ferdy murphy - 1-1

“Less goals” mean? The answer
may surprise you.
On average just over 50% of
matches end up in 2.40-2.70
goal range in all matches. So,
surprisingly, if you price in
your estimate of 2.40-2.70
goals in a match you will be
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correct the majority of the
time.
If you get a top versus
bottom scenario then you
simply shift up the number of
expected goals and vice versa.
For a benchmark, if you
look at last season you can
get a better understanding.
Man Utd vs Reading, Fulham
or Derby would see you price
in 3.1, 3.2 and 3.4 goals
respectively.
Look though at Chelsea
versus Man Utd and the
market has priced in only 2.3
goals.
If you want to plumb even
lower goal scenarios you would
need to look at extremely
‘tight’ matches.
Liverpool versus Chelsea
in the semi-final of the
champion’s league threw
up one of the lowest goal
expectations last season of
just 2.1 goals. How do these
scenarios affect the odds?
You can clearly see from the
Liverpool vs. Chelsea match
that as you approach two goals
you are effectively pricing in a
draw.
This is because two goals in
a tight match divided between
two teams are quite likely to
manifest itself as one goal a
piece.
Therefore the price of the
draw will shorten quite a bit
in these and similar cases. It’s
not coincidence that the most
common score is 1-1.
Looking at the other end
of the market, when you
approach three goals or more,
the opposite happens.
This is quite logical when
you think about it. Two teams
can’t divide three goals equally
and therefore if three goals
are scored on average then the
price of the draw will have to
lengthen. When you break it
down to its component parts it
all makes sense!
Now you have the goals
that are expected on average
you will quickly realise they
significantly influence all the
other markets offered on
football matches as well.
There is actually a huge
amount of depth and detail
you can go into but you don’t
really need to do any research
as that is why we created
Soccer Mystic.
It distils the knowledge and
effort I put in over many years
and scales to some easy to use
tools.
All of these will allow you to
model each match to see how
goals, or lack of them, affect
the odds in a match across all
the available markets.
It can do this before the
match has stared and even
when the match is being
played.
Look at the illustration of
our over and under chart,
generated on Soccer Mystic.
It was a for a match where
there were expected to be few
goals.
You can see that if we laid
under 2.5 goals, even if there
are two goals the chance of
the odds moving into a loss
making position can only
occur if a goal is the first goal
is scored before 39 minutes or
two goals before 74 minutes.
Anything else and we could
trade out for a profit at any
point. Soccer Mystic has
already worked out how many
goals are likely in this match
and done the exact maths for
us.
Each match is unique but the
software can model them all in
a number of ways.
Of course, all this is talking
about how many goals, on
average, there should be.
Once the match is underway
you may want to change
you mind, but using what
rationale?
I can answer that question as
well and that is what we shall
look at next month.
Special offer
For a limited time only we
are giving away Soccer Mystic
for free when you subscribe to
Bet Angel.
If you are quick you can now
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Racing Ahead 51