National exposé is not a balanced view: MPC

More documents

Recommendations

Info

30 The Manitoba Co-operator | December 13, 2012 WEATHER VANE I F T H E C R O W F L I E S L O W , T H E W I N D S W I L L B L O W . I F T H E C R O W F L I E S H I G H , T H E W I N D S W I L L D I E . No major storm systems expected Issued: Monday, December 10, 2012 · Covering: December 12 – December 19, 2012 Daniel Bezte Co-operator contributor Once again confidence in this forecast period is low. This time it’s due to a split in the jet stream that looks like it may prevent any big storm systems from developing. This means there will be no major systems controlling the weather during this forecast period, leaving only weak systems around. Weak systems can change intensity very quickly and can be easily pushed or moved off their forecasted tracks. The first of these systems is expected to form over northern Alberta late on Tuesday and then track southeastward and cross southern Manitoba sometime Wednesday. This system should bring light snow to most regions with only a few centimetres expected overall; a few locations may see as much as five cm. High pressure will then build in from the north, but it currently looks as if the centre of this high pressure will stay over north-central Manitoba. Weak low pressure is expected to develop to our southwest later By Daniel Bezte CO-OPERATOR CONTRIBUTOR Afew articles ago I introduced how you can create your own weather forecasts using the weather model data available on the WunderMap weather page l o c a t e d a t w w w. w u n d e r ground.com. Hopefully some of you have taken a bit of time to check it out. In this issue I would like to go into a little more detail on how to use the data available at this site to improve your forecasting skills. Before jumping into this topic I first have to discuss the snow event that hit northcentral Manitoba on Dec. 4. A strong area of low pressure moved through central Manitoba that day, bringing rain and freezing rain to southern regions and heavy snow to more northern areas. The heaviest snows fell from Norway House eastwards to the Ontario border (see this week’s snow cover map). I still haven’t heard officially, but unofficial amounts of near 90 centimetres in a 24-hour period would make this the largest one-day snowfall in Manitoba history. It’s kind of creeping me out that I had dreams of record snowfall next week. Depending on how strong the northern high is or how deep the southern low gets, southern regions could see anywhere from a mix of sun and clouds along with some light flurries to total sunshine and cold temperatures. Over the weekend the southern low will likely pull off to the east, with the northern high following it. Another area of weak high pressure will build in to replace these two systems, resulting in partly to mainly sunny skies along with seasonable temperatures. Next week looks to be a repeat of this week as high pressure once again builds to our north, while low pressure develops to our southwest. It currently looks like the northern high will win out, keeping us mostly dry for at least the first half of the week and temperatures once again on the seasonable side. Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -17 to -3 C; lows, -28 to -11 C. Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at daniel@bezte.ca. and we have now seen two significant snowfall events, and it isn’t even the middle of December! The accompanying table lists some of the unofficial snowfall totals from this storm. OK, now on to our continued look at using the Weather Underground to help you create your own weather forecasts. For those of you who didn’t read the previous article or haven’t checked out the website, here is how you locate the correct web page. First, go to www.wunderground.com, then click on the Maps and Radar tab near the top of the page. From the drop-down list select WunderMaps. When this page loads it should automatically be focused on the part of the world where you live. For those of you who have used Google Maps or Google Earth, then you will recognize how to navigate around the map. Some of you might notice this page has changed a bit as they have updated it over the last couple of weeks. To successfully use this page you’ll need to zoom out so you can see most of Canada and the United States. You then want to go to the right-hand side of the page and, using the Map WEATHER MAP - WESTERN CANADA Weather now for next week. Get the Manitoba Co-operator mobile app and get local or national forecast info. Download the free app at agreader.ca/mbc This map is created by Environment Canada, but I do a fair bit of tidying up of the data displayed to make it easier to read. The data on the map should be seen as giving you a general idea of how much snow there is across the Prairies. This is especially true for western Alberta into B.C., where snowfall data from Environment Canada is usually very difficult to interpret. It has been awhile since there has been this much snow this early in the year. Looking back over the last five to 10 years I couldn’t find a map from early December that showed over 75 centimetres of snow anywhere on the Prairies this early in the winter season. Creating your own forecast, Part 2 Strong agreement between WunderMaps’ models translate to confidence in a forecast Layers, unclick the Weather Stations and Radar layers, then click on the Model Data layer. You then need to click on the little blue gear symbol to open up the display options for the weather models. You can play around with different ways