhibit the outcome should also be queried as to any exposure to the influencing 

factor in an attempt to falsify a cause [or vice-versa] (Hennekens and Buring 1987; 

Kahn and Sepos 1989). 

“In a retrospective cohort study the investigator identifies a cohort of individuals based on their 

characteristics in the past and then reconstructs their subsequent experience up to some defined point in 

the more recent past or up to the present time” (Kelsey et al. 1986) 

Retrospective cohort studies have advantages over prospective studies because cohort 

studies are conducted over long periods, and there is a drop in respondent numbers 

over time. Consequently, any reduction in respondent numbers reduces the 

generalisability of the results. Secondly, retrospective cohort studies can be 

completed in much more timely fashion and are considerably less expensive. 

Additionally, retrospective studies may be most applicable when extended timelines 

are required to determine effects (Kelsey et al. 1986). 

‘Exposure’ data may exist from previous periods, and in this instance, they may be 

used to analyse the success of a retrospective study (Kahn and Sepos 1989). A 

problem of determining exposure to drivers of consumption in effect on an individual 

is that when using a retrospective study, the ability to apportion differing levels of 

exposure [to a driver of consumption] to individuals is not possible. 


Researching Considerations 

In order to investigate patterns of an individual’s consumption, the same individual 

must provide information on their consumption over time. As such, any study that 

requires the respondent to provide information on more than one occasion risks the 

inattendance of the respondent for subsequent interviews (Kelsey et al. 1986; 

Hennekens and Buring 1987; Kahn and Sepos 1989). Adding to the difficulty is that 

early authors on the reporting of alcohol consumption found that there is inherent 

difficulty in obtaining reliable data (Summers 1970; Miller, Crawford and Taylor 

1979; Sobell, Cellucci, Nirenberg and Sobell 1982). These authors have all 

researched problem alcohol consumption, but the generalisability of these findings to 

the population as a whole, is unlikely. 

Contrasting these findings, more modern research has revealed that the consumer can 

more accurately recall their alcohol consumption habits, as long as s/he is able to 

connect the period of consumption to a defined period in their lives (Sobell, Sobell, 

Leo and Cancilla 1988; Giovannucci et al. 1991). As such, this study will focus on 

making the connection in the respondent’s mind, between each period of the 

respondent’s life and the type of alcohol consumed by the respondent in that period. 

Marketing Examples of Prospective studies 

The concept of using the same individual to respond in subsequent periods is not new 

in marketing. Guest conducted a longitudinal study on the attitudinal and long-term 

behavioural loyalty of consumers to brands. His conclusion is that over a period of 

approximately ten years, only about 25% of consumers preferring a brand in year 0 

continue to prefer that brand in year 10 (Guest 1944, 1955, 1964). Guest’s study was 

extended across durable, fast-moving-consumer-goods (FMCG) and subscription 

markets, and realised similar results for each category. However, Guest also 

experienced significant problems in contacting the same respondents over successive 

studies. Consequently, the genralisability of findings in prospective studies is always 

an area of concern for the researcher. 

Shatzberg and the INRA/ONIVINS describes the way that the French have attempted 

to combat the issue of ‘drop-out’ in subsequent periods (Shatzberg 1995; Inra and 

Onivins 2001). The INRA/ONIVINS conduct a survey of wine consumption habits of 

a cross-section of respondents in France every five years. The survey instrument uses 

quotas to determine when a representative sample of the French demographic and 

geographic constituency is achieved. Therefore, each successive period illustrates a 

summary of the alcohol consumption patterns of the population of France. However, 

a problem in this methodology is still evident in that an assertion of changes in 

consumption is still questionable as different respondents are interviewed for each 

study. 


Testing for validity 

This study will compare alcohol consumption of all types because the data exists for 

all alcohol consumption in 1994/5 and the 1998 study of alcohol consumption of the 

Australian population, conducted by the ABS. Consequently, a higher level of 

validity will be possible as beer, spirits and other alcohols can be used to add validity 

to the data on wine consumption. 

The results from this study will compare each respondent’s wine consumption habits 

in 1994/5 and 1998. These periods represent the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ 

(ABS) few studies into the wine consumption habits of the Australian population. By 

comparing the respondents’ reported types of alcohol consumed over these periods 

with the data provided by the ABS on alcohol consumption patterns, a level of 

validity can be attributed to the consumer’s capacity to recall their alcohol 

consumption patterns. 

Generating Empirical Data on Wine Consumption 

The difficulty for investigating previous alcohol consumption habits is in accurately 

obtaining the data from consumers. Historically, it was believed that earlier 

consumption habits could not be researched because of a consumer’s inability to 

accurately record their type or level of consumption in prior periods. (Parfitt 1967). 

However, Parfitt also found that respondents were able to recall their behaviour more 

reliably when the behaviour was a regular event. 

This is a problem for researching retrospectively, but the authors below have shown 

that consumers cannot only recall their alcohol consumption historically, if the 

method of surveying is appropriate for the study, there is the potential to record 

accurate data. 

Reporting Wine Consumption 

Early authors on reporting alcohol consumption purport that a respondent’s answers 

lack reliability. However, studies by Sobell, Hilton, Giovannucci and others have 

indicated that the consumer can recall their alcohol consumption from previous 

periods with a high degree of accuracy (Sobell et al. 1988; Hilton 1989; Giovannucci 

et al. 1991). These studies utilised different methods of surveying a respondent’s 

recall, and over varying durations of time, with similar results. 

