ferdy murphy - 1-1

ac n
AHEAD
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inside this issue
05 WIN A DAVID PARRY RACING
CLUB MEMBERSHIP
Get your hands on a 10% lease share in a
promising young hurdler!
06 FENMAN
He’s had his first day at the races since
Harold Wilson was the Prime Minister
10 PICKS FROM THE PADDOCK
Andrew Ayres with yet more horses that
can pay their way
14 FERDY MURPHY INTERVIEW
Paul Ferguson met the north’s leading
jumps trainer and he talks us through his
prospects for the winter
18 TRAVELLING THE TURF
Simon Nott goes all Bollywood on us
20 TIMEFORM GLOBAL
RANKINGS
Kieran Packman with the pecking order
according to the form gurus
22 IN THE STICKS
Jeremy Grayson’s latest report as he spots
top prospects for the winter
26 PAUL FERGUSON’S JUMPS
ANTE-POST GUIDE
Our master of the form book takes his first
look at the major prizes of the winter game
32 IRISH NATIONAL HUNT
SEASON PREVIEW
Tony Keenan with all you need to know
36 IRISH FLAT REPORT
We list the targets of the major players in
Ireland’s Flat scene
34 TRAVELLING THE TURF
Simon Nott gets lost in the middle of a
pop concert at Sandown and Ascot
38 WESTCOUNTRY WIRE
The mole brings us the latest whispers
40 DAYS AT THE RACES
Colin Phillips had a day out at Hereford
42 SYSTEMS SPOT
David Renham with some methods that
make the most of favourites
44 YESTERDAY’S HEROES
Graham Buddry remembers when racing
clubs were born in the early nineties
46 NEWMARKET STATS
Malcolm Boyle’s Champions Day pointers
50 ON THE EXCHANGES
52 RACING CLUB NEWS
54 WIN MEMBERSHIPS TO
CARRY ON RACING!
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57 SPORTS BETTING
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Joe Conboy
Mervyn Coulson
Fenman
Paul Ferguson
Peter Hunt
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Jeremy Grayson
Steve Hughes
Frank Mummery
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Colin Phillips
Dave Renham
Peter Webb
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ISSN: 1743-551X
Racing Ahead 3
14
20

Starter’s Orders
Joe Conboy kicks off our 50th edition with his monthly
report on horses that caught the eye for clock-watchers
Sir Mark can start off
our Autumn double
THE autumn double is still a
popular bet with punters so I
will have a dabble!
Sir Mark Prescott’s MASTER
OF ARTS (66) has the look of
a stable handicap snip in the
Totesport.com Cambridgeshire
at Newmarket on October 3.
The three-year-old son
of Swain has collected the
prizemoney in his last five
starts, albeit at a lower level.
Three of the wins have been
on the all-weather but the
ground was soft at a mile on
the other two.
He is rated only 99, so he
gets into this valuable prize off
an attractive weight.
Master Of Arts’ shrewd
trainer knows the horse, which
has been scoring with plenty in
hand, has more to give. He is
worth a wager at around 12-1.
Like Prescott, Irish trainer
Tony Martin knows what it
takes to capture the bookies’
cash.
As a result, try LEG SPINNER
Noticeboard
WE have had a few queries
about Racing Ahead Weekend
newspaper from people keen to
know why people like Andrew
Ayres, Joe Conboy and Paul
Ferguson no longer write
columns in the paper.
As of the start of September,
we at Racing Ahead Ltd, the
publishers of this magazine,
do not have any direct link to
Racing Ahead Weekend.
It is published by a separate
company who have their own
editorial team.
for the totesport Cesarewitch a
fortnight later.
The seven-year-old stayer has
been raced over hurdles as well
as the Flat and his last start
on the level was at Newmarket
last year, when he won this race.
His form on the Flat has six
wins from his last 10 runs,
which suggests his class.
Leg Spinner should be fit and
ready to defend this. Johnny
Murtagh was in the saddle 12
months ago, so take the hint if
“Leg Spinner has the
class to defend his
Cesarewitch crown”
he rides again.
Like Master Of Arts he is
generally 12-1.
According to the betting,
Zarkava only has to go into the
stalls to win the Prix de l’Arc
de Triomphe at Longchamp
So I am afraid we cannot
help with the questions. But rest
assured that Paul, Andrew, Tony
Keenan, Steve Hughes, Joe and
the rest are all key members
of the magazine team and will
continue to appear in these
pages.
nTIME for a blatant advert now
but it is does help to save money
in these tight times.
Our subscription special offer
detailed on page 49 allows
you to subscribe to 18 issues of
Racing Ahead for just £28.
on October 5. Clock On has no
speed figures to dispute this
and, going by my eyes, Alain de
Royer-Dupre’s unbeaten threeyear-old
filly looks a superstar.
But, from a ‘value’
perspective, we can side with
GETAWAY at around the 8-1
mark.
Trainer Andre Fabre does
well in France’s premier prize
and this five-year-old, who
ran fourth to Dylan Thomas in
last year’s event, is in winning
form.
This true stayer
won a Group 2
race at Deauville
at the end of
August.
That track, like
Longchamp, is
right handed and he strides
much better going that way.
He has been well beaten
by Soldier Of Fortune and
Youmzain at left-handed
courses this season but he can
get his revenge now.
That works out at only £1.55
which is about the price of half
a bitter in pubs these days, or at
least half a Guinness!
But you’ll have to act quickly
because the offer runs out at the
end of October.
From that date, you will only
get 12 issues for £28, which is
still great value by the way.
So if you are a new reader
or an existing subscriber who
wants to renew, now’s the time
to take advantage of this great
offer.
EDITOR’S LETTER
50 issues -
thanks to
you all!
WHEN we were first planning
the new racing magazine
that was to become Racing
Ahead back in 2003, issue 50
seemed a long way off!
But here we are, we have
made it through the birth, the
difficult early years and we
are now standing firmly on our
own two feet.
We receive a lot of nice
letters telling us how much
you look forward to getting
the magazine each month.
That makes the late nights
putting Racing Ahead together
worthwhile.
We are glad to be a small
part in your enjoyment of
racing and we have always
tried to listen to our readers.
So if you have any
suggestions to make the next
50 issues of Racing Ahead as
strong as the last 50, we are
always interested to hear your
thoughts.
This month’s magazine is
firmly centred on the new
National Hunt season and Paul
Ferguson has been his usual
busy self.
He’s been to see Ferdy
Murphy to compile an
informative stable tour, plus
he’s taken his first look at the
Cheltenham championship
races.
Long-standing readers will
know how good Paul is and
his opinions are always worth
reading.
You’ll have to forgive us
mentioning the Festival in
October — it is our golden
jubilee after all!
4 Racing Ahead

WIN a 10% share in Luzenie
trained by Ferdy Murphy!
Racing Ahead has teamed up
with David Parry Racing to
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We’ve got a 10% lease share
in Luzenie to give away.
The DPRP Luzenie partnership
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and others.
The lease will run from Nov
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n7.5% of all prize money won
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Luzenie is a 5yo novice hurdler
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She will need soft ground and
a trip. She is a full sister to
the excellent staying chaser
Luzcadou who won eight races
at the end of the 1990s.
At the lease termination date,
all ownership rights return to
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and does not involve any change
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How to enter
There are three easy ways to
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1. Go to www.
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3. Write to DPRP Ltd, 21
Cheshire St, Audlem CW3 0AH
with your full contact details &
answer to the question
Question: Who trains Luzenie?
Please indicate if you do
not wish to receive further
information about David Parry
Racing or any other companies.
Closing date October 20.
Winner announced online at
www.DavidParryRacing.com
Racing Ahead 5

Fenman
Things have changed a little at the races since our methods
man was a regular but you can still find a pointer to profit
Ladies’ Night left
little to the Fenman
imagination ... sadly
Iexperienced a situation
a few weeks ago that last
occurred some 40 years
ago. I attended a race meeting!
The reason for this was more
important than that which had
brought about my disinclination
to attend such venues.
I must add here that is
something which my friends,
knowing of my tremendous
interest in the sport, find
extremely hard to believe.
Perhaps a short lead-up to the
event may not be out of place.
My son left home at 18 years of
age, some 40 years ago.
Unfortunately for my wife and
I his ability meant that he had to
take up a situation in London,
and as a consequence we have
not had the pleasure of his and
his family’s company for more
than a few occasions each year.
At school he showed a strong
inclination to geography and
mapping. Passing his exams
enabled him to be accepted for a
position as a cartographer with a
Government department.
Through the years he
progressed and took promotions
ending with managerial
qualifications. I have gone
into this at length for I’m sure
many of you will agree with
my thoughts on the present
situation in education.
It is not a question of winners
and losers for we all have the
ability to succeed at our own
level and be respected for it.
“I have had many a
winner from Bowen &
he didn’t disappoint”
We must get away from
this wartime convoy concept,
whereby the whole must proceed
at the rate of the slowest. Some
lead, others follow but none are
more important than another.
We are all important in our
respective sphere.
My youngest grandson was
the reason for our attendance at
Market Rasen’s August meeting,
unfortunately for us I did not
realise it was a special Ladies’
Night, but more of that later!
My grandson has a leaning
towards photography and has
just won his local newspaper’s
competition for all age groups.
As regards photography he has
concerned himself with still life
and scenic views.
He presented my wife and I
with a wonderful
calendar of
London views,
one for each
month, including
one of St Paul’s
taken from an
angle I have never
seen before. A night shot, but
using the handrail of a walkway
to rest his camera, it gives the
impression of a road leading to
the Cathedral. It would make an
excellent poster I am sure.
My suggestion of a coming
Market Rasen meeting to
enhance his portfolio with some
action shots appealed greatly.
I contacted the racecourse
authorities and gave details
of our reason to attend and
they were very helpful and
gave permission for him to
extend his experience in this
way, photography in such
circumstances is very much a
press prerogative.
They suggested the County
Stand which would give access
to all parts of the course. The
£20 entrance fee each was not
too much of a shock. My son had
booked a table in the restaurant
which one can hold for the whole
meeting.
This was an advantage as
there were many steps to the
actual county stand and which
Get Fenman’s daily fancies
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6 Racing Ahead

from ground level appeared
to have no seats. If this is so
perhaps such as those at football
matches might be incorporated.
There were TVs in the restaurant
showing the races but that is not
quite the same as live action.
I am sure this will be the
precurser of other visits for the
action is in full view as is the
backgrop of the Lincolnshire
countryside. The course itself is
actually slightly lower than the
standing area, for the most part,
as as a consequence one is able
to view all the action. Why have
we not been for so long?
Knowing that we would not
have time for form study, and
I suppose one must have a bet,
I made a couple of selections
beforehand. One had noly to
consult the stats box in a racing
paper to discover Nigel Twiston-
Davies’ and Peter Bowen’s
records at all courses and
showing a profit to boot. Why
look elsewhere?
I have had many a good priced
winner from Peter here and he
was not to disappoint again,
specialising as he does in the
valuable handicaps.
He took the main handicap
with Markington at 15-2 who
had the crowd roaring as until
the last stride Wild Toto, the 7-4
favourite had it all sewn up.
A round trip of nearly 300
miles, confidence to put up his
5lb claiming apprentice in a
valuable handicap was another
boost for my suggestion that
these riders deserve notice in
such events.
The write up could not be more
explicit. “Markington has been
freshened up on the Flat since
his last outing over hurdles in
April and has done enough to
suggest that the slip down the
ratings over hurdles will see him
in profit with a big run.”
A 16-1 shot in the betting
forecast would have put many
off. Perhaps the trainer, as most
do, knew his horse better than
the scribes!
Not to be denied, Twiston-
Davies obliged with Kirby’s Vic
at 5-2 having travelled a fair
distance to carry his penalty at
this course where his trainer has
a success rate above that of his
yearly total. Being a TV addict
for my racing, there is usually
no opportunity to view the
contestants in the parade ring.
This I found to be most
informative, to experience at
it at such close quarter was
revealing. I would not attempt
as to do the professionals on TV
to suggest possible winners on
their looks and demeanour as
they walk by, but having made
one’s selections in whatever way
one does it can perhaps suggest
to you whether you should
increas your stake.
Looking at Kirby’s Vic and
Markington walk by in their
respective races one could see
their superb state of fitness.
Fenman casts his eagle eye in the parade ring
Sights at Market Rasen on
Fenman’s day out.
Pictures by Tom
Underwood
Happy in their walk, noticing
all around them as opposed to
others who gave the impression
that they were wishing they were
at home in their stables!
Only fit and happy horses
could have run their races as
they did. Kirby’s Vic was the
least extended coming home
comfortably.
Markington on the other hand
must have been supremely fit.
At the end of 2m6f he worried
the favourite Wild Tonto out of
victory in the final stride with
only a neck between them, both
giving their all quite readily.
It was not all about horses
though for it was Ladies’ Night,
where the form took much less
finding, leaving little to the
imagination!
I was reliably informed by
someone much younger than I,
that the expression to describe
the view is “to let it all hang out”.
On the younger ones it
certainly did not, seemingly
going in the opposite direction...
but oh... the older ones... have
they heard of Sir Isaac Newton’s
thesis on the Law of Gravity or
have they not realised that there
is beauty in every stage of life!
On the whole then in our
various ways it could be called a
successful venture. Perhaps my
wife and I will go again in the
not too distant future...on an
ordinary raceday.
But just a closing thought.
What a lot the young generation
miss . . . the girls never knowing
the thrill of being courted or the
boys the excitement of courting.
Racing Ahead 7

How it all began
Fenman’s first article for us appeared in issue 4
back in September 2004. Here it is again . . .
Fenman, of the Boston Target series,
has been watching - and tipping -
winners for more than 60 years
Fenman, who was declared overall champion in the Racing
Chronicle naps competition before the paper’s sad demise
Fenman doing ‘his two’ as a boy
8 Racing Ahead

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Paddock picks
Andrew Ayres continues his tireless tour of the country’s
parade rings looking for horses good enough to make
one of Britain’s most sought-after notebooks
Palavacini looks a
star in the making
NEWMARKET August 22 (good-firm)
7f 2yo Maiden (Class 4)
Delegator and Palavacini pulled
clear and look well above average
PALAVICINI has plenty of
scope and attracted support
behind the smart odds-on
favourite Delegator.
Green early on, Palavicini flew
home to snatch second and is a
smart middle-distance colt in
the making.
GOODWOOD August 23 (good-soft)
7f 2yo Fillies Group 3 (Class 1)
Ordinary Group 3 and only the
winner should be followed
FANTASIA is not the biggest
but she’s strengthened since
her winning debut and landed
this prestigious event cosily.
She’ll improve over farther,
has a good attitude and could
give Rainbow Views a race if
sent to Ascot for the Fillies’
Mile.
GREAT LEIGHS August 27 (standard)
1m 2yo Maiden (Class 4)
Fair maiden for the track
WORTH A KING’S looked
fitter than when disappointing
on debut and attracted plenty
of support.
Soon on the backfoot after
being hampered at the start,
he stayed on strongly to finish
third and is much better than
the bare form suggests.
LINGFIELD August 28 (standard)
6f 2yo Maiden (Class 4)
Ordinary maiden were the front
two pulled clear
MASTER LIGHTFOOT is
from a speedy family and this
round-barrelled colt certainly
has a sprinter’s physique.
Sharply away, he led his rivals
a merry dance until headed
close home and is nailed on to
win a similar event.
SANDOWN August 29 (good)
7f 2yo Maiden (Class 4)
This featured some promising
colts and is a race to note
SOUTER POINT looked a
shade backward in his coat and
“Fantasia could give
Rainbow Views a race
in the Fillies’ Mile”
ran green for much of the race.
However, he came home best
of all to finish second and will
be a different proposition next
time.
LIBERATION was full of
himself in the paddock and
pulled hard before sticking on
bravely to finish third.
Mark Johnston’s colt still
looked green when opening his
account at Brighton a fortnight
later and should continue to
progress.
RA JUNIOR has plenty of
scope and attracted support at
long odds. Forced wide after
running green, he produced
a sharp burst of speed to lead
two-out before getting tired
and fading
into fourth.
Losses will be
recouped.
7f 2yo Maiden
(Class 4)
Another
smart maiden
that will produce plenty of
winners
ITHBAAT is a leggy, athletic
colt who looked a shade
green. John Gosden’s bay was
repeatedly hampered before
staying on well to finish fourth
Ethaara (blue silks)
and could turn out the best
of these in time. He’s a smart
prospect.
KEMPTON September 3 (standard)
7f Maiden (Class 5)
Ordinary maiden
CADRE outclassed his rivals
in the paddock and swooped
late to score impressively.
He’s entitled to improve for
this return from a 334-day
break and could develop into a
Listed class performer.
LINGFIELD September 5 (standard)
1m2f 3yo Handicap (Class 3)
Competitive contest that was
turned into a procession
CRACKENTORP is a scopey,
late developing type who
attracted plenty of support
against the short priced
favourite Sortita.
Always travelling best, he
quickened clear in fine style
and is clearly thriving. There’s a
big handicap in this unexposed
gelding.
7f 3yo Handicap (Class 6)
Modest handicap
BILLBERRY looked in great
order and won this weak event
without coming off the bridle.
Fantasia
10 Racing Ahead

A-Z OF PADDOCK POSITIVES
FOR OCTOBER
Billberry
Cadre
Crackentorp
Ethaara
Evasive
Fantasia
First Queen
Headline Act
Howdigo
Imperial Fling
Ithbaat
La De Two
Liberation
Master Lightfoot
Palavicini
Ra Junior
Signor Peltro
Souter Point
Worth A King’s
Many congratulations to the team at
Racing Ahead magazine on reaching issue number 50!
Racing Ahead
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11

Paddock Picks
“Headline Act ran green on
debut and looks nailed on
to win races in time”
He’s been raised 13lb as a result
of this emphatic success, but
remains unexposed after just
five starts and can strike again
from a mark of 67.
KEMPTON September 6 (standard)
7f Handicap (Class 4)
Well contested event
ETHAARA has started to
thrive physically and performed
miracles to win this after being
badly positioned turning for
home.
She’s been left on a handy
mark (81) after this game win
and must be supported next
time.
LINGFIELD September 9 (standard)
7f 2yo Fillies’ Maiden (Class 5)
Ordinary maiden
FIRST QUEEN is a butty,
tough looking filly who caught
the eye staying on to finish fifth
after being badly positioned
turning for home.
She’s qualified for nurseries
now and will be placed to
advantage by the canny Luca
Cumani.
KEMPTON September 10 (standard)
7f 2yo Maiden (Class 5)
Hot maiden where the front
three pulled nine lengths clear
EVASIVE has bags of scope
but looked green and proved
difficult to load.
He’s probably walking a
tightrope mentally and Ryan
Moore (pictured) wasn’t overly
hard on the colt, pushing out
with hands and heels to finish
third after being badly placed
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He’ll repay that kindness and
be hard to beat next time.
SANDOWN September 11 (soft)
1m2f Handicap (Class 3)
Run-of-the-mill handicap
HOWDIGO went into the
notebook when placed over
1m4f at Goodwood in late July
and looked in great shape again
here.
However, this drop in trip
exposed the colt’s lack of pace
and he had to settle for third.
Howdigo is still well treated
and deserves another chance
over farther.
DONCASTER September 12 (soft)
1m 2yo Maiden (Class 4)
Solid maiden with plenty of well
bred newcomers on show
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LA DE TWO looked green and
was soon on the backfoot after
a slow start.
However, he’s bred to stay
and flew home to finish an eyecatching
second.
He’ll improve massively and is
a smart middle-distance colt in
the making.
IMPERIAL FLING wasn’t as
forward as some of his rivals
but travelled strongly for much
of the race before getting tired
as lack of condition told.
He’s better than the bare
result suggests and one to bear
in mind.
1m 2yo Maiden (Class 4)
Fair maiden run in a slower time
than division one
HEADLINE ACT looked green
in the paddock and showed
definite signs of inexperience
once underway.
He did well to finish third and
is nailed on to win races over
this trip and beyond.
GOODWOOD September 13 (soft)
7f Handicap (Class 2)
Ordinary handicap that
produced a messy finish
SIGNOR PELTRO is in great
nick at the moment and looked
desperately unlucky after
being hemmed in as the pace
quickened. He came home
strongly to finish second and is
weighted to win a similar event
before the Flat season ends.
12 Racing Ahead

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Ferdy Murphy
Paul Ferguson takes a trip to Yorkshire to meet a trainer
who’s becoming a familiar face at jumping’s top table
A stable that’s high
on quality and
quantity this season
When you send
a horse to
be trained at
Ferdy Murphy’s
Wynbury Stables not only
would you be leaving your prized
possession in the hands of a
multiple Cheltenham Festival
winning trainer, but you would
also be booking your ticket to
a most enjoyable owner’s open
day and barbecue.
The journey to North Yorkshire
was made worthwhile for me by
the tasty hog roast, which was
served up after around 100
horses were paraded.
All joking aside (though I
rarely joke about food), the
set up at the West Witton
base is tremendous and eight
Cheltenham Festival winners
would testify to this.
The trainer enjoyed another
highly satisfactory season last
term, with the highlights the
Paddy Power Gold Cup success
of L’Antatartique and Naiad Du
Misselot’s victory in the Coral
Cup.
Murphy, who welcomed
over 150 on his Open Day, has
plenty to look forward to in the
coming months and he again
has his sights set on the Festival
next March.
The trainer seems to hold
a particular strong hand in
the novice chase division, in
which Kalahari King, who is
to be aimed at the Arkle, and
the aforementioned Naiad Du
Misselot head the team.
The novice chase squad also
includes the likes of Blackpool
Billy, Master Builder, Poker De
“Nine Sivola is rightly
known as the best
maiden in training”
Sivola and Supreme Builder,
who are all expected to leave
previous form behind when
faced with the larger obstacles,
while dual National runnerup
Nine De Sivola is back in
training.
Having finished second in the
Irish and Scottish Nationals
during April 2007 he is rightly
described as “the best maiden
in the country” and his trainer
is targeting either the Royal &
SunAlliance Chase, or the fourmile
National Hunt Chase, a
race in which he fell prior to his
National exploits.
Of the more established
names in the yard, L’Antartique
looked on good terms with
himself.
Having been fortunate enough
to visit Wynbury Stables on a
number of occasions, the eightyear-old
looked as well as I have
ever seen him. The athletic
individual has had an operation
since last seen on track.
Despite being only seven,
New Alco falls in to the stable
stalwart category and Murphy
is aiming him at the Hennessy
Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury
in November. Pulled-up in
the contest last year, Murphy
believes New Alco was at his
best when
winning on his
reappearance
at Carlisle last
term, so he will
head straight to
Berkshire first
time out where
he is likely to clash with Gold
Cup winner Denman.
As well as a strong novice
chase team, the likes of Pakineo
Des Pictons, The Hollinwell and
Big Burrows (all of whom seem
to be very well regarded) head
the squad of novice hurdlers,
having shaped well in bumpers
last season.
Murphy also had sounded
most positive about an un-raced
pair Catch Bob and Carrick
Star. The former really caught
my eye during the parade and
Murphy implied that stable
jockey, Graham Lee, was most
14 Racing Ahead