to move from day to day, but I find it easiest to use a couple of shortcut keys. Hitting the letters D and A on your keyboard will jump you forward and backward by 24 hours. The letters L and J will move you forward and backward one model time frame. This is every three hours for the first seven days, then every 12 hours to day 16 (at least for the GFS model). In agreement The weather model I start with is the GFS model, and the first piece of information I like to look at is the MSL map, which shows you pressure patterns and precipitation amounts. If you mouse over the word “Map Type” it will tell you more details about the map you are viewing. Once I’ve gone through these maps I then switch to the ECMWF model and do the same thing. What we are looking for is to see how closely the two different weather THE DEC. 4 SNOWSTORM Location Snowfall (cm) Norway House 60-90 Gods Lake Narrows 60-90 Island Lake 60 Oxford House 45 Cross Lake 30-40 Gillam 35 Grand Rapids 30 The Pas 30 Mafeking 23 models agree on what will happen. The closer they are to each other the more confidence we have in the forecast. The other thing you need to do to create a reliable forecast is to check the weather models over several model runs to see if they are in agreement. T h e G F S m o d e l re c re - ates its maps every six hours based on the latest data. The ECMWF does this every 12 hours. If the information or forecasts the models have created is changing significantly every model run, then confidence in the forecast is not that high. The more you watch what these models do, the better you will get at doing this. Once you have a good idea of what the general weather pattern will be over whatever time period you chose, you can now use some of the other pages to get more details. The 2mAG map type will show surface temperatures. Just remember that when you look at this data, the time shown at the top of the page is in GMT. To convert this to CST, subtract six hours. This map is colour coded, with the temperature scale shown on the bottom of the page. The other map I find useful is the Wind map type. This map uses colour shading to show wind speed and streamlines to show the wind direction. Wind speeds are in knots and if you want to do a quick conversion to kilometres per hour, then multiply the values shown on the map by two (it’s actually 1.8, but two is a heck of a lot easier to do). The stream lines can be a little tough to see, but if you look closely you will be able to see the arrows indicating the direction of airflow. So if you haven’t tried to create your own forecast, I recommend you do. At least then you will have no one to blame for a bad forecast but yourself!
The Manitoba Co-operator | December 13, 2012 31 BRIEFS FCC honours women in agriculture Nominations close Jan. 15 FCC RELEASE / Farm Credit Canada (FCC) is seeking nominations for the 2013 FCC Rosemary Davis Award, which recognizes and honours Canadian women for their leadership and commitment to agriculture. Individuals are encouraged to take time to recognize a woman who is making a difference in the agriculture industry. Self-nominations are also encouraged. Candidates are selected based on their demonstration of leadership — through giving back to their community and the agriculture industry — as well as their vision and passion for the industry. Since 2006, FCC has honoured 30 outstanding women with the Rosemary Davis Award. Winners will be announced in March 2013. They will have the opportunity to attend the Simmons School of Management Leadership Conference in Boston on April 2, 2013. “By attending this conference, winners of the award will have the unique opportunity to network and share knowledge,” says Kellie Garrett, senior vice-president, strategy, knowledge and reputation at FCC. “They will also have the chance to hear from some of the most respected women in the world who, just like them, decided to make a difference in their communities and the global village.” FCC Rosemary Davis winners must be 21 years of age or older and actively involved in Canadian agriculture. Entries will only be received online at www.fccrose marydavisaward.ca. First shipload of CWB canola heads to Japan WINNIPEG / REUTERS CWB has made its first overseas shipment of canola, marking the former monopoly grain marketer’s diversification into additional crops. The 42,000-tonne shipload of canola is en route to Japan. The CWB said it bought the canola from grain companies and farmers on the cash market, as well as through its pooling program for farmers. CWB is a buyer of wheat, barley and canola and now competes with grain companies such as Viterra and Richardson International. NOTHING LIKE A SNOW BATH Two stallions enjoying a mild day in the Turtle Mountains east of Goodlands, Man. PHOTO: SHARLENE BENNIE Calling all backyard weather watchers... We need YOU! Are you interested in weather? Measure precipitation in your own backyard — volunteer with CoCoRaHS! Join the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network and help the Province of Manitoba with flood forecasting by becoming a volunteer observer today! It’s easy and fun! To learn more or to become a volunteer observer, please visit our website at: www.cocorahs.org Email us at: canada@cocorahs.org Funding for CoCoRaHS provided by
Page 1 and 2: DECEMBER 13, 2012 SERVING MANITOBA
Page 3 and 4: The Manitoba Co-operator | December
Page 25 and 26: :17.4” The Manitoba Co-operator |
Page 29: The Manitoba Co-operator | December

National exposé is not a balanced view: MPC

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?