improving the potential to forecast demand for wine by ... - ANZMAC

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Testing for validity This study will compare alcohol consumption of all types because the data exists for all alcohol consumption in 1994/5 and the 1998 study of alcohol consumption of the Australian population, conducted by the ABS. Consequently, a higher level of validity will be possible as beer, spirits and other alcohols can be used to add validity to the data on wine consumption. The results from this study will compare each respondent’s wine consumption habits in 1994/5 and 1998. These periods represent the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) few studies into the wine consumption habits of the Australian population. By comparing the respondents’ reported types of alcohol consumed over these periods with the data provided by the ABS on alcohol consumption patterns, a level of validity can be attributed to the consumer’s capacity to recall their alcohol consumption patterns. Generating Empirical Data on Wine Consumption The difficulty for investigating previous alcohol consumption habits is in accurately obtaining the data from consumers. Historically, it was believed that earlier consumption habits could not be researched because of a consumer’s inability to accurately record their type or level of consumption in prior periods. (Parfitt 1967). However, Parfitt also found that respondents were able to recall their behaviour more reliably when the behaviour was a regular event. This is a problem for researching retrospectively, but the authors below have shown that consumers cannot only recall their alcohol consumption historically, if the method of surveying is appropriate for the study, there is the potential to record accurate data. Reporting Wine Consumption Early authors on reporting alcohol consumption purport that a respondent’s answers lack reliability. However, studies by Sobell, Hilton, Giovannucci and others have indicated that the consumer can recall their alcohol consumption from previous periods with a high degree of accuracy (Sobell et al. 1988; Hilton 1989; Giovannucci et al. 1991). These studies utilised different methods of surveying a respondent’s recall, and over varying durations of time, with similar results. Sobell and others found that consumers can recall their alcohol consumption over specific periods of time, when the consumer is prompted to recall their consumption over subsequent days of the week, from the start of the study. This method is referred to as the ‘Timeline’ method, and is reliable when the consumer is given time to recall their alcohol consumption from day-to-day over the life of the study (Sobell et al. 1988). Hilton also found that a consumer’s prompted recall method and diary recording can both be effective ways of investigating a consumer’s alcohol consumption patterns (Hilton 1989). Hilton highlighted a number of researchers who have had varying ANZMAC 2003 Conference Proceedings Adelaide 1-3 December 2003 691
levels of success with both methods, and suggested that the recall method can be successful if the respondent is not asked to recall specific characteristics about unique events in their past. The study conducted by Giovannucci and others, shows that the consumer’s ability to recall alcohol consumption in a period four years earlier, can be only marginally less accurate (R 2 value between 0.8 and 0.9, depending on the gender and time) than their ability to recall consumption from the previous week (Giovannucci et al. 1991). This study measured the respondents’ serum levels in the days following their alcohol consumption and interviewed the same respondents four years after the first study. The findings are promising, but the researchers did not control for whether the respondents had changed their consumption patterns from the earlier period. Further, Rasmussen and Lockshin’s findings that consumers select wine by the grape variety is significant for this study. As consumers expect to purchase by the grape variety of their preference, Parfitt’s findings ‘that regular purchases are most likely to be recalled accurately’ support the aims of this study. Consequently, as long as data on a respondent’s alcohol consumption is restricted to type (or variety) and style of alcohol consumed, there is reason to suggest that retrospective consumption habits can be illustrated for the potential benefit of demand forecasting. Methodology Consumers will be asked to indicate their wine consumption habits over numerous periods of their lives. Consumers will be interviewed to investigate their consumption of alcohol in 1994/5 and 1998, by determining when they first drank wine, what style they drank and asking about when these patterns changed. For those who have changed their consumption habits, they will be asked to indicate at what point in their lives they changed their consumption habits. For those consumers who have not changed their consumption habits, they will be asked when they began to consume alcohol and what type(s) of alcohol they consume. The results from this panel of consumers will be compared to the findings from the ABS studies in 1994/5 and 1998 by using a chi-squared test of difference, or an analysis of the variance (ANOVA) between the study’s findings and the outcome from the ABS’ study, whichever one is appropriate for the data provided. The field of Epidemiology often has to undertake studies over a long period of time to investigate causes of change in the health of an individual. Primarily, the methods used are Cohort, Case-control and retrospective cohort studies. These methods are used when changes are required to be illustrated over time. A retrospective cohort study is used to investigate historical changes in individual’s behaviours, but is not extended for any period further than the present. This methodology is therefore ideal for surveying historical wine consumption patterns. Conceptual Papers / Marketing Theory Track 692
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