L’Antartique (right)
impressed with him when he
first sat on him. The trainer
said “he looks a very nice horse,
a gorgeous looking horse.”
Of Carrick Star he sounded
almost equally as excited “I
think he’s quite nice and I’m
happy with him.”
Aside from the striking Catch
Bob, one horse that really stood
out to me, both in the parade
and just the way he simply held
himself in his box, was an unnamed
son of Karinga Bay who
will carry the famous green,
yellow and white silks of Trevor
Hemmings in bumpers this
season.
Again, Murphy clearly thinks
he has another smart prospect
on his hands “the Karinga Bay
four-year-old looks an absolute
gorgeous horse and will
probably have a couple of runs
in bumpers at the back end
before we put him away.”
Here, Murphy has selected
several of his string for Racing
Ahead readers to follow:
Aces Four
We’re going to play it by ear
with him, speak with the owners
and see how he comes along. If
he looks like he is going to come
to good early we’ll go for the
Peterborough Chase and the
King George and, if not, we’ll
wait and go to Cheltenham or
Aintree.
Bedlam Boy
I got him from Nicky Richards
and he’s had a couple of good
runs in him, he was third to
Tidal Bay at Aintree. He hasn’t
had that many runs, hasn’t
got many miles on the clock so
we’re looking forward to him.
He’ll go straight over fences.
Beggars Cap
We’ll probably stay two
miles for the time being over
fences; he jumps fantastic.
We hope he’ll make it up in to
that two mile handicap at the
Cheltenham Festival, the one
that changes it’s name every
year, it used to be the old Grand
Annual – that would be the race
for him.
Big Burrows
He looks a nice sort, who has
done a lot of schooling and he
Racing Ahead 15

“Kalahari King wants good
ground and the Arkle is his
long-term target”
jumps well. He’ll go straight
over hurdles and McCoy (who
rode him in a bumper at Ayr)
said to start over two miles.
He’s a big, big, big horse and a
chaser in time. I wouldn’t run
him on fast ground, he wants
to get his toe in.
Blackpool Billy
He’ll go novice chasing when
soft ground and a trip will be
ideal for him. He’s done plenty
of schooling and jumps well.
He’s a nice horse.
Kalahari King
Goes novice chasing and we’ll
start him off over two miles and
see where we go from there.
Might start off somewhere like
Ayr or Haydock, one of those
tracks. He wants good ground
and the Arkle would be the
target.
L’Antartique
We’ll start him back around
Christmas time I would think
and then we’d be looking at
the Ryanair Chase again as the
end of season target. We may
try him over further again,
we ran him over three in the
Leopardstown race (Lexus
Chase) and maybe that was the
wrong thing to do at the time.
He should be alright over three
miles, but whether he would
be alright over three at the top
level is another thing.
Master Builder
He’s going to go novice
chasing, three miles on soft
ground and tough tracks will
suit him. He won on good
ground (over hurdles), but I
think he’ll come in to his own
on soft ground.
Naiad Du Misselot
Novice chasing, plenty of
options with him and the
Jewson at the Festival maybe,
races like that. We tried three
miles early last season and
maybe it was the wrong time
to do it, better off trying a trip
later in the season and he would
have needed the run a bit, but
he did stop quick at two-and-ahalf
so that would worry you a
little bit. That’s why we stepped
back then and didn’t push him.
He’s best fresh and we may start
off somewhere like Haydock,
Ayr, those types of tracks.
Noir Et Vert
He wants fast ground, better
the ground the better and he’ll
start in a three-and-a-quarter
mile chase at Cheltenham. We’ll
get on earlier with him this year
than what we have done.
I was saving him for the
Scottish National last season
and the owners wanted to run
at Cheltenham. He had a hard
race at Cheltenham when he
wasn’t ready for it. He jumps
fantastic and I think in time he
will be grand.
Aces Four
Pakineo Des Pictons
He could be anything and he’ll
go straight over hurdles now.
There was no point killing him
last year (only had one run) and
we wouldn’t be running him on
firm ground, none of the horses
here are really firm ground
horses, most of them want to
get their toe in. We’ll probably
start him off over two-anda-half
miles and in time he’d
probably want three miles.
Poker De Sivola
Going to go novice chasing
and I can’t wait for him to go
over fences, I think he’s a nice
sort. He’s schooled well, jumps
brilliant. He wants a real trip,
three miles plus on any ground,
makes no difference to him he
handles it all.
Supreme Builder
Again, goes novice chasing
and he’s a grand sort, tough as
nails. He’ll stay a trip, ground
doesn’t seem to make any
difference to him, he’s run on
fast ground and he’s run on soft
ground, doesn’t seem to hinder
him in any way.
He’s just a nice horse, just
taken time to grow in to himself
so we took our time with him
and it paid off when he won a
couple of races last season. He’s
just going to take time.
The Duke’s Speech
We concentrate on chasing
with him and I think he’ll get it
right. He had some really good
runs in handicap hurdles, so
I think he will get it right and
he’ll do plenty of schooling.
He would want good ground
and might make up in to a nice
sort.
The Hollinwell
I love him and think he’s going
to be a top-class horse, I think
he’s going to be brilliant. He’s
going straight over hurdles,
probably starting over two-anda-half
but we’ll see at the time,
it’s sometimes hard to get in to
these races. I wouldn’t run him
on firm ground, he’d want to get
his toe in as he’s a big horse.
Three Mirrors
He’ll probably go for the Paddy
Power, we did give him a feeler
at Cheltenham over 2m5f and
we felt that was OK for him.
Tidal Fury
Two-and-a-half-miles on
soft ground, the heavier the
ground the better I think for
him. Won at Haydock last year
and the heavier the better, flat
tracks like Newbury will suit.
Won £250,000 in France over
hurdles and rated 130 over
fences, which is a good mark.
Watch My Back
Got him along with Bedlam
Boy and he won his bumper
first time out (also won a novice
hurdle). He looks a nice sort.
FERDY’S FAVOURITE (trainer’s pick):
“The one horse I’d pick for
the season would probably
Pakineo Des Pictons. I love The
Hollinwell but I’m not going
to kill him this year. I think
Pakineo will go all the way.”
FERGIE’S FAVOURITE (reporter’s
pick):
Though I think both Kalahari
King and Naiad Du Misselot will
make up in to very smart novice
chasers, I have long been of the
opinion that Noir Et Vert has a
big prize in him and this could
be his year. I have a feeling the
16 Racing Ahead

seven-year-old will end up as a
Grand National horse one day,
so I was pleased when Ferdy
told me he definitely jumps
well enough to make up in to
an Aintree horse.
A-Z
Aces Four
Bedlam Boy
Beggars Cap
Big Burrows
Blackpool Billy
Kalahari King
L’Antartique
Master Builder
Naiad Du Misselot
Noir Et Vert
Pakineo Des Pictons
Poker De Sivola
Supreme Builder
The Duke’s Speech
The Hollinwell
Three Mirrors
Tidal Fury
Watch My Back
Naaid De Misselot (left)
in winning form
at Cheltenham
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Racing Ahead 17

Travelling the turf
Simon Nott has had all the joys of Bollywood, been soaked
to the skin and seen some layers paying out for once
Clever money on
top as bookies take
a hit for a change
There had been plenty of
rain before Goodwood’s
Tuesday meeting. The
going was officially soft
but the swathe of non-runners
and slow times suggested that it
may have been more testing.
The crowd was sparse for what
was a low-key meeting by the
course’s standards but those that
were there appeared to share
the opinion that She’s So Pretty
was something to bet on in the
opener. The books who priced
up 7-2 soon revised that opinion
and priced accordingly. There was
also good support for Optimus
from 20-1 into 12-1. The latter
proved to be the shrewd money
but neither won, that accolade
went to 11-1 shot Fort Churchill
but Optimus did manage to bag
the place money.
Lady Rusty was the subject
of some shrewd support in the
next. One bookmaker’s floorman
reported to his boss that there
was ‘clever money’ for the
filly after spotting some lively
operators going in for her on the
rails. ‘Why do you call it clever
money?’ asked a nearby punter.
The floorman cast him a
courtesy glance but didn’t have
time to indulge in any further
dialogue. A few minutes later,
just after Lady Rusty won the
race with some ease the floorman
approached the curious punter,
winked and said ‘That’s why.’
The popular opinion in some
quarters is that the ring has lost
all of its bookmakers and with it
the characters. It is true that most
layers are now hedging into the
exchanges and though the days
of having an opinion and backing
it with cash are not gone.
There was an example of this
in the next. One flamboyant
rails layer has a low opinion of a
certain jockey, so much so that
he will go over the odds (and the
exchanges) to get his mounts
in the book. I won’t mention
the jockey or the horse because
that just wouldn’t be fair — the
jockey’s mum might read this.
But the name was bandied
around as the layer goaded
punters into backing the
combination. The price in the ring
“The full force of
favourite power hit
them in the hods”
was around 10-1, he went 14-1.
He was hardly knocked over for
the price but did inform me that
he took about £600 each-way
out of the horse. At the furlong
pole he must have been nervous,
but at the line he was proved
correct and kept the money. Not
satisfied that he had won off of
the punters he couldn’t help a
little triumphant dig proclaiming
that any other jockey would have
finished in the frame.
The same bookmaker was in
full swing for the next, his board
emblazoned with the legend
‘Spend your social security
money here’ though few of the
Goodwood members seemed to
know what that phrase meant!
There was fun and games on the
track as well as in the ring when
Excusez Moi became mulish
going down to, or rather trying
not to go down to the start. Poor
jockey Liam Jones had a bad
enough time getting the beast to
the post only then to suffer the
indignity of his breaches falling
down when he got there, then to
top it all his mount was last.
Effigy burns the books
Salisbury hosted an eight-race
card on Thursday and attracted
a decent crowd in the process as
with Goodwood there was a bit of
a stick-on in the
opener as Effigy
was punted from
3-1 into 5-2f. This
time the money
was well-placed
with the gamble
only having to be
pushed out to win.
I mentioned to one established
Westcountry book that it wasn’t
the best of starts. He gave me a
grin and replied that it was only
fair that had a losing day because
they were long overdue one. So
the game’s not gone then.
That losing day looked might
still be a long way off when
Fanditha sprang a 14-1 surprise
in the maiden beating the 4-7
hotpot Bouvardia. The bookmaker
I spoke to may well have been
stoical about the prospect of
a losing day but several of his
brethren were doing their best
to ensure that it didn’t happen
betting a sixth the odds a place
on the race.
Assuming each-way punters
would have given the swerve to
those layers they must have got
the money in the race. Which
was just as well for them because
the full force of favourite power
was about to come down and hit
them right in the hods.
Cityscape was the first one to
clobber them, all the rage at 11-
10f and duly obliged. ‘I don’t like
races where they win that easy,
there’s no excitement’ joked one
winning punter as he collected
a sizeable chunk of readies. The
bookmaker did force a little smile,
after all it was still early days.
Serious Attitude was backed
from 13-2 into 9-2jf in the next
and did some damage to many a
book. That was pretty bad but at
the price not many layers would
have stood the horse for the Bank
Of England but it was the next
race that hit the ring for six.
Intense was backed from 2-1
into 11-8f for the second division
of the maiden fillies’ stakes.
There were 13 runners with some
good yards represented so some
firms decided that it was time to
stick their chests out and take on
the punters. That was a very big
mistake especially when the word
18 Racing Ahead

‘comfortably’ appears in the post
race analysis.
Things didn’t stop there. Just
Like A Woman was bet from 9-2
into 7-2jf and got home by a neck
under Hayley Turner, the layers
were too busy grumbling and
peering into their bags for readies
to have their hearts melted by
her beaming smile this time.
The favourite didn’t win the
next, but only because it wouldn’t
go into the stalls. Bold Argument
won at 11-2 minus a rule four.
Most layers that were still there
for the last were pretty pleased
it was nearly over so they could
draw a line under a terrible day.
It was just about to get a lot
worse for the ring, helped along
by the off-course firms who were
no doubt looking at bad losses
in multiples given the plethora
of winning favourites. They got
stuck into Frankie Dettori’s
mount Regal Flush backing the
duo from 6-4 into 11-10f before
winning accordingly.
After the last favourite won
with ease I thought I’d venture
over to the Westcountry book so
happy to accept a losing day that
he considered due. I had only
gotten halfway to his joint when
I copped a look that said it all so I
turned on my heel.
An Elvis lookalike was
spotted at Kempton
Hooray for Bollywood
Kempton’s Friday night theme
was ‘Bollywood’. There were
stilt-walkers in Indian attire, an
Indian themed band-dj and tasty
titbits of curry flavoured chick
peas being offered around.
Rocket Rob won the first
under Jamie Spencer at 15-8f
which needless to say wasn’t a
great start for the ring. Spencer
notched up a double in the next
when Crowded House landed a
gamble having been supported
from 10-3 into 11-4jf with ease.
Then the rain started. ‘Do
they have monsoons at this
time of year in Mumbai?’ asked
one bookmaker. I was quite
impressed that he knew that
Mumbai was the indeed the
home of Bollywood but couldn’t
answer his question though did
make the observation that if they
do it’s probably warmer.
The punters that did brave the
torrents appeared were sweet on
the chances of Adorn, at 5-6f but
did justify their support under
Ryan Moore.
It was another popular jockey’s
turn in the next when Frankie
Dettori won on 10-3 shot
Moonlife getting the better of 6-
4f Say No Now by half a length.
The winner had been 9-2 so
wasn’t a particularly good result
for a sodden and practically
deserted ring. Deserted at least
by punters but the books were
standing their ground probably
thinking it would be wetter to try
to leave than stay.
The resilience of the layers was
rewarded when they got another
favourite beaten in the next
when Grand Vizier won at 8-1
(from 11-1) with the well-backed
11-10f Cave Lion back in third.
The result that they had all been
waiting from came in the last
when Mohawk Star belied odds
of 20-1 to pip Moonshine Beach
the 3-1f by a nose on the line.
It’s normally only Boxing Day
when Kempton Park takes centre
stage but basked in the limelight
on Saturday when keeping the
racing show on the road. With
every other meeting submerged
the already excellent card was
heralded by most ensuring the
press room was full and the
sandwiches devoured before you
could say ‘they are going down
for the first’.
The bookmakers that had
been betting on Friday were still
drying out but were warmed up
by the first winning favourite
when Elnawin landed the opener
having been backed from 7-4 into
6-4 helped in by the offices.
‘I hate this place’ grumbled
one bookmaker to nobody in
particular as he got bundles of
soggy readies together to pay a
growing queue of winners.
He liked it better in the next
when 16-1 shot Hattan sprang
a surprise. ‘Pay Pay’ shouted
one rails layer who blatantly had
nobody to pay at all but spare
a thought for the boards layer
betting in a very poor position
who ran into a £2000-£100 eachway
the winner.
There was a 16-runner
handicap to get stuck into next,
Premio Loco was only 5-2 to land
the race and that price was soon
demolished by one off-course
firm determined to smash the
price off of the boards.
The layers seemed keen to take
on a shortish one in a big field
but eventually had to capitulate
and the price tumbled to 2-1f. It
appeared that the off-course firm
knew more than their on-course
comrades, the jolly won easily.
The already decent crowd were
swelled by what appeared to be
several ‘stag’ groups. A guy from
one such group was having a bet
with a rails layer, the layer looked
up, then to my surprise and
somewhat embarrassment he
called out to me, ‘Eh Simon, look
at this bloke, doesn’t he look like
Elvis Costello.’
To be fair the bookie was right,
but I wasn’t sure if likening the
chap to the warbler of ‘Oliver’s
Army’ would go down too well, so
I took the coward’s way out and
mumbled about not having the
right glasses.
There were three horses really
backed in the race, two of them
fought out the finish. Captain
Ramius won the race from his
15-8jf Ashram, though only after
surviving a stewards enquiry. The
winner probably cost the runnerup
the race but it kept it anyway.
There was another short one in
a handicap backed by the offices,
this time Ethaara supported from
11-4 into 2-1f. Once again the
on-course books took on the offcourse
money and once again the
off-course money was too sharp
but this time only by a neck.
There was a desperate finish and
a nose in the next race. Precision
Break got up on the line to foil a
gamble on Barrowdale who had
been backed from 16-1 right into
10-1.
His backers must have been
gutted as most people thought
that he had just held on in the
photo and traded as short as 1-10
on the exchanges. Not everyone
was miffed though as the winner
had also been backed from 7-1
into 5-1.
The concluding handicap was
also the subject of off-course
attention, this time the office lads
left it behind when Pediment (9-
4 from 7-2) could only manage
fourth behind 9-2 shot Amure. A
result at last for the layers?
Well this is a tale of mainly woe
this month so I have to relate
that the winner had been backed
from 11-2, I didn’t have the heart
or nerve to ask.
Racing Ahead 19

Timeform Rankings
Kieran Packman looks back at a difficult month for the sport
and ahead to the big end-of-season showdowns
Weather playing
havoc with racing’s
brightest stars
With the prestigious
York Ebor meeting
lost to the elements
in August, racing fans will
have been hoping that adverse
weather conditions would subside
in September, but, sadly,
that’s not proved the case so
far.
The Irish Champion Stakes at
Leopardstown was supposed
to see the eagerly anticipated
rematch between Duke of
Marmalade and New Approach,
the former having come out
on top when landing his fifth
Group One success on the trot
in the rerouted International
Stakes at Newmarket the previous
month, but as it was Duke
of Marmalade failed to take up
his engagement on account of
the prevailing testing conditions.
In the event, the ground
wasn’t as gruelling as was
feared and New Approach was
no more than workmanlike in
landing the odds from 50/1chance
Traffic Guard, his odds
for the Arc lengthening in some
places after a performance rated
by Timeform as 7lb below
his Derby form.
Duke of Marmalade, currently
Timeform’s leading turf horse
in the world, could reportedly
next take in a conditions race on
the polytrack at Great Leighs,
with an eye on the Breeders’
Cup Classic, rather than head
for the Longchamp showpiece.
Of course, one horse firmly
on course for the Arc is the
unbeaten French filly Zarkava,
now rated 129p by Timeform.
Already established as the best
three-year-old filly in Europe,
she potentially had more to
fear from the step up to twelve
furlongs than the opposition
in the Prix Vermeille, but came
through with flying colours.
With her effectiveness at
the trip now proven, in a wellrun
race at that, she looks in a
strong position to end the long
losing run of fillies (particularly
from the classic generation) in
the Arc.
It’s worth pointing out,
“Filly Zarkava is in
a strong position
for the Arc”
though, that she’s unlikely to
be able to afford to lose as much
ground at the start in the Arc as
she did in the Vermeille (softer
conditions would also make it
more difficult to make up the
deficit).
Hopefully Alain Royer-Dupre
will have ironed out that kink
by the first Sunday in October.
Also across the channel, one
O’Brien top-notcher who did
take his chance on soft ground
was Henrythenavigator, vanquished
for the first time this
season when only fifth behind
Goldikova in the Prix du
Moulin.
This valuable victory for the
Freddie Head-trained filly adds
further lustre to Zarkava’s
Arc credentials, as she readily
brushed aside Goldikova earlier
in the season.
Goldikova, now rated 123,
herself has options in the
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at
Ascot and the Breeders’ Cup.
She could cross swords with
Henrythenavigator for a rematch
at either of those destinations,
although should soft
ground prevail at Ascot it may
be that the latter will head
straight to the Breeders’ Cup.
Which race
Henrythenavigator
turns up in is
unclear, though
connections have
inferred that,
should Duke of
Marmalade go to
the Arc, a tilt at the Classic for
the dual-Guineas winner isn’t
out of the question.
If Henrythenavigator contest
the Breeders’ Cup Classic
he could face two of America’s
leading dirt horses, namely the
current leader of the Timeform
Global Rankings, Curlin, as
well as Kentucky Derby and
Preakness winner Big Brown.
Elsewhere, the Breeders’ Cup
Turf could feature the likes of
2006 winner Red Rocks and
Dermot Weld’s Winchester,
winner of the Grade 1
Secretariat Stakes at Arlington
last time. One interesting con-
tender is the Coronation Cup
winner Soldier of Fortune.
The latter has been out just
twice so far this season and
would seem to have been held
back for an autumn campaign,
his runaway success in last
year’s Irish Derby suggesting
he’s in his element on testing
ground, conditions he’s yet to
encounter since.
As ever, the Queen Elizabeth
II Stakes over a mile at Ascot
looks sure to attract a quality
field and we could see
Ravens Pass renew rivalry with
Henrythenavigator.
There is also the potential for
French raiders, with Tamayuz
(impressive winner of the Prix
Jacques Le Marois and rated
126), Darjina, Natagora and
the aforementioned Goldikova
all possibles.
In winning the Irish Leger
by thirteen lengths, Septimus
confirmed himself as the best
European stayer in training
with a performance as good as
any he had put up previously,
producing a dominant winning
performance on his return from
a break of 2½ months.
He is still young for a stayer
and could well be top dog in
this division for a number of
years to come. He looks a likely
type for the Melbourne Cup (for
which he shortened as favourite),
though under top weight
he’ll have little if anything in
hand of the other European
contenders on ratings.
20 Racing Ahead

For further Timeform information go to www.timeform.com
Culrin tops the rankings
Timeform Global Rankings
134 CURLIN S M Asmussen, USA
133 DUKE OF MARMALADE A P O’Brien, Ireland
132 BIG BROWN R E Dutrow jnr, USA
132§PAPAL BULL Sir Michael Stoute, GB
131 HENRYTHENAVIGATOR A P O’Brien, Ireland
131 NEW APPROACH J S Bolger, Ireland
131 SACRED KINGDOM P F Yiu, Hong Kong
130 RAVEN’S PASS J H M Gosden, GB
130 SEPTIMUS A P O’Brien, Ireland
130 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE A P O’Brien, Ireland
130 TARTAN BEARER Sir Michael Stoute, GB
130 WEEKEND HUSSLER R McDonald, Aus
130 YOUMZAIN M R Channon, GB
Racing Ahead 21

In The Sticks
Despite the weather, Jeremy Grayson has still seen some
performances of note in between the showers
Brousse the latest
in the Pipe line of
French imports
MARKET RASEN, August 30th (good,
good to firm places)
2m3.5f Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
For all that the going might
have been a touch livelier than
ideal, BROUSSE EN FEUX’s
merely workmanlike victory
over a 23lb inferior rival from a
largely out-of-form yard looked
like that of a mare with almost
nothing more left in hand over
the handicapper as a hurdler.
The potential to make a mark
over fences at a young age is
certainly there, though, halfbrother
Boisnoir having been
a Grade 1 4yo chase winner at
Auteuil several years ago, and
the Pipe yard can usually be
relied upon to find its novice
chasers a winning opening.
3m1f Handicap Chase (Class 4)
Any number of training
setbacks have restricted
BRUMOUS to just six starts
– including this one – since
winning a 3m Leicester novices’
chase 19 months ago, but
a plunge from 15-2 to 9-2
indicated many believed he
would make count a mark
that had dropped 18lb in the
interim. He was another for
whom the going was just that
bit quick (he has won fresh,
so the 200-day absence wasn’t
necessarily a concern), and
the Oliver Sherwood yard is
probably a few weeks away from
really getting going judged on
previous autumns’ evidence, so
it is fair to hope he can step up
on his well held fifth here in the
coming weeks.
2m4f Handicap Chase (Class 3)
It was around this time last
year that Jonjo O’Neill got
enough improvement out of
rookie chaser Fier Normand
for him to creep into the big
2m6.5f handicap here at the
end of September (rebranded as
the “Prelude” Chase this year),
in which he ran a huge race
to finish second. Stablemate
NELSON’S SPICE has a broadly
similar profile, and a facile
victory in today’s feature contest
might just get him a place off a
low weight, and a mark in the
early 120s, in the same race.
Already a chase winner over the
“Prelude” course and distance,
“The Open meeting
is a realistic target for
Indian Pipe Dream”
and on far softer going than
today’s at that, the Presenting
7yo jumps soundly for such an
inexperienced chaser; and as a
horse more content to sit just
off the pace than make it, he
may be able to pick up some or
all of the pieces if a destructive
battle for the lead occurs.
NEWTON ABBOT, August 31st (good,
good to soft places)
2m3f Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4)
Out of a 1m6f winner, and
with win and place form at
up to a galloping 2m2f on the
Flat herself, including on firm
and heavy, the chances of this
assignment proving enough of a
stamina test for LAST FLIGHT
on her hurdles bow were always
going to be slim. An early
mistake killed off what hopes
connections may have had, but
she popped round adequately
enough thereafter, and she can
be confidently expected to leave
her soundly-beaten sixth today
well behind her once stepped
up to 2m6f or further.
2m6f Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A change of scenery has made
all the difference with INDIAN
PIPE DREAM, who emerged
from the packed midfield at
two-thirds distance to land this
biggest staying handicap hurdle
prize of the
summer and
run up his
hat-trick for
David Pipe in
the process.
A switch back
to the Flat for
the Cesarewitch, for which his
rating of 95 already guarantees
him a run, seems likely to be
his next assignment. He still
looks to have at least one more
decent staying handicap hurdle
in him after that, however, and
whilst Coral Cup talk is probably
fanciful at this stage of the
season, something over 2m5f+
at Cheltenham’s Open meeting
could be a realistic target.
SEDGEFIELD, September 2nd
(hdles: good to firm, chase: good)
2m4f Novices’ Hcap Chase (Class 5)
George Moore’s jumps string
has tended to get into its stride
David Pipe has lots to
smile about with Brousse
En Feux
from around October onwards
in the last few years, so it
would not surprise if PERLY
SPENCER proved a bit better
than his onepaced 10l second
here in the fullness of time. It
still represented a career-best
effort, though, the combination
of a first-time tongue tie, a
drop back in trip from three
miles and more assertive riding
tactics than hitherto all playing
their part. A sound surface also
looks to be a prerequisite.
HEREFORD, September 3rd (good)
2m4f Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
For a yard that gets its share
of well-supported runners
(and winners), Jim Best’s
THURSDAY’S KNIGHT was
22 Racing Ahead

friendless enough (pushed out
to 9-1) ahead of this first run
in four months. His faltering
effort late on confirmed the
impression given at Worcester
in May that 2m4f is beyond
him, even on a sound surface,
but he still had around a dozen
rivals well behind him here
and he doesn’t look bereft of
ability.
Doubtless these clever
connections will find an outlet
for him soon enough, and a 2m-
2m2f seller may be a bit closer
to his optimum race conditions
than this was.
2m4f Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4)
Brendan Powell has been
able to instil greater form
and consistency into ALECIA
since her arrival from Andrew
Balding, and her second here to
this summer’s prolific novices’
hurdler Winter Star represented
her third podium finish from
as many hurdles starts for the
Upper Lambourn handler.
A literal reading by the
assessor of her 12l proximity
to a 23lb superior rival here
could put her on a seriously
unappealing handicap mark, so
a return to the slightly easier
world of mares’ novices should
be considered – maybe back
down at the minimum trip,
where her front-running tactics
arguably stand a better chance
of bearing fruit.
FONTWELL, September 7th (good)
2m2.5f Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle
(Class 4)
The worry ahead of
COLORADO BLUE’s hurdling
debut was that he wouldn’t
be as fresh as his main rivals,
having been on the go on the
Flat first for Roger Charlton
and then for current handler
Charlie Longsdon since April.
However, it was more likely a
combination of the extended
trip, and a potentially very
useful hurdling recruit in the
winner Woolfall Treasure (an
11lb superior animal on the level
at his best), that contributed
to his 18l second rather than
fatigue. He wouldn’t appeal
on softer going from what we
already know about him, but a
novices’ hurdle of comparable
quality to this on today’s sort
of surface and over a trip closer
to 2m should suit him down to
the ground.
2m4f Claiming Hurdle (Class 5)
The 6,000gns purchase of
subsequent multiple winner
William Butler earlier this
summer reminded us that Evan
Williams remains an astute
purchaser of other people’s castoffs.
There may be some merit
in monitoring POSTMASTER’s
progress hereafter, then,
following the £8,000 claiming
of him from Roger Ingram
after his fourth place finish in
this contest. Utterly exposed
as a Flat performer, this was
conversely only his fourth try
over hurdles, and a mark in the
low 100s at the time of writing
doesn’t look murderous by any
means should his attentions
be turned to handicapping
from now on. He seemed to
enjoy Plumpton’s uphill finish
on his debut over timber last
November, and he’d rate a fair
hope in a small 2m contest back
there.
2m2.5f Handicap Chase (Class 5)
It will be interesting to see
what further improvement
Heather Dalton can elicit
from her string this autumn
following a move from
Shropshire to Eddie Creighton’s
former yard in East Garston at
the start of last month. Much
encouragement will have been
derived from HATTON ROCK
- only her second runner since
the move - putting up his best
ever performance over jumps
in finishing third here, despite
some late jumps out to the right
that suggested a Taunton or
Ludlow might suit better. Keep
him, and the yard as a whole, in
mind in the coming weeks.
UTTOXETER, September 10 th
(hurdles: good to soft, chase: soft,
heavy places)
2m4f Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4)
PREDICTIVE was offloaded
by Paul Nicholls pretty quickly,
but he has looked far from a lost
cause in four runs at this track
for his current owner, prominent
Uttoxeter race sponsor Peter
Douglas and trainer Donald
McCain. Much the best of the
unpenalised runners in the
race, he probably didn’t achieve
quite as much on this occasion
as when a staying-on second
over two furlongs further here
in May (again on good to soft);
and with some better novices
starting to appear, this 113rated
performer will be of more
interest if turned out over that
longer trip in a 0-120 handicap
instead next time.
2m4.5f Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
The fall of SHANNON FALLS
four flights from home meant
there was no winner for new
trainer Nick Mitchell with
his first runner since leaving
Robert and Sally Alner, but
the grey Turgeon filly was still
in the process of running a
nice race at the time of her
departure. She was entitled
to have been as keen as she
was early on, having not seen
a racecourse for 10 months,
and connections have little
option but to go the handicap
route with her as she won both
hurdles and chases in France
as a 3yo. However, she proved
as able to win on good going as
on heavy during that previous
career with Guillaume Macaire,
and that versatility alone
should help her find something
this autumn whichever way the
weather goes.
Racing Ahead 23

Picture of the month
24 Racing Ahead

Sir Michael Stoute and Frankie Dettori celebrate after
Stoute won his first St Leger with Conduit
Racing Ahead 25

Ante-post guide
Paul Ferguson has been going through the form books
to get an early edge over the bookies for the ‘big four’
Get a head start on
the jump season’s
championship races
With the new
National Hunt
season upon us,
we’ll start our
ante-post coverage by taking
an early look at the four feature
contests at the Cheltenham
Festival in March — the
Champion Hurdle, the Queen
Mother Champion Chase, the
World Hurdle and, of course,
the Gold Cup.
Champion Hurdle
All four markets for the
feature races are headed by last
season’s winners, with Katchit
a 6-1 shot to land back-toback
Champion Hurdles. Alan
King’s diminutive five-year-old
defied the statistics to land
the Champion in March and
the gutsy and more likeable
individual loves Cheltenham.
A hugely impressive winner
of the Triumph Hurdle at the
2007 Festival, he is five from
six at the track, with his only
defeat coming at the hands of
Osana last December.
He relishes a truly run race and
hurdles extremely efficiently
and he is a worthy market
leader at this early stage.
Binocular comes next in
the betting at 7-1 and Nicky
Henderson’s Aintree winner
needs to match the exploits of
Katchit by defying the horrific
statistic of five-year-olds in the
Champion Hurdle. The French
import travelled really well in the
Supreme Novices’ last season
only to be surpassed by Captain
Cee Bee in the closing stages.
With the tighter track in his
favour at Liverpool, he put up a
hugely impressive performance,
slamming Triumph Hurdle
winner, Celestial Halo, barely
coming off the bridle. He is
open to plenty of improvement
when he returns and I think
he will be a major player in the
leading 2m contests this term.
However, quite whether he
appeals as a ‘value bet’ at this
stage is another matter, being
just one point bigger than a
proven Champion. I’d like to see
him hold his own against his
elders when he returns before I
consider backing him.
Greatwood and AIG winner
Sizing Europe was sent off
the 2-1 market leader for the
Champion in March, but was
virtually pulled up on the run
in, having looked all over the
winner coming down the hill.
The Irish challenger looked a
hurdler who could go right to
the top when disposing of dual
Champion Hardy Eustace in the
AIG Europe Champion Hurdle
at Leopardstown last January
and it could be too early to be
writing him off.
If he returns to his best in
the months ahead the 10-1
available could look a huge
price, but clearly all was not
right with him during and after
last season’s contest he needs
to prove his wellbeing before I
can consider backing him.
Osana finished runner-up to
Sizing Europe in the Greatwood
Hurdle last November,
before beating Katchit in the
boylesports.com International
Hurdle under an enterprising
Paddy Brennan ride.
He was getting 4lb for Katchit
that day and the form was
reversed on level terms in the
big one, but Osana still ran an
absolute blinder, battling back
after the last having looked
like fading at
“I’d like Binocular to
prove his worth against
his elders before a bet”
one stage. He
went on to
finish second
at Aintree,
when Al Eile
saw out the
2m4f trip
slightly better and, while he
won only once from four starts
last season, he did very little
wrong.
I really hoped that he would
go chasing this season, as he
looks a high-class 2m chaser
in the making and he has Arkle
written all over him. But, David
Pipe told me during the summer
that a decision had not been
made and I’m now starting to
think connections will give
him another chance to prove
himself top-class over timber.
He is currently a 12-1 shot and
needs to find a few pounds
Binocular
improvement over Katchit, as
well as having the new kids on
the block to contend with.
As well as owning Binocular,
J P McManus has another of
those new kids on his hands
in the shape of Punchestown
winner Jered who has long been
held in high regard by trainer
Noel Meade.
He only won once from his
first four attempts over hurdles,
but began to improve rapidly
after the turn of the year,
winning his last three starts.
The hat-trick was completed
in the Grade 1 vcbet.com
Champion Novice Hurdle at the
Punchestown Festival, where
he showed a fine turn of foot
under Tony McCoy.
The Champion Jockey may
well have to chose between him
and Binocular at some stage in
the coming months and if the
decision were up to me, I would
26 Racing Ahead

choose Nicky Henderson’s
charge at this stage.
The bookmakers don’t seem
to be taking any chances with
Jered at only 14-1 and that
comment also applies to Fred
Winter winner Crack Away Jack.
Emma Lavelle’s four-year-old
was well beaten by Binocular at
Ascot in January, but won both
subsequent starts including the
closing event on the opening
day of the Cheltenham Festival.
Ridden by Paul Carberry for
the first time that day, he was
held up plumb last and relished
coming off the past pace to
score impressively. He now has
to step up and he may also need
to improve to confirm form
with runner-up, Ashkazar, who
was ridden up with the pace
and was conceding 2lb to the
winner.
Paul Nicholls, by his own
admission has yet to train a real
Champion Hurdle contender,
yet he seems to have a few
bows to fire this season starting
with Pierrot Lunaire who is
yet another from last season’s
bunch of crack juveniles and is
another 14-1 chance.
After bustling up Binocular
in the Adonis at Kempton in
February, he was deliberately
saved for Aintree’s Grade 2 Top
Novices’ Hurdle and he put up a
hugely impressive performance,
putting Blue Bajan to the sword
by 14 lengths.
As with Binocular, he looks as
though tight tracks will suit and
it will be interesting to see which
of the pair develop physically
with Cheltenham being a more
demanding course.
The other two at the same
price are Captain Cee Bee and
Hebridean but there has to be
serious doubts about either
making the contest. The former
is expected to go chasing, with
the Arkle the aim, and the latter
is only a three-year-old who is
currently trained on the Flat by
Aidan O’Brien.
He finished third in a Group
3 at Goodwood when last seen
and he holds an entry in the
Group 1 Champion Stakes at
Newmarket later this month.
Obviously he would make a
very exciting recruit to hurdles
and the fact he is a gelding
(reportedly may have gone for
the Derby had he not been)
would lead you to believe his
future lies over jumps, but even
if he does go hurdling, he is
young enough to be aimed at
the Triumph Hurdle.
First and second in the ACC
Bank Champion Hurdle at
Punchestown in April, Punjabi
and 2007 Champion Hurdler
Sublimity, come next in the
betting both at 16-1.
Nicky Henderson’s runner
appeared to pinch the race
under a tremendous Barry
Geraghty ride and, following the
retirement of Mick Fitzgerald
and the announcement that
the Irishman will be riding for
the Seven Barrows handler this
season, the partnership is likely
to be renewed.
Geraghty was also aboard in
the Champion when he also
finished in front of Sublimity
when the pair finished third and
fourth, respectively. Both need
to show further improvement
when they return, with the
division looking stronger this
season, and of the pair Punjabi
would look most likely to head
in the right direction. He is still
only five and has won twice on
the Flat since his Punchestown
Grade 1.
Triumph Hurdle winner
Celestial Halo is Champion
Trainer Paul Nicholls’ second
four-year-old in the top 12 of
the Champion Hurdle market.
He was given a beautiful
ride by Ruby Walsh to defeat
Franchoek at the Festival, but
was then easily put in his place
by Binocular at Aintree.
Connections may believe he
could reverse form on a stiffer
track such as Cheltenham and
therefore would think the 20-1
makes some appeal. But, being
a stayer on the Flat (2nd in the
Melrose Stakes at York over
1m6f before finishing seventh
to Lucarno in the St Leger) I
think he has a big future over
further as a hurdler.
He is due to start off in the
‘Fighting Fifth’ at Newcastle at
the end of November and if he
is beaten there, Nicholls may
decide to step him up in trip.
He could be open to plenty of
improvement once stepped up
in trip and he could well develop
in to a World Hurdle type. If not,
the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle could
be his end of season target.
Yet another four-year-old
Ashkazar comes next at 25-1
and he is yet another who looks
best on a speedier track. Races
such as the Christmas Hurdle
and the Kingwell at Wincanton
Racing Ahead 27

“Rippling Ring is interesting
and could well develop into a
Champion Hurdler contender”
could be on his agenda and,
if he improves physically, he
undoubtedly has the natural
ability to take a hand come
March.
Eight horses are on the 33-1
mark with Blue Bajan arguably
the most interesting, following
a hugely impressive win in
Haydock’s Swinton Hurdle in
May. Prior to that, however, he
was well beaten at Cheltenham
and Aintree and therefore has
plenty of ground to make up on
Binocular and Pierrot Lunaire.
Of the remainder the most
interesting for me is another
Paul Nicholls trained horse,
the lightly raced Rippling Ring
who can be backed at 40-1.
He finished one place in front
of Blue Bajan in the Supreme
and was travelling as well as
anything coming down the hill.
He eventually faded in to fifth,
pulling muscles between his
front two legs, an injury that
prevented him running again.
A classy Flat horse in South
Africa, he was an impressive
winner on his hurdling debut at
Doncaster and is likely to start
the campaign off in handicap
company, possibly in the
Greatwood at Cheltenham in
November.
Though he has plenty to find
with the principals, if he were
to win a race like that he would
no doubt shorten considerably
for the Champion (as Sizing
Europe did last year). Nicholls
said Rippling Ring took time
to acclimatise when arriving
in Britain last season and he
expects plenty of improvement
this term, as do I.
Conclusion
Binocular appeals as the most
likely type from last season’s
classy crop of juveniles, but
being just one point bigger
than the current Champion
Katchit (who is a worthy market
leader), he doesn’t scream out
as great value. Of the bigger
priced horses Rippling Ring
is most interesting and could
well develop in to a Champion
Hurdle contender if he lands a
big handicap in the first half of
the season.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Master Minded was a most
impressive winner of the
Champion Chase in March and,
despite being beaten over 2m4f
at Aintree the following month,
he is going to be extremely hard
to beat over the minimum trip
this season.
He is likely to be aimed at the
Tingle Creek in December and
the Game Spirit in February en
route to defending his crown,
but at 5-4 he can’t be viewed
upon as a serious ante-post
proposition.
His Aintree conqueror Voy
Por Ustedes and leading novice
Tidal Bay come next at 6-1, but
“Glencove Marina
looked a natural over
fences in Ireland”
both are far from certain to be
aimed at this race. The former
is now likely to be campaigned
over further, starting in the
Old Roan Chase at the end of
this month and then the King
George on Boxing Day.
It appears as though the
Ryanair Chase will be his
Festival goal. Those same races
could be on the agenda of Arkle
winner Tidal Bay, who also won
at Aintree’s Grand National
meeting.
Prior to the Spring Festivals,
he had been far from fluent
over fences and his best early
season performances came
over 2m4f at Aintree and 2m5f
at Cheltenham in December.
A truly run 2m does look like
it suits Tidal Bay too, but quite
whether he has the pace to live
with Master Minded is another
matter. If he were mine, I’d be
campaigning over further, with
the trips ranging between 2m4f
and an easy 3m.
There doesn’t look any great
strength in depth in this
division however and, as the
old saying goes, “you should
never be afraid of one horse” so
Howard Johnson and Graham
Wylie may opt for one season
over the minimum trip.
Paul Nicholls is also
responsible for the next two in
the market, both of whom can
be backed at 16-1, Twist Magic
and Takeroc.
The former was a short priced
favourite for the Champion
Chase after he beat Voy Por
Ustedes in the Tingle Creek,
but never looked the same
horse afterwards,
despite winning at
the Punchestown
Festival. Of the
pair, the grey
Takeroc has more
improvement
in him and is an
interesting sort for the coming
months. A winner of both chase
starts in France, he routed
three rivals on his British debut
at Sandown in March before
giving Tidal Bay a scare at
Aintree.
He looked to have the Arkle
winner in trouble turning in and
may have gone for home a tad
too soon. His only subsequent
start came in the Scottish
Champion Hurdle, in which he
was held on to for longer, but
he failed to peg back outsider
Border Castle. He travelled
really well on this occasion and
there are sure to be plenty of
Master Minded
paydays for him this term, be it
over fences or hurdles.
Nicholls has stated he may
send Takeroc to Ireland to avoid
Master Minded and it would be
no surprise to me if he were
the biggest threat to his stablemate
come next March, unless
of course his owner wants to
aim at the Ryanair having won
over 2m4f in France.
It is hard to get too excited
about any of the other
bigger priced horses, with
the exception of Glencove
Marina (25-1) who looked an
absolute natural when making
it two from two over fences at
Leopardstown in January.
The son of Spectrum then
met with a setback that made
him miss the remainder of the
season and we have yet to hear
whether he will be fit for the
new campaign.
He also has the option of
racing over further, with that
28 Racing Ahead

impressive Leopardstown win
coming over 2m5f, but Willie
Mullins was considering the
Arkle before injury kicked in.
If he returns, he could well
have the Irish 2m – 2m4f
chase division at his mercy
and become a real ‘springer’ in
the Champion Chase market,
though I’d like to see him back
on the track before considering
backing him.
Conclusion
Master Minded will be
extremely difficult to beat all
season and, if he remains injury
free, will probably be odds on to
record back-to-back Champion
Chase victories in March.
But, taking 5-4 about a horse
some five months before a race
is very risky. You then have
to think whether or not it is
worth trying to find an eachway
alternative and, with the
division lacking any strength
in depth, this may not be a bad
thing to do in this instance.
Takeroc appeals as the most
likely improver and could be
the main threat to his stablecompanion
come next March,
so 16-1 appeals as a fair price at
this stage – I’d rather be backing
him at 4-1 to get a place, rather
than Master Minded to win at
5-4, at this very early stage.
World Hurdle
After an emotional third
success in this race from Inglis
Drever in March, it is hardly
surprising that the bookmakers
have Howard Johnson’s stable
star as the 4-1 favourite.
Despite his rising years, the
nine-year-old looked better than
ever last term, winning his first
three starts and his five-length
defeat of Blazing Bailey in the
Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham
in January was arguably the
staying performance of the
season.
Though he was beaten by
that rival at Aintree in April,
he remains the horse to beat
in this division, but it should
be remembered that he will be
10 come Festival time and it
is surely only a matter of time
before the years catch up with
this true hurdling great.
Kasbah Bliss finished runnerup
in the World Hurdle, having
previously won Haydock’s
Rendlesham, and being only
six, he looks the obvious young
improver.
He was not seen after
Cheltenham, but has raced
twice on the Flat in France
during August, winning a 2m
handicap last time. Francois
Doumen’s runners are always
well respected in England and
it would not be a surprise to
see him land one of the leading
staying hurdles in the coming
months, but he doesn’t exactly
scream value at just 5-1.
Alan King’s Blazing Bailey is
a 7-1 shot and he finished only
fourth in last season’s renewal,
so has ground to make up on
both Inglis Drever and Kasbah
Bliss.
As previously mentioned, he
reversed form with the former
at Liverpool, where the first
time blinkers worked a treat
and they also had the desired
effect at Punchestown three
weeks later, when he completed
a Grade 1 double.
He is another who is bound
to be thereabouts in the staying
events this term.
One of last season’s leading
staying novices Elusive Dream
comes next at 14-1 and he has
a similar profile to that of Inglis
Drever, as he was also a smart
Flat performer for Sir Mark
Prescott.
He relishes decent ground
and rounded off a fruitful first
campaign as a hurdler with
victories at Aintree and over an
extended 2m5f at Cheltenham.
The step up to 3m could bring
about further improvement and
it will be interesting to see how
he takes the step up in class.
Kazal finished third in this race
last term, but flopped behind
Blazing Bailey when expected
to go close at Punchestown,
and though he is as low as 10-1
for this with VC (generally a 16s
shot) it is far from certain that
he will remain over hurdles.
He has always been regarded
as a top-class chasing prospect
and he made his seasonal debut
in a Grade 1 novice chase last
season.
After running a massive race
and falling late on, he unseated
Davy Russell a couple of weeks
later, which meant connections
brought him back to hurdles.
I would be surprised if they
didn’t give fencing another try
and if he were to win first time
out, this race could well be off
the agenda.
Albert Bartlett winner
Nenuphar Collonges is next best
at 20-1 and he had previously
won at the track in a Grade 2
last December.
He could be another who
reverts to chasing, as he was
last seen over fences winning
off a lowly mark of 127 at
Uttoxeter in March 2007 and
he would look attractively
handicapped over fences. Alan
King will obviously place him to
best effect and, without being
disrespectful, I’m not quite sure
he has the class to land a World
Hurdle so handicap chases
could be the route for him.
As well as Elusive Dream, Paul
Nicholls has Mobaasher (20-
1) and Celestial Halo (25-1) as
possibles for this. The former
needs to improve, having won
a 3m handicap at the track in
April, but he is still only five
and probably hasn’t reached his
peak.
The latter of course won
the Triumph Hurdle and as I
pointed out in my Champion
Hurdle preview, I think he
could be open to any amount of
improvement once stepped up
to 2m4f and beyond.
The Galileo gelding, who
finished third to Irish Derby and
Coronation Cup winner Soldier
Of Fortune in the Chester Vase
just last May, is due to start off
his campaign in Newcastle’s
‘Fighting Fifth’ at the end of
November and I’m half hoping
Racing Ahead 29

“Inglis Drever is getting on in
years and now is the time to
think about taking him on”
he is beaten for pace, so
connections up him trip. A race
like the 2m5f Relkeel Hurdle
at Cheltenham in December
could prove ideal and he could
then be right in the thick of the
World Hurdle market.
There is of course always the
chance that he will win the
‘Fighting Fifth’ and prove quick
enough to race over 2m – I’m
sure Mr Nicholls knows a little
bit more about the horse than
me!
Of the remainder, Aintree
winner Pettifour (25-1) is to
be given a chance to develop in
to a World Hurdle candidate,
while the likes of Fiveforthree,
Venalmar, Trafford Lad,
Forpadydeplasterer and The
Tother One (all smart novice
hurdlers last term) are all likely
to go novice chasing.
This quintet should be kept a
close eye on if remaining over
timber. Nigel Twiston-Davies’
Pettifour is three from three
over timber and remains open
to plenty of improvement and,
while he looks an embryonic
chaser, he deserves a chance
against the proven top stayers.
Another to note if remaining
over timber is Tazbar (25-1)
who looked the pick of last
season’s staying novices at one
stage, but had his bubble burst
behind Pettfour at Aintree and
was subsequently only runnerup
to Lodge Lane at Perth.
I have long been a huge fan
of this horse however and he
should not be written off just
yet. Again, he looks as though
his long-term future lies over
fences, but he won three from
five over hurdles last season
and also deserves a crack at the
better stayers when he returns.
Finally, Aigle D’Or is another
who should not be forgotten,
despite the fact that the
bookmakers seem to have – he
is currently not quoted in any
lists for this.
Nicky Henderson’s classy
French Flat performer
impressively won his first two
starts over timber, only to
flop badly at the Cheltenham
Festival when favourite for the
Ballymore Properties. He will
probably start off in handicap
company, but could still make
up in to a high-class staying
hurdler.
Conclusion
Inglis Drever is getting on in
years so it could be time to take
him on, with Kasbah Bliss and
Blazing Bailey looking the most
obvious pair to step up to the
plate. But, at the prices, neither
makes great ante-post appeal.
Of those at bigger prices,
Celestial Halo is one to monitor
very closely.
Should he be beaten at
Newcastle in November and
“A turnaround in the
Gold Cup form is very
hard to imagine”
Paul Nicholls subsequently
indicates that he will be stepped
up trip, the 25-1 would be very
tempting.
Gold Cup
Unbeaten now in nine chase
starts Denman looks another
rock-solid ante-post favourite
for Champion Trainer Paul
Nicholls and, like Master
Minded, you can only imagine
him shortening as the season
goes on, assuming he remains
free of injury.
He beat stable-companion
Kauto Star by seven lengths
in last season’s Gold Cup and,
unless the ground was riding
on the quick side (something
that is almost certain never to
happen at future Cheltenham
Festivals, due to excessive
watering with horses’ welfare
at stake) it is hard to envisage a
reversal in form.
The son of Presenting is again
likely to begin his campaign in
the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup
at Newbury in November when
he will have to concede lumps of
weight to all of his opponents.
Described as being on the
fat side still by his trainer in
September, this could prove
his toughest test of the season,
as he is then likely to frighten
away the opposition in races
such as the Lexus and AON
Chases.
As low as 4-6 with some
major firms, Denman is a best
priced 11-10 with Paddy Power
and Sporting Bet, but again,
like Master Minded, it can
prove very
costly backing
a horse antepost
at those
sort of odds.
Kauto Star
is second best
in most lists,
with his price varying from 4-1
to 7-1 (with Ladbrokes). At this
stage he is again likely to pose
the biggest threat to Denman,
but, having watched the Gold
Cup re-run on a number of
occasions, a turnaround in form
seems hard to imagine.
He will have big race
opportunities earlier in the
season when he is likely to be
hard to beat in the King George
and the Ascot Chase and it
would not be inconceivable
to think connections may opt
for the Ryanair Chase, should
Denman continue to look
difficult to beat.
Takeroc
Neptune Collonges completed
a famous 1-2-3 for Nicholls
in the Gold Cup in March and
he went on to land his second
successive Punchestown
Guinness Gold Cup. Currently
a 12-1 chance for next year’s
Gold Cup, it is again difficult
to believe he could overturn
Denman, or Kauto Star for
that matter, so he seems plenty
short enough.
That is not to say that they
grey won’t continue to pay his
way during the coming months
and I’m sure Nicholls will place
him to best advantage.
Arkle winner and last season’s
leading 2m novice chaser Tidal
Bay is the first non Paul Nicholls
trained horse in the market and
is 20-1 for Gold Cup glory.
The seven-year-old has yet to
race beyond 2m5f and, though
he promises to be better over
3m, his stamina has to be
proven.
There has to be a chance that
Howard Johnson will give Tidal
Bay a chance to prove he has
the pace to cope with the best
two-milers and, should he stick
him up in trip, an easy 3m such
as the King George and then
30 Racing Ahead

the 2m5f Ryanair Chase could
be more suitable targets.
Glencove Marina (25-1) is a
similar sort, though you have to
add to the mix that he missed
the end of last season through
injury. He did look a high-class
novice last term and is bred to
get a trip, but he is not devoid
of pace and Willie Mullins could
start him off over shorter trips
when he returns to full fitness.
It must be noted, however,
that both the 2m and the 3m
chase divisions in Ireland lack a
real superstar at present and this
is potentially the most exciting
prospect – it is very much hoped
he retains all of his ability.
Eight horses come next on 33-1
and this group includes another
Paul Nicholls trained horse in the
shape of Big Buck’s who looked
far from straightforward in the
early part of last season.
Twice a winner at Newbury, he
looked a different proposition
when stepped up to 3m at Aintree
in April and he impressively took
the Grade 2 Mildmay Novices’
Chase. He is set to take on
stable-mate Denman off 10
stone in the Hennessy and, if he
is to become a Gold Cup possible,
he will probably have to bustle
up the Gold Cup winner on his
reappearance. Nicholls seems to
hold this French five-year-old in
high regard and it would not be
a surprise to see him in the Gold
Cup field come next March.
Royal & SunAlliance winner
Albertas Run finished only
third to Big Buck’s at Liverpool
but shows his best form at
Cheltenham, winning both chase
starts at the track.
He was an impressive winner
at the Festival, but there has
to be a suspicion that was a
weak renewal and he will need
to improve when he returns.
He, too, could start off in the
Hennessy, as connections must
be tempted to take on Denman
off a lowly weight.
Albertas Run beat Air Force
One in the Reynoldstown at
Ascot in February and Charlie
Mann’s chestnut disappointed in
fifth behind the same rival at the
Festival.
The apple of his trainer’s eye,
Air Force One went on to land
a Grade 1 at Punchestown in
April and he is yet another who
looks in need of a couple of stone
improvement to get in to the
Gold Cup shake up. Again, his
connections must be tempted
by the thought of taking on a
not fully wound-up Denman in
receipt of plenty of weight in the
Hennessy – there is every chance
the Hennessy could be a classic
renewal this year.
The other 33-1 shots are Our
Vic who will be aimed at the
Ryanair Chase, Exotic Dancer,
My Way De Solzen who seemed
to lose the plot last term,
Mossbank who could also be
aimed at the Ryanair Chase, and
Grand National winner Comply
Or Die who is another set to kick
off his campaign in Newbury’s
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup.
Of this quintet, Exotic Dancer
would be the most interesting if
bouncing back to his best, but
he didn’t run up to form in last
season’s Gold Cup or behind Our
Vic and Kauto Star at Aintree. The
application of blinkers, or some
sort of headgear, could bring
about a change in fortunes.
Of the remainder of those
quoted Snowy Morning (40-1)
is arguably the pick. The Grand
National third went on to finish
second to Neptune Collonges at
Punchestown and finally began to
get his jumping together towards
the end of the season. He could
well be the leading Irish hope for
the Gold Cup in March.
One final horse to note is
the fragile, but hugely talented
Money Trix. Nicky Richards’
grey won his only chase start
at Newcastle last season, when
returning from a long lay-off, and
Richards confirmed to me during
the summer that everything was
well with his lightly-raced eightyear-old.
A soft ground specialist, he is
likely to start off in a graduation
chase up north. The handicappers
assessment will then determine
whether connections opt to
head down the handicap route,
or whether they are forced in to
open company, but his trainer
holds him in the highest regard
and, given his fragile limbs, if he
is fit come March he could well be
allowed to take his chance in the
Gold Cup.
He isn’t even quoted by any
bookmakers, but be sure to keep
an eye on him when he returns
in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
Denman is going to be very
hard to beat if remaining fully
fit, but he makes little antepost
appeal at odds around the
Evens.
Of the bigger priced horses,
Snowy Morning would appeal as
the one most likely to shorten
during the months ahead.
Round-Up and October’s Advice:
The two hurdle races look
more wide open than the
chases at this stage and, while
the bookmakers seem to have
World Hurdle market sorted
(with the most likely successors
to Inglis Drever towards the
head of the betting), there is an
interesting sort at a big price in
the Champion Hurdle market.
That horse is RIPPLING RING
who is worth a small each-way
interest at 40-1. He clearly has a
fair bit to find, but he is a much
bigger price than the bunch of
juveniles who have to follow
Katchit in overcoming the age
stat, and should he go and win a
race like the Greatwood Hurdle
he would shorten considerably.
With Master Minded and
Denman short, but both looking
rock-solid, you have to decide
whether there is any each-way
value in the Queen Mother and
Gold Cup markets. With the lack
of strength in depth in the 2m
chase division, the Champion
Chase appeals more from an
each-way point of view.
The horse that stands out is
another Paul Nicholls’ inmate,
TAKEROC, who could well be
the main danger to stablemate
Master Minded. Backing him at
16-1 now means we’ll have him
at 4-1 for a place and I wouldn’t
be at all surprised if he were
around 4-1 to win the race in
five months time.
RIPPLING RING
Champion Hurdle
Half-point e-way at 40-1 (Stan
James, Bet Direct, Sporting)
TAKEROC
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Half-point e-way at 16-1 (Stan
James, Bet Direct, Tote, Boyles)
Racing Ahead 31

Irish jumps preview
Tony Keenan continues our countdown to the national
hunt season with his preview of the action in Ireland
Get your woolies on,
the proper action
is about to kick-off
Most racing fans look
ahead to the winter
with a lot more
optimism than
your average citizen; rather than
lament the loss of long evenings,
summer holidays and sunny
days, we eagerly await the return
of our jumping heroes.
This is especially the case in
Ireland where national hunt
racing continues to fixate the
interest of the racing public much
more than its flat equivalent. For
whatever reason, flat racing just
doesn’t do it for the Irish racing
public and with the notable
exceptions of the Galway Races
– an institution of its own – and
the Derby fixture, most Irish
summer meetings are relatively
poorly attended.
Conversely, and seemingly
illogically for anyone who
associates a day at the races with
fine weather, the best attended
cards in Ireland are often staged
at wet and windswept tracks
like Fairyhouse, Leopardstown,
Navan, Naas and Punchestown
between October and April.
One jockey who we won’t see
as much of around these venues
in 2008-9 is Barry Geraghty as
news emerged in mid-August
that the Meath man, in tandem
with Tony McCoy, will take up
the role of stable jockey to Nicky
Henderson.
My understanding of the
arrangement is that McCoy
will ride the majority of Seven
Barrows runners around the
gaffs during mid-week as well
as retaining the JP McManusowned
rides while Geraghty will
do most of his riding at the big
Saturday fixtures, similar to the
understanding that currently
exists between Paul Nicholls and
Ruby Walsh.
This represents a positive move
for Geraghty at a point when his
career could go either way as he’s
been in the wilderness lately, with
his number of winners dropping
steadily from 109 in 2003 to 48
last term.
He’s also been without a
position at a major yard with
his role at the Harrington stable
becoming more unclear by the
month; the trainer seems content
“Geraghty remains one
of the leading lights of
the weighing-room”
to rely on the likes of Andrew
Leigh and Robbie Power who,
while decent jockeys in their own
right, couldn’t touch an in-form
Geraghty.
Though he’s had a few critics,
Geraghty remains one of the
leading lights of the weighroom
for me and his main gifts
– strength in the saddle and an
unerringly positive riding style –
have continued to be in evidence
recently.
He galvanised the keengoing
Finger Onthe Pulse to
Cheltenham success in the
Jewson as that horse’s stamina
ebbed away up the final hill and
was again seen to great effect
aboard Tasman at the Galway
Races.
The 8yo has won four of his 23
starts which is hardly a blinding
strike-rate but is unbeaten in
three starts with Geraghty up
and his bold jumping was cleverly
used by the jockey to put the
more suspect fencing of his rivals
to the test at Ballybrit.
In Geraghty’s absence, Davy
Russell can be expected to pick
up a few more rides though he’s
hardly been missing out in the
numbers game recently; the 28year-old
jock has become the
hired gun in the Irish weigh-room,
the jockey of
choice for the
smaller trainer
when they’ve
got one ready.
An amazing
53 individual
trainers
combined to give him a total of
126 winners last season, with no
single yard supplying more than
11 winners.
Russell’s emergence as toplevel
pilot was confirmed at
Cheltenham, though it took a
while for his class to shine through
as he endured a nightmare in the
first two days.
A bumper Friday card brought
better news though as he
recorded a double aboard Naiad
Du Misselot and Tiger Cry,
showing great mental toughness
in the process and his ascendance
to the top table was confirmed
We’ll be seeing a bit
less of Barry Geraghty
in Ireland this season
at Punchestown when he ran
perennial champion Ruby Walsh
to five winners in the jockeys’
race.
Among the younger jockeys,
there are a number of names
to watch out for this winter.
Robbie McNamara, a 3lb claimer
attached to the Weld yard, has
shown himself a very capable
rider on many occasions, not
least aboard Majestic Concorde
in the GPT at Galway.
Brother to Andrew McNamara,
he is of a similar tall build and
may encounter weight problems
in the future but if the youngster
can keep them under control he
has as big future.
Another claimer with links to
Dermot Weld is Mikey O’Connor,
though his more immediate
ties are with the Colm Murphy
stable.
For a jockey with a 5lb allowance,
O’Connor is exceptionally strong
32 Racing Ahead

in a finish and few will out-battle
him if he’s got the right horse
under him in a close one.
Of the others, Andrew
Thornton and Mark Bolger are
worth keeping an eye on.
The former has ridden just
seven winners in his short career
but he’s already impressed me
with his ultra-positive while the
latter, attached to the Harrington
yard, has never been shy about
getting on about his business
early in the race.
On the training front, Willie
Mullins became Champion
Trainer for the second time at
Punchestown and given the
conveyor belt of talent that
exists at Closutton, it would be
no surprise to see him retain his
title this season and perhaps even
develop a Paul Nicholls-esque
domination in his homeland.
At the risk of stating the
obvious, Mullins is a brilliant
trainer who excels with different
types of horses, whether it be
in extracting wins from old
stagers like Adamant Approach
or winning Grade 1 races at the
Cheltenham Festival, year-in
year-out.
He rarely plots one up for a
handicap but in winning four of
the five handicap chases at the
Punchestown Festival, Mullins
showed he’s no mug in that
sphere either.
Much of Mullins’ success is
down the pipeline of high-class
bumper horses that pass through
his yard each year but it is the
trainer’s skill that has owners
sending him such horses and with
the likes of Cousin Vinny likely to
uphold his strong position in this
department, we can expect the
winning run to continue.
The man Mullins usurped at the
head of the trainers’ league was
Noel Meade and the Castletown
handler’s season followed a
similar pattern to previous years:
unstoppable before Christmas,
patchy afterwards.
Between September and
December, he registered 55
winners and was hitting the
mark 22% of the time while in
the next four months he had just
17 winners, with his strike-rate
dropping below 10%.
Meade trains his horses to peak
early in the season and there is
certainly money to be made by
following his yard pre-Christmas
but I’d be very wary about
continuing that support into
the New Year and especially at
Cheltenham where only Nicanor
has won for him in recent times.
No outstanding young trainer
stands out among the current
crop but I’ve been increasingly
impressed with the way Leonard
Whitmore has managed his small
string of late.
Brave Right has been his
standard bearer and the 8yo
has been a model of consistency
– winning five of his 21 starts
including the valuable Ballymore
Anniversary Hurdle and placing
in a number of top handicaps
such as the Pierse Hurdle and
Galway Plate.
Brave Right typifies the way
Whitmore trains his horses; they
all seem tough, consistent and
progressive and it would be no
surprise to see an animal like
Glacial Promise step up to the
mark and continue the yard’s
good run.
Perhaps the most new
development to the Trainers
Championship is Paul Nicholls’
recent claim that he will make
a concerted effort to win titles
on both sides of the Irish Sea,
a threat that must worry the
home contingent as the Ditcheat
handler was eighth in last season’s
race with over €420,000 in prizemoney
despite having just seven
runners here all year.
His chasers dominated the
Grade 1 races in Ireland with
Denman, Neptune Collonges,
Taranis and Twist Magic all
winning top-level contests and
the fact that Oslot landed the
Galway Plate in impressive
fashion suggests that Nicholls is
unlikely to confine his raids to
pattern races.
Of the three remaining Grade
1 chases run in Ireland last term,
The Listener won two – the
John Durkan and the Hennessy
– while only Mansony registered
a win for the home team at
the Leopardstown Christmas
meeting.
The Irish staying chaser
cupboard looks particularly bare
at present with only one Irishtrained
horse among the top ten
in the Gold Cup betting at the
time of writing.
That horse is Glencove Marina
and he took up the mantle of
the ‘Great White Hope’ of Irish
chasing when he obliterated
subsequent Cheltenham
winner Finger Onthe Pulse at
Leopardstown last February.
Willie Mullins’ charge is
supremely talented but is coming
back from an injury and may
Racing Ahead 33

“It looks a bleak story in the 2m
division with the Irish well below
the standard of Master Minded”
not even see a racetrack this
season so I’d wait for further
information on his wellbeing
before considering an ante-post
bet.
It’s a similarly bleak story in
the 2m division with the likes of
Mansony and Schindlers Hunt
looking well below the standard
set by Master Minded.
The fact that two of Ireland’s
top 2m chases, the Tied Cottage
and the Newlands, went the way
of glorified handicappers Don’t
Be Bitin and Maralan confirms
the paucity of talent in this
sphere at present.
Thankfully the outlook on the
novice scene is a lot brighter and
a sweep of the first four places in
the Ballymore Properties suggests
that Ireland has plenty of decent
staying chasing prospects.
The runner-up Venalmar is
possibly the most interesting,
not least because he’s trained
by Mouse Morris, a past master
with young chasers who trained
War Of Attrition to the minute
to win the Gold Cup in 2006.
The winner Fiveforthree is of
course of interest but I can’t say
I’m too enthused about Willie
Mullins’ decision to run him twice
at the Punchestown Festival.
A number of horses, not
least Mullins’ own Davenport
Milenium and Back In Front,
have left their careers behind by
running back so quickly at that
meeting and I’d want to see how
Fiveforthree has gotten over his
exertions before backing him.
Either way, Mullins is blessed
with a very strong hand in this
division with Cooldine looking
an excellent prospect.
The initial plan was to go
chasing with him last season
but connections changed their
mind and decided to put him
over hurdles, a decision that
was handsomely rewarded when
he won five races on the bounce
including a pair of Grade 2s. A
big galloping type, he looks the
ideal type for fences but I’d also
keep an eye on Chasing Cars, the
horse he narrowly defeated to
land the second of his big wins at
Fairyhouse.
Jessica Harrington’s 6yo
gelding had looked a talented
type in bumpers before taking a
while to find his feet over hurdles
but he proved a revelation as
soon as more positive tactics
were adopted.
His style of racing should be
even better suited to chasing and
he’s an intriguing prospect if he
can translate his hurdles form to
the fences.
One of the more interesting
stories in the summer despatches
was J.P. McManus’ decision to
send Supreme Novices winner
Captain Cee Bee over fences.
He’s a fascinating recruit but
one has to question why he is
taking this route – surely it is
more to do with his owner having
“Sizing Europe stays
over hurdles rather
than go chasing”
both Binocular and Jered ready
for a Champion Hurdle, rather
than any innate scope he has for
chasing?
Captain Cee Bee is coming late
to chasing at eight and is totally
American-bred and all the ability
in the world won’t be any good to
him if he hasn’t got the aptitude
for this game.
A smart hurdler who won’t be
going chasing in 2008-9 is Sizing
Europe who despite noises to
contrary will remain over hurdles
this season.
It seems a very wise move as
the 6yo never really delivered
on him immense potential last
season and he is the one horse
I’d consider at standout bet for
Cheltenham at this early stage.
Officially the best hurdler in
training last season, he is proven
at the track and while he has
had injury problems, the double
figure prices currently available
certainly compensate for those
doubts.
The 2m hurdling scene isn’t
at its strongest just now with
Harchibald looking spent force
and I suspect Sublimity may
struggle now that he’s been
transferred to the new yard of
Robbie Hennessy.
Philip Hobbs may have said
that training horses just means
galloping them up a hill twice a
day but I suspect there’s more to
it than that and John Carr did an
excellent job in his handling of
the 2007 Champion Hurdler.
Sublimity was a problem horse
and Carr was placed him expertly,
always seeming able to get him
ready for the big
day and it will be
quite an ask to
expect a rookie
trainer to do the
same.
The loss of his
stable star is
harsh on Carr and
in a cruel footnote to the story
it’s worth remembering that the
Maynooth trainer said he didn’t
see any notable upturn in the
number of horses in his care
following that big win in 2007.
Let’s hope a change in fortunes
comes his way soon because he
certainly deserves it.
With Blazing Bailey leading
home Refinement in the big 3mile
Hurdle at Punchestown, the
Irish staying division looks weak
and while Kazal and Sweet Kiln
are tough and admirable, their
limitations at the top level have
been well exposed by now.
Nicanor
The primary interest in this
division may well prove to be the
continued participation of Hardy
Eustace and the return of Brave
Inca, two old warriors who have
fought many a battle.
34 Racing Ahead

With their speed on the wane,
it’s like that both will be upped
in trip this season and while I’m
not convinced that either truly
stays 3m (they may have got
slower with age but this doesn’t
necessarily mean they’ve now got
more stamina) there should be
ample opportunities for further
success in races over intermediate
trips like the Hatton’s Grace and
the Ascot Hurdle.
The novice scene could well be
dominated by Cousin Vinny who
achieved the unprecedented by
landing a Champion Bumper
double.
The most impressive aspect
of his Punchestown win was
the way he improved lengths
beyond the horses he’d beaten
at Cheltenham and he is a very
exciting prospect.
Zaarito was the big Irish fancy
for the Cheltenham race before
finishing a slightly unlucky
third but I’m not convinced he’s
the best novice prospect; the
vibes leading up to the Festival
suggested he was a real ‘now
rather than later’ horse and his
weak physique may not stand up
to the rigours of hurdling.
You knew it had to be a slow
news week when our papers were
filled with ‘Hebridean goes for
the Champion Hurdle Shocker’
in the middle of the summer
and realistically I can’t see Aidan
O’Brien getting too agitated
over a training the gelding for
Cheltenham.
That said, he is a 112-rated flat
horse and has proven his ability
to handle ‘summer soft’ ground
so his progress will be worth
watching.
One horse that has already
proven himself a decent novice is
Hurricane Fly, trained by Willie
Mullins.
The 4yo followed up an easy
win at Punchestown in May with
two excellent runs at Auteuil and
with his novice status still intact,
he sets a good standard.
Dermot Weld’s Endless
Intrigue is another decent type
with some good bumper form
and while even the best summer
novices generally can’t cut it
when the real jumpers return in
winter, Caim Hill, who has won
his last four starts could be an
exception.
Among the handicappers, I’d be
keen to keep Hear The Echo on
my side for the Grand National.
The Gigginstown-owned gelding
won the Irish equivalent in
March and that race has been the
key Aintree trial in recent years.
He blitzed his opposition
there and is the type get into
the Liverpool race with a decent
weight. Over shorter trips,
Finger Onthe Pulse has to be of
interest and Tom Taaffe’s 7yo
could have the Paddy Power as an
early target.
A winner over course-anddistance
in the Jewson, he is
extremely well-suited by going
left-handed and the only horses
to beat him that way around are
Grade 1 winners Iktitaf, Nicanor
and Glencove Marina.
For handicap chases on righthanded
tracks, watch out for
Brave Right who ran a cracker in
the Galway Plate before failing
to see out the final couple of
furlongs.
A return to two and a half miles
will suit him well but remember
he needs to go clockwise – he’s
never won in 8 starts left-handed
but is yet to miss out on the four
in 13 starts right-handed.
Over hurdles, Clounreask is
one to watch out for.
Eric McNamara does very
well with his handicappers and
this one landed what was an
exceptional maiden hurdle for the
venue when winning at Wexford
last October.
His subsequent run at Limerick
is easily forgiven as the ground
was against him but he bounced
back with a good run in late
August and should be able to win
off 110.
Joanna Morgan’s Raise Your
Heart continues to look a welltreated
horse if he can learn to
settle better in his race while the
best piece of handicap hurdle
form around last season was
without doubt the Pierse Hurdle.
The winners of the Ballymore
Anniversary Hurdle, the County
Hurdle and the Galway Hurdle
all emerged from the first six in
the Leopardstown race and it is
perhaps the seventh Deutschland
who is of most immediate
interest.
Willie Mullins’ 5yo spent the
spring running over the wrong
trip and has now dropped to a
mark of 121 which is the same as
his last winning mark.
His figures (flat and jumps)
on soft ground or worse read:
411227 and he is certainly on a
mark that can be exploited.
Racing Ahead 35

Irish Flat report
After setting the scene for the new jumps season, Tony
Keenan now turns his attentions to the Irish Flat stars
Duke looks ready to
conquer America
after brilliant season
Autumn is the
culmination of the flat
racing calendar; the
horses that have fought
through the spring and summer
will either have their supremacy
confirmed or be usurped by new
heroes of the hour. Over the next
few weeks, these 10 Irish-trained
horses look sure to be involved in
the hero-making process of this
time of year and this is my take
on what we can expect.
Duke Of Marmalade
Possible Target: Breeders Cup Turf
(Santa Anita, October 25th)
For a horse that had won just
one race (and that a Curragh
maiden at odds of 4-6) prior to
2008, ‘The Duke’ hasn’t had a bad
year winning five times at Group
1 level.
Some have questioned what he
has really achieved in beating the
likes of Phoenix Tower and Papal
Bull with seemingly little in hand
but you can’t crib his toughness
and consistency and my strong
suspicion is that he’s an idle type
that does nothing in front.
As such, he doesn’t bottom
himself out by winning a race by
a wide margin and can maintain a
high level of form and he should
add to his quintet of top level
victories before the year’s end.
Following his late defection
from the Irish Champion Stakes,
the Arc was mooted as a potential
target but with the ground in
France likely to be on the slow
side the Breeders Cup Turf could
be a more suitable option. 12f
on what is likely to be a sound
surface should be right up his
street and the Danehill colt can
confirm himself the best turf
horse in the world before retiring
to stud.
Henrythenavigator
Possible Targets: QE II Stakes
(Ascot, September 27th), Breeders
Cup Mile (Santa Anita, 25th)
Henrythenavigator was
dominant in the early part of
the season in landing a quartet
of Group 1 wins but the bubble
seemed to burst in the Moulin
last time and he’s one I’d keen
to be against for the rest of the
year.
He needs to hear his hooves
rattle and the ground was
understandably put forward
as a reason for his defeat at
Longchamp but his 3yo rivals,
in particular Raven’s Pass, have
been getting progressively closer
to him as the season’s gone on
and he may not be improving at
this point.
He also faces the prospect of
facing the very smart French pair
Tamayuz and Goldikova (who
beat Henry comprehensively
in the Moulin) and I strongly
suspect that the Gallic duo
will be fighting for the title of
Champion Miler rather than the
dual Guineas winner.
Listen/You’resothrilling
Possible Target: Sun Chariot Stakes
(Newmarket, October 4th)
When high-class juvenile fillies
disappear for much of their 3yo
season, the obvious inclination
is to suspect the worst but the
reappearance of You’resothrilling
and Listen, fourth and fifth
behind Lush Lashes in the Matron
Stakes, was very encouraging
and Aidan O’Brien has plenty to
look forward to with the pair this
autumn.
Both were very smart at two,
You’resothrilling winning the
Cherry Hinton and Listen taking
the Fillies Mile at Ascot; the
former is likely to prove best at
a mile while
“New Approach will be
a major player in France
if he gets the weather”
the latter may
well need 10f
and beyond to
show her best.
Ballydoyle
have done well
to get these
horses back to the racetrack and
it will be interesting to see if they
remain in training at four.
New Approach
Possible Target: Arc De Triomphe
(Longchamp, October 5th)
New Approach has probably
had more column inches written
about him than any horse in
training this season, with his
‘on-again, off-again’ Derby saga
providing the story of the year.
Whatever your feelings about
his trainer’s PR skills, the 3yo
remains a hugely talented animal,
though that talent was not
particularly evident in his most
Duke Of Marmalade
recent win the Irish Champion
Stakes.
Beating Traffic Guard by less
than a length isn’t form to get
carried away with but it’s worth
remembering that New Approach
did nothing easily as a juvenile
and he’s a type that just keeps
winning rather than winning
impressively.
If the formbook is to be
believed, Zarkava is going to take
the world of beating in the Arc
but testing ground would bring
New Approach into the equation.
He is almost totally ground
dependant and looked as if he
were running on hot coals in the
Juddmonte and he will be a major
player in France if the weather
turns things in his favour.
Rip Van Winkle
Possible Targets: Prix Jean-
Luc Lagardere (Longchamp,
October 5th), Dewhurst Stakes
(Newmarket, October 18th)
Form students will want to
have their laying claws into Rip
Van Winkle when he next runs as
the form of his first two outings
has worked out poorly but the
visual impression created has
36 Racing Ahead

een striking and sometimes
you just have to go with your gut
feeling.
The Galileo colt has been ridden
like a really good horse on both
his starts and possesses a pushbutton
acceleration that was in
evidence in the Tyros Stakes at
Leopardstown.
He’s at the head of the betting
for next year’s Guineas and Derby
but he may prove best over 10f in
time and races like the Eclipse
and Irish Champion Stakes could
be on his agenda next term.
This season he’s likely to be
aimed at one of the backend
Group 1s and a decent surface
appears important to him; Aidan
O’Brien has been keen to avoid
testing ground with him.
Sea The Stars
Possible Target: Beresford Stakes
(Curragh, September 28th)
Sea The Stars lacks nothing in
breeding with all seven of his
siblings having earned black
type; some of those are much
better than others, with their
abilities ranging from dual Derby
winner Galileo down to the
quirky Cherry Hinton.
Early indications are that John
Oxx’s 2yo will finish up at the
upper end of the talent spectrum
as he improved plenty from his
debut to land a hot maiden at
Leopardstown last time.
The second and fourth have won
subsequently and Sea The Stars
beat them with plenty in hand,
travelling sweetly throughout
though still looking that he’d
improve for experience.
The National Stakes had been
mooted as his next target but
connections have decided to hold
off for the Beresford Stakes where
the mile trip should be right up
his street as he looks a middledistance
horse of the future.
Septimus
Possible Target: Melbourne Cup
(Flemington, November 4th)
It must be difficult to place to
the two best stayers in Europe
when both are in the same stable
but Aidan O’Brien has done an
excellent job in keeping Yeats
and Septimus apart in 2008
and the pair have both enjoyed
unbeaten seasons at the time
of writing. Septimus has been
lightly raced this term which
has been brought about by a
number of factors – some minor
setbacks, the abandonment of
the Ebor Meeting and the desire
to keep him and Yeats apart – but
he made up for lost time when
landing his first Group 1 in the
Irish St. Leger by amazing 13l.
That form confirms my belief
that he’s the champion stayer
in waiting for 2009 but the
Melbourne Cup is on the agenda
in the meantime and he looks a
major player if arriving Down
Under in the same form.
His shortened domestic season
can only be viewed as a positive
in the light of a tilt at Australia’s
banner race and though he will
have plenty of weight, that’s
because he’s a classy performer.
Shimah
Possible Target: Cheveley Park
Stakes (Newmarket, October 3rd)
Shimah made a spectacular
start to her career at the Curragh
in June when landing a pair of
6f events by an aggregate of 7l
in impressive fashion and her
reappearance when second in the
Moyglare wasn’t shabby either.
The lack of a recent run may
well have told on that occasion
and her breeding (by Storm
Cat and related to a number of
sprinters) suggests that the 7f on
soft ground would have stretched
her stamina.
She looks a real 2yo type and
given that opportunities for 3yo
sprinters are notoriously thin
on the ground, connections will
be keen to win a group race with
her this season. Cutting back to
6f in Cheveley Park is unlikely to
be a negative and a sound surface
would also be an advantage for a
filly with a smart turn-of-foot.
Soldier Of Fortune
Possible Target: Arc De Triomphe
(Longchamp, October 5th)
The jury was still out in relation
to Soldier Of Fortune at the start
of the season: is he a bona fide
top-rank performer or simply
a very talented mud-lark, the
only horse that really handled
the heavy ground at the Curragh
when he won the Irish Derby? His
two starts in 2008 have proved
inconclusive in this regard; a
good winner of the Coronation
Cup at Epsom, he was beaten
by the runner-up Youmzain at
Saint-Cloud and hasn’t been seen
since.
With both Macarthur and
Getaway flopping subsequently,
the value of the Epsom form is
questionable and the fact he even
ran there in the first place hardly
confirms his status as a star; his
trainer rarely sends anything
other than stayers of the future
like Yeats, Scorpion and Septimus
for that race these days.
Aidan O’Brien suggested he
would run in the Preis Van Baden
in September and even though
he missed that, the idea that he
would run in a continental Group
1 is hardly a ringing endorsement
of his abilities.
To me, Soldier Of Fortune
will need the mud hock-deep to
win the Arc, and even with the
ground in his favour, an absence
of over 3 months is not ideal for
what will be one of the hottest
races of the season.
Stage Manager
Possible Target: Cesarewitch
(Newmarket, October 18th)
With a flat mark of just 73,
there’s every chance Stage
Manager won’t make the cut for
the second leg of the Autumn
Double but either way he’s one to
keep on side in the final months
of the season as the 6yo is on a
mark that can be exploited to win
a big staying handicap.
An improved performer
over hurdles this summer,
Tony Martin’s gelding was an
impressive winner of a Galway
handicap hurdle that saw his
hurdles mark rise to 125 and
while that sets his flat rating in
obvious relief, he’s also got some
smart form on the level too.
His third place run behind
Queen Althea and Power Of
Future (beaten 3-4l and given
plenty to do) has worked out
well with the winner having
won a valuable amateur riders’
handicap since and now rated
11lbs higher and the second
having risen 16lbs in the weights.
A sound surface is important to
Stage Manager – all 4 of his wins
have come on surfaces described
as good or faster – but granted his
conditions, he will be hard to stop
when stamina is at a premium.
Racing Ahead 37

Days at the races
Colin Phillips has a decent day out at Hereford, where the
weather was decidely on the traditional side for a jumps card
Braving the ‘breeze’
to enjoy a day of
summer jumping
Can a meeting held
at the beginning of
September be termed
‘summer jumping’?
Can the weather we’ve been
having in August and early
September be called summer?
Whatever, Hereford was
the venue and the date was
September 3rd.
In the days leading up to the
visit, the weather we had been
experiencing in south Wales,
with only one dry day in about
a fortnight, make that two, I
managed to mow our lawn twice,
had been atrocious.
So, I was amazed that when I
checked the expected going at
Hereford, a couple of days before
the meeting was due to take
place, the word “FIRM” appeared
in the description.
This had disappeared by the
day of the meeting, and the
official going was given as
“GOOD”. Being the disbeliever
that I am, I still had my doubts,
but a quick walk down the final
furlong revealed an excellent
cover of grass (no surprise there
then!), but the amazing thing
was, that the grass was dry, my
shoes confirming that fact.
If you are thinking of
visiting “The Classic Country
Racecourse”, this is how they
describe themselves with a
sign above the weighing room,
it is accessible by train in just
over an hour from Cardiff, 90
minutes from Birmingham, two
hours from Manchester but the
best part of three hours from
Paddington. There are no buses
to the course, which is a fair old
hike from the station, but there
are taxis waiting outside and
it cost me £7, including tip, to
make the journey.
Northern Racing have taken
the decision to make the course
into just the one enclosure, and
admission to all parts will cost
you £14 midweek and £17 at
weekends.
The course is nicely laid out,
the parade rings, winners’
enclosure and weighing
room tucked away compactly
behind the stands. The stands
themselves don’t give the
“I was amazed to see
the word ‘firm’ in the
pre-meeting going”
greatest of views; they could do
with being higher and stepped
more steeply, especially as there
was no big-screen in attendance.
There are nice grassy areas in
front of the stands that are ideal
for picnics and allow you a closeup
view of the racing. If you like
being near to the action, you can
get an excellent and very closeup
view of the last hurdle.
There is a long horse-walk
which allows you every
opportunity to see how the
horses are behaving exiting the
paddock and, of course, on their
return after the race.
There are three classes of
eateries: Silks Restaurant
where a table for the day, with
a window seat and an excellent
view of the racing, a threecourse
lunch and afternoon tea
will set you back £45 (£60 if you
want to make sure and book
the package in advance), The
Winning Post for a sit-down hot
meal, dish of the day, Chili Con
Carne at £5.95 and The Paddock
Bar for the usual bar-snacks.
Butty Bach, a burnished
gold premium ale, full bodied,
smooth and satisfying, produced
by the excellent Wye Valley
Brewery, with an A.B.V of 4.5%,
is available in both The Winning
Post and Paddock
Bar, can’t tell you
about Silks, didn’t
go in there! (for
those who are
interested in such
things, Simon?...
I only had the one
half, new image).
Time to have a look at the
horses. The weather forecast,
when I checked before leaving
home, was for light showers and
a gentle breeze from the west.
They had the first part right but
the “breeze” made me think that
Hurricane Gustav had lost his
sense of direction.
High winds and fillies, the
first race was a juvenile hurdle
confined to those of the gentler
gender (hah), can be a dangerous
cocktail but in fairness the
whole bunch of them behaved
quite well. I was expecting to
see a collection of whippet-like
Has Harry just heard that
a pint of Wye Valley is only
two nicker in the Merton?
failures from the flat, but a
number of them had the size
for the jumping-game; Auction
Belle, Blush Tone and Xaravella
all had scope.
Miss Mactango seemed to be
the only one not liking the wind,
she was very fresh, bucking and
kicking her way around the preparade
ring, she quietened down
after being saddled. Surprisingly,
to me at least, Orbital Orchid
was heading the market at 7-2,
with only Auction Belle, of the
three that I had picked out,
attracting any money at 11-2.
There was some very erratic
jumping on show, the favourite
and Auction Belle, among
others, were very novicey.
The race was won, nicely, by
Kijivu, who had already been
placed over obstacles, and that
experience seemed to make the
difference, as I didn’t notice her
make any mistakes. She was
returned at 11-2 after being
supported from 7-1. I don’t
think there were any horses to
be taken out of this.
A very competitive 17-runner
handicap hurdle over 2m 4f. was
next up and I struggled for a
paddock-pick and decided it was
a race best left alone.
40 Racing Ahead

Followers of the champion
jockey would have been happy
with the result, a winner at 4-1
for Charge It, owned by JP Mc
Manus, trained by Jonjo O’Neill.
The champ recovered after losing
his iron at the first, and then
surviving a blunder at the last,
the horse running on well to win
comfortably by six lengths.
The third was another
impossible event, a selling
handicap chase, and an unusual
race to see these days, with,
again, 17 runners. Definitely
not a betting opportunity for
me. I didn’t bother to make
any paddock notes, I didn’t feel
there was a lot of point, most
of them being very exposed and
moderate. Perhaps the exception
to that was Flying Jody a 9yo
who was only making his 14th
appearance and his first for
Henry Daly.
The market seemed to seize on
those facts and sent him off the
4-1 favourite. They collected, but
they were very lucky. Glimmer
Of Light had the race won as
he jumped the second last but
he unseated his rider at that
obstacle, one wag suggested that
the jockey had been blown off
by the wind, but it came to light
that his saddle had slipped.
I thought the auctioneer, at
the subsequent sale, must have
had his tongue in his cheek
as he described the horse as
having won the race easily, but
Nick Shutts thought that it was
worth spending 6,000 guineas to
acquire him.
There were 14 runners for the
handicap chase over 2m 3f. and
again there were no standouts
in the paddock. Eventually, after
some deliberation, I went for
Meet The Legend, trained by
Nick Williams, a legend himself
with chasers, who was available
at 15-2.
Went up into the stands to
watch the race and found myself
standing next to Mr Williams’
assistant-trainer, now there’s a
coincidence. I congratulated her
on the horse’s appearance and
we fell into conversation.
It seems the horse has had
problems with his jumping and
she was just hoping for a clear
round. Things didn’t go right,
even before the off there was a
problem with a broken stirrup, a
“bollocking” due for Daryl Jacob
there, I was told.
They eventually got that sorted
and the horse was jumping
alright, if just a touch hesitantly,
until he ran right into the
bottom of the seventh fence and
decanted his rider.
The race resulted in more joy
for the McManus/O’Neill/McCoy
supporters, as Different Class
(does anyone remember a horse
of the same name, and owned
by someone called Gregory Peck,
running in the Grand National
many moons ago?) held off the
challenge of Rousseau (winner
of this race last year) by a length
and change, at the very nice
odds of 17-2.
The next was what the course
commentator, Iain MacKenzie,
referred to as the feature event,
not really sure why, unless he
was angling for a free Jaguar
from the sponsors, ‘Hatfields
Jaguar Worcester’!
It was a novice hurdle over
2m 4f with a strong favourite in
Charlie Mann’s, Stellenbosch,
who was trading around even
money.
I wasn’t taken with him in the
paddock and went instead for
the rather exposed Winter Star
from the Evan Williams yard.
This 8yo was having his eighth
run since early July, he has been
very consistent, winning three
and being placed in the rest,
but still looked the best of this
bunch.
With the favourite never
getting into the race, the result
was never really in doubt after
Winter Star took up the running
after the third and went on to
win easily by 12 lengths at 9-2.
Charlie Mann was called to the
Stewards’ Room after the race,
presumably to give some sort of
explanation for Stellenbosch’s
poor run.
Another mission impossible
if you were trying to find the
winner of the 16-runner novices
handicap hurdle. Mattaking,
who, if you remember, caught
my eye on my visit to Worcester
last month, again looked a
picture, and again I was sucked
in. Jimmy McCarthy made a lot
of use of him, too much in my
opinion, leading and then going
clear three out, but he was done
with two out and faded back into
fifth.
The winner of the race, Faith
And Reason, owned by the
charismatic Barney Curley,
didn’t seem the most popular
of winners; his return to the
winner’s enclosure was met with
rather muted applause.
Perhaps punters had played
up their McCoy winnings on
the well-backed Edgefour, who
didn’t run well and was pulled up
at the last.
We had a bumper to close
the card and as one Harry
Findlay had a runner and was in
attendance, it was no surprise
to see it trading around the even
money mark.
Harry was in The Winning Post
earlier in the day, and was just
about to start on his chilli, when
I asked him, “is this horse, Adeus
Ayrton, the next Denman?” he
wasn’t sure of that, but he said
that if the horse handled the
preliminaries alright he would
probably win.
He looked the part in the
paddock, where, as usual with
a bumper field, there were all
shapes and sizes, but I’m not
sure that he looked the 140,000
guineas part.
Talking about shapes and sizes,
Ossie’s Star was very big, very
backward and very fresh. The
favourite was held up at the back
and was a bit keen but made
headway towards the leaders as
they left the back straight, but
any chance he had was probably
lost, when he stumbled and lost
his momentum.
He recovered to take second
place 2f out, but could never get
to the runaway winner, Silver
Kate, the excitement caused
to the connections by this win
suggests she wasn’t un-backed.
The favourite will obviously
improve for the run and another
who might be made a note of, is
the well-bred (for the jumping
game) third, Knockiterra Lass,
who was staying on well at the
finish.
Taxi back to town, popped into
Bar 28 of the Merton Hotel just
in time for ‘happy-hour’ and a
pint of Wye Valley Bitter for £2,
now that’s what I call value.
Racing Ahead 41

Super stats
David Renham with some of his excellent
methods for making the most of favourites
Keep a keen
eye on your
portfolio
Although I have never
been a fan of backing
favourites on a regular
basis, I am sure many
people do. Why people regularly
back favourites is probably down
to the fact that by backing them
they will pick more winners than
by using most other methods.
Unfortunately, very few people
seem to be able to make money
out of backing horses that head
the market. This could be down
to the fact that the majority
of punters find it difficult to
distinguish easily between a
favourite that is good value
compared to one of poor value.
To gain an “edge” when betting,
you need to obtain value odds for
the selection you are backing
– this is true regardless of price,
and if you can get 11-8 about a
horse whose true chance is even
money, then you have obtained
that necessary value.
Over the past few years I have
become much more interested
in racing systems and system
research. Back in 2006 I
developed the idea of using a
portfolio of systems – essentially
rolling several systems into one
package.
Indeed, on one of my websites
www.punterprofits.com I have
created a portfolio of National
Hunt systems that has made a
good long term profit; and also
has made a decent profit since
going “live” to members.
The reason for this portfolio
approach was to mirror what
many stock market traders have
done for many years, which
essentially spreads the risk.
We all have seen successful
racing systems go through bad
runs, and hence this approach
is designed that if a system or
systems are going through a
losing spell, then hopefully the
other systems will balance out
the results.
Most punters prefer a
smoother ride with their betting
– they don’t want major ups and
downs. Well, they are happy with
the “ups” of course! The portfolio
approach should give punters
this smoother ride with shorter
losing runs. This consistency is
important IMO for the mental
side of betting.
In this article my aim is to try
and find systems that could be
placed in a portfolio of systems
for favourites in flat racing.
I am hoping that combining
favourite systems within a
portfolio means the “ride” will
be smooth with a high strike rate
coupled with short losing runs.
Now the problem with any
system based on favourites is
that it is difficult to make decent
profits as the margins at that end
of the market are very tight.
My idea therefore was to find
systems that may not have
that many qualifiers a year, but
when combined with several
other systems would potentially
produce a fair profit on a yearly
basis.
My aim is to eventually have
at least 20 systems to put into
the portfolio – I currently have
Keep an eye on those big-field
races at Newmarket
14 systems in the portfolio and I
am working on the others as we
speak. For this article I will share
a selection of them with you:
System 1 – 2yo debutants from
Newmarket maidens
The rules are thus:
1 Favourites
2 2nd lifetime start
3 Ran in 2yo maiden at Newmarket
on debut (with 8 or more runners)
The results have been as
follows:
Bets 1109
Wins 525
Strike Rate 47.3%
Profit +£910.30 (to £10 stakes)
ROI +8.2%
This system is a logical one
– a good percentage of the best
juveniles (2yos) start their life off
at Newmarket and for them to be
favourite on their next start, they
clearly must have impressed.
The reason for the eight-runner
plus rule on their debut is simple
– there was enough competition
and also there were enough
runners for a properly run race.
A strike rate close to one win
in two is pleasing and although
returns only average out at
around 8%, one has to remember
that all profits are quoted to
starting price – something that
most punters should be able to
“beat” in this age of SP+, Betfair
and Betfair SP.
As I stated earlier, it is difficult to
produce big returns on favourites
purely due to market forces.
For the record a horse qualifies
regardless of age – indeed over
20% of the qualifiers were 3yos
who had just the one start as a
2yo (at Newmarket).
System 2 - 2yo nurseries
The rules:
1 Favourites in 2yo nurseries
2 Won LTO
3 Top 3 in weights
4 Male horses only
5 Distance - 5 to 7f
6 Days off track – less than 7 weeks
7 No blinkers / visor
The results have been as
follows:
Bets 482
Wins 183
Strike Rate 38%
Profit +£875.90 (£10 stakes)
ROI +18.2%
This system focuses on
2yo nurseries which are 2yo
42 Racing Ahead

handicaps. There are a few more
rules to this system but they are
all logical. Rule 2 focuses on last
time out winners – 2yos tend to
hold their form as well as any age
group so this rule is a sensible
one.
In terms of rule 3, you may have
heard the old adage “back the
top weight in a nursery”. There
is plenty of truth in this and
horses at the top of the weights
definitely outperform horses at
the lower end of the weights.
Rule 4 focuses on male runners
only – males tend to outperform
females at all levels and is an
often used filter for systems.
The distance rule avoids longer
races for 2yos – longer races for
2yos (1 mile or more) tend to
less predictable. Rule 6 makes
sure the horse has not been off
the track for too long, while any
trainer that resorts to putting
blinkers on a 2yo (rule 7) is
fighting a losing battle.
The strike rate of 38% is
excellent considering these are
handicap races – indeed the raw
statistic for winning favourites
in nurseries is 25% so the system
has improved that by 13%. Add
to that a return of over 18% and
we have a system that looks well
worth adding to the portfolio.
System 3 - 3yo+ maidens
Rules are as follows:
1 Favourites in 3yo+ maidens (NOT
odds on)
2 Turf races only
3 Age 3
4 Must have finished 2nd at least
once in last six starts
The results have been as follows:
Bets 895, Wins 369, Strike Rate
41.2%, Profit +£860.00 (to £10
level stakes), ROI +9.6%
A simple system that is best
employed in turf races, as all
weather maidens of this type of
generally poor quality affairs and
prone to the odd shock.
3yos have a significant edge
over their older rivals in 3yo+
maidens – this makes sense
really as if a horse has yet to win
by the age of 4, the chances of
it winning a maiden is very slim
indeed. The fourth rule is an
obvious one showing the horse
has been capable of going close
to winning.
Considering the system ignores
odds on shots (very hard for odds
on shots to be value), the strike
rate of over 41% is very good.
Returns are just under 10%, and
another solid enough system for
the portfolio.
The final system I with share
with you is based on older
claiming races:
System 4 – 3yo+ / 4yo+ claimers
Rules are:
1 Favourites in 3yo+ / 4yo+
claimers
2 Ran in last 7 days
3 Top 3 in weights (inc. joints)
4 Male horses only
5 Age 8 or younger
The results have been as
follows:
Bets 429
Wins 198
Strike Rate 46.2%
Profit +£721.60 (to £10 level
stakes)
ROI +16.8%
This is another fairly simple
system exploiting horses that are
fit from a recent run and are near
the top of the weights.
Higher weighted horses in
claimers tend to be the better
animals as the more weight a
horse carries, the more it will
cost to claim the horse after the
race.
The male horse rule is used
once again and there is an age
‘cap’ implemented as well.
Considering most punters
avoid betting in claimers like the
plague, a strike rate of 46.2% is
excellent as are returns of close
to 17%.
So there you have it – 4 of the
20 systems that will eventually
go into the portfolio – now the
question you should be asking is
will it work?
History suggests it will and my
gut feeling says it will – however,
time of course will tell!
Ferdy Murphy trained DIVERS (4yo)
All winners & all from the same sources as Divers!
Racing Ahead 43

Yesterday’s Heroes
Graham Buddry recalls the time when racing clubs first
got going and one their first star performers
Hopscotch gave a
big thrill to a cast
of thousands
Not all that long ago
racehorses could be
co-owned by no more
than a syndicate of
12 people. Although this spread
the sometimes exorbitant
costs it was still beyond the
means of the vast majority
of enthusiasts. Then, with a
change in policy, racing clubs
sprang up everywhere which
allowed hundreds of people to
co-own a string of racehorses
for a mere fraction of the cost.
Some of the earliest and
certainly the most high
profile were BRTB, Full Circle,
Gymcrack Thoroughbreds and
Pipe/Scudamore Plc.
The Martin Pipe and Peter
Scudamore racing club had
a membership of 2,800
shareholders for the two years
the club was set to run before a
dispersal sale with almost every
member a true racing fan who
wanted to get even closer to the
action, for it was abundantly
clear that it was not going to be
a profit-making exercise.
This did not matter to myself
or the other racing enthusiasts
but famously one shareholder,
not fully grasping the concept,
buttonholed Martin Pipe after
the AGM one year and enquired
why he had invested all the club
funds in racehorses!
Pipe/Scudamore plc managed
to purchase quite a good number
of horses to run under National
Hunt rules and notched an
excellent 24 winners from
61 runners in the first year,
returning a 32% strike rate
and another 40 winners the
following season.
With the runners, and indeed
the winners, spread all over
the country club members had
every opportunity to see their
striking black and white colours
in action and there was always
a good attendance whenever a
club horse ran.
This provided an excellent day
out and many happy memories
for what in reality was quite
a modest outlay for such an
experience as cheering your
own horse home, as despite the
total number of shareholders,
with so many runners the
number of “owners” at each
meeting was relatively few.
Admittedly some of the club
horses were not of the best
quality but everyone had their
favourite, from the one-eyed
Ardour to the more prolific
winners Tri Folene, Ultra Violet,
Walk of Life, Rein De Tout,
Wonderine and Tom Clapton.
Martin Pipe had even managed
to buy in two very useful horses
of which the ill-fated Silver
King had the ability to go right
to the top of the hurdling tree
as his destruction of modest
opposition at Newton Abbot
and his easy win in the Gerry
Feilden Hurdle at Newbury
bore witness to.
It was, however, the other
acquisition that achieved ever
lasting fame and will forever be
remembered by all who owned
a small part of her with pride.
Bred and owned by the Queen,
Hopscotch was by Dominion
out of Tartan Pimpernel, by
the Derby winner, Blakeney
but failed to show anything
in five races on the flat before
Pipe snapped her up for 11,500
guineas at the Queen’s annual
dispersal sale.
Although quite small, Pipe fell
in love with her the moment he
“The only horse to win
six races at Cheltenham
in one season”
saw her and in
their first day
on the gallops
Scudamore
fully agreed
that she had
some real
class. It was
not long before Hopscotch
started rattling off a string of
impressive victories.
We catch up with Hopscotch
at Cheltenham racecourse on
26 January 1991 in the twomile
Food Brokers hurdle for
four-year-olds.
With nine victories already
this season, Hopscotch was
installed the firm favourite
at 8-11. Last time out, again
at Cheltenham, there had
been something amiss with
Hopscotch as she was beaten
into third place at odds of
One of the most famous
racing club horses,
Elite’s Soviet Song
1-6 by Master Dancer and
Marlingford, a horse she had
already thrashed earlier in the
season.
In previous runs she had
beaten other top juveniles such
as Bookcase on two occasions,
Crystal Spirit by 20 lengths
and Oh So Risky by 30 lengths.
Hopefully today she would now
be back to her brilliant best.
Master Dancer had some fair
form but it’s a firm measure of
how “off” Hopscotch must have
been in their last encounter
that at the exact same weights
and with that six-length victory
to his name, Master Dancer was
still allowed to start at 20-1 in
the field of seven.
Second favourite at 9-4 was
Toby Balding’s Native Tribe
who had finished fourth to
Hopscotch on his hurdling
debut before scoring a facile
victory at Sandown Park and
connections were bullish about
44 Racing Ahead

his chances today. The consistent
Marlingford re-opposed again
but although never having
finished out of the frame, he
wasn’t seriously expected to
trouble the favourite.
Muse, trained by David
Elsworth, was a very interesting
proposition.
Owned by the many members
of White Horse Racing Ltd,
there was a lot of friendly
banter between the two groups
of owners for while Hopscotch
had already shown what she
could do on a racecourse, Muse
was making his debut.
Muse, however, was very
highly thought of by Elsworth
and subsequent events over the
years would see Muse finishing
second in the Sun Alliance
hurdle at the Cheltenham
Festival, beating Morley Street
around Ascot and finish a
close up sixth in Flakey Dove’s
Champion hurdle.
Today he was third favourite
although his odds of 16-1
looked remarkably generous.
Of the other two runners,
Tomahawk was making his
debut and Souter’s Hill was
racing on the back of two very
modest wins, having finished
behind Marlingford on his first
run over hurdles.
As the tapes rose Peter
Scudamore sent Hopscotch
into the lead by just a length
from Muse, Master Dancer and
Tomahawk with Marlingford,
Souter’s Hill and Native Tribe
evenly spaced out in Indian file
behind.
At the second flight of hurdles
Hopscotch had doubled her lead
to two lengths from Muse and
Tomahawk while Master Dancer
lost a few places and Native
Tribe was running poorly at the
back of the field.
While Hopscotch flicked
over the next, Muse showed
his inexperience by flattening
the hurdle and pecking badly
although he appeared to lose
no ground in doing so.
By the next Muse had closed
Hopscotch down to just a length
with Tomahawk, Souter’s
Hill and Marlingford all close
enough if good enough while
Master Dancer was running in
snatches and Native Tribe was
becoming detached at the rear
of the field.
At the fifth Muse went to join
Hopscotch but a slight mistake
still left him a length adrift
of the fluent jumping leader,
Souter’s Hill was running
well in third and then a gap
appeared before Tomahawk and
Marlingford, Master Dancer
running on again and a long
way back to Native Tribe who
would soon be pulled up.
Over the next and running to
the top of the hill and Hopscotch
still led with Muse closing the
distance to just half a length,
Souter’s Hill was coming under
pressure a few lengths back in
third with Tomahawk closing
him down then five lengths back
to Marlingford and a similar
distance to Master Dancer.
Swinging down the hill
Hopscotch picked the pace up
and Muse sent another hurdle
flying as he was joined by
Tomahawk. Round the home
turn with just one flight left to
negotiate the cheers went up
for the favourite.
A group of White Horse
Racing owners were getting
very animated about their
special interest in Muse
while a similar group of Pipe/
Scudamore Racing owners
cheered vociferously for their
own runner. Into the home
straight and Scudamore kicked
Hopscotch on again to go
five lengths clear, Muse was
running on again in second
with Tomahawk, Souter’s
Hill, Marlingford and the fast
finishing Master Dancer in a
line of four just two lengths
further back.
As they came to the last
Hopscotch was six lengths to
the good and popped it easily
while Muse, under strong
riding, gave chase as best he
could for a tired horse, Master
Dancer staying on well in third
with the others dropping out of
contention.
By the line Hopscotch had
been pushed out with just
hands and heels to record a 10
length victory from the game
Muse and Master Dancer.
As Hopscotch was being led
in a group of around 20 of the
owners excitedly made their way
to the winners enclosure, on an
incredible high and animatedly
reliving the race now that the
nerves and tension had gone.
Another similar sized group
of owners awaited Muse with
obvious pride and pleasure in
his showing.
It was truly something special
to be a proud part owner of such
a wonderful and resilient mare,
even more special to cheer
home a winner at Cheltenham
and then wait in the hollowed
ground of the winners enclosure
for her to be led in.
The day and memories were
fully complete when my wife,
Mignon, was chosen by the
racing manager, Barry Simpson,
to collect the winning trophy on
behalf of the club.
By the end of that wonderful
season the darling of the Pipe/
Scudamore plc racing club had
plundered 11 first prizes and
was rightly rated as one of the
top five juveniles of the season.
Perhaps more importantly, a
considerable number of people
who could never afford to own
a racehorse of their own had
experienced what would have
been beyond them if it were not
for such racing clubs as this.
The Mecca of National Hunt
racing have a Hall of Fame
adjacent to the course where
all the great horses which have
graced Cheltenham down the
years are immortalised and
alongside the likes of Golden
Miller and Arkle can be found
the name and story of the only
horse to have won an incredible
six races at Cheltenham in
one season; our own dear
Hopscotch.
Racing Ahead 45

Champions Day
Malcolm Boyle casts his critical eye over the key pointers for
the meeting that takes the October spotlight at Newmarket
Stats that can turn
in a profit on the
Flat season’s big day
Eleven-year study of Champions
Day at Newmarket:
Challenge Stakes (3YO+--seven
furlongs)
Prices of win and placed horses
(beaten favourite details in
brackets):
2007: 20/1—9/1—6/1 (11/4 beaten
favourite trained by J. Fanshawe)
2006: 9/2*—7/1—8/1
2005: 20/1—9/4*--8/1
2004: 11/2—6/1—5/1*
2003: 16/1—11/2—8/1 (10/11 beaten
favourite—R. Charlton)
2002: 7/1—4/1*--33/1
2001: 20/1—14/1—6/1 (5/2 beaten
favourite—Sir Michael Stoute)
2000: 20/1—14/1—7/2 (11/4 beaten
fav—Saeed Bin Suroor)
1999: 8/1—8/11*—7/1
1998: 11/2—11/2—7/2*
1997: 9/2—9/2—33/1 (9/4 beaten
favourite—J. Dunlop)
Vintage performances:
3YO: 4 winners @ 20/1—20/1—
20/1—9/2—8 placed—52 unplaced
4YO: 2 winners @ 16/1 & 7/1—9
placed—19 unplaced
5YO: 3 winners@ 20/1—11/2—9/2—
2 placed—20 unplaced
6YO+: 2 winners @ 8/1 & 11/2—3
placed—17 unplaced
Selected trainer stats:
Saeed bin Suroor: 2 Winners @
11/2 & 9/2—6 Placed horses
Sir Michael Stoute: 1 Winner @
8/1—3 placed horses
J. Gosden: 2 Winners @ 9/2* &
9/4—1 Placed horse
B. Hills: 3 Winners (all at 20/1)—1
Placed horse
Gerard Butler: Winner @ 7/1—1
Placed horse
Effects of the draw:
2007: 4-3-2 (15 ran—gd to soft)
2006: 11-3-8 (16 ran—gd to soft)
2005: 6-1-5 (15 ran—gd to soft)
2004: 9-13-7 (12 ran—soft)
2003: 10-2-5 (11 ran—gd to firm)
2002: 3-13-15 (17 ran—good)
2001: 10-4-9 (14 ran—gd to soft)
2000: 7-8-3 (9 ran—gd to soft)
1999: 10-4-6 (10 ran—good)
1998: 4-1-3 (10 ran—good)
1997: 4-3-6 (12 ran—good)
Dewhurst Stakes (2YO colts/
geldings—seven furlongs)
Prices of win and placed horses
(beaten favourite details in
brackets):2007: 6/4*—14/1—3/1
2006: 11/8*—3/1—9/1
2005: 9/2—8/11*--15/2
2004: 9/2—15/2—10/1 (9/4 beaten
favourite—B. Hills)
2003: 33/1—11/4*--7/1
2002: 25/1—100/30—11/4*
2001: 4/6*--13/2—8/1
2000: 7/4*—7/1—40/1
1999: 4/6*—14/1
1998: 25/1—20/1—(13/8 beaten
joint favourites—A. O’Brien & H.
Cecil)
1997: 11/8*—9/2
Selected trainer stats:
J. Bolger: 1 winner @ 6/4*
A. O’Brien: 1 Winner @ 4/6*—7
placed horses
B. Hills: 1 Winner @ 4/6—2 Placed
horses
R. Charlton: 3 Placed horses
Effects of the draw:
2007: 5-3-4 (10 ran—gd to soft)
2006: 4-9-5 (15 ran—gd to soft)
2005: 8-3-5 (8 ran—gd to soft)
2004: 4-10-1 (9 ran—soft)
2003: 11-12-6 (12 ran—gd to firm)
2002: 2-10-16 (16 ran—good)
2001: 3-8-2 (8 ran—gd to soft)
2000: 6-3-7 (10 ran—gd to soft)
1999: 2-5 (5 ran—good)
1998: 3-6 (7 ran—good)
1997: 1-7 (7 ran—good)
Champion Stakes (3YO+--ten
furlongs)
Prices of win and placed horses
(beaten favourite details in
brackets):2007: 7/2—5/1—12/1 (9/4
beaten favourite trained by Sir M.
Stoute)
2006: 7/2—20/1—9/4*
2005: 25/1—11/1—25/1 (9/4 beaten
favourite—A. O’Brien)
2004: 12/1—20/1—6/1 (3/1 beaten
favourite—Saeed Bin Suroor)
2003: 11/1—33/1—25/1 (9/4 beaten
favourite—J. Oxx)
2002: 8/1—5/2*--9/2
2001: 3/1*—11/1—66/1
2000: 5/1—10/11*—20/1
1999: 5/1—7/2*—20/1
1998: 6/1—8/1—6/5*
1997: Evens*—6/1
Vintage performances:
3YO: 5 Winners @ 25/1—12/1—6/1—
7/2—3/1*—7 places—43 unplaced
4YO: 4 Winners @ 11/1—8/1—5/1—
5/1—8 placed—28 unplaced
5YO: 1 Winner @ Evens*—6
placed—16 unplaced
6YO+: 1 Winner @ 7/2—no placed
runners—7 unplaced
Selected trainer stats:
Barry Hills: 3 Winners @ 20/1—
12/1—8/1
Sir M. Prescott: 2 Winners @ 6/1
& 5/1
A De Royer-Dupre: 1 Winner @
7/2—1 Placed horse
J-C Rouget: 1 winner @ 7/2
Sir M. Stoute: 2 Winners @ 5/1 &
Evens*—3 Placed horses
A. Fabre: 2 Placed horses
Saeed Bin Suroor: 5 Placed horses
David Elsworth: 2 Placed horses
Effects of the draw:
2007: 5-10-8 (12 ran—gd to soft)
2006: 2-4-6 (8 ran—gd to soft)
2005: 13-4-9 (15 ran—gd to soft)
2004: 9-4-10 (11 ran—soft)
2003: 3-10-11 (12 ran—gd to firm)
2002: 4-11-7 (11 ran—good)
2001 1-2-6 (12 ran—gd to soft)
2000: 3-4-11 (15 ran—gd to soft)
1999: 10-3-8 (13 ran—good)
1998: 5-1-7 (10 ran—good)
1997: 1-2 (7 ran—good)
Rockfel Stakes (2YO fillies---seven
furlongs)
Prices of win and placed
horses (beaten favourites in
brackets):2007: 10/1—4/1—9/1 (11/8
David Junior (right) won the
Champion Stakes in 2005
beaten fav trained by M. Jarvis)
2006: 9/4*—7/1—25/1
2005: 20/1—4/1—8/1 (11/4 beaten
favourite—Sir M. Stoute)
2004: 3/1*--7/1—7/1
2003: 12/1—11/4*--14/1
2002: 13/2—4/1—12/1 (7/2 beaten
favourite—R. Charlton)
2001: 8/1—11/2—9/2 (3/1 beaten
favourite—D. Loder)
2000: 25/1—7/1—12/1 (9/4 beaten
favourite—D. Loder)
1999: 7/2**—9/1—6/1 (7/2 joint
beaten favourite—J. Dunlop)
1998: 10/1—25/1—20/1 (9/4 beaten
favourite—H. Cecil)
1997: 9/4*—25/1—40/1
Selected trainer stats (at least two
horses in the frame):
B. Hills: 2 Winners @ 10/1 & 3/1*—3
Placed horses
R. Hannon: 1 Winner @ 25/1—1
Placed horse
J. Bolger: 1 Winner @ 9/4*—1 Place
horse
M. Tregoning: 1 Winner @ 25/1—1
Placed horse
J. Gosden: 1 Winner @ 7/2**—1
Placed horse
A. O’Brien: 1 Winner @ 10/1—3
placed horses
Effects of the draw:2007: 5-8-9 (10
ran—gd to soft)
2006: 1-14-9 (14 ran—gd to soft)
2005: 5-6-2 (14 ran—gd to soft)
2004: 1-10-7 (8 ran—soft)
2003: 2-1-7 (10 ran—gd to firm)
2002: 5-1-4 (11 ran—good)
2001: 1-7-5 (10 ran—gd to soft)
46 Racing Ahead

2000: 16-14-15—16 ran—gd to sft)
1999: 1-12-4 (12 ran—good)
1998: 5-14-13 (14 ran—good)
1997: 5-8-4 (12 ran—good)
Cesarewitch Handicap (3YO+-eighteen
furlongs)
Prices of win and placed horses
(beaten favourite details in
brackets): 2007: 14/1—33/1—6/1**—
25/1 (beaten 6/1 joint favourite
trained by L. Cumani)
2006: 9/2*—25/1—100/1—25/1
2005: 10/1—20/1—50/1—25/1 (3/1
beaten favourite—N. Henderson)
2004: 16/1—10/1**--50/1—33/1
(10/1** beaten joint favourite—A.
Balding)
2003: 12/1—33/1—50/1—8/1 (7/1
beaten favourite—M. Channon)
2002: 12/1—16/1—66/1—12/1 (11/2
beaten favourite—Mrs M. Reveley)
2001: 14/1—66/1—33/1—66/1 (7/2
beaten favourite—Sir M. Prescott)
2000: 11/1—40/1—9/2*—10/1
1999: 7/1—50/1—25/1—100/1 (5/1
beaten favourite—M. Pipe)
1998: 11/1—14/1—13/2—10/1 (5/1
beaten favourite—M. Grassick)
1997: 16/1—5/1*—12/1—10/1
Vintage performances:
3YO: 1 winner @ 11/1—No
places—27 unplaced
4YO: 2 Winners @ 14/1 @ 9/2*—10
placed—102 unplaced
5YO: 1 Winner @ 16/1—12 placed—
66 unplaced
6YO: 4 Winners @ 16/1—14/1—
11/1—10/1—7 placed—52 unplaced
7YO+: 3 Winners @ 12/1—12/1—
7/1—4 placed—69 unplaced
Selected trainer stats:
‘Pipe Stable’: 2 Winners @ 25/1 &
12/1—2 Placed horses
‘Balding stable’: 2 Winners @ 14/1
& 7/1—2 Placed horses
M. Johnston: 2 Winners @ 16/1 &
11/1—1 Placed horse
J. Dunlop: 2 Placed horses
D. Weld: 2 Placed horses
Weight carrying performances:
Horses handicapped at 9-1 or less
have claimed thirty nine of the
forty-four available each way/
toteplacepot positions in the last
ten years, including nine winners.
Horses carrying 9-2 or more
have won two renewals, whilst
just three of the other forty-two
representatives have finished in
the frame.
Effects of the draw:
2007: 23-28-26-1 (33 ran—gd-sft)
2006: 29-32-11-20 (31 ran—gd to
soft)
2005: 28-1-4-11 (34 ran—gd to
soft)
2004: 18-12-32-19 (34 ran—soft)
2003: 36-18-12-19 (36 ran—gd to
firm)
2002: 36-35-29-1 (36 ran—good)
2001: 32-19-31-30 (31 ran—gd to
soft)
2000: 18-6-20-21 (33 ran—gd to
soft)
1999: 17-19-21-15 (32 ran—good)
1998: 19-22-18-4 (29 ran—good)
1997: 6-15-24-16 (31 ran—good)
Jockey Club Cup (3YO+--two miles)
Prices of win and placed horses
(beaten favourites in brackets):
2007: 2/1*—3/1—14/1
2006: 6/5*—9/1
2005: 20/1—16/1—11/10*
2004: 7/2**--20/1—66/1 (7/2
beaten joint favourite—N.
Henderson)
2003: 5/2—15/8*
2002: 9/2—6/4*--7/1
2001: 9/1—2/1*
2000: 7/1—11/2—5/1 (4/1 beaten
favourite—L. Cumani)
1999: 11/4 (8/11 beaten favourite—
J. Fanshawe)
1998: 7/2—5/1 (2/1 beaten
favourite—B. Hills)
1997: 10/1—11/4 (5/2 beaten
favourite—E. Dunlop)
Vintage performances:
3YO: 2 Winners @ 9/1 & 2/1*—2
placed—9 unplaced
4YO: 2 Winners @ 7/2 & 11/4—4
placed—17 unplaced
5YO: 1 Winner @ 10/1—2 placed—
11 unplaced
6YO+: 6 Winners @ 20/1—7/1—9/2—
7/2**—5/2—6/5*—7 placed—20
unplaced
Selected trainer stats:D. Elsworth:
3 Winners (all Persian Punch):
7/1—9/2—5/2 (& 1 placed horse)
J. Dunlop: 1 Winner & 7/2—3
Placed horses
Mrs A. Perrett: 2 Placed horses
J. Fanshawe: 1 Winner @ 7/2—1
Placed horse
M. Johnston: 2 Placed horses
Effects of the draw:
2007: 10-7-4 (8 ran—gd to soft)
2006: 3-2 (7 ran—gd to soft)
2005: 8-9-6 (10 ran—gd to soft)
2004: 6-9-14 (11 ran—soft)
2003: 6-3 (6 ran—gd to firm)
2002: 2-3-5 (8 ran—good)
2001: 5-2 (7 ran—gd to soft)
2000: 3-4-5 (9 ran—gd to soft)
1999: 1 (3 ran—soft)
1998: 2-6 (7 ran—good)
1997: 1-4 (7 ran—gd to firm)
2007 Stats for Champions Day:
B Hills: 1 winner (20/1)—1 placed
horse (9/1)—4 unplaced runners
A. O’Brien: 1 winner (10/1)—1
placed horse (5/1)—2 unplaced
runners
A.J. Martin: 1 winner (14/1)
J-C. Rouget: 1 winner (7/2)
A. Fabre: 1 winner (2/1)
J. Bolger: 1 winner (6/4)
Saeed Bin Suroor: 1 winner (12/1)
& three unplaced runners
Trainers who saddled placed
horses in ‘double figures’ to realise
decent each way profits:
N. Henderson: (33/1)
R. Hannon: (25/1)
John Queally: (25/1)
R. Fisher: (20/1)
B. Meehan: (14/1)
E. Vaughan: (14/1)
R. Gibson: (12/1)Tote v SP returns
(£1.00 stake)Collective tote
returns: £83.80
S.P: £70.00
19.7% advantage via ‘the machine’.
Racing Ahead 47

Super stats
Conduit won the St Leger
for Sir Michael Stoute but
it’s his juveniles that are
worthy of note in October
Stoute stars as
season ends
This is the time of year when trainers become anxious for winners,
potentially trying to ‘fill their boxes’ for the winter leading into
the next season.
These are the stats for 25 selected trainers relating to the month
of October last year. The list is compiled in percentage order rather
than the number of winners trained.
Two-year-olds: Three-year-olds:
Sir Michael Stoute (12/32) M. Bell (4/12)
J. Noseda (5/19) Saeed Bin Suroor (8/26)
H. Cecil (4/17) H. Cecil (3/14)
Saeed Bin Suroor (7/32) L. Cumani (5/25)
M. Jarvis (7/34) J. Gosden (5/27)
J. Gosden (5/25) W. Haggas (3/18)
R. Charlton (6/34) J. Dunlop (3/19)
R. Beckett (4/27) J. Noseda (3/19)
P. Cole (3/20) J. Fanshawe (3/20)
K. Ryan (6/44) A. Balding (2/13)
M. Johnston (12/101) K.R. Burke (2/17)
P. Chapple-Hyam (3/25) P. Cole (1/9)
A. Balding (2/17) P. Chapple-Hyam (1/10)
B. Meehan (7/69) M. Channon (3/32)
M. Bell (3/31) Sir M. Stoute (2/23)
M. Channon (6/68) M. Johnston (2/25)
B. Hills (5/55) R. Hannon (3/42)
R. Fahey (3/33) M. Jarvis (1/15)
W. Haggas (2/23) K. Ryan (1/17)
J. Dunlop (2/26) B. Hills (1/27)
L. Cumani (1/15) B. Meehan (0/6)
J. Fanshawe (1/15) R. Charlton (0/8)
R. Hannon (5/94) R. Beckett (0/12)
H. Morrison (1/25) H. Morrison (0/16)
K.R. Burke (0/22) R. Fahey (0/18)
Top five trainers collectively (two and three-year-old results
in October 2007)
Saeed Bin Surror (15/58—25.9%)
Sir M. Stoute (14/55—25.5%)
H. Cecil (7/31—22.6%)
J. Noseda (8/38—21.0%)
J. Gosden (10/52—19.2%)
48 Racing Ahead

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On the exchanges
Peter Webb with the second part of his article on making
a profit from in-running play on football matches
Get ready to make
your move when
a goal goes in
Last month we
looked at how a
football match was
‘constructed’. We
learned that on average
around 2.60 goals were
scored during an average
match and this meant that
a goal to either side would
significantly influence the
outcome. By backing a team
and anticipating a goal you
can profit from the significant
move when a goals is scored
and the odds move in
response. The winner isn’t
important in this case just
who scores first.
You can do all sorts of clever
things based around when a
goal is scored. Laying the draw
allows you the possibility of
benefiting regardless of who
scores first and trading the
over and under goal market’s
extends this benefit further by
allowing you to profit even if
you get the first goal wrong.
Beyond those realms using
the time in between goals
allows to profit even if there is
no goal.
Overall, there are a huge
number of ways to profit
from the in play phase of the
football match.
One nagging doubt remains
on all these strategies though
and that is how many goals are
going to be scored?
Fortunately help is at hand
and things are not nearly as
complicated as they would first
seem.
To answer the question of
how many goals are scored
before a match starts with a
relatively minor question of
judgement. When I was on
my quest to win the football
pools I quickly realised that
the number of goals per match
actually fell into a very narrow
range.
It is this very narrow
range that determines odd
compilations. For many years
bookmakers have used this
expected number of goals to
create a price for a market
but this tactic is perfectly
within reach of most ordinary
punters.
When you look at a football
league table you will quickly
see that teams are pretty much
sorted into their ability to
score goals.
Teams at the top of league
score more than those at the
bottom; that is just plain
common sense.
If they didn’t score more
then they wouldn’t be at the
top of the league! But a lot
more information is contained
in that league table, their
relative scoring ability at
home, away and on average. If
you track the number of goals
per match over the season
you will see that it ‘gravitates’
to this magical 2.60 goals per
match number.
While writing this article we
are only three matches into
the season and we are already
at 2.72 goals on average per
match.
One caveat you should be
aware of is that different
leagues tend to offer slightly
different variables to this
number.
If you sort the league table
by goals scored and the
propensity to concede you can
very quickly work out certain
combinations that lead to
more or less goals.
Even without doing that it’s
quite easy to
“Teams at the top score
more, that’s just plain
old common sense”
summarise
just using
plain old logic
and intuition.
A top team
playing a
team in the
lower part of the division is
more likely to be a higher
scoring match, as is the
opposing situation, though
less so due to home advantage.
The games that tend to
generate the least number of
goals are where two closely
matched teams play each other
but the away team is above
the home team in the, league
effectively cancelling out home
advantage.
When I say league table be
careful, as lack of games played
It’s often tight when
the big clubs meet
can distort the table. Where
this happens, simply look
at the goals scored by both
teams and compare that to
the average in the league. This
will allow you to work out the
‘true’ position of the team.
All that is very logical and
sensible but in order to really
benefit from this knowledge
you need to some clear facts.
What does “More goals” and
50 Racing Ahead

“Less goals” mean? The answer
may surprise you.
On average just over 50% of
matches end up in 2.40-2.70
goal range in all matches. So,
surprisingly, if you price in
your estimate of 2.40-2.70
goals in a match you will be
Bet Angel is the premier trading
software for Betfair. For more details,
click the Bet Angel link at Racing
Ahead website www.racingahead.net
correct the majority of the
time.
If you get a top versus
bottom scenario then you
simply shift up the number of
expected goals and vice versa.
For a benchmark, if you
look at last season you can
get a better understanding.
Man Utd vs Reading, Fulham
or Derby would see you price
in 3.1, 3.2 and 3.4 goals
respectively.
Look though at Chelsea
versus Man Utd and the
market has priced in only 2.3
goals.
If you want to plumb even
lower goal scenarios you would
need to look at extremely
‘tight’ matches.
Liverpool versus Chelsea
in the semi-final of the
champion’s league threw
up one of the lowest goal
expectations last season of
just 2.1 goals. How do these
scenarios affect the odds?
You can clearly see from the
Liverpool vs. Chelsea match
that as you approach two goals
you are effectively pricing in a
draw.
This is because two goals in
a tight match divided between
two teams are quite likely to
manifest itself as one goal a
piece.
Therefore the price of the
draw will shorten quite a bit
in these and similar cases. It’s
not coincidence that the most
common score is 1-1.
Looking at the other end
of the market, when you
approach three goals or more,
the opposite happens.
This is quite logical when
you think about it. Two teams
can’t divide three goals equally
and therefore if three goals
are scored on average then the
price of the draw will have to
lengthen. When you break it
down to its component parts it
all makes sense!
Now you have the goals
that are expected on average
you will quickly realise they
significantly influence all the
other markets offered on
football matches as well.
There is actually a huge
amount of depth and detail
you can go into but you don’t
really need to do any research
as that is why we created
Soccer Mystic.
It distils the knowledge and
effort I put in over many years
and scales to some easy to use
tools.
All of these will allow you to
model each match to see how
goals, or lack of them, affect
the odds in a match across all
the available markets.
It can do this before the
match has stared and even
when the match is being
played.
Look at the illustration of
our over and under chart,
generated on Soccer Mystic.
It was a for a match where
there were expected to be few
goals.
You can see that if we laid
under 2.5 goals, even if there
are two goals the chance of
the odds moving into a loss
making position can only
occur if a goal is the first goal
is scored before 39 minutes or
two goals before 74 minutes.
Anything else and we could
trade out for a profit at any
point. Soccer Mystic has
already worked out how many
goals are likely in this match
and done the exact maths for
us.
Each match is unique but the
software can model them all in
a number of ways.
Of course, all this is talking
about how many goals, on
average, there should be.
Once the match is underway
you may want to change
you mind, but using what
rationale?
I can answer that question as
well and that is what we shall
look at next month.
Special offer
For a limited time only we
are giving away Soccer Mystic
for free when you subscribe to
Bet Angel.
If you are quick you can now
get two very powerful pieces of
software for the price of one!
Racing Ahead 51

Racing Life
Shaun Brand prepares to Carry On through the recession as
his new charge shows promise at Musselburgh
Pegasus can give
us wings through
a difficult time
Iam just listening to the
news as I write this and
the top story is another
airline going bust, it’s
certainly not getting any easier
for everyone out there and I
would expect a few racing clubs
be struggling too.
It’s important to do your
sums and notover stretch the
budgets with too many horses.
In my opinion, the survivors
will be the top echelon of very
rich owners, the frugal and us
canny Scots.
We constantly hear of the
government bailing out the
banks, I can only hope the
BHB will act quickly to help the
poorer owners and clubs get
through what looks like grim
times ahead.
While searching on the
internet, I discovered a very
worrying bit of information,
suggesting that 28% of what
owners spend on their horses is
recouped through prize money.
If you consider that some
races are worth over £100,000
then the true figure for the
owners racing for smaller
“Mondrianus finished
sixth with a good
look in his eye”
prizes is a lot less than that
28%! I think to make sure
racing stays competitive, the
big players should have to give
back more than at present and
I would firmly agree that every
race should be worth at least
£15,000.
That would secure owners
and racing club’s futures in the
sport, although I’m not sure
how realistic my wishes are.
Now I have had my moan, let’s
get on to the horses!
We went to
Musselburgh,
having entered
our recently
aquired Pegasus
Mondrianus
in the 3.20
handicap.
When we got
to the course and entered the
Owners and Trainers car park
we were, along with other
owners, turned away and sent
to the public one.
As it is one of the perks of
Carry On Racing was pleased with
Pegasus Mondrianus (red and
yellow colours) run at Musselburgh
ownership, , a few expressed
their dissatisfaction, but we got
to there in plenty of time and
that was the main thing.
It was a wet and windy day but
Pegasus ran well and although
he only finished sixth, he stayed
on nicely towards the end.
Susan Bradburne (the trainer)
said “he had a good look in his
eye after the race”.
He will now go back to
hurdles and race at about 2m4f
Panther ready to pounce for its members
PANTHER Racing was set up in
1995 by Anne Cairns but before
that she was founding and
managing racehorse syndicates
for several trainers.
To date, there have been
many syndicates in 20-plus
different training yards and
many household names.
The new Panther Racing Club
will offer members the chance
to be involved with some top
class horses and all ownership
benefits are available, like prize
money, owners’ badges for the
racetrack and stable visits.
You can get a 16 page brochure
free of charge by getting in touch
with Anne on 01642 472043
or 077757 43885. It details in
full, all the horses, trainers and
advantages of joining the club.
Panther Racing has three
trainers at the moment, James
Ewart, Chris Grant and Alan
Swinbank and seven National
Hunt horses with more to come
Tom’s Toybox
for the flat with Alan. There is
also a racing information service
— The Central Line — and a list
of all the recommended bets
will be sent with the booklet.
The horses are mostly young
but experienced.
Laertes won the £25,000
Highland National last
season and
Touchwood
is still
improving.
Tom’s
Toybox
(pictured
winning at
Aintree) last
season is only six but has now
won four chases.
There are also three young
French horses as well as a
bumper horse who came
second, 24 lengths clear. The
oldest horse is Minster Shadow
who is nine and the winner of
his last two chases.
The club operates no expensive
premium rate services for
information on the horses or
for the Central Line. Telephone
calls are at local rate only.
Cost is £199 for 12 months’
membership. They also offer
individual shares in some of the
horses.
52 Racing Ahead

or slightly further which should
get him closer to winning his
next race.
It was a good day despite the
initial hiccups with the parking
and Musselburgh redeem itself
well with a mobile zoo, which
was great entertainment for
the kids.
Getting back to the club, to
keep up the trend of affordable
ownership, we have decided to
offer a no frills Exclusive 300
membership for just £500.
This gives you all the 300
benefits except the Towerform
ratings. To take advantage of
this great offer and for terms
and conditions, contact us at
Carry On Racing, our details
are listed below. Finally we are
having an open day at Lucy
Normile yard on the 28th of
September.
Give us a ring if you would
like to go and we will give you
all the information you need to
get there and we will also enter
you into a prize draw to win a
bottle of champagne.
So come and see Carry On
with Pride and have a look
around Lucy and Alan Normile’s
great stable.
Please contact us on the office
number 07020 985 986 or our
mobile 0798 3559143. You
can also email us at Shaun@
carryonracing.com and ask for
either myself or Laura.
Let us know how you get on!
If you would like Racing Ahead
magazine to feature an update on
your syndicate or you have an open
day planned, email us on
anne@racingahead.net
Photograph by Mike Bishop
We are always pleased to hear from you.
Syndicate updates
Running Dragon
Racing fired up for
new jumps season
MARTIN Llewelyn is the man
behind Running Dragon Racing
based at Penbiddle Farm in
Abergavenny.
He is a passionate supporter
of the sport and of getting
people involved.
He said: “You You need to make
an honest assessment of the
animals’ abilities and enter it
where it’s got a chance. I don’t
agree with entering a horse just
for the sake of a day out.”
It’s a policy that has stood
him in good stead and he enjoys
the support of his trainer, Nikki
Evans whose stable on the
Deva Racing buys at
the St Leger sales
DEVA Racing has purchased
two impressive looking horses
from the prestigious Doncaster
St. Leger Yearling sales.
They are now making the
shares available in the yearling
colt by Champion sire
Kyllachy.
The horse was bred by the
National Stud in Newmarket.
A 1/12th share costs £1,799
and the monthly training fees
are fixed at £225.
There are also 1/12th shares
available in a speedy yearling
by Orpen who will be aimed at
the Chester May meeting in
2009. Shares in the Orpen colt
cost £1,999.
As part of being an
owner with you will
benefit from regular
stable visits, free
racecourse owners
badges and will
share in any prize
money.
Mike Foster, the Racing
Manager from Deva Racing
said: “Our bloodstock agent
Johnny McKeever did
exceptionally well in obtaining
two very nice colts at prices
owners will be delighted with.
The Kyllachy colt is a classy
Welsh border is a small and
friendly set-up.
Leasing the horses allows
the syndicate to get top quality
animals without having to
put the sales money up front,
making it more affordable.
One of their syndicates is full,
but they have shares in two
other horses available and are
looking to get a yearling colt
in the October sales.
If you would like to find out
more about Running Dragon
Racing you can reach Martin
on 07774781672 or by email on
info@runningdragonracing.co.uk
looking individual and it is a
privilege for Deva Racing to
have a horse bred by our
National Stud. The Orpen colt is
an early type and we have the
prestigious Chester May
meeting in mind for him.”
Deva Racing offers racing
enthusiasts an opportunity to
purchase shares in exciting
racehorses based at Michael
Owen’s fantastic Manor House
Stables.
The horses will be trained by
the successful handler Nicky
Vaughan.
Contact Mike Foster for more
details on 07515 772696 or
01829 771781. You can also
email info@devaracing.co.uk
Deva Racing’s Orpen colt
Racing Ahead 53

FANTASTIC COMPETITION!
FIVE MEMBERSHIPS TO CARRY
ON RACING UP FOR GRABS
Enter our competition to win a membership to the Carry On Racing club run by Shaun and
As a member of the
£99 Carry On Racing
Club you can enjoy a
You will have access
to the Carry On
Racing website
for all updates about
Carry On Racing
will organise regular
get togethers at race
meetings and there
will be stable visits
with fellow Carry On
There is a nonpremium
rate
phoneline updated
with information
about all Carry On
Racing’s horses and
other runners when
They pride
themselves in
providing a personal
and family friendly
You are not just a
Be a part of it with Carry On Racing!
Photographer: Mike Bishop
our trainer at the racecourse to meet club members and give that
To be in with a chance of winning just answer this question:
What position did Carry On Racing horse Pegasus
Please send your entry to:
Entries must be with us by October 25, 2008

Marketplace
Advertise on this page for as little as £75! Phone Graham on
0845 638 0704 or email him on graham@racingahead.net
Running
Dragon Racing
We currently have shares available
in two horses and offer 5% lease
ownership with full share of prize
money - no deductions.
We also offer a replacement if your
horse is out of training even for
a short period. Telephone for an
informal chat or to arrange a stable
visit. We are registered with the
British Horseracing Authorities
Telephone Martin on:
07774 781672 or
07870 830027
Email us at info@
runningdragonracing.co.uk
www.runningdragonracing.co.uk
LET’S LIVE
RACING
VISIT US AT WWW.LETSLIVERACING.COM
OR TELEPHONE MARK BALL ON :
01691 653 269 OR 07702 895428
EMAIL: LETSLIVERACING@AOL.COM
Box Clever
with Boxform
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MOORCROFT CHARITY RACEDAY AT PLUMPTON ON OCTOBER 20
Rub shoulders with
racing’s big names
PLUMPTON Racecourse stages its
ninth annual fund raising raceday
on Monday, October 20 in aid of
the Moorcroft Racehorse Welfare
Centre.
The Moorcroft Racehorse
Welfare Centre is nestled in
the heart of the glorious Sussex
Weald country, and is one of
three BHA accredited racehorse
rehabilitation centres in the UK.
Moorcroft Raceday at
Plumpton has already raised
over £300,000, with organisers
hoping for a record year in 2008.
The day features a parade of
a number of Moorcroft inmates.
The horses will be ridden by
Olympic medallist Tina Cook
and Richard Dunwoody (former
champion jump jockey).
The event is also well supported
by many prominent racing
VIPs who attend the Moorcroft
Marquee Lunch and Auction with
a number of exciting “money
can’t buy” lots on offer. These
include a Christmas Carol
Concert at Le Manoir Aux Quat
Saisons with dinner and overnight
stay.
There’s an original painting by
Neil Cawthorne, titled “First Time
Around”, and two tickets for the
hit musical “Oliver” in the dress
circle with an overnight stay for
two in the Mayfair Hotel and
dinner in the Amber Restaurant.
Tattersalls auctioneer Harry
Fowler, who is used to selling
millionaire blue-blooded
yearlings, will be persuading
guests to purchase these fabulous
prizes.
To rub shoulders with many
of racing’s prominent owners
and trainers, tickets for the
Moorcroft Marquee Package
can be purchased for £80
per person from the Plumpton
Racecourse office by calling
01273 890383.
Richard Dunwoody
will be at Plumpton
Racing Ahead 55

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2 Racing Ahead

Sports betting
Malcolm Boyle with his lowdown on the live Premier League
matches on the satellite channels in the coming weeks
First goal the winner
for Premier teams
The first 29 matches of the
Premiership season confirmed
that the vast majority of games
are dictated by the team that
scores the opening goal of the
contest.
Some 27 matches produced
goals, whereby 22 of the teams
that scored first went on to win
their respective games.
All 14 teams that led at half
time secured three points and
if you have ever placed a bet on
the ‘first goalscorer’ market you
might like to think again, as
twenty-seven different scorers
ensured that no single player was
worth following!
Sunday 5th October:
West Ham v Bolton
(7 matches—4-2-1 G/D: 12-6)
West Ham’s new manager
should have settled in by now, and
their supporters will be expecting
three points from this match,
irrespective of how the results
have gone leading into the game.
West Ham have long since been
admired for their free-flowing
football, though Bolton are likely
to offer tough resistance from a
rearguard perspective. The home
team to snare a narrow victory is
the call.
Sunday 5th October:
Everton v Newcastle
(15 matches—8-3-4 G/D: 21-15)
These are tough times for both
teams for different reasons,
though off the field activity is
at least partly responsible for
whichever side loses this match
if a winner emerges from what
is likely to be a dour struggle
given the nerves which will be
transparent from the first whistle.
An ‘honours even’ prediction is
offered in the circumstances.
Spurs’ new boy
Roman Pavlyuchenko
Saturday 18th October:
Middlesbrough v Chelsea
(13 matches—5-3-5 G/D: 11-10)
Middlesbrough can beat any
team in the land, but Chelsea
have the psychological edge
over many opponents now, just
as Manchester United have
held down the years, alongside
Arsenal to a fashion. Boro have
nothing to lose in this encounter
given that neutral viewers will
expect a Chelsea victory, though
this ‘written off’ factor could be
Middlesbrough’s biggest asset.
Middlesbrough to avoid defeat is
the speculative call.
Sunday 19th October:
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham supporters can be
a mean bunch when the going
gets tough, and having earned
their draw at Stamford Bridge,
supporters of the away side will
feel they simply have to turn
up to see their team collect
all three points. Stoke saw off
Villa in front of their own fans
however, and Tottenham are a
similar opponents. Tottenham
should have learned from Villa’s
mistakes however, and an away
win is on the cards.
Saturday 25th October:
Sunderland v Newcastle
(7 matches—0-3-4 G/D: 6-12)
Roy Keane was never one
to shirk responsibility in big
matches, and the Sunderland
manager will relish the visit of
Newcastle, especially if the ‘Toon
Army’ continue to play like a
boys brigade outfit. Sunderland
supporters to earn ‘bragging
rights’ this side of Christmas is
the prediction.
Sunday 26th October:
Chelsea v Liverpool
(16 matches—11-4-1 G/D: 25-6)
Put simply, Liverpool have to
get something out of this game
if they are to have any chance
of mounting a Premiership
challenge this season. Liverpool
scored just three goals when
gaining four points last year
against the other teams that
make up the ‘big four’, and
unless ‘Rafa’ changes his ways,
the Premiership will continue to
elude Liverpool. Home win.
Sunday 26th October:
West Ham v Arsenal
(13 matches—2-5-6 G/D: 8-16)
West Ham remain the only
Premiership team to have won
at the Emirates but their record
against Arsenal at home is not so
impressive, albeit the Hammers
invariable offer plenty of
resistance before going under. A
similar outcome is expected this
time around.
Tuesday 28th October:
Stoke v Sunderland
Not too many neutrals will
tune into this I’ll wager, though
I’ll use this privileged position
to demand bookmakers offer an
interesting and value for money
wager. Given a neutral stance, is
a potential punter more likely to
invest in a 1-0 score-line if either
team can win by that margin? As
an example, layers might offer the
score-line at 6/1 for each team
to win by the said margin. The
odds equate to a coupled price
(either team to win 1-0) to 5/2.
Given decent advertising at their
disposal, bookmakers might find
themselves inundated with bets
if they dared to offer 3/1.
Wednesday 29th October:
Arsenal v Tottenham
(16 matches—9-6-1 G/D: 24-11)
Not too many neutral
fans watching this match by
comparison, and Tottenham will
be desperate to get something out
of the game. Theo Walcott might
have gained enough confidence
by now to take the Tottenham
defence apart, which an amateur
team could manage on a good
day. Tottenham must hope for
plenty of luck in running to even
obtain a point, but how much
luck does a team deserve when
it sells their best two forward
players? Tottenham have not
won at Arsenal since 1993.
Racing Ahead 57

Sports betting
Steve Hughes takes a look at rugby union’s own Champions
League and thinks the title is heading to the south of Ireland
Make it a Munster
munch as Ireland
can take the cup
Rugby Union’s answer
to the Champions
League begins this
month and defending
champions Munster have a
great chance of being crowned
European champions for the
third time in four years.
The team are rated
number one in Europe for
their performances in this
competition and the Magners
League over the past four years
and it’s easy to see why.
No team is more formidable
on home territory than Munster
who have made Thormond Park
a fortress down the years.
Home form is important with
a group stage against three other
teams – if a club can win their
home games they stand a great
chance of making the knockout
Frederick
Michelak
stage. Munster face Sale plus
the French sides Clermont
Auvergne and Montauban
in their pool. French teams
can struggle away from the
comforts of home so Munster
should have the measure of
them.
“They are rated
number one and it’s
easy to see why”
Sale is likely to provide the
stiffest opposition in this pool
but it would be a surprise if
Munster did not qualify as
group winners.
Munster have an array of star
players with the Irish half-back
combination of Ronan O’Gara
and Peter Stringer plus their
captain Paul O’Connell who has
been one of the finest forwards
in world rugby for years.
They also boast one of the
best wingers in the world in All
Black Doug Howlett.
Apart from established
players, Munster
has a potential
star in 20-yearold
centre Keith
Earls who scored
a hat-trick of
tries against the
Dragons in the
Magners League.
It’s only a matter of time
before he’s playing for his
country.
Toulouse, runners-up to
Munster last season, are
favourites for the tournament
this time.
The French side have All Black
scrum-half Bryan Kelleher
and mercurial French fly-half
Frederick Michalak to control
the game.
Winger Vincent Clerc will be
familiar to Irish fans having
scored for France against
Ireland.
Toulose should have little
trouble topping their group
where bath are likely to be the
strongest opposition.
England’s best chance of glory
in the competition could be
Guinness Premiership winners
Wasps but the London club
have a tricky pool with Magners
League holders Leinster and
Munster’s Ronan O’Gara
Racing Ahead

“Australia are so far ahead it
will take a superhuman effort
to get close to stopping them”
Edinburgh who are coached
by former England boss Andy
Robinson.
Wasps should be good enough
to get through the group but
they may struggle against the
likes of Munster and Toulouse.
RUGBY LEAGUE WORLD CUP
AUSTRALIA have been world
champions at rugby league
since 1975 and that is not
going to change when they host
the World Cup which begins on
October 25.
It may not be the most
original selection you will ever
see but it’s pointless opposing
the best team in the world.
The World Cup in rugby league
started in 1954 but, unlike its
rugby union namesake, it has
struggled to maintain a place
on the sporting calendar.
The last World Cup took place
in 2000 with Australia beating
New Zealand 40-12 in the
final.
That was Australia’s ninth
World Cup in 12 events. Great
Britain is the only other nation
to lift the trophy and you have
to go back to 1972 for the last
time that happened.
This year, Great Britain is
split between England, Ireland
and Scotland (who beat Wales
to qualify for the finals of the
tournament).
England hold the strongest
chance of any of the home
nations as they comprise most
of the Great Britain team
that beat New Zealand 3-0 in
the Test series between the
countries last year.
Former Leeds boss Tony
Smith has done a good job at
the helm of Great Britain and
now England.
There’s a good balance
between experience and youth
with the likes of captain Jamie
Peacock and St Helens prop and
Man of Steel contender James
Graham at either end of the
spectrum.
Possibly the biggest rivals to
Australia will be New Zealand.
The Kiwis have Brent Webb and
Thomas Leuluai from Leeds and
Wigan respectively while the
rest of the squad is made up of
players who ply their trade in
the NRL.
They could push the Aussies
but it would be a shock for the
home side to fall short.
While it’s a World Cup in
name, Australia are so far ahead
of the opposition that it would
take an near superhuman effort
for any of the other countries to
stop them, especially on home
soil.
Coach Ricky Stuart has picked
10 players from Melbourne
Storm who won the NRL last
season. Among them are Billy
Slater, Greg Inglis and Israel
Folau.
Stuart can also call upon the
world-class hooker Cameron
Smith and stand-off Darren
Lockyer (below), arguably the
best player of his generation.
This is the centenary year of
rugby league in Australia and
the Kangaroos should crown
with a tenth world title.
Racing Ahead 59

Racing Fixtures
OCTOBER
1 Wed *Kempton, Newcastle,
Nottingham, Salisbury
2 Thu Ayr, Goodwood, Newmarket,
*Great Leighs
3 Fri Hexham, Lingfield, Newmarket,
*Wolverhampton
4 Sat Fontwell, Kempton, Newmarket,
Redcar, *Wolverhampton
5 Sun Huntingdon, Kelso, Uttoxeter
6 Mon Pontefract, Warwick, Windsor
7 Tue Catterick, Folkestone, Leicester
8 Wed Exeter, *Kempton, Nottingham,
Towcester
9 Thu Newbury, Wincanton, Worcester,
*Great Leighs
10 Fri Ayr, Carlisle, Lingfield,
*Wolverhampton
11 Sat Ascot, Bangor, Chepstow,
Musselburgh, Hexham, *Wolverhampton
12 Sun Bath, Goodwood, Great Leighs
13 Mon Kempton, Windsor,
Wolverhampton
14 Tue Huntingdon, Leicester, Newcastle
15 Wed *Kempton, Lingfield, Uttoxeter,
Wetherby
16 Thu Brighton, Ludlow, Nottingham,
*Great Leighs
17 Fri Cheltenham, *Kempton,
Newmarket, Redcar
18 Sat Catterick, Cheltenham, Kelso,
Newmarket, *Wolverhampton
19 Sun Fontwell, Kempton, Southwell
20 Mon Plumpton, Pontefract, Windsor
21 Tue Exeter, Lingfield, Yarmouth
22 Wed Bath, *Kempton, Worcester, Great
Leighs
23 Thu Brighton, Carlisle, Ludlow, *Great
Leighs
24 Fri Ayr, Doncaster, Fakenham,
*Wolverhampton
25 Sat Chepstow, Doncaster, Aintree,
Newbury, Stratford, *Wolverhampton
26 Sun Aintree, Towcester, Wincanton
27 Mon Kempton, Leicester, Lingfield
28 Tue Catterick, Southwell, Yarmouth
29 Wed Huntingdon, *Kempton,
Nottingham, Great Leighs
30 Thu Lingfield, Newcastle, Stratford,
*Great Leighs
31 Fri Newmarket, Uttoxeter, Wetherby,
*Wolverhampton
NOVEMBER
1 Sat Ascot, Ayr, Newmarket,
Wetherby, *Great Leighs
2 Sun Carlisle, Huntingdon,
Southwell
3 Mon Plumpton, Warwick,
Wolverhampton
4 Tue Catterick, Exeter, Southwell
5 Wed Chepstow, Huntingdon,
*Kempton, Nottingham
6 Thu Haydock, Lingfield,
Towcester, *Great Leighs
7 Fri Musselburgh, Fontwell,
Hexham, *Wolverhampton
8 Sat Doncaster, Kelso, Sandown,
Wincanton, *Wolverhampton
9 Sun Hereford, Kempton, Market
Rasen
10 Mon Carlisle, Southwell,
Wolverhampton
11 Tue Exeter, Lingfield, Sedgefield
12 Wed Bangor, Kempton, Southwell,
*Wolverhampton
13 Thu Lingfield, Ludlow, Taunton,
*Great Leighs
14 Fri Cheltenham, *Kempton,
Newcastle, Southwell
15 Sat Cheltenham, Uttoxeter,
Wetherby, *Wolverhampton, Great
Leighs
16 Sun Cheltenham, Fontwell,
Stratford
17 Mon Kempton, Leicester,
Wolverhampton
18 Tue Fakenham, Folkestone,
Southwell
19 Wed Hexham, *Kempton, Lingfield,
Warwick
20 Thu Hereford, Market Rasen,
Wincanton, *Great Leighs
21 Fri Ascot, Exeter, Kelso, *Wolver
22 Sat Ascot, Haydock, Huntingdon,
Lingfield, *Wolverhampton
23 Sun Aintree, Plumpton, Towcester
24 Mon Ayr, Lingfield, Ludlow
25 Tue Lingfield, Sedgefield,
Southwell
26 Wed Chepstow, Kempton,
Wetherby, *Wolverhampton
27 Thu Newbury, Taunton, Uttoxeter,
*Great Leighs
28 Fri Musselburgh, *Kempton,
Lingfield, Newbury
29 Sat Kempton, Newbury,
Newcastle, Towcester,
*Wolverhampton
30 Sun Carlisle, Kempton, Leicester
DECEMBER
1 Mon Fakenham, Folkestone,
Wolverhampton
2 Tue Hereford, Lingfield, Southwell
3 Wed Ayr, Catterick, *Kempton,
Plumpton
4 Thu Leicester, Market Rasen,
Wincanton, *Great Leighs
5 Fri Exeter, Lingfield, Sandown,
*Wolverhampton
6 Sat Chepstow, Sandown,
Wetherby, *Wolver, Great Leighs
7 Sun Kelso, Lingfield, Warwick
8 Mon Musselburgh, Lingfield,
Wolverhampton
9 Tue Fontwell, Sedgefield,
Southwell
10 Wed Hexham, *Kempton,
Leicester, Southwell
11 Thu Huntingdon, Ludlow,
Taunton, *Great Leighs
12 Fri Cheltenham, Doncaster,
Southwell, *Wolverhampton
13 Sat Cheltenham, Doncaster,
Lingfield, Southwell,
*Wolverhampton
14 Sun Musselburgh, Lingfield
15 Mon Ayr, Plumpton,
Wolverhampton
16 Tue Catterick, Folkestone,
Southwell
17 Wed Bangor, *Kempton, Lingfield,
Newbury
18 Thu Exeter, Ludlow, Southwell,
*Great Leighs
19 Fri Ascot, Southwell, Uttoxeter,
*Wolv
20 Sat Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield,
Newcastle, *Wolverhampton
21 Sun Carlisle, Great Leighs
22 Mon Hereford, Kempton, Lingfield
23 Tue Fontwell, Southwell
26 Fri Huntingdon, Kempton,
Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Towcester,
Wetherby, Wincanton, Wolverhampton
27 Sat Chepstow, Kempton,
Southwell, Wetherby, *Great Leighs
28 Sun Catterick, Leicester, Lingfield
29 Mon Musselburgh, Newbury, Gt
Leighs
30 Tue Haydock, Lingfield, Taunton,
*Wolverhampton
31 Wed Lingfield, Uttoxeter, Warwick
November’s Racing Ahead is in all good
newsagents on Thursday, October 30
60 Racing Ahead

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TheRUGBYPaper
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Gatland
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But New Zealander Gatland,
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“If there’s a chance to
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The pair have a superb
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£8,500 Profit in August
Since it’s first advert last month, “The Curse of the Handicapper System
went on to make a profit of £8,500 in August to £100 lays.
Some system writers just
cannot get it right and others
have the Midas touch.
Paul Fowlie is in the latter
group, all his ideas have
turned into regular profits.
His new Curse of the
Handicapper System is his
most profitable yet with
over £50,000 profit so far
this year. If you are not
using any of Paul Fowlie's
methods read everything
below and be prepared for
your betting to be transformed.
We have previously sold
two systems from Paul
Fowlie, "Lay The Place" and
"Stat Attack". Before I tell
you about "The Curse Of
The Handicapper System" I
must tell you about an independent
web site called
www.onlinebettingexposed.
co.uk. This site has recently
reviewed Paul's first two
laying systems,
Independent Review from
onlinebettingexposed.com
Stat
Attack
Read the full reviews on
their site..
Lay The Place
Now let me tell you about
this new system for laying
horses. Paul Fowlie has the
knack of spotting the obvious.
This is no doubt
helped by the fact he lives
and breathes horse racing.
In this new system he has
identified a dilemma that
handicappers face everyday,
a dilemma that leads
to errors in pricing horses.
The system has made over
£46,000 so far this year by
exploiting this false pricing.
This system, as with Paul's
other systems, is simplicity
itself. Selections can be
identified as quickly as you
can read down a racecard
and bets can be placed at
any time.
All profits
quoted for
this system
are based on
laying to
£100. Betfair
commission
has been taken off so just
£95 is claimed for each
winning bet. The highest
price you will ever lay at is
11/2 but the average lay is
just 9/4.
Using a Betfair telephone
betting account the system
can be used without a computer.
In the past those
using a Betfair telephone
betting account had to bet
a minimum of £50. This
has been reduced to just
£2. . Betfair bets can be
placed at anytime and
there is no need to follow
racing live.
There are quite a lot of bets
but to win £13,000 - as the
system did in June - and
with each winning bet
bringing in just £95, you
need this number of bets.
(8-14 a day). Do not think
that this number of bets
makes the system slow to
operate, you can find all
the qualifiers in a few minutes.
Everyone will make
exactly the same selections
as the system is crystal
clear.
You require no special
newspaper to operate it.
There is no staking system
or chasing losses.
The Curse of the Handicapper
can be read and understood
in minutes and
comes with every result for
this year, all winners and
all losers.
There is little else to say,
with this method you are
buying a proven method
from an author with a
proven track record.
This method is competitively
priced at just £75.
This price seems ridiculously
low for a system that
has averaged £200 a day
profit this year.
The reviewed systems, “Stat
Attack” and “Lay The
Place”, are also available
and priced at £75.

THE FINEST
COVERAGE OF
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SEASON
EXPERT ANALYSIS AND
OPINION
THE CHAMPIONS
THE FUTURE STARS
THE ISSUES
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