Sobell and others found that consumers can recall their alcohol consumption over 

specific periods of time, when the consumer is prompted to recall their consumption 

over subsequent days of the week, from the start of the study. This method is referred 

to as the ‘Timeline’ method, and is reliable when the consumer is given time to recall 

their alcohol consumption from day-to-day over the life of the study (Sobell et al. 

1988). 

Hilton also found that a consumer’s prompted recall method and diary recording can 

both be effective ways of investigating a consumer’s alcohol consumption patterns 

(Hilton 1989). Hilton highlighted a number of researchers who have had varying 


levels of success with both methods, and suggested that the recall method can be 

successful if the respondent is not asked to recall specific characteristics about unique 

events in their past. 

The study conducted by Giovannucci and others, shows that the consumer’s ability to 

recall alcohol consumption in a period four years earlier, can be only marginally less 

accurate (R 2 value between 0.8 and 0.9, depending on the gender and time) than their 

ability to recall consumption from the previous week (Giovannucci et al. 1991). This 

study measured the respondents’ serum levels in the days following their alcohol 

consumption and interviewed the same respondents four years after the first study. 

The findings are promising, but the researchers did not control for whether the 

respondents had changed their consumption patterns from the earlier period. 

Further, Rasmussen and Lockshin’s findings that consumers select wine by the grape 

variety is significant for this study. As consumers expect to purchase by the grape 

variety of their preference, Parfitt’s findings ‘that regular purchases are most likely to 

be recalled accurately’ support the aims of this study. Consequently, as long as data 

on a respondent’s alcohol consumption is restricted to type (or variety) and style of 

alcohol consumed, there is reason to suggest that retrospective consumption habits 

can be illustrated for the potential benefit of demand forecasting. 

Methodology 

Consumers will be asked to indicate their wine consumption habits over numerous 

periods of their lives. Consumers will be interviewed to investigate their consumption 

of alcohol in 1994/5 and 1998, by determining when they first drank wine, what style 

they drank and asking about when these patterns changed. For those who have 

changed their consumption habits, they will be asked to indicate at what point in their 

lives they changed their consumption habits. For those consumers who have not 

changed their consumption habits, they will be asked when they began to consume 

alcohol and what type(s) of alcohol they consume. 

The results from this panel of consumers will be compared to the findings from the 

ABS studies in 1994/5 and 1998 by using a chi-squared test of difference, or an 

analysis of the variance (ANOVA) between the study’s findings and the outcome 

from the ABS’ study, whichever one is appropriate for the data provided. 

The field of Epidemiology often has to undertake studies over a long period of time to 

investigate causes of change in the health of an individual. Primarily, the methods 

used are Cohort, Case-control and retrospective cohort studies. These methods are 

used when changes are required to be illustrated over time. A retrospective cohort 

study is used to investigate historical changes in individual’s behaviours, but is not 

extended for any period further than the present. This methodology is therefore ideal 

for surveying historical wine consumption patterns. 


Expectations 

Epidemiology literature suggests that consumers can recall their consumption habits, 

as long as the questions posed are not too specific or technical. Requesting 

information on brands consumed would be questionable, but surveying respondents 

on the type of wine consumed should provide the requisite information sought in this 

study. However, there is a common perception in marketing that consumers cannot 

accurately recall their consumption patterns of the past (Romaniuk and Robertson 

1999; Sharp 2002). This study will help to determine whether retrospective studies 

have validity for recalling historical consumption patterns by testing the findings of 

this study with empirical data on a representative sample of the population. 

Conclusions 

Consequently, a study that investigates consumers’ recollections of their historical 

alcohol consumption can be tested against the findings of the studies conducted by the 

ABS. If it is found that the consumer has the capacity to recall their consumption 

patterns in earlier periods, marketers have the potential to conduct retrospective 

studies to obtain data on changes in consumption quickly, rather than waiting years 

through longitudinal or cross-sectional studies to monitor behaviour. 

For Further Research 

There is a need for further investigation in this area of research, as the patterns of 

wine consumption habits have not been investigated in a longitudinal study using the 

same respondents. This study explores the potential benefits to the wine industry by 

identifying whether consumers can recall their alcohol consumption habits 

retrospectively. If consumers can be found to recall their alcohol consumption over 

time, there is the potential to establish empirical data on the patterns of alcohol 

consumption over respondents’ lives. 

In the first instance this may be found to apply to beverage types, but may also prove 

valid for varietal choice. This would deliver value to the many growers who agonise 

over “which variety should I plant now, for production seven years away?” 

Academics 

The methodology used in this study will be the pioneering of the use of a 

retrospective cohort study on alcohol consumption. The reporting of alcohol 

consumption in much of the early literature suggests that the consumer’s recall is 

unreliable, or that s/he deliberately falsifies their alcohol intake (Cahalan and Cisin 

1967; Summers 1970; Miller et al. 1979; Poikolainen and Kärkkäinen 1983). 

However, these authors obtained their respondents in another country or a hospital 

ward of rehabilitating alcoholics. These differences reduce the generalisability to the 

Australian population. 

There is support for the consumer’s ability to recall their alcohol consumption from 

previous periods, in both short (Sobell et al. 1988) and long- term (Giovannucci et al. 

1991) history. Therefore, with the support of previous researchers, it is important to 


generate some empirical data on the alcohol consumption patterns of Australian 

consumers. 

Practitioners 

This investigation highlights the potential for building a strategic industry advantage 

by identifying methods to use to record historical consumption. Subsequently, 

forecasting long-term production goals can be effected as a way to meet consumer 

demands. Additionally, this information would aid the wine industry’s capacity to 

develop wine types desired by consumers in line with empirical patterns of wine 

consumption. 